PEORIA SPORTS COMPLEX - P83

PEORIA SPORTS COMPLEX 

A MARKET STUDY 

VOLUME ONE 

Presented to: 

OSAGE WEST 

AUGUST, 2011 

Presented by: 

STRATEGIC PLANNING CONCEPTS INTERNATIONAL 

A REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT COMPANY


PEORIA, ARIZONA 

A MARKET STUDY 

Presented to: 

OSAGE WEST 

AUGUST, 2011 

Presented by: 

STRATEGIC PLANNING CONCEPTS INTERNATIONAL, LLC 

515 E. First Street, Suite A 

Tustin, California USA 92780 

Telephone: 714-505-9353 Fax: 714-505-4417 

email: astrenk@ix.netcom.com or andrew@spcintl.net 

The conclusions and recommendations contained herein represent only the opinions of Strategic Planning Concepts International and are based on the available information at the time of 

evaluation. No expressed warranty or guaranty is granted by Strategic Planning Concepts International as to the accuracy of the factual data or conclusions.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 1-1 

Sales Volume Analysis..................................................................................... 2-1 

Demographic Analysis .................................................................................... 3-1 

Retail Analysis ........................................................................................... 4-1 

Real Estate Analysis . ..................................................................................... 5-1 

Strategic Options ......................................................................................... 6-1 

Appendix & Bibliography .................................................................................. 7-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SCOPE 

PEORIA 

The goals of this study are many, but will be simply summarized here as to prepare a market study to help the 

development and design teams to best position a retail-oriented project on the land adjacent to the stadium in 

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the Peoria Sports Complex western parking lot bordering 83 Avenue, in Peoria, Arizona. 

Strategic Planning Concepts International 1-1 August, 2011

RECOMMENDATIONS 

STRATEGY FOR RETAIL: OVERALL STRATEGY: 


- There is a great opportunity here....and attendant risk as well. 

- However, overall, SPCI is of the strong opinion that unless the attendant risk is assumed, there is essentially no retail 

opportunity here at this site, because the zone around the project already has a large amount of existing retail. 

- To repeat and copy what already exists in the trade area is to gain no significant competitive advantage of any kind. 

Rather, it will invite failure. The risk of this happening is much higher (copying what already exists), than if 

something new and different is developed on the target property. 

- Does the area need more retail? Absolutely not. 

- However, that is also the wrong question to ask! 

- The better question to ask, is, “Does this area need another (and better) retail experience than what is offered now?” 

And particularly, “Does this area need a compelling retail experience?” 

- The answer to this question is “Absolutely yes.” 

- The existing retail offering in the area around the target site is: 

(1) aging 

(2) extremely boring 


(3) discount oriented 

(4) heavily convenience oriented 


(5) non-pedestrian oriented (unless the customer is very athletic) 

(6) seriously “dis-aggregated” 

(7) dominated by simplistic “power centers” and one aging regional fashion mall 

(8) very weak in the aspect of offering any kind of seriously interesting and emotionally connecting 

interactive experience for the residents of the trade area. 

- For the “grab and go” shopper, or the “one-stop” shopper, this area, around the site, is ideal...but for the resident 

looking for a more fulfilling shopping or dining experience or outing, this area does not have a lot to offer, at least not 

at this moment (2011) in time. It’s a long way to Scottsdale to find a great shopping and dining experience. Park 

West in Glendale “misses” although it was a good effort (just not good enough). 

- Arrowhead Towne Center (ATC) might have, at one time, “grabbed” the mantle of innovative and exciting shopping 

experiences for the northwest part of the Valley. 

- However, ATC remains largely a typical marble and glass emporium from the 1980s (which is when it 

was designed). While ATC has avoided the fate of Christown (the Old Spectrum Mall), Desert Sky 

Mall, Los Arcos, Metro Center, Park Central Mall and many of the other large, former powerhouse 

retail centers in the greater Phoenix area....it has also not kept pace with the three major shopping 

center leaders in the greater Phoenix area....which would be the Biltmore Fashion Park, Scottsdale 

Fashion Square and Chandler Fashion Center. ATC has been on what SPCI would define as a 



minimalist improvement program----doing just enough to remain “above” the surrounding power 

centers. 

- The dominant shopping center format in the trade area around the target site is the “power center” as exemplified by 

the property’s immediate neighbor to the north, the North Valley Power Center (NVPC), as well as the retail project 

across Bell Road from NVPC, the Arrowhead Marketplace, and the other projects to the east of NVPC, such as 

Arrowhead Crossing, Arrowhead Festival, Arrowhead Palms, Glendale Market Square...along with another several 

other similar projects also located along Bell Road...shopping centers consisting of a few “big box retailers” with a 

“necklace” of restaurants spread out on pads along the project frontage. 



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STRATEGY FOR RETAIL: MORE SPECIFIC STRATEGY POINTS 

! Do not compete with any existing retail projects in the region....develop the property as a new category...the 

path to being dominant within the trade area (more or less the northwestern quadrant of the metropolitan 

area) is shorter and easier and will be longer lasting. This is otherwise known as ‘DIFFERENTIATE OR 

DIE.” 1 

- It will be impossible to “out big” Arrowhead Town Center. 

- There are too many power centers for another one to “stand out.” The project will have 

difficulty “out powering” them. 

- There are also too many neighborhood shopping centers. 

! Also, do not attempt to “copy” any other retail project in the Valley. This project should be its own unique 

destination, and not “Kierland Commons West,” for example, or “Scottsdale Quarter West.” There is much to 

be learned from Kierland Commons (Scottsdale) in terms of layout and design and use of details as well as 

tenant mix, but the locations are very different, the trade areas are different (although the one mile ring density 

is almost identical) , the demographics are different and the surrounding competition is different. 

! Aim for a mixed-use “town center”format of shopping center....with a very strong “lifestyle” orientation....a 

multi-level, streetscape-oriented, pedestrian-oriented, multi-block project that is smaller than the typical 

See Jack Trout, Differentiate or Die. Survival in Our Era OF Killer Competition. Hoboken, New Jersey: John WILEY AND Sons, 

2008. 


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regional town center (San Tan Village, in Gilbert, for example) but larger than the typical village town center 

(Verrado in Buckeye). This means that the developer should aim to produce a project with a variety of 

synergistic uses----multi-tenant commercial offices, multifamily residential housing, restaurants, a hotel, retail 

shops and entertainment. Retail will form the podium, with other uses stacked on top to create enough 

verticality to make this project “stand out” visually from all the surrounding retail “clutter.” 

! To maximize the attraction for what is a complex trade area, demographically, and one that is not all that 

densely concentrated due to a lot of horizontal development (urban sprawl), consider organizing the town 

center into different “lifestyle” zones (in both tenant mix and design) in order to widen its appeal to different 

groups. 

- The temptation is to appeal only to the Arrowhead Ranch and surrounding communities 

population, located to the north of the project, but that population is not sufficient, by itself, to 

support the proposed format of development. 

! Incorporate the existing baseball stadium into the project, but do not expect it to function as a true anchor, 

because the stadium will not be hosting events on a daily basis and, for much of the time, will be “dark.” Treat 

the stadium as a supplement, not as a core element, because a mixed-use project that operates as close to the 

“24/7" schedule as possible will be the most successful. The project may in fact not be able to completely 

operate 24 hours a day, although the residential component and a hotel (or two) will provide some of that added 

“activity” power. The longer the operational day for the project, the more it is going to gain a strategic 

competitive advantage over other existing (and future) retail options in this sector of the market. 

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See David Stein, “Entertaining Entertainment Districts,” Urban Land, Vol. 66 , No. 1 (January 2007), pp. 106-109.l 



! Incorporate new executive offices for the MLB teams into the project...there will be a good amount of second 

level space available above the retail on the ground level, enough to offer both clubs a much expended area for 

their operations. 

! Consider a multi-phase expansion as “Plan B”. This will allow for the project to launch if the pre-leasing of 

retail space proceeds more slowly than expected (there is still a recession in place in the opinion of SPCI). 

Town centers are very modular and can be expanded, block by block (Kierland Commons was a good example). 

! A department store is not needed. A town center is able to function quite well without this traditional anchor. 

Not many existing department store chains (of the few that remain) truly function as anchors today in most 

retail projects....power has shifted in many cases to specialty stores. 

- Instead, create the “aggregate” anchor—enough stores in a category that together can function 

like an anchor. 

- The only possible option would be Nordstrom, which SPCI considers to be a very “long shot.” 

! Get strong in the specialty stores, very strong: 

- Currently, ATC is somewhat weaker in its specialty store lineup than it should be. This is not huge 

strength for ATC at this time—not in the mix of specialty stores, not in their placement within the 

project, not in their visual merchandising, and not in their sizing. Adding specialty stores not in 

this sector of the market will make the project vastly more competitive and a much more 

interesting and entertaining place to shop. The customer needs to notice the difference. The 

focus needs to be on what are known as “lifestyle retailers,” (generally fast fashion and casual 

retailers) not high end luxury brands. 


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! Get strong in the restaurant category, as much as possible: 

- This will be difficult given the number of restaurants that are already in the immediate area (well 

over 100+), but it needs to be set as an objective. 

- Many new retail projects today will offer 20-30 and even 40 restaurants (not counting a food 

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court). That is not a number that is going to be obtainable here at this site, but there will need to 

be a good critical mass of restaurants, at least ten, to establish a solid reputation as a serious dining 

destination. 

- The good news for planning is that despite the huge number of restaurants located around the 

project, the diversity actually is rather limited in the opinion of SPCI. 

- Luckily, the existing restaurant mix at ATC is much weaker than it should be. 4 

! Rethink the food court option. 

- The trends are towards food terraces, food gardens, dining decks, dining terraces, food pavilions 

and other options that provide more of a dining experience and ambiance than just fast food. 

Park West launched with six restaurants....not enough to make a serious impact on the market. Interesting, perhaps, but not 

compelling as a destination. 

South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa, California, has 49 different dining or food options and no food court. 



- There is already a lot of fast food around the project. SPCI would recommend an avoidance of fast 

food and a focus on fast casual and better quality table service dining options. 

- The food court industry is evolving. 

- Traditional food courts, to use a current English expression, are “so yesterday”—cold, sterile, 

unfriendly places with rows and rows of plastic tables and chairs, often bolted to the floor (for 

easier cleaning) with a limited array of vendors serving generally poor quality food. 

- Arrowhead Towne Center has a good example of this “old-style” food court. The focus is shifting 

to serving better quality food in a better quality environment. This project needs to be “leading 

edge.” 

! Create more of an experience for the customer, not just a shopping center: 

- Overall, this project needs to move towards being more of a “shopping experience” than “just” 

another shopping center. It’s all about the experience for the customer. Think of shopping as 

“theater.” 

- This means that a visit to the project should deliver a pleasant and memorable experience to the 

consumer, not just offer a variety of typical stores selling typical goods and typical services in a 

typical, clean, safe and secure environment. This project needs to be something “extra”...or don’t 

do it. 

- Creating this more powerful and emotional experience for the consumer will involve bringing in 

more lifestyle-oriented retailers, and working on adding more details (see design section) in terms 



of landscaping, illumination, signage, hardscape, finishes, fixtures, street furniture, and related 

“staging” elements. 

- This project needs to be considered as a “stage” in a theater. Shopping activities are the “show.” 

This focus on theater must extend to every aspect of the project....including the bathrooms and the 

parking areas....it’s all part of the experience when a customer comes to the 

project....”shoppertainment.” Connect with the customer, emotionally. 

! Parking is part of the show, it is part of the experience. 

- Shopping does not begin when a customer enters a store or sits down in a restaurant. The parking 

experience at this project has to be different than what a customer otherwise encounters in this 

trade area. 

- Parking is part of the shopping experience. Its part of “the show.” 

- Better and more visible signage, great way finding (don’t make the customer hunt for entrances 

and exits), more use of colors, exciting graphics, more attention to the entrances and exits in terms 

of visual merchandising, use of the facades to promote the project, attractive transition areas 

(elevator lobbies)....all can help make this project a better shopping experience. 

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! Establish a physical and visual connection, if at all possible, across 83 Avenue to the existing “restaurant row” 

of Arrowhead Fountains Center and the multiplex cinemas. 

- Play off the existing strength of AFC, this project is already known as a destination in the trade 

area. 



STRATEGY FOR RESIDENTIAL 


! OVERALL STRATEGY: This is a very tricky component in all mixed-use town centers, and not always well 

done...generally because retail developers lack experience in residential development (and visa versa). 

- It is difficult to place residential directly over retail and/or restaurants. When this is done, it 

generally works best with a half mezzanine in between and commercial office space on top of the 

retail....with residential on top of the commercial office. This creates spacing issues because of the 

placement of the columns. The traditional office floor plate with the mechanical systems, 

plumbing and elevators in the center also tend not to work well, plus the vertical transportation 

scheme gets complicated because of the need for additional and separate elevators for the 

residents. So residential may play a limited role here. 

- There are serious planning issues in terms of dealing with deliveries in terms of access, parking and 

noise. 

- In general, residents will be needing their own parking areas, lobby entrances and 

elevators....sharing of these is not an option. The parking ingress, egress and circulation situation 

must be clearly determined in the planning phase....residents in general do not like to share any of 

these experiences with retail visitors or office space users or hotel users, but offering separate 

entries and exits for residents is a cost factor. 



- The dry trash removal and storage, and wet trash removal and storage (for restaurants) issues are 

difficult issues to resolve satisfactorily to the satisfaction of all users, in a mixed use project. Issues 

of convenience tend to conflict with issues of cost. 

- Venting of smoke and odors from restaurants is another issue for residents living above the retail 

podium/level in a mixed use project. This is a place for design creativity, suffice to say, it is not 

always done well but it is not an area in which to cut costs. 

- Noise abatement is also an issue. This can be done by enhanced soundproofing and adding a 

thicker level, even a half mezzanine between the ground level and the first level above, but there is 

a cost factor involved. Again, this is not an area to cut costs. 

! Residential users in such projects fall into four relatively distinct groups—single, unmarried, young 

professionals who find the proximity to bars and restaurants to be exciting; double income, no kids 

household units (can be married or unmarried couples); gays, lesbians and others with alternative 

lifestyles (GLBT) and empty nesters----older singles or couples whose children are grown up and out of 

the household and who have decided to “downsize.” 

- The parking requirements of these four groups can vary widely in terms of project impact, suffice 

to say that the old standard of one vehicle per unit does not work well in the modern environment 

unless the project is built on top of a public transportation hub (not the case here). Many young 

singles will have a sport or recreational vehicle in addition to their main transportation and the 

vast majority of couples are two-vehicle living units. 

- The empty nesters tend to require more accommodations for their age in terms of size and 

placement of electrical switches, amount of lighting, installation of safety grips in bathrooms and 

related amenities. 



- There is not a lot of this product (residential housing within a mixed-use project, on top of retail) 

in Glendale and Peoria although there is plenty of multi-family housing. As such, predicting the 

amount of demand is difficult; SPCI suggests that the project consider offering a fairly wide range 

of floor plans and layouts rather than “betting” everything (residentially) on the acceptance of one 

or two layouts. 

- In terms of overall project operations, management will have fewer issues if all residential housing 

is rental, as there will be no permanent stakeholders. However, many mixed-use projects offer 

condos or town homes as part or, or all of, the residential experience. 

- This is not meant to substitute for a detailed residential study, but SPCI would suggest considering 

a range of residential units ranging from 1,000 sq. ft. up to approximately 2,500 sq. ft., which would 

allow for the inclusion of a fair number of lifestyle amenities in the units....which would range from 

one bedroom, two bathroom units to one bedroom with a den and two bathroom units, to the 

standard two bedroom and two bathroom units. Given the variety of target lifestyles, two 

bedroom and two bathroom units with a den and two bedrooms with two and a half bathroom 

units ought to be considered as well as three bedroom and three bath units (providing flexibility 

for use of the extra space as a den, home office and/or library). The sizes of these can vary; some 

number of lot units might be considered....the point here is that there is no lack of residential 

housing in the greater Phoenix area or in this quadrant of the market. People who want to live 

here at this project are likely to do so because they are attracted to the lifestyle of the project as a 

whole and want to live near to stores and restaurants and to be able to have a pedestrian 

experience. In the greater Phoenix area, this is an unconventional choice. 



STRATEGY FOR COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE 


! This is not a major commercial office district. That places some limitations on what can be attempted here on 

this site. 

! Town centers need second and third level occupied space in order to create the vertical height that gives the 

streetscape some serious life and differentiates these projects from their more horizontal retail cousins. 

- However, again, as with residential uses, the needs of office space users do not line up well with those of 

merchants. Even Kierland Commons, for all of its retail success, has not met with the same level of 

success in its office leasing program. 

- The large floor plates demanded by serious corporate office users tend to work against the kind of lively 

street scenes and animated environment that makes a town center successful as a retail “place.” So that 

forces a reliance on the small, multi-tenant user who finds it attractive to be close to lots of business and 

restaurant amenities. That is a small segment of the overall office market population, although there are 

more of such tenants than there are large users. 

- There will need to be more than adequate venting shafts to accommodate ground level restaurants and 

accommodations for grease traps and wet trash storage that do not interfere with the operations of 

commercial office tenants. 

! The biggest single group of potential tenants are the FIRE tenants (financial, insurance and real estate). They 

will have to be targeted...a tough assignment in the current economic conditions as these industries have been 

heavily impacted by the economic downturn. 



! Office space for the two MLB teams will essentially be build to suit space. This will require some clever design 

work by the design team to accommodate the teams, and their needs, while still keeping to the needs of a town 

center for connectivity, interaction and visual appeal. 

! Depending on the final landscaping package and just how much of the town center lifestyle is included in the 

project, it may be possible to position the commercial offices as “garden offices.” To do so will require smaller 

bay depths so that every office in a typical suit has some kind of outside “view.” 

! The market here is in the 500-2,500 sq. ft. office suite range. It is a lot of effort to lease these spaces and it takes 

a lot of time, although once occupied, the turnover tends to be less and the problem of one large tenant 

emptying an entire building goes away. 

! Of the various uses for second and third level space above the retail, commercial office tends to be an easier “fit” 

than residential. 

! Some projects insert an extra half level of mezzanine type space between the ground level retail and the bottom 

level of commercial office space in order to provide a sound buffer and an option for routing smoke and odor 

from restaurants out laterally rather than up through the building. 

! Medical and dental office space is also an option, given the proximity of Sun City, but to target serious users, the 

office space will need to be more tailored to the medical and dental community than conventional commercial 

office place----stronger floor plates, more electrical outlets----to handle the equipment needs. 



STRATEGY FOR HOSPITALITY 


! The town center will work a lot better if it has a hotel (even better with two hotels). Since guests come 

and go at all hours of the day and night, the hotel helps to animate the town center and push it towards a 

24/7 operating cycle. 

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! While a hotel is proposed for the western end of the property to anchor the project on 83 Avenue and 

provide identity and visibility for the rest of the project, a second hotel could take second and third level 

space above at least some of the retail. This anchor situation is crucial, since the project is not likely to 

have a conventional large retail anchor on the western end of the property. The hotel will need to 

shoulder this responsibility. 

! This is not a hotel study, however, it is important that the hotel chain that is selected be one that has 

experience in operating in a mixed-use environment as well as an interest to do so. If the hotel functions 

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as a completely stand-alone property, then it might as well be on the other side of North 83 Avenue with 

some of the other hotels. 

! In terms of building the brand of the project, it would be to have a higher quality hotel than what 

currently exists in the immediate vicinity (economy and budget hotels). 

! There is no standard, universally accepting rating system, but SPCI recommends a four star hotel for the 

property. This generally is a formal, large (150 rooms plus) hotel, with high-quality service. 

- These hotels tend to “cluster” together, which is going to be somewhat of an issue here at 

this site, since a four-star hotel here will need to be a pioneer. The MLB teams have a role 


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to play here in helping convince a chain to open at this location or to assume the 

management responsibility of a hotel here. 

- These hotels do like to be close to shopping, dining and entertainment options, which is the 

case here at this site. 

- These hotels offer above-average service (existing hotels in the area are generally very low 

service or no service facilities), beautifully furnished hotel rooms and common areas, 

restaurants, room service, valet parking, an above average fitness center (often with a spa of 

some sort) and a full-time concierge. What is important is that some of these amenities 

often are available to the entire project and not just hotel guests. 

- Hotels of this rating can be 500 rooms and more, but SPCI suggests that this would be too 

many, that 250 is a better cap on the number of room keys, but it would be best to confirm 

this with a dedicated hotel study if this has not been already completed. 

! If a hotel is not willing to commit, this is not the end of the story. A town center can still function and 

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operate without a hotel.....it does tends to perform better if it has one. The master plan should make an 

accommodation for a hotel and the pad should be retained until if and when a hotel chain occupies the 

designated hotel site. 

The Valencia at Santana Row in San Jose would be an example. Reston Town Center has a Hyatt. Southlake Town Square near 

Dallas originally had a Hilton Garden Hotel but this has evolved into a more specialized, higher end luxury Hilton boutique hotel with 

248 rooms and 40 suites. White carrying the Hilton nameplate, the hotel is a lot more stylish than the typical Hilton and has a more 

intimate, comfortable ambiance. The hotel has its own spa and fitness center. 



ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY FOR RETAIL 

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! The trade area for the project will need to be large, in order to support the project. The immediate local 

population is not large enough or dense enough to provide the needed level of support. In addition to 

Arrowhead Ranch and surroundings, northern Peoria, northern Glendale, Sun City, Sun City West and 

Surprise, this project will need to stretch its catchment zone out to Norterra in the northeast, up to 

Anthem, and northwest as far as Wickenburg. 

! SPCI estimates that a regional town center format of shopping center at the proposed Peoria Sports 

Complex site, in 2011 would perform, under the many assumptions made in the following charts, at 

approximately 137 million dollars in annual sales. This includes both shopper goods (GAFO) and 

convenience goods. 6 

! In 2011, this result supports a regional town center of approximately 275,000 sf of shopper and 

convenience goods (service retail such as banks and financial institutions excluded), if the criteria for 

operation is an efficiency ratio of 500 dollars of sales per sf per year (which SPCI would consider to be a 

medium-range efficiency target for this type of project). The very best projects in the USA perform at 

approximately 1,500 dollars per sf, but it would be unrealistic to expect this project to start out at such a 

level....it takes years, generally, to mature into such a position. This does not include service retail. 7 

None of these estimates include non-GAFO and non-convenience uses, such as financial services, a bowling center or a sports fitness 

club. 

As a reference point, Kierland Commons originally was 305,000 sf in its initial configuration, with 47 stores and restaurants. Currently, 

it is 434,690 sf. with 75 stores and restaurants. The Shops at Norterra have 350,000 sf. of retail space....but the overall ambiance and 


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- The project could be less, but for strategic reasons (having enough critical mass to actually 

be noticed), SPCI would not dip below 150,000 sq. ft. as the minimum. 

! At a sales efficiency of 680 dollars of sales per sf per year (a higher target for planning purposes and one 

that SPCI much prefers), then the trade area can support a regional town center of approximately 

200,000 sf of shopper and convenience goods (service retail excluded) in 2011. This is actually either a 

large village town center, or a smaller regional town center, depending on how it is laid out in terms of 

design—there is no hard and fast delineation between these formats. 

! The demand for shopper goods as of 2011 is estimated at currently 47 million dollars (see Chart II). This 

allows for approximately 70,000 sf of shopper good retail space at a higher efficiency of 680 dollars/sf and 

120,000 sf at a lower efficiency of 380 dollars/sf ratio. It should be stressed that this is only approximately, 

since one or two retailers often can exercise a major impact on the acquisition of additional co-tenants, and a 

particular constellation of specialty stores can exert a much stronger pull on the trade area in terms of capture 

percentages. So this should be regarded as more of a “floor” in terms of sizing. For example, acquisition of a 

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Crate and Barrel in this project would not only eat up a lot of the shopper good space, but it would also have 

a major impact on the decisions of other retailers and together, this would alter the dynamics of this situation, 

pushing up the amount of sustainable retail. 

the resulting experience to be had at Norterra is entirely different from Kierland Commons (less intimate, less interesting, less 

satisfying)...not only in its current configuration, but in its earlier and smaller configuration as well. The original Borgata, in 

Scottsdale, was 87,500 sf....small enough to be intimate, but the layout of the design precluded sufficient circulation....small size does 

not guarantee success either. The Shops at Gainey Village, in Scottsdale, are approximately 138,000 sf. Highland Park Village, in 

Dallas, Texas, is approximately 200,000 sf.. Scottsdale Quarter has 370,000 sf. Of retail, and if entertainment options are included, then 

the total is 405,00 sf. The Grove, in Los Angeles, is 575,000 sf....but Nordstrom has 122,000 sf. of the total. 

Large stores can push on 40,000 sf, although the smallest units can be only 6,000 sf. The typical size is probably approximately 10,000 

sf. At Kierland Commons, Crate and Barrel has 37,066 sf. 



! The demand for convenience goods as of 2011 is approximately 90.2 million dollars, which can, in theory, 

support between 130,000 sf and 240,000 sf of convenience retail space in 2011 (See Chart III), depending 

on the desired efficiency performance. On the surface, this is more than enough space to support whatever 

constellation of restaurants and specialty supermarkets might be recruited for this project, but again, the 

selection of specific tenants is crucial here...the selection of restaurants that mirror what is already available in 

the immediate commercial zone will result in a situation of lowered demand and less capture. This project 

must deliver an experience that is significantly different from any surrounding shopping center. Otherwise, 

there is no need to develop it. 

! In terms of sizing, if the sales standard is 680 dollars per sf per year, then: 

o Under the assumption of modest economic growth of between 1-3% (a more gradual scenario, 

which seems more realistic in the current economic situation), the proposed site could sustain a 

regional town center of approximately 240,000 sf by the year 2016, at the same sales standard of 

680 dollars/sf. With 5,000 sf of services included, this would be a retail project of approximately 

245,000 sf. 

From a competitive situation, this is actually not a bad size, as the project would have enough “critical 

mass” to be taken seriously by the consumers, and to be noticed by visitors to the area, yet the amount 

of retail space would not be insurmountable in terms of the ability to actually lease it, in the opinion of 

SPCI. Likewise, this size of project makes it easy to preserve the kind of intimate details and sense of 

environment that can provide a compelling emotional experience for visitors and provide a competitive 

advantage. 

In terms of absorption, SPCI suggests that a window of six to eighteen months be considered. There 

are a huge number of variables that can affect this and the amount of supply of unleased space in the 

trade area is not very relevant when trying to estimate absorption going forward. The only lesson that, 


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at least to SPCI, appears obvious, is that a shopping center that has an unfocused leasing strategy and 

that is following a simple “fill up the space” plan, when combined with an inefficient and poorly 

thought out design...is going to struggle and will have a lot of vacant space. 

Historical absorption trends for the trade area are interesting, but given the differences in project 

formats and layouts, it is difficult for SPCI to see how there is much data that is relevant for the PSC 

project. The whole premise for the PSC project is that in order to succeed, the project must be 

significantly different from anything in the trade area in order to gain a competitive advantage. If it is 

not different, then it has no advantage, and then it can expect the same results as are obvious at many 

of the surrounding shopping centers—a good amount of vacant smaller store space. 

When one examines the inventory of vacant space in the trade area, there are some large spaces 

available, in particular the Costco space on Bell Road. For SPCI, the fact that this space has remained 

vacant for so long is more a reflection on the existence of unimaginative redevelopment and leasing 

strategies than on market demand----there has been plenty of activity along the Bell Road corridor 

during this time frame....just not another similarly-sized “big box” who has come along and taken over 

the space. Much of the existing smaller store retail space that is available in the trade area (in 

Arrowhead Crossing, North Valley Power Center, Arrowhead Festival, for example) is not well-located 

within those centers, and often not well-positioned with respect to either the center anchors or possible 

co-tenants. For SPCI, the project known as The Shops at Bell Mar (Surprise) does not appear to have 

been well thought out, well designed or well positioned, so the amount of vacant space there is not 

surprising. The Shops at Norterra suffer from a similar situation—a strange project (for SPCI) that is 

9 

attempting to merge a town center atmosphere with a main street together with big box retail. To 

There are projects with big box tenants that operate as shadow anchors, but generally these are on the periphery of the project and are 

not part of the main street environment. See Santana Row in San Jose (Best Buy, The Container Store). 



compare any of this vacant retail space at these neighboring projects with what is planned for the PSC 

property is to compare very different situations and items. 

o Under the assumption of good economic growth of between 1%-6% (more accelerated economic 

growth, assuming recovery in the near term), the proposed site could sustain a regional town 

center of approximately 245,000 sf by the year 2016, at the same sales standard of 680 dollars/sf. 

Another 5,000 sf of services would allow for a total retail project of 250,000 m². 

This is also a healthy amount of retail space, SPCI considers this to be sufficient critical mass to make 

the market take notice of the project, but not so much that the ambiance and special environment 

become lost in a large project. 

2. At a more modest sales efficiency of 500 dollars per sf per year, then: 

o Under the assumption of modest economic growth of between 1-3% (more gradual), the proposed 

shopping center site could sustain a regional town center of approximately 310,000 sf by the year 

2016. With 5,000 sf of services, this would be a retail project of 315,000 sf. 

This is a decision for the developer in terms of both the size that he wants and the rents that he expects. 

Size wise, this is more than enough to exert influence over the trade area. At larger sizes, the ambiance 

of the project will start to seriously diminish, although the kind of layout and design of the project can 

impact this situation. 

o If good economic growth of between 1%-6% (more accelerated) is assumed, the proposed site 

could sustain a regional town center of approximately 335,000 sf of retail space by the year 2016 

(see Chart IV). Retail services would add another 5,000 sf, making this a project of 340,000 sf. 



This is nice, but at this size, the project will start to push against the boundaries of what constitutes a 

reasonably intimate, friendly and emotionally inviting environment for the consumer. To succeed, this 

project does not necessarily need to be “large.” It needs to be good. That means it must be very 

focused on the value that it is attempting to deliver to the consumer, must understand that consumer 

and must emotionally connect to that consumer. In a market with a lot of product, a new project can 

not attempt to sell everything to everyone. Everyone is not the customer. 

3. At a sales efficiency of 380 dollars per sf per year, then the following conclusions are possible. This is 

somewhat less than SPCI would like to target as a sales efficiency, but still, in the opinion of SPCI, within 

the bounds of allowable performance. 


Peoria site would be able to sustain a regional town center of approximately 410,000 sf of retail by 

2016 (See Chart IV). Another 5,000 sf with the service retail would make for a total retail project 

of 415,000 sf. 

