watervulnerability

Coconino National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southwest Region (R3)
INTRODUCTION
This report presents the results of a Watershed Vulnerability Assessment (WVA) conducted on the
Coconino National Forest (CNF) during 2010 and 2011. The Forest is located in Arizona in the Southwest
Region (R3) of the USFS. The CNF volunteered to participate in a collaborative project between USFS
and FS Research to develop processes to assess watershed climate vulnerability.
The objective of the assessment was to evaluate the relative vulnerabilities of watersheds to hydrologic
changes that could result from a changing climate.
The pilot assessment process employed a very simple model of vulnerability, based on the combination of
values at risk, the sensitivity of those values to change, and the potential for exposure. The model is
illustrated in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Conceptual Model for Assessing Watershed Vulnerability
The pilot team also established a step-wise approach to the vulnerability assessment. The process is
patterned after Watershed Analysis (USDA, 1994). The organization of this report follows the WVA
process steps, which are as follows.
• Step 1 - Establish the Scope and Water Resource Values that Will Drive the Assessment
• Step 2 - Assess Exposure
• Step 3 - Assess Watershed Sensitivity and Watershed Condition
• Step 4 - Evaluate and Categorize Vulnerability
• Step 5 - Response and Recommendations for Making WVA Useful for Managers
• Step 6 - Critique the Vulnerability Assessment
STEP 1 - Establish the Scope and Water Resource Values that Will Drive the Assessment
Five fifth-field watersheds on the Forest were selected for analysis. These watersheds were selected
because they support most of the aquatic resource values on the Forest. The watersheds are listed in Table
1, and displayed in Figure 2.
131 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change