Research Methodology - Dr. Krishan K. Pandey

172 Research Methodology
Thus, 90 per cent confidence interval for population mean is
X ± t
σ
= 368 ± 2 353 28 .
. . = 368 . ± 2. 353 14 .
4
s
n
= 36. 8 ± 3. 294 tons per shift.
ESTIMATING POPULATION PROPORTION
b gb g
So far as the point estimate is concerned, the sample proportion (p) of units that have a particular
characteristic is the best estimator of the population proportion bg $p and its sampling distribution, so
long as the sample is sufficiently large, approximates the normal distribution. Thus, if we take a
random sample of 50 items and find that 10 per cent of these are defective i.e., p = .10, we can use
this sample proportion (p = .10) as best estimator of the population proportion bp$ = p = . 10g.
In
case we want to construct confidence interval to estimate a population poportion, we should use the
binomial distribution with the mean of population bg μ = n⋅ p, where n = number of trials, p =
probability of a success in any of the trials and population standard deviation = npq. As the
sample size increases, the binomial distribution approaches normal distribution which we can use for
our purpose of estimating a population proportion. The mean of the sampling distribution of the
proportion of successes ( μp ) is taken as equal to p and the standard deviation for the proportion of
successes, also known as the standard error of proportion, is taken as equal to pq n . But when
population proportion is unknown, then we can estimate the population parameters by substituting the
corresponding sample statistics p and q in the formula for the standard error of proportion to obtain
the estimated standard error of the proportion as shown below:
σ p
=
Using the above estimated standard error of proportion, we can work out the confidence interval
for population proportion thus:
where
p ± z ⋅
p = sample proportion of successes;
q = 1 – p;
n = number of trials (size of the sample);
z = standard variate for given confidence level (as per normal curve area table).
pq
n
pq
n