This is moving in on being a large project, and SPCI would recommend against this scenario. 


could sustain a regional town center of approximately 440,000 sf by the year 2016. Adding another 

5,000 sf for retail services makes for a total retail project of 445,000 sf. 

This is larger than needed to create an impact, and there is no need to make the leasing process longer. 

Also, it will be difficult to preserve an intimate ambiance as the project gets to be this large. Since the 

ambiance is going to be a major point of differentiation and a major competitive advantage, the 

developer must be careful about “giving away” the core value of the project that makes it better. A 

smaller leasing footprint, by restricting the supply of space, should also be able to push up demand, and 

ultimately, push up rental rates as demand exceeds supply within the project. 


10 


In conclusion, SPCI is of the opinion that the best size for the proposed regional town center is 

somewhere in the range of 240,000 sf - 350,000 sf, with a very maximum size of 370,000 sf 

(including the service retail, which is approximately 5,000 sf). A regional town center at the 

larger end of the spectrum would include a specialty department store + a healthy number of 

10 

specialty stores. It would also allow for multiple restaurants and fast(er) food operators , in 

addition to the service-oriented retail. 

See comment on food options. SPCI prefers fast casual and fine dining options, but is not opposed to counter service operations, 

depending on how they are handled. SPCI much prefers the food garden/food terrace approach of The Grove (Los Angeles) and 

Americana at Brand (Glendale, California) to the conventional, and very sterile, food court. 



LOCATION FOR RETAIL 


! Visibility is overall relatively good, although the property is not at a prime retail location, which would be 

rd 

the corner of a major intersection (83 Avenue and Bell Road). 

! Frontage: the project has frontage on three streets, one of which is a major road (83rd Avenue)....this is 

close to optimal, although again, not the maximum. 

! Access: the project has multiple access points from the north and south. This is very good. Access in the 

immediate vicinity does not really exist from the west and from the east. Paradise provides some access 

from the east but it is not a major street. Bell Road, located nearby to the north, can provide good access 

from the east and from the west. The proximity of the I-101 to the west is a plus for the project, although 

the current on and off ramp situation is under stress. The construction of a new off ramp for north 

bound motorists on the I-101, south of the project site, should be of major benefit to the site and the 

rd 

project. Currently, 83 Avenue is not overloaded and has ample unused carrying capacity (six lanes, 

three in each direction in front of the project, the number of lanes increases to nine at the Bell Road 

rd 

intersection). To the south of the project, 83 Avenue is generally four lanes, but additional lanes have 

been added for left turn options and as right turn take up lanes at various spots to facilitate the flow of 

vehicular traffic. 

! Demographics: Relatively complex, and very different, depending on which quadrant around the project 

is under consideration for its customer potential. While it is easier and simpler to work with a single 

homogenous population, there is not enough of a population base to support this strategy, consequently, 

a more multi-faceted strategy will be needed. The project will need to establish itself as a destination in 

order to pull in enough customers. Depending on what the tenant mix is, a project here can pull from a 



trade area that offers anywhere from 250,000 to 500,000 customers. On the most basic level, there are 

approximately 250,000 residents living within close comfort of the site with easy and convenient access. 

With a better experience and tenant mix, the project ought to be able to double its catchment area and in 

fact might be able to draw more, depending on what happens in other areas of the west valley. 

! Size: The site is somewhat cramped, at 18 acres, and less than SPCI would prefer, but nothing that an 

experienced design team and developer cannot overcome. The size certainly is sufficient to achieve retail 

success in a mixed-use, town center, format. Size is not the most important factor for the success of a 

town center. 

! Slope: This is not an issue here. 

! Hydrology: Developer reports that this is not an issue. 

! Geo-technical issues: Developer has not reported any to SPCI. 



LOCATION FOR RESIDENTIAL 


! Size: More than sufficient, both for single use multi-family residential (there is some across Paradise, east 

of the La Quinta Inn and Suites). 

! Slope: Not a serious issue. 

! Visibility: Not an issue for a residential. 

! Frontage: Sufficient for residential. 

! View corridors: good to the south and west and north; stadium blocks views to the east, depending on the 

height of the buildings. 

! Access: Site can be approached from three directions----north and south, and to a lesser degree from the 

east. 



LOCATION FOR COMMERCIAL OFFICE 


! There is not a lot of commercial office space in the general vicinity, but what little there is either next to 

rd 

the stadium or across 83 Avenue and south of Bell Road (actually south of Paradise). 

! The target market is likely to be largely the multi-tenant office building user----FIRE (financial, 

insurance, real estate) type tenants looking for garden office type space....the exception being the two 

baseball teams, which will be needing build to suit space with larger floor plates. 



LOCATION FOR HOTEL 


! While there are several budget and economy class hotels in the immediate vicinity, there is no better 

quality business hotel in the vicinity, no four star (or higher) hotel, no hotel with some conference and 

meeting room space. 

! This is one area where the needs of the MLB entities and the needs of a town center mesh very well. 

! There is good frontage. 

! A hotel with some verticality will have I-101 visibility. 

! Access is reasonably good and the construction of a new I-101 off ramp to the south will improve regional 

access. 



RETAIL TENANT MIX 


! The tenant mix is going to be very important here. For SPCI, this is the number one reason why retail projects 

fail, assuming that the site is a good one. 

- This can not be a traditional “fill the space” leasing strategy. It is recommended that an experienced 

broker be retained, one with the appropriate leasing philosophy for this project. This person may have to 

come from outside the area. 

- SPCI suggests that retail tenants must meet several criteria: financial health, ability to contribute synergy 

to the rest of the project (high co-tenant rating), great visual merchandising skills and the ability to be a 

“people pump” (pull people to the project). Financial ability in and of itself is not sufficient to lease 

space at PSC, if this project is to succeed. 

- At all costs, the project must avoid the Claire’s, Foot Locker, Game Stop, GNC, Hallmark, Kay Jewelers, 

Lane Bryant, Lenscrafters, Merle Norman, PacSun, Payless Shoe Source, Radio Shack, Stride Rite, 

Sunglass Hut and Zales kind of tenant mix orientation that exists at ATC (typical of many mediocre 

regional fashion malls). These are all solid retailers, they just will not lend any specialness to the PSC 

project. 

- Leasing is likely to be an evolutionary process, as there is no perfect template to copy for a leasing 

strategy. 



- It is suggested that the tenant mix not orient to Sun City, as that demographic is not a big spending 

demographic. The replacements coming up (the baby boomers) are going to be acting differently in terms 

of living, shopping and dining and above all, do not want to be considered as being “old.” 

! Restaurants: This is going to have to be a power category, upwards of 30,000 sf. Together, the restaurants must 

build an aggregate anchor. A great variety of dining options will be needed. SPCI would like to see at least 

twelve restaurants (potentially more) here in order to have enough critical mass and power to make a serious 

impact on the market. This is a chance for creativity and stardom for this project. There will need to be a 

mixture of independents and national chains, leaning towards the independents, which give a project more 

unique character. If all of the restaurants are national chains, the project is not going to have a big impact, 

because the national chains, while credit worthy, can not deliver a unique identity to the project. This project 

can not afford to look and feel like all the other projects in the vicinity (especially Arrowhead Fountains 

Center), if it is going to succeed. This will require hard work by the broker team, who are going to have to turn 

down the “easy” deals and pursue tenants who can really help this project and not just fill space. Some choices 

are as follows: 

— Steak House: This does not have to be a US steakhouse, it could be an Argentinian 

steakhouse, for example. A Brazilian Rodizio-style restaurant is another possibility for 

meats (for example, Agora Churrascaria in Irvine, California)...there is already a fair 

amount of competition in the steak category, but nothing especially overpowering in the 

opinion of SPCI. PSC needs to reach out beyond the Black Angus type of steak house. 

There are enough Texan steak houses in the area. The selection of the chef could be crucial 

if the restaurant is going to stand out. Fleming’s is seven miles to the south at Park West. 

— Seafood: There should be a good seafood restaurant in the project. The selection of chef 

could also be crucial here if the restaurant is to stand out. Something like maybe the 

Bluewater Grill...which has a unit in the Phoenix area, but it is a free-standing location 


11 


some distance away. The Kona Grill is interesting, but perhaps already too represented in 

the greater Phoenix area. There are plenty of options, and a good number of regional 

11 

chains (Chart House, Rusty Pelican, Ancient Mariner in California, King’s Fish House ) 

blending traditional menus with more exotic entries. There can be crossover into Asian 

and Mexican food categories. 

— Mexican: The “sky is the limit” as to what restaurant could fill this niche, but there should 

be one Mexican food restaurant here, preferably not a Tex-Mex one. Most of the 

restaurants in this category, in the vicinity of the PSC, are Tex-Mex. There are a lot of new 

concepts, as Mexican food has many different categories. Tex-Mex represents one very 

narrow sub-category. There has been a huge growth in what is known as Nuevo Latino 

food, but that influence has yet to impact the area around the PSC, which seems stuck with 

older formats. Javier’s at The Spectrum (Irvine) or Frida’s (Americana at Brand) would be 

examples. 

— Italian. A good, local Italian food operator can work well. SPCI would prefer a more 

formal, sit-down Italian restaurant, which makes pastas and pizzas, not a fast food pizza 

operator. CPK could be an option, but again the idea would be to be as different as 

possible and as radically removed from The Olive Garden as possible. The best option 

might be to see if Tagliani’s lease is up for renewal any time soon, as they have a loyal 

following and would add some interest to the PSC project. 

— Chinese: Absolutely avoid a Chinese buffet restaurant. Chinese restaurants are popular all 

over the world. A nice, quality Chinese restaurant could be a great part of the “food mix.” 

There are a number of concepts in this group in addition to King’s Fish House. The group was previously known as University 

Restaurant Group. 



PF Chang’s China Bistro is across the street but that does not exhaust the range of options, 

either in menu choices or interior decor. There are many different kinds of Chinese food 

and as with some other international categories, there has been a lot of growth in crosscultural 

entries in recent years. 

— Japanese: Japanese food is another option for the proposed “restaurant mix” here. Most 

of these restaurants are owner-operator restaurants, not international or national brands. 

A better quality Japanese restaurant could be interesting here, it will need to be more than 

just another sushi place, of which there are already a lot in the vicinity. Benihana offers an 

interesting mix of food and entertainment, but there are already two in the metropolitana 

area (both in the East Valley). 

— French: Long considered by many to be the best cuisine in the world, there could be a 

French restaurant at this project, depending on its menu and price points and co-tenants. 

This type of restaurant could be expected to add some uniqueness to the project and is 

likely to have more appeal demographically for residents living to the north seeking a 

special place for memorable evenings such as birthdays and anniversaries. This could be 

one of the more upscale restaurants found here (along with the seafood restaurant and the 

steakhouse). 

— German: Yet another option for a restaurant in this project, a German restaurant could 

offer somewhat faster food in a more casual environment, and might be a good fit with the 

baseball venue and the demographics of the region to the west and south, assuming that it 

carried the extensive range of beers that good German restaurants are known for. Not 

every restaurant needs to be a fine dining, table cloth restaurant. 



— Sports bar: This is a project next to a sports venue, so it will need a sports bar with a good 

stand up component. This also means good beer and good television wide screens with 

great audio feeds. A lot of the national entrants in this category are “old and tired” 

concepts. Project developers have expressed an interest for Dave and Buster’s. This may 

not necessarily be the best choice....SPCI’s impressions are heavily impacted by the 

performance of D&B units at The Spectrum in Irvine and The Block in Orange. The Yard 

House is a good operator (and popular with younger generations) except tht they are to the 

south at Westgate. SPCI’s opinion is that PSC can “do better” than D&B. Among the 

local operators in Phoenix who know the Phoenix customer, there may be one (Majerle’s) 

willing to open a similar concept at PSC. 

— Coffee café: This is the European definition of café, essentially a coffeehouse. Starbuck’s is 

all over the area, so it may not be the best choice although they are the category killer. The 

project will need a tenant in this category. Starbuck’s uses the same coffee beans as its 

competitors, it is just a more competent logistics company, in the opinion of SPCI. An 

operation like Next, up at Citadella Plaza, could be an option. Or perhaps Seattle’s Best 

Coffee, now owned by Starbuck’s. 

— Others: Spanish restaurants, Thai restaurants, Greek restaurants, Arabic, Middle Eastern, 

Lebanese restaurants, Indian restaurants (most of these in the area are faster food places 

located in power centers). There is room for creativity here.....this project needs “not” to 

be like the surrounding retail centers. These restaurants can become real landmarks.....as 

was, for example, the Papadakis Taverna in San Pedro (California) for decades. The tapas 

bars category within the Spanish group (for example, Flavors of Spain, Newport Beach) can 

add zest to a project and generally carry a good entertainment value. 



— Café/Bistro/Bakery: This is the North American definition of café, more of an informal 

restaurant. The Corner Bakery Café is across the street, but there is room for another 

entry here in the opinion of SPCI. The concept is one of an informal eatery serving 

moderately priced food and drinks. The Paradise Café is a great concept but was poorly 

located within ATC and might be an option. There are other possibilities. The project 

most certainly needs a good breakfast meeting place and a bakery. 

— Delicatessen: Depending on the other co-tenants, this format could be a good addition to 

the food options. 

— Also exclude: BBQs, buffets, chuckwagons, conveyor belt sushi establishments, diners, drive 

thrus and pizza delivery restaurants. These cannot deliver uniqueness to the PSC project. 

! Home accessory specialty retailers with a strong lifestyle orientation who are not in the western end of 

the valley, who are good visual merchandisers and have a strong lifestyle reputation....ought to be 

considered: Crate and Barrel would be an example but there are others in this category (Restoration 

Hardware, Pottery Barn, Sur La Table, Williams Sonoma). 

! Stores that can combine entertainment and lifestyle elements with serious retailing....Apple, for example. 

They are already in ATC, but SPCI believes that they would do much better in this project where they 

could have much better visibility (see their store in Scottsdale Quarter, for example). 

! Depending on restrictions that the MLB teams might impose.....the project could benefit from sports 

shoe and apparel stores that carry a strong lifestyle connection: Nike, Adidas, Puma, Reebok. 

! Depending on the direction taken, REI might be considered....a bigger box that is difficult to camouflage 

but some of their stores are very interesting visually (the 1416 Platte Street in the 1901 Denver Tramway 


12 


Building). The baby boomer generation as they retire are not likely to follow the same activity patterns as 

their parents and are proving to be much more active. 

! Fast fashion (not well represented in ATC)....Zara, H&M, Benetton, Topshop (not yet in the USA) and 

Uniqlo are among the leaders. These are not well represented (yet) in the Phoenix area. Forever 21 is a 

member of this group but they are already across the street to the north in ATC. Urban Outfitters could 

be considered to be part of this group. For older female customers, Chico’s and J.Jill are representative. 

! Jewelry: The project might wish to skip this category, as it will be difficult to offer more stores or more 

variety and selection than at the ATC. Charming Charlie has more than jewelry but that is a large part of 

their merchandise mix. The chain is expanding fast and is very popular with certain demographic 

segments, but can it deliver uniqueness to the project? The rest of its merchandise is definitely fast 

fashion and is organized in their stores by color. Perhaps it would be best to wait and see how the rest of 

the tenant mix evolves. 

! Accessories: This is a tough category to dominate, but there are individual retailers of interest. This 

would be a better location for Oakley than across the street in ATC. 

! Lifestyle retailers: For consideration: Abercrombie and Fitch, Active, Anthropologie, Aeropostale, 

12 

Banana Republic, Diesel, Gap , Guess, Lucky Brand, Quiksilver, Tommy Bahama, True Religion, White 

House Black Market, Athleta, Windsor...there is a lot of variety here, the project will need to decide on 

the orientation(s) it wishes to pursue as not all age groups will be pursing the same lifestyle. There 

should be enough retailers here who will elect not to be in ATC (American Eagle, Coldwater Creek, 

Not what they once were in terms of power, but still significant. Their power to negotiate lease terms is less than it was ten years ago 

but they still are a strong brand. 


13 

14 

Next to a Chico’s. 


Express, Fossil, Victoria’s Secret are across Bell Road in ATC) and don’t want to be in a power center, 

but also want a stronger location than Park West and a better project than Norterra. 

! As a “place” of activity and active lifestyles, a sports fitness club/gym could be a possibility. This is also an 

operation that could take appreciable second level space and would not have to be only on the ground 

level. LA Fitness is a good operation, yet they already have at least 29 operations in the greater Phoenix 

th rd 

area including four within some proximity to the PSC site (North 54 Avenue and Bell Road, North 83 

th st 

Avenue and Union Hills, North 67 Avenue & West Peoria Avenue, North 91 Avenue and West 

Northern Avenue), so their ability to lend any kind of distinctive flavor to the project is limited. 

! Another option which would line up with this general active and healthy lifestyle thrust would be a 

woman’s day spa. A smaller version would be something like the Bellagio Spa and Salon in Orchard 

13 

Village Center in Irvine (California). There are a multitude of different kinds of spas, a larger variation 

14 

would be The Spa at South Coast Plaza (The Spa and Fitness Club, Costa Mesa, California). There is a 

relatively large population of women in the area who are either older and want to at least feel younger if 

they can not look younger, or who are going to be aging out of middle age and do not want to appear to 

be doing so (baby boomers). 

Not actually in South Coast Plaza, but close, on Lake Shore Drive. Nordstrom’s has a small women’s day spa. 


DESIGN 


The design of the project is one way to strengthen the project’s strategic competitive advantage. From a design 

perspective, the expanded project will need to produce a major “wow” effect with the customers in this market. 

It will need to be “eye-catching,” visually inspiring, and unique—unlike any other project in this 

market—everything that the surrounding projects are not. 

! A CONCEPT OF PLACE: If this project expansion is going to succeed, it absolutely MUST become even 

more of a “place” anything in this quadrant of the Phoenix area. Otherwise, why do it? The project 

must provide “a place” where customers “want” to come and shop and/or dine...have an “experience.” 

- The project as a “place” must deliver an authentic and emotional “experience”....above and 

beyond just more goods and services that are being sold. The need for this project to 

establish this reputation and image today, in 2011, is much greater than several years ago. 

Customers expect more. 

- Additional benefits: 

1. a prolonged “shelf life” (life span) for the project 

2. maximization of sales 

3. forestalling of competition, or, raising the “bar” for new competitors 

4. maintaining a competitive advantage 

It will be necessary to create a strong “sense of place.” 


15 

! BATHROOMS: 


- “It is difficult to design a space that will not attract people. What is remarkable is how often 

this has been accomplished.” William Whyte wrote this bit of wisdom back in 1988, and it is 

15 

even more true today. 

- All of the existing shopping centers along Bell Road (and most of Phoenix) do not create 

any serious sense of “place” for their customers. In the opinion of SPCI, for example, ATC 

failed totally in this regard (however, in 1990, this was not really considered to be so 

important). 

- The retail expansion for this project will not succeed because of the “bigness” of the space 

or its apparent “power” and “size”—the property is not large enough to support this kind 

of strategy. Instead, it will succeed because it creates a stronger “emotional” bond with the 

customer. 

- Nothing defines the customer-friendliness or comfort of a centro comercial more than its 

common area amenities. This is always the very first characteristic that SPCI looks at when 

assessing a project. 

- Every customer needs to use the facilities, sooner or later. 

William Whyte, City, Rediscovering the Center, New York: Doubleday, 1988, p. 109. See also his work, The Social Life of Small 

Urban Spaces. 


16 

! COMFORT: 


16 

- The project might consider improving this experience. The customer should be amazed. 

- Design must focus on creating a comfortable, “easy to use”, and appealing physical 

environment for customers, while still remaining cost sensitive. This means spending 

money where the customers can actually see, feel, or use the “enhancements” (easy ingress, 

easy egress, good vehicular circulation, wide aisles in the parking areas to make getting in 

and out easier, sufficient parking, comfortable places to sit down, great way finding signage, 

etc.). 

- Pay attention to the street furniture package. Consider providing some comfortable chairs 

for customers to sit down and rest. Many retail customers are older. Many have children 

with them (or grandchildren). Many are wearing uncomfortable shoes. Many are tired. 

Many want to meet friends and must wait for family or friends to arrive.....or they want to 

wait outside while other family members shop....so provide multiple places within the retail 

envelope for them to sit down. Too many benches in most shopping centers are hard, 

uncomfortable, cold. Think about the customer as a guest...“Would you sit down on one of 

these benches?” 

See, for example, Carlsbad Outlets in Carlsbad, California (yes, the best bathrooms in a shopping center in California are in an outlet 

mall!) or The Grove, Los Angeles, California, or Americana at Brand, Glendale, California. 


17 

18 

19 

! DETAILS: 


It is the job of security to keep the chairs from “walking off.” Various studies have also noted that once the residents come to view a 

project as “their place,” theft declines markedly. See Whyte, p. 119ff. 

Whyte, p. 117. 

- The chairs should be movable, not permanently bolted to the ground. Let the customers 

decide where and how they want to sit and in how large, or small, of a group. The goal here 

is to foster social interaction and conversations. 17 

- Think about eliminating benches. People like to face each other when talking, not sit 

shoulder to shoulder. Encourage direct communication—benches make this very difficult. 

“Benches are design artifacts the purpose of which is to punctuate architectural photographs.” 18 

- Retail is detail. This is the heart of creating a better shopping experience. 

- In order to achieve this objective, different materials, fixtures, textures, colors, and finishes 

should be used in this project. 

- Avoid the “to infinity and beyond” feeling. 

- Materials, fixtures, textures, and finishes should be varied and visually interesting, so that 

19 

this project clearly is in a “class by itself.” This is more a variety issue that an expense 

issue. 

Country Club Plaza, developed by Jesse Clyde Nichols in 1922, in Kansas City, does this very well. So does Highland Park, in Dallas, a 

smaller project from the 1940s. 


20 

- Different building setbacks. 

- Different building heights. 


- The “look” of the retail expansion does not need to be “power” and “strength” but rather 

“interesting” and “inviting.” 

- If possible, this could be realized through the creation of sufficient smaller “zones” and 

areas that invite customers to stay and linger. 

- SPCI recommends the avoidance of using the same color scheme for the entire common 

area flooring, for the walls, and for any support columns. Vary the color and texture 

20 

package. The goal here is to emotionally connect with the customer and establish a bond; 

this is very important (should be easy because of the bland retail architecture along Bell 

Road). 

- Visual merchandising is not just the job of the individual merchants, the entire retail 

project must be visually merchandised as well....“This is a Really Interesting Place.” 

! FLOORING/HARDSCAPE: 

- This is an area of importance. The goal is to slow the customer down. 

- Ideally, SPCI would argue for the use of different materials, rather than having just one 

type of surface. 

See Horton Plaza, in San Diego, for what may be an extreme example, but it is effective. 


! FLOWS: 


- Show creativity....avoid the endless, plain pedestrian or vehicular corridors stretching off 

straight into “infinity.” This looks great in renderings, but it does not create any sense of 

“place” that is capable of “holding” the customer. This type of “endless” environment 

tends to diminish the customer’s feeling of importance within the project, reducing in turn 

the desire to spend more time in the project. The curved corridors of the initial plans can 

help to solve this problem nicely. 

- This project must maximize customer flows into and around the different project 

components, if it is to succeed as a town center. This means that the corridors and 

walkways must easily, efficiently, and conveniently “flow” pedestrians from the parking 

areas to consumer destinations and back out again. 

- Customers must not get “lost”. 

- Customers must not become disoriented. 

- Customers must not become confused. 

- They must be able to easily, comfortably, and quickly see where they are going. 

- The route to their destination within the project must be visually interesting and 

stimulating. Eating and shopping are sensual experiences that involve all the senses. The 

brain of the consumer needs to be free to soak up the impressions of the environment, not 

concentrating on finding “the way.” 


21 

! FOCAL POINTS: 


- Consider the introduction of distinctive focal points to help orient and guide customers 

around the project—clocks, fountains, taller trees, sculptures, kiosks, obelisks, artwork, 

bandstands, gazebos, sun dials...anything that will attract the attention of customers and 

help them to orient themselves, while moving around the project, meeting friends, or 

21 

relaxing. 

- Focal points also provide distinct places for visitors to meet their friends and relatives. 

! FOOD COURT/FOOD GARDEN/FOOD TERRACE: 

- The food court is dead, it is so “yesterday.” The old food court is going upscale. If such an 

area is to be included (not SPCI’s preferred recommendation) then develop more of a food 

“garden” or food “terrace.” This requires more decorations, more landscaping, chairs and 

tables of different sizes, shapes and heights, and partitions to create more intimate dining 

areas so that the area does not look like the lunch room of a factory or the dining hall of a 

university dormitory. The Grove in Los Angeles and Americana at Brand in Glendale 

(California) are representative of this trend; “dining decks” can be seen at Century City 

Mall (West Los Angeles)and the refurbished Santa Monica Place. 

- This will require a careful recruitment of food tenants, with a focus on offering a good 

variety of foods, not just filling space with whomever appears to be able to pay the rent. 

This is an issue of creativity....Carlsbad Outlets in California has a huge and elaborate compass in the hardscape of the central plaza. 


22 

! FURNITURE: 

Whyte, pp. 141ff. 


- As William Whyte noted, “If you want to seed a place with activity, the first thing to do is to 

put out food.” 22 

- This is an often overlooked detail. Make sure that there are some comfortable places for 

customers to actually sit down (and this includes ledges because people also like to sit on 

ledges). 

- In addition to eating and socializing, using a laptop computer, or using a cell phone or MP3 

player of I-Pod or I-Pad, “people watching” is a major social activity....so give your 

customers a chance to do this, wherever possible. 

- Make sure that the chairs are actually comfortable (“user friendly”). The majority of 

shopping center furniture is very uncomfortable and provides no lower back support. 

- Avoid benches (if possible). They are uncomfortable and do not facilitate social 

interaction. 

- Men in general do not like to shop as much as women. If they have come with their 

families, give them a place (preferably several) to at least sit down while their wives or girl 

friends shop. 


23 

! ILLUMINATION: 


- Seating elements must be dispersed throughout the expanded project, not concentrated just 

in one area—this will become important as the number of restaurants increases. The sight 

of people eating will attract more customers. 

- Introduce at least some variety in color, if not also in texture and style, to the elements used 

in the project. 

- Retail is not only detail, it is also theater. So consider decorative lighting as well. 

- Setting the “right” ambiance is very important. A lot of shopping and dining happens at 

night. This will require a lot of indirect and back lighting. Make this project a really special 

place at night. 23 

- Illumination will be very important in identifying this project and enhancing security and 

safety at night (not always compatible with the expectations of residential neighbors, 

however). A lot of shopping and entertainment happens at night and during the winter 

months, when there are fewer hours of daylight. SPCI suggests retaining the services of a 

specialist consultant in this area in order to maximize the results and to create an ambiance 

that facilitates shopping comfort. 

- Many projects provide illumination inside the project but tend to ignore the parking areas. 

Customers must feel safe also at night and be able to find their way quickly and easily 

around the project. 

See City Place, West Palm Beach, Florida for a good example, also The Tustin Marketplace (Tustin, California). 


24 

See The Grove, Los Angeles. 


- An illumination specialist is recommended, because there are many different ways to light a 

project, and many types of specialty and decorative lighting. The goal is not to blast the 

retail customer out of the project with brightness, but rather to seduce them into coming 

frequently, bringing friends, and staying around. 

24 

- All lighting fixtures do not have to be identical. Some variation in style adds more visual 

interest to the project. 

! KARTS AND KIOSKS: 

- Karts and kiosks serve to add visual merchandising elements to the project + they can serve 

as retail incubators. 

- However, more is not better. Do not overload the corridors. Since karts can be a good 

source of income, many centers have the idea that more karts and kiosks are better, and 

that even more, are still even better. This is NOT the case, a zone can be overloaded to the 

point where visibility and circulation are impaired. 

- The goal of a kart program is first and foremost, not to be an additional cash flow, but to 

break up the monotony of large empty spaces, and to provide visual interest to the retail 

experience for the customer. The karts and kiosks should obviously produce rent, but that 

should be the byproduct, not the guiding force in the program. 

- A program can also serve as a business incubator, with successful kart vendors eventually 

moving up to lease store space. 


! LANDSCAPING: 


- Make sure that the merchandise fits the strategy of the project.....kiosk operators must have 

a clear focus and they must stick to what they promised....and not operate a mobile flea 

market selling cheap merchandise. 

- This is somewhat difficult given the size of the property and the Arizona environment. 

Still, there are always enough small dead zones for a property to have some kind of 

landscaping program. Landscaping should build the ambiance....which requires careful 

planning, otherwise solitary and uncoordinated plants “stuck” in pots create the opposite of 

the intended effect. Far too many retail projects “stick” a few sickly plants in a few 

oversized pots and this effort suffices as “the landscaping plan.” The money and effort are 

wasted, and in some cases, the project is uglier than without the “landscaping.” 

- If the project wants to become a “place” then landscaping is an important component. 

Like illumination, this is part of the “show” for the customers. Again, SPCI advises the 

retention of a specialist consultant in order to maximize the results for this key component. 

- There have been huge advances in the last few years in the uses of materials for artificial 

flowers, bushes, trees, and other plants, which keep maintenance costs lower although there 

is more “up front cost.” Unless the project is willing to pay for the services of a really good 

professional gardener, live plants will be a problem because, in general, building 

maintenance and service companies tend to employ the lowest cost labor available. These 

individuals generally have a low threshold of interest in the project and tend to over water 

or under water plants. 


! MAINTENANCE: 

! PARKING: 


- Materials, fixtures, and finishes should be selected with a thought as to easy maintenance 

(to keep maintenance costs low). Spend the money where the customer will notice the 

difference (and where it will help convenience, for example in the arrangement of parking 

and circulation). 

- Special attention should be given to designing for easy maintenance and housekeeping. 

This project should aim to be the best maintained retail project in this sector of the market. 

This is one more detail that will help this project to further “stand out” from its retail 

competition. This is all about competitive advantage. 

- Preventive maintenance will remain important. Customers should not see any problems. 

Things need to be fixed before they become problems. 

- Design can facilitate maintenance. Careful consideration needs to be given to how dry 

trash (packing materials), wet trash (from restaurants and food vendors), grease traps and 

customer trash is handled and disposed of. 

- PARKING IS POWER for a shopping center, especially for any center with aspirations to 

provide convenience goods such as groceries or dining. 

- This project should attempt to offer convenience, ease, and comfort within reason...this is 

not a neighborhood center where customers can park right in front of the front entrance to 

a store. If the project is to “lure” residents who live farther away, then the trip must be 



worth their effort. Visitors should not have to spend more time “hunting” for a parking 

space than they spent in driving to the project. Ideally, SPCI would like to see a US 

parking ratio of around 5:1 (5 spaces per 1,000 sq. ft. for the retail core). This will take 

some coordination because of the needs of the baseball venue and the multiplex cinemas. 

