Jochem van Gaelen - 6000 Mw Wind at Sea - IIAS

6000 Mw Wind at Sea by 2020:
Improving government policy to better support the development of current and future
Name: J.E. van Gaelen MSc
Student nr: 5683297
offshore wind parks
Email: j.e.vangaelen@student.uva.nl
Telephone: +31 (0) 626692369
University of Amsterdam
Faculty of Behavioral and Social Sciences
MSc Thesis Political Science, International Relations
Supervisor: Dr. M. Amineh
2 nd Supervisor: Prof. J. Gupta

Table of Contents: 2
List of Figures & Tables 4
List of Abbreviations 5
Acknowledgements 6
Map of the European Union & The Netherlands 7
Chapter 1 – Introduction & Background 8
1.1 Introduction 8
1.2 Theoretical Framework 14
1.3 Methodology 19
1.4 Organization of the work 20
Chapter 2 –
Prospects for renewable energy in the EU and the Netherlands,
the role of offshore wind 21
Introduction 21
2.1 Resource Scarcity 21
2.1.1 Demand-Induced scarcity 22
2.1.2 Supply induced scarcity 26
2.1.3 Structural scarcity 31
2.2 Renewable energy (EU) 32
2.2.1 Wind energy in the EU 34
2.3 Offshore wind energy in The Netherlands 37
2.4 Climate Change 42
2.5 Conclusion 44
Chapter 3 – Offshore Wind Energy: Policy in the Netherlands
Introduction 46
3.1 – Renewable Energy in the Netherlands – “Schoon & Zuinig” 46
3.2 – Offshore Wind Energy in the Netherlands – 950 MW by 2010 50
3.3 – Wind Energy in the Netherlands – A Multi Stakeholder Approach 53
3.3.1 – Stakeholders 55
3.3.2 – Problems with government policy 58
3.4 – New policy creation for offshore wind parks 62
3.5 – Conclusions 69
Chapter 4 Technological Innovation System for Offshore Wind Energy Policy
Introduction 71
4.1 – TIS for Offshore Wind Energy Policy 71
Step 1- Define TIS in focus 72
Step 2- Actors, Networks, Institutions 72
Step 3 – Mapping the functional pattern of the TIS 73
Step 4 – Determine functionality and set process goals 80
Step 5 – Identify Inducement & Blocking mechanisms 82
Step 6 – Specify Key policy issues 85
4.2 – Conclusions 86
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Chapter 5 – Conclusions
5.1 – Conclusions & Recommendations 87
5.2 – Limitations & Suggestions for further Research 89
Bibliography & References 90
Appendix I - Overview Wbr legislation & Offshore Initiatives 94
Appendix II - Sectorakkoord Duurzame Energie
Appendix III - Transcript Interviews
Appendix IV - Estimated & Projected world population
Appendix V - Regional Production & Consumption of Oil
Appendix VI - Regional Production & Consumption of Gas
Appendix VII - Share of electricity produced from renewables in %
Appendix VIII - Growth Wind Energy Capacity in NL (MW)
Appendix IX - Conclusions Kosten-Baten Analyse 6000 MW in 2020
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List of Figure & Tables
Figures:
Figure 1.1 – Number of applications for wind parks in the North Sea 10
Figure 1.2 – TIS scheme 17
Figure 2.1 - EU Gross Inland Consumption (Energy Mix in M toe, %) – 2006 21
Figure 2.2 - Average annual growth rate of the world population, 1750 – 2050 23
Figure 2.3 - GDP growth per region, PPP per capita 24
Figure 2.4 - China’s Oil Production and Consumption, 1986-2006 26
Figure 2.5 – Oil, Proven Reserves per region 27
Figure 2.6 – Proven reserves for Gas per region 29
Figure 2.7 – Energy dependency per country, EU 2006 30
Figure 2.8 – Oil and gas reserves and expected date of exhaustion 31
Figure 2.9 - Development of primary production from renewables in EU -27 (2000-2006) 33
Figure 2.10 - Wind Energy Annual Installations 2000-2020 in EU(in GW). 34
Figure 2.11 - EU electricity from Wind up to 2030 (in GW & TWh) 35
Figure 2.12 - Development of renewable energy sources in the Netherlands by source 39
Figure 2.13 – Wind Resource Map – EU 40
Figure 2.14 – Capacity of Dutch Wind Energy by source (in MW) 40
Figure 2.15 – Monthly Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the atmosphere, 1952 – 2009 42
Figure 2.16 – Global Air temperature, 1860 – 2008 43
Figure 3.1 – Stakeholders in offshore wind energy 55
Figure 3.2 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy – Noordzeewind 58
Figure 3.3 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy - NWEA 59
Figure 3.4 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy – Natuur&Milieu 60
Figure 3.5 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy – TOW 62
Figure 4.1 – TIS Scheme 71
Figure 4.2 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy 73
Figure 4.3 – TIS for offshore wind energy policy 82
Tables :
Table 2.1 – Wind Power installed capacities in the EU at the end of 2008 36
Table 2.2 – Wind Offshore – Power installed capacity in the EU at the end of 2008 (in MW) 37
Table 2.3 – Import and Export Balance of the Dutch Energy Mix (2008) in Petajoule 38
Table 4.1 – Actors, Networks & Institutions in the TIS
Maps:
Map 1.1 – The European Union & The Netherlands 7
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List of Abbreviations:
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CO2: Carbon Dioxide
ECN: Energie Centrum Nederland
EU ETS: European Union Emissions Trading System
EU: European Union
EWEA: European Wind Energy Association
EZ: Economische Zaken (Economic Affairs)
GHG: Greenhouse Gas
IEA: International Energy Agency
IPCC: Intragovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IS: Innovation System
JI: Joint Implementation
LTO: Land- en Tuinbouw Organisatie (Agricultural Organisation)
Milieukwalitiet Elektriciteistproductio (Environment Quality Electricity
MEP:
production)
MER: Milieu Effect Rapportage (Envrironment Effect Report)
MKB: Midden Klein Bedrijf (Small & Middle sized Entrepreneurs)
MSP: Multi Stakeholder Processes
MST: Multi Stakeholder Theory
MW: Mega Watt
NGO: Non-governmental Organisation
NWEA: Nederlandse Wind Energy Associatie (Dutch Wind EnergyAssociation)
OWE: Offshore Wind Egmond aan Zee
Q7-WP: Location of Amalia Windpark off Ijmuiden, The Netherlands
SDE: Stimulering Duurzame Energie (Stimulation Sustainable Energy)
TIS: Technological Innovation System
TOW: Transitie Offshore Wind
UN: United Nations
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
V&W: Verkeer & Waterstaat (Traffic & Water)
VNO/NCW: Werkgeversbonden (Employer Unions)
Volkshuisvesting Ruimtelijke Ordening & Milieu ( Infrastructure, Spacial
VROM:
Planning & Environment )
Wbr: Wet Beheer Rijkswaterwerken (Law for exploiting government property)
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Acknowledgements
The thesis that lies before you could never have been completed without the help and effort
of several people. First, I would like to thank Dr. Amineh for guiding me through the process
from orientation towards the finished work. I owe special thanks to the interviewees at Shell,
Mr. Huub den Rooijen, mrs. Christine D’Arnaud Gerkens at Nuon and Mr. Ed Buddenbaum
at the Ministry of Economic Affairs for taking the time to talk to me on the subject and clarify
the direction I needed to take, and colleague graduates for keeping up healthy academic
competition that kept me motivated throughout the thesis.
Last but certainly not least I owe my gratitude to my girlfriend for keeping check on my
progress and helping me to keep a consistent quality in the work and my parents for the
moral support needed for graduating a second study.
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Map 1.1 – The European Union & The Netherlands
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Chapter 1 – Introduction & Background
1.1 – Introduction
This thesis will focus on offshore wind energy in the Netherlands. The Netherlands have
aligned their energy goals with the 2020 goals that have been specified by the European
Union (EU). The 2020 goals are ratified by the European Council and state that 20% of the
Europe’s energy must be from renewable sources in 2020. In 2005, 8,5% of the EU energy
came from renewable sources 1 . The Netherlands have committed to the same 20% goal by
2020, the share of renewables in the Dutch energy supply was 2,4% in 2005. Renewable
energy is won from a variety of sources, solar power, hydro-electric power, tidal power,
geothermal energy and biomass and wind power. Of these sources, wind energy is one of
the fastest growing forms of renewable energy, a trend that is expected to continue, making
wind a promising source of energy in terms of capability and further growth. The goal is to
get this percentage up by 20% in 2020, which presents an enormous challenge for the
Netherlands and the EU as a whole.
The 2020 policy and the accompanying goals are set up to effectively deal with the mayor
energy challenges that face the European Union. The challenges are climate change, the
increasing dependence on the import of energy due to the lack of internal resources, the
strain on energy resources worldwide and access to affordable, secure energy for all users;
these need to be faced in the near future. The goal of the 2020 policy is to develop a low-
energy economy, whilst making the energy sources it has more secure, competitive and
sustainable. Renewable sources of energy offer alternatives for fossil fuels and thereby
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, diversifies energy supply, reducing energy dependency
and reduces the dependency on volatile fossil fuel markets, these traits make renewable
sources of energy very well suited to deal with the energy challenges the EU faces.
The Dutch government has, in line with the 2020 goals as specified by the EU, the goal to
have one of the cleanest and most efficient energy systems of Europe by 2020. In order to
achieve this, the program “Schoon & Zuinig” is developed, which specifies the goals and
ambitions of the government in the transition to a higher share of renewable energy in the
energy mix. Schoon & Zuinig aligns itself with a reduction of greenhouse gasses and also
embodies energy efficiency and the development of renewable sources in the Dutch energy
mix.
1 EU Energy portal http://www.energy.eu/#renewable (accessed on 25-06-2009)
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The government has only a limited influence in determining the energy mix in the
Netherlands, and relies on market actors to develop the necessary technologies, invest in
alternative energy sources, and improve the energy efficiency. The task of the government is
to create the right conditions for market actors to step in. Market actors are attracted by cost-
effective projects and sound investment opportunities that renewable energy can offer, aided
by government policy to provide the necessary support. For The Netherlands, the
government cooperates with the energy sector to make a successful transition towards the
use of renewable sources like Biomass, Solar, CO2 storage and Wind energy, the most
prominent renewable energy sources for this country. These four options are the most
suitable for the Dutch geography and industry, although CO2 storage is not really renewable,
but a way to decline CO2 emissions by storing CO2 underground, thereby not dealing with the
source but with the result of the problem.
The Dutch government relies on wind energy to be the most prominent renewable energy
source that will contribute to the growth in renewable sources. Wind energy will have a
leading role in the development of a clean and efficient economy. Wind on land will be
expanded and renewed, and big plans exist for offshore wind energy wind, by doubling
capacity and creating new wind parks offshore in the Noordzee (Beurskens en Noord, 2003)
Offshore wind energy has a number of advantages compared to onshore wind facilities.
Offshore parks offer less visual intrusion and noise pollution. Therefore, wind turbines can be
larger and more productive, also because wind at sea is more constant then on land, as wind
speeds are higher and fluctuate less. The space available for the placement of wind parks is
many times larger than on land. However, investment costs are much higher for offshore
facilities, maintenance costs are higher and the technologies for offshore wind farms are
relatively new, which increases the investment and development risk. The Netherlands does
have the advantage that the North Sea is relatively shallow in the Netherlands continental
shelf (less then 50 meters), a shallow sea poses less strain on foundations for wind turbines,
thereby adding to the potential of wind energy as a large scale solution.
The goals that have been specified for offshore wind capacity is to have 450 MW of
electricity generation capacity in 2010, the next step is to grow to 6000 MW by the year 2020.
This development implies that 15% of the electricity supply of the Netherlands will be sources
from the offshore wind parks. With these goals is mind, two parks were being developed, the
Offshore Wind park Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ) with a capacity of 108 MW, that went
operational in 2006 and the Prinses Amalia windpark with a capacity of 120 MW that was
operational in 2008. Since the development of the parks started, the market actors are very
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interested in offshore wind as a renewable energy source. The government has recently
increased the 2010 goal of 450 MW by 500 MW, so in line with the new goals, 722 MW must
still be commissioned by 2010.
Illustrated in Figure 1.1 is the current number of applications for offshore wind parks in the
North Sea. A large part of the North Sea is part of the Dutch Exclusive Economic Zone
(E.E.Z). The area outside of the 12-mile zone are officially international waters, but Dutch
EEZ, part of the sea that the Netherlands can exploit.
Figure 1.1 – Number of applications for wind parks in the North Sea
Source: Rijkswaterstaat, 26-02-2009, Kaartnummer: NZWS 2009-0016
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The two areas in blue are the existing wind parks that are operational already, those are the
Offshore Wind park Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ), operated by Nuon and Shell and the Prinses
Amalia windpark operated by Eneco and E-concern. The red and dotted red areas are
military training terrains, shipping lanes, clearways, oil and gas rigs and other areas that
have exclusively been reserved and are unsuited for offshore wind parks. The figure shows
that the North Sea is used intensively by a large number of different actors. The yellow areas
are new applications for wind parks, a total of 17 locations for parks are entered by 10
different applicants. These locations and the parks that are planned are currently under
investigation by the government to see if these are viable options. Each of these applications
are between 300-500 MW capacity, and the viable parks will be able to compete in a tender
for subsidy and the definitive permit to start construction and development of the park. The
winning initiatives must be finished within 5 years after the commissioning, all the other parks
will be canceled, as a new procedure will be in place from 2010 on to facilitate the move to
6000 MW in 2020.
The government has committed to develop a new subsidy- and permit policy for wind at sea
projects, due latest 2010, to support the energy sector in the road to more sustainability 2 and
the pursuit of 6000 MW capacity. In 2009, no new wind energy parks will be commisioned
and there is even a slight decrease in wind on land capacity. This is due to the legislative
problems and the hold on new wind capacity because of the problems the government faces
in developing new procedures and policy to cope with the overwhelming interest in (offshore)
wind. The current procedures have led to a number of problems and are unfit to support the
development needed to reach the goals. There is a lack of cooperation, transparency and
efficiency in the policies that hamper development by creating lack of trust and confidence in
the responsibility of the government to create effective rules that will allow market actors to
develop the wind parks and also overloads the departments that deal with offshore wind.
My research focuses on the cooperation between the energy sector and the Dutch
government and my central point will be to identify how to strengthen the cooperation by
improving government policy for offshore wind park development in order to reach the
committed goals. The government and the energy market actors have committed to
sustainability goals of creating 6000 MW of wind energy capacity at sea by the year 2020.
However, a number of problems exist in the policies and the procedures surrounding this
goal. I will look into the current parks and try to improve the government policy to resolve
some important issues hampering the development. The question that I want to answer is:
2 Sectorakkoord Energie 2008-2020, convenant tussen Rijksoverheid en energiebranches in het kader van het
werkprogramma Schoon en Zuinig.
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How can government policy be improved to better support the development of current and
future offshore wind parks to 6000 MW in 2020?
The knowledge and experience gained by the two different off shore wind experiments that
are underway, being the Egmond aan Zee Offshore wind park (OWEZ) and the Prinses
Amalia Windpark (Q7-WP) off IJmuiden in the Netherlands are used to analyze the current
outlook for offshore wind energy. Using the Resource Scarcity model, Multiple Stakeholder
Processes and the Technological Innovation System approach, I will compare the results and
outlook of these projects and craft advice on how to optimize the development of offshore
wind parks to meet the goals stated by the government and the energy sector. The focus will
be mainly on government policies surrounding the offshore wind developments. The current
policies, subsidy programs and permit procedures are unclear, inefficient and take too long
to complete 3 and are as such not suitable for the development and scale needed in the future
park development. Due to the high profile of wind energy and the high interests for
government, the energy sector and society as a whole, wind park development needs better
policy to successfully create new capacity and include all stakeholders in the process to
optimize cooperation and commitment to meet the sustainability goals as pursued by the
government. This thesis will investigate where goals and interest converge and collide, and
will clarify where what administrative obstacles exist in the creation of more offshore wind
capacity, and how they can be dealt with.
The offshore wind development in the Netherlands is a focal point of EU and Ducth
government policy, and as such has far reaching societal impact, on society as a whole by
influencing the future economy and energy mix and pricing. Both the energy sector and the
government have signed documents to achieve 450 Mw at Sea by 2011, with the 6000 Mw
as final goal for 2020. The development of offshore parks will influence not only the energy
companies and government, but also shipping at the North Sea, the environment (by
lowering GHG emissions) as well as the impact of the wind parks on marine life, the aim is
also to create a new industry around wind energy for the Netherlands.
The current economic crisis and recession that sweeps across the globe has also affected
the Netherlands. On Thursday the 26 th of March 2009, the Dutch government presented their
crisis agreement, aimed at coping with the economic crisis. This plan has also increased the
budget for the subsidy for offshore wind energy and increased the original 450 MW goal in
2010 to 950 MW. The government wants to use the crisis to craft a sustainable and
3 Quickscan Zeekracht – kafka brigade, Augustus 2008
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innovative economy, wind energy has an important role in this development. In the coming
15 years, the government is investing another 2,4 billion Euro extra into the offshore wind
parks currently being developed in the North Sea. The original goal of 450 Mw of wind
energy from the North Sea will be increased to 950 Mw. The SDE (Stimulering Duurzame
Energie/Stimulation Renewable Energy), the governments instrument for funding innovation
and wind development will therefore be expanded and increased 4 . Remarkably enough, at
the very same time, Shell, one of the major energy company and partner of the OWEZ
project (with Nuon and the Dutch government) has decided to stop investing in wind energy 5 .
These conflicting interests and messages between the various parties involved in offshore
wind parks makes this field a very interesting topic for further research.
Wind energy and policy around renewable energy enjoys a high profile resulting in a wide
body of literature to broad to introduce here, I will specify some areas of specific interest
related to this thesis. Lund (2007) and Enzensberger et al. (2002) have researched the
effectiveness of policy measures and policy approach in transforming the energy system
towards renewable sources. The Energie Centrum Nederland (ECN) is a word renowned
research institute that has been active in research on all aspects of wind energy. Beurskens
& Noord (2003) have studied the current and future developments of offshore wind parks in
the Netherlands, the UK and Norway. And special target groups issued by the Dutch
government, like the Strategiegroep Transitie Offshore Wind (TOW), have already examined
a transition towards the 2020 goals for offshore wind. Maintenance and operation costs have
been estimated (Rademakers et al. 2008) for offshore wind parks, and more research is
being done on the technological challenges facing wind energy at open sea. Recently, the
energy transition policy in the Netherlands is studied, signaling the risk of the current
transition strategy to be captured by the energy regime countering the needed innovation
(Kern, Smith, 2008).
Offshore wind energy is a hot topic of many scholarly, government and industry research,
governments and energy companies make offshore wind parks the spear points for their
policies and strategies. However, the offshore wind energy sector is still in development, and
large scale use of offshore wind parks is a very recent initiative that needs further study and
growth to evolve and mature. Therefore, research and policy are very closely intertwined,
which makes any research done in this area interesting, valuable and applicable.
In the advice on wind energy at sea, the Strategiegroep Transitie Offshore Wind (TOW), a
strategic study group that is part of the general energy transition body of the Dutch
4 Kabinet presenteert crisisakkoord - Volkskrant, 26-03-2009
5 Shell stopt met wind- en zonne-energie - NRC Handelsblad, 18-03-2009
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government, has clarified the role of the government as the identification of the right
requirements for transition. The group stresses a close relation with the corporate sector.
Offshore wind energy is a relatively new industry with enormous potential. Both government
and corporate sector lack sufficient experience, and the focus must be on innovation in
management of offshore wind energy, project technical – and operational innovation.
(Strategiegroep TOW, 2007, p. 20)
1.2 Theoretical Framework
I will use 3 theories to structure my approach on the subject that will allow me to formulate
proposed improvements for policies and legislature that will influence offshore wind energy
development. First, I will analyze the energy mix of the Netherlands and Europe in order to
give substance to the energy challenges specified in EU policy and the specific effects for the
Netherlands on their energy supply. The Resource Scarcity Model (Amineh & Houweling,
2007) is used for this, as the model analyzes scarcity of fossil fuels and traditional forms of
energy, thereby analyzing energy dependency and energy security considerations for the EU
and The Netherlands. These considerations fuel the development of renewable sources and
wind energy. In order to better understand the problems and drawbacks of the current Dutch
policies and legislations I will use the Multiple Stakeholder Processes approach (Hemmati,
2002) that will identify stakeholders and also specifies underlying characteristics of sound
sustainability policy making. This theory enables me to test the policies and their critics using
ground rules and values specified by the theory, thereby being able to examine its quality.
The third theory I will use in this research is the Technological Innovation System (TIS)
approach (Bergek et al, 2008). The TIS approach is a tool that focuses on the development,
diffusion and use of a particular technology. The approach that I have will use has been
redesigned to be applicable to policy, policy implications and to specify policy problems.
Resource Scarcity model
The developments in renewable (wind)energy that are under study in this research have to
be put in context of today’s energy environment, that is dominated by fossil fuels. The
Resource scarcity model (Amineh & Houweling, 2007) identifies the scarcity of fossil fuels
and traditional forms of energy in three ways. Demand Induced scarcity is scarcity by rising
demand of fossil fuels, and is caused by three effects. The first is population growth in
consuming countries, the second is the rising of per capita income in the developed countries
and the late industrializing countries (South- and East-Asia). The third effect is technological
change, as industrialization has made the access to fossil fuels more important for wealth
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and power (Amineh & Houweling, 2007, p.375). The strain on the supply of oil and gas
reserves rises because of the increasing number of people depending on fossil fuels.
Supply-induced scarcity is scarcity that develops due to problems on the supply of energy
sources. It is caused by the fluctuation of the level of known stocks or proved reserves. This
is a form of scarcity is not only caused by economic indicators like extraction costs, but also
by psychological factors, which makes for a dynamic interplay (Amineh & Houweling 2007.
p.375). Psychological factors are for example the varying anticipation of future stock levels.
The last form of scarcity, structural scarcity exists when a major power deliberately creates
supply-induced scarcity. Control over territories rich in oil and gas are strategic assets, and
rivaling powers have interest in inducing scarcity by gaining access to such territory. A recent
example of structural scarcity is the American invasion in Iraq, which provided the invading
country with access to the rich Iraqi Oil fields.
The interplay of the scarcities in the model provide a framework to analyze the fossil fuel
dependency of the EU, this will illustrate the need for the EU to develop alternative sources
and forms of energy to enable a stable and affordable energy mix.
By effectively moving into renewable energy sources, the EU aims at limiting the influence of
resource scarcity by producing energy from renewables. The goal is to diminish the effects
of scarcity of traditional energy resources and decreasing the EU’s reliance on energy
imports.
Multi Stakeholder Theory
Multiple Stakeholder Processes (MSPs) cover a wide set of spectrums and levels of
engagement. They vary among objectives, issues, scope, time line and participants.
Generally, MSP is used to describe processes which aims to bring together all major
stakeholders in a new form of communication, decision finding or decision making structure.
MSPs are based on recognition of the importance of achieving equity and accountability in
communication between stakeholders built on democratic principles of transparency and
participation. Succesfull MSPs will aim to develop partnerships and strengthen networks
between and among stakeholders. (Hemmati, 2002, p. 19)
MSP is a very useful approach in attaining the common goal of increasing offshore wind park
development, as it can build trust and increase cooperation in the future between
stakeholders. MSP can put together stakeholders that have expertise in offshore wind
development and create mutual benefits, create commitment by enabling partners to identify
with the goals, put important issues on the political agenda and create clear responsibilities
and also create and carry out joint action plans, functions that have been underlined in many
15

