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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Intermountain Region (R4) WATER RESOURCE VALUES Columbia River Bull Trout • Threatened Species under Endangered Species Act since1998 • Sawtooth NF Management Indicator Species • More specific habitat requirements than other salmonids • Associated with the coldest streams; upper tolerance limits appear to be 12-15°C • Climate change could lead to smaller and more isolated habitat patches and the loss of local populations in the Upper Salmon. • Embryos and juveniles are vulnerable to channel scour associated with the rain-on-snow events and winter peak flows. Infrastructure • Roads, campgrounds, water diversions, bridges, etc., with poor drainage or in riparian areas will be at increased risk from rain-on-snow events and winter peak flows. Water Resource Indicators Value Infrastructure Recreation Sites (Campgrounds) Water Diversions System Roads and Trails Private Ownership Projected Hydrologic Changes Rain-on-Snow Events Increased Winter Peak Flows Aquatics Bull Trout Rain-on-Snow Events Increased Winter Peak Flows Lower Summer Base Flows Increased Summer Water Temps Table 1. Water resource values, indicators, and analysis tools WATERSHED SENSITIVITY 160 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change Analysis Tools Potential Impacts VIC – Winter 95 (# of days in the winter in which flows are among the highest 5% for year) VIC – Winter 95 VIC – MeanSummer (Mean flow during June 1 to September 30) Stream Temperature Model (Summer Maximum Weekly Temperature) Flood Damage Egg and Juvenile Scour Habitat Reduction Habitat Fragmentation Watershed sensitivity includes natural risks from increased sediment, debris flows, and landslides to fish populations. The following factors were considered. Subwatershed Vulnerability - Percent of a subwatershed with sensitive land types (e.g., inherent surface soil erosion, sediment yield, and mass stability) (Figure 2). Landslide Prone Terrain – Included are areas with a tendency for rapid soil mass movements typified by shallow, non-cohesive soils on slopes with shallow translational planar landsliding phenomena are
Sawtooth National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Intermountain Region (R4) controlled by shallow groundwater flow convergence. Also included are landforms with slow soil mass movements with deep earth-flows and rotational slumps, snow avalanche and rock fall areas (Figure 3). Figure 2. Subwatershed vulnerability within the Upper Salmon subbasin on the Sawtooth NRA. Red areas have high risk, yellow have moderate risk and green have low risk of surface erosion. WATERSHED CONDITION Watershed condition was determined using the "Matrix of Pathways and Indicators" and Bayesian belief networks. The "Matrix of Pathways and Indicators" has been a consultation requirement for species listed under the Endangered Species Act since the late 1990’s. Baseline information was already organized and summarized by the matrix according to important environmental parameters for each subwatershed within the Upper Salmon subbasin within Sawtooth NRA. This matrix was divided into six overall pathways: -- Water Quality -- Channel Condition and Dynamics -- Habitat Access -- Flow/Hydrology -- Habitat Elements -- Watershed Conditions Each of the above pathways is further broken down into watershed condition indicators (WCIs). WCIs are described in terms of functionality (Appropriate {FA}, At Risk {FR}, and At Unacceptable Risk {FUR}). The Functioning Appropriately column represents the desired condition to strive toward for each particular WCI. The current condition of each WCI is represented as falling within its respective functionality class (Figure 5). The units of measure for WCIs are generally reported in one of two ways: (1) quantitative metrics that have associated numeric values (e.g., “large woody debris: > 20 pieces per mile”); or (2) qualitative descriptions based on field reviews, professional judgment, etc. (e.g., “physical barriers: man-made barriers present”). The suite of relevant WCIs, considered together, encompasses the environmental baseline or current condition for the subwatershed and associated aquatic resources. Bayesian belief networks (Lee and Rieman, 1997) were used to evaluate relative differences in predicted physical baseline outcomes. They are appealing because their basic structure (a box-and-arrow diagram 161 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change Figure 3. Landslide-prone terrain within the Upper Salmon sub-basin on the Sawtooth NRA. Red areas have high risk, yellow have moderate risk, and green have low risk of landslides
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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