- The retail parking plan should offer some curbside spaces to create the image of activity 

throughout the day. Within the garages, it might be good to have a number of diagonal 

parking spaces for easier “in and out” so that parking circulation does not stall while drivers 

negotiate 90-degree turns in areas of potential traffic congestion. This is not the most 

efficient use of the land, but it is much more customer friendly. Even a few such spaces will 

produce a more positive psychological effect on customers. 

- Circulation patterns must be clearly and repeatedly marked to avoid parking chaos during 

peak periods. 

- The entrance and exit options must be clearly marked in large, reflective letters to reduce 

confusion. It is SPCI’s experience that most shopping center garages do a very poor job in 

this situation. 

- Parking aisles for the retail parking areas, should be wide enough to actually be practical 

for SUV and van and pickup truck drivers. This will allow cars to more easily pass each 

other in an aisle, if a vehicle is waiting for another vehicle to pull out. This prevents traffic 

backups and adds to convenience. The retail customers have a choice (to go and shop or 

eat elsewhere), unlike the commercial office users, who are more or less “captives” of 

whatever situation is offered. 

- Lighting must eliminate dark spaces and corners at night. 


! SECURITY: 


- Consider using the columns in the parking garage to better inform customers where they 

have parked, through the use of different colors, graphics, numbers and letters. Depending 

on the budget, there are now electronic and scanning parking systems available to instantly 

guide customers to their cars and to help them locate their cars if they can not remember 

their location. 

- Signage in the parking garage should be large enough to be easily seen and understood 

from a good distance. 

- There should be tight security in this project, adding to the comfort and safety of the 

customers. It is impossible to create a “sense of place” if customers do not feel safe and 

secure. This is important especially for Sun City residents. 

- Convenience also means good security. 

- The greatest advertisement for security will be the presence of women, and the presence of 

women with children. If women are seen in this project in large numbers and they are seen 

with children, the subliminal message will be that they feel “safe” in this environment and 

feel safe enough to come and bring their children. Conversely, the opposite situation also 

sends a subtle message (“dangerous”). 

- Security has a lot to do with design, especially sight lines, which means the avoidance of 

“dark” (and hidden) corners. Any location should be able to be viewed from multiple 

vantage points. 


! SIGNAGE: 


- The project should also be well-lit at night, and most especially in the parking areas. This is 

not a place to save money, as retail customers instinctively avoid dark places. Good 

illumination will add to customer safety and even more importantly, the perception of 

customer safety. 

- Security will need to be carefully planned, combining the latest in modern technology as 

well as human resources. Too much obvious firepower will scare away retail customers as 

much as too little. SPCI suggests engaging a retail security consultant to develop a focused 

strategy. It will only take one serious incident to send customers flocking to other projects 

or locations. The loss in sales that will result will threaten the entire project. 

- This is part of the “show.” 

- Make sure that there are ample project directories in the expansion, especially in all 

transition areas/entrances. 

- Include way finding signage in all new zones of the project and the new parking areas....do 

not frustrate the customer. 

- Signage will need to be visible, distinctive, and bold, and illuminated at night (something 

that is often overlooked in many retail projects). 

- Signage will be important not only to identify the project and its tenants, but also so that 

customers know how to get into the project and once they have parked, how to get around 

the project (directories, directional signage). Good signage will be necessary for the 


25 

! SOCIAL MEDIA: 

! SUSTAINABILITY: 


customers getting around the project on foot as well as those who are getting around it by 

automobile, or being dropped off by a taxi. 

- Build a strong Internet presence with the various social media channels of communication. 

- This aspect is closely tied with promotions, activities, and special events. 

- This is a coming trend and state-of-the-art projects that wish to claim leading status will 

25 

need to pay at least some attention to this value. However, there is a definite financial 

premium to be paid for having “green” buildings, especially if they are to be LEEDs 

certified, or even classified as a SEED building. 

- In order to succeed as an environmentally sensitive project, this center does not need to be 

a LEED certified project. The project can, nonetheless, consider various stages of 

sustainability. There are a long list of measures regarding energy usage, selection of light 

fixtures, rainwater collection and dispersal, usage of local materials, institution of recycling 

programs when the project is in operation, the recycling of construction debris, etc....that 

can greatly reduce the operational cost of the project. 

Rudolph Milian, The Retail Green Agenda. Sustainable Practices for Retailers and Shopping Centers, New York: ICSC, 2008. 



- The use of water conserving plumbing systems (dual flush, low flow toilets, water less 

urinals, flow controlled water faucets, low water use fixtures of all types) should be 

considered. 

- This is Arizona....drought tolerant landscaping and drip irrigation will reduce water usage 

and water bills. A good storm water treatment program can use natural filtration basins to 

treat storm water run off. 

- Incorporating a recycled water system (treated sewage effluent) might be considered to 

provide water for irrigation....depending on the overall water volume requirements and 

production of the site and city regulations and fees. 

- If possible, consider recycling construction waste materials and using recycled materials in 

actual construction. 

- Use reflective materials (roofing, paving) to reduce heat absorption and the “heat island” 

effect. 

- Consider incorporating energy efficient mechanical and cooling systems...the savings in 

operational energy costs can balance out up front expenses. 

- Consider using environmentally friendly materials, glues, adhesives, paints in building 

construction. 


! TECHNOLOGY: 


- Be sure that the expansion is included within the wireless hotspot zone....this is necessary if 

this project is to become a “place.” 

! TRANSITION ZONES: 

- It’s “show time.” 

- Be sure to emphasize that a customer has arrived----make them feel welcome with bold 

entry signage, directories, good directional signage, graphics, landscaping, and 

illumination—at the entrances into the project....whether they are pedestrians coming from 

the surrounding residential areas, from the universities, automotive dealerships, or 

commercial office buildings (or even Wal-Mart or Costco or Target). No project in the 

area does this well. 

- For many retail centers, transition zones are just “dead zones.” Use the space to entertain, 

amuse, welcome, inform, or amaze the customer (see The Grove and Americana at Brand). 

- Transition zones are to “slow” the customer down. 

- Entrances reflect the energy within (or the lack of energy within) the project. 



RENTS 


! This will be a topic that can generate a lot of discussion. As a generalization, triple net rents in the 

primary trade area generally range from around $8.00 a square foot into the mid-thirties, with the vast 

majority of spaces going in the $10-20 per sf. range for tenant spaces in the 1,000-2,000. sf range. Larger 

spaces command lower rents on a sliding scale downwards. In better projects and better locations, there 

are rents in the mid-twenties. Depending on location, restaurants can be higher and jewelry stores are as 

well (essentially concentrated inside ATC except for Jared). This situation might appear to be 

horrendously low, and it is, but the vast majority of existing retail space, in the opinion of SPCI, actually 

deserves this market treatment because much of the retail space in Peoria and Glendale is old or even 

obsolete, or poorly located within a center, or poorly configured....or in one way or another, is not really 

“great” space. Even at ATC, SPCI considers the majority of tenant spaces to be obsolete and 

unattractive (too long and narrow) and SPCI is somewhat surprised that MaceRich has not done more to 

change the situation. 

! Therefore, not a lot of what currently exists in the market is really all that relevant, so to a certain extend, 

the broker team is going to have to be given targets that will cover the cost of the project plus a return, 

and then asked to negotiate for those targets. This is not as dire as it sounds, because it will certainly 

send the message that this is not yet another typical shopping center in the West Valley. There is a 

surcharge for special environments, if they can deliver the customers. From the perspective of SPCI, 

there is not a better place to attempt this, as the PSC site is in an establish shopping and dining district 

and easily accessed from any direction. 

! The economic situation of the last years has been keep many leases short, to three or five years. This is 

obviously not encouraging news for investors, but again, a lot will depend on how well the leasing team 



performs and how well they “sell” the site.....this is a strong site, there are not that many sites in the West 

Valley that will be able to compete with it in terms of its fundamental characteristics. 

! Absorption has been very slow in this sector over the last two years, in fact net absorption as been close to 

zero or negative depending on the year, but keep in mind that there is a lot of poor quality space on the 

market and that much of it deserves to be permanently eliminated (as in the old Costco space and the old 

th 

Levitz space on the northeastern corner of North 59 Avenue and Bell Road). Comparing absorption 

levels with ten years ago is interesting but not very helpful, as a number of projects were opening or 

nearing completion in 2001. While absorption was higher then than in 2011, a lot of the space being 

absorbed was power center space (Arrowhead Promenade, for example). 

! Tenant improvements will be a major area of concessions, in all likelihood. SPCI expects many of the 

targeted retailers and restaurants will want some kind of TIAs. There is, after all, a reason why many of 

these retailers are visually interesting and leaders in visual merchandising. 

! This all sounds challenging, it is, but that is the only way this project is going to seize a significant 

competitive strategic advantage. The easy route is to do “another” power center and lease space to 

“whomever” can write a rent check monthly. However, that option is likely to also result, depending on 

the configurations, is substantial small store and restaurant vacant space because other than price, the 

project is not going to be able to offer enough value to do otherwise, in the professional opinion of SPCI. 

! This discussion can be pursued and addressed in follow up additional detail if necessary. 


SALES VOLUME ANALYSIS

COMMENTS 


SPCI estimates that a regional town center format of shopping center at the proposed Peoria Sports Complex site, in 2011 

would perform, under the many assumptions made in the following charts, at approximately 137 million dollars in annual 

sales. This includes both shopper goods (GAFO) and convenience goods. 

Some conclusions of the following charts, which all assume a growing economy and growing population: 

o In 2011, this result supports a regional town center of approximately 275,000 sf of shopper and 

convenience goods (service retail such as banks and financial institutions excluded), if the criteria for 

operation is an efficiency ratio of 500 dollars of sales per sf per year (which SPCI would consider to be a 

medium-range efficiency target for this type of project). The very best projects in the USA perform at 

approximately 1,500 dollars per sf, but it would be unrealistic to expect this project to start out at such a 

level....it takes years, generally, to mature into such a position. This does not include service retail. 

- As a reference point, Kierland Commons originally was 305,000 sf in its initial 

configuration, with 47 stores and restaurants. Currently, it is 434,690 sf. with 75 stores and 

restaurants. 

- As a different reference point, The Shops at Norterra have 350,000 sf. of retail space....but 

the overall ambiance and the resulting experience to be had at Norterra is entirely different 

from Kierland Commons (less intimate, less interesting, less satisfying)...not only in its 

current configuration, but in its earlier and smaller configuration as well. 

- The original Borgata, in Scottsdale, was 87,500 sf....small enough to be intimate, but the 

layout of the design precluded sufficient circulation....small size does not guarantee success 

either. 



- The Shops at Gainey Village, in Scottsdale, are approximately 138,000 sf. 

- Highland Park Village, in Dallas, Texas, is approximately 200,000 sf. 

- Scottsdale Quarter has 370,000 sf. Of retail, and if entertainment options are included, then 

the total is 405,00 sf. 

- The Grove, in Los Angeles, is 575,000 sf....but Nordstrom has 122,000 sf. of the total. 

o At a sales efficiency of 680 dollars of sales per sf per year (a higher target for planning purposes and one 

that SPCI much prefers), then the trade area can support a regional town center of approximately 

200,000 sf of shopper and convenience goods (service retail excluded) in 2011. This is actually either a 

large village town center, or a smaller regional town center, depending on how it is laid out in terms of 

design—there is no hard and fast delineation between these formats. 

o At a sales efficiency of 380 dollars per sf per year (lower than what SPCI would target as an efficiency 

standard, but still within the range of feasibility), a regional town center of approximately 360,000 sf can 

be supported as of 2011. This includes shopper goods and convenience goods, but does not include 

service-oriented retail. This is starting to be a large project, and as a project grows in size, the quality of 

the ambiance starts to erode. 

o None of these estimates include non-GAFO and non-convenience uses, such as financial services, a 

bowling center or a sports fitness club. 

If these charts are broken down in order to study the projected sales for 2011 by category, then: 


1 


! The demand for shopper goods as of 2011 is estimated at currently 47 million dollars (see Chart II). This allows 

for approximately 70,000 sf of shopper good retail space at a higher efficiency of 680 dollars/sf and 120,000 sf at 

a lower efficiency of 380 dollars/sf ratio. It should be stressed that this is only approximately, since one or two 

retailers often can exercise a major impact on the acquisition of additional co-tenants, and a particular constellation 

of specialty stores can exert a much stronger pull on the trade area in terms of capture percentages. So this should be 

1 

regarded as more of a “floor” in terms of sizing. For example, acquisition of a Crate and Barrel in this project would 

not only eat up a lot of the shopper good space, but it would also have a major impact on the decisions of other 

retailers and together, this would alter the dynamics of this situation, pushing up the amount of sustainable retail. 

! The demand for convenience goods as of 2011 is approximately 90.2 million dollars, which can, in theory, 

support between 130,000 sf and 240,000 sf of convenience retail space in 2011 (See Chart III), depending on the 

desired efficiency performance. On the surface, this is more than enough space to support whatever constellation of 

restaurants and specialty supermarkets might be recruited for this project, but again, the selection of specific tenants is 

crucial here...the selection of restaurants that mirror what is already available in the immediate commercial zone will 

result in a situation of lowered demand and less capture. This project must deliver an experience that is significantly 

different from any surrounding shopping center. Otherwise, there is no need to develop it. 

In sizing the project, since the retail component will not open in 2011, it is necessary to project sales growth potential 

into the future in order to achieve a more realistic sizing target , or at least understand some of the options. Although 

these projections are obviously speculative, and subject to a lot of interdependent variables, they provide a perspective 

on sizing for the retail and for judging the potential of the site and for making leasing decisions. 

Therefore, Chart IV provides a “look ahead” to the year 2016 and provides a better planning target for sizing the 

project. 

Large stores can push on 40,000 sf, although the smallest units can be only 6,000 sf. The typical size is probably approximately 10,000 sf. At 

Kierland Commons, Crate and Barrel has 37,066 sf. 



1. If the sales standard is 680 dollars per sf per year, then: 

o Under the assumption of modest economic growth of between 1-3% (a more gradual scenario, 

which seems more realistic in the current economic situation), the proposed site could sustain a 

regional town center of approximately 240,000 sf by the year 2016, at the same sales standard of 

680 dollars/sf. With 5,000 sf of services included, this would be a retail project of approximately 

245,000 sf. 

From a competitive situation, this is actually not a bad size, as the project would have enough “critical 

mass” to be taken seriously by the consumers, and to be noticed by visitors to the area, yet the amount 

of retail space would not be insurmountable in terms of the ability to actually lease it, in the opinion of 

SPCI. Likewise, this size of project makes it easy to preserve the kind of intimate details and sense of 

environment that can provide a compelling emotional experience for visitors and provide a competitive 

advantage. 

In terms of absorption, SPCI suggests that a window of six to eighteen months be considered. There 

are a huge number of variables that can affect this and the amount of supply of unleased space in the 

trade area is not very relevant when trying to estimate absorption going forward. The only lesson that, 

at least to SPCI, appears obvious, is that a shopping center that has an unfocused leasing strategy and 

that is following a simple “fill up the space” plan, when combined with an inefficient and poorly 

thought out design...is going to struggle and will have a lot of vacant space. 

Historical absorption trends for the trade area are interesting, but given the differences in project 

formats and layouts, it is difficult for SPCI to see how there is much data that is relevant for the PSC 

project. The whole premise for the PSC project is that in order to succeed, the project must be 

significantly different from anything in the trade area in order to gain a competitive advantage. If it is 

not different, then it has no advantage, and then it can expect the same results as are obvious at many 

of the surrounding shopping centers—a good amount of vacant smaller store space. 


2 


When one examines the inventory of vacant space in the trade area, there are some large spaces 

available, in particular the Costco space on Bell Road. For SPCI, the fact that this space has remained 

vacant for so long is more a reflection on the existence of unimaginative redevelopment and leasing 

strategies than on market demand----there has been plenty of activity along the Bell Road corridor 

during this time frame....just not another similarly-sized “big box” who has come along and taken over 

the space. Much of the existing smaller store retail space that is available in the trade area (in 

Arrowhead Crossing, North Valley Power Center, Arrowhead Festival, for example) is not well-located 

within those centers, and often not well-positioned with respect to either the center anchors or possible 

co-tenants. For SPCI, the project known as The Shops at Bell Mar (Surprise) does not appear to have 

been well thought out, well designed or well positioned, so the amount of vacant space there is not 

surprising. The Shops at Norterra suffer from a similar situation—a strange project (for SPCI) that is 

2 

attempting to merge a town center atmosphere with a main street together with big box retail. To 

compare any of this vacant retail space at these neighboring projects with what is planned for the PSC 

property is to compare very different situations and items. 

o Under the assumption of good economic growth of between 1%-6% (more accelerated economic 

growth, assuming recovery in the near term), the proposed site could sustain a regional town 

center of approximately 245,000 sf by the year 2016, at the same sales standard of 680 dollars/sf. 

Another 5,000 sf of services would allow for a total retail project of 250,000 m². 

This is also a healthy amount of retail space, SPCI considers this to be sufficient critical mass to make 

the market take notice of the project, but not so much that the ambiance and special environment 

become lost in a large project. 

2. At a more modest sales efficiency of 500 dollars per sf per year, then: 

There are projects with big box tenants that operate as shadow anchors, but generally these are on the periphery of the project and are not part 

of the main street environment. See Santana Row in San Jose (Best Buy, The Container Store). 




shopping center site could sustain a regional town center of approximately 310,000 sf by the year 

2016. With 5,000 sf of services, this would be a retail project of 315,000 sf. 

This is a decision for the developer in terms of both the size that he wants and the rents that he expects. 

Size wise, this is more than enough to exert influence over the trade area. At larger sizes, the ambiance 

of the project will start to seriously diminish, although the kind of layout and design of the project can 

impact this situation. 


could sustain a regional town center of approximately 335,000 sf of retail space by the year 2016 

(see Chart IV). Retail services would add another 5,000 sf, making this a project of 340,000 sf. 

This is nice, but at this size, the project will start to push against the boundaries of what constitutes a 

reasonably intimate, friendly and emotionally inviting environment for the consumer. To succeed, this 

project does not necessarily need to be “large.” It needs to be good. That means it must be very 

focused on the value that it is attempting to deliver to the consumer, must understand that consumer 

and must emotionally connect to that consumer. In a market with a lot of product, a new project can 

not attempt to sell everything to everyone. Everyone is not the customer. 

3. At a sales efficiency of 380 dollars per sf per year, then the following conclusions are possible. This is 

somewhat less than SPCI would like to target as a sales efficiency, but still, in the opinion of SPCI, within 

the bounds of allowable performance. 


Peoria site would be able to sustain a regional town center of approximately 410,000 sf of retail by 


3 


2016 (See Chart IV). Another 5,000 sf with the service retail would make for a total retail project 

of 415,000 sf. 

This is moving in on being a large project, and SPCI would recommend against this scenario. 


could sustain a regional town center of approximately 440,000 sf by the year 2016. Adding another 

5,000 sf for retail services makes for a total retail project of 445,000 sf. 

This is larger than needed to create an impact, and there is no need to make the leasing process longer. 

Also, it will be difficult to preserve an intimate ambiance as the project gets to be this large. Since the 

ambiance is going to be a major point of differentiation and a major competitive advantage, the 

developer must be careful about “giving away” the core value of the project that makes it better. A 

smaller leasing footprint, by restricting the supply of space, should also be able to push up demand, and 

ultimately, push up rental rates as demand exceeds supply within the project. 

In conclusion, SPCI is of the opinion that the best size for the proposed regional town center is 

somewhere in the range of 240,000 sf - 350,000 sf, with a very maximum size of 370,000 sf 

(including the service retail, which is approximately 5,000 sf). A regional town center at the 

larger end of the spectrum would include a specialty department store + a healthy number of 

3 

specialty stores. It would also allow for multiple restaurants and fast(er) food operators , in 

addition to the service-oriented retail. 

See comment on food options. SPCI prefers fast casual and fine dining options, but is not opposed to counter service operations, depending on 

how they are handled. SPCI much prefers the food garden/food terrace approach of The Grove (Los Angeles) and Americana at Brand 

(Glendale, California) to the conventional, and very sterile, food court. 



SALES CHARTS COMPILED FOR THE PEORIA STUDY: 

Chart I presents the estimated primary and secondary TRADE AREA POPULATIONS and their 

components. 

Chart IIA presents a summary of estimated (TOTAL) OVERALL SHOPPER GOODS (GAFO) SALES 

CAPTURE in the PRIMARY TRADE AREAS (PEORIA AND GLENDALE) were the retail 

project to have opened in 2011. 

Chart IIB presents a summary of estimated OVERALL SHOPPER GOODS (GAFO) SALES CAPTURE 

in the SECONDARY TRADE AREAS of SUN CITY AND SURPRISE were the retail project 

to have opened in 2011. 

Chart IIC presents a summary of estimated OVERALL SHOPPER GOODS (GAFO) SALES CAPTURE 

in the SECONDARY TRADE AREAS of WICKENBURG AND NORTERRA were the retail 

project to have opened in 2011. 

Chart IID presents a summary of estimated OVERALL SHOPPER GOODS (GAFO) SALES CAPTURE 

in the SECONDARY TRADE AREAS of ANTHEM AND EL MIRAGE were the retail project 

to have opened in 2011. 

Chart IIIA presents a summary of estimated (TOTAL) OVERALL CONVENIENCE GOODS SALES 

CAPTURE in the PRIMARY TRADE AREAS (PEORIA AND GLENDALE) in 2011. 



Chart IIIB presents a summary of estimated OVERALL CONVENIENCE GOODS SALES CAPTURE in 

the SECONDARY TRADE AREAS of SUN CITY AND SURPRISE were the retail project to 

open in 2011. 

Chart IIIC presents a summary of estimated OVERALL CONVENIENCE GOODS SALES CAPTURE in 

the SECONDARY TRADE AREAS of WICKENBURG AND NORTERRA were the retail 

project to open in 2011. 

Chart IIID presents a summary of estimated OVERALL CONVENIENCE GOODS SALES CAPTURE in 

the SECONDARY TRADE AREAS of ANTHEM AND EL MIRAGE were the retail project to 

open in 2011. 

Chart IV examines estimated potential SALES GROWTH for the regional town center, at 1%-3% and 1%- 

6% growth scenarios. This is the result of combining the results of Charts II and III. 


METHODOLOGY 

The Charts are based on: 


1. An evaluation of data from ESRI, various governmental sources (US Census Bureau, US Depart of Labor, 

Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona Dept of Commerce and its Office of Employment and 

Population Statistics, Arizona Department of Transportation, City of Peoria, City of Glendale) and other 

private sources (chambers of commerce), supplemented by and checked against the results of fieldwork. 

2. SPCI’s own estimated population and household figures are estimates, as are socio-economic class profiles. 

These will vary from ESRI estimates whenever SPCI is of the opinion that ESRI estimates do not accurately 

capture the “ground-level” reality as measured by observations made in the target areas by trained observers. As 

is the case with much of the Southwest, the greater Phoenix area has a substantial “undocumented” or floating 

population of immigrants who make it their business to be as invisible as possible to governmental authorities. 

3. No inflation has been assumed, in order to be able to compare sales results, both over time and with previous 

market reports. 

4. The primary trade area for this project is assumed to be generally an area that as a core includes the City of 

Peoria, the City of Glendale and Sun City . 

st 

- The primary trade area boundary out to the east carries to approximately 51 Avenue. Beyond 

st 

51 Avenue to the I-17, south of the SR-101, capture should decay for two reasons—distance and 

st 

the quality of the demographics. The selection of 51 Avenue is arbitrary. Extending the 

boundary to I-17 does not chance the numbers a lot because much of this area of Phoenix is very 

low density and there are still extensive undeveloped properties as well as large residential lots 

zoned for equestrian or livestock. Moving east of I-17, residents start to fall under the influence of 



Desert Ridge and Paradise Valley Mall. While neither offer a great shopping experience in terms 

of intimate ambiance, Kierland Commons starts to be a much stronger presence. 

- SPCI has estimated the primary trade area population to be approximately 429,000 residents. 

- The quality of the trade area decays rather rapidly to the southeast, especially once past Glendale, 

in what is western Phoenix. Moving towards Metro Center, for example, the percentage of 

Hispanic families, and especially lower income and undocumented Hispanic families and 

households, rises rapidly, while incomes decline. SPCI has not given this area (the farther 

southeast) much weight in its assessment. 

5. This project will also have a secondary trade area. The secondary trade area consists of slightly more distant 

areas that can contribute customers to the project and whose residents generally live approximately 20 minutes, 

or more (but generally not more than an hour) distant from PSC, and also do not have a lot of serious shopping 

and dining alternatives. Components would include Surprise (to the west), Wickenburg (to the northwest), 

Norterra (to the northeast), Anthem (to the north) and El Mirage (to the southwest). This secondary trade area, 

for the purposes of this study, has an estimated population of another 160,500 residents. 

- Norterra has been included as part of the secondary trade area due to its relatively better quality 

demographic situation + the fact that the current retail centers do not offer much of a shopping or 

dining experience, as measured against leading projects. The situation of The Shops at Norterra 

will be dealt with in depth elsewhere, but SPCI found this project to be a serious disappointment, 

when measured against its potential. The site is a great on, on a major intersection, and the 

market, while somewhat limited, is strong in its spending power. However, the project appears to 

be trying hard to be all things to all people, with the result that the project does not have a strong 

focus and can not deliver a great emotional experience. Somewhere along the development time 

line, the decision was made to “include” some aspects from the neighboring Happy Valley Town 

Center...but instead of strengthening the Shops at Norterra project, the result was to weaken the 



project. Consequently, SPCI considers this area under served and has included it as part of the 

secondary trade area. Otherwise, areas east of I-17 are not included. 

- SPCI has not include a serious visitor population as a component for trade areas. While many 

“snowbirds” descend on the greater Phoenix area during the winter months, the ones with the 

most discretionary income tend to focus on Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. Any impact would be 

in addition to what has been estimated in this chapter. 

6. SPCI has not included a tertiary trade area----generally residents living more than one hour of travel time (60 

miles) distant. Wickenburg might potentially fall into this category, but SPCI has elected to place residents in 

the secondary trade area. The amount and variety of retail in Wickenburg is somewhat limited, especially in 

terms of interesting or quality shopping and dining experiences. 

7. Goodyear, Avondale, Tolleson and Litchfield Park along with Verrado have not been included in the secondary 

trade area despite either their relative proximity, of the lack of any interesting local retail opportunities (or 

both). It is currently a fact that residents from these areas come north and/or east to the Peoria/Arrowhead area 

for dining and shopping. However, SPCI expects new retail development to occur along the I-10 corridor. This 

new development is expected to have a strong town center/lifestyle dimension, and should siphon most if not all 

of these residents away from the PSC project. 


CHART I 


Chart I presents estimates of the available primary and secondary trade area populations. 

CHARTS II through III 

These charts present SPCI’s estimates for 2011 sales for shopper goods (GAFO) (Charts IIA-IID) and for 

convenience goods (Charts IIIA-IIID). The SPCI model is used as a framework. GAFO is general 

merchandise, apparel, furniture and other merchandise. 

Estimates for population, household size, household income, propensity to spend on retail goods, the shopper 

goods versus convenience goods ratio, and the potential capture rates for the proposed retail project are 

estimated based on observations of the market and assessment of ESRI data sets. 

o Socio-Demographic Profile: The populations of the trade areas are divided into different income 

categories, following common accepted break points (US Census Bureau divisions). 

o Estimated Percent of Population: This is the percentage of a particular socio-demographic segment out 

of the overall population in a given piece of the trade area, as opposed to the raw number of residents. 

o Estimated Population: Population figures for the trade areas are SPCI estimates. It should be noted that 

SPCI’s numbers diverge somewhat from official ESRI statistics 

o Household Size Factor: Population figures are SPCI estimates for the trade areas. Household size has 

been estimated very approximately for each social class in order to form a basis for household income. 



o Estimated Households: The estimated population for each socio-economic class has been divided by the 

household size factor to produce an estimated number of households. 

o Estimated Average Household Income: All income projections are SPCI estimates, working with ESRI 

estimates and US Census Bureau estimated. 

o Estimated Total Income: This represents an estimate of the pool of money available to the defined 

population as gross income. 

o Estimated Total Disposable Income: This represents the pool of available money after taxes. Total 

disposable income has been calculated at 60% of gross income for the top economic classes, rising to 90% 

for the lower classes. These are arbitrary generalizations by SPCI. 

o Estimated Percent of Retail Spending: This column of numbers represents the propensity to spend on all 

retail goods and services, both shopper goods (general merchandise, apparel, furniture) as well as 

convenience goods (grocery items, pharmaceutical products, restaurant eating and drinking). These are 

also arbitrary generalizations by SPCI. 

o Estimated Retail Expenditures for Shopper (GAFO) and Convenience Goods: These numbers are the 

result of multiplying the retail propensity to spend against the estimated available disposable income of 

the target population. Shopper goods include apparel, shoes, furniture, and other general merchandise. 

Convenience goods include groceries, pharmaceutical products, and eating and drinking expenditures. 

o Estimated Capture Percentage for Shopper or Convenience Goods: These numbers reflect SPCI’s 

estimate on the division of retail spending between the two major retail categories of shopper goods and 

convenience goods. Together they add up to 100%. These are arbitrary decisions by SPCI, based on 

experiences in similar areas. 



o Estimated Market Capture for Shopper Goods (or Convenience Goods): This column indicates the 

estimated pool of money being spent on shopper goods (GAFO)/convenience goods. These are arbitrary 

numbers by SPCI, based to a degree on an assessment of ESRI data. 

o Estimated Capture Percentage: 

� These estimates reflect SPCI’s evaluation of capture potential. 

� Capture generally declines as a direct relationship of time and distance from the target site. 

� The rate of decay depends also on the presence (or absence) of serious retail competitors (not just 

shopping centers). 

� The presence of absence of major geographical , topographical or manmade barriers is also taken 

into consideration. Major highways with limited access can be barriers as much as connectors. 

o Estimated Capture (for each socio-economic group): These estimates reflect the result of the previous 

calculations, and yield an annual sales estimate. 

o Sales Performance: The last two columns reflect the number of square feet (sf) a shopping center could 

sustain this year at the sales performance rates of 380 dollars and 680 dollars, respectively, per sf 

annually. These are entirely arbitrary numbers, but SPCI uses them as good benchmarks for 

performance. The lower figure of 380 represents more or less the “floor” for performance, below which a 

shopping center (depending on a number of variables) is likely to find itself in trouble financially. The 

680 benchmark, on the other hand, represents a relatively good result...not the best possible result, but a 

healthy result that should make the project reasonably competitive. At two or two-and-a-half times this 

level, a project becomes a national leader and one of a handful of really elite shopping centers in terms of 

sales performance. 