esearch (Szarka, 2005, Jacobsson & Bergek, 2004, Kern & Smith, 2008). MSPs can also
promote diffusion of innovation and develop both incremental and radical innovation
(Bleiswitch, 2003). I will use MSP theory to identify and test any Multiple Stakeholder
Process already underway, and offer advice on how to redesign or improve MSPs to improve
offshore wind development in the future.
Technological Innovation Systems
The Technological Innovation Systems approach stems from Innovation Systems Theory. An
Innovation System (IS) is “…The network of institutions in the public and private sectors
whose activities and interactions initiate, import, modify, and diffuse new technologies”
(Freeman, 1987). The IS approach comes from the developments in the institutional
economists and evolutional economic theorists, the interdependence recognizes, that
physical and social technologies co-evolve, and that this co-evolutionary process is the
driving force behind economic growth (Nelson & Nelson, 1998). The central idea behind the
IS approach is that innovation and diffusion of technology is both an individual and a
collective act. The IS approach includes firm specific dynamics, technology characteristics
and adoption mechanisms (Hekkert et al. 2002).
An innovation system is primarily an analytical construct, a tool to better understand and
illustrate system dynamics and performance. Technological Innovation Systems are socio-
technical systems focused on the development, diffusion and use of a particular technology.
The TIS has been redesigned to focus on policy and policy implications within the TIS. By the
functional division, explicitly stating and including all functions makes for opportunity of
systematically identifying policy problems (Bergek et al, 2008, p.409 ), this focus on policy
problems and the better systematic approach of the TIS approach makes it a valuable tool in
this research.
The TIS approach described a number of functions, which have a direct and immediate
impact on the development and diffusion and use of new technologies. For this research, the
technology will be offshore wind parks.
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Figure 1.2 – TIS
Source: Bergek et al (2008) - Analyzing the functional dynamics of
technological innovation systems: A scheme of analyisis, Research
Policy 37. pp. 407-429
The TIS approach consists of six steps, mentioned in Figure 1.2. In the next section I will
describe the steps and their function.
Step 1: Define the TIS in focus
The first step is the operationalisation of the TIS in focus, in this case offshore wind energy
policy, with specific focus on the Netherlands. I will focus on a knowledge field (as opposed
to a product/artifact) of the policy and the policy improvements. Offshore wind energy is an
industry that is in it’s infancy, large uncertainties still exist in technologies of turbines,
foundations, suppliers of parts, maintenance, connection to the electricity grid etc. Although
these factors are also of grave importance to the success of offshore wind in the
Netherlands, my approach will be on policies and legislature, that will need to create the right
conditions for the development of the entire industry, including the other challenges I
described earlier. Getting this process optimal for economies to develop is a crucial first step.
Step 2: Identify the structural components of the TIS
The structural components of the TIS are the actors, networks and institutions that are active
in influencing and shaping the Dutch policy for offshore wind parks. I have used extensive
analysis of legislature, policies around wind energy as well as published papers on policy
and legislature for offshore wind in the Netherlands. Offshore wind enjoys a high profile and
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eceives a lot of attention in the media, as well as research institutes, industry associations
and government (research) agencies. I have conducted interviews with professionals at
Shell, Nuon and the ministry of Economic Affairs to get a educated view on the current and
future policies and I also had contact with the NWEA (Netherlands Association for Wind
Energy), the leading industry association. This helps me to get a complete picture of the
relevant actors and policies.
Step 3: Mapping the functional pattern of the TIS
The next step is to map the functional pattern of the TIS. The steps mentioned, knowledge
creation and diffusion, resource mobilization, market formation, influence in the direction of
search, legitimation, entrepreneurial experimentation and development of external
economies are all traits that will give an overview of the reach, size and scope of the TIS. I
will elaborate on the functions of the TIS in this thesis in Chapter 4.
Step 4: Asses the functionality of the TIS and set process goals
In the fourth step, after we have analyzed how the TIS is working in step 3, we will look into
how well the TIS is performing. Comparing offshore wind policy development to other, similar
processes and taking into account the phase of development of the TIS, we can infer what
the goals for the TIS (offshore wind energy policy) should be, and how we must expect it to
perform.
Step 5: Identify inducement and blocking mechanism
The success of any TIS is not only a result of the inner workings, external dynamics also play
a vital role in the functioning of a TIS. In policy, it is very important to get a good
understanding of the inducement and blocking mechanisms that influence the TIS. I will
device a map of the inducement and blocking mechanisms and their influence on the
functional pattern defined in step 4 of this approach. The result of this analysis will be taken
to the next step.
Step 6: Specify key policy issues
Having now defined the process goals, the reason for setting these goals and how to
measure whether the goals are reached, the key policy goals can be specified, crucial for
achieving the desired functional pattern of the TIS. The blocking and inducement
mechanisms for the desired development of the TIS are analyzed, thereby moving to a
system failure view on policy instead of the traditional market failure approach to policy
formation. In chapter 4 of this research, the TIS method will be applied to this research.
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1.3 Methodology
An important part of this research will be comprised of literature studies. An abundance of
research and policy papers on off shore wind energy already exists, available through books,
research papers, journals, websites and official government departments. Research into the
development of offshore wind have been conducted and made available via different
sources. For this research, my focus will mainly be on the Netherlands, which housed a great
number of specific research agencies (ECN), lobby groups (Noordzeeloket), university
research programs (Duwind of TU Delft), government departments (Ministerie VROM &
Economische Zaken). Next to this local knowledge I will also include research from leading
scientific journals like Energy Policy.
The broad literature study in the subject will be complemented by a number of interviews with
key players in the offshore wind park development in the Netherlands. I contacted
Senternovum, the organisation dealing with subsidy for wind projects and held interviews
with government officials involved in the policy at the Ministry of Economic Affairs. I also
interviewed professionals at Shell and Nuon, who are in a partnership together in the
Egmond aan Zee wind park. I used semi-structured interviews (attached in the Appendix III)
as this allowed me to focus on the most relevant aspects for this research, but also allowing
the interviewees to elaborate and expand the area of interest to unearth wider information on
the subject. The downside of this approach is that the interviews and information obtained
there can not be directly compared, however, due to the complexity of the subject and the
different background of the interviewees, this approach will work best in this research.
Unfortunately, I did not have the chance to interview E-concern and Eneco, involved in the
Prinses Amalia windpark, Q7-WP, due to their bankruptcy.
The literature study and interviews will be complemented with data provided by institutes as
for instance the IEA (International Energy Association), Wind Service Holland (Dutch Wind
research) the EU and ECN (Energie Centrum Nederland).
19

1.4 Organization of the work
In the next part, Chapter 2, I will discuss energy supply security and climate change, further
examining the Resource Scarcity model and global energy trends and their impact on the
European and Dutch energy mix and the role of renewables in the energy supply.
The energy dependency and energy security considerations that the EU will have to face in
the future are an important motivation that have shaped the move to renewable energy in
EU policy.
Chapter 3 will have a more specific focus at offshore wind development in the Netherlands,
the policies around offshore wind parks are investigated and a closer look is provided on the
various stakeholders and their interests in further deployment of offshore wind parks to see
how the move to renewable sources of energy has taken shape in the Netherlands. The
problems and critique on these procedures are investigated and will provide the necessary
input in improvements needed to facilitate the 6000MW goal in 2020.
In Chapter 4, I will look into the current operational offshore wind parks, the Egmond aan Zee
OWE park and the Prinses Amalia (QW-7) park at Ijmuiden and the other parks currently
under development. Using the TIS approach focused on offshore wind energy policy I will
define inducement and blocking mechanisms for the creation of policy that suits the need of
the government and the other stakeholders involved in offshore wind energy. I will elaborate
on the current situation in the private/public cooperation and advice on how to improve the
results in offshore wind development by improving the policies and legislature. The last part,
Chapter 5, will present the conclusions of this research, the limitations of the research will be
explained and suggestions for further research will be elaborated.
20

Chapter 2 - Prospects for renewable energy in the EU and the Netherlands and the
role of offshore wind
Introduction
In this Chapter I will describe the current energy supply and demand dynamics as they exist
in the world today, with specific focus on Europe. I will structure my approach by applying
assumptions of the scarcity model (Amineh & Houweling, 2007) summarized in Chapter 1.
I will look into the development of the production and consumption of fossil fuels, the
resulting levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and global warming. I will examine the effects for
the EU in general and specific focus on the Netherlands, followed by an analysis and outlook
regarding the potential of renewable energy sources. The European perspective is of
importance as the Netherlands has aligned its policies with the 2020 goals as formulated by
the European Union, that are a direct result of the European energy mix. I will describe the
electricity production and consumption in the EU and the share of renewable sources that is
aimed for. Then I will go into the energy mix and renewable energy potential of the
Netherlands and elaborate on the future for offshore wind as a prominent source of
renewable energy for the Netherlands.
2.1 Resource Scarcity in the European Union
In applying the resource scarcity model I will focus on oil and gas, as these sources of
energy are the most intensively used products in the European energy mix. Oil has remained
the largest source of energy for years, decreasing only 1% from 1990, to 37% in 2006.
During the same period the percentage of gas and nuclear energy increased to 24% for gas
and 14% for Nuclear energy. Together, as illustrated in Figure 2.1, Oil and gas make up for
61% of the energy mix, renewable only represent 7% of the energy use in 2006. Using the
Resource scarcity model, I will analyze the impact this has on energy supply and security for
the European Union, since oil and gas are scarce resources that are vital to the meet the
EU’s energy demand.
21

Figure 2.1 – EU Gross Inland Consumption (Energy Mix in M toe, %) - 2006
Source: DG Energy and Transport , 2009
Scarcity of natural resources (oil and gas) is caused by three types of scarcity. The three
types are: demand-induced scarcity, supply-induced scarcity and structural scarcity (Amineh
and Houweling, 2007). Demand-induced scarcity itself is again caused by three factors:
population growth in consumer countries, rise in per capita income in high-income countries,
and technological change (Ibid. p. 375). Supply-induced scarcity is caused by two other
factors, firstly, the dwindling of stock and secondly concern about the stability of supply. The
concern for the stability of supply mainly forms due to political tensions in the region of the
producing countries (for example, the tensions around the Iranian Nuclear Program that
might influence oil availability for the West as political tension may cause them to cut oil
supply). Structural scarcity is supply-induced by the deliberate action of a major power, by
non-state actors such as major oil companies, or by producer cartels such as the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (Ibid. p.375).
2.1.1 Demand Induced Scarcity
Demand Induced Scarcity is caused by population growth, rise in per capita income and
technological change. In the following paragraphs the development of each of the three
variables is analyzed. Rising demand for energy will increase the pressure on the limited
resources present in the world, this will lead to increased shortage of our primary energy
sources, oil and gas.
22

Population growth
The world population growth reached its peak at 2% each year around the 1970s, depicted in
Figure 2.2. Since then, the growth rate has been declining, now the population growth is
around 0.6%. By the middle of the twenty-first century, the population of the world is
projected to be growing at an annual average of 0.5 per cent.
Figure 2.2 – Average annual growth rate of the world population, 1750 - 2050
Source: UN Statistics Database, 2008
Nonetheless, the projected World population shows an increase in the coming years. The UN
has estimated the World population growth using a low, medium and high growth variant. In
the medium variant, the world population is expected to grow to 8.9 billion people by the year
2050 (see Appendix IV). Currently, the world population is around 6 billion. Rise in population
means that an increasing number of people will need to have access to energy sources,
which will increase demand for energy.
Rise in per capita income
Rise in per capita income is the second determinant of demand induced scarcity. This is
measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Per capita GDP represents the total
value in Purchasing Power Parity terms of final goods and services produced within a
country during a specified time period divided by the average population for the same one
year. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a theory which relates changes in the nominal
exchange rate between two countries currencies to changes in the countries' price levels,
thereby ruling out exchange rate differences.
23

