Research Methodology - Dr. Krishan K. Pandey
Research Methodology - Dr. Krishan K. Pandey Research Methodology - Dr. Krishan K. Pandey
Testing of Hypotheses-II 287 Table 12.1 By X 1 0 2 3 1 0 2 2 3 0 1 1 4 1 2 1 3 5 2 1 3 2 4 1 3 2 0 2 4 2 By Y 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 2 6 0 2 3 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 Sign + 0 + + – 0 + + + – + 0 + 0 + + + + – + + – + – + + – + + + (X – Y) Total Number of + signs = 20 Total Number of – signs = 6 Hence, sample size = 26 (Since there are 4 zeros in the sign row and as such four pairs are discarded, we are left with 30 – 4 = 26.) Thus the observed proportion of pluses (or successes) in the sample is = 20/26 = 0.7692 and the observed proportion of minuses (or failures) in the sample is = 6/26 = 0.2308. As we are to test the null hypothesis that the two archaeologists X and Y are equally good and if that is so, the number of pluses and minuses should be equal and as such p = 1/2 and q = 1/2. Hence, the standard error of proportion of successes, given the null hypothesis and the size of the sample, we have: p ⋅ q × σ prop. = = = 0. 0981 n 26 Since the alternative hypothesis is that the archaeologists X is better (or p > 1/2), we find one tailed test is appropriate. This can be indicated as under, applying normal approximation to binomial distribution in the given case: p = 1/2 1 2 Fig. 12.2 1 2 0.49 of area 0.7276 p + 2.32 ( prop) Limit (Shaded area represents rejection region) 0.01 of area
288 Research Methodology By using the table of area under normal curve, we find the appropriate z value for 0.49 of the area under normal curve and it is 2.32. Using this, we now work out the limit (on the upper side as the alternative hypothesis is of > type) of the acceptance region as under: p + 2. 32 = 0. 5 + 2. 32 0. 0981 σprop. b g = 0.5 + 0.2276 = 0.7276 and we now find the observed proportion of successes is 0.7692 and this comes in the rejection region and as such we reject the null hypothesis, at 1% level of significance, that two archaeologists X and Y are equally good. In other words, we accept the alternative hypothesis, and thus conclude that archaeologist X is better. Sign tests, as explained above, are quite simple and they can be applied in the context of both one-tailed and two-tailed tests. They are generally based on binomial distribution, but when the sample size happens to be large enough (such that n ⋅ p and n ⋅ q both happen to be greater than 5), we can as well make use of normal approximation to binomial distribution. 2. Fisher-Irwin Test Fisher-Irwin test is a distribution-free test used in testing a hypothesis concerning no difference among two sets of data. It is employed to determine whether one can reasonably assume, for example, that two supposedly different treatments are in fact different in terms of the results they produce. Suppose the management of a business unit has designed a new training programme which is now ready and as such it wishes to test its performance against that of the old training programme. For this purpose a test is performed as follows: Twelve newly selected workers are chosen for an experiment through a standard selection procedure so that we presume that they are of equal ability prior to the experiment. This group of twelve is then divided into two groups of six each, one group for each training programme. Workers are randomly assigned to the two groups. After the training is completed, all workers are given the same examination and the result is as under: Table 12.2 No. passed No. failed Total New Training (A) 5 1 6 Old Training (B) 3 3 6 Total 8 4 12 A casual look of the above result shows that the new training programme is superior. But the question arises: Is it really so? It is just possible that the difference in the result of the two groups may be due to chance factor. Such a result may occur even though the two training programmes were equally good. Then how can a decision be made? We may test the hypothesis for the purpose. The hypothesis is that the two programmes are equally good. Prior to testing, the significance level (or the α value) must be specified and supposing the management fixes 5% level for the purpose, which must invariably be respected following the test to guard against bias entering into the result and to avoid the possibility of vacillation oil the part of the decision maker. The required probability that the particular result or a better one for A Group would occur if the two training programmes were, in
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288 <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Methodology</strong><br />
By using the table of area under normal curve, we find the appropriate z value for 0.49 of the<br />
area under normal curve and it is 2.32. Using this, we now work out the limit (on the upper side as the<br />
alternative hypothesis is of > type) of the acceptance region as under:<br />
p + 2. 32 = 0. 5 + 2. 32 0. 0981<br />
σprop. b g<br />
= 0.5 + 0.2276 = 0.7276<br />
and we now find the observed proportion of successes is 0.7692 and this comes in the rejection<br />
region and as such we reject the null hypothesis, at 1% level of significance, that two archaeologists<br />
X and Y are equally good. In other words, we accept the alternative hypothesis, and thus conclude<br />
that archaeologist X is better.<br />
Sign tests, as explained above, are quite simple and they can be applied in the context of both<br />
one-tailed and two-tailed tests. They are generally based on binomial distribution, but when the<br />
sample size happens to be large enough (such that n ⋅ p and n ⋅ q both happen to be greater than 5),<br />
we can as well make use of normal approximation to binomial distribution.<br />
2. Fisher-Irwin Test<br />
Fisher-Irwin test is a distribution-free test used in testing a hypothesis concerning no difference<br />
among two sets of data. It is employed to determine whether one can reasonably assume, for example,<br />
that two supposedly different treatments are in fact different in terms of the results they produce.<br />
Suppose the management of a business unit has designed a new training programme which is now<br />
ready and as such it wishes to test its performance against that of the old training programme. For<br />
this purpose a test is performed as follows:<br />
Twelve newly selected workers are chosen for an experiment through a standard selection<br />
procedure so that we presume that they are of equal ability prior to the experiment. This group of<br />
twelve is then divided into two groups of six each, one group for each training programme. Workers<br />
are randomly assigned to the two groups. After the training is completed, all workers are given the<br />
same examination and the result is as under:<br />
Table 12.2<br />
No. passed No. failed Total<br />
New Training (A) 5 1 6<br />
Old Training (B) 3 3 6<br />
Total 8 4 12<br />
A casual look of the above result shows that the new training programme is superior. But the<br />
question arises: Is it really so? It is just possible that the difference in the result of the two groups may<br />
be due to chance factor. Such a result may occur even though the two training programmes were<br />
equally good. Then how can a decision be made? We may test the hypothesis for the purpose. The<br />
hypothesis is that the two programmes are equally good. Prior to testing, the significance level (or the<br />
α value) must be specified and supposing the management fixes 5% level for the purpose, which<br />
must invariably be respected following the test to guard against bias entering into the result and to<br />
avoid the possibility of vacillation oil the part of the decision maker. The required probability that the<br />
particular result or a better one for A Group would occur if the two training programmes were, in