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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Eastern Region (R9) Changes to predicted available habitat for the five warm water fishes under a moderate warming scenario vary significantly. Two were predicted to increase by 468 to 973 percent two were predicted to remain about the same, and one was predicted to decline by 79 percent. These results indicate that cold and cool water fish on the CNNF are very vulnerable to moderate and major warming. Such warming could cause large declines in these fish, which could substantially impact stream ecology throughout the CNNF. The predicted fish distributions for the current climate and moderate warming were analyzed to determine the percent change in cold and cool water fish habitat in each HUC-6 on the CNNF. These results were used to place each watershed into one of four vulnerability classes. The most vulnerable HUC-6s are those predicted to contain a substantial amount of habitat under the current climate but which also had substantial declines in predicted habitat with moderate warming. The least vulnerable HUC-6s are primarily those with little or no predicted habitat given the existing climate. The increase of 0.8 o C for each 1.0 o C increase in air temperature used by Lyons et al. (2010) in their study was an oversimplification necessitated by the statewide study that did not take into account how groundwater input, land uses, or changes in flow might alter the response of streams to air temperature increases. Composite Watershed Vulnerability Watersheds with very low composite vulnerability were exclusively or predominantly groundwater recharge zones. These were rated very low because they support low densities of the water resource values (wetlands, stream crossings, cold and cool water stream fisheries). They also contain highly permeable soils, in which adverse effects to groundwater recharge from climate changes are least likely. The vulnerability of other watersheds depended on the combined occurrence of wetlands, runoff potential, road-stream crossing density, and the presence of cold and cool water fisheries. As the occurrence of these attributes increased, so did overall watershed vulnerability to climate changes. RECOMMENDATIONS Wetlands There is a need to conduct much more comprehensive wetland modeling with downscaled data from additional GCMs, scenarios, and locations to verify and refine the preliminary results described above. Modeling should also be conducted for a variety of bogs with different wetland and contributing watershed areas. Other wetland types, including vernal ponds, fens, and weak fens, should be modeled and evaluated for their vulnerability to climate change. Existing mapping that includes wetland units, such as Wisconsin Wetland Inventory, WISCLAND and Forest Service stand inventory, is inadequate to fully evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on wetlands because it does not adequately characterize water source and flow regimes. In addition, this mapping frequently does not include vernal ponds, does not incorporate watershed divides through wetlands, and may have inaccuracies due to limited field verification. National Forest ecological land type inventory mapping provides the most accurate information, but is limited to areas within the National Forest boundary. Wetland inventories and mapping should be upgraded as soon as to solve these shortcomings and to allow more accurate determination of wetland vulnerability to climate change. 262 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Eastern Region (R9) If the above recommendations are completed, the results should be used to identify and develop more specific adaptations to minimize the impact of climate change on wetlands. Groundwater Recharge More comprehensive soil water balance modeling should be conducted with downscaled data from additional GCMs, scenarios, and locations to verify and refine the preliminary results described above. These results could then be incorporated into groundwater flow modeling to predict effects on aquifers, groundwater flow paths, and surface waters dependent on groundwater flow. Once such groundwater modeling is completed, the results need to be evaluated with regard to potential effects on important groundwater-dependent resources such as cold water streams, wetland fens, groundwater-fed lakes, and water supply wells. Use the results from the above activities to identify and develop more specific actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change on watersheds and water resources. Infrastructure-Culverts There is a need to conduct hydrologic modeling using the WICCI downscaled daily precipitation data and a variety of watershed conditions to more accurately determine potential increases in flood flows associated with the projected changes in future climate. The CNNF should support such work to the extent practicable. The CNNF should conduct additional analyses of culverts. The evaluation should determine where sizing to bankfull channel width will adequately adapt to climate change and also assess aquatic organism passage and channel morphology. The CNNF should continue to size stream crossing structures using stream simulation guidelines. Structures should be sized to at least match minimum bankfull width and pass the 100-year and preferably 500-yr flood with the HW/D
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Page 216 and 217: Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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