The graph below, depicted in Figure 2.3, shows the growth of GDP per capita from 1980 on
towards (predictions of) GDP development in 2014. We can clearly see a downturn due to
the recent economic crisis, but after a few years GDP is expected to continue to rise further.
Although Europe and North America continue to have the highest GDP per capita by far, we
can see that Asia Pacific and South America are also on the rise. Per capita income is going
up, which means that the demand for energy and resources is going to rise as well. Per
capita income developments seem to continue to add to demand induced scarcity of
traditional energy sources.
We can see that Europe has the second highest GDP, after North America. A high GDP
translates into a higher welfare level. Consequently, higher welfare directly influences the
energy usage of a society. The number of electrical appliances rises, people live in larger
houses that need more energy and make use of modern transportation that further raise
energy needs.
US dollars
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1980
1982
1984
Figure 2.3 – GDP growth per region, PPP per capita
1986
Technological change
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Years
2000
2002
2004
Source: IMF, 2008
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Middle East
North America
Europe
Africa
Asia and Pacific
South America
Technological change is the third factor that determines demand induced scarcity. The
Industrial Revolution presented the biggest influence, that started in the late 18 th century,
initiated by the invention of the steam engine in 1775. The Industrial Revolution originated in
24

Great Britain and marks the start of a shift in human society by a move from agricultural-
based societies to modern society because of machine-based production. The invention of
the steam engine marked a technological change that spread from Great Britain to Europe
and the United States. The mechanization of transportation and manufacturing paved the
way for trade and economic growth.
Industrialization greatly increased the wealth of the industrialized countries. Since then,
industrialized societies have relied on fossil fuels to provide their energy needs and became
dependent for their wealth and power on energy from fossil sources (Amineh and Houweling,
2007, p.375). Wood and coal were the primary energy inputs in early industrialization,
leading to decimation of forests and coal reserves, currently oil and gas are the main energy
sources that fuel advanced societies.
The development of China and India, the two largest new industrializing countries, has
increased energy demand drastically. China, one of the largest countries of the world
represents the biggest influence on global energy demand. In the past years, China has
picked up on the industrial revolution, moving from an agricultural society to an advanced
industrial economy. As of 2000, the share of China’s industrial sector has grown to be about
two-third of China’s total GDP. The share of agricultural sector of GDP has expectedly
declined from 42.2% in 1970 to 11.9% in 2000 (Dutta, 2005, p.1169). China’s demand for
energy to fuel their industrialization has grown dramatically. In 2008, Chinese energy
demand experienced a growth of 7.7%, accounting for half of global energy consumption
growth 6 . Figure 2.4 below shows that China’s Industrial Revolution has increased their oil
demand, turning China in a Net importer of oil.
6 BP statisitical review of world energy energy 2008 www.bp.com
25

Figure 2.4 – China’s Oil Production and Consumption, 1986-2006
Source: EIA International Petroleum, 2008
The growth and industrialization of China will have far reaching consequences for Europe
and its energy needs. China’s energy demand accounted for half of the total energy demand
growth in 2006, leading to increased demand for resources on the already scarce oil
resources. China poses a new and sizeable competitor for oil resources, that will claim its
part of the resources predominantly sourced from the Middle East. The technological
development of China is expected to increase in the coming decades, increasing their energy
demand and thus the competition for scarce resources.
So, looking from the demand side, the analysis shows that the global energy demand is most
likely going to increase in the coming years. The growing population that has increased
purchasing power that will develop the need for higher energy demand, as well as the
developing industrialization of China that will pose a new competitive risk for the already high
demand for resources in the EU due to their increased demand for oil and gas to fuel their
development. In the next part, we will take a look at energy supply.
2.1.2 Supply induced scarcity
Supply-induced scarcity is the second type of scarcity in the model, where demand-induced
scarcity puts pressure on the demand side, supply induced scarcity is initiated by shortages
of supply, running out of reserves/stock and uncertainty in supply due to external factors.
These factors put extra pressure on today’s energy consumption.
26

In determining supply-induced scarcity, I will look at the dwindling of stock and the concern
about the stability of supply and their influence on energy scarcity. In the next paragraphs I
will analyze the development of the main sources of energy (oil and gas) in recent years,
based on these criteria.
Dwindling of Stock
In this paragraph, I will look at the reserves of the most prominent energy sources in the
energy mix of the EU today, oil and gas. EU proven reserves will be compared with both
production and consumption in the European Union and in the rest of the world, together with
the ramifications this has on energy security in the EU. As has been depicted in figure 2.5,
the proven oil reserves for the EU have been on a constant low. At the end of 1986, the EU
had 9,2 thousand million barrels of oil, at the end of 2006 this has declined to 7,1 thousand
millions barrels, 0,6% of the total reserves in the world. The Middle East has by far the
biggest reserves, 61,5% of the total, which seen increase since 1986. The expansion of
proven reserves is mainly due to new technology and new site discovery that increases the
supply of oil that can be extracted.
Figure 2.5 – Oil Proven Reserves per region
at end at end
At end
Oil: Proved reserves 1986 1996 at end 2005 2006
Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand
Million million million Million Share
Barrels barrels barrels Barrels of Total
Total North America
Total S. & Cent.
101,6 89,3 60,7 59,9 5,0%
America 64,6 90,8 103,2 103,5 8,6%
Total Middle East 536,7 672,2 742,7 742,7 61,5%
Total Africa 58,0 74,9 117,2 117,2 9,7%
Total Asia Pacific 39,7 39,2 40,5 40,5 3,4%
European Union 27 9,2 8,5 7,3 7,1 0,6%
Source: BP world energy statistics 2006
Now that we have established that the EU has a small oil reserve, we will look at the
production and consumption dynamics to look into the energy dependency of the EU. The
small reserves the EU possesses do not allow them to have large production.
27

As depicted in Table 2.6 below, we can see that the Middle East has the largest production,
31,2% of total at 25.5 million barrels daily, followed by North America with a production of
12,1% of total. Europe sources the majority of their oil from the Middle East and the US, the
production of 2412 thousand barrels daily do not weigh up to the 15198 thousand barrels,
leaving an import dependency of 12786 thousand barrels daily.
North America, Asia Pacific and Europe are all depending on oil from the Middle East in
order to meet their consumption. The high reserves in the Middle East of these vital energy
sources are of great importance to the global energy relations as oil and gas are the primary
sources for energy around the world. The EU will have to compete for resources with North
America and Asia-Pacific, all relying on imports for meeting their energy needs. (See
Appendix V for Production & Consumption Data)
In the next part, we will take a look at gas import and exports, the second main energy
source in the world today, and 24% of the energy mix in the European Union. I will also
briefly discuss the gas supply of the Netherlands, but will do this in more detail with regard to
the renewable sources in paragraph 2.3 of this Chapter. The Russian Federation is included
as a separate entry due to the fact that the Russian Federation is the most prominent
supplier of gas to the EU. The EU has only 1,3% of the total gas reserve known today, with
2,43 trillion m 3 . The Middle East has the most reserves at 40,5% of total proven reserves.
The most important source for gas for the EU is the Russian Federation with 26,3% of total
reserves. The enormous reserves, and the fact that Russia borders the EU make it the
predominant gas supplier. However, this is not without its problems, as I will illustrate further
in paragraph 2.1.3. The Netherlands has a relatively large reserve at 0,7% of the world total
reserves, and is less dependent on Russian gas supplies as the rest of the EU countries,
however, due to its inexplicable linkage to the EU and the EU common energy market, the
general supply dynamics of the EU will also affect the Netherlands.
28

Figure 2.6 – Regional Proven Reserves for Gas
Natural Gas: Proved
at end
reserves at end 1986 at end 1996 2005 At end 2006
Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion
cubic Cubic Cubic cubic Share R/P
metres metres Metres metres of total ratio
Total North America 10,26 8,41 7,83 7,98 4,4% 10,6
Total S. & Cent. America 4,24 6,06 6,85 6,88 3,8% 47,6
Total Middle East 30,41 49,31 72,49 73,47 40,5% *
Total Africa 7,40 10,17 14,08 14,18 7,8% 78,6
Total Asia Pacific 8,14 10,40 14,66 14,82 8,2% 39,3
European Union 25 3,57 3,42 2,49 2,43 1,3% 12,8
Russian Federation n/a n/a 47,66 47,55 26.3% 77.8
Netherlands 1,82 1,77 1,39 1,35 0,7% 21,8
Source: BP World Energy Outlook, 2006
Now, we will take a look at the production and consumption dynamics for gas (see Appendix
VI for data). Most of the production of gas is taking place in North America, with 26,5% of the
total production. North America is still a net importer though, as their production of 754,4
billion m 3 in 2006 did not supply for the 770,3 billion m 3 of consumption. Asia Pacific is also a
net importer, with 377,1 billion m 3 production against 438,5 billion m 3 consumption in 2006.
However, the EU looks the most troubling, as they have only 202,7 billion m 3 production (of
which 61,9 billion m 3 in the Netherlands) against 487,4 billion m 3 of consumption. More than
half of EU’s gas consumption has to be imported, predominantly from Russia, which leads to
a very high import dependence for a energy source making up 24% op the total energy mix
for the EU. The Netherlands has a considerable gas reserve and high production, but more
than half of this production is consumed by the Netherlands themselves. The Netherlands
has a very gas-intensive energy mix and this leaves a small portion of gas available for
export.
From the analysis above we can conclude that for the most dominant energy sources in the
EU energy mix, oil and gas, the EU has a high import dependency for both sources. For oil,
the Middle East is the dominant supplier and for Gas the Russian Federation. Figure 2.7
below further specifies the energy dependency of the EU per country.
29

Figure 2.7 – Energy dependency per country, EU 2006
Source: EU Energy portal, 2009
We can see that a large number of countries are very dependent on imports, with the highest
dependency for Spain, Portugal and Italy. France and The Netherlands show a low
dependency due to nuclear energy and natural gas supplies respectively.
The future looks troublesome for the EU energy supply. The EU energy dependency will rise
from 50% in 2000, to 70% in 2030. As predicted, 45% of oil imports originate from the Middle
East, and by 2030, 90% of the oil consumption will be based on imported oils. Gas imports
are for 40% from Russia, rising to 60% in 2030 with an overall gas dependency of 80% 7 .
As oil and gas are non-renewable energy sources they will replenish, adding to the
importance of developing renewable energy sources. Below is a estimation of the date oil
and gas reserves are empty 8 .
7 The Commission Green Paper on security of energy supply (November 2000) http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/geopolitics-
eu-energy-supply/article-142665 (accessed on 20-04-2009)
8 EU Energy Portal http://www.energy.eu/#renewable (accessed on 28-04-2009)
30

Figure 2.8 – Oil and gas reserves and expected exhaustion date
Natural Gas (in cubic metres) Oil (in barrels)
Total world
reserves –
Jan 1 st 2009
World usage
per second
Estimated
date of
exhaustion
174436171550404 Total World
reserves – Jan 1 st
2009
92653 World usage per
07:19 Sept. 12 th ,
2068
second
Estimated date of
exhaustion
Source: Europe Energy Portal, 2009
1206780968626
986
16:36 Oct 22,
2047
With the oil exhaustion date at 2047, and gas at 2068, the global shortage of energy sources
is apparent, stressing the necessity of concentrating on renewable energy. Should the
current consumption of fossil fuels continue, the global supply of oil and gas will be finished
before 2070. Increased scarcity of these vital resources will lead to increasing tensions
between the producer and consumer countries, and fierce competition between the import
dependent states.
Concluding, we have seen that demand induced scarcity is expected to be of growing
importance in the energy security of the EU. In order to decrease demand induced scarcity,
the EU will have to look into lowering demand by increasing efficiency, or develop renewable
energy sources. An important part of the EU strategy will be to develop renewable energy in
order to be able to sustain the current standard of life for its increasing number of inhabitants
in the future. In the next part, we will take a look at structural scarcity facing the EU.
2.1.3 Structural Scarcity
Structural scarcity is supply-induced by the deliberate action of a major power, by non-state
actors such as major oil companies, or by producer cartels such as the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) (Amineh and Houweling, 2007, p.356).
A recent example that underlines problems in structural scarcity for the EU is the Ukrainian
Gas crisis.
31

In December 2008, the Ukraine and Gazprom got into a dispute on the supply price of gas
and transit prices. Gazprom is the world's largest gas producer and supplies a quarter of the
European Union's gas needs, or 42% of the EU's gas imports, much of it via Ukraine 9 .
Gazprom, although privately owned, is closely linked to the Russian government, and the
gas supply of Russia it manages can be used as a political tool, as the Gas Crisis shows.
In response to the debate on the gas prices, the Russians cut the gas supply to the Ukraine
in January 2009. Because the Ukraine acts as the main transfer country of Russian gas to
the EU, the gas delivery for a large number of EU countries stalled. This resulted in
disruptions in supply to 18 European countries in the middle of winter as the Ukraine is the
main gas supplier for the European Union 10 . The Ukraine and Russia have a long history of
disputes over gas prices and supply contracts, dating back to the early nineties. The
continuous irregularity in supply for the EU makes it highly susceptible for structural scarcity
risks, further adding to unstable energy security for the EU as a whole.
2.2 Renewable Energy:
As we have seen in the paragraphs above, Europe is heavily reliant on foreign countries for
its energy sources, which leads to volatility in supply. Coupled to rising demand and the
exhaustion of oil and gas, Europe needs to find alternative, renewable energy sources. In
this part, we will take a closer look on renewables in the European energy mix, and the plans
for renewables in the future. In 2006, only 7% of the EU energy mix is sourced from
renewables. But the EU will have to rely on renewables as alternative sources for energy in
the near future.
Renewable energies can play a major role in contributing to the challenge of energy security
and decreasing global warming as a result of preventing CO2 emission because they can
not deplete and also produce less greenhouse-gas emissions than fossil fuels.
Renewables can play an important role in decreasing Europe’s energy dependency, thereby
strengthening energy supply and counterbalancing the increasing pressure on the depleting
fossil fuels 11 .
9 BBC website - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7806616.stm
10 Euractiv website - http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/europe-seeks-draw-lessons-gas-crisis/article-178708
(accessed on 19-04-2009)
11 Euractiv website – www.euractiv.com - (accessed on 02-05-2009)
32

The renewable energy market also presents a very promising new sector of industry,
especially for countries in North-West Europe. Sectors include manufacturing of components,
systems design and engineering and electricity transport. Each sector will benefit
economically by creating employment and new sources of revenue.
The European Commission has issued a directive that lays down the principles according to
which Member States need to ensure that the share of renewable energy in the EU final
energy consumption reaches at least 20% by 2020, and establishes national overall targets
for each Member State. The directive focuses on three different sectors that are concerned in
renewable energy, this thesis focuses on electricity. In Appendix VII you can find an overview
of the 2020 goals for all the member countries in the EU.
The directive has been put in effect in 2001, since then a large number of member countries
have been heavily investing in renewable sources of energy. In Figure 2.9 below I have
depicted the development of primary production from renewables in the EU-27 from 2000 to
2006. The year 2000 acts as a base year (with value 100).
Figure 2.9 – Development of primary production from renewables
in EU -27 (2000-2006)
Source: Eurostat, 2009
The lines represent the development of the accompanying renewable energy source. Blue
represents biomass and wastes, yellow is hydro, purple for wind energy, light blue for
geothermal and green for solar energy.
Since 2000, hydro energy has seen a decline of its share in primary production, biomass and
wastes are growing but relatively slow, and geothermal has stagnated its development
33

around 2003. The most impressive results are in solar energy and wind energy, with solar
more than doubling in capacity since 2000, and wind energy has more then tripled its share
of primary production. These results underline that the directive has been effective and that
wind energy has seen the most prominent growth.
2.2.1 Wind Energy in the EU
Wind Energy has seen the most prominent growth in supply in the recent years, and is
expected to be the most prominent source of renewable energy in the future. As the fossil
fuels are going to run out and will be increasingly volatile because of resource scarcity, wind
energy is a suitable alternative, as it is indigenous and unlimited. Relying on wind energy will
lower the need for fuel imports. Wind energy can be produced at known prices, decreasing
volatility in the energy market and lowering inflationary pressure. Another important aspect of
wind energy is that it is not affected by international political pressure or regional conflict.
Wind also has the possibility of being implemented on a large scale, making a sizeable
contribution to energy supply. Until 2001, wind energy was only produced at onshore
locations, but since 2001, the first offshore parks were operational. In Figure 2.10, we can
see the annual wind energy installations for Europe from 2000 onwards, with projections until
2020 by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA). As illustrated in the graph, onshore
wind will gradually grow, but the most dominant growth is seen in the offshore wind
installations. Each year, a large installation is added offshore to a projection of a 7 GigaWatt
installation in 2020.
Figure 2.10 - Wind Energy Annual Installations 2000-2020 in EU(in GW)
Source: EWEA, 2008
.
34

