watervulnerability

Sawtooth National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Intermountain Region (R4)
APPLICATION
The results from this analysis can be applied to the following four main areas.
Monitoring – Continue to expand our summer stream temperature monitoring and establish year-round
monitoring sites in select subwatersheds that are projected to have temperature increases by 2040 and in
higher elevation subwatersheds that are projected to have minimum temperature increase. Continue to
monitor management activities that reduce stream shading and baseflows. Consider establishing stream
channel/riparian monitoring sites in subwatersheds projected to see winter peak flow increases. Partner
with other agencies and groups in these efforts.
Watershed Aquatic Recovery Strategy (WARS) – Re-examine restoration priorities in the Forest’s
WARS strategy to determine if designated high-priority subwatersheds should remain the focus of
restoration. Within these and other priority subwatersheds, determine where infrastructure replacements
or restoration can be most meaningful (i.e., improving riparian condition, streams flows, culvert barriers,
etc.) to increase aquatic species and watershed resiliency.
Education – Share results and develop educational tools to show how large-scale climate information can
be used at smaller scales and what new challenges/opportunities exist.
Improve Coordination - Forests are critical sources of water and habitat, but resource availability and
conditions are changing, causing more uncertainty. Engage with communities and other agencies in
adaptation strategies.
CRITIQUE
What important questions were not considered? – I would have liked to complete an evaluation on
what climate will mean to fire severity and intensity in the Upper Salmon. Then see what cumulative
impacts this would have had with other risks/threats. I would have also wanted to look at summer
baseflow changes and water diversion closer.
What were the most useful data sources? – By far the most important data sources for climate change
predictions were local water temperature thermographs, weather stations, and USGS stream gauges used
to construct the stream temperature model. The VIC model was essential for predicting changes in stream
flow. Information on existing watershed and fish population condition and management threats was also
critical to evaluate extinction risks to bull trout.
What were the most important data deficiencies? – Many landscapes have some natural buffering
capacity that will help minimize some climate change effects. We lacked information on groundwater,
local air temperature data to determine which subwatersheds have the coldest summer temperatures, and
water temperature data from high mountain lakes and streams that could have helped to evaluate this
buffering capacity.
What tools were most useful? – Bayesian belief networks were essential to evaluate the interaction of
numerous variables and outcomes for baseline, risk/threats, ecological departure, and population
extinction risks. Rocky Mountain Research Station stream temperature and VIC models were critical in
looking at future climate change risks.
What tools were most problematic? – The VIC model outputs were challenging to interpret. How much
of an increase or decrease in flows was too much? How much change needed to occur before it would
180 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change