CHART IV 


This chart (two pages) examines the possible growth in estimated sales in the future (through 2022). All 

indicators are based on SPCI’s long experience with shopping center sales analysis. There are obviously a huge 

number of variables that can affect these numbers, including population growth that is faster or slower than 

expected, economic growth that is stronger or weaker than expected, and unusual inflation or deflation. Still, it 

is necessary, even on a very tentative level, necessary to test the recommendations of the “Options” Chapter 

(Chapter Six) against a model to see if a model can be constructed that could support the conclusions....or not. 

o The chart examines three different sales performance levels—380 dollars per sf per year (minimum), 500 

dollars per sf per year (modest), and 680 dollars per sf per year (healthy). 

o These figures represent different levels of sales efficiency as noted above. SPCI is a proponent of sales 

efficiency, since this drives rents more than gross sales. It is recognized that various promotion schemes 

of retailers (frequent sales, steep discounting) can affect these numbers and that a store might be selling a 

lot of merchandise but producing only marginal net operating income. Consequently, sales efficiency is 

not “everything” in assessing the retail marketplace. Furthermore, the industry is moving into a situation 

where many bricks and mortar stores serve as showrooms, but the actual sales are made on line via the 

Internet. This trend is going to decouple rents from sales....the value of a location may in fact be much more 

than sales data might indicate. 

o This chart shows a MODEST YEAR GROWTH SCENARIO, which assumes more gradual growth over 

the projected multi-year period, and a BETTER GROWTH SCENARIO, which assumes somewhat 

more accelerated growth over the projected multi-year period. 

o The extensions into the future are extremely speculative, given the difficulty of determining what direction the 

economy may take in the next ten years and the large number of variables that can impact growth. 


o The inflation factor was not included in order to be able to compare results.

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION 


The following data is based on information provided by ESRI, taking US Federal Census data as it becomes available. 

Without going into a long discussion of changing methods of collecting census data, its best to say that the Census 

Bureau switched from collecting data every ten years to collecting data, to varying degrees, quarterly, annually, every 

two years or every, depending on various factors, in particular the size of the population in a given statistical category. 

This new system, known as ACS, generates a lot more current data for any one locality, but this data is not collected at 

the same time, everywhere, so comparing two different localities at the same point in time becomes much more 

difficult. In addition, comparing the new ACS data with the old 2000 and 1990 (and earlier) Census data is also 

difficult. 

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS 

! The situation with respect to demographics for this project, resembles, for SPCI, a card game... which is 

to say, a great deal will depend on how the cards that are held, for this project, are played. There is some 

risk here, but SPCI believes that it can be managed if the right kind of project is developed. 

! The latest Federal Census data releases of information did not become available until May 31, 2011. The 

latest information did not deliver any especially new and radically different information on the 

marketplace, but did tend to confirm previous trends and provided a lot more detail. 

! If the project is designed well, is sufficiently different from its neighbors, filled with tenants that can 

provide synergy to the entire project and to their neighbors, and offers a strong dining component, then 

this project has a very good chance, in the opinion of SPCI, of achieving financial and strategic success 

(and these two are linked). 

Strategic Planning Concepts International 3 - 1 August, 2011


! However, it must be noted that this is a difficult trade area, in terms of customers, because the Peoria 

Sports Complex western parking lot sits more or less on a “demographic seam.” This means that the 

property is not centered in the exact “center” of a homogenous demographic area. While there is in fact 

plenty of “population” surrounding the property on all four sides, the residents who live in the 

neighborhoods and communities around the PSC are in fact quite different in a number of important 

ways. Instead of being a uniform “carpet” of customers, a better image might be a carpet composed of 

different individual carpets, each with different materials, thread counts and textures, made by different 

manufacturers, but stitched together into one piece. Depending on the direction taken, there are very 

differing demographic situations that radiate out, like the spokes of a wheel, from the property. 

! The population density in any particular quadrant that surrounds the property is no so great as to be able 

to, by itself, support any seriously competitive retail mass at this site, except for the very smallest of retail 

formats (See Chapter Six). Given the large amount of retail development that surrounds the property on 

the west, northwest, north and northeast, any new and additional retail will need enough critical mass to 

establish a strong visual presence in the marketplace and attract consumer attention. 

! SPCI’s baseline number for a project such as this is approximately 250,000 qualified residents... meaning 

residents who have enough spending power to be serious and regular customers of the stores and 

restaurants and for whom this project would represent the best possible and closest project. 

! This is also the threshold number for a regional fashion mall, and about half the number for a super 

regional fashion mall. The Arrowhead Towne Center super regional is nearby to the north of PSC, on 

the northern side of Bell Road. The fact that so far, it is one of the approximately 1,700 survivors of the 

2,500 super regional and regional projects that once existed in the USA (as of 2000), speaks for its 

success, and in turn, indicates that it is probably drawing at least that many customers. However, 

Arrowhead TC is not considered to be one of the top such projects in the USA, or even, for that matter, 

in the greater Phoenix area... and it certainly has not been a leader in innovation. Consequently, SPCI is 



not willing to base any recommendations for the potential customer support of a project at PSC on the 

situation at Arrowhead TC. The International Council of Shopping Centers estimates that as of 2011, 

there are 200 “solid” regional and super regional malls (out of the 1,700), otherwise known as fortress 

malls. Approximately 1,000 are expected to go out of business. That leaves some 500 whose fate remains 

to be determined. SPCI would place Arrowhead TC is that latter group. 

! To understand the market better, it is good to delve more deeply into this situation. 


CITY PROFILE (PEORIA) 


! The permanent resident population of Peoria was reported as being 108,364 in 2000. This obviously 

would not include any undocumented immigrants, who have developed the art of being invisible and 

uncountable in order not to be deported. This is less an issue for Peoria than for areas to the southeast 

(for example, around Desert Sky Mall and Metro Mall). 

! The permanent resident population at the most recent census date (prior to May of 2011, which actually 

reflects data from between 2005 and 2009) was estimated at 147,814 residents. 

- For general purposes, SPCI will estimate the population at 150,000, mainly because this is 

close enough (see below) and it is a nice, round number, easy to work with. 

- By itself, this number is not going to be enough to support a seriously competitive retail project 

at the PSC site... even if all of these people are “qualified” consumers, for this particular project, 

the number is approximately 100,000 people short of what is needed. Therefore, this means 

that Peoria by itself can not support this project... it is going to need to pull from the 

surrounding areas, in particular from Glendale, some nearby unincorporated parts of Maricopa 

County, Surprise and even parts of Phoenix. 

- The City of Glendale appears to be a good place to “hunt” for potential customers... parts of the 

City are in fact within close proximity to PSC. As of 2010, the City of Glendale was estimated 

to have a permanent resident population of 226,721 residents. 

- So together, both cities have approximately 375,000+ residents available. The project is not 

going to capture all of these residents, as some are never going to have enough income to be 



qualified customers and there is a lot of retail competition in the area. Still, this number, for 

SPCI, places the project at least into the realm of being feasible. 

rd 

- While Arrowhead Fountains Center, across 83 Avenue to the west, is pulling customers 

currently from places such as Avondale, Goodyear, Estrella and Verrado, SPCI is of the 

opinion tht potential future develop along the I-10 is likely to reduce this flow of customers who 

rd 

come “over” to the 83 Avenue/Bell Road intersection primarily for dining, and to a lesser 

degree, for shopping (there are already a good number of “big box” power centers scattered 

along the I-10). 

! The population growth rate from 2000-2010 was 3.08% annually, which is a decline from the 7.74% 

annual growth rate experienced from 1990-2000. 

- As the population base expands, it becomes more difficult to main the same rate of growth. A 

3% rate is still a healthy rate of growth, because over a ten year period, that translates to 30%. 

This was above the national average. 

! Between Jan. 2009 and October of 2010, the City of Peoria actually lost population... from 149,391 

residents in January of 2009 down to 148,502 residents twenty months later... not a serious loss, but still a 

loss of almost 900 residents. That was after hitting a “high” of 150,365 residents in October of 2009... so 

the “real loss” was actually closer to 1,863 residents! And just to make things more complicated, the City 

actually dipped down to 148,351 residents in April of 2010, and then 147,814 residents in July of 2010, so 

at one point , the City had actually lost some 2,551 residents. 

- So perhaps the City will not average 3% annual growth going forward, certainly from 2009 

through 2010, this was not the case. This would seem to indicate that the city is not on track to 

meet the projected population of 163,094 by 2015. 



! Currently, the city of Peoria is predominantly white, or Anglo, at an estimated 79.2%, with the Hispanic 

population estimated to be at 22.1%, the African American population estimated to be at 3.9%, and 

Asian population at 2.6%. 

- This is of some interest, but in looking forward, some trends analysts are projecting that by 

2050, the greatest single “group” will be “mixed,” a group that currently is seriously 

undercounted. 

- The City of Glendale, as of 2010, had at least 80,501 Hispanic residents, who formed 

approximately 35.5% of the total population... significantly more than the City of Peoria. This 

is in keeping with observable reality that as one moves away from the PSC and travels southeast 

towards I-17 and beyond, to Central Avenue, the percentage of Hispanic population grows 

rather dramatically. 

- It should be kept in mind that the Hispanic population is not a monolithic entity but is seriously 

fractured into different communities depending on nationality, state or region of origin within a 

particular country, number of generations in the USA, degree of English fluency, degree of 

Spanish fluency (not all “Hispanic” immigrants from Mexico, for example, necessarily speak or 

command the Spanish language), skin color, religion, cultural preferences (music, food) and 

other factors. 

- Regardless of the shifts in ethnic classification, SPCI is of the opinion that the Anglo culture 

will remain dominant regardless of the ethnic population of the trade area, and that the 

“shopping center,” an Anglo invention, will remain a major form of distribution for retail goods, 

services and entertainment. The rationale for this optimism is the fact that the shopping center, 

as a concept, continues to spread around the world and is very popular in almost every country 

with any appreciable economic and transportation infrastructure. 



! The most common age bracket for members of the population in Peoria is between 35 and 44, with 14.6% 

of the population; this age bracket, combined with that of 25-34 and 45-54, makes up 41.4% of the 

population of Peoria. 

- The population here “trends” relatively young (36.7 in 2010) and while not one of the 

“youngest” places in the USA, Peoria younger than many. This should, all things being equal 

(although they seldom are) mean that the population still has a good number of “consumption” 

years ahead of them (unlike the situation in nearby Sun City or Sun City West). 

- Glendale’s population is younger... the most populous group was 25-24, with 16.2% of the 

population. 

! Over half of the Peoria population (over age 15) is currently married (59.4%), with another 17.1% either 

widowed or divorced. 23.5% have never been married. 

- This is a relatively good statistic for retail developers... married households tend, on the whole, 

to be good consumers of retail goods and services. 

! The median income level per household is currently $70,060. Approximately 23.6% earn between $50k 

and $75k, with 20.7% earning between $100-125k and 18.6% earning at $75-100k. 

- This is a reasonably healthy profile, as approximately 39% of these families, depending on 

family size, generally still have enough disposal income after expenses, to afford to shop, dine 

and buy entertainment, at least to some degree. 



- For the 23%+ earning from 50-75k, the situation is more precarious, depending on their 

employment status and whether or not they have a mortgage, and if so, how much of a 

mortgage. Not all of the people in this group are necessarily “qualified customers.” 

! While 92.3% of the population over age 16 (and in the labor force) is employed, 7.7% is unemployed. As 

of the 2000 census, there was also a substantial number (35.3%) not in the labor force at all. Numbers for 

this group were unavailable in 2010 reports as of May 28, 2011. 

- SPCI’s experience leads it to estimate the real unemployment rate is perhaps somewhere around 

12-13%... high, but certainly less than in many areas of the USA. The unemployed generally do 

not make good consumers, neither do the under employed. This cuts away a share of the 

Peoria customer base. 

! 66.6% of the employed population is working in white collar jobs (compared to 61.6% in the U.S.), with 

17.5% in blue collar jobs and 15.9% in service jobs. 

- This is a relatively healthy statistic, as least in terms of consumers. As a general rule, white 

collar jobs require more and better education, and the resulting level of sophisticated generally 

results in customers who both appreciate and seek a greater range of retail experiences and for 

whom the experience of buying at a “big box” discounter can only go so far. 

! At this time, 6.3% are below the poverty level. 

- This is a relatively low statistic, but it is still approximately 12,000 residents in Peoria who are 

not serious candidates to be qualified customers for a retail project at PSC that is not super 

discount oriented. 



! 28.7% of the residents have completed high school but had no further education, while 26% have a 

college degree (Associate or BA or BS) and another 8.3% have a Master’s degree, or higher. 

- This is “pretty” good but certainly not tops. 

! Median home value in the Peoria market area is $143,409, which is actually slightly less than the median 

home value of the U.S. 

- This is not unexpected, if one drives around Peoria. There are a lot of older, small, single family 

homes on small lots. The better residential communities are all situated to the north, on the 

northern side of Bell Road, mostly outside Peoria, in Arrowhead Ranch, Arrowhead Lakes, 

Arrowhead Country Club, etc. 

! 72.9% of the housing units available are owner-occupied, with 16.1% renter-occupied and 11.1% vacant. 

- Normally, SPCI would “like” this statistic, but in the current recession, this number masks 

foreclosures, impending foreclosures or situations where the homeowner is “under water” with a 

mortgage larger than the current value of the home. Therefore, this number should be treated 

with some caution. 

- In neighboring Glendale, the situation is different... 87.4% of the housing was occupied as of 

2010... and 12.6% of that total was vacant. 


1-MILE RING AROUND PSC 


! This ring radiates out from the PSC one mile in every direction, so it includes areas that are not part of 

the City of Peoria. However, it gives a realistic “snapshot” of the people who live closest to the project, 

and under normal conditions, can be expected to be the most frequent visitors to it (because it is very 

convenient). Current population within this one mile radius is 8,245 (grown from 6,625 in 2000 and 

“only” 675 in 1990!). 

- This is not great density (significantly less than either the USA or Arizona average for 

metropolitan areas), but within one mile, there is a sports stadium, a lot of surface parking lots 

for shopping centers, several “big box” retailers, several large shopping centers, the I-101, 83 rd 

Avenue, Bell Road, several commercial office buildings, smaller streets and two canals...to 

some extent, it is surprising that there are even that many people living within one mile. 

- The annual growth rate from 1990 to 2000 was 25.66%! 

- For comparison, a one mile ring around I-17 and Bell Road, in 2010, had a population 

estimated at 13,714. 

rd 

- A one mile ring around 43 Avenue and Bell Road had a population of 15,112 in 2010. 

st 

- And a one mile ring around 51 Avenue and Bell Road, in 2010, had a population of 11,399. 

- For comparison, a one mile ring around Metro Center Mall, in 2010, encompassed 14,849 

residents. 

- Density is not destiny... the one mile ring around Kierland Commons, in 2010, was 6,173! 



! The most common age bracket is between ages 45 and 54, with 17.5% of the population. This is followed 

by ages 35-44 and 25-34, at 14.8 and 12.7%, respectively. 

- The population living closest to the project actually trends older than the population living in 

Peoria as a whole. This population segment are the “baby boomers,” definitely style setters and 

a major target for this project if it is to succeed. In ten years, SPCI does not expect most of 

them to look or act anything like their older cohorts in Sun City and Sun City West. 

- By contrast, a one mile ring in Sun City West, around the corner of Pine Tree Drive and Echo 

Mesa Drive, in 2010, showed the most common age bracket to be the 75-84 age group, with 

41.8% of the population! Another 16.1% of the population was over 85 years of age, so that 

the population of 75 years of age and older was an astounding 57.7% of the total residents! 

And...29.2% of the population was in the 65-74 age bracket, so that all together, within a one 

mile ring of the randomly selected site in Sun City West, 86.9% of the population was 65 years 

of age or older. 

! 53.7% of the population (over age 15) is married, with another 17% having been married previously 

(either divorced or widowed). 29.4% have never been married. 

! 27% of the population over 25 years of age has completed high school (or the GED) but nothing more, 

while 23.3% has spent some time in college without a degree, and another 30.5% has either an Associate 

or Bachelor’s Degree. Another 12% has either a Master’s, PhD, or Professional Degree. 

- This is somewhat better than Peoria as a whole... in general, as one moves north across Bell 

Road and further north, this statistic becomes better. 



! In 2000, 69.5% of those over 16 were employed, with 1.6% unemployed and 28.1% not in the labor force. 

By 2010, the unemployment rate was at 6.1%. 

- This is better than Peoria as a whole. 

! The median home value in this area is $297,449. 

- This is perhaps the biggest statistic that “jumps out”... this is essentially twice the median home 

value for the City of Peoria as a whole! 

- Before getting too excited, it might be noted that Wal-Mart considers its primary customers to be 

people whose homes have a value of $250,000 or less... perhaps a reason why there is a Walrd 

Mart north of Bell Road on 83 Avenue... and another one at Talavi Town Center on Bell 

Road to the east, and several more in this quadrant of the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. 

! 4.5% of households within a 1-mile radius of the site are below the poverty line. 

! 35.4% of households have an income between $100k and $150k. Next is $50-75k with 19.1% of the 

population, and 18.3% make $75-100k. 

! The median income level for households in this area is $90,250. 

! The population in this area is predominantly white, with 83.4%. Another 14.9% of the population is 

Hispanic, with 4.1% Asian and 3.6% African-American. 




! The current population within 3 miles of then PSC site is 108,454 residents. This is an increase from 

95,592 in 2000. 

- This is about as far as a really good neighborhood shopping center can draw, at best. 

Unfortunately, this format of shopping center enjoys no real strategic advantage. Consequently, 

a larger and more powerful format is needed for the property... and these formats will require 

more “power” (more qualified residents), so that a retail format at this site can not just be 

convenience-oriented, it must have a strong destination orientation in order to be able to pull 

“in” customers from other areas and to pull them past other shopping centers. 

- The relatively thin density within this ring will require a project to be able to “project” its “allure” 

out farther. Since three miles to the west goes deep into Sun City, and given the relative age of 

much of this population, the proposed project will need to pull customers from other zones. 

- Three miles to the north of the site to the north of the site puts the edge of the ring close to the 

edge of the urban zone to the north... not a lot is to be gained by extending the trade area out 

farther, in terms of numbers of residents. Consequently, the PSC project will need to look east 

and south for additional “bodies.” 

! The most common age bracket in this radius is also between 45 and 54, with 13.2% of the population. 

This is closely followed by the two age brackets below (25-34 and 35-44) and the two above (55-64 and 65- 

74), all between 11.1 and 11.8%. 

! 55.6% of the population over 15 years in age is married, currently, with 23.6% never having been married 

and another 20.9% either widowed or divorced. 



! In regards to education, 27.2% of the population has completed high school and nothing else, while 

another 28.7% has attended some college, with no degree. 22.8% has attained an Associate or Bachelor’s 

Degree, while 8.7% has a Master’s, PhD, or Professional degree. 

! In 2000, 52.9% of the over-16 population was employed, with 2.4% unemployed and 44.3% not in the 

labor force. The unemployment rate is currently (as of 2010) at 8.1%. 

- This statistic, while higher than for Peoria as a city, needs to be treated cautiously. 

! The median home value in this area is $234,410. 

- While including more homes to the north of Bell Road, this ring also includes more homes to 

the south, east and west, pulling down the average somewhat from the one mile ring result. 

! 6.6% of households within a 3 mile radius are below the poverty line. 

- As one moves east and especially southeast from the site, this number is going to rise. 

! The most common household income level is between $50k and $75k, with 22.2%. Next most common is 

$100k-150k, with 20% of households in that bracket, and 16.6% make $75-100k. The median income 

level for this area is $67,582. 

! Ethnically, the numbers are approximately the same for the 3-mile radius: 84.8% White, 14.1% Hispanic, 

3.3% Asian, and 3.1% African-American. 




! Total population within a 5-mile ring is currently 294,356, up from 259,859 in 2000. 

- To “pull” out to a distance of five miles, any new retail project at the PSC will need to be 

destination-oriented, because the project will be asking customers to drive “past” a lot of other 

retail projects in order to arrive at the PSC. 

! 12.9% of the population is between ages 45 and 54, still the most common age bracket. This is most 

closely followed by ages 35-44 at 12.5% and ages 25-34 at 12.1% of the population. 

! 54.1% of those 15 years or older are married, with another 20.9% previously married (now widowed, or 

divorced) , and 25% never married. 

! 28.3% of the population within 5 miles of the site has gone no further than high school, with 28.3% 

having completed some college (with no degree), and another 24.9% having possession of an Associate or 

Bachelor’s degree. There is also another 8.3% of the population who has a Master’s, PhD, or 

Professional degree. 

! In 2000, 56.1% of those over 16 were employed, with 2.3% unemployed, and 41.2% not in the labor force. 

As of 2010, the unemployment rate was 8%. 

- This is holding more or less steady with the data for the three mile ring, but higher than for the 

one mile ring. 

! The median home value within 5 miles is $220,558. 



- This is considerably more than for the City of Peoria, but less than for the one mile ring. 

! 7.5% of households are below the poverty line. 

! At this radius, the most common income level is lower, with 22.5% of the population making between 

$50k and $75k. Next most common is $100-150k, with 18%, and 16% earning an annual income of 

between $75k and $100k. 

! The median income level for this area is $65,607. 

! The only change in ethnicity percentages within 5 miles as compared to the 1 or 3 mile rings is that the 

Hispanic population is slightly more prevalent, with 17.3% instead of around 14%. Population is still very 

predominantly white (Anglo) at this point, with 82.3%, and the African-American and Asian populations 

are still relatively unimportant, around 3% (3.4 and 3.3%, respectively.) 

- A lot of this is due to the impact of Sun City and Sun City West. A one mile ring around the 

intersection of Pine Tree Drive and Echo Mesa Drive in Sun City West, for comparison, is 

97.5% white. 


TO THE NORTH: 

W. DEER VALLEY ROAD: 1-MILE RADIUS 


! Total population of this area is 14,212. 83.7% of this number are white (very similar to the 83.4% within 

the 1-mile ring around PSC), while 12.2% in the area are Hispanic (as opposed to 14.1% around PSC). 

There is also a slightly larger Asian population here, at 6.2%, as compared to the 4% around PSC. 

! Household income in this area is centered around a higher number, with 36.3% of the area’s population 

making between $100k and $150k. This is not incredibly different from the 35.4% of households that 

make this amount within a 1-mile radius of the proposed site, with the exception of that area having 

approximately 4,000 fewer people to draw comparisons from. However, a total of 70% of the households 

near Deer Valley accumulate above $75,000 each year, which is a much higher statistic than that of the 1mile 

ring around the site. 

! The median household income is $105,207, with the average at $117,897 per year. 

! 47% of this population is between ages 25 and 54, with another 33.4% between ages 0 and 19. The 

median age is 34.6. 

ANTHEM: 1-MILE RADIUS 

! This area is approximately 20 miles north of PSC. The population within a mile of Anthem’s city center is 

2,118, with a 7.5% Hispanic population. 



! This area is a bit further away, but at present the only large shopping center in this city is an outlet mall, 

so a new project at PSC could draw them towards Peoria if it is different and exciting enough, with plenty 

to offer. 

! Household incomes are largely between $75k and $100k, with 27.1% of households making this amount. 

This is slightly lower than the areas near Deer Valley Road, but somewhat higher than the areas to the 

southeast of the site in Peoria. There are also 23% making between $100k and $150k, and another 20% 

making $50-75k per year. 

! The median household income is $80,616, with an average of $90,186. 

! The median age in this area is 39.7. 19.4% of the population is between 45-54, with another 17.1% 

between ages 35-44. 

NORTERRA: 1-MILE RADIUS 

! This area is about 12 miles northeast of the site, with a population of 7,183 within a 1-mile radius. The 

population is mostly white (80%), with a 10% Hispanic population. 

! The largest income bracket for households in this area is $50-75k per year, with 22.7% of the population. 

Another 18.5% of households make $75-100k per year, and 17.9% make $100-150k. 

! The median income for households is $68,339, with the average at $83,017. 

! 20.5% of the population is 45-54, with a slightly older trend with 16.3% between ages 55 and 64. The 



WICKENBURG TOWN: 


! This town, located 40 miles northwest of the site, has a population of 6,363. The Hispanic population 

makes up 13.4%, which is higher than the other northern areas closer in. 

! The largest income bracket is $35-50k, with 18.6% of households, and another 17.9% make %50-75k. 

! The median household income is $39,486. The average is $51,277. 

! The age trend here is much higher, with 16.2% between ages 55 and 64, and 13.3% between 65 and 74. 

There is another 13% between ages 45 and 54. 


TO THE EAST: 

BELL ROAD/43RD AVENUE: 1-MILE RADIUS 


! The population in this area is 16,250. 85.2% of this number is white, with a 15.2% Hispanic population. 

Both these numbers are slightly greater than the percentages of both the white and Hispanic populations 

around PSC, but not significantly. 

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! The typical household income around 43 Avenue and Bell tends to make a lower amount than in Deer 

Valley or around PSC, with 28.1% of households making between $50k and $75k. The next most 

common household income is between $75k and $100k, with 20.9%. These numbers reflect a much more 

modest income level to the east of the site than those of the areas immediately surrounding PSC and to 

the north. 

! The median household income is $69,545, and the average household income is $78,185. 

! For this population, there is a slightly higher percentage of people ages 55-64 than in Deer Valley or 

around PSC, with a lower percentage of children and teenagers, both of which are reflected in the slightly 

higher median age of 36.7. A large percentage living in this area (57.5%) are between 25 and 64. 

BELL ROAD/51ST AVENUE: 1-MILE RADIUS 

! Population within 1 mile of this point is an estimated 12,868. Of this number, 82.6% are white, while a 

slightly larger number of 16.1% are Hispanic. This area is ever-so-slightly more Hispanic than the 

previous site, 1 mile to the east. 



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! Income levels look very similar to those surrounding 43 Avenue, that is to say, lower than those around 

PSC or Deer Valley. The highest percentage is still within the $50-75k range (28.8%), with the next- 

highest between $75k and $100k at 21.5%, but the percentage of households within the $100-150k level is 

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a few percent higher than that of 43 Avenue, at 19.9% instead of 17.8%. 

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! Because of these differences, the median and average income levels are higher than around 43 Avenue, 

at $72,321 and $81,756, respectively. 

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! Age levels are much the same as at 43 Avenue, with 58.2% between the ages of 25 and 64. The median 

age is slightly higher than the previous site, at 37.2 years. 

BELL ROAD/INTERSTATE 17: 1-MILE RADIUS 

! The population as of 2010 was estimated at 14,754, of which 79.2% is white, with the Hispanic population 

jumping up to 19.5%. This is definitely a significant jump from the 14% surrounding PSC, and is 

projected to keep growing, reaching 22.9% by 2015. 

! The most common household income level is still hovering between $50-75k in this area, with 26.6%, but 

with the $75-100k bracket only with 19% and with the $35-50k becoming much more prevalent at 17.8%, 

the overall income levels are much more modest in this area to the farther east. 

! The median household income is $62,318, with the average at $71,872. This is a $10k difference from just 

st 

2 miles west, at Bell and 51 Avenue. 


TO THE SOUTH: 


! Age levels trend towards the younger end of the 25-64 spectrum, with 16% between 25 and 34 years, but 

still with 56% of the population between ages 25 and 64. The median age is lower, at 34.1. 

RD 

10537 N. 83 AVENUE: 1-MILE RADIUS 

! The population to the south of PSC is 16,836. This contains a 64.7% white population, a slightly larger 

(5.7%) population of African-Americans, and a very large (41%) Hispanic population. This is in 

comparison to the 14% Hispanic population surrounding PSC. 

! 26.1% of the households within this population make $50-75k per year, with 17.5% making between $75- 

100k, and 15.4% making between $35-50k. 

! The median household income level is $60,545, and the average is $68,970. This is the lowest of all the 

compared areas. 

! 16.9% of the population is between 25 and 34, with a total of 44.3% of the population between 25 and 54. 

There are also more children in this area than most others (including the site at PSC) besides in Deer 

Valley, with 33.6% of the population between ages 0 and 19 (and 9.4% of that between 0 and 4). The 



TO THE WEST: 


PINE TREE DRIVE/ECHO MESA DRIVE: 1-MILE RADIUS 

! This is the unincorporated area of Sun City West, with a population of 7,219. The vast, vast majority of 

this population is white (97.5%), with a tiny 1.7% Hispanic population and less than 1% of any other 

ethnicity. 

! Over 45% of the population makes between $35-75k per year, which is a slightly lower amount than any 

of the other comparison sites, with a much lower median of $53,152, and an average of $65,801. 

! The most common age in this development is between age 75 and 84 (41.8%), with another 29.2% 

between ages 65-74, and 16.1% 85 or over. The median age is 76.9. 

SURPRISE CITY: 

! This city is about 7 miles further out beyond Sun City. The population of this city is 93,738, with an 

18.5% Hispanic population. 

! Most households in this area make between $50-75k per year, with 25% of the population falling in this 

category. Another 17.8% make $75k-100k per year, and 15.4% are in the $35-50k range. 

! The median household income is $61,091, with an average of $71,671. 



! This is another slightly older area, though not quite as old as Sun City. The largest group of the 

population is between ages 65 and 74 (16.4%), with another 11.6 between 75 and 84. There are also 

11.3% between ages 55-64, and 11.5% ages 35-44. 

CITY PROFILE (GLENDALE) 

! The total population of Glendale is estimated at 240,531 (as of 2010), with a 67.7% white population and 

an approximate 35% Hispanic population. The population growth is estimated at .77% per year, which is 

not as fast a rate as that of Peoria, but still slightly above the national average rate. 

! The most common age in Glendale is between 25-34, with 16.2% of the population. Another 13.6% are 

between 35-44, and another 13.3 beyond that at 45-54, but the trend is towards the younger side. 

! The median age is 32.1. 

! Most households currently make between $50-75k per year (23.5%), while 16.4% make between $100- 

150k and 15.9 make $75-100k. The median household income is $61,696, while the average is $72,663. 

Per capita income is estimated at $24,938. 


REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS

SITE: PEORIA SPORTS COMPLEX 


Location Surface parking lot on the western side of the Peoria Sports Complex Stadium, Peoria, 

Arizona. 

The property is bounded by the stadium and West Stadium Way on the east, North 83rd 

Avenue on the west, West Mariners Way on the south and Stadium Way on the north. 