If we take a closer look at the cumulative capacity and electricity production from wind
energy, we see a similar development.
Figure 2.11 - EU electricity from Wind up to 2030 (in GW & TWh)
Source: EWEA (2008)
The cumulative capacity of onshore locations will continue to be dominant, but offshore wind
energy will see the highest increase, from 7 GW in 2020 to around 450 GW in 2030. The
electricity production that will originate from offshore installations is projected to grow to
almost half of the total electricity production sourced from wind.
Taking a closer look at the EU, we can see in Table 2.1 that Germany has the biggest
installed capacity with 23902 MW in 2008, followed by Spain with 16740 MW in 2008. Italy,
France, UK, Denmark, Portugal and the Netherlands comprise the rest of the top 8 of
installed capacity, however, Germany and Spain have the largest capacity by far.
Germany and Spain have 39,4% and 26,8% respectively in 2007, with the other countries of
the top 8 at 5,5% (Denmark) and lower. The Netherlands have a 3,1% share of the total
capacity.
We have earlier concluded that the offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly in
the next decades. This growth potential illustrated by the EWEA projections is supported by
similar goals of the EU that aim to support the potential of offshore wind by the EU ETS as
well as EU legislation.
35

Table 2.1 – Wind Power installed capacities in the EU at the end of 2008
2007
(in MW)
2008
Capacity in
2006
Decommissioned
in 2008
Germany 22247,2 23902,8 1165,1 9,7
Spain 15151,3 16740,3 1609,1 20,1
Italy 2726,1 3736,5 1010,4
France 2455,1 3404,0 948,9
UK 2419,3 3287,9 868,6
Denmark 3123,8 3179,9 77,6 21,5
Portugal 2149,6 2862,0 712,4
Netherlands 1747,0 2224,6 499,4 21,8
Sweden 831,0 1021,0 190,0
Ireland 795,0 1002,7 207,7
Source: Adapted from EWEA, 2009
Measured in total installed capacity, The Netherlands takes the 8th place in the EU, with
leaders Germany and Spain at one and two respectively with a much larger capacity
installed. But, if we look at offshore wind capacity, we see that the Netherlands has the 3 rd
installed capacity of the EU after the UK and Denmark, with considerably more capacity then
4 th country Sweden. In the next part of this chapter I will look at the potential for offshore wind
energy in The Netherlands.
36

Table 2.2 – Wind Offshore – Power installed capacity in the EU
at the end of 2008 (in MW) (incl. near shore projects and offshore test sites)
2007 2008
UK 403,8 565,8
Denmark 426,4 426,4
Netherlands 126,6 246,8
Sweden 133,5 133,5
Belgium 0,0 30,0
Ireland 25,0 25,0
Finland 0,0 24,0
Germany 7,0 12,0
Italy 0,0 0,1
Total EU 27 1122,5 1463,6
Source: EarObserv / ER 2009
2.3 Offshore Wind Energy in the Netherlands.
Now that we have analyzed the scarcity for the main energy sources, oil and gas for the
European Union, and also examined the development of renewable energy sources in the
EU, we will now focus on the Netherlands and their position in these developments. The
European situation has a very important impact on the Netherlands. First of all, Europe is
striving for a liberalized energy market with the goal to connect all national energy markets
into one large interconnected European market. Considerable steps are undertaken to
gradually move towards one market, this means that the energy problems that the EU is
facing will increasingly become Dutch problems as well. As we have seen, The Netherlands
currently has 3,1% of the total capacity of wind energy installed and is aiming to get a larger
share of the market.
First, I will analyze the import and export balance of the Dutch energy mix in 2008, as
depicted in Table 2.3
37

Table 2.3 – Import and Export Balance of the Dutch Energy Mix (2008) in Petajoule
Energy Sources
(in Petajoule)
Total Coal
Total Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat, Biomass,
Waste
Nuclear
Total Energy
Sources
Production
Source: CBS Statline, 2009
We can see that The Netherlands rely heavily on the import of oil, 7567 petajoule is
imported. A large amount, 5511 petajoule, is exported again, which means the import
balance for the Netherlands is 2067 petajoule. Nuclear Energy is produced at Borselle, the
only Nuclear Plant in the Netherlands, all of it’s production is consumed at the home market.
Coal is largely replaced by oil and natural gas, and represents an import balance of only 359
petajoule. Electricity is also largely imported, with a production of only 16 petajoule and 90
petajoule import. With a consumption of three times the production, electricity sourced from
wind can play an important role in decreasing the import balance.
The Netherlands use four of the five renewable sources for their electricity supply, only
geothermal energy is not present in the natural resources. Initiatives are developed in solar,
hydro, biomass and wind energy. Depicted in Figure 2.12 is the development of these four
renewable sources from 2000 until 2007.
Import
Export
Import
Balance
- 562 203 359
93 7567 5511 2056
2544 760 1852 -1092
16 90 33 57
149 - - -
40
2843 8979 7598 1381
38

Figure 2.12 - Development of renewable energy sources in the Netherlands by source
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
00
01
in % of total electricity consumption (2000-2007)
02
03
04
05
06
07
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Hydro Wind Solar Biomass
Source: CBS Statline, 2009
Hydro-power and solar power play only a marginal role in electricity production, biomass has
the largest percentage of consumption at around 3% of the electricity consumption, closely
followed by wind with just under 3%. Wind energy has seen the highest increase of all the
renewable sources from 2000 on.
The most notable source in the energy mix is the reserve of natural gas The Netherlands
possesses, allowing for a production of 2544 peta joule, and an import balance of -1092 peta
joule. The indigenous gas supply is an important asset for the Dutch energy mix, their
reserves allow them to export gas and makes the Netherlands invulnerable to the
dependency on Russian Gas that is experienced by the rest of the EU. Notwithstanding the
large natural gas supply, The Netherlands have ambitious plans for renewable energy, and
offshore wind will play the most prominent role in attaining these goals. The ambition is to
have 6000 MW of offshore wind park capacity installed by 2020. This is a great challenge
given that the current installed capacity is 450 MW.
With a long coastline on the North Sea, the Netherlands are located in an area with high wind
speeds, very suitable for offshore wind energy. As depicted in the graph below, wind speeds
are around 8 M/s and wind power 600-800 Watts per m 2 of rotor surface, compared to 100 –
400 Watt per m 2 for the other locations. Only hills and ridges score higher in terms of wind
speed and power capacity.
39

Figure 2.13 – Wind Resource Map - EU
Source: Windpower, 2008
In line with the plans outlined in the EC Directive and the Schoon en Zuinig plan, the
Netherlands has been developing their wind energy capacity steadily from 1987 onwards,
starting with wind on land. In Figure 2.14, the capacity development of wind energy in the
Netherlands in MW is depicted. The graph shows the apparent increase in capacity after
2001, the start of both the Directive and Schoon en Zuinig.
Figure 2.14 – Capacity of Dutch Wind Energy by source (in MW)
Source: Wind Service Holland, 2009
40

From 1996 on, the first nearshore installations were set up, the first operational near shore
park is Egmond aan Zee, commissioned in 2001. The first offshore installations in the
Netherlands were developed in 2006, in the form of the Prinses Amalia park.
If we take a look at the realised capacity per year, we can see by looking at the irregular
peaks in the graph (Appendix VIII) that a coherent strategy is much needed to get a steady
increase. In 2006 and 2008 capacity growth peaked, while other years showed fluctuation.
The negative result so far for 2009 means that some turbines have been decommisioned,
leading to loss of capacity. With a very small part under construction, no new wind energy
will be commisioned in 2009, and a slight decrease in wind on land capacity can be seen.
The government has put a hold on new wind capacity because of the problems the
government faces in developing new procedures and policy to cope with the overwhelming
interest in (offshore) wind. The procedures that were put in place for the development of wind
at sea in the Netherlands have been plagued by inefficiency in the first round of 950 MW in
2010. The government chose to leave the initiative to market actors to exploit parks and
develop locations for offshore wind parks were to be developed by market actors. In Chapter
3 I will further analyze the policies and legislature that help create the offshore parks and the
problem associated with these procedures.
So far we have determined that offshore wind is the most prominent renewable energy for
the Netherlands in fulfulling the 2020 goals, with a 6000 MW committed capacity in 2020.
Wind energy is the most prolific source of renewable energy for the Netherlands, as the
Netherlands are highly suitable geographically for large-scale offshore wind locations due to
the large EEZ in the North Sea and the relatively shallow depth fo the water. Since 2001, the
first nearshore and offshore parcs are developed, and the next step will be commissioning
larger parks to be able to make the 6000 MW goal. However, large scale offshore wind
energy comes with a great deal of uncertainty and risk, offshore wind is not cost-effective yet,
and developers rely on government stimulus to be able to develop large scale parks. This
implies that the government needs to have sufficient budget and commitment to this form of
renewable energy in order to create the right environment for market actors to enter into the
large scale development of this source of energy. However, the energy dependency and
energy security issues outlined above do underline the need for the Netherlands to diversify
their energy mix and decrease their import dependency.
In the next paragraph, the interest for renewable energy from a climate change perspective
are described.
41

2.4 Climate Change
The importance of renewable energy sources for Europe is also motivated by the climate
change and the greenhouse gas emissions as a result of energy by fossil fuels. Fossil fuels
emit Greenhouse gasses (water vapor, CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, CFCs) that
impact the earth’s atmosphere negatively by creating global warming. The second most
dominant of the greenhouse gasses is CO2.
Below, the rise in CO2 concentration is depicted.
Figure 2.15 – Monthly Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the atmosphere, 1952 - 2009
Source: HADCRUUT 3, 2008
The rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere has said to contribute to global warming. The rise of
the temperature in the earth’s atmosphere is apparent, and has enormous influence in the
future of our planet and life on earth 12 .
12 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/ (accessed on 01-04-2009)
42

In the past decades global warming is apparent, the graph below shows the rising
temperature of the earth, with the rising concentration of greenhouse gasses as the most
likely explanation.
Figure 2.16 – Global Air temperature, 1860 - 2008
Source: IPCC, 2008
The graph shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature from 1850 to
2008, 2008 being the 10th warmest year of the time series. The nineties was the warmest
decade 13 .
Climate change, its origins and its implications are researched by a special, Nobel-prize
winning, research panel, The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The
IPCC stated, in its most recent report in 2007: “Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea
level” … “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-
20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.
The effects of the temperature increase are very worrying and pose widespread threats to
agriculture, ecosystems, human health, water resources, industry and society. (For a full list
of effects, see the IPCC report of 2007). Renewable energy can make a big contribution in
countering the production of greenhouse gasses and limiting the effects of climate change.
13 Hadcruut website – http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/ (accessed on 24-04-2009)
43

2.5 Conclusion
In this chapter I have analyzed the supply and demand characteristics of energy for the
European Union in general, with specific focus on the Netherlands. I have demonstrated that
the rise in the world population together with the rise of per capita income has increased the
demand for energy and the energy use in world. Europe, as on of the wealthiest areas in the
world has sharply increased the energy usage. At the same time, we are witnessing an
Industrial Revolution in China. Energy demand has risen tremendously from 1992 onwards,
with the recent economic recession only slowing the growth down mildly.
If we look at the supply side, we see that for its oil and gas supply, Europe is heavily
dependent on oil from the Middle East, and gas from Russia. Relying on energy sources
controlled by foreign powers greatly influences security of supply, and the gas crisis in 2008
between the Ukraine and Russia has proven that the supply security for Europe is very weak
as the Ukrainian dispute resulted in supply interruptions with far reaching implications for a
number of European countries, who had to limit gas supply to their populations. The existing
tensions will only increase with gas reserves expected to run out in 2068 and oil reserves in
2047 already. Together with the climate change, largely caused by the world’s energy use,
this makes a strong case for the dedication to renewable energy sources in Europe. A move
to more renewable energy will increase security of supply, limit the impact on climate change
and will result in a more stable energy environment for Europe.
Of the various renewable energy sources (hydro, solar, wind) wind energy has the most
potential. Wind energy is indigenous and unlimited, is not effected by political pressure or
regional conflict and has the possibility of being implemented on a large scale. Wind energy
will lower the need for fuel imports, and will decrease the volatility in the energy market
because it can be produced at known prices.
Taking a closer look at the Netherlands, we can see that the geographic location of the
Netherlands on the North Sea does make it highly suitable for offshore wind energy
development. However, if we compare the Dutch offshore wind energy development we see
that the Netherlands is has the 8 th largest capacity in total wind, and a respectable 3 rd place
in offshore wind capacity. The development of offshore wind has only started at 2001 with
the OWEZ park, and currently only 250 MW is operational, with an enlargement of 950 MW
in 2010 to be expected. This is still a far cry away from the 6000 MW goal for 2020, with
procedural problems further damping the growth of offshore wind until the new round of
2012.
44

In the next chapter we will look at the role policy had and will have in the past and future for
offshore wind energy development in the Netherlands.
45

Chapter 3 – Offshore Wind Energy: Policy in the Netherlands
Introduction
In this chapter I will go into detail into the policies, legislation and permits that are applicable
to the development of offshore wind parks in The Netherlands. I will use the Multi-
Stakeholder Processes Theory (MSP) specified to sustainable governance in order to
determine in what aspects this theoretical approach is used by the government to connect to
stakeholders and to increase the success of the Schoon & Zuinig ambitions. I will describe
the stakeholders most relevant for this research and their responses to current policy and
their role in the development of offshore wind energy. Furthermore, I will go into the designs
for new policy, and describe where Multi Stakeholder Theory comes into the policy making
process as developed in the Netherlands.
3.1 Renewable Energy in the Netherlands – “Schoon & Zuinig”
The Dutch government has issued a special program in order to achieve the sustainability
goals: Schoon & Zuinig represents the approach the government undertakes. The program
has been developed after a 100-day dialogue with various stakeholders in society. The
government cannot solve the climate problems alone, and has seen an encouraging amount
of interest and action from other parties. The government can play a role in stimulating and
supporting developments and initiatives and take away barriers. Participation works better
then government pressure, and as a direct result convenant agreements are sealed with
various stakeholders 14 .
Schoon & Zuinig needs to stay in line with energy and climate policies by the European
Union and needs to improve the Dutch Knowledge-intensive economy and energy-industry
into market leaders. In 2010, the current results and expectations for Schoon & Zuinig will be
evaluated and necessary adaptations will be devised in case the progress is not satisfactory.
The Schoon & Zuinig plan uses a mix of five instruments to achieve its goals:
1- Market Incentives: The European Emissions Trading System (ETS) is the
cornerstone of the plan.
14 Sectorakkoord Energie 2008 – 2020 – Convenant tussen Rijksoverheid en de energiebranches in het
kader van Schoon & Zuinig, Duurzaamheidsakkoord – Convenant tussen overhead, MKB,
VNO/NCW, LTO, Staatsblad 142, 2009
46

2- Norms: Next to market incentives, norms will be formulated for energy-efficiency,
CO2 emission and sustainability. Norms will act as minimum requirements for slow-
adapters and act as innovation stimulants.
3- Instruments for Innovation: Innovation can lead to cost-reduction, cost-efficiency
and competition
4- Temporary Stimulus: Subsidies for renewable energy of fiscal stimulus
5- International Climate- and Energy diplomacy: This is a role for the European
Union.
In the next section, I will go in depth on the various instruments;
1- Market Incentives: EU ETS
The European Emissions Trading System (ETS) is the cornerstone of the European and
Dutch system to cut emissions. The international cap-and-trade system that is put in place is
a mandatory system of allowances for emitting CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. In its
current form, the caps are determined per industry on a national level. This effectively
creates an international carbon market. The ETS connects a price to each ton of emission,
thereby forcing companies and industries to innovate and create low-emission standards that
are needed to counter climate change. The ETS is based on four principles 15 :
• It is a ‘cap-and-trade’ system
• Participation is mandatory for businesses in the sectors covered
• It contains a strong compliance framework
• The market is EU-wide but taps into emission reduction opportunities in the rest of
the world by accepting credits from emission-saving projects carried out under the
Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation
instrument (JI). The EU ETS is also open to establishing formal links with compatible
mandatory cap-and-trade systems in third countries that have ratified the Kyoto
Protocol.
The cap creates scarcity that facilitates the market. Low-emission companies can sell any
excess capacity on the market, while over-emission companies can either invest to lower
their emissions or buy extra credits on the market. Only business are given allowances, but
any other parties (government, institutions, NGOs, etc) can buy and sell on the emission
market.
15 EC, 2009 - The EU emissions trading Scheme
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/brochures/ets_en.pdf (accessed on 24-05-2009)
47

2- Norms
Norms are a less relevant tool for the subject under study. Examples of norms are maximum
emission targets for cars, carbon footprint for buildings or EC-labels for products and
stimulation of energy-friendly light bulbs and heating systems. Norms are also used to
enhance trading of green electricity by limiting rules and translating European policy to
national characteristics.
3- Innovation Instruments
Innovation instruments are financial and non-financial supports to invest in innovation in its
widest form. Innovation leads to cost-reductions, efficiency and raises competitiveness of
firms. The government invests in Research & Development, pilot-projects, but also tries to
remove non-technological barriers by changing rules and procedures. For wind energy, a
number of projects involve raising the budget for the Energy Centre Netherlands (ECN)
research facilities and improving MEP (Milieu Effect Rapportage/Environment-quality Energy
production) structures that looks into the environmental impact of energy production for
example offshore wind parks and IES (Energy Innovation Subsidy) programs to support
projects and companies that invest in green electricity. Included in this are also campaigns
that educate the general public in the potential of renewables. The MEP is now cancelled
and included in the SDE (Stimulus Renewable Energy).
4- Temporary Stimulus – SDE
The SDE is the tool for stimulating renewable energy. Renewable energy is more expensive
to produce than conventional energy. The SDE supports renewable energy production in
order to compensate for the cost inefficiency of renewable energy, the policy became active
in 2008. In the SDE, the amount of the subsidy will be adapted to the market. If the energy
price is high and a lot of renewable energy is produced, the loss will be smaller, so the SDE
support will be less, and the other way around. The SDE can also compensate for the
revenue achieved by selling of certificates and CO2 rights that are won by renewable
production. The amount of SDE is calculated each year, and will be corrected with the
electricity price. For each project, the government will subsidize the loss on each project. The
SDE will accept request on a first come, first serve basis and has a yearly budget restriction.
The SDE is specifically made to enhance learning. For wind at sea this means that the
tender projects are relatively small, in order to optimize monitoring and evaluation. The SDE
will also allow projects to be selected on innovativeness on top of cost-effectiveness. Fiscal
measures are also included to lower tax on green energy and increase tax on carbon-
intensive products.
48

