watervulnerability
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watervulnerability

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watershed
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White River National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Rocky Mountain Region (R2) Figure 2. Possible air temperature changes predicted from down-scaled global circulation models for the Colorado River basin (Christensen and Lettenmaier 2006) Figure 3 shows predicted changes in precipitation relative to the long-term historical record. Given the variability of the predictions, no consistent trend in annual precipitation is evident. However, other research has shown that shifts in the type of precipitation (primarily snow to rain) and shifts in the seasonal distribution are likely (Ray et al. 2008). 116 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change

White River National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Rocky Mountain Region (R2) Figure 3. Possible changes in annual precipitation predicted from down-scaled global circulation models for the Colorado River basin (Christensen and Lettenmaier 2006) Regarding precipitation, of particular interest is the change in snowpack with elevation. Figure 4 shows results from Christensen and Lettenmaier (2006), which suggest that snowpacks are expected to decline at elevations below about 8,500 feet. In western Colorado, the current transition from a rain-snow dominated precipitation regime to a snow-dominated regime occurs at around 7,500 feet elevation. This transition elevation is expected to rise with time and emissions. For this analysis, we considered the elevation band from 7,500 to 8,500 feet elevation to include snowpack at risk. That is, we expect more of the precipitation to occur as rainfall, as opposed to snow, which would affect both the timing and magnitude of streamflow. 117 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change

White River National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Rocky Mountain Region (R2)<br />

Figure 2. Possible air temperature changes predicted from down-scaled global circulation models for the Colorado<br />

River basin (Christensen and Lettenmaier 2006)<br />

Figure 3 shows predicted changes in precipitation relative to the long-term historical record. Given the<br />

variability of the predictions, no consistent trend in annual precipitation is evident. However, other<br />

research has shown that shifts in the type of precipitation (primarily snow to rain) and shifts in the<br />

seasonal distribution are likely (Ray et al. 2008).<br />

116 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change

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