The property is approximately one half mile south of the intersection of North 83rd 

Avenue and Bell Road. 

The property is approximately 300 yards east of State Route 101 (SR-101). 

To the south and southeast of the Peoria Sports Complex (PSC) is Skunk Creek and the 

Arizona Canal (which ends to the west at New River). 

Description The property currently is being used as surface parking for the Peoria Sports Complex. 

The PSC is the spring training center for both the San Diego Padres and the Seattle 

Mariners, who each play a schedule of up to 30 spring training games (combined, both 

teams) at the facility every year. The facility hosts various special events during the rest 

of the year, but much of the time, the property sits unused. 

Size Approximately 18 acres 

The property has an irregular shape, perhaps best described as something of an amoebalike 

shape. In any case, the property is not a classic square or rectangle. 


Ownership City of Peoria 




Visibility The visibility is relatively good, as there is a fair amount of frontage along North 83rd 

Avenue. The land around the property is flat, and there are no major high-rise 

buildings in the vicinity to block view corridors. Nor are there any large, tall trees that 

screen the property from the view of passing motorists. 

The size and mass of the stadium serve to attract the attention of anyone passing within 

a few hundred yards of the site. Visibility at night, when the stadium lights are turned 

on, is actually quite good, as the light poles can be seen from a farther distance away, and 

are visible from State Route 101. 

Obviously the property does not sit at the corner of a major intersection in the market, 

therefore the question really is, “Is the visibility sufficient for the proposed retail usage?” 

SPCI is inclined to answer “yes.” While not on a major intersection or interchange, the 

property does adjoin a relatively important road, North 83rd Avenue, which is six lanes 

wide in front of the property. 

The property is within 300 yards of State Route 101, so depending on the height of any 

buildings or a signage pylon, it may be possible to gain additional visibility from nearby 

State Route 101. 

West Mariners Way and Stadium Way are too small, and too short, to provide any 

significant visibility and the site is approximately 300 yards south of West Paradise Lane. 

West Paradise Lane “ends” in Arrowhead Fountains Center on the western side of 

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North 83rd Avenue. Its eastern terminus is to the east at 75 Avenue. 



Frontage The frontage situation is relatively good. 

The site has approximately 500 yards of frontage along North 83rd Avenue. This gives 

the property some good visibility and provides for the option of multiple ingress and 

egress points for the property. This is a positive situation. 

There is some limited frontage along Stadium Way on the northern side of the 

property—approximately 140 yards. This will not contribute much to visibility but could 

accommodate ingress and egress points. 

There is also approximately 500 yards of frontage along West Mariner’s Way on the 

south side of the property. This is not of great value for visibility, given that this street 

does not travel any great distance (dead ends at the stadium), but this situation is of 

value for its ability to offer additional ingress and egress points. 



Proximity to Market This is perhaps the most “flexible” of the qualities that describe this property. Who is 

the customer? There are several different sub markets surrounding this property. 

Generally, to the north, across Bell Road and extending north across the State Route 

101, residents are Anglo, married, living in single family, two-level, homes on medium to 

large-sized lots in large master-planned communities, in their 40s and 50s, working and 

with extra disposable incomes once their basic expenses have been paid for. So for SPCI, 

the primary target market is to the north. By and large, this is a market that is more 

interested in fast fashion (Forever 21, H&M, Gap, Zara) than in international luxury 

brands. 

Generally, to the west, in Sun City and Sun City West, residents are Anglo, married, 

living in more modest, usually single level homes, on smaller lots, in older, masterplanned 

communities. These residents are generally in their 60s and 70s and 80s, they 

are not working, they are retired and they are living on fixed incomes and therefore have 

less disposable income. They are more careful about their retail expenditures. This is a 

market for certain restaurant and entertainment concepts, assuming that they are 

moderately priced, but this is not much of a fashion market, not even for fast fashion. 

Farther west, in the Surprise area, beyond the Sun Cities, the population becomes more 

active in terms of working or seeking work, but Surprise is a mix of different groups, but 

certainly with a strong working class, blue collar flavor. 



Proximity to Market To the south, towards “old” Peoria and “old” Glendale, the population trends somewhat 

younger, and is still heavily Anglo, although somewhat less than to the north or in Sun 

City. This is largely an area of one-and two-level single family homes, although home 

values tend to be approximately half of what they are to the north of the PSC property. 

The blue collar, working class component is much stronger in this sector. There are 

more older homes and early suburban residential tracts, and there is a lot less masterplanned 

development. Beyond the southern edge of the City of Peoria, the population 

density drops rather dramatically. 

To the southeast, crossing through Glendale and into Phoenix, and increasingly more so 

the more to the southeast the market is extended, is an increasingly Hispanic area that 

becomes very heavily Hispanic in the direction of I-17. This population includes a lot of 

indocumentados, or undocumented immigrants, so accurate population estimates are 

extremely difficult. Family sizes tend to be larger, and income levels lower. However, 

due to different spending priorities and a willingness to tolerate more cramped living 

arrangements, disposable income levels tend to be surprising. Metro Center Mall, for 

example, has essentially become a Hispanic shopping center in all but name. 

Mixed in with the Hispanic elements to the southeast are students at various universities, 

including Thunderbird School of Management and the western campus of Arizona State 

University. These campuses attract young, largely non-working, singles from a very wide 

variety of diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds. While their incomes may be limited, 

they tend to have enough free time to be consumers, and have a lot of high energy which 

is invested in eating and drinking and pursuit of entertainment. Unlike the situation in 

downtown Tempe with respect to the main ASU campus, there are not a lot of nearby 

places students to seek out for their recreational pursuits. 



Proximity to Market To the east of the property , crossing through parts of Glendale and into Phoenix, the 

population is more middle aged, more Anglo, living in a mixture of generally older single 

family homes, along with rental apartments. The population density is generally almost 

twice that of the one mile ring around the PSC site. There are fewer master planned 

st 

residential communities, and those that do exist, are smaller. Along streets such as 51 , 

th rd 

47 and 43 Avenues, there are still undeveloped lots, older ranches and some semi- 

rural areas. The population displays a wide diversity of incomes and jobs, so that 

generalizations are very difficult, but on the whole, this particular sub market is not as 

affluent as the Arrowhead sub market. 



Proximity to Retailers One positive aspect about this site is that the area around the site has already established 

this “zone” as a serious and well-known shopping and dining destination. Nearby are 

one super regional fashion mall, five different power centers (counting Sam’s Club and 

Wal-Mart as a power center), three neighborhood shopping centers and assorted freestanding 

stores and restaurants. 

* Across West Paradise Lane to the north, free-standing Red Robin restaurant. 

* Across North 83rd Avenue, Arrowhead Fountains Center, with more than a 

dozen different restaurants (Blue Moon Saloon, Buca di Beppo, Cheesecake 

Factory, Chipotle, Corner Bakery, Famous Dave’s BBQ, Elephant Bar and Grill, 

Firebirds, Fox and Hound Smokehouse, Hooters, Lis Doon Varna Irish Pub, PF 

Chang’s, Texas Roadhouse, Satara, Tilted Kilt). 

* Across North 83rd Avenue and west of Arrowhead Fountains Center Drive, 

Harkins 18 cinema multiplex. 

* 600 yards to the north, Chick Fil A, on the eastern side of North 83rd Avenue. 

* 700 yards to the north, North Valley Power Center, southeastern corner of North 

83rd Avenue and Bell Road. Anchors include Target and JCPenney Home store. 

In and Out Burger is on the corner of the intersection. This shopping center also 

offers an Applebees, Denny’s, Olive Garden and Red Lobster for customers who 

wish to dine (all four are popular with the Sun City crowd). 



Proximity to Retailers * 900 yards to the north, Arrowhead Marketplace (power center) on the 

northeastern corner of Bell Road and North 83rd Avenue. Best Buy is the major 

anchor. Office Max, Party City are other tenants. Del Taco, Kyoto Bowl, Pacific 

Hibachi are the dining options—a relatively strong international flavor. 

* 1,500 yards north, on the eastern side of North 83rd Avenue, a free-standing 

Costco. 

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* 1 mile west, Cracker Barrel restaurant, eastern side of North 84 Avenue. 

* 1.2 miles north, and slightly east, Arrowhead Towne Center (Super Regional 

Fashion Mall), northern side of Bell Road. ATC has seven anchors: AMC 14 

cinemas, Dillard’s. Dick’s, Forever 21 (former Mervyn’s), JCPenney, Macy’s, 

Sears. Restaurants include Chevy’s, Johnny Rockets and a food court. 

* 1.2 miles north and due east, Arrowhead Crossing (power center) on the south 

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side of Bell Road, southwestern corner with North 75 Avenue. Major anchor is 

Nordstrom Rack, others include DSW, Home Goods, Old Navy, Hobby Lobby. 

Pier One Imports, Men’s Wearhouse. Restaurants include Baskin Robbins, 

Chili’s, Five and Diner, McDonald’s, On the Border, Peter Piper Pizza, Sweet 

Tomatoes. 

* 1.3 miles north, on the eastern side of North 83rd Avenue, Sam’s Club. 

* 1.4 miles north, on the eastern side of North 83rd Avenue, Wal-Mart 

SuperCenter. Dining options include McDonald’s, Starbuck’s, Wendy’s. 



Proximity to Retailers * 1.6 miles north and east, Arrowhead Palms (neighborhood center), southeastern 

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corner of Bell Road and North 75 Avenue. Also known as Glendale Palms 

Center. Greek wrap, Jamba Juice, Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill, Panda Express. 

Availability Yes. 

* 1.7 miles north and east, Arrowhead Festival (power center), northeastern corner 

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of Bell Road and North 75 Avenue. Anchors are Border Books and Music 

(winding down) and Sports Authority. Restaurants include Ajo Al’s Mexican 

Café, Genghis Buffet Mimi’s Café, Souper Salads, Starbuck’s and Zen Buffet. 

Just east of Arrowhead Festival is a Petsmart and a Carl’s Jr. 

Potentially, the parking lot on the “other” side (eastern side) of the stadium might also 

be available for development. 



Access Access to the project is reasonably good and is possible by motor vehicle from three 

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directions—from the north and from the south, using North 83 Avenue and from the 

east using West Paradise Lane. Pedestrian access is possible from the west for those 

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customers wishing to cross North 83 Avenue. 

Secondary access is possible from the east and west using Bell Road. 

Secondary access from the north and south is possible by using State Route 101. 

Motorists coming south on State Route 101 can exit at Bell Road, turn left under the 

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freeway onto Bell Road and then turn right at North 83 Avenue. Motorists coming 

north can use the Thunderbird Avenue off ramp, turn right on Thunderbird and then 

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left onto North 83 Avenue and proceed north. Or, alternately, they can use the Bell 

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Road exit, turn right onto Bell Road, and then right onto North 83 Avenue. 



Access from the North Access from the north is quite good. This is important because many primary customers 

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live to the north. Customers can come south on 83 Avenue, which has nine lanes at the 

intersection with Bell Road, but narrows to six in from the property. Due to a lightly 

landscaped median, they must turn left at either West Stadium Way or at West Mariners 

Way. Since the current engineering is designed to handle crowds coming to spring 

baseball games, this system works reasonably well. However, greater density of 

development in the area and on the site can lead to more traffic along North 83 rd 

Avenue, and a third entrance point might be needed. A traffic study is recommended. 

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For customers coming south on North 75 Avenue, they could always turn right onto 

West Paradise Lane and come across this street, which does not carry much traffic. 

This route avoids some of the Bell Road traffic. 

Customers returning to the north can exit from the site onto any one of three 

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surrounding roads and proceed north on North 83 Avenue. Or for those who live, for 

example, in Arrowhead Lakes, they could proceed east on West Paradise Lane, turn left 

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onto North75 Avenue (left turn arrow, but no dedicated left turn lane, however, road 

dead ends here anyway) and travel north. 



Access from the South Likewise, access from the south is very good. Motorists can come north on North on 83 rd 

Avenue and need only to turn right onto the property once they pass West Mariners 

Way. 

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Another route is to use North 75 Avenue, if customers live more to the southeast. In 

this case, they can travel north and turn left onto West Paradise Lane and come west. 

Returning to the south is only slightly more difficult, since they must execute a left turn 

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from either West Stadium Way or West Mariners Way onto North 83 Avenue. Or they 

could travel around the stadium and up to West Paradise Lane and then turn left onto 

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West Paradise Lane and then left onto North 83 Avenue. 

th 

Or if they wanted to use North 75 Avenue, they can take West Paradise Lane to the 

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east and turn right onto North 75 Avenue and proceed south. 



Access from the East Direct access from the east is limited, as West Paradise Lane does not extend very far to 

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the east (only to North 75 Avenue). The best route to use is Bell Road, and then to 

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turn left onto North 83 Avenue. There is a left turn arrow and two dedicated left turn 

lanes each with approximately 100 yards of take up lane. Bell Road extends for many 

miles across the entire Valley, all the way to Scottsdale Road in Scottsdale, where it 

undergoes a change of name and continues as Frank Lloyd Wright Road. 

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Returning to the east is easier, as customers can take North 83 Avenue north and then 

turn right at Bell Road. Or they can take the West Paradise Road east, turn left on 

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North 75 Avenue and turn right at Bell Road. 

Customers coming from the southeast can use West Thunderbird Road to either North 

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75 Avenue or North 83 Avenue, depending on their personal preference. Returning 

back to the southeast requires them to simply reverse their directions and take either 

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North 83 or North 75 Avenues south, and then turn east. 

Access from the West There is no immediate direct access from the west other than West Paradise Road, West 

Stadium Way and West Mariners Way....none of which travel more than a few hundred 

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yards to the west of North 83 Avenue. The presence of State Route 101to the west 

forms a major barrier to east-west circulation and forces motor vehicle traffic onto major 

roads. 

The best access from the west is Bell Road, which extends for a considerable distance 

through Sun City, Sun City West and Surprise. To the south, West Thunderbird Road is 

not quite as useful because Thunderbird dead ends in Sun City and does not continue 

farther west. 



Infrastructure Improvements The pending construction of a new freeway interchange between Thunderbird and Bell 

Roads will have a major positive impact on the project, regardless of where the final off 

ramp is installed. Currently both Bell Road and Thunderbird are subject, at times, to 

traffic backup and congestion. 

Demographics Sufficient. 

This situation is handled more completely in the demographics chapter, but 

provisionally, there are approximately 300,000 people living more or less within five 

miles of the project, of whom somewhat more than 250,000 could be qualified as having 

the potential to be customers. This is not a huge number, but the horizontal nature of 

growth and relative low density of growth in the area translates into a modest number. 

SPCI expects a lot of infill developer and more dense growth in the future. 



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Trade Area The trade area extends in an irregular manner along the major roads, North 83 Avenue, 

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North 75 Avenue and Bell Road. The limits are most clearly defined to the northeast, 

where Thunderbird Park and a line of mountains effectively create a topographical 

barrier. To the north, the trade area basically drops away north of Westwing Parkway, 

there is not much population going north to SR-303. 

The trade area to the west is porous, but beyond SR-303, there is not much population. 

There are some power centers and neighborhood shopping centers to the west, but 

nothing that is overly interesting and exciting in terms of customer attention spans. 

The trade area to the south is not hard and fixed, but lies somewhere between Peoria 

Avenue and Olive Avenue in the opinion of SPCI. The Park West project offers 

entertainment and dining competition and has a relatively interesting tenant mix pf 

stores, potentially limiting the pulling power of the PSC property in that direction. 

st 

To the east, the trade area easily extends as far as North 51 Avenue, approximately 4.5 

rd 

miles east of the Bell Road and North 83 Avenue intersection. Beyond that, the area 

extending more or less all the way to I-17 (another three miles) could be considered to 

be “in play” and depending on the tenant mix, design and emotional appeal of the 

project at PSC, these residents might in fact be able to contribute some sales to the 

project, as the zone in which they live has relatively less retail than other sections of Bell 

Road, Greenway or Thunderbird, until reaching I-17. Even then, the retail along I-17 is 

not that formidable and is largely, with the exception perhaps of the AMC Deer Valley 

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30 plex at SR-101 and I-17. Perhaps North 43 Avenue is a good break point. 

Coincidentally, it is about where the five mile ring crosses. The demographic situation is 

different than in the Arrowhead area, in general, a different kind of customer lives here. 



Other Having the PSC as a neighbor, on the eastern edge of the proposed project, is of benefit 

in the sense that the PSC is a well-known regional landmark. The PSC “establishes” the 

destination. However, the PSC itself is not what SPCI would describe as a people 

“pump” capable of pulling a few million customer visits annually to the property. 

Consequently, its value to the proposed project on the land where the western parking 

lot is now located, is limited. 

Skunk Creek and the canal form somewhat of a dead zone to the immediate south and 

southeast of the project. This is not fatal because there are enough bridges over these 

water features, but they do lower the overall density of the immediate trade area. 

Analysis This site can work as a retail center or a mixed-use project with a significant retail component. 

Ideally, SPCI would prefer a somewhat larger piece of land (would provide more flexibility for 

the design team), and a more regularly shaped piece of property (a nice rectangle, for example) 

with somewhat better visibility, but this project has enough qualities that a retail project should 

be able to succeed here, given the correct format, correct tenant mix and a good, consumer 

friendly, pedestrian-oriented, design. The suggested format for retail is an open air town 

center, with strong “lifestyle” elements in order to clearly differentiate this project from all the 

nearby power centers, as well as to differentiate it from the enclosed super regional fashion 

mall. 


RETAIL ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION 


! At first glance, there is a huge amount of retail competition and retail space located in the immediate vicinity of 

the proposed site at the PSC. This situation would seemingly argue against any further retail development. 

! However, upon closer inspection, the situation changes quite dramatically, at least in the opinion of SPCI. If the 

situation is viewed from the perspective of “what kinds of retail experiences are offered” rather than just “how 

many square feet of retail space are available?” then the retail situation looks very different in deed. 

! SPCI is of the opinion that the level of retail in this area can be taken to a higher level and that the market is 

mature enough for an evolution in the kind of retail that is offered. 

rd 

! Currently, the retail landscape along, and around, Bell Road and North 83 Avenue is dominated by isolated 

restaurants on out parcels, fast food franchisees, big box retailers, convenience stores...all organized into a few 

basic formats of shopping centers....largely power centers along with small neighborhood shopping centers and 

some community centers. There is one regional fashion mall, and one entertainment center. This is not much 

variety. 

! To some extent, the retail offering has been commoditized in much of the greater Phoenix area—the focus is on 

quickly and easily providing basic convenience goods and services. This is great for convenience goods 

(groceries, pharmacy products, basic eating and drinking), however, for better quality shopper goods and better 

quality dining and entertainment, none of the existing projects really provide the kind of experience necessary to 

draw in customers. 

! Overall, within the trade area, there has been little effort made to extend the value equation for the customer 

and provide a greater range of shopping and dining experiences. The existing retail offerings generally fail 



emotionally to connect with the customers on a positive basis and there is therefore leakage out of the area to 

environments that deliver a more experience oriented visit. 

! Somewhat surprisingly, most of the innovations introduced into the industry over the last two decades by the 

advent of lifestyle centers and town centers, nationally, or even in Southern California, are totally missing here in 

the northwestern valley of the Phoenix area. 

! Consequently, there is a definite opportunity here for a carefully designed and well executed project with a carefully 

selected and recruited tenant mix. This must not be a “fill the space” project or it will fail to carve out any kind of 

advantage in a market that has a lot of retail space. 

! So what “value(s) should a potential project be offering to the consumer? The four “big” choices are price, 

convenience, entertainment and quality. 

- The focus of the project should be on the “value” of entertainment, not on the “value” of price, or the 

“value” of convenience. 

• There are plenty of other shopping centers around the project site that offer low 

prices or great convenience or some combination of both. 

• This is a multi-edged concept, because it embraces much more than just an 

entertainment venue such as a cinema. 

• It includes restaurants that have either an entertaining environment and decor, an 

entertainment menu, an entertaining presentation....something beyond just food and 

drink. 


1 


1 

• It includes retailers that know how to visually merchandise themselves. This 

concept includes the overall project design—there is something to actually “look 

at”....not just long walls of concrete stretching off to infinity, or glass and steel 

curtain walls stretching to the sky. 

• The landscaping, the hardscape, the illumination, the signage....all the components 

of the project....even the parking garages....provide something to see, feel, 

experience, enjoy. Together, this is “entertainment.” 

• Therefore, entertainment is the “big” value. This does not mean that the proposed 

project should be an entertainment center, or as was popular in the 1990s, an “urban 

entertainment center.” Rather, the project needs to have a very high entertainment 

“value”—without actually being classified as “just” another entertainment center. 

• Every single store and restaurant must have some kind of entertainment value in order 

to qualify for inclusion in the project and must be able to add distinctiveness and synergy 

to the project, or otherwise they should not be in the project. 

- The value of quality is not unimportant, but SPCI does not see that as the primary value for this 

project...but it definitely has a role to play and it must be offered carefully—as in quality of the 

project and its design and layout, and the way its tenant mix has been fitted together....not 

necessarily in the highest quality retailers as reflected by the leading international luxury brands, 

or the use of the most expensive materials, fixtures, textures and finishes. The PSC project must 

Zara has been known to change its window displays in New York City on a daily basis. This is perhaps excessive, but it gets the 

attention of the customers. 


2 


seek better quality than the surrounding retail projects....this ought to be easy to achieve, as the 

following survey aims to demonstrate. 

- The proposed project needs to be what none of the existing projects in the trade area are—an 

interesting, pedestrian friendly, customer-oriented friendly “place” for residents of the area to 

congregate, meet, greet, eat, relax, sit, shop, browse and be entertained. 

• Parking is important but the automobile and parking can not physically and visually 

dominate the project. This is a combination of master planning the project in such a 

way that parking does not dominate, plus clever and leading edge design that softens 

the impact of parking garages and turns them into part of the experience. 2 

- This objective should be easy to achieve, since the existing surrounding retail projects are older, 

relatively unfriendly, generally very sterile and hostile environments dominated by steel, glass, 

asphalt and concrete. The surrounding retail projects are focused largely on “grab and go” 

shopping—how fast and easily can a customer drive in, park close to the front door of the target 

store, run in, buy something (or grab something to eat) and run out and drive away, as fast as 

possible. The power centers are essentially industrial parks rearranged and made somewhat more 

appealing physically with some minimalistic architectural enhancements, some token landscaping 

and some signage (sometimes no signage), but “at the end of the day,” they remain boring 

accumulations of big, box-like structures with lots of large blank walls, long flat surfaces and a 

repetitive use of materials, finishes and textures. 

- Those retail projects in the vicinity....and generally just about every retail project in Peoria, 

Glendale, Surprise and the rest of the west valley except for Gateway City Center and Park 

See The Grove, in Los Angeles, and Americana at Brand, in Glendale, California. 



West...generally are focused on “grab and go” shopping. Since the customer is not really expected 

to remain on the premises very long, generally no (or very little) effort has been expended to 

create any kind of remotely appealing environment that might hold the customer’s attention for 

longer than 15-30 minutes, at a maximum. Entertaining the customer, or even emotionally 

appealing to the customer, was not a development objective. Even projects that are supposed to 

be more entertainment and pedestrian oriented, and there are only two in the immediate 

vicinity—Arrowhead Town Center and Arrowhead Fountains Center—come across (for SPCI) as 

being old, boring and very pedestrian unfriendly. This is the big opportunity for the PSC project. 


DEPARTMENT STORES 


Department stores were long the traditional anchors for larger shopping centers. However, with the demise of the 

majority of department stores in the USA and the merger and acquisition of the remaining survivors, department stores 

today are often not found in many projects. The trade area has eight department stores, four of which are located in 

the indoor, enclosed super regional fashion mall known as the Arrowhead Town Center (ATC). The others are 

discount or off-price oriented and generally are located in an open air power center. 

This sector of the metropolitan area is actually rather “thin” in conventional regional fashion malls or their larger 

cousin, the super regional fashion mall. Other than ATC, the closest operational project is Metro Center, at one time 

(1970) the largest center of its kind in North America. Metro Center is over 11 miles away, and for SPCI, outside the 

trade area for the PSC property. 

DICK’S 

Dick’s Sporting Goods is not a traditional department store....but increasingly Dick’s is taking over old 

department store locations and some of their new stores, are two levels and as large as a traditional 

department store, so although they are a specialty retailer, SPCI will discuss them here in this section 

because after all, at Arrowhead Towne Center, they are in a department store anchor position and 

looking very much, and acting very much, like a department store anchor. 

There is also a Dick’s at The Shops at Norterra, away to the northeast, at Happy Valley Road and I-17. 

In theory this is a lifestyle center, but the way Dick’s is positioned is more reminiscent of a power center 

“big box.” 


3 

DILLARD’S 


Dillard’s is the largest of the department store anchors at Arrowhead Towne Center. The company has 

struggled over the last decade, and in the opinion of SPCI, its future remains less than certain. Dillard’s 

has the largest store in this sector of the market at 212,026 sf, but it is not Nordstrom, and the difference 

with Macy’s has shrunk over the last twenty years, in the opinion of SPCI. Dillard’s is not delivering the 

kind of “sizzle” and excitement to the mall that it needs. 3 

FOREVER 21 (FORMER MERVYN’S) 

Forever 21 is an exciting “fast fashion” specialty retailer, competing with H&M and Zara, among others, 

in the fast fashion category. When the department store known as Mervyn’s finally went out of business, 

Forever 21 took over many of the old Mervyn’s locations, which is what happened at Arrowhead Towne 

Center. So while Forever 21 is not a department store, it is filling that role at ATC and therefore will be 

included on this list. Forever 21 has injected a substantially higher level of energy into the mall than was 

displayed by Mervyn’s, which had been declining for many years as the chain attempting to find an 

identity following its acquisition by Dayton Hudson in 1978. The rebranding as Mervyn’s California did 

not go well and in 2001 the store reverted to its original name. The situation worsened following its sale 

by Target in 2004 and in 2008, the chain went out of business. This was not much of a loss for ATC as 

Mervyn’s was not generating a lot of sales anyway. 

JCPENNEY 

JCPenney has been an anchor at Arrowhead Towne Center since it opened in 1993—the only survivor 

from the original anchors. At 160,173 sf, this is not one of the largest JCPenney stores but it is about 

Dillard’s moved into the Phoenix area in 1984 with its acquisition of Diamond’s and its twelve Arizona stores. 


4 


twice the size of most of the stores that JCPenney building today. The company has had a turbulent 

history since Arrowhead Towne Center first opened, and there was a period in the early 2000s when it 

was not clear whether or not JC Penney would be a survivor among the department stores. However, the 

company was able to engineer a turnaround, and after trying a larger store format, moved instead to 

compete more directly with Kohl’s by opening smaller stores in power centers and community centers and 

town centers. As an older JCP store, this unit is obviously not one of the “new concept” JCP stores. 

JCPenney is a solid performer, but it does not bring a lot of visual merchandising excitement or glamour 

to ATC. 

JCPENNEY HOME STORE 

KOHL’S 

JCPenney’s Home Store is located on the western side of the North Valley Power Center on the 

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southwestern corner of North 83 Avenue and Bell Road, in the same project with Target. JCPenney has 

had somewhat uneven success with its JCPenney Home stores. Given the layout and design of the power 

center and the isolated position of JCP, this store functions by itself. When shopping here, at JCP, it is 

not possible to even see the rest of the shopping center. 

This is the most vibrant of the department store chains and is geared to the working mother with a family 

4 

and children and who has relatively little time to spend shopping. In the immediate vicinity of the 

proposed project site, Kohl’s is located in the non-descript Desert Glen shopping center on the 

th 

northeastern corner of North 55 Avenue and Bell Road....a small power center...perhaps the most high- 

energy of the department stores in a decide low energy environment. Does it matter? Not 

really....customers can drive right up the front doors, there is more than enough parking, there is no need 

See Andrea Chang, “Kohl’s Bets Big on California,” Los Angeles Times, Sept. 23, 2009, A9. 



to hunt for a parking space....this store is functioning essentially as a free-standing store, but it just 

“happens” to be in a shopping center. 

Kohl’s tends to saturate markets, to make it easy and convenient for its customers, so there are a number 

of other Kohl’s in the surrounding areas. There is also a Kohl’s located to the south on West Northern 

Avenue, in the Peoria Crossings project next to SR-101, together with Target, but this store is some sixand-a-half 

miles away from the PSC site. 

Approximately eight miles to the west, on Bell Road, in Surprise, just west of Surprise Town Center, is 

also a Kohl’s. Also about eight miles away, to the northwest, is a Kohl’s at Lake Pleasant Towne Center 

on western Happy Valley Road, in a power center with Home Depot and Best Buy. Fans of Kohl’s do 

not need to drive far to find one in this region. 

MACY’S (FORMER ROBINSON’S MAY) 

While Kohl’s is getting out into the market, Macy’s remains “entrenched” in the classic fortress regional 

fashion mall (in this case, a super regional fashion mall). Macy’s has 200,000 sf. at Arrowhead Towne 

Center. This store was previously a Robinson’s May (a strange merger of the higher quality Robinson’s 

of Southern California with the lower quality May Co.). The store originally was Robinson’s, which took 

over the older Goldwater’s chain in Arizona. In that regard, Macy’s is an improvement as a tenant in the 

project over Robinson’s May (although it can be well argued that if Goldwater’s had continued on, there 

would have been a higher level of quality). 

Macy’s has made a series of erratic changes in strategy since absorbing many of its old rivals, and after 

trying to “nationalize” their product in their stores, has retreated back to its traditional and more regional 

approach, which is where Macy’s was in the 1980s. The company is spending a lot of money on 

advertising and promotions, but housekeeping, visual merchandising and service all remain areas for 


5 


improvement, so that this Macy’s, like most of the stores in the chain, does not deliver a lot of “power” to 

the mall. Macy’s, at least in theory, is supposed to be adding some glamour to the ATC....but the 

frequent sales and poor levels of in store service are working at cross purposes with the chain’s advertising 

campaigns. The closest “next” Macy’s is the one at Metro Center to the southwest, a project that has 

been spiraling downward for years. 

NORDSTROM RACK 

Nordstrom is not located in the northwestern valley, as such, but is represented by its outlet store of only 

37,500 sf., in the Arrowhead Crossing shopping center. Curiously, the store faces the parking lot from the 

east, rather than facing busy Bell Road, so that the store is not all that visible, since the foliage along Bell 

Road obscures the view corridors towards the store. There is another Nordstrom Rack at the far eastern 

end of Bell Road, in the Scottsdale Promenade project. Ideally, the PSC project could acquire a 

Nordstrom and emulate The Grove (Los Angeles), but this is a long shot and the project can go forward 

5 

without a Nordstrom. There is no store anywhere in the West Valley providing Nordstrom’s levels of 

customer service. 