The results of the measures until now have not been without debate, the ECN researched
the progress of the Schoon & Zuinig program in 2007, the next progress report is due in
2010. They found that the SDE and MEP budgets are not enough to fulfill the goals of the
program, and expected 2800 MW of wind at sea if the policy was continued in the form it was
operational back then.
The ECN concluded that the SDE will start with a surplus budget, but this will dry out in later
years. In none of their variants did Schoon & Zuinig reach their goals. This was partly due to
lack of resources, unclear project-plans and the duration of preparations 16 .
In reaction to these findings, the SDE budget is further increased in 2009 in order to speed
up development and increase the chances of success. In March 2009, the government also
issued some changes in the SDE, many of which have to do with wind at sea. The
government wants to have more certainty when issuing subsidies on the basis of SDE.
Especially wind at sea, which are often complex, large-scale projects that have a long
planning and completion phase.
Developers that innovate and improve parks can get an extra additional subsidy on top of
SDE to stimulate further learning. In order to increase the flexibility of the procedures,
developers can now decide when to start receiving the SDE to improve the procedures
tailored to bigger parks. On top of this measure, the term of realization for wind parks is
increased from 3 years to 4 years to increase trust with big park development. Efforts to
even the playing field and allow for fair competition have resulted in a more direct link to the
SDE and the location where location that are further at sea at deeper locations will receive
more SDE, as well as taking into account wind variation in the new procedures, specified to
each location.
Measures that increase control on the government’s side are contractual requirements for
park developers to finish their parks if they won the tender, this to increase the risk of parks
not being finished. The SDE can be taken away if these risks exist. The minimum and
maximum electricity price for offshore wind energy is fixed to increase the budget control for
the government’s stimulus measures. Also, wind capacity that can receive subsidy is
maximised at 80% of a defined number of hours of operation (different for each park). The
subsidy then takes into account variation in wind and prevents too much subsidy in good
years and too little in bad years. 17
ECN predicts that with the current SDE, the 2011 goals will be made, but that for the longer
term additional measures should be developed. The SDE for 2009 opens in November for
16
PBL/ECN – Tussenstand van een aantal onderdelen uit het werkprogramma Schoon en Zuinig,
November 2008
17
Duurzaamheidsakkoord – Convenant tussen overhead, MKB, VNO/NCW, LTO, Staatsblad 142,
2009
49

wind at sea after a recalculation of the electricity prices and the final alterations to the policy
being made official.
5- International Climate – and Energy diplomacy
An important part of the options the Dutch government has for the climate policies are
determined by the European Union (For example the ETS system). The Netherlands will try
to actively influence European policies in order to stimulate renewable energy, the next
important milestone for this process is end of 2009. In December 2009 a Climate Conference
will be held in Copenhagen that will develop a renewed Kyoto protocol, the Copenhagen
protocol, the Conference is an important milestone for the UNFCCC (United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change). The Netherlands will try to influence the EU
stance of Climate Change and will try to further develop the EU ETS system. The need to
determine a CO2 emission price is shared by the Dutch government, however this price is the
result of European political debate that is only influenced indirectly, despite the effort to
develop a coherent outlook by the Dutch state.
3.2 Offshore wind energy in the Netherlands – 950 MW by 2010
In this section I will look into the procedures, permits and legislation that is applicable for
developing an offshore wind park. The complete legislation is in the Appendix I (in Dutch).
The government has issued a plan for developing 450 MW in 2010, the first step of Schoon &
Zuinig. In the following box section, the government’s plan to develop 450 MW is laid out 18 .
These same procedures apply for the increased target of 950 MW, after 2010 the procedures
will be improved to account for the move towards 6000 MW in 2020. I have included the
policy in order to give a complete view on the procedures and better understand some of the
problems identified by the market actors.
18 Draaiboek Commitering 450 Mw Wind op Zee – Ministerie van Economische Zaken - beleidsstuk, 4
juni 2008
50

2008
Step 1: The generic part of the appraisal is finished by the government
(locations are to be selected by the applicants)
Step 2: Criteria for the SDE subsidy are developed and published
The goal is to get the most production out of the least of subsidy. In order to spark
competition and innovation, a tender is set up.
Step 3: Consultation with wind sector on subsidy criteria.
End of 2008:
The prospective wind park developers are asked if they wish to continue with their
parks (By issuing W.b.r permits and M.E.R)
Parties that wish to exploit a wind park need to apply for a Wbr-permit, that, once
given, will allow them to develop and build a park in the exclusive economic zone at
sea.
The permit will be valid for three years, so the park needs to be ready within this time.
The wind park developer needs to provide the state with documentation that it has
sufficient funds to complete the park.
Then, the following documentation needs to be provided:
- Coordinates describing the outer limits of the park
- Nature and design of the park
- Proof of usefulness and necessity of the park
- Data on the ramifications of the use of the sea (effects for fishing,
oil&gas, shipping etc)
- Effects for the environment (by issuing a M.E.R, environment effect
report)
- Development and construction plan
- Maintenance plan
- Safety plan
- Lighting plan (for shipping safety)
- Calamity plan
- The duration of use of the park
- Plan for the extraction of the park
This permit does not include any cabling or connection to the electricity grid, an extra
procedure needs to be undertaken to get permission for the cables.
51

February 2009:
Step 4b: The government validates the M.E.R. Adaptations can be made on basis of
nautical reasons, ecology or risks associated with air-traffic.
There are 4 possible scenario’s:
1.1 – The park needs changes because of nautical risks, changes can be made to
get a positive M.E.R (in case of too much changes considering the time limit, the
M.E.R is lost)
1.2 – Side effects occur during M.E.R validation that need attention. If other parks do
not have these negative effects, the M.E.R is lost. Or compensating measures
are needed)
1.3 – If the air-traffic to oil or gas platforms is at risk, the wind park developer and the
platform owner need to consult each other. They need to resolve the problem or
the state will make a decision
1.4 - The location of the park is in direct conflict with the Delta commission advice.
The Delta commission made an advice on the climate sustainable design of the
Netherlands for the future. This includes location planning for use of the Sea.
March 2009:
Deadline for filing a complete Wbr and M.E.R report.
First quarter 2009:
Further developed subsidy requirements are developed and published (SDE).
Park developers get qualified when given a Wbr, a solid business plan, solid
financial plan and sufficient amount of knowledge and experience.
Recently, the developer Airtricity has been given the permission to develop wind
park “Breeveertien II” that will have a capacity of 350 MW 19 . An overview of the
current status of the initiatives for wind parks at sea can be found in the Appendix I.
December 2009:
Step 5: Subsidy claims need to be filed at the ministry of Economic Affairs.
19 Groen licht voor windparken op zee, Nu.nl website, accessed on 10-06-09
http://www.nu.nl/economie/1923076/groen-licht-voor-windmolenpark-op-zee.html
52

December 2009 – April 2010
Step 6: Subsidy claims are considered by the ministry using the known criteria,
developed in the first quarter of 2009. (Max. of 450 MW is subsidized)
April 2010:
SDE subsidy applied to 1 or 2 parks, with a budget restriction. Should the parks need
less subsidy to achieve 450 MW, the remaining subsidy will be used for more
capacity.
Until November 2012:
Step 8: Government ministries check the building and construction of the wind parks.
Wbr permits that did not lead to a complete park will be nullified.
The first step for wind at sea, committing to 950 MW in 2010 will be achieved with the current
policy and legislative procedures. However, to be able to get to the end goals of Schoon &
Zuinig, 6000 MW wind at sea by 2020 the procedures must be drastically improved. The
growth rate after 2010 would mean the commissioning of 550 MW of capacity each year from
2010 onwards. This rate of growth will mean a dramatic increase in SDE subsidy, as well as
faster implementation of procedures and legislation.
In the next paragraph I will describe some of the important stakeholders in the development
of wind at sea, and examine their experiences with the government and government policy
so far and relate this to the MSP theory.
3.3 Wind Energy in the Netherlands: A Multi-Stakeholder Approach
The government has stated that the commitment, knowledge and experience of market
actors and research centers are vital in the development of 6000 MW wind at sea in 2020 20 .
Both in the original Schoon & Zuinig plan and in the analysis for the feasibility of the 6000
MW goal this has been clearly stated as one of the preconditions. In the Sustainability
agreement, signed in 2007 and active till 2020, the government, represented by five
ministers and two secretaries of state, and representatives of the employer and employee
associations and MKB have signed a contract that included: “For the realization of the
ambitions the parties need each other. The government cannot do without market actors that
are entrepreneurial and take initiative, the market actors need consistent government policy
20 Reactie op kosten/ baten analyse 6000 Mw wind op zee, Minister van EZ Brinkhorst, 19-09-2005
53

and clear rules of the game to be able to make sound investments. Both government and
market have direct interest in a joint strategy for a smart and efficient contribution to the
climate problems by The Netherlands” and “Parties underline that far reaching commitment is
needed to achieve the goals of this agreement. …. The government policy will be aimed at
providing a maximum of certainty in making the goals, and also offer flexibility to the market
to make the most cost-effective measures” (Sectorakkoord Energie 2008 – 2020 –
Convenant tussen Rijksoverheid en de energiebranches in het kader van Schoon & Zuinig,
p. 2, complete contract in Appendix II in Dutch).
The sectoral agreement between government and the Energy sector for 2008 – 2020 is part
of the Sustainability agreement described above, and states that both parties should make a
joint plan for the realization of 6000 MW at 2020. I will use Stakeholder theory in order to
analyze how the cooperation between the market and the government has taken shape. The
goal of stakeholder analysis is to develop cooperation between the actors involved in
offshore wind development and develop cooperation. By cooperation, a successful outcome
is pursued.
Multiple Stakeholder Processes (MSPs) aim to bring together all major stakeholders in a new
form of communication, decision finding or decision making structure. They are based on
recognition of the importance of achieving equity and accountability in communication
between stakeholders; on democratic principles of transparency and participation, and aim to
develop partnerships and strengthen networks between and among stakeholders (Hemmati,
2002, p.24). MSPs can be valuable tools in the sustainability debate, as MSPs require a
process of dialogue and ultimate consensus-building of all stakeholders as partners.
Stakeholders can build relationships and knowledge which will enable them to innovate and
create solutions for the many challenges facing offshore wind energy. The values of a
successful MSP mean that government gathers all stakeholders for consultations, dialogue
and/or consensus-building and/or ongoing implementation, monitoring and evaluation
processes. However, MSPs should include the right partners, partners that have credibility,
interest and public support, groups with good information and fresh, creative ideas who can
add to the process and uphold an output-oriented focus. The State, as leader in the MSP,
needs to have a strong vision and practice empowering and collaborative leadership. This
will broaden the discussion and refrain from narrow minded goals of stakeholders to an
inclusive goal that will reap broader public support.
The wind energy sector in the Netherlands is very large and consists of an enormous amount
of companies, NGOs, government actors, foundations etc. This thesis focuses on
54

government policy and the effects and ramifications these policies have on the development
of offshore wind parks. In the next paragraph a number of influential stakeholders will be
described. Hereafter, their standpoints and role are explained with relation to government
policy as it is now. Their comments are analyzed and related to the MSP theory in order to
be able to see where the policies are performing adequate or not.
3.3.1 – Stakeholders in Offshore wind energy in The Netherlands
I have included the scheme shown in Figure 3.1 to aid in keeping the overview in the rest of
the chapter. These actors are involved in offshore wind parks, and have experience with in
the field and with the policy, the main goal of this thesis. I have ordered the stakeholders by
separating government and market positions, to be able to show the difference of interests
figuratively as well. NGOs fall in between this separation. First, I will introduce the actors in
the figure, then I will proceed to clarify their respective positions.
Government:
Senternovem: www.senternovem.nl
Figure 3.1 – Stakeholders in offshore wind energy
Government Market
Senternovem
TOW
Noordzeewind
Natuur&Milieu
/Kafka
NWEA
Prinses Amalia
Senternovem is an agency that is a part of the Ministry of Economic affairs. They are
responsible, on behalf of the government, to stimulate sustainable economic growth by
bridging the gap between market and government, both national and international.
Companies, institutions and governments can ask for advice and financial support.
55

Senternovem acts as the main access point to the government subsidies and legislature for
the market actors.
Strategiegroep Transitie Offshore:
The government has instituted a department of Energy Transition to influence the market, to
stimulate public-private cooperation and to develop an innovation agenda. This department
has formed a transition strategy that will cover the a long term strategy until 2020. It also
points the government on any policy shortcomings and guards consistency in policy and a
stabile development of new policy. The strategy group Transition Offshore (TOW) has put
together a strategy for the long term development of Offshore Wind Energy, published in
November 2007.
Market actors:
NWEA – www.nwea.nl
The NWEA (Netherlands Wind Energy Association) is a combination of all organizations and
companies that are active in the wind energy sector in the Netherlands. The goal of NWEA is
to persuade the government and corporate actors to actively improve wind energy. Members
of NWEA are developers of wind parks, producers, energy companies, consultancy bureaus,
research-facilities, maintenance companies, financial companies and suppliers. They have a
commission offshore that consists of the actors that issued initiatives for offshore parks and
this commission has the goal to contribute to stabile and continuous development of wind at
sea. The NWEA is also associated with EWEA, the European Wind Energy Association.
Noordzeewind (Shell & Nuon) – www.noordzeewind.nl
Noordzeewind is a collaboration between Shell and Nuon. The collaboration is specifically
set up for the development, construction and management of the offshore wind park in
Egmond aan Zee. Both companies are motivated to sustainability of energy, and think wind
is a important contribution.
Nuon is an energy company active in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. Nuon aims to
generate green electricity and contribute to sustainable energy. Shell on the other hand is
one of the biggest global energy companies, with their main activity in traditional fossil fuels.
They acknowledge the growing importance of renewable energy in the future. Remarkably,
Shell recently decided to stop investing in wind energy.
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The government (Ministry of Economic Affairs) is involved in the project in Egmond by
supporting it with funding as well as with a research project that will help future wind park
development. The location of the park has been realized by government research and
planning, and Noordzeewind won the tender and started developing the wind park. During
the whole process of developing and building the park, all problems and bottlenecks are
recorded as part of the study project.
Prinses Amalia Windpark (Econcern & Eneco) – www.prinsesamaliawindpark.eu
The Prinses Amalia Windpark is a joint venture from the sustainable energy group Econcern,
an investment corporation and energy company Eneco. Econcern is a holding company that
has the goal to provide sustainable energy for everybody. Next to the Netherlands, Econcern
is also involved in offshore wind energy in the United Kingdom, Belgium and Germany.
Eneco is one of three biggest energy companies of the Netherlands. Eneco’s key processes
are transport, trade and distribution of energy en related products and services. The
development of the Prinses Amalia Park started in 1998, after starting the process of getting
the necessary permits, the final permission was issued in 2001. Beginning 2005, Eneco and
the holding company sign the contract for building and exploiting the park. In 2008 the park
became fully operational. The Amalia park used an innovative financial construction to get
the necessary funds given that a large part is financed with loans from a number of banks.
The risks accompanied by the development of large-scale offshore are hedged by this
construction. The innovations of the financial construction include sharing risks with bank
coalition to hedge for cost-increases, mechanisms for realizing shorter loan periods, limiting
interest payments and guarantees in turbine delivery with the turbine producer. On top of
this, optimal use of subsidy schemes and long term insurance are innovations that increase
the effectiveness of the financial construction.
NGOs:
Stichting Natuur & Milieu (Zeekracht) – www.zeekracht.nl
Stichting Natuur & Milieu is a foundation that initiated Zeekracht (Seaforce), a non-profit
cooperation. Zeekracht tries to put the Netherlands back on the map with innovative clean
energy by participation of the Dutch public. Mass participation of civilians in energy
production is new in The Netherlands. The focus of the plan is on wind energy at sea, the
plan was put in action in 2008. Zeekracht has three parts, the first is a strong lobby of the
foundation to urge the government to quickly make a decision on 6000 MW by 2020 and also
issue the needed budgets.
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The second part is to involve civilians to build their own wind park. The third part is to form a
coalition of companies and organizations that commit themselves to building this park.
3.3.2 Problems with the policy
Noordzeewind
Figure 3.2 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy - Noordzeewind
Government Market
Senternovem
TOW
Noordzeewind
Natuur&Milieu
/Kafka
The OWEZ park is different from the other parks, because the development and planning
has been done for a great deal by the government. An important difference is that the
location of the park was already labeled as a location suitable for wind energy before a
market actor was involved in the construction of the actual park. An intensive monitoring and
evaluation system is developed to stimulate learning on technological, innovation and
environmental impacts as well as legislation. The findings are public and are published,
which allows for open access to information. The Noordzeewind team has described the
process of development of the park and had remarks on the procedures 21 . Important remarks
in this report include technical aspects of wind park development, but permit procedures and
subsidy schemes. Thes schemes have to be optimized and can greatly increase the
efficiency of the process for market actors. Also, a direct link to Wbr permit and SDE subsidy
is promoted as this takes away uncertainty for developers. Noordzeewind stresses that the
government should be responsible for location management due to the varying and important
stakes at the North Sea. The government should lead in taking responsibility in the location
planning at the North Sea, as market actors are not suitable for this task. This will also
greatly reduce the MER process as the locations are already reserved for wind, this way a
MER can be done more efficiently and keep the costs down.
21 Rapportage Proces vergunningverlening OWEZ – August 2007
NWEA
Prinses Amalia
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The monitoring and evaluation program is a very interesting construction and should be set
up with every offshore wind park. Learning and innovation are important drivers for
development and cost-effectiveness in an industry that is still in development. The very high
profile and high expectations offshore wind enjoys can only be met if the current initiatives
are very well planned and evaluated. However, Noordzeewind and OWEZ have a special
status as they enjoyed close cooperation with the government and knew of this project’s
details at the start of the tender. Other market actors that move into wind energy will be
reluctant to share information as this will damage their competitive position. Shell, one of the
partners in Noordzeewind, is very positive about the cooperation with the government on this
project, although procedures were at times slow and inefficient, a lot of improvement is made
on streamlining the procedures and permits. Shell also values the thorough procedures that
lead to the development of an offshore wind park as these decisions have large ramification
for the North Sea, the government’s budget and are developed for at least 30 years. This is a
process that needs careful planning and attention and a thorough and intensive preparation
also greatly influences the success of development in later stages. Together with a
monitoring program this will greatly improve the success of offshore wind energy in general.
For the OWEZ park, the MSP ground rules are well included in the development, government
created clear and concise plans for the park, looked for suitable market actors via tender and
has developed a fruitful cooperation. However, these findings are not supported by all
stakeholders.
Figure 3.3 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy - NWEA
Government Market
Senternovem
TOW
Noordzeewind
Natuur&Milieu
/Kafka
NWEA
Prinses Amalia
59

