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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerability to Climate Change Ouachita National Forest March, 2012 Prepared by: J. Alan Clingenpeel Forest Hydrologist Ouachita National Forest Hot Springs, Arkansas 226 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Ouachita National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southern Region (R8) FOREST CONTEXT The Ouachita National Forest covers over 1.7 million acres in western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma, and is located within the Southern Region (R8) of the USFS. The forest is primarily composed of shortleaf pine and hardwoods and is largely within the Ouachita Mountain Ecoregion with some ownership in the Arkansas Valley and Mid Coastal Plains - Western Ecoregion. The Ouachita Mountains form the backbone of the forest with an east-west orientation. Weather patterns for the Ouachita Mountains in Arkansas and Oklahoma are characterized by a temperate climate due to its location in the center of the North American continent. Air masses that move across the national forest generally originate from the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Western United States, the Gulf of Mexico, and Canada. The sources of moisture for the region are the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. Because of the general circulation characteristics of the atmosphere, weather systems generally move from west to east across the Ouachita Mountains (USDA Forest Service, 1999). Mean annual precipitation ranges from 39.4 inches per year (Fort Smith, AR) in the northwestern area of the forest to 55.5 inches per year (Hot Springs, AR) in the southeastern areas of the forest. Corresponding surface runoff values range from 14 to 22 inches per year. PARTNERS The forest was fortunate in that a subwatershed analysis was recently completed with the Travel Management Project. In addition, the climate change study included consultations with Bill Elliot (Rocky Mountain Research Station), Dan Marion (Southern Research Station), and Steve McNulty (Southern Research Station). Data for climate scenarios was taken from the TNC Climate Wizard website (http://www.climatewizard.org/). 227 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Page 180 and 181: Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
Page 190 and 191: Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Page 216 and 217: Umatilla National Forest Watershed
Page 232 and 233: Ouachita National Forest Watershed
Page 242 and 243: Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
Page 272 and 273: Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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