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Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) better protect our precious water resources. The Forest needs to share results and develop educational tools to show how large scale climate information can be used at smaller scales and what new challenges and opportunities exist. LESSONS LEARNED • Scale Matters • Simplify Assessments − Focus on “processes” related to key values − Identify, locate and prioritize solutions based on these same key processes and potential effects. • Synthesis is key and most challenging − Seek assistance and involve critical thinkers! PROJECT TEAM • Tyler Putt, GIS Specialist, Shasta Trinity National Forest • Lois Shoemaker, Fire Ecologist, Shasta Trinity National Forest • Ralph Martinez, GIS Specialist, Plumas National Forest • Brenda Olson, Biologist Fish and Wildlife Service • Michael Wopat, Engineering Geologist, California Geological Survey • Sherry Mitchell Bruker, Hydrologist, Lassen National Forest The above individuals provided many reference resources and participated in initial brainstorming processes or development of data layers and critical reviews that helped to guide this project. Ken Roby, Lassen National Forest and USFS Stream Systems Technology Center (retired) provided advice during the analysis, and edited the draft report. Dr Lee Benda of Earth Systems Institute provided solar exposure to stream dataset products from the Net Map Model. We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. REFERENCES Aguado, E., D. R. Cayan, L. G. Riddle, and M. Roos. 1992. Climatic fluctuations and the timing of West Coast streamflow. J. Climate, 5, 1468–1483. Bailey. 1994. Hierarchy of Ecoregions at a Range of Scales. Bakke, Jostein; Lie, Øivind; Heegaard, Einar; Dokken, Trond Martin; Haug, Gerald; Birks, Hilary H; Dulski, Peter; Nilsen, Trygve. 2009. Rapid oceanic and atmospheric changes during the Younger Dryas cold period. Nature Geoscience 2, s. 202-205. (html) 206 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Benda, L., Miller, D. J., Andras, K., Bigelow, P., Reeves, G., and Michael, D. 2007. NetMap: A new tool in support of watershed science and resource management, Forest Sci., 52, 206–219, Caissie, D. 2006. The thermal regime of rivers: a review. Freshwater Biology 51:1389–1406. Cayan DR, Kammerdiener S, Dettinger MD, Caprio JM, Peterson DH. 2001. Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82(3):399–415 Crozier, L. G., and R. W. Zabel. 2006. Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon. Journal of Animal Ecology 75:1100–1109. Daly, Christopher. 2010. PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate mapping system, PRISM Climate Group director. http://prism.oregonstate.edu/ Dettinger, M. D. and D. R. Cayan. 1995. Large-scale atmospheric forcing of recent trends toward early snowmelt runoff in California. J. of Climate, 8, 606-623. Fausch, K. D., Y. Taniguchi, S. Nakano, G. D. Grossman, and C. R. Townsend. 2001. Flood disturbance regimes influence rainbow trout invasion success among five holarctic regions, Ecol. Appl., 11, 1438-1455. Hamlet, A. F., P. W. Mote, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States, J. Clim., 18, 4545 4561. Isaak, D.I, Luce, C.H, Rieman, B.E, Nagel, D.E., Peterson, E.E, Horan, D.L., Parkes, S., and Chandler, G.L 2010. Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network. Ecological Applications, 20(5), 2010, pp. 1350–137. Isaak, D. J.; Thurow, R. F.; Rieman, B. E.; Dunham, J. B. 2007. Relative roles of habitat size, connectivity, and quality on Chinook salmon use of spawning patches. Ecological Applications. 17: 352- 364. Liang, X., D. P. Lettenmaier, E. F. Wood, and S. J. Burges. 1994. A simple hydrologically based model of land-surface water and energy fluxes for general-circulation models, J. Geophys. Res.- Atmospheres, 99, 14415-14428. Liang, X., E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1996. Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-‐2L model: Evaluation and modification, Global Planet. Change, 13, 195–206. Luce, C. H., and Z. A. Holden. 2009. Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948–2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L16401, doi:10.1029/2009GL039407. Luo, L. F., and E. F. Wood. 2007. Monitoring and predicting the 2007 U.S. drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 6. Maurer, E. P., L. Brekke, T. Pruitt, and P. B. Duffy. 2007. 'Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies', Eos Trans. AGU, 88(47), 504. "bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections derived from CMIP3 data and served at: http://gdodcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/, described by Maurer et al (2007)." 207 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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