NWEA:
The NWEA, as the association representing market actors in wind energy has a vital role in
market cooperation. Various market actors have stated that the NWEA must play an
important role in the forming of policy. Being an industry association, the NWEA is not
susceptible for competition, as they represent the general interest of their following. Although
the NWEA is not the only association in wind energy, it certainly enjoys a high profile in the
market. The NWEA has provided a vision for offshore wind online on February 2008 22 . The
most dominant critic on the government policy is the lack of pull and the need for a coalition
approach to be able to construct policy that is accurate, efficient, has a broad base and takes
into account the wishes and needs of consumers of the policy, the market actors involved in
wind, in an early stage. More transparency in location studies and procedures, risks and
project planning is stressed in their reaction, aspects they miss in the government as an
credible partner. Market actors need better and more direct representation in the policy
development, and the NWEA is prepared to perform this role. However, they feel that the
government has not been committed to include market actors enough, and are unclear on
improvements to procedures as well as the role of wind park developers as active
participants in the forming of government initiatives to improve legislation and procedures.
Figure 3.4 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy – Natuur&Milieu
Government Market
Senternovem
TOW
Noordzeewind
Natuur&Milieu
/Kafka
NWEA
Prinses Amalia
22 Dossier Offshore – NWEA visie op toekomst offshore windenergie - http://www.nwea.nl/dossieroffshore#NWEA_visie
(accessed on 05-04-2009)
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Stichting Natuur & Milieu
Natuur & Milieu has issued a research into the critical points in the legislative procedures for
developing a wind park by the Kafka Brigade. They pointed out a number of problems that
developers face with the current policy, published in August 2008. Their recommendations
are on the technical ramifications of the current procedures, stressing the diffuse
responsibilities within the government and the inefficiency in contacting the government and
lack of clarity on the connection to the electricity grid. Their comment involves shifting the
responsibility for all offshore wind to the Ministry of Economic Affairs only to resolve this 23 .
The foundation also critiqued shifting targets on the part of the goverment, from having 6000
MW developed and operational to only committing to 6000 MW is an important step as this
will mean stretching the deadline from having built, to having planned. Furthermore, with the
goals clear, the pace and location study must be finished as soon as possible as this greatly
influence transparency and development patterns, which is lacking now. As it is now, a large
number of parties are waiting for the government to issue a longer term plan including
technical improvements in permits, but also, and most important, a clear strategy on
declaring wind locations as well as how market actors can apply for these locations and what
the details will be in procuring the tender for each location towards the complete 6000 MW.
We have identified a number of important stakeholders, as well as their respective positions
on the government policy surrounding offshore wind parks for the 950 MW that is being
developed for 2010, and the lack of MSP values that this policy shows. In the next paragraph
I will clarify what alterations are planned for the policy that involves the growth to 6000 MW,
and determine what improvements must be made solve the problems pointed out by the
stakeholders and government alike. First, I will describe the vision on the current policy by
the government itself.
23 Kafkabrigade – Quickscan Zeekracht – August 2008
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3.4 New policy creation for offshore wind parks
Figure 3.5 – Stakeholders in Offshore Wind Energy - TOW
The government has put together a platform for Energy Transition, that will advice on how to
make the transition to sustainable energy supply. The platform includes government,
companies, NGOs, think tanks, etc. in order to involve a great deal of stakeholders in the
decision process. Specifically for offshore wind energy, a strategy group Transition Offshore
Wind (TOW) has put together a report on how to realize 6000 MW by 2020. The strategy
group concludes that for the realization of 6000MW offshore wind in 2020 if a stable
environment for the development is created. Financial support from the government is
necessary, but this will decline as learning effects and innovation will support and increase
profitability of future wind parks, speeding up the process to cost-effective operation.
In optimizing these effects it is the task of the government is to create the right preconditions
for a transition to sustainable energy. There are 13 steps that should be undertaken to
successfully make the transition to 2020 and beyond, as stated in the TOW report. On top of
the TOW group, a recent effort is underway in the form of the commission Veenman, that is
created in 2009 to investigate opportunities for a better link between the market actors and
the government, and a possible coalition.
Government Market
Senternovem
TOW
Noordzeewind
Natuur&Milieu
/Kafka
NWEA
Prinses Amalia
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“Organisation”
1- Create a leading coalition of government and market actors that work on the basis of an
agreement to attain specified goals.
“Creating preconditions”
2- Finish the current round of 950 MW in 2011.
3- Issue a location study to give wind energy its own zones on the North Sea
4- Create and execute a new policy for large-scale offshore wind parks from 2012 on.
5- Create a platform for consultation for the various parties that are involved in the North Sea
planning
6- Create a clear and efficient allocation method for the whole process from issueing a request to
build a wind park to the realization.
7- Deliver on a stable system for government funding for sustainable energy.
8- Create netplanning for the transport of electricity (national & International)
9- Create a program to stimulate innovative development from R&D and implementation
experiences.
“Execution”
10- Create infrastructure for electricity at sea so the wind parks can be connected to the grid
11- Adapt the electrical infrastructure to facilitate the dynamics of wind electricity production.
12- Issueing of new wind parks in large units of 1000+ MW.
13- Design, finance, build and operate with attention to knowledge creation (implementation,
innovation, improvement).
Source: Strategiegroep Transitie Offshore Wind, November 2007 – Wind energie op Zee, Een transitiepad naar een
duurzame elektriciteitsvoorziening
The TOW advice is divided into three segments in order to move toward 6000 MW in 2020,
the first being organization, the advice stresses a coalition between market and government,
in line with the critique of NWEA. Creating preconditions for the capacity increase includes
steps that need to be fulfilled in order to make further development possible, stressing to
develop new policy for offshore wind parks after 2012, take control of location planning by
making this a government priority and streamline this process by setting up a platform for the
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various parties active in the North Sea. This platform should include departments like the
Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Minsitry of VROM, responsible or spacil planning and
environment, Defense, Rijkswaterstaat, that is responsible or planning and regulating the
North Sea and Fishery who all have an important claim on the North Sea territory 24 .
(SOURCE INTERVIEW) This will lead to a clear allocation method for the parks that should
be backed by a sufficient funding mechanism. Another important step is to account for the
netplanning, allowing electricity from the parks on the electricity grid. To improve innovation
and R&D in the industry, monitoring and evaluation programs must be coupled to each park
under development. Then, to meet the 6000 MW target in 2020, parks must be allocated in
batches of 1000MW+ capacities. We will look at recommendations by Senternovem on the
offshore wind policy and a SWOT analysis of the energy market in the Netherlands in the
next paragraph, before analyzing the value of the proposed improvements.
In the energy monitor for 2008 25 , a SWOT analysis is performed of the current energy
landscape in the Netherlands. The goals of the government are stated and critical steps are
formulated for offshore wind that further underline the TOW and market comments on current
procedures. The tasks for the government in the next 2 years are:
1- The government shall create conditions for offshore parks to be developed and built
in high volumes. The tenders for the parks will leave room for innovative concepts.
2- The government will arrange for a connection of the parks to the electricity grid.
3- The government will stimulate net-operators to innovate, and will create norms.
4- The government will research how investors in sustainable energy can get more
certainty, including the help of financial instruments.
24 Interview Dhr. E Buddenbaum – Directorate General for Energy and Telecommunicatios , Ministry of
Economic Affairs.
25 Energie Monitor 2008, Senternovem
Government Market
Senternovem
TOW
Noordzeewind
Natuur&Milieu
/Kafka
NWEA
Prinses Amalia
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While the government should also improve certainty for investors by looking into financial
instruments that might give more long term stability and transparency on costs and benefits
of offshore wind parks. The grid connection of offshore wind energy to the mainland is again
stressed, including decisions on the costs as well as where to place the responsibility for this
connection. Increasing scale of development and a focus on innovation and learning are
again underlined.
Further improvements are to be found in the SWOT analysis that was performed on the total
energy mix in the Netherlands. I have selected the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities
and Threats that are applicable to wind energy.
Strengths
- Good geographical position at sea, good
logistic infrastructure
- Knowledge infrastructure (Universities,
ICT) will lead to development of smart
grids
Weaknesses
- Lack of direction in
government policy
(Offshore wind)
- Lack of international
connection to EU policy
- Knowledge development
does not link to market
actors
- Lack of communication
and joint operation in
knowledge institutes and
the market
- Financing risks for new
technologies too high
- Permit structure for new
technologies is lacking
- Entrepreneurship is not
well developed
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Opportunities
- Climate change and the
need to take action is
widespread
- Energy dependency on
instable countries is seen
as a bigger problem
- High energy prices make
for increased cost-
efficiency of sustainable
alternatives
- Local environmental
characteristics can spark
solution-oriented
developments
Threats
- insufficient government
support in innovation
phase
- lack of results of
government policy and
unclear focus due to
insufficient knowledge in
energy innovation
- Lack of cooperation and
leadership threatens
innovation
- Scattered development of
sustainable energy harms
its position in relation to
fossil energy
The most important impediments to innovation include a lack of direction of the government,
also financially, that damages market development of sustainable energy by entrepreneurs.
Large scale development of offshore wind energy is impeded by lack of confidence in the
government’s performance (locations, connection to grid) to successfully deploy these in
time. As long as there is a lack of clarity, the investment climate will be negative.
The government has put out the guidelines for new policy, which do include some of the
recommendations of the stakeholders. The government will point out “wind areas” to be
specified in the National Waterplan 2009 that is to be released at the end of 2009. The wind
areas are zones reserved for wind energy that should be able to provide 6000 MW, with a
total surface of 1000-1500 km2. The decision for determining wind areas is made by MER
and the National Waterplan. These areas will be hold free, and are directly linked to the SDE
subsidy. This effectively creates zones that will be tendered to market actors and can be
developed to the adequate capacity. Periodically, the government opens one of these areas
by a tender for subsidy and permits. The market actor that gets the tender will get a certain
period (that can be discussed) to develop, build and operate the park. The government will
allow smaller parties to be included in the tender, although they will not be able to directly
build 1000MW+, the phased development will allow them more equal positions in tender
procedures. In order to be able to closely monitor and control the winning parties are
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committed to the park development, the government has the ability to retract the tender in
case not enough progress is made. The fundamental aspect in the tender is to issue the park
to the developer that can create the most capacity using the least subsidy. Coupled to this
policy is a monitoring process that will have to allow the government to be able to check the
cost and investments needed for realization of the park. Market actors will have to agree with
huge transparency with the government on their part. The market actor that gets the license
issues a Wbr (incl. MER) permit procedure, the government will issue the permit, by fine
tuning the characteristics with the National Waterplan. This policy is an enormous
improvement as the government will already issue the suitable locations, that has worked
very well for the OWEZ, and accounted for much frustration for the other parks. Now, MER
procedures will be less costly and the interested parties will not overload the application
procedure by issuing a huge number of locations for permit and subsidy, as these locations
are already specified. The location study will also include an initiative to link a permit and
SDE scheme to the specific location, this will allow for developers to know beforehand
approximately how much subsidy they can receive.
However, creating this policy will mean that the laws for the Dutch Exclusive Economic Zone
(EEZ) will have to be changed, since in the current law, no private actor can reserve any part
of the EEZ for exclusive economic rights. Amending the Dutch laws will take approximately
1,5 years to complete before this policy can be active, so end of 2011. Next to amending the
law, a recent report has been issued that specifies the costs for updating the electricity
infrastructure and connect offshore wind parks to the grid. The costs are expected to be
between 5 and 11 billion Euro 26 . The wind park developers are looking at costs of 1,4 billion
Euro’s in all scenario’s, and the costs for the electricity grid connection varies substantially,
from 3,2 billion Euro in case of clustered location close to shore, to more then 10 billion Euro
in case of offshore parks far away from the shore, using a more advanced technology to
make the connection (Eindrapport Net op Zee, Ministerie van EZ, pag. 16).
To put this in perspective, the most likely scenario of 6000 MW being realized in 2020 will
mean an increase of energy costs for every household of 25 Euro each year for a duration of
20 years. These are enormous amounts that will also asks a considerable financial sacrifice
of the energy consumers (ibid. p. 31). The minister is studying the report and will react on the
findings at the end of 2009, irrespective of her conclusion, the amount are enormous and, if
added to the cost and benefit analysis described in Chapter 2 on the 6000 MW goal greatly
increase the costs of large scale offshore wind.
26 Hoofdrapport Net op Zee – Ministerie van Economische Zaken -
http://www.ez.nl/dsresource?objectid=164677&type=PDF (accessed on 22-06-2009)
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The adaptations that are proposed to the current procedures do look promising and take
away considerable critique by market actors and research institutes. So far, no action has
been undertaken on coalition building with the other stakeholders to further include them in
the policy making process. The commission Veenman that has been given the task to
investigate the possibility for a coalition between market and government and how this has to
be set up will look into the complaints on lack of pull and lack of transparency by the
government on including the market in policy and legislature development. Surprisingly, I
have found in my interviews that both the government and market actors do feel that the
government and the market have developed into a much more cooperative relation and that
although no official body has been erected, cooperation and commitment of both government
and market has been greatly improved: the leadership, commitment and transparency issues
have diminished greatly since the critical reports on the current 2010 procedures. The
government has actively engaged the market and this effort has certainly had fruitful results
in the shared goals of government and market.
These findings support the MSP values, the new policy development has succeeded in
creating more commitment and trust and has been able to include credible partners. The
critiques of these partners has been taken into account for the future procedures and much
improvement has been made to work on joint development. There are however, a number of
crucial obstacles for the 6000 MW in 2020 goal, part of which lie outside of the policy arena,
which I will elaborate on in the next chapter, but part of the obstacles can be contributed to a
remaining lack of transparency and leadership.
We have already determined that large interest of the market exists for offshore wind and the
large scale development of offshore parks. The government has to create the right conditions
and prospects for these actors to actively develop the potential for offshore wind. However,
this is where market actors are facing obstacles. The goal of 6000 MW by 2020 is clear, but,
as recent developments again show, development of these kind of scale require very high
costs that will be faced by the society as a whole, a territory where the government has to
create clarity, market actors are missing a strong vision here. The goals are clear for the next
round, but the government has so far not been able to provide a valuation of the feasibility of
these goals. 6000 MW by 2020 might be overly optimistic, there is no plan for what will
happen in the worst case scenario’s. What will be the outlook when costs rise (like the recent
report on the grid connection)? There is no realistic and strong vision on the risks associated
with these large scale developments and the commitment of the government to continue the
development of offshore wind even if these excess costs will have to be faced.
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Until there is no realistic plan or alternative scenario’s, investors and developers will not take
the initiative as the risk of these investments are way to high. For such a complex process as
offshore wind, a more comprehensive and balanced approach is needed to effectively move
towards large scale development, the 6000 MW goal is important to uphold, but 2020 is
proving to be a very short time span to increase to such a scale with the risks that exist in
offshore wind today. The current situation is one of “more haste, less speed” and does not
comply with the care and attention that should be upheld in severe processes as large scale
offshore wind.
3.5 - Conclusions
In this part of my thesis I have analyzed the Schoon & Zuinig program that has been set up
by the Dutch government to adhere to the 2020 goals for offshore wind energy. The program
uses five policy instruments; market incentives, norms, instruments for innovation, temporary
stimulus and international climate diplomacy. All five instruments are relevant to this thesis,
but the most notable instrument is the temporary stimulus instrument as offshore wind
energy is not yet cost-effective and investment and development of offshore wind parks need
temporary stimulus for their future success.
I have looked at the instruments the government has erected especially for offshore wind
energy, the SDE subsidy and the accompanying Wbr permit and possible EIA contribution,
as well as the implementation of these instruments. Also, Multi Stakeholder Theory is
introduced, and the most important stakeholders for this research have been identified. The
respective positions of the stakeholders with regard to the current permit and policy
procedures have been mapped and compared to get a clear picture of the problems of the
current policy that the selected stakeholders have identified and that withhold an effective
development of offshore wind parks.
If we look at the comments on the policy, we can see that a large part of these arise from
unclear procedures and expectations, policy inefficiency, lack of trust and uncertainty that are
experienced by the market actors, which are also found in government publications. These
problems are directly related to the lack of collaboration and effective leadership by the
government in the first round of wind parks with a 950 MW capacity. As we can conclude
from the policy analysis, the problems that exist and the lack of a improvement in the recent
period, show that the MST values are explicitly suited to resolve these frustrations with the
current results.
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Large part of the current problems can be resolved if market actors and other stakeholders
are better included in the formation of policy and the problems that are faced in the
development of wind parks. The analysis and recent developments have also unveiled major
threats to the feasibility of the 6000 MW goal, as the grid connection is very expensive and
laws have to be changed to be able to move towards better procedures, which has a 1,5 year
minimum duration that increases uncertainty. The intensity of the investments and initiatives
to be able to guarantee 6000MW by 2020 is overwhelming.
With a lack of clear process leadership, and no apparent clear, realistic and effective
approach to the large scale development of offshore wind, the government can seriously
hamper the fulfillment of the specified goals.
In the Chapter 4, I will further analyze which inducement and blocking mechanisms exist in
the development of offshore wind parks in the Netherlands, and I will indentify the key policy
issues that need to be faced in order to be able to achieve an offshore capacity of 6000 MW