So far, Nordstrom has not seen a need to go into ATC although pads have been available in the past. The chain can take many years to 

reach a decision. The company does like iconic locations. See Laura Kusisto, “Nordstrom Can’t Decide If Shoe Fits,” Wall Street 

Journal, Aug. 4, 2011. 


6 

7 

SEARS 


Where to start? This one time world leading retailer is now part of KMart....and the future is not clear 

6 

for Sears as it struggles to find its way in the world of retailing. The last years have not been kind to 

Sears, and it is struggling to hang on. Sears is occupying a fairly large space of 109,416 sf (the old 

7 

Montgomery Ward space, actually) at Arrowhead Towne Center. Sears certainly is the least interesting 

and least exciting retailer among the large department stores. Sears adds very little in retail “punch” to 

the project, and all together, the “big four” department stores here are a very uninspiring collection of 

retail history. 

In addition to the unit at ATC, there is another Sears store within the trade area (a Sears Essentials unit), 

located approximately five miles farther to the south, in a power center known as Pueblo Plaza, situated 

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on the western side of North 91 Avenue, just south of the intersection with West Peoria Avenue. Home 

Depot is the largest anchor in the project. The Sears used to be a Big KMart. The fact that one cotenant 

in this project is Dollar Tree is just about all that needs to be said about the quality of this project. 

Staples is in this center as well, so are Petsmart and Peter Piper Pizza. The Sears store, an “essentials” 

unit, is easily identified by the long blank wall that it turns toward the parking lots, in effect putting up a 

serious barrier that subconsciously sends the “keep out” (“Berlin Wall”) message. The store has other 

even more serious problems, including maintenance and upkeep. 

Miguel Bustillo and Karen Talley, “Sears Posts Loss as Sales Sag Further,” Wall Street Journal, Aug. 21, 2009, B1; Gary McWilliams, 

“Sears Profit Drops, Bringing Forecasts of a Restructuring, Wall Street Journal, July, 2008. 

Montgomery Ward at its peak had nine stores in Arizona. Burlington Coat Factory purchased three—including at Superstition Springs 

Center in Mesa, and at Paradise Valley Mall, in Phoenix. Sears bought two, including the one at Arcadia Crossing. Target bought two, 

at Fiesta Mall in Mesa, and one in Tucson. 


STEINMART 


Steinmart is located in Gateway Village on the northwestern corner of North 59 Avenue and Bell 

th 

Road....another power center. The situation for Steinmart here is somewhat similar to Kohl’s role at 

Desert Glen. Customers can easily park close to the main entrance of the store, quickly enter, quickly 

shop and quickly leave. There is more than enough parking. 


BIG BOX DISCOUNT RETAILERS 


Given the large number of power centers in the immediate vicinity of the PSC, it should not be surprising that there is a 

very large number of “big box” discounters located in the vicinity of the PSC. Indeed, this sector of the retail scene is 

very well represented. The proposed project does not have enough land to get into any kind of competition with the 

existing power centers. And even if there was enough land, it would be very difficult to stand out in a very crowded and 

cluttered field. 

What stands out are the large number of hypermarkets (KMart, Target, Wal-Mart) and furniture stores of various 

kinds. Taken as a whole, there are a large number of these stores in the area around PSC, compared to conventional 

specialty stores, which are largely concentrated in Arrowhead Town Center. Stores are on Bell Road if not identified 

with a particular larger center. 

ANNA’S LINENS (Talavi Towne Centre) 

ANNA’S LINENS (Peoria Crossings) 

ARIZONA LEATHER 

ASHLEY FURNITURE 

BABIES R US 

BARBEQUES GALORE 

BARNES AND NOBLE (Arrowhead Crossing) 

BARNES AND NOBLE (Surprise Marketplace) 

BED BATH AND BEYOND (Arrowhead Festival) 

BED BATH AND BEYOND (Surprise Marketplace) 

BED BATH AND BEYOND (Lake Pleasant Town Center) 

BED MART 

BEDS AMERICA 

BEST BUY (Arrowhead Marketplace) 



BEST BUY (Surprise Marketplace) 

BEST BUY (Lake Pleasant Town Center) 

BEVMO 

BIG 5 (Kohl’s Shopping Center, west of Desert Glen) 

BIG 5 (Puebla Plaza) 

TH 

BIG LOTS (North 67 & Cactus) 

BIG LOTS (Arrowhead Crossing) 

BIG LOTS (West Cholla) 

BIG LOTS (West Grand) 

BORDERS (recently closed) 

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COSTCO (North 83 Avenue) 

COST PLUS WORLD MARKET (Arrowhead Palms) 

CREATIVE LEATHER 

DESIGN SOURCE FURNITURE 

DOLLAR GENERAL (Pueblo Plaza) 

DREXEL HERITAGE 

DSW (Arrowhead Crossing) 

ETHAN ALLEN 

FAMOUS FOOTWEAR (Surprise Towne Center) 

FAMOUS FOOTWEAR (Peoria Crossings) 

GOLFSMITH (Arrowhead Marketplace) 

HOBBY LOBBY (Arrowhead Crossing) 

HOME DEPOT (Arrowhead Panorama) 

th 

HOME DEPOT (59 Avenue and Peoria) 

th 

HOME DEPOT (67 Avenue and Bell Road) 

HOME DEPOT (Pueblo Plaza) 

HOME DEPOT (Surprise Towne Center) 



HOME DEPOT (Lake Pleasant Town Center) 

HOME GOODS (Arrowhead Crossing) 

JO-ANN FABRICS AND CRAFTS (North Valley Power Center) 

K-MART (Bell Road) 

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K-MART (vacant, North 84 Avenue & Peoria) 

LAMPS R US (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

LANE BRYANT (Surprise Marketplace) 

LA-Z-BOY FURNITURE GALLERIES 

LINENS N THINGS (vacant, Surprise Towne Center) 

LOWE’S (Thunderbird Crossing) 

LOWE’S (Happy Valley Towne Center) 

LOWE’S (Surprise Marketplace) 

LOWE’S (North Lake Pleasant Road) 

MEGA FURNITURE (Arrowhead Marketplace) 

MICHAEL’S (Peoria Crossings) 

MICHAEL’S (Surprise Marketplace) 

MICHAEL’S (Talavi Towne Centre) 

MOR HOME FURNISHINGS (Talavi Towne Centre) 

OASIS BEDROOMS 

OFFICE MAX (Arrowhead Marketplace) 

OFFICE MAX (Surprise Towne Center) 

OLD NAVY (Arrowhead Crossing) 

PADDOCK POOLS, PATIOS AND SPAS (Arrowhead Marketplace) 

PARTY CITY (closed) 

PETCO (Arrowhead Promenade) 

PETCO (Peoria Crossings) 

PETSMART 


8 

Company began liquidating its 116 stores on Oct. 20, 2008. 


PETSMART (Pueblo Plaza) 

PETSMART (Surprise Towne Center) 

PIER ONE IMPORTS (Surprise Towne Center) 

RAZMATAZ OUTLET AND MORE 

ROSS DRESS FOR LESS (North Valley Power Center) 

ROSS DRESS FOR LESS (Peoria Crossings) 

ROSS DRESS FOR LESS (Glendale Town Center) 

ROSS DRESS FOR LESS (Surprise Marketplace) 

RUE 21 (Surprise Marketplace) 

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SAM’S CLUB (North 83 Avenue) 

SAM’S CLUB (Bell Road and I-17) 

SHOE PAVILION (Bell Road) 8 

SHOWCASE 

SLEEP AMERICA (Bell Road) 

SLEEP AMERICA (Surprise Towne Center) 

SLEEP AMERICA (Peoria Crossings) 

SPENCER’S APPLIANCES (Arrowhead Festival) 

SPORTS AUTHORITY (Arrowhead Festival) 

STAPLES (Arrowhead Promenade) 

STAPLES (Pueblo Plaza) 

STONE CREEK FURNITURE FACTORY 

TARGET (North Valley Power Center) 

TARGET (Peoria Crossings) 

TARGET (Glendale Town Center) 

TARGET (Surprise Marketplace) 



TARGET (Lake Pleasant Pavilion South) 

THOMASVILLE 

TOYS R US (Arrowhead Festival) 

ULTA (Surprise Marketplace) 

ULTA (Peoria Corssings) 

ULTIMATE ELECTRONICS (vacant, available) 

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WAL-MART (North 83 Avenue) 

WAL-MART (Talavi Towne Centre) 

WAL-MART (Happy Valley Towne Center) 

WAL-MART (Peoria Town Center) 

WAL-MART (Surprise Town Center) 

WAL-MART (vacant, Peoria Town Center) 

WAL-MART (Camino Lago Marketplace) 


SUPER MARKETS 


Actually, somewhat surprisingly, grocery stores are not all that well represented in the tenant mix immediately 

surrounding the PSC property. There are more grocery stores as one moves away from the PSC project. Most grocery 

stores tend to be oriented to “grab and go” shopping and are in “look alike” shopping centers notable largely by how 

indistinguishable they are from each other, regardless of the anchor tenant. Admitted, there is both a Costco and a 

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Sam’s Club to the immediate north of the PSC project, along North 83 Avenue where nearby residents, who are 

members of each chain, can buy their groceries. Many of the current grocery stores are old Alpha Beta stores. 

ALBERTSON’S 

BASHA’S 

Albertson’s is not all that strongly represented in this sector of the Phoenix market. There is a unit west 

of SR-101, on Bell Road, in the Albertson’s Peoria Plaza (also known as Albertson’s Plaza) project on the 

northeastern corner of the intersection. This is a large Albertson’s with a large pharmacy (Osco). 

Basha’s may be strong in the Phoenix market, but less so in this sector. There is one store to the 

northwest of the PSC property, in the Ventana Lakes Village Center, on the northeastern corner of Lake 

Pleasant and West Beardsley Road. 

FOOD CITY 

Food City is not especially well represented in this area, largely because Food City is a very discountoriented 

supermarket catering to a lower demographic than can be found in most of the trade area. Most 

Food City units have a pharmacy, a tortilleria and a check cashing kiosk. There is a Food City on the 

th 

northwestern corner of North 59 Avenue and West Peoria Avenue. 


FRESH AND EASY 


Fresh and Easy has not followed a particularly consistent and transparent real estate strategy as it has 

expanded, and for that reason, is not well presented in this sector of the marketplace, with just three 

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units....all somewhat peripheral....on the northeastern corner of North 91 Avenue and West Union Hills 

Drive, behind Walgreen’s; at Dysart and Greenway Road in El Mirage, and in the far northwest, at Lake 

Plesant Promenade on the northwestern corner of Jomax Road and North Lake Pleasant Road. There 

are almost forty units in the Phoenix metropolitan area. 

FRY’S MARKETPLACE 

Fry’s Marketplace, now part of Kroger, is very strong in the greater Phoenix area, and definitely very 

strong in the immediate vicinity of the PSC property. There is a unit to the east of the PSC property, on 

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Bell Road at North 67 Avenue. This was formerly a Smitty’s (Glendale Palms). There is another Fry’s 

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farther east, also on Bell Road, at North 43 Avenue. There is a unit to the north of the PSC property, 

th 

on North 67 Avenue, at the Happy Valley Road intersection. There is a unit to the northwest in Fry’s 

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Peoria Plaza on the southwestern corner of North 91 Avenue and West Union Hills Drive. There is a 

unit to the southeast of the PSC project on the southeastern corner of Thunderbird and North 59 th 

Avenue, and another one on the southeastern corner of Thunderbird and North 35th Avenue. Fry’s is 

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also on the southwestern corner of West Peoria Avenue and North 35 Avenue and at the southeastern 

th st 

corner of North 75 Avenue and Cactus Road. To the southwest, there is one at North 91 Avenue and 

Olive Avenue in Agua Fria Plaza. 


SAFEWAY 

SPROUTS 


Safeway is also strong in the greater Phoenix area, although less so in the immediate vicinity of the PSC 

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property. There is a unit to the south on 83 Avenue, at West Cactus Road and to the southwest on the 

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southeastern corner of Olive Avenue and North 107 Avenue (Peoria Marketplace). There is another 

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unit on the northeastern corner of North 43 Avenue and Bell Road, to the east of the PSC property. In 

general, the Safeway-anchored centers are smaller, traditional neighborhood shopping centers, often so 

visually indistinguishable from their surroundings as to be almost unnoticeable. 

There are three Sprouts units in the general area of the PSC site and another to the west in Surprise. To 

the east of the PSC project, there is a Sprouts in the small Talavi Town Center II, on Bell Road at North 

th rd 

57 Avenue (southeastern corner). The closest unit is to the south of the PSC, on North 83 Avenue, in 

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the Thunderbird Crossing (southwestern corner of 83 Avenue and Thunderbird Road) project, just east 

of Lowe’s home improvement superstore. SPCI would not consider either of these locations to be 

especially great locations in terms of maximizing sales. SPCI is satisfied with the surrounding residential 

demographics, but the kind of center and the co-tenants in these projects do very little to support 

Sprouts. Its difficult to think of Sprouts shoppers visiting Burger King or Popeye’s on the way out of the 

st 

natural, health and organic food oriented grocery store. There is a third unit to the southeast, at 51 and 

West Peoria Road. Then there is also a unit in Surprise, at West Point Parkway and Bell Road. 



TRADER JOE’S (FORMER SMART AND FINAL) 

Located on a pad in front of ATC, just north of Bell Road, Trader Joe’s is in the space that formerly was 

occupied by Smart and Final, between Bell Road and the ATC. The store is somewhat obscured by the 

position of nearby Ethan Allen, to the west, and the free-standing Taco Bell, situated to the south. 

Generally, Trader Joe’s opts for better visibility. The store faces one of its two parking lots, to the east. 

Since Trader Joe’s tends to be a destination type retailer, these shortcomings are not serious, but in 

general, Trader Joe’s has better locations. 

WAL-MART NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET 

There is one of these relatively new prototypes at North 75 Avenue and West Peoria Avenue (across 

th 

from Fry’s). This is a Wal-Mart Super-Center without all the general merchandise, focusing largely on 

groceries, so it is a much smaller “box” than the customary Wal-Mart. To some extent, this is a response 

to Fresh and Easy as well as a host of smaller, specialty-oriented grocery stores and direct competition 

with traditional grocery stores such as Safeway. 


SPECIALTY STORES 


Specialty stores are largely concentrated in ATC, although there is a scattering of some chains in other projects, such as 

AT&T, Claire’s, Crickett Wireless, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Dress Barn, Famous Footwear, Game Stop, GNC, 

Justice, Payless Shoe Source, Radio Shack, Sally Beauty Supply, Sprint, T-Mobil and Verizon. 

Given the income levels of Arrowhead Ranch and surrounding areas and the housing values, the quality and diversity of 

product is less than SPCI would expect. 

AERIE 

AEROPOSTALE 

ALDO 

ALTERED STATES 

AMERICAN EAGLE 

APPLE 

ARIZONA DIAMOND CENTER 

AT&T 

AZHARA 

BAKERS 

BATH AND BODY WORKS 

BEBE 

BUCKLE 

BUILD A BEAR 

CAPRI JEWELERS 

CATHY JEAN 

CHAMPS 

CHARLOTTE RUSSE 


CHRISTOPHER AND BANKS 

CLAIRE’S 

CLARKS 

COACH 

COLDWATER CREEK 

CRICKET WIRELESS 

DISNEY STORE 

DOWN EAST BASICS 

EXPRESS 

EYEMASTERS 

FACTORY EDGE 

FAMOUS FOOTWEAR 

FAST FIX JEWELRY SERVICE 

FOOT LOCKER 

FOSSIL 

G BY GUESS 

GAME DAZE 

GAME STOP 

GLASS CAGE 

GNC 

GOLD BUYERS AMERICA 

GORDON’S JEWELERS 

GYMBOREE 

HALLMARK 

HAT CLUB 

HEART AND SOUL 

HELZBERG DIAMONDS 



HOLLISTER AND COMPANY 

HOT RAGS 

HOT TOPIC 

ICING 

INDUSTRIAL RIDE SHOP 

JOURNEYS 

JUST SPORTS 

KAY JEWELERS 

KIDDIE CANTATAS 

KITCHEN GOURMET 

LANE BRYANT 

LEGO 

LENSCRAFTERS 

LIDS 

LIL HEAR AND SOUL 

LOFT 

MASTER CUTS 

MERLE NORMAN 

MIST OF AVALON SPA 

MODEL HOME CENTER 

MOTHERHOOD MATERNITY 

NEW YORK AND COMPANY 

NICK’S MENSWEAR 

NO FEAR 

OAKLEY 

PACSUN 

PARIS OPTIQUE 



PAYLESS SHOE SOURCE 

PERFUME GALLERY 

PICTURE PEOPLE 

PIERCING PAGODA 

PRECISION TIME 

PUPPIES N’ LOVE 

RADIO SHACK 

REGIS SALON 

SAMUEL’S JEWELERS 

SEE’S CANDIES 

SEPHORA (new) 

SERENITY RELAX 

SHIEKH 

SILVER EFX 

SKETCHERS 

SLEEP NUMBERS 

SOMA 

SPENCERS 

SPRINT 

STRIDE RITE 

SUNGLASS HUT 

SWAROVSKI 

TALK MOBILE 

THE BODY SHOP 

THE CHILDREN’S PLACE 

THE CLOTHING COMPANY 

THE LIMITED (new) 



THE WALKING COMPANY 

THINGS REMEMBERED 

THOMAS KINKADE 

TILLY’S 

TINKERBELL 

T-MOBIL 

TOM AND GUY 

TORRID 

TRADE SECRET 

TRAVEL OUTFITTERS 

VANS 

VICTORIA’S SECRET 

VITAMIN WORLD 

WEISFIELD JEWELERS 

WET SEAL 

WIGS AMOR 

WINDSOR 

XTREME RL TOYS 

YANKEE CANDLE 

ZALES 

ZUMIEZ 

ONE SMILE DENTISTRY 



RESTAURANTS 

OVERVIEW 


! There is a tremendous concentration of restaurants within, and around, the Peoria Entertainment District, 

rd 

especially on the western side of 83 Avenue, as well as along Bell Road. There are at least 125+ restaurant 

options located within reasonable proximity to the site....approximately 70+ of these are located within a mile or 

less of the site. 

! These restaurants, with one exception (on the western side of I-101) are all located within a triangle-shaped area 

that is bounded by the Skunk Creek on the south and east, by I-101 on the west, and the northern edge of Bell 

Road to the north. The exception is the Cracker Barrel, on the western side of I-101 (but surprisingly for a chain 

that generally selects sites with tremendous exposure and visibility, somewhat hidden). 

! Normally, most of the time, and certainly in theory, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to launch a new 

shopping center that planned to include many restaurants as part of its tenant mix, into such a competitive 

environment. 

! However, closer analysis indicates that despite the very high number of operators, there actually are some serious 

opportunities here. 

! The most noticeable fact for SPCI is that there actually is not all that much diversity among the existing restaurant 

concepts in the immediate trade area. 

! There are certainly far fewer restaurants, in terms of variety and dining experiences, than SPCI would typically 

expect for an area with the population that Peoria-Glendale has available. There are a lot of the same kind of 



restaurants so that despite the large number of operators, the selection in most categories is quite weak, or even 

non-existent, in the opinion of SPCI. 

- This poses the classic “chicken and egg” question—is the relative lack of restaurant diversity due 

to the fact that the trade area population does in fact not “want” more diversity? (No demand). 

Or does the lack of diversity reflect a lack of opportunity and choice—the existing retail projects 

are very uninspiring, unimaginative shopping centers that appear to have taken the “path of least 

resistance” in terms of leasing space? (No supply). SPCI is inclined, after months of study, to 

support the latter conclusion—developers and brokers have taken the path of least resistance in 

most cases and rather than spending time and effort to locate really interesting and strong tenants, 

have tended to simply go for the easiest and simplest solutions. This has led to incredible blandness 

in terms of dining options. 


OBSERVATIONS 


! HEAVY FOCUS ON THE RETIRED SENIOR CITIZEN: 

- A very large number of these restaurants—approximately 25%— are very focused on serving what 

might politely be termed the “Sun City crowd”—residents over the age of 55, with most of these 

being over the age of 65 (many over 75). Many of these restaurants aggressively pursue the 

members of this group of customers with age discounts, special menus and special promotions. 

These customers are seniors, retired or semi-retired, largely living to the west of the I-101 in the 

master planned retirement communities of Sun City and Sun City West. Many are living on fixed 

incomes, so watching their expenses is an important consideration when selecting a place to eat. 

- There are at least 18 restaurants in this group from SPCI’s perspective: Applebee’s, Black Angus, 

Chili’s, Coco’s, Corner Bakery Café, Cracker Barrel, Denny’s, Five and Diner, Fuddrucker’s, 

IHOP, Mimi’s Café, Old Country Buffet, Olive Garden, Outback Steak House, Red Lobster, Red 

Robin, Rubio’s and the Zen Buffet. Other restaurants also serve this group, just not quite to the 

same degree. 

- In general, they are serving very fixed, standardized menus that seldom change, offer few specials 

and are generally modestly priced. Buffet restaurants, or restaurants serving huge, over-sized 

portions (Mimi’s, Olive Garden) are very common. The food in general is not all that tasty, but it 

is filling. 

- There is an overwhelming prevalence of national brands—which provide solid, credit worthy 

tenants and solid leases for property owners. Unfortunately, these brands do not provide much 

dining diversity or thematic interest for their customers, because most of these brands are so 



prevalent nationally and regionally, that they are in fact “everywhere.” Being “everywhere” lends 

a certain “nowhere” ambiance to any one location. 

- Therefore, these restaurants cannot, and do not, lend any particular uniqueness, or specialness, to 

a retail project. 

- The vast majority of these restaurants sit “out” on out parcel pads in the parking field of a 

shopping center—either in the Arrowhead Fountains Center, or in one of the many power centers 

in the immediate area. As such, they tend to be surrounded by parking on three sides, or in the 

case of the Arrowhead Fountains Center restaurants, on all four sides. This results is a serious 

lack of synergy with their neighbors. There is absolutely no pedestrian experience, as each 

restaurant is too far away from its neighbor to create any kind of greater “experience” beyond the 

food inside the restaurant. The experience is all “inside” the restaurant...there is no external 

experience to be gained. 

! HEAVY FOCUS ON FAST FOOD: 

- Another large group of restaurants in this group of eighty largely serve the young male, 18-30 

crowd, although they also serve the young families with young children. In this sector are at least 

36 entrants—almost 40% of the dining options around the proposed site: Arby’s (2), A&W, Az 

You Go Yogurt, Baskin Robbins, Burger King, Carl’s Jr., Chick Fil A, Cinnabon, Chipotle, 

Coldstone Creamery, Del Taco, Diary Queen/Orange Julius, Dippin Dots, El Pollo Loco, Great 

Steak and Potato Company, Hibachi San, In and Out Burger, Greek Wrap, Jamba Juice, Jack in 

the Box, Johnny Rocket’s, Krispy Kreme, McDonald’s (3), Mrs. Field’s, My Big Fat Greek, Panda 

Express, Pizza Hut, Prime Pizza, Subway (3), Taco Bell and Wendy’s (2). 



- These restaurants are selling price and convenience, so they are not overly interested in the 

ambiance and environment of a project. 

- Again, most of these restaurants tenants are “everywhere” in the USA (even the world). 

Consequently, they also lend very little “special interest” or ambiance to a retail project. 

! These two groups, mentioned above, represent almost two thirds of the existing restaurant market around the 

target site (in terms of numbers of units). As such, they tend to lend a strong image of uniformity, and dullness, 

to the area. 

! LARGE CONCENTRATION OF MEDIOCRE SPORTS BARS: 

- The proximity of the Peoria Sports Complex has given rise to a number of restaurants with bars in 

the immediate vicinity—these are essentially concentrated on the western side of North 83 rd 

Avenue in Arrowhead Fountains Center. Depending on the definition, they are more, or less, 

sports bars. These include the following eight restaurants/bars: Blue Moon Saloon, Elephant Bar 

and Grill, Firebird’s Wood Fired Grill, Fox and Hounds Smokehouse and Tavern, Hooters, Lis 

Doon Varna Irish Pub (vacant), Third Place and the Tilted Kilt Pub and Eatery. 

- To the north of PSC is Rock Bottom, located on the northern side of Bell Road (next to Black 

Angus). 

- Somewhat farther to the east of Rock Bottom are three more restaurant bars—O’Sullivan’s in 

Costco Plaza (the former Price Club Plaza), TGIF in Talavi Town Center (with Wal-Mart) and 

th 

Tailgaters, in Glendale Village—all around the intersection of North 59 Avenue and Bell Road. 



- There is somewhat more thematic variety in this particular group, the presence of national brands 

is not quite as overwhelming. None of the existing sports bars serve especially great food, and 

their service is not the best, but they do offer some differences in interior decor and different 

experiences. The result is that this “collection” is relatively more interesting from a variety 

perspective. Certainly the energy levels at these restaurants is different from the fast casual 

restaurants serving the Sun City residents. Once again, the “spacing” for many of these 

restaurants, with large fields of parking separating each restaurant from its neighbors, destroys any 

real pedestrian experience. 

- Still, SPCI finds this group, collectively, to be relatively mediocre so that while there are many 

“sports bars,” none of them is a “category killer” here. It might be debated whether any of them is 

a true, “honest-to-goodness” sports bar. 

- To some extent, a decent “sports bar” is almost an oxymoron. For SPCI, the formula is “keep it 

simple....good beer and good television.” This is a difficult combination to find around the PSC. 

- Are the many sports bars in the area too many for this sector of the market? The answer is not so 

simple. Pricing, interior atmosphere, reputation as a sports “hangout,” number of big, flat screen 

HD televisions, quality of the television picture, quality of the audio sound systems, kind of beers 

on tap, the demographics of the crowd, the noise level, absence of music, the staff, the quality of 

service, the location.... all play a major role in the attractiveness of sports bars. Good food tends 

not to be a major factor. Food needs to be simple and basic, not pretentious, but what is offered 

needs to be reasonably well prepared (buffalo wings, burgers, french fries, hot dogs, nachos, onion 

rings, tacos, pizzas, sandwiches—finger foods). This combination is difficult to find around the 

PSC. 



rd 

- Hooters, across North 83 Avenue, is selling cleavage and hot pants, secondarily sports 

(maybe)...food is far down the list after alcohol. Like the Fox and Hounds, the food is marginal 

and seems to be simply microwaved. 

rd 

- The Fox and Hounds, also across North 83 Avenue, actually is somewhat more of a sports bar, 

since it offers a lot of big screen televisions with simultaneous feeds from multiple 

venues...although the quality of the audio feed is very poor, the acoustics are less than optimal 

and the quality of the television also leaves a lot to be desired (they do not appear to be using the 

latest and greatest available technology)—quality is more important than quantity of television 

screens. A sports bar? Yes. A good one? Not really, in the opinion of SPCI. 

- The Blue Moon Salon, behind Hooters, to the west, is a good bar, whether it qualifies as a good 

sports bar is another issue entirely. SPCI is inclined to say no. 

rd 

- The Tilted Kilt Pub and Eatery, also across North 83 Avenue, is a sort of Scottish-themed 

Hooters. The Tilted Kilt seriously promotes itself as a sports bar. It does have a fair number of 

big flat screen HD televisions, but in the opinion of SPCI still falls short of being a serious sports 

bar although admittedly the immediate competition is not overwhelming. 

- The Yard House is a great sports bar with an impressive array of beer selections, but there is a unit 

to the south at Westgate, approximately eight miles distant...on the periphery of the trade area for 

PSC although sports fans will drive some distance for a good sports bar. 

- SPCI is of the opinion that there ought to be a really authentic and serious sports bar in the 

proposed project next to the existing stadium, but it needs to have enough of a draw to do well 

even when no games are scheduled at the stadium. A good sports bar needs to offer a good 


9 


number of HD very large, flat screen televisions with very good audio feeds (as opposed to 

jukebox music or Muzak , or other piped in music). 

- In the opinion of SPCI, the beer selection should be relatively simple. The quality of the sports 

bar is not going to be determined by the sheer number of tap beers. Therefore, the more exotic 

foreign brews (higher alcohol content, often 10%, and higher prices as well, often around $10.00) 

generally are not good matches for an environment where people come to watch events that often 

last three hours or more. If possible, there should be some local beers—customers are generally 

coming in to watch local teams. In addition to the standard American lineup of Budweiser, Coors 

and Miller (not enough by themselves), other options might include pilsners, IPAs, lagers, stouts, 

Maibock, and similar less filling, more refreshing options—Anchor Steam, Bass, Blue Moon, Four 

Peaks, Pyramid, Rogue, Sam Adams, Sierra Nevada, Stella Artois—there are many microbrew 

options. The goal is not necessarily to offer dozens of options, but the selection should be strong. 

The appropriateness of doubles and triples and Belgian or German strong Ales, in the opinion of 

SPCI, is suspect. 

- Dave and Buster’s has been suggested as a sports bar for the project. They are not in the market, 

they are a large user, they are a high-energy place....and they have somewhat under performed in 

Southern California at The Block and The Spectrum, both of which are projects that have a 

considered amount of high-rise commercial office density around the retail centers. In addition to 

the evening crowd, D&Bs tends to draw a large crowd from the office worker population....the 

commercial office density might be an issue for them. 9 

Dave & Buster's changed ownership in 2010, when Wellspring Capital Management agreed to sell the chain to Oak Hill Capital 

Partners for $570 million deal. Wellspring had taken Dave & Buster's private in 2006 for about $257 million in cash, plus debt. It 

replaced the company's founders with new management, expanded the chain and in 2009, filed to take it public again. However, the 

public markets were not receptive to restaurant stocks in general. This led to the sale to Oak Hill. See John Kell, “Dave and Buster’s 


10 

11 

12 

Files for IPO,” July 18, 2011, Wall Street Journal. 


- Some of the better sports bars in the greater Phoenix area, in the opinion of SPCI, are as follows. 

It should be noted that none of them are especially close to the project site. A unit of Majerle’s 

might be an option for the PSC project. There are, obviously, quite a few sports bars (and semisports 

bars) at Westgate City Center, and among them The Yard House might be the best. They 

are approximately eight miles distant, to the south. Perhaps The Yard House would consider 

moving, depending on its lease. 

- CK’s Tavern and Grill (in Chandler) 

- Four Peaks Brewery (Tempe and Scottsdale) 

- Big Guy’s Sports Grill (4601 East Bell Road, Phoenix). 10 

- Majerle’s (Central Phoenix, Chandler, Goodyear) 11 

- Santisi Brothers Pizzeria, Sports Bar and Grill (2710 West Bell Road, 

12 

Phoenix) 

The track record is short, this bar opened only this year in 2011, but so far, seems to have been well received. 

st 

There used to be a unit on Bell Road and North 51 Avenue, but this closed. This was not an optimal location or the optimal project. 

