Journal of Computers - Academy Publisher

1894 JOURNAL OF COMPUTERS, VOL. 6, NO. 9, SEPTEMBER 2011
variation symbol + + + + + + + - +
Pds. Qth. Sys. Sz. Wh. Xy. Yl. Yq. Zz.
coefficient 2000-2003 0.41 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.27 0.38 0.33 0.34 0.40
Sec.
industry
proportion
2004-2008 0.15 0.26 0.22 0.23 0.31 0.13 0.15 0.24 0.17
variation symbol - - - - + - - - -
2000-2004 53.4 48.8 38.8 48.9 66.8 42.6 51.4 58.7 51.8
2004-2008 61.6 52.6 42.2 60.0 66.3 45.6 69.2 59.5 63.0
variation symbol + + + + - + + + +
Remarks: Each city's financial output coefficient in the second phase is the result from Eviews5.0. Industrial structure is the
average which secondary industry added-value in various stages accounted for GDP.
b. Allocation efficiency of financial industry
For further analysis of reverse problems between
financial development and economic growth in coal
resource cities, and also take the data availability into
consideration, this paper selects Huainan2 City as the
typical case to study financial structure and economic
structure relationship, and establishes panel analysis
model based on regional industrial structure and credit
structure in 2000-2008 as a substitute for economic and
financial structure.
i. Development of industrial and credit structure
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
增加值 第一产业 增加值 第二产业 增加值 第三产业
贷款余额 第一产业 贷款余额 第二产业 贷款余额 第三产业
Figure 1: The added value of industries and the loan balance in recent
years in Huainan City
Unit: Ten thousand yuan
In recent years, Huainan City, increasing credit funds
from financial institutions increasingly focused on
coal-based secondary industry whose proportion of loans
increased from 70.7% in 2000 to 79.2% in 2008.
Industrial and customer concentration of financial
institution loans is quite high3; meanwhile, the status of
the second pillar industry is consolidated continuously,
and the proportion of the added value of the secondary
2 As a coal resource-based city built by coal mines, Huainan has a very
rich coal resources of 44.4 billion tons vision, proven reserves of 15.3
billion tons, accounting for 32% of east China.In 2008, coal and power
industries achieved added value of 20.9 billion yuan, accounting for the
city's industrial added value, GDP 84.6%, 46.13% respectively.
3 By the end of 2008, the year-end value of loans was 24.482 billions of
9 coal mining and power enterprises, including Huainan Mining (Group)
Co., Ltd and Huainan-Zhejiang coal and power Co., Ltd, accounting for
64.38 percent of the aggregate value of loans, 42.3 percentage points
higher than that in 2001.
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industry accounting for the regional GDP rose to 61.1%4
in 2008 from 46.6% in 2000. Regional industrial structure
adjustment pressure increased.
ii. Panel data estimation
The results of the Eviews5.0 output of coal cities
reached the relationship between credit structure and
industrial structure as the following (Table 3).
Table 3: The relationship between financial structure and industrial
structure in coal resource cities
2000-
2003
2004-
2008
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob. Statistics
Y--F 0.1296 0.1938 0.6688 0.5285 R 2 =0.999
E--F 1.1978 0.4170 2.8728 0.0283 F=174815
S--F 0.6296 0.0746 8.4362 0.0002 P=0.000
Fixed
Effects
Y-C=4.750 E-C=-1.209 S-C=2.265 DW=2.83
8
Y--F 0.0920 0.0314 2.9301 0.0168 R 2 =0.999
E--F 0.6823 0.1616 4.2232 0.0022 F=4753
S--F 1.1078 0.4682 2.3659 0.0422 P=0.000
Fixed
Effects
Y-C=5.06 E-C=1.947 S-C=-0.330 DW=2.39
6
Remarks: Y, E and S represent primary, secondary, tertiary
industrial added value logarithm respectively, F Y, FE, FS, each
represents primary, secondary, tertiary industrial credit balance
logarithm at end of year in same period. Y-C, E-C, and S-C are
the permanent effects of each industrial development.
The relevant data in Table 3 show that with the
financial development, the credit loan output effect in
each industry changed: firstly, the credit loan elasticity
coefficient in primary and secondary industries
respectively declined 0.038 and 0.515, in which the
decline degree of credit loan elasticity coefficient of
tertiary industry obviously exceeds the growth rate of
tertiary industry. In three industrial credit loan
configuration efficiency, secondary funds configuration
efficiency has been the highest in 2000-2003 dropped to
the second highest in 2004-2008. The decline in the fund
allocation efficiency and the increasing concentration of
credit loans to coal-based secondary industry, co-led the
4 In 2008, the added value of coal and power industries was up to 20.9
billions in Huainan, accounting for 84.6 percent of the aggregate
industrial added value and 46.13 percent of the regional GDP.