by 2020.
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Chapter 4 Technological Innovation System for Offshore Wind Energy Policy
Introduction
In the previous chapters I have elaborated on the position wind energy has in the current
energy market and the potential offshore wind energy has in contributing to a sustainable
energy supply for the Netherlands. The current operational parks and the planned projects
were described and an overview of the current policies and legislation around offshore wind
parks was provided. Various stakeholders and their respective positions towards these
policies and legislation were introduced and their problems were identified.
In this chapter, I will further analyze the policy for offshore wind energy as well as the
desirability of the 6000 MW in 2020 goals by using the TIS approach. TIS allows me to
identify what factors contribute to - and what factors block the forming of the desired policy
wanted by the stakeholders and government.
4.1 Technological Innovation System – Offshore wind policy in the Netherlands
The TIS approach presents a scheme of analysis which provides a practical framework to
assess system performance and the identification of factors influencing this performance.
The TIS approach allows me to include additional information and input obtained in
interviews and literature study to include the most recent relevant information and forge a
policy advice on the future policy for offshore wind parks.
Figure 4.1 – TIS Scheme
Source: Bergek et al (2008) - Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems: A scheme of
analysis, Research Policy 37. pp. 407-429
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Step 1: Define TIS in focus
The first step is the operationalization of the TIS in focus, in this case offshore wind energy
policy, with specific focus on the Netherlands. I will focus on a knowledge field (as opposed
to a product/artifact) of the policy and the policy improvements. Policy is of grave importance
at this stage of the development. We have seen that the first round of 950 MW has been
nearly completed, but the permits, legislation and procedures were unfit, inefficient and
unclear for the 950 MW capacity, they will have to be changed dramatically in order to be
able to guide the process of moving towards 6000 MW of capacity in 2020.
Offshore wind energy is an industry that is in it’s infancy, large uncertainties still exist in
technologies of turbines, foundations, suppliers of parts, maintenance, connection to the
electricity grid, cost-effectiveness, etc. Although these factors are also of grave importance
to the success of offshore wind in the Netherlands, my approach will be on policies and
legislature, that will need to create the right conditions for the development of the entire
industry. Getting this process optimal for economies to develop is a crucial first step to be
able to increase the scale and move towards the 2020 goal and the main goal of this
research.
Step 2: Identifying the structural components of the TIS
The structural components of the TIS for offshore wind energy policy in the Netherlands have
already been introduced in Chapter 3, where I have used a MST approach and identified the
actors that are already active in the field. I have included them in a figure below. In the table
3.2 I have listed a number of actors, networks and institutions that are involved directly or
indirect by publications, research or reports relevant to my subject. Most of the actors have
already been introduced in the research and are not posted to be exhaustive, I merely wish
to point out the width of the industry and the variety of actors that have been included directly
or indirectly in this research, government, market and independent research institutes make
up the actors, networks and institutions included in the TIS and this research.
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Figure 4.2 – Stakeholders in offshore wind energy policy
Table 4.1 – Actors, Networks & Institutions in the TIS
Actors Networks Institutions
Airtricity Energie Transitie Ministerie van EZ
Econcern Kafka Brigade Ministerie van V&W
Eneco NWEA Rijkswaterstaat
Nuon TOW TU Delft
Shell We@Sea ECN
Senternovem
Stichting Natuur & Milieu
Government Market
Senternovem
TOW
Ministeries
Noordzeewind
Step 3: Mapping the functional pattern of the TIS
The next step of the TIS approach I is to determine the functional pattern of the TIS and
ascertaining to what extent the functions are filled in and determine how the TIS is
performing according to some key processes. For the performance of offshore wind energy
policy, we will determine how we define performance and what the outcome is for these
policies. In the following section I will explain the processes and their role in assessing the
functional pattern of offshore wind energy policy.
Natuur&Milieu
/Kafka
NWEA
Prinses Amalia
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1- Knowledge development & Diffusion
Knowledge development and diffusion is at the heart of the TIS, this function deals with the
knowledge base and the evolution of the knowledge. This TIS is specifically focused on
policy, therefore knowledge development and diffusion is specially geared towards the
creation of policy, the evolution of policy and the diffusion of both policy creation and
evaluation.
Although a large number of parties are directly affected by policy, only the government
agencies are involved in policy creation, with few parties (ECN, Senternovem) that influence
policy indirectly. The market actors, mentioned above, that deal with the policy and rely on
good policy and the accompanying subsidy are not included in the policy negotiations and
forming at all. The only communication that occurs is ex post, limiting flexibility and ability of
market actors to engage the government in the forming of the policy.
Government has in the past been ill-communicative and unclear until the final policies are
already formed and procedures are in a well developed stadium 27 .
Knowledge development is very high, as a great deal of scientific research is done in
offshore wind energy and policy surrounding this. In the previous chapter, a detailed
overview of the policies involved is given. The development of the policies and procedures is
being studied by all the stakeholders described there.
There are also a great number of studies within the Dutch government, several ministries are
closely involved in this, examples are the Ministery of Defence (location of windparks),
Ministry of Rijkswaterstaat (North Sea planning), Ministry of Economic Affairs (SDE), Ministry
of VROM (Developer of Schoon en Zuinig). All these ministries have their own policy
developers as well as specialized research institutes like ECN to aid in developing policy.
Market knowledge has been limited, due to the fact that offshore wind parks are a relatively
new phenomenon. However, in the Egmond aan Zee Nearshore park a research program is
closely monitoring the development of the park and the procedures surrounding this. This
research program is a joint effort of park owners Shell and Nuon and the government.
Although much is unclear for parks that are further out the coastline, policies and permit
procedures are being developed to cater to the needs of all relevant actors.
One of the problems with this TIS is knowledge diffusion, as we have seen from the policy
analysis and problems associated with this in the previous chapter, the government has not
been able to include the other stakeholders in the process to a satisfactory level in the
current procedures.. Most stakeholders state that they lack communication, direction and
information from the government. Policies were unclear, procedures are slowed down and
27 NWEA – reactie Conceptadvies basisbedragen duurzame elektricteitsproductie 2008-2009, 21-11-2007
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unsatisfactory. However, the new round of policy that is now being developed shows
improvement on these aspects as a much better cooperation is created with market actors
and government, but much improvement is needed to expand this further and translate it into
successful policy.
2- Influence on direction of search
The direction of search function within the TIS posits that, for a TIS to develop new firms and
organizations have to enter it. There must be incentives for firms and organizations to do so.
New entrants offer new insights, new interests and different views to wind energy policy and
what the policy needs to include in order to be successful.
Inclusion of new entrants in the TIS for policy creation in offshore wind parks is problematic
for a number of reasons. First of all, wind parks will have effects on a great deal of factors,
many of which have not been studied yet (f.e safety on sea, effects on nature, effects on
wildlife, competition with oil and gas fields in the North Sea, shipping lanes, energy grid
connection,) all of which need to be taken into account in policy. Of these considerations,
some will be confidential, which limits the potential for cooperation.
More entrants in the policy making process will slow this down, and market actors need to be
credible as partner, market actors being represented by an association as NWEA is
preferred. This limits internal competition and ensures a broad focus. In terms of the
development of the TIS, inclusion of market actors is vital for the development of effective
policy, in line with MST principles, cooperation yields efficiency, ownership and commitment.
Market actors and policy makers will have to engage in close cooperation in order to develop
better policy, that also suits the needs of the market actors that rely on government stimulus
and policy to develop offshore wind parks. We have seen that this has improved in the last
months during the forming of new policy for the next round starting at 2012, that must lead to
6000MW. The government has formalized their attention to a strong coalition by erecting the
taskforce Windenergy on sea lead by Mr. Veenman that will investigate how the 2020 goals
can be met and how to optimize the role of the market. 28
28 Ministry of Economic Affairs – 19-05-2009- Taskforce Windenergie op zee -
http://www.ez.nl/Actueel/Pers_en_nieuwsberichten/Persberichten_2009/Mei_2009/Taskforce_windenergie_op_zee
(accessed on 21-05-2009)
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3 – Entrepreneurial Experimentation
The entrepreneurial experimentation step has to do with the ability for experimentation that is
allowed due to efficient policies in the development of offshore wind energy, since nobody
really has any experience with offshore wind energy on such a large scale, this step is
important to perform but also very abstract. Innovation and learning are key processes that
need to be fostered by government stimuli like the EIA, the focus on innovation in SDE and
permit procedures and the effects this has on new technologies and it’s applications in
offshore wind.
Areas where innovation is key for large scale implementation include foundations In deeper
seas, maintenance operations that need to be improved to be able to suffice for larger
turbines that are further out to sea. Port capacity needs to be expanded dramatically, even a
port at sea is under investigation, and fabricators of turbines need to design larger machines
to place them in open seas. The new offshore parks will also have to comply to EU rules and
regulations and large offshore parks will have to take into account the plans for a possible
EU supergrid to connect UK, Denmark and Dutch initiatives into one looped system, this is
still far away but it is an example of the importance offshore wind has for the Netherlands
and Europe.
The large scale development for 2020 has created enormous demand on turbine
manufacturers that will supply large, reliable turbines. Now, there are only a small number of
firms that can supply these, Vestas, Siemens, General Electric and Enercon, governments
should also take into account any monopolies that may arise by the focus on large scale
projects that will need proven models, limiting competition to only the renowned suppliers,
that might also limit experimentation and diversification that is needed to develop a vibrant
industry.
4 - Market formation
Offshore wind is still in a very early stage of development in the Netherlands, only two parks
are active today, of which one has an experimental status (OWE). Offshore wind is not yet
cost-effective, the CPB has calculated that, in the optimal situation, offshore wind energy will
be cost-effective in 2025, without accounting for the grid connection costs. However,
reaching cost-effectiveness depends on a large number of factors that are outside the control
of the Dutch government. The EU ETS system needs to be fully operational with a clear
development of CO2 emission costs, the oil price will have to be relatively high as this will
urge actors to increase interest into renewable, interest rates and inflation will have to be low
to have a reliable investment climate.
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Other uncertainties include the grid connection for offshore wind, locations for windparks in
the North Sea resulting from the NWP and the results of the ECN/KEMA study into budget
requirements for 6000 MW capacity creation (how much MW can we realize for what
amount?) , costs for maintenance and operation of offshore wind parks in deeper waters.
The market for offshore wind parks is still in a learning phase, also with regard to policy
development. The market actors rely on government support and policy formation to be able
to invest in the joint goal of sustainable offshore wind parks, and expect efficient and
effective policies and procedures. Untill now, the government has not been able to deliver on
these aspects as tension and criticism is mounting out of the market on the current
procedures.
The interest from market parties is still very high, judging by the enormous amount of interest
in the tenders for offshore wind parks, and the multitude of actors engaged in the permit
procedures, recent developments show improvement on the critiques..
Both operators of the current operational parks have recently been in the news. Shell,
partner in Noordzeewind with Nuon, and operator of the OWE park has stated that they will
stop all further investment into wind energy. Shell clarified to have a lack of trust in the
profitability of wind energy and will delay investment until wind energy has a more promising
outlook 29 , in my interview, the director of offshore wind operations stated that this is a
strategic decision of Shell that is not directly resulting from the situation in the Netherlands.
The decision to quit further investment was also effected by competition with other forms of
CO2 reduction, like CO2 storage and Biomass/Biofuels. Shell is looking for scale and the
other techniques are more interesting globally at this moment.
The operator of the Prinses Amalia Park, Econcern, has recently filed for bankruptcy, and
have received a temporary credit from the government because of their position. Econcern
plays a vital role in the attainment of the Schoon en Zuinig goals. At this moment, Eneco, the
other partner in the Amalia windpark is looking for a partner to take over Econcern 30 .
Although offshore wind energy has a high profile, and both government and market actors
are involved and show high commitment to the development of more offshore capacity, there
still exists a lot of uncertainty in the market formation process of this form of energy.
Next to policy problems that have been analyzed in the previous chapter, the main market
actors in the current parks are pulling out of the market. However, both the government and
market actors do not see a threat to the 6000 MW goals, as they feel that the interest is
widespread and a large number of other actors remain. A vital, healthy market sees changes
and mergers and acquisition on a regular basis.
29 Shell “worstelt” met winsten windenergie en stopt ermee – Volkskrant, 17-06-2009
30 Essent en Eneco azen op Econcern – Financieel Dagblad, 23 mei 2009
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5- Legitimation
Mapping legitimation includes analyzing the legitimacy of the TIS in the eyes of the
stakeholders and the activities that may increase legitimacy. We can conclude that the TIS
that is analyzed here, specified on offshore wind energy policy, enjoys a very high profile.
Government has presented ambitious plans for offshore wind energy, in line with goals that
have been formulated on the European level, the 2020 goals.
The specific goals for wind energy (6000 MW by 2020) have been formulated and the
government and the energy market have committed to these goals.
However, we have seen form the comments on the policy surrounding offshore wind energy
that the alignment between policy and the market needs leaves a lot to be desired. The
problems that have been encountered in the past procedures have lead to strong opposition
of the market actors, with two of the main stakeholders pulling out of wind energy altogether.
As we have already seen in the “direction of search” function, the government has a leading
role in creating the right conditions for offshore wind energy to develop. SO far, the results
have been met (950 MW in 2010), but serious comments on the procedures and the
realization of parks for attaining 6000 MW in 2020 have been raised. Until now, a lot of the
comments have not been resolved, leading to further lock in and uncertainty for the
stakeholders.
The government should open up communication and integrate the market stakeholders in the
formation of policy to increase legitimacy, this has been acted upon, and for the next policy
creation actors are more positive, but the government still needs to fulfill their promises in the
next months and deliver on them.
6– Resource mobilization
Any TIS needs to mobilize and commit a number of resources, forms of capital and assets to
keep a TIS developing and innovating and add to a high profile that makes any TIS
successful. This is not different for offshore wind energy, in the following part we will look into
human capital, financial capital and complementary assets with regard to moving to 6000
MW in 2020.
Mobilization of human capital in the TIS for offshore wind energy policy has been
considerable and will not be a limiting factor for the development of the TIS, it can be
problematic as the high profile offshore wind energy puts enormous strain on the government
departments. The high profile of offshore wind drains resources and takes government
officials away from policy creation to dialogue, media enquiries and research projects.
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Although this interest is important to further develop the offshore wind policy, this does strain
the governments departments.
Next to the departments, the government has also issued a large number of research
groups, and taskforces to further study the future prospects of offshore wind and policy
implications as well as consulting market actors for critiques and input. Especially for the new
rounds the government has improved coalition forming with the market.
Mobilization of financial capital is much more troublesome, as large uncertainties exist on just
how much budget the government is willing to commit to offshore wind. As described before,
the costs of 6000 MW in 2020 are expected to be astronomically high, ranging from 8 billlion
to 16 billion Euro, with an increase in energy prices expected at minimum 25 Euro per
household per year for the next 20 years. Although the government has stated to fully comply
to the stated goals, these recent developments increase the budget dramatically while
possible delays in procedures further heighten the risk for attaining the 2020 goal.
The current economic crisis has also made banks very cautious for lending money out to
long-term, high risk projects like offshore wind parks. Financing problems already led to the
bankruptcy of E-concern, this hampers developers with a relatively small budget that will
need outside capital for developing the large parks required for making 6000 MW.
On top of this, the Dutch government and Shell also pointed out in the interviews that the
goals for 2020 also put a strain on suppliers of parts and technologies for the wind parks.
7- Development of positive externalities
The development of positive externalities is determined for a great deal by new entrants, that
can strengthen a TIS and improve benefits of further developing a TIS for all members. The
functional profile described above derives it’s strength from the ability to resolve
uncertainties, improve political power and increase information, learning and innovation
processes.
We have seen that the TIS for offshore wind energy policy is improving on knowledge
diffusion, the government has improved on joint development and coalition building.
The need for monitoring and evaluation is shared by all parties, but it has to be seen in what
way market actors allow possible competitive information to be included and widely shared.
However, the government has put out numerous researches and created a dialogue with all
relevant actors in the market and in research institutions to allow learning and advice to
shape the discussion and the forming of new policy, efforts are also made to include the
market as much as possible for the 2020 goal.
Innovation is a key process that the policy should foster, however, there also lies a huge
challenge as much of the needed innovations are new, unknown and the goals do put
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considerable strain on the pace of development. Furthermore, much of the needed
developments lie outside of the direct scope of the TIS and also require immense
investments and budgetary commitments of all the actors but especially the government as
leader of the TIS, responsible for policy to create a growing industry. There is still no clarity
on just how committed the government is with the looming costs developments of the last
weeks.
It is the intensity of investment that makes the resource mobilization troublesome, the
enormous amounts coupled to substantial unknowns and an economic crisis present hurdles
that will cost effort to decide on while the deadlines are short. Further procedural changes
that need to be crafted to create succesfull policy also present challenges to the 2020 goal.
Step 4: Asses the functionality of the TIS and set process goals
In the fourth step, we will look into how well the TIS is performing. Comparing offshore wind
policy development to other, similar processes and taking into account the phase of
development of the TIS, I will try to infer how the offshore wind energy policy is performing
and if this policy is suitable to be able to facilitate the move towards 6000 MW in 2020.
The process goals for offshore wind energy have already been clarified in the 2020 goal of
