Annex 5: United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874 (2009)

According to most analysts, the Six Party Talks are probably the only mechanism that, if
there was a desire by Pyongyang to reach a solution, could provide the means to solve it.
However, the situation has deteriorated to the point now where the Six Party Talks have
been rejected by the North. Also China may have a hard time getting the North Koreans back
to the talks. Some observers are even stating that there first has to be a fundamental change
in North Korea itself befor the Six Party Talks could resume again.
As De Ceuster and Melissen write, progress in inter-Korean affairs also hinges on a peace
treaty being signed to end formally the Korean War. Because there is an international
dimension to the termination of the Korean War, agreement on a peace regime for the
Korean Peninsula is also part of the Six-Party Talks. If and when the agenda of the Six-Party
Talks is fully realized, the geopolitical map of North-East Asia will be fundamentally
redrawn. The North Korean leadership is aware that for a small nation surrounded by big
powers, a multilateral framework may be conducive to the protection of its interests. It is
from this perspective that a continued US presence in the region is not opposed by North
Korea’s Kim Jong-Il, who sees a regional role for the United States in maintaining Korea’s
security (De Ceuster and Melissen, 2008).
Situation on the ground: North Korea’s (presumed) assets
The DPRK’s nuclear and WMD capabilities
North Korea has conducted two nuclear weapon tests. On 9 October 2006, North Korea tested
its first nuclear device at 10:35AM (local time) at Mount Mant’ap near P’unggye-ri, Kilchukun,
North Hamgyong Province. The yield from this test appeared to be less than 1 kiloton;
North Korea was reportedly expecting at least a 4 kiloton yield, possibly indicating that the
North Korean nuclear program still had a number of technical hurdles to overcome before it
had a usable warhead. In reaction to the test, the UN Security Council passed Resolution
1718 placing sanctions on North Korea. On 25 May 2009, North Korea conducted its second
nuclear test after having apparently warned the U.S. and Chinese government of their
intentions. North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency announced that Pyongyang had
carried out the nuclear test, and that it “was safely conducted on a new higher level in terms of its
explosive power and technology of its control.” Initial estimates from the US government showed
the test causing seismic activity equivalent to a magnitude of 4.7 on the Richter Scale and
located close to the site of the first nuclear test in 2006. Early estimates pointed to a possible
yield for the test of between 4 and 8 kilotons; while this is stronger than the first test, some
analysts still questions the viability of Pyongyang’s nuclear warhead design (nti.org).
So, what are the nuclear capabilities of North Korea? According to Larry A Niksch, most of North
Korea’s plutonium-based nuclear installations are located at Yongbyon, 60 miles from the
North Korean capital of Pyongyang. The key installations are as follows (Niksch, 2009):
- An atomic reactor, with a capacity of about 5 electrical megawatts that began operating by
1987. It is capable of expending enough reactor fuel to produce about 6 kilograms of
plutonium annually—enough for the manufacture of a single atomic bomb annually.
As of late 2008, North Korea had completed eight of the eleven steps of the
disablement of the reactor, including the removal of equipment from the reactor and
the blowing up of reactor’s cooling tower.
- Two larger (estimated 50 megawatts and 200 electrical megawatts) reactors under
construction at Yongbyon and Taechon since 1984.
© 2009 – Dr. D. Criekemans – Negotiations in UNSC on the continuing security provocations by North Korea 14