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Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Figure 16. Ranking of watershed sensitivity based on snow dominated runoff processes. Higher numerical scores represent higher percentage of the watershed with snow. Combining Values, Exposure (Stressor) and Sensitivity A rating of each element (resource value, exposure, and sensitivity) was derived for each watershed, and these scores divided into fifths to obtain relative ratings of 1-5, based solely on values on the Shasta Trinity National Forest. They do not represent ecological thresholds. A “one” represents the lowest value (or stressor). A “five” corresponds to the highest value (or stressor). Each of the ratings is the combination of several elements. For example, the aquatic features resource combined information on both springs and lakes (see Table 3). The scores were then added together using the weighted average approach from the WVA (USDA 2011) to obtain a total “resource value” score, a total “exposure” score and a total sensitivity score. The process of combining two data sets into one combined ranking is displayed by using both Table 3 and Figure 17. For example, the final “value score” in Table 3 (6 th column from the left) is multiplied by 10. Refer next to the matrix (Figure 17) to find the intersection of this “resource value” score (10 to 50) and the corresponding “exposure” score (1 to 5); this intersection (labeled from Low to High) represents the combined “value/exposure” ranking. Again, a “low” combined score is represented by the number 1, up 200 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) to “high” as a 5. The process is repeated, merging this new combined data set with the sensitivity ranking. This is done to produce an overall score of vulnerability that includes values, stressors, and sensitivity. Subbasins Drying Lake Density Rank Spring Density Rank Aquatic Features Susceptible to Loss from Drying Values at Risk Exposure Sum of Values Weighted Value (Sum- Min/Max- Min) 1 Value Score Matrix Value Score = Value x 10 NetMap Thermal Exposure Rank 2030 A2 Global Climate Model Rank 201 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change Sum of Exposure Weighted Exposure (Sum-Min /Max-Min) Exposure Score Combined Value & Exposure Cottonwood 1 2 3 0.1 1 10 1 1 2 0.3 2 1 Cow 4 5 9 0.9 5 50 1 1 0.0 1 3 Lower Pit River 3 2 5 0.4 2 20 5 5 10 1.0 5 4 McCloud 1 4 5 0.4 2 20 4 5 9 0.9 5 4 Sacramento Headwaters 2 5 7 0.6 4 40 2 4 6 0.5 3 4 Sacramento/ Clear 4 1 5 0.4 2 20 1 5 6 0.5 3 2 Shasta 5 5 10 1.0 5 50 4 4 0.8 4 5 South Fork Trinity River 2 3 5 0.4 2 20 3 3 6 0.5 3 2 Trinity 3 3 6 0.5 3 30 2 4 6 0.5 3 3 Table 3. Combining multiple attributes into final scores (sample table) High Exposure Low Rank 5 4 3 2 1 Rank High 50 H H H MH M 50 High 40 H H MH M ML 40 30 MH MH M ML ML 30 20 MH M ML L L 20 Low 10 M ML L L L 10 Low Rank 5 4 3 2 1 Rank High Exposure Low Values Figure 17. Example of matrix used to combine resource and sensitivity (stressor) ratings. Results shown in pink received overall rating of “5”; those in light blue received a rating of “1”. Value Exposure Score 2 It is important to note that this very simplistic model has many limitations. Other factors and more refined datasets could be employed to improve this model. The results presented are a first cut at identifying and analyzing factors that can be considered in evaluating watershed vulnerability to climate change. 1 This calculation is based on the weighted average approach used in the Watershed Vulnerability Assessment. Technical Guide USDA 2011. ( 5= >0.8, 4=0.6 to 0.8, 3= 0.4 to 0.6, 2=0.2 to 0.4 and 1 =
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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