Dan Majerle played 14 years in the NBA, primarily with the Phoenix Suns. He serves as an assistant coach with the team. He was a 

member of the 1988 Olympic team as well. 

Probably the last surviving successful tenant in what otherwise is a dying shopping center (former Albertson’s), northwestern corner of 

I-17 and Bell Road. Sam’s Club has a unit to the immediate north.. 



! SOME CONCENTRATION OF TEX-MEX, NOT MUCH NUEVO LATINO: 

- Among types of national cuisine, Tex-Mex (a popular Americanized version of Mexican food 

found especially in Texas) is well represented with at least seven different table service, non-fast 

food, restaurants: Abuelos Mexican Food Embassy, Ajo Al’s Mexican Café, Arriba, Caramba’s 

Fresh Mexican Food, Chevy’s (inside ATC), Macayo’s, On the Border and Popo’s Fiesta del Sol 

(formerly Garcia’s). SPCI has placed Chipotle and Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill in the fast food 

category although it is something of a hybrid—self service, but better quality food. Again, how 

many are enough? Too much? Not enough? 

- These existing restaurants around the PSC actually are some of the more interesting, popular and 

active restaurants in the immediate trade area of the proposed site. Popo’s, for example, is very 

popular. Mixteca, across from Home Depot on Bell Road, is out of business. There have been a 

variety of Mexican restaurants at this latter location over the years. 

- Among fast food, there is Taco Bell and Del Taco...borderline Tex-Mex, since both concepts came 

out of Barstow, California (along with a third concept, Naugles, which eventually was bought out by 

Del Taco). 

- Tex-Mex is basically an adaptation of Mexican, Spanish, Native Texan (Tejano) and European 

dishes, using the products of the region that are more available. Tex-Mex generally uses fewer 

cheeses such as panela, queso fresco, queso blanco, cojita, asadero, Oaxaca, quesadilla and crema 

Mexicana—hard to get in Texas. Instead, jack and cheddar cheeses (more commonly available) 

are used. Beef replaces goat and pork, as beef is abundantly available in Texas, so there are a lot of 

ground beef dishes, including in salads. In general, the northern states of Mexico use wheat for 

tortillas, the farther south into Mexico one goes, the more common corn tortillas become. 

Tex-Mex offers more items with chili con carne, chili con queso, chili gravy, fajitas, various dips, 



cheese tacos, chips and hot sauce... all Tex-Mex inventions. Cheese or ground beef enchiladas, 

burritos and chimichangas are usually covered in it. 

- A variation of Tex-Mex is California Tex-Mex or Baja-Mex...generally with a lot more seafood 

dishes, and margaritas (from Rosarito). Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill would be representative 

among the faster food entries. 

- A point worth making is that there are a lot of different Mexican cuisines (huge differences among 

Yucatan, Puebla, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, Baja California, for example) and so there is almost always 

“room” for another concept since the largest difference is in the preparation and execution of the 

food, not so much the ingredients, although there are differences. The bottom line is that its all in 

the “execution” and preparation, and less in the ingredients. Representative of new trends is 

Nuevo Latino...a lighter, healthier, Latino-influenced cuisine....Frida’s (at Americana at Brand) or 

Javier’s (The Spectrum, Irvine) would be examples. 

- In the opinion of SPCI, none of the existing restaurants are all that “great” and quite a few are very 

mediocre at best. Popo’s appears to some degree to be “coasting” on the reputation of the 

previous tenant (Garcia’s), which occupied the same premises for many years and was relatively 

well respected. 

! HEAVY FOCUS ON TEXAS BBQ: 

- There are actually only two BBQ restaurants....Famous Dave’s and Texas Roadhouse....both are 

rd 

located among the sports bar and pub restaurants on the western side of North 83 Avenue. 



- To a certain extent, the comments about the preparation and execution of Tex-Mex (and related 

Mexican cuisines) applies here as well....there are a lot of different sauces, different styles of 

preparation, different meats, different cuts of meat. 

- Nonetheless, SPCI would not recommend a BBQ for the PSC project....there are too many other 

options that would help the project . 

! LIMITED INTERNATIONAL FOOD: 

- SPCI did not see any Lebanese food, there was no Arab, no Persian, no Cuban, no Spanish, no 

French, no German and no Vietnamese food in the immediate vicinity. These are not necessarily 

required, but they can add variety to a project. 

- There are some smaller “mom and pop” Indian (Asian) restaurants located farther to the east 

along Bell Road and on various cross streets...often the quality is relatively good, but the decor and 

surroundings are often very marginal as many of these are in-line, storefront operations in older 

and partially vacant shopping centers. 

st 

- The same situation applies to Thai restaurants. (Erawan. On North 51 Avenue would be a good 

example). 

- There appears to be more variety of international dining along Glendale Avenue, to the south, than 

along Bell Road. 

- The “Irish” pub at Arrowhead Fountains Center has closed. 

! PLETHORA OF CHINESE BUFFET RESTAURANTS: 



- SPCI did not see much variety in Chinese food—other than the upscale PF Chang’s, the immediate 

trade area is dominated by Chinese buffets such as the new Genghis Buffet, the fairly new Zen 

Buffet and the Great Wall Buffet, among others. 

- There seem to be no restaurants specializing in just Pekinese food, or Cantonese food, or Szechwan 

food, for example, and other than PF Chang’s, none experimenting with modern blends. 

- The Chinese buffet category seems overloaded. 

- There would seem to be an opportunity for another, non-buffet, Chinese restaurant. 

! ITALIAN: OVERLOADED WITH PIZZA PLACES 

- The breath and depth of options in the Italian categories is also considerably less than expected by 

SPCI, given the number of restaurants in the trade area, and given the immense variety of Italian 

restaurants found in other markets. Tagliani’s easily rules the day as the best Italian restaurant in 

the vicinity, with two units in the immediate trade area. Otherwise, the offerings are limited. 

- Santo Tutti at Citadella Plaza is above average but not strong enough to pull from beyond the 

immediate neighborhood. 

- There is no California Pizza Kitchen in the area, no Macaroni Grill. The project does not 

necessarily need these brands, what is interesting is that these are concepts with a “twist.” 



- There is a Buca di Beppo in Arrowhead Fountains Center, Carrabba’s Italian Grill at Costco Plaza 

and Mike’s Rigatoni Bistro (one of the few “mom and pop” independents) at North Valley Power 

Center. 

- The pizza category of Italian food is very well stocked—NYPD Pizza, Old Chicago Pizza, Peter 

Piper Pizza, Prime Pizza, Ray’s Famous New York Style Pizza, etc.—all at the lower end of the 

price schedule. 

- Therefore, there would seem to be an opportunity for a modern Italian restaurant experimenting 

with new blends, or a more traditional one specializing in Lombard, Tuscan, Umbrian or some 

other regional specialties. 

! GREEK: STOREFRONT IN LINE AND LACKING ATMOSPHERE 

- As for Greek food, there is only Greek fast food available in the immediate trade area, there is no 

table service Greek restaurant. Part of the attraction ought to be the theme and the ambiance, in 

addition to the food. That is lacking. 

- Mike’s Rigatoni Bistro in the North Valley Power Center does offer some Greek food items on its 

menu, but this mom and pop operated restaurant is more of an Italian restaurant, not really a 

Greek restaurant. The owners retired. 

- Again, there is a lack of the full range of Greek food, and certainly nothing like the former 

Papadakis of San Pedro, California—a community landmark for decades until its recent closure. A 

visitor here could feel like he or she was almost in Greece. 


! JAPANESE: 

! FINE DINING: 


- There was not as much variety as SPCI expected in the Japanese category either—Koi Sushi, 

Pacific Hibachi and Sushi, Aho So Sushi, Tokyo Lobby Sushi, Sushi Grill...the sushi category is over 

represented. 

- There is more to Japanese food than sushi, but there are no other Japanese restaurants (Benihana 

for example) in the trade area (there are two Benihana units in the greater Phoenix metropolitan 

area). 

- This is another category where there is room for some creativity when searching for PSC tenants. 

- There is a lot of what might be called “conveyor belt” sushi places. 

- SPCI did not find much in the way of fine dining...the best in the area appears to be PF Chang's 

and the Skye Restaurant, both in Arrowhead Fountains Center. 

- Fleming’s is at Park West, to the south, west of SR-101, perhaps the best steakhouse in the area. 

Otherwise, steak houses in the vicinity (Black Angus, Outback) tend to be rather ordinary in every 

way, in the opinion of SPCI. 

- Customers seeking a nice place for a special occasion have few options and generally need to leave 

the area and drive to Kierland Commons or Scottsdale Quarter, or elsewhere, to find a better 

experience. 


! FISH RESTAURANTS: 


- Fish restaurants appear under represented. There are not a lot of fresh fish restaurants in the area, 

other than Japanese sushi, not for really good fish anyway...SPCI wouldn't count Red Lobster as a 

better quality dining experience. The area may not be ready for the Ocean Club (as at Kierland 

Commons) but neither is there a Kona Grill (Scottsdale Fashion Square) or anything similar. 

! As noted, but worth repeating, there is actually a lot more variety and there are a lot more interesting restaurant 

concepts located farther south, along Glendale Avenue in Glendale. 

! Looking at the list of restaurants, it would be very easy to simply conclude that the trade area consists mostly of 

young men, 16-25, and senior citizens over 65....not much seemingly is offered for other groups. There are very 

few options for the married couple, between 25 and 65, who are not retired, and who are looking for a romantic 

place to have dinner, or celebrate an anniversary or birthday or some other special occasion. Nor are there many 

places for young unmarried professionals to have a date night. The options, currently, are largely PF Chang’s and 

The Cheesecake Factory, and the best options are far outside the Peoria-Glendale area (in Scottsdale). 

! Some good news is that Arrowhead Towne Center (ATC) has seriously fallen behind the times in terms of 

competitiveness for dining. 

- The ATC food court is very old fashioned and outdated, because it has not evolved into a more 

state-of-the-art food terrace or food garden with attractive landscaping, illumination, hardscape 

and furniture. The ATC food court also does not offer something more than basic fast food in a 

very basic, no nonsense environment. When ATC was built, food courts were a new innovation for 

regional and super regional fashion malls and were considered to be less than crucial for the 

performance of the mall. 


13 


- The ATC does not pack the kind of restaurant power that a leading edge retail project would have 

today—there are only three restaurants, in an era where many leading regional fashion malls might 

have anywhere from a dozen to two dozen (or even more) restaurants. For example, South Coast 

Plaza in Costa Mesa promotes 49 choices, and the project does not even have a food court. One of 

the three restaurant spaces at ATC is currently out of business—The Paradise Bakery and Café 

(not surprising—the location was all but invisible even within the mall, let alone from outside the 

mall....they could be a candidate for relocation to the proposed project which could offer them a 

space that allows them to showcase themselves much better than was the situation at ATC). The 

remaining two (!) restaurants at ATC are not what SPCI would consider to be strong 

challengers—Chevy’s (very mediocre Mexican food) and Johnny Rockets (essentially a burger 

place). Recently MaceRich added Teavana, a bold move given the rest of the tenant mix. 

- To be fair, ATC was built (1993) in an era when food was just starting to become a more serious 

component of regional fashion malls. 

- However, Chandler Fashion Center, Scottsdale Fashion Square and Biltmore Fashion Park (all 

older projects than ATC) have all managed to considerably upgrade their restaurant offering. 

- Chandler Fashion Center for example, offers 33 restaurant options above and beyond the food 

13 

court vendors. 

Many of these are situated on pads on the perimeter of the property, facing West Chandler Blvd., although they are relatively more 

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closely spaced than is the situation at Arrowhead Fountains Center along North 83 Avenue. Abuelo’s, The Olive Garden and Tonic 

are actually on the northern side of West Chandler Blvd., a very wide six-lane road with a large median and no clearly defined 

pedestrian crosswalks that are convenient to use. Chandler has a “tail” that connects to the Harkins multiplex, where there is a 

concentration of restaurants. 


14 

15 


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- The Biltmore Fashion Park offers at least nine. This is a lot fewer than Chandler Fashion 

Center, but the choices generally are much more interesting despite the more limited number of 

options—Black Chili Mexican Grill, Capital Grille, Christopher’s and Crunch Lounge, Seasons 52, 

Stingray Sushi, True Food Kitchen, Zinburger Wine and Burger Bar. Only The Cheesecake 

Factory and California Pizza Kitchen are more common. 

- Scottsdale Fashion Square offers eight restaurants...not all that many, but a relatively good 

offering, certainly way better than ATC....Fred’s, Grand Lux Café, Johnny Rockets, Kona Grill, 

Maracella’s Italian Kitchen, Modern Steakhouse, Yard House and Z Tejas Grill. Fred’s, Marcella’s 

and Modern were added in the most recent expansion. 15 

- Its difficult for SPCI not to conclude that ATC has allowed many of the more interesting restaurant 

options to “escape” to the perimeter of the project. Of course, the layout and design of the project 

is not all that inviting to restaurants either. 

! Finally, a review of comments by visitors to the various restaurants in the area would seem to indicate that there is 

tremendous “pent up” demand for “something new”—in terms of restaurant concepts, in terms of menu choices, in 

terms of drinks and cocktails, in terms of service. The proposed project might do well to carefully consider the 

restaurant tenant mix and not overload it with national chains, as there seems to be a certain “weariness” among the 

There are more restaurants located across Saddleback Road to the south, in The Shops at Esplanade (McCormick and Schmick’s, 

Morton’s, etc.) 

The situation is somewhat more complex than stated here, since the Scottsdale Waterfront project adjoins Scottsdale Fashion Square 

on the eastern side, extending along Camelback Road to the intersection with Scottsdale Road. Restaurants here include Culinary 

Dropout, Olive and Ivy, PF Chang’s, Sauce, and Wildfish...a much more interesting collection of dining establishments than inside the 

mall itself. 



dining public for many of the old, established national chains...certainly a sentiment that is easy to understand given 

the large number of chain restaurants. 


RANGE OF RESTAURANT OPTIONS 


Looking for a bite to eat?....within close proximity to the PSC (approximately one and a half miles), the following 

numerous options exist. Not many of these can provide any distinct flavor to a new project. 

A&W (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Abuelo's Mexican Food Embassy 

Ajo Al's Mexican Café 

Arriba Mexican Grill 

Applebee's 

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Arby’s (Wal-Mart Center on 83 Avenue) 

Arrowhead Grill 

Az Yu Go Yogurt (North Valley Power Center) 

Baskin Robbins 

Black Angus Steakhouse 

Blue Moon Saloon 

Bourbon Street Grill (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Buca di Beppo 

Burger King 

Caramba Fresh Mexican Food 

Cheesecake Factory (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Chevy's Mexican Restaurant (inside Arrowhead Town Center) 

Chili's 

Cinnabon (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Chipolte 

Coldstone Creamery 

Corner Bakery Café (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 



Country Buffet 

Cracker Barrel 

Cucina Tagliani (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Cucina Tagliani (Costco Plaza) 

Del Taco 

Denny's 

Diary Queen/Orange Julius (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Dippin Dots Ice Cream 

Elephant Bar and Grill (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Famous Dave's BBQ (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Firebird's Wood Fired Grill 9Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Five and Diner 

Fox and Hounds Smokehouse and Tavern (sports bar) (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Fuddrucker's 

Ghengis Buffet (former Pie Zano's Pizza Kitchen, former Bill Johnson's. Lot of rotation here). 

Great Steak and Potato Company (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Greek Wraps/Gyros Falafel 

Hibachi-San (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Hooter's (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

In and Out 

IHOP 

Jack in the Box 

Jamba Juice 

Jason's Deli 

Johnny Rocket's (inside Arrowhead Town Center) 

Juju Berry 

Lis Doon Varna Irish Pub (vacant) (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 


Koi Sushi 

Krispy Kreme 

McDonald's 


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McDonald’s (Wal-Mart Center on North 83 Avenue) 

McDonald’s (Talavi Town Center) 

Mike's Rigatoni Bistro (North Valley Power Center) 

Mimi's Café 

Mrs. Field's (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

My Big Fat Greek (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

NYPD Pizza 

O’Sullivan’s 

Old Chicago Pizza 

Old Country Buffet 

Olive Garden 

On the Border Grill 

Pacific Hibachi and Sushi (former Carver's Steakhouse) 

Panda Express (Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Panda Express (endcap at Glendale Palms Center) 

Paradise Café and Bakery (vacant, inside Arrowhead Town Center but with exterior frontage) 

Peter Piper Pizza 

PF Chang's 

Pita Jungle 

Pizza Hut 

Polar Ice 

Popo’s Fiesta del Sol Mexican Restaurant 

Prime Pizza 

Red Lobster 



Red Robin 

Rock Bottom Restaurant and Brewery 

Rubio's Fresh Mexican Grill 

Satara Thai Cuisine and Boutique Wine Lounge 

Sbarro (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Skye Restaurant (live comics as entertainment, Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Souper Salads 

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Starbuck’s (Wal-Mart Center on 83 Avenue) 

Starbuck's (Arrowhead Town Center) 

Starbuck's (Arrowhead Festival pad) 

Sweet Tomatoes 

Subway (North Valley Power center) 

Subway (Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Sushi Grill 

Taco Bell 

Tagliani Italian Kitchen 

Teavana (Arrowhead Town Center) (new) 

Texas Road House BBQ (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Third Place Neighborhood Grill (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Tilted Kilt Pub and Eatery (sports bar) (Arrowhead Fountains Center) 

Wendy’s (west of former Costco Plaza) 

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Wendy’s (Wal-Mart Center on North 83 Avenue) 

Wetzel's Pretzel's (inside Arrowhead Town Center, food court) 

Zen Buffet 



Traveling another 1-1.5 miles east along Bell Road, there is another concentration of dining options, essentially grouped 

around the North 59th Avenue and Bell Road intersection (at one time, more of a gateway to the area than is currently 

the case). East of this grouping, there is another long stretch of Bell Road that has no restaurants, until the North 51st 

st 

Avenue intersection At North 51 , there are a few more dining options, but fewer than the previously mentioned 

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concentrations. The depth and breath of dining options at North 59 Avenue and Bell Road also is a level below the 

previous group, reflective of the fact that this location has faded in terms of popularity. There are small retail projects 

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along North 59 Avenue, to the north (Citadelle Plaza) and south (Greenway Promenade, Greenway Plaza) of Bell 

Road. 

Aho So Sushi and Steak 

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Applebee’s (59 and Peoria, Food City Center) 

Arby's 

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Arby’s (Food City Center, 59 Avenue & Peoria) 

Black Bear Diner 

Boomer's 

Boston Market 

Carrabba's Italian Grill 

Chicago Giro 

Cucina Tagliani (the original) 

Del Taco (Arrowhead Promenade) 

Denny’s (Glendale Town Center) 

El Pollo Loco 

Erawan (Thai) 

Famous Sam's (vacant Costco Plaza pad) 

Golden Dragon (Greenway Promenade) 

Great Wall Buffet 

Il Primo Pizza and Wings 


Kaneya Sushi 

Island Teriyaki 

Little Caesar’s Pizza 


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Lenny’s Burgers (Food City Center, 59 Avenue and Peoria) 

Lone Star Café (vacant Costco Plaza pad) 

Luna Pizza (Arrowhead Promenade) 

Macayo's Mexican Kitchen (formerly Woody’s) 

McDonald's 

Melting Pot Fondu Restaurant (Citadella Plaza) 

Next Coffee Company (Citadella Plaza) 

O'Sullivan's Sports Bar and Grill 

Old Chicago Pizza (Talavi Town Center II) 

Outback Steak House (Talavi Town Center II) 

Panda Express (Arrowhead Promenade) 

Pizza Hut (Talavi Towne Centre) 

Popo's Fiesta del Sol (former Garcia’s) 

Ray’s Famous New York Style Pizza 

Starbuck’s (across from Arrowhead Promenade) 

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Starbuck’s (59 and Thunderbird, Safeway Center) 

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Starbuck’s (43 and Peoria, Target Center) 

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Starbuck’s (50 and Cactus) 

Subway (Gateway Village) 

Subway (Arrowhead Promenade) 

Taco Bell (Talavi Towne Centre corner) 

Tailgater's Sports Bar and Grill 

TGIF (Talavi Town Centre) 

Three Pitts Again 



Tokyo Lobby Sushi (Talavi Towne Centre) 

Tutti Santi (Citadella Plaza) 

Wendy's 

Zendajas American Grill (Citadella Plaza) 


ENTERTAINMENT 


“Entertainment” can be a relative assessment, but certainly compared to many of the surrounding areas, the zone 

around the PSC offers a fairly good amount of entertainment. 

AMC ARROWHEAD 14 

This 14-screen multiplex is situated inside Arrowhead Town Center, but there has been little effort to integrate it 

into the rest of the mall or to surround it with synergistic dining options, and consequently, the AMC unit enjoys 

few advantages over the nearby Harkins, which not has more screens but is closer to more restaurants. 

Moreover, the AMC complex is on the northern side of ATC, and therefore invisible to traffic moving along Bell 

Road. Even within the mall, SPCI would not consider the AMC to be particular visible, or the signage indicating 

its location to be all that good. This particular cinema complex tends largely to attract teenagers whose parents 

have “dropped” them off at the mall to spend some time. That reputation, plus the physical location, tend to 

send most cinema patrons to either the Arrowhead Fountains Center Harkins 18-plex, or farther east to the 

AMC 30plex Cinemas at the southwestern corner of the intersection of I-17 and Bell Road. 

AMC DEER VALLEY 30 

The AMC 30 at Deer Valley Town Center is approximately nine miles away from PSC. This is the “power” 

cinema in the region. However, for much of the PSC trade area population, especially for those residents living 

in and around Arrowhead Ranch, it provides an opportunity for movie viewing. The shopping center is easily 

accessible from SR-101, or for customers coming south from Norterra, along I-17. Within the project, the AMC 

sits at the western end and is both easily visible and easily accessible. With 30 screens (more than twice what 

ATC offers), customers need much less advance planning to see a movie. Whatever their choice, it is likely 

playing on more than one screen, and so wait times are dramatically reduced. This is just as well, as there is not a 

lot to do or see in this shopping center, it is a power center anchored by a Target and not one that is designed to 



encourage any serious pedestrian strolling back and forth among the stores. There are a fair number (for this 

area) of fast food and faster food dining options around the cinemas but little serious or fine dining. 

AMC GATEWAY 20 

Gateway City Center has a large AMC multiplex located at the northern end of the project, at the opposite end 

from the sports arena. This is a 20-screen cinema, surrounded on three sides by surface parking. One of the 

ideas behind this project was that the cinemas would provide the “draw” when the sports arena and the stadium 

were not hosting events, but this has not quite worked out as planned. Residential density around the project is 

relatively low, there are not enough retail shops to pull customers in if no game is scheduled, and many residents 

can visit cinemas that are physically closer to where they live. To a certain extent, this was a “Build It and They 

Will Come” type of project....and it was built....but “they” didn’t come. 

ARIZONA BROADWAY THEATER 

Peoria is more or less the cultural center of the West Valley. The Arizona Broadway Theater (ABT) is located 

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on the southern side of West Paradise Lane, just east of the PSC, adjoining North 77 Avenue on the east. The 

ABT pulls from a very wide region and feeds customers to the surrounding restaurants. While many patrons are 

from Sun City and not necessarily fine dining customers, the ABT does pull a wider variety of subscribers in 

addition to its core. Unfortunately, the building is “adrift”...isolated and not connected physically or visually with 

anything else other than its own parking lots. This is in fact, a very “invisible” location. To some extent, live 

performance theater is a destination activity, but the physical location of this structure makes it difficult to create 

much synergy and means that any customers wishing to both dine and attend the theater must park and then 

repark—not a good scenario for maximizing attendance. The ABT is an under utilized asset. 



BARNES AND NOBLE AT ARROWHEAD CROSSING 

Bookstores are major entertainment venues, but for maximum impact, experience has shown that they do best 

when placed in compatible environments. It is difficult to see what the “environment” is here at Arrowhead 

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Crossing, a large power center on the south side of Bell Road, west of North 75 Avenue. This is a power center 

with a line up of big box stores on the southern perimeter, and a series of restaurants on pads spread along Bell 

Road. Admittedly Barnes and Noble does not have a lot of choice in terms of “other” projects along Bell Road, 

since except for ATC, they are all more or less copies of each other, at least in terms of format, layout and design. 

The Borders Books and Music, across Bell Road, at the Arrowhead Festival project, has closed recently, leaving 

the field to Barnes and Noble in this sector. Barnes and Noble would be an ideal tenant in the proposed PSC 

project, and perhaps when their current lease expires, they would be a candidate for relocation. They will do a lot 

better closer to cinemas and restaurants than discount “big boxes.” 

BUILD-A-BEAR AT ARROWHEAD TOWN CENTER 

CABELA’S 

This is an entertainment experience for a restricted demographic....young pre-teens and early teen girls and their 

mothers. It is very popular and very much an interactive shopping experience for the participants. There is a unit 

in ATC, on the first level, close to the interior mall entrance to Dick’s and next to Lego (good synergy) and across 

from The Clothing Company. The space itself is long and narrow, and in the opinion of SPCI, not a very good 

space, but given the requirements of Build-A-Bear, it probably works reasonably well although the storefront is 

very narrow. 

This sporting goods retailer could be placed under the “big box” category but because a visit to one of their stores 

is such an engaging experience, SPCI has placed them in this category of entertainment. Cabela’s has a huge 



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free-standing store located on the northeastern corner of Glendale Avenue and North 95 Avenue, just east of 

the interchange with SR-101 and just north of Westgate City Center. 

HARKINS 18 

This 18-screen multiplex is very visible from SR-101. However, it has a weird location within its project area 

(Arrowhead Fountains Center)—relatively “hidden” inside the project, difficult to see well from North 83 rd 

Avenue, and not effectively working as an anchor to much of anything else in the project. Harkins sits more or 

less alone by itself on the western side of Arrowhead Fountains Center, and is not well linked with the rest of the 

project, especially the many restaurants. Consequently, the cinema, surprisingly, has very poor visibility from 

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North 83 Avenue unless a customer is in the right spot and knows exactly where to “look.” In fact, the cinemas 

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are almost invisible from the avenue. There is no easy and direct connection to North 83 Avenue for either 

pedestrians or motor vehicles. Still, local residents “know” that the project is here, because there are few other 

alternatives. Despite the shortcomings, it is also easier to attend a film showing here than the AMC inside ATC. 

However, the AMC Deer Valley 30 (southwestern corner of SR-101 and I-17) offers more screens, more 

immediate parking close to the cinemas and a lot more fast food restaurants immediately adjacent to the 

cinemas. 

On a positive note, there are almost two dozen restaurants within somewhat easy walking distance of the cinemas 

(not so attractive during half the year when temperatures rise), in Arrowhead Fountains Center, as well as some 

smaller fast food options directly in front of the main entrance. There is a lot of potential here, if the 

surrounding area is properly redesigned to create a more intimate, more pedestrian friendly and visually 

attractive zone. 


HARKINS 14 


This is a new multiplex cinema, located in the new Park West project just west of SR-101, in southern Peoria. It 

serves as the major anchor for the project and is easily visible from different parts of the project. There are 

currently nine restaurants within a realistic walking distance, a better situation than anywhere else in the West 

Valley. 

PEORIA CENTER FOR THE PERFORMING ARTS 

Located just west of the Arizona Broadway Theater, also on West Paradise Lane, is the Peoria Center for the 

Performing Arts, which was completed relatively recently in 2007. The project is a joint venture between the City 

of Peoria and Theater Works. The latter had a 20 year lease agreement to serve as the anchor tenant for the 

facility and as the operational entity for the 20,000 square foot building. The Peoria Center for the Arts offers a 

280-seat main stage auditorium, a smaller 80 seat “black box” theater, classrooms, a lobby, dressing rooms for 

performers, backstage support areas and office space for Theater Works. Operationally, this project has not 

worked out as planned and the facility is sitting empty, looking for a new tenant. There have been discussions 

regarding its use as a sports or fitness training venue. Currently, the PCPA is essentially another “outpost”, 

relatively unconnected to anything else in the immediate vicinity. It is separated from the ABT and the PSC by 

asphalt parking lots. The reanimation of this property would help the entire corridor. 

For awhile, there was a Starbuck’s in the building, but the unit closed and remains vacant. There was too little 

traffic. Currently, the facility functions as a dead zone, isolating the ABT. Plans are in the works to redirect the 

facility as a sports oriented venue, which would be a synergistic use. The design of the structure does not allow a 

lot of re-use options. 



POLAR ICE 


SPCI considers the stadium to be an entertainment venue, since the anchor tenants are professional baseball 

clubs. The “big” season is spring training, during which each of the two MLB teams (San Diego Padres, Seattle 

Mariners) plays approximately 30 spring training games, about half of which are played at the PSC. The games 

can pull thousands of customers per game, and while the audience trends older, some number of fans patronize 

the surrounding restaurants. The teams have executive offices in a nearby office building, but are looking for 

more, larger and better commercial office space as well as proximity to better hospitality and dining amenities 

than is currently the case. 

This is an indoor ice skating rink located just south of the PSC’s southwestern most baseball fields, on the eastern 

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side of North 83 Avenue. The facility is operated by Spiral Incorporated. The facility offers ice skating training, 

ice hockey leagues for children and adults, public skating, public stick time and birthday parties. The facility’s 

two rinks are in a basic industrial building. Across the parking lot is Prime Pizza, otherwise these two facilities 

are isolated outposts, relatively unconnected either visually or physically with their surroundings or the rest of the 

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retail on the 83 Avenue corridor. Development of a project at PSC would help to bring Polar Ice more into the 

orbit of nearby restaurants. 

SKYE RESTAURANT 

Surprisingly, there are not a lot of live music venues in the immediate zone around the PSC. Nor are there a lot 

of non-chain, fine dining restaurants. Combine the two and there is only one—Skye. This venue is one of the 

more interesting and more popular dining options, certainly the most intimate venue available far and wide in the 

region of the West Valley. There really is nothing else like this in the region. 