6000 MW. The government must create policy that allows market actors to develop large
scale offshore wind parks with a combined capacity of 6000 MW.
Offshore wind energy as a large scale industry is still very much in it’s infancy, and policy that
will effectively stimulate its development is also untried and untested as the technology and
the industry is still new and under development, this makes policy creation to cater to the
needs of all the stakeholders an enormous challenge. We have seen from the current
development of 950 MW that policy was facing a lot of critique because of it’s inefficiency,
lack of transparency and procedural delays.
Offshore wind energy is a new industry that is still in development and large uncertainties
exist in the exploitation of the to-be-developed parks. Large offshore capacity needs
innovation in foundation technology for turbines, as stronger foundations are needed for
deep sea locations. Turbines are still developing and growing, needing stronger foundation
and maintenance. In order to be able to maintain the parks, new port capacity must be
developed and large infrastructure must be erected at sea in order to facilitate electricity
delivery to land. The electricity infrastructure needs to be updated and expanded in order to
cope with the increased load. The economic crisis has made financing options more difficult.
The large coalitions between banks needed to source the necessary development funds from
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are more difficult to complete as banks are more risk averse and less likely to loan the huge
sums of money needed. Another uncertainty is cost-effectiveness of offshore wind parks.
Park developers will only invest in offshore parks if their investment will be covered in a
reasonable term by the commercial exploitation of the wind park. However, cost-
effectiveness is dependent on the development of the EU ETS, as the premium on CO2
emmissions will initiate a market for emmissions. CO2 emmissions will be very costly as the
emitter will be liable to a premium on every gram emmitted. The higher this premium will be,
the more offshore wind parks are an interesting option as these parks are emmission free.
The CO2 price is however largely dependent on the development succes of the EU ETS, so
far, no definite CO2 price has been agreed upon, leaving much unclear for the near future.
Much of the risks that offshore wind energy faces in its development can not be influenced by
government itself, with recent examples in the economic crisis. The reaction to the crisis was
an increase in budget and capacity goals from 450 MW to 950 MW by 2010 adding to fast
paced further development and growth.
The government, with its open enthusiasm is running the risk of overpacing the
developments, the high expectations for offshore wind need to be met with enthusiasm, but
also with a coherent, thorough and relentless initiative in the quality of legislature and
procedures, market formation, fair competition and common objectives. An independent
study in 2006 that looked into the cost-effectiveness of offshore wind and its potential for the
Netherlands concluded that the 6000 MW goals for 2020 are very progressive and a slower
phasing of the capacity growth is to be preferred. (CBP/ECN, Maatschappelijke Kosten
Baten Analyse, 2006, p.12). Slower development to 6000 MW will allow for more time to get
a better grip on the risks mentioned above (predominantly the importance of the CO2
emission price), and will allow for a more gradual innovation and legislation development
also closely connected to the developments of the fossil fuel market, since the price
development of oil and gas does not render offshore wind cost effective in the near future. A
more gradual development also lowers the losses and budget needed for government
stimulus measures. A very important conclusion of the study was that with all the uncertainty
in offshore wind, this still is to be preferred over large scale biomass, the other renewable
source for The Netherlands next to wind. This finding demonstrates the importance of wind
energy for the renewable energy development in the Netherlands. (Ibid. p.113)
Costs of the 6000 MW goal by 2020 are enormous, in the most positive scenario, the costs
for this goal are expected to be 3 billion Euro, while a more gradual approach of 6000 MW in
2030 leading to a loss of 945 Million Euro. In the best case scenario, offshore wind will
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achieve cost-effectiveness at 2025. The key findings of the study are included in the
Appendix X.
It is important to note that these findings date from 2006 and does not take into account the
costs for the connection of the offshore wind parks with the on land electricity grid. Just
recently the government decides that the current grid operator, TenneT will have to develop
the necessary adjustments. A recent report predicted the costs of this connection to be
anywhere between 5 and 10 billion Euro, adding up a huge amount of costs to an already
very expensive policy goal. In a best case scenario, the current goal of 6000 MW in 2020 will
cost the state 8 billion Euro, an enormous investment that needs appropriate planning,
procedures, legislature and initiative of government and other stakeholders involved in its
development.
The Netherlands are not the only country with these high expectations for offshore wind
energy, a large number of countries are working on the large scale application for this source
of energy. The UK, Germany, Denmark and Belgium are countries with similar plans that can
be a direct competition to the Dutch initiatives. The market actors that want to develop
offshore wind capacity are also looking to the development in other countries, and can
relocate their efforts to the country which offers the best possible prospects regarding
capacity and stimulus policy. Although some countries are moving ahead of the Netherands,
these countries experience similar problems, limiting the influence of intergovernmental
competition, nevertheless, any development hers should be carefully monitored by the Dutch
government.
Step 5: Identify Inducement and Blocking Mechanisms
Now that we have mapped the functional pattern of the TIS and pointed out critical areas for
improvement and development as well as the risks associated with the plans, we can device
the inducement and blocking mechanisms that influence the policy process and thus the
success of growth to 6000 MW capacity of offshore wind energy in 2020.
Figure 4.3 illustrates the most prolific inducement and blocking mechanisms and their
interplay.
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Figure 4.3 – TIS for offshore wind energy policy
Adapted from: Bergek et al (2008) - Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems: A
scheme of analysis, Research Policy 37. pp. 422
We can identify 4 main inducement mechanisms for this TIS. The high interest and profile
that offshore wind enjoys influences market formation due to wide interest of all sorts of
stakeholders that want to take part in large scale offshore wind and contribute to the policy
process, directly and indirectly. The great number of researches and policy documents on
offshore wind and the impact of large scale use of this form of energy has brought together
all relevant actors in the discussion, diversifying the inputs and leading to healthy push and
pull factors for new policy procedures.
Since the conception of offshore wind plans and the policies for the first round of currently
950 MW to be developed by 2010, a lot of critique and comment have been formulated on
the procedures surrounding the proposed development. The most consistent was the lack of
cooperation and transparency of the government in the procedures. In this research I have
found that this has been considerably improved to a point where all stakeholders are
consulted and included in the process of moving towards large scale development. The
government has done well in amending critical weak points in their procedures and have
delivered on much of the critiques of the market, that leads to constructive focus on future
development instead of the procedural mess of the current round. The government has taken
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an active approach that is valued by market actors and created increased trust in
cooperation.
The 2020 targets and the Schoon & Zuinig program are clear in their targets, and offer good
guidance to the role for offshore wind energy in the future energy supply for the Netherlands,
accompanying subsidies and other stimulus tools are developed and expanded to aid a fast
development and the inclusion of relevant market actors. The efforts that other countries are
undertaking to pursue a similar large scale development of offshore wind parks further
stimulates a coherent development throughout Europe that can benefit the Dutch effort as
well as prove to be competition, but competition also forces governments to device efficient
and effective policy and procedures that will benefit all the stakeholders in terms of
innovation, learning and the need for continuous improvement.
There are also a number of important blocking mechanisms that hamper development of
good quality policy and procedures, first of all, the EU ETS and accompanying CO2 price is
not operational and the future success of this system is very unclear and hamper long term
certainty for investors and developers, and credibility of the cost-effectiveness of offshore
wind energy as a whole in the long term. The government can not control this process and
can only wait for results on this important issue. Furthermore, there are still a lot of unknows
for large scale offshore wind to be a reality that may need extensive investments. These
investments will, for a large part, have to be done by the government. The recent reports on
the costs for grid connection, that has not been accounted for earlier, add to the magnitude
of the initiative and the government has not been clear on just how financially committed they
are when faced with delays and budget increases. In this uncertainty, holding on to the 6000
MW goals is also allowing less time for innovation and learning to take place in a natural
development, that strains the ability of suppliers and the supporting industries to be able to
have sufficient time to create solutions to the new challenges that offshore energy faces
them with
The needed amendments to policy, legislation and laws that are set up to regulate the Dutch
energy initiatives on the North Sea (i.e. the proposed amendment of the Water wet) also
increase risks for delays, further increasing pressure on the deadlines and capacity goals.
These blocking mechanisms have a very strong influence on the success of the policy
making process and the only way the government can try to take away uncertainty is to be
more transparent on uncertainties, risks and impediments that they are facing in their
process of policymaking for offshore wind energy. Now, the 6000 MW goal is a fixed
outcome that has become a buzzword for the ambitions of the government. But market
actors, investors, developers and energy companies need a realistic, honest and complete
picture on the goals, but more importantly on what are the bumps in the road towards these
goals. This has not been included in the debate in a satisfactory manner and this may lead to
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a devaluation of the ambitious development plans of the government and loss of much
needed initiative and commitment of the market actors. More transparency will inform market
actors better and allow them to have a position where not ambitions are clear, but the
discussion is lead by the reality of the current phase of large scale offshore wind energy as a
solution to realizing a large share of renewable energy as well as a leading energy industry in
the Netherlands.
Step 6: Specify Key policy issues
The analysis of the inducement and blocking mechanisms above has resulted in four distinct
key policy issues that need to be addressed in order to device successful policy for future
large scale development of offshore wind energy in the Netherlands.
- Optimize coalition and cooperation with market actors and research institutes
and formalize their input in the policy creation process.
- Deliver on the planned improvements for the new policy and subsidy schemes
- Communicate a clear commitment to market actors and give a clear and
realistic outlook on the feasibility of the 2020 goal of 6000 MW.
- Create and communicate alternate scenario’s and strategies with reference to
the 2020 goals
Further improving coalition and cooperation initiatives and formalizing them into procedures
that require market actors to participate can further improve commitment to effective, efficient
clear and fair procedures. In order to start this, the planned improvements and amendments
of the current legislation should be implemented as soon as possible to allow attention to
move towards the fulfillment of the goals instead of the rules of the playing field. The
government must quickly develop a stronger picture on the long term commitment and
feasibility of 6000 MW. It is time to be able to openly question the desirability of these goals
as the recent cost increases and daunting pace of development and innovation may put
pressure on a proper preparation towards large scale development of offshore wind.
Inefficiencies at an early stage are easier to mend and a proper preparation of such large
scale projects is the key to success over the long term and give right to the daunting financial
risks for the government as well as the market actors that aim to be part of offshore wind
energy as the renewable energy for the Netherlands.
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Conclusion:
In this Chapter I have used the Technological Innovation Systems Theory to analyze the
implications and durability of the 6000MW by 2020 goal that has lead the development
efforts for offshore wind energy in the Netherlands.
A thorough analysis of the TIS for offshore wind energy policy has combined the findings of
the earlier chapters with the structured approach of the TIS methodology and have enabled
me to be able to identify the desired functions of policy that should guide the development of
offshore wind parks in the North Sea and determine how policy as effected this development
and where key issues remain that need to be resolved in order to increase the feasibility of
offshore wind energy as a large energy contributor for the Dutch energy mix.
I have been able to establish four key policy issues that should be addressed, coalition and
cooperation with market actors and research institutes although improved, should be
formalized to value these inputs in the policy creation process. The government must act on
increasing trust and commitment by delivering on the planned improvements for policy and
subsidy schemes to support the next round of large scale implementation.
There is a lack of transparency and long term commitment by the government, more effort
should be made to Communicate a clear commitment to market actors and give a clear and
realistic outlook on the feasibility of the 2020 goal of 6000 MW. This includes devising
alternate scenario’s and strategies with reference to the 2020 goals and a realistic outlook on
delays and setbacks and the willingness to discuss alternative strategies to large scale
implementation of offshore wind parks on the Dutch energy market.
Market actors need the creation of long term stable conditions and financial clarity in order to
invest in projects of this size, here lies the role that the government should wish to fulfil.
Clear and realistic political commitment and accompanying transparent long term policies are
needed to optimise the development of offshore wind energy to large scale proportions.
However, a risk based approach by a coalition of government and market actors should be
the basis of development. Toning down ambitions and high risk goals for the future prospects
of projects of this magnitude should be avoided to be able to engage in proper development
strategies.
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Chapter 5 – Conclusions
5.1 – Conclusions & Recommendations
This research set out to analyze the Dutch policy procedures that are designed to develop
offshore wind energy parks in the North Sea towards the goals of the Schoon & Zuinig
program of 6000 MW capacity in 2020.
The goals of the Schoon & Zuinig program are developed in line with the broader European
climate policy of 2020, that obligates member countries such as the Netherlands to source
20% of their energy supply from renewable sources.
We have looked at the energy demand and supply characteristics from a European
perspective and found considerable concerns regarding energy dependency and security of
supply for Europe’s main energy sources, oil and gas that, together with the global problem
of Climate Change, for a great deal explain the focus on large scale development of
renewable energy sources. An increase of renewable energy will increase security of supply,
limit the impact on climate change and will result in a more stable energy environment for
Europe. Wind Energy has the most potential for large scale development of the renewable
sources of energy. If wind energy is developed on a large scale it will lower the need for fuel
imports, and will decrease the volatility in the energy market.
The Netherlands is very well suited for large scale offshore wind energy due to the
geographic location bordering the North Sea and the large exclusive economic zone that the
Netherlands can exploit. Wind energy is general, and offshore wind energy in particular are
the best suited sources of renewable energy that can be developed on large scale and offer
the most favorable prospects for the future compared to the other renewable sources, Hydro,
Solar and Geothermal energy.
Currently, policy that must facilitate large scale offshore wind energy is being developed with
the goal to realize 6000 MW of capacity in 2020. This rate of growth is highly ambitious and
presents enormous challenges for all the actors involved in offshore wind parks. Offshore
wind is not cost-effective and developers need government support for realizing these goals.
I have looked at the policy instruments the government has erected especially for the
stimulation of offshore wind energy as well as the implementation and results of these
instruments. The current procedures will not be able to support the realization of the 6000
MW goal, as market actors experience unclear procedures and expectations, policy
inefficiency, lack of trust, uncertainty and lack of transparency in long term goals and
commitment of the government.
These problems are directly related to the lack of collaboration and effective leadership by
the government in the first round of wind parks with a 950 MW capacity.
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Large part of the current problems can be resolved if market actors and other stakeholders
are better included in the formation of policy and the problems that are faced in the
development of wind parks, and although much improvement in made in this respect, much
remains unclear.
This research has found large uncertainties with regards to the feasibility of the 6000 MW
goal. The intensity of the investments and initiatives to be able to guarantee 6000MW by
2020 is overwhelming the costs and challenges of this goal present a daunting perspective
for all the stakeholders in the industry. Faced with this uncertain conditions and the high
risks large scale development of offshore wind energy entail, policy has the important task of
optimizing cooperation and create a clear, coherent and effective government strategy to
develop offshore wind parks in this environment.
I have been able to establish four key policy issues that should be addressed in government
policy that will have to be addressed to support coherent development, coalition and
cooperation with market actors and research institutes although improved, should be
formalized to value these inputs in the policy creation process. The government must act on
increasing trust and commitment by delivering on the planned improvements for policy and
subsidy schemes to support the next round of large scale implementation.
There is a lack of transparency and long term commitment by the government, more effort
should be made to communicate a clear commitment to market actors and give a realistic
outlook on the feasibility of the 2020 goal of 6000 MW. Alternate scenario’s and strategies
with reference to the 2020 goals and a realistic outlook on delays and setbacks and the
willingness to devise alternative strategies to large scale implementation of offshore wind
parks on the Dutch energy market should be openly discussed.
The government has set clear ambitions, but the goals that are set out to be made do not
reflect a sensible and thorough approach that projects of this magnitude and uncertainty
should have. The policies that should stimulate large scale implementation are not completed
and face too much uncertainty to already facilitate sensible development of large scale parks.
Slower development will decrease the risks and give more chance for learning, innovation
and experience to develop and will result in better policy for the future of renewable energy in
the Netherlands.
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5.2 Limitations of this Research & Suggestions for further research
This thesis has focused on offshore wind energy and policy development and has focused
predominantly on the Netherlands. The findings of this research can be applied to the
specific procedures in the Netherlands only. More effort can be made to look into the
successes and failures of policy support and market cooperation in other countries that have
been successful in creating offshore wind parks. The UK and Denmark are countries that
have been extremely successful in recent years. It is very interesting to compare the
procedures and analyze what aspects work well in resolving the various challenges to large
scale offshore wind development for other countries.
The TIS theory that I have used to analyze the functional dynamics of offshore wind energy
policy is a relatively new concept, with the applied functional division developed in 2008.
Much more research needs to be done on the applicability of this analysis in policy situations
to develop a better, more specified framework that can lead to better results in creating a
link between innovation and the role of policy to stimulate this process.
An interesting approach would be to apply this functional division to successes and failures
in policy projects in the past and determine what contribution the TIS approach could have
made there.
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