Annex 5: United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874 (2009)

- Scenario 2: MESSY TRANSITION
The early death or incapacitation of Kim would complicate the transition. Under this
scenario, the regime may rally around Jong-un with Jang heading a collective
leadership until the son is ready to assume power. Given his youth, inexperience and
the fact few North Koreans even know of his existence, it is hard to see Jong-un
taking over in the near future. That puts the onus on the elite to manage the
transition. The one thing they have in common is regime survival. If Kim died
suddenly, expect North Asia's financial markets to drop while world powers try to
work out who rules a state that has detonated two nuclear devices and has enough
fissile material, experts say, to make at least 5-7 more. Under this scenario, North Korea
could become even more bellicose to build internal support.
- Scenario 3: MILITARY TAKES OVER
The sudden death of Kim Jong-il could prompt a military coup. The country's recent
nuclear test, missile launches and threats of war all indicate the military has a major
say in policy. The Council on Foreign Relations, in a report in January called "Preparing
for Sudden Change in North Korea," said a military coup was possible (Stares & Wit,
2009). "Unconfirmed reports of past assassination attempts and military purges, not to
mention the apparent precautions Kim takes to ensure his personal security when traveling
around the country, all suggest that a military-led coup is quite plausible," the report said.
A coup would be bearish for financial markets given that the military is seen as a
prime backer of recent belligerence.
- Scenario 4: COLLAPSE OF THE STATE
Economic disintegration or a protracted leadership crisis could lead to North Korea's
collapse, sending millions across the border into the wealthy and more populous
South or across the more open northern border with China. For South Korea, this
would wreck its economy and create social upheaval. While many analysts believe
this scenario is unlikely, the Council of Foreign Relations report noted North Korea is a
weak state with an economy that has never recovered from a 1990s' contraction and
whose population is chronically short of food. "Under these circumstances, the
uncertainty and stress imposed by a lengthy and perhaps ultimately inconclusive leadership
struggle on the overall system of governance might prove too much," it said. South Korean
estimates have said it would cost $1 trillion or more to absorb the North. Financial
markets in Seoul would plunge given how expensive and messy such a transition
could be.
Geography and terrain
North Korea occupies some 120,540
square kilometres of land - an area
roughly five times the size of Wales - on
the northern part of the Korean peninsula.
Capital city Pyongyang is by far the
largest population centre. The total
population is about 23 million with most
major towns and cities located in coastal
lowland regions. Much of the country is
arid and mountainous, with only 16%
suitable for agriculture. The highest point
is Mount Paektu - the official birthplace of
the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.
© 2009 – Dr. D. Criekemans – Negotiations in UNSC on the continuing security provocations by North Korea 11