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Ouachita National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southern Region (R8) Scenario 2010 Current 2010 Mngt resp* 2040 B1 2040 B1 Mngt resp 2080 B1 2080 B1 Mngt resp 234 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change 2040 A1B 2040 A1B Mngt resp 2080 A1B Risk High 88 82 93 85 93 85 105 96 105 96 Moderate 46 40 42 43 42 43 44 43 45 43 Low 56 68 55 62 55 62 41 51 40 51 *Mngt resp – responsible management that brings roads and trail up to FS standards APPLICATION 2080 A1B Mngt resp This project is applicable at the sixth-level subwatershed scale. Conceivably, it is applicable at the fourth and fifth level scales as well. However, the risk levels would have to be reevaluated at the fourth-level basin scale. The information exists for application across the south – many forests have established aquatic thresholds by ecoregion. It is also applicable on the project level when used at the subwatershed scale. CRITIQUE What important questions were not considered? • This approach uses thresholds for fish. Other aquatic biota such as mussels are more sensitive to changes in sediment. • This particular exercise did not include water yield and regimen which could easily provide additional stress to aquatic biota. • The analysis is based on averages. Extreme events such as droughts or floods which would modify aquatic and riparian habitats were not taken into account. What were the most useful data sources? • TNC climate wizard − user friendly − multiple scenarios with multiple GCMs • WEPP climate generator − Individual sites are easily modified − A national application for the lower 48 states What were the most important data deficiencies? • The USLE R-factor. Given more time or knowledge, I would have recalculated those values. This was the weakest part of the analysis. What tools were most useful? • TNC climate wizard • WEPP climate generator • ArcView and ArcMap
Ouachita National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southern Region (R8) PROJECT CONTACT Alan Clingenpeel Ouachita National Forest (501) 321-5246 aclingenpeel@fs.fed.us REFERENCES Dissmeyer, G.E., and G.R. Foster. 1984. A guide for predicting sheet and rill erosion on forestland. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Publ. R8-TP 6. 40. EWAP. 2000. http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5291793.pdf. Phillips, D.L., D. White, and C.B. Johnson. 1993. Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the United States. Land Degradation and Rehabilitation 4: 61-72. Roehl, J. W. 1962. Sediment source areas, delivery ratios, and influencing morphological factors. IASH Comm of Land Eros, Pub 59:202-213. USDA Forest Service. 1999. Ozark-Ouachita Highlands Assessment: aquatic conditions. Report 3 of 5. GTR SRS-33. Asheville, NC: USDA, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 317 p. WEPP. 1999. http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/fswepp/docs/fsweppdoc.html 235 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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