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Skye is located towards the northern end of Arrowhead Fountains Center, and away from North 83 Avenue, so 

that it is not immediately visible from that road. Nor is it really visible from Bell Road either. Since it is a 

destination, this is less important than for some of the other dining formats. The Comfort Inn and Suites are 

located immediately adjacent and several other hotels are nearby. The menu is oriented largely towards steak 

and seafood, promoted as “new American cuisine with a French twist.” The grill is open for lunch, but the big 

focus is dinner. Skye has an extensive cocktail menu, especially martinis. Once a month on Tuesdays, there is a 

cooking class. Skye appears to draw from a very wide trade area including even the East Valley—Skye is perhaps 

the closest thing to a “hot spot” that the over 30 but not yet retired crowd has in the Peoria-Glendale area. The 

music acts definitely are slanted to appeal to “baby boomers.” 

SPEED STREET 

At 6542 West Bell Road in Glendale, on the northern side of Bell, just east of 67 Avenue and across from Fry’s, 

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this indoor facility offers kart racing on a one third mile loop track. This provides entertainment largely for 

young males, although the facility hosts a variety of corporate events, birthday parties, other social gatherings of 

various kinds (for example, Speed Street offers a “ladies night”). 


RENTS 

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! Numbers in most cases are asking rents, all are triple net. 

! SPCI’s perception is that there is not much quality retail space in this section of the market, leased or unleased, 

so that comps needed to be treated very carefully. Lousy space in small, grocery-anchored neighborhood centers 

is hardly comparable, nor is either small service-oriented retail space in “big box” power centers or the “big box” 

space itself. Such space comprises the majority of vacant space in the market. 

! As might be expected given the amount of retail space in the market, the different quality of locations, the age of 

some of the projects and the difference in anchor strength, there is a huge range in rents throughout the trade 

16 

area. As a generalization, standard triple net leases range from approximately $8/sf per year for spaces under 

2,000 sf. in the smallest, lowest quality projects to the high teens in slightly better quality projects—a place like 

Arrowhead Lakes, where the demographics are better is asking $19/sf. Top asking rates appear to be around 

$22.00 in basic neighborhood centers, in the quadrant northwest of the SR-101 bend. 

! There is no significant price break between spaces under 1,000 sf. and under 2,000 sf. and in fact there are spaces 

of 3,000 sf. available at these rates as well. It would appear that the majority of spaces in this size range are 

available for $10-13 per sf. In all most all cases, prices are negotiable since there is a fair amount of small store 

space on the market, although the situation varies dramatically from project to project. An approximate estimate 

would be that in the primary trade area of Glendale and Peoria there are perhaps 250 spaces available....although 

SPCI’s comment is that many of these spaces, perhaps 75% deserve to be vacant. 

There are some small spaces for as low as $4.50/sf. south of Thunderbird. 


17 


! Looking at thirteen different neighborhood centers with space available: asking rents were $8-10, $8, $19, $12, 

$11.50, 10.00, $12. $13-17, $8.50, $15.00, $9-16, $18, $15, $9-20. 

! Especially for space in the southern parts of Peoria and Glendale, rents have hardly moved over 20 years, as in 

1991, rents generally were running from $6-14/sf for tenant spaces along Peoria, Greenway, Cactus and 

Thunderbird. There has been more appreciation for rents along Bell Road and to the north. 

! Rents appear to have peaked, for many projects (not the best ones)around early 2008, when standard spaces were 

asking $24.00/sf. on an average and some spaces as high as $32.00/sf. This represented approximately a four 

dollar/sf premium over average rates in the County of Maricopa and the greater Phoenix metropolitan area, 

which was higher by about a dollar than the statewide average. 

! This highpoint proved to not be sustainable, as there was too much undifferentiated space on the market, and the 

Peoria area plunged farther and faster than the rest of the metropolitan area, falling to around $16.00/sf. on 

average. The rest of the metro area and the County declined more slowly but eventually caught up and then went 

even lower by approximately a dollar/sf. Over the last year, asking rents around the PSC project have tended to 

hold steady or decline slightly, while the decline has been greater in most of the rest of the County and the metro 

17 

area. 

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! Large spaces (closer to North 83 ) and north, are asking the same rents for 20,000 and 30,000 sf spaces as 

projects farther to the south are asking for spaces of 1,000 or 2,000 sf, on a per sf basis. 

! In general, moving from south to north, rents increase, so that rents are better north of Bell Road than south of 

Bell Road. 

An exception has been the old Desert Sky regional fashion mall, which has been reinvented as a Hispanic-oriented shopping center 

with the multi-tenant El Mercado taking over one of the old department store spaces. 



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! Likewise, as spaces approach North 83 Avenue (from either direction, from west of SR-101) or from the east 

rd st th 

(43 , 51 , 59 Avenues) on Bell Road, the rents increase. 

! As store sizes increase, rents decline accordingly. There are some large spaces on the market, notably the old 

Costco space on Bell Road, and correspondingly there is a lot of room for negotiation. In average projects where 

the asking rent is $20 for smaller spaces (1,000 sf.) for example, asking rents for spaces of 30,000 sf. are be 

$9.00/sf. 

! Space finished out for a restaurant generally is running higher....up to twice as much as surrounding store 

space....where standard tenant space is $9/sf. for space, finished restaurant space in the same project is $16/sf. 

Where it is $18, restaurant space is $26-30.00/sf. That would be for Bell Road space (remember, there is a wide 

variety of locations along Bell Road)....space on Greenway, Thunderbird, Cactus, Peoria and streets to the south 

is lower. There are restaurant spaces available for $14.00/sf., but generally in relatively isolated and inferior 

locations. 

! Lease terms are generally rather short, three to five years, reflecting a lot of uncertainty about the direction of the 

market. 

! CAM charges vary and subject to considerable negotiation in the current market, depending on the project. 

! ATC has very few vacancies, but this is also the only enclosed, indoor, air conditioned project in the trade area. 

Rents here vary as might be expected depending on whether the space is on the upper level or lower level, close 

to an entrance or an anchor, or an escalator, in the food court, or a kart space. Excluding the last two categories, 

rents here are in the high twenties or low thirties for most tenants. SPCI considers the vast majority of the tenant 

spaces at ATC to be of very poor quality (in fact, “lousy”)....most are long and narrow (the old “bowling alley” 


18 


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effect where there is barely enough space for one aisle leading straight to the back of the store space). For 

retailers wanting to expose the visitors to their merchandise (it is necessary to “get” the customer to the entrance 

before he or she can be lured inside the store), ATC does not provide a very good platform. 

! In the end, much of this is of archival value, the proposed PSC project will be so radically different from anything 

in its trade area and will offer so much more of an experience that it is difficult to use existing rents. Many of the 

targeted retailers are used to paying more, for top quality locations. That should be the case here but much will 

depend on the skill of the negotiating team, as the retailers will use local rents to argue their point of view and try 

and keep their occupancy costs as low as possible. 

This was of course the standard design layout in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. 


SHOPPING CENTERS 


There are many ways to arrange this chapter, SPCI has chosen to start with those retail centers closest to the PSC 

property, with the most important one first, and then to radiate outward and away from the site. 

ARROWHEAD TOWNE CENTER (ATC) 

This is the number one project in the trade area....the largest, most powerful, most important retail project and the sales leader. 

This super regional fashion mall, at 1,130,000 sf., is the only such project of its kind in the entire northwestern quadrant 

of the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. In fact, it is the only one that is successfully functioning west of Av. Central. 

There is no other similar project even close to it, as the others that were even remotely close have all died (or are dying) 

long, slow and painful deaths—or have been re-positioned—Metro Center, Desert Sky, Christown (Spectrum), Park 

Central. However, SPCI overall finds that the ATC project to be very disappointing and performing far below its true 

potential. As a note, the ATC should not be confused with the Arrowhead Mall, which despite its name is only a 

community shopping center, located west of SR-101, on the northeastern corner of West Peoria Road and North 99 th 

Avenue. 

Arrowhead Towne Center is an enclosed, two-level, super regional town center, originally developed as a Broadway- 

Goldwaters-Diamond’s-JCPenney-Montgomery Ward anchored project by Westcor, the Valley’s dominant retail 

developer. Westcor now is a division of Macerich. Except for JCPenney, all the other original anchors are long gone, as 

the project now has Dillard’s, JCPenney, Macy’s and Sears, with the other three anchor pads occupied by Forever 21 (in 

the former Mervyn’s location), Dick’s Sporting goods and the 14-plex AMC theaters. 

ATC is located east of North 83 Avenue, north of Bell Road and west of North 75 Avenue. ATC is surrounded by a 

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major ring road, the entrances of which “sit” approximately 150 yards away from Bell Road so that ATC is not easily 

visible from Bell Road. Having Discount Tire store on an out parcel on Bell Road next to the main entrance is not 

exactly the best of promotions for a super regional fashion mall that is focused on fashion. There is a considerable 



amount of retail out parcel development that was allowed on the outside of the ring road, between the ring road and 

Bell Road. Unfortunately, there was no systematic attempt to create a coherent leasing strategy, so the result is a 

mixture of non-synergistic uses that collectively serve to visually clutter the view corridors from Bell Road. Included 

within this zone are the upscale, healthier food, grocery store Trader Joe’s (originally Smart and Final), several hotels 

(Springhill Suites, Ramada) and a variety of dining options including Arriba, Black Angus, Burger King, Fuddrucker’s, 

Jason’s Deli, Old Country Buffet, Pita Jungle, Rock Bottom and Taco Bell. There is a jewelry store (Jared’s), a bank 

(Well Fargo), and Discount Tires. These are all too far away for most customers to walk, so their ability to augment the 

mall’s food offerings is essentially non-existent. 

Arrowhead Towne Center opened in October, 1993 on what once was an orange grove. The project is relatively well 

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located, being more or less at the northeastern corner of North 83 Avenue and Bell Road....close to SR-101 but not 

fronting on it....but SR-101 did not exist in this sector back in 1993. The mall was planned and designed in the very early 

1990s, when the steel, glass and marble indoor, enclosed regional fashion malls still ruled the day and power centers 

were just beginning to be developed. The lifestyle center was still years away from being a popular phenomenon, and 

the town center was just in the early stages of being “rediscovered” after being more or less forgotten for many decades. 

Most developers were rather grudgingly beginning to “accommodate” restaurants, food courts and cinemas after 

spending years fighting suggestions that the regional mall concept needed to be rejuvenated. 

Consequently, Arrowhead Towne Center is a representative of an earlier era of mall development and as such is far 

removed from the “latest and greatest” in mall development design, layout, tenant mix and amenities. Many of the 

tenant spaces are very narrow and long, making it difficult for a tenant to effectively showcase his or her product. 

Overall, SPCI finds the mall to be dull, boring and unexciting—not helped by the presence of National Guard, Air 

Force, Army, Navy and Marine recruiting storefronts—very patriotic but in a regional fashion mall? Maintenance and 

upkeep are good, and there is a regular program of special events....its just that, as of 2011, this project is still living ten 

years ago. 



At the most recent International Council of Shopping Centers annual international conference in Las Vegas in late May 

of 2011, the general consensus of several panels on industry trends was that a decade ago, in 2000, there were some 2,500 

regional and super regional fashion malls in the USA. In the passing decade, some eight hundred of these went out of 

business and were demolished (Los Arcos would be a good local example), converted to another format (Spectrum 

would be a local example) or converted to non-retail usage. Of the remaining approximately 1,700 malls, estimates by 

experts at the conference were that approximately 200 of the survivors were so strong and so powerful, that their future 

was assured—projects such as Fashion Valley (San Diego), South Coast Plaza (Costa Mesa), Stanford Shopping Center 

(Palo Alto), Fashion Show (Las Vegas), Galleria (Houston), North Park (Dallas), Shops at Bal Harbour (greater 

Miami), Bellevue Square (Bellevue, Washington) and Scottsdale Fashion Square. Another five hundred, or so, are 

expected to “remake” themselves and probably will survive. However, the fate of the remaining one thousand was very 

much debated....there are a lot of shopping centers “out there” with Macy’s, JCPenney and Sears....a very uninspiring 

combination. The greater Phoenix area has several candidates for this latter list of questionable survivors....headed by 

the enormous Metro Center, for a period the largest shopping center in the USA. 

Arrowhead Towne Center is definitely in the middle category—probably will survive, but that survival is not guaranteed, 

at least not as currently configured. The major anchors, by and large, are not really pulling their weight, it’s the 

speciality stores (this is the only westside location for many) that are keeping the project alive. The project has too few 

restaurants to be a draw. The food court, like the mall itself, is a throwback to another era. In an era when the “food 

court” is so yesterday and has been replaced by food terraces, food gardens, dining decks and other more exciting 

concepts, ATC still has a food court whose common area looks more like a snack area in a manufacturing facility than 

an exciting environment to have a meal. 

The project has eight smaller tenant spaces. In consideration that all of these spaces are “old style” spaces....long and 

narrow, SPCI does not find this to be surprising. The first level near Macy’s and the second level near Dillard’s seem to 

have a preponderance of the vacancies. 


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Can, and will, Macerich/Westcor do something here? Arrowhead Towne Center is currently undergoing a more upscale 

transition....slowly. It is home to the West Valley's first Sephora, as well as the first Swaroski and first Coach, for 

example. The overall layout and design does not much lend itself to the kind of surgery that was performed at Chandler 

Fashion Center, where a multiplex cinema and a “paseo” of restaurants was added, linking the cinemas to the mall in an 

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outdoor, open, “lifestyle” wing. Macerich is currently recovering from an estimated $465 million make over of the old 

Rouse property known as Santa Monica Place in Santa Monica, California. Does the company have the appetite for a 

similar adventure at Arrowhead? That remains to be seen, but SPCI is doubtful. It would seem that the company is 

content to continue to make smaller cosmetic changes and to work on upgrading the previously lackluster tenant mix. 

Estimate by officials who do not wish to be identified. The project had to be redesigned after the initial master plan was rejected by the 

city council. The project has experienced a lot of creative accounting, the estimate above includes the loss or rental income when the 

project was closed for two years during construction, as well as demolition costs, design costs, financing costs and other soft costs, not 

just the hard construction budget. 


NORTH VALLEY POWER CENTER (NVPC) 


This shopping center is located to the immediate north of the site, on the southeastern corner of Bell Road and North 

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83 Avenue. The is a one-level, open air “L-shaped” power center anchored by a large Target (114,000 sf) and 

supported by a JCPenney Home Store (53,987 sf) and Ross Dress for Less (23,984 sf). Jo-Ann Fabrics and Crafts also 

has 23,984 sf. Developed in 1992, this shopping center has a grand total of 312,514 sf of GLA and is substantially larger 

than the Arrowhead Marketplace center which is located on the northeastern corner of the same intersection. This 

project sits on a generous 52 acres, so it has approximately twice the land and 50% more space than the neighboring 

Arrowhead Marketplace, yet with 19 tenant spaces, it has fewer tenants. There has been substantial turnover here since 

1992, representative of the retail industry. Among the casualties over the years was the fast fashion retailer 

Clothestime—however, for SPCI, this was more of an operational issue for the chain, not a locational issue. 

There originally were 2,464 surface parking spaces, there are now somewhat fewer, as the steady addition of restaurants 

on out parcels on the periphery has nibbled away at the original parking ratio of 7.88 (very generous). This is another 

Macerich development, which also ended up being sold to GDA Real Estate. The project itself has two wings, one 

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facing Bell Road and the other facing North 83 Avenue. Subway and Coldstone Creamery are located at the “hinge” 

of the center where it bends and changes its face from fronting to Bell Road to fronting instead towards North 83 rd 

Avenue. Power centers started to become very popular in the very early 1990s (the first one being Metro 280 Center in 

the San Francisco Bay area), and this project was one of the earlier ones. 

There are several national chain restaurants located on pads on the periphery of the project, the most prominent being 

the extremely popular In and Out Burger that sits directly on the highly visible corner of Bell and 83rd. These 

restaurants were not part of the original project when it was first developed , but have been added in over the years to 

generate additional revenue for the center owners—Applebee’s, Denny’s, Olive Garden, Red Lobster—all popular with 

the Sun City demographic, but otherwise known mostly for the blandness of their food and their extensive networks of 

restaurants. The Olive Garden is located at the northeastern corner of the project, closest to On the Border of the 

neighboring Arrowhead Crossing project. However, there is no synergy with the rest of the project, as customers can 



come, eat at these restaurants and leave, without ever entering another store in the project. In fact, the placement of 

the restaurants tends to reduce, even block, visibility of the rest of the project. In and Out Burger is not known for 

creating great synergy within a project, they can in fact exist by themselves anywhere as a free-standing unit, and 

consequently can be found almost anywhere and everywhere throughout the Southwest. Denny’s is more national in 

scope but the same comment applies. Neither needs to be in the project and conversely, the fact that they are, does not 

help the project much, in the opinion of SPCI. 

Many of the smaller tenant spaces between the “big boxes” are vacant, except for the food operations on the western 

side. This is somewhat a reflection of the current economy, but it should be noted that the power center environment 

tends not to be conducive to cross-shopping. The proximity to large anchors does not tend to generate additional store 

visits, as most customers are in the “grab and go” mode, and are in and out of whatever store they are visiting within 

twenty minutes or less. They might or might not “grab” a bite to eat on the way out of the project. 

The power center is a very powerful retail format, when it has the right kind of retail tenants, but it could be proposed 

that a power center is not exactly the highest and best use of this prime corner of land. Although the project has 

provided some covered arcades in an effort to promote a pedestrian experience, there is little lateral movement within 

the project by pedestrians. The pedestrian flows tend to be from the cars in the parking lot into the store entrances and 

then back out again to the cars. As with its neighboring power centers, which it resembles, there is really no serious 

pedestrian or entertainment experience available here...not was there ever meant to be. The arcades that connect the 

store entrances pass by long stretches of unarticulated stucco walls, unadorned by any architectural details, serious 

landscaping, interesting graphics, artwork, street furniture or anything that would provide some visual interest for the 

customer. This is not unusual. Power centers are all about convenience, speed of shopping and low (preferably discount 

or deep discount) prices. Power centers are not town centers, they are not mean to entertain and emotionally engage 

the customer for long periods of time. 

Rents here for the smaller spaces are very negotiable, as there is substantial small space available all around the market. 

SPCI finds many of the vacant small spaces to be relatively disadvantaged in terms of visibility. 



In many ways, the PSC project is fortunate to have the North Valley Power Center as a neighbor, because the physical and 

visual contrast between the two projects will be very and immediately obvious. A more competitive, more interesting neighbor 

would pose a larger challenge for the PSC project. 



ARROWHEAD MARKETPLACE (FORMER ARROWHEAD POWER CENTER) 

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This is a classic “power center,” and is located on the northeastern corner of North 83 Avenue and Bell Road, across 

from the previously mentioned North Valley Power Center, which is on the southeastern corner of the same 

intersection. While North Valley is in Peoria, Arrowhead Marketplace is actually in Glendale. The super regional 

fashion mall, Arrowhead Towne Center, is located directly to the east. The free-standing Costco is located to the north, 

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with Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club situated somewhat farther north along North 83 Avenue. 

This 200,000 square foot, L-shaped (more or less), one-level, outdoor, open air project was developed in 1995, three 

years after the North Valley Power Center. It consists of a single line of connected stores, facing a parking lot, which 

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abuts, for the most part, 83 Avenue. There are several restaurant pads on the periphery of this 21-acre property. For 

better or worse, this is the typical retail development format along Bell Road—repetitive, unimaginative, boring, focused 

on “grab and go” shopping. There is little attempt at tenant synergy....which is largely unnecessary, because everything 

about this project discourages visitors from wanting to spend any extra time here. There are only 22 tenant spaces. 

There is a lot of parking—926 parking spaces...a pretty healthy parking ratio of 4.63 but many of these spaces on the 

edge are never used. The original developer was MaceRich, which sold the project to GDA. The change in name to 

marketplace was a clever attempt to inject some more “life” and energy into the project, but at the end of the day, this 

project remains a power center and has essentially no defining “marketplace” characteristics. 

The largest of the “big box” tenants is Best Buy (approximately 50,000 sf), which sits on the northern end of the property 

but is still visible from the intersection. Other tenants include Office Max, Mega Furniture and Paddock Pool and 

Patio. Other tenants include Bedmart, Party City and Golfsmith. At one time there was a Strouds (20,400 sf) bed and 

bath superstore here. All of the tenants tend to be “grab and go” merchants....not many customers coming for office 

supplies are going to also browse for swimming pool supplies or home furniture or golf clubs on the same trip. 

Food options include the Kyoto Bowl (a longtime tenant) on the southern end of the main wing of stores, and a Del 

Taco on a pad, facing Bell Road. The small tenants are clustered east of Kyoto Bowl, facing Bell Road (but the setback 



is so great that they are not really easily visible from Bell Road). The relatively new Pacific Seafood Buffet (Hibachi and 

Sushi Grill) is the largest food option, on a pad by itself, directly on Bell Road and easily visible. The plethora of Asian 

buffet restaurants in the immediate vicinity makes this restaurant less compelling, it remains to be seen how it will 

perform over time. 

This also is not a retail project that generates any significant amount of serious pedestrian activity, as customers tend to 

visit a single store and leave. There is next to no cross-shopping going one here. Combined with its sister project across 

the street (North Valley Power Center), there is almost a half million square feet of retail power center space at this one 

intersection....impressive power, but the entertainment value experience for the customer is essentially zero, except 

perhaps for when one is inside the Best Buy store itself and considering the purchase of a home entertainment theater. 

This is a great location, very visible and the PSC project is very fortunate not to have a more competitive project on this corner 

as competition. 


ARROWHEAD CROSSING 


This is yet another power center on Bell Road, in Peoria, this one being located just immediately east of the North 

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Valley Power Center and extending east to North 75 Avenue. To say that there are too many “Arrowhead” centers 

would be an understatement. There are also a lot of projects nearby using the name “Crossing.” This project spreads 

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out from the southwestern corner of the Bell Road and North 75 Avenue intersection (McDonald’s is on a pad on the 

corner) to the south, and west. This one-level, open air project opened in 1994 and was developed by Developers 

Diversified Realty on 43 acres (for $35 million). This is the “king” of the power centers in this area around the PSC, at 

412, 368 sf. 

There has been considerable turnover in tenants over time as “big boxes” have come, and gone—Bassett Furniture 

Direct, Circuit City, CompUSA, Linens N Things, Oshman’s Sporting Goods....almost a history of retailing over the last 

two decades. Unlike Kimco with its Gateway Market Square (farther east on Bell Road), DDR has done a much better 

job in keeping this project operational and performing...but then, this project has a better location. There are a total of 

34 tenant spaces—quite a bit for a power center, almost enough to push it into a power town format except that the 

design is “classic” power center. 

The big anchor here is Nordstrom Rack (36, 102 sf.), which actually sits on its own pad on the eastern end of the project, 

facing (for some strange reason) the parking lot rather than facing Bell Road (which would provide more visibility). 

DSW has a major store of 35,500 sf. here as well (facing Bell Road), as do Old Navy, Home Goods, Ulta, Hobby Lobby, 

Staples (20,000 sf), Big Lots (21,000 sf) and David’s Bridal (now vacated). There is also a Barnes and Noble (30,000 sf) 

here...somewhat strangely, as this is not the most hospitable of environments for a Barnes and Noble (certainly not like 

Kierland Commons) Staples and Big Lots (originally Pic n Sav) who were two of the original tenants in this project. 

This project, still owned by Developers Diversified Realty (DDR), is operationally separate from its neighbor to the 

west, North Valley Power Center. However, visually it is difficult to make a distinction of where one project ends and 

where the next project begins. The hardy pedestrian (especially in the summertime) can in fact walk from one project to 



the other and not really notice that he or she is in a different project. This project also has appreciable small store 

vacancy. However, again, this is in part a reflection of the economy and in part a reflection that power centers are not 

friendly operating environments for most smaller tenants. The small store spaces are also relatively spread out, rather 

than concentrated, so that they tend to be almost “invisible” to the customer rushing into one of the “big boxes.” 

The small tenant spaces are almost all vacant, and the center management is attempting to fill space with short-term and 

seasonal leasing arrangements (officially there are six spaces for lease, ranging from 798 sf. to 9,470 sf., but more spaces 

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appear to be vacant). The vacancies are especially prevalent east of DSW, extending to North 75 Avenue (a very 

“invisible” part of the shopping center with nothing really to “pull” customers into this corner). DDR is willing to 

accept medical tenants willing to use the space for offices. Rents are very negotiable. This vacancy might seem to be a 

depressing situation, but SPCI does not consider this to be a serious issue. Instead, SPCI assesses this as a reflection of 

the amount of poorly positioned small store space available along the Bell Road corridor, along with the fact that most 

small stores tend not to do well in power center environments. 

As with the other power centers, this project has a good number of restaurants on pads, scattered around the property. 

Peter Piper Pizza (an early tenant) is located on the eastern side, well hidden behind Nordstrom Rack. Sweet Tomatoes 

has a large pad on Bell Road. McDonald’s is on the northeastern corner of the market. The Five and Diner is between 

McDonald’s and Sweet Tomatoes. On the Border (Tex-Mex)—one of the more interesting restaurants in the area—is 

located on the isolated northwestern corner of the property, closest to the neighboring North Valley Power Center. 

Chili’s is just east of On the Border. 

There is a lot of retail here in this project, but the synergy once again is marginal. Most customers who come here go to one 

store and leave, there is not much cross shopping, although is somewhat better coordination among at least some of the retail 

here than at the other neighboring power centers. There is some serious restaurant power here, but it is so spread out that it 

loses its power. Again, the PSC project is lucky to have this project nearby. 


ARROWHEAD FESTIVAL 


Arrowhead Festival is yet another power center located in the immediate vicinity of the site. This particular one level, 

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open air project is located on the northeastern corner of Bell Road and North 75 Avenue...diagonally across from 

Arrowhead Crossing (on the southwestern corner of the same intersection) and east of the super regional fashion mall, 

Arrowhead Towne Center. This project was somewhat of a “late comer” to development in this sector, opening in 1998, 

after its three power center neighbors. 

This was a Woodmont Company (out of Dallas, Texas) project of 190,312 sf....a tough sizing proposition in a crowded 

marketplace, because the Arrowhead Marketplace, Arrowhead Crossing and North Valley Power Center projects are all 

larger. This should have required Arrowhead Festival to become much better in order to compete, but SPCI finds it to 

be “more of the same.” Still, for much of its life cycle, the project has been 100% leased. 

Big box power tenants include The Sports Authority (40,700 sf), Bed Bath and Beyond (37,723 sf), Toys R Us (30,724 sf) 

and until recently, Borders Books and Music (25,200 sf). Why Borders ever was here is not clear to SPCI, since 

generally a bookstore such as Borders does much better in a friendlier environment with more restaurants and more 

pedestrian activity (Kierland Commons would be an example). There was very little synergy with the other retailers in 

the project, few customers visit a sporting goods store and a book store on the same trip, or shop for linens and books at 

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the same time. East across the street (North 73 Avenue) is a Petsmart. Overall, there are 19 tenant spaces here. 

There are six restaurants—and as is typical, they are “spread out” along the periphery, each one on its own separate pad, 

separated from the others by parking. Mimi’s Café (popular with the Sun City crowd) occupies the most prominent pad 

position on the southwestern corner of the property, with great visibility from Bell Road. To the north of Mimi’s is Ajo 

Al’s, one of the better Tex-Mex restaurants in the area, and north of Ajo Al’s is Souper Salads. Filling out the restaurant 

roster, along Bell Road, are Starbucks, Genghis Buffet and Zen Buffet. Every restaurant here is surrounded by parking 

on all available sides, Mimi’s being the except because of its corner location. Souper Salads as an endcap of a group of 



in-line tenants has parking only in front. Nonetheless, the distances are great enough to ensure that no one walks from 

one restaurant to other restaurant, making a dining choice. 

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The former Borders space, an “endcap” on the eastern end of the project, closest to North 73 Avenue (Petsmart across 

the street to the east) is being released, at the moment, terms of “very negotiable.” Given the amount of big box space 

available, it might take awhile to fill this space, a lot depends on the energy level of the brokerage involved. 

Again, the PSC project is fortunate to have such an uninteresting, emotionally barren, generic power center at this loction. 


ARROWHEAD FOUNTAINS CENTER (AFC) 


This project is located in Peoria and is directly across from the site. Arrowhead Fountains Center—a strange name 

because there really is no prominent or interesting fountain, or group of fountains, anywhere on the property—is an 

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entertainment center. The project includes the southwestern corner of the Bell Road and 83 Avenue intersection, 

where it faces off against two power centers. This project might seem to be a welcome change from the multitude of 

power centers in the vicinity, but it is designed basically the same way—to encourage one-stop visits. The restaurants are 

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spread out along the entire frontage of 83 Avenue, each one separated from its neighbors by a “sea” of asphalt parking 

spaces. While there are some strong tenants here—PF Chang’s, Cheesecake Factory, Corner Bakery—the synergy tends 

to be dissipated by the layout and design of this project. Together, this is the most interesting collection of restaurants 

(more than a dozen) in the West Valley, but no pedestrian experience is possible here despite some modest curbside 

landscaping enhancements that provide pedestrian connections from the sidewalk to the restaurants (and which are 

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extremely under utilized as there is minimal pedestrian activity along North 83 Avenue). The good news is that these 

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restaurants have established 83 Avenue as a dining destination for the entire West Valley. There currently is one 

restaurant vacancy, the old Irish pub. 

SPCI does not view AFC as direct competition since the experience that this project provides is very different. The project can 

in fact compliment the PSC project, since the AFC has a large multi-plex cinema....a synergistic and compatible use. The 

restaurants in AFC may in fact end up complimenting, and be complimented by, the restaurants at the PSC project. A lot 

depends on the willingness of the AFC to consider some design modification which would enhance the flow of pedestrians 

across and around the project (currently, there are more barriers to pedestrian circulation than enhancements). 


ARROWHEAD PALMS 


There are too many projects with Arrowhead in the name. This is one more. Arrowhead Palms is a smaller (96,400 sf.), 

one-level, open air, L-shaped neighborhood retail project located on the southeastern corner of Bell Road and North 

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75 Avenue. Parking is surface parking, in front of stores. There is some modest landscaping within the project and 

brick facing on the facades—somewhat more decorative than surrounding projects. The landscaping along Bell Road is 

actually quite extensive. There are major signage pylons but the name of the project is very understated. At the same 

intersection, but on the northeastern corner, is the Arrowhead Festival power center. On the same intersection, but on 

the southwestern corner is the Arrowhead Crossing power center. 

The big anchor here is Cost Plus World Market. There are several in-line fast food places—The Greek Wrap, Jamba 

Juice, JuJu Berri, The Coffee Bean—mixed in with Big Discount Eyeglasses—but nothing all that commanding. The 

largest restaurant is Rubio’s Fresh Mexican Grill (essentially tacos), which is in an endcap location closest to Bell Road. 

There is a Payless Shoe Source, a New Balance shoe store, a Game Stop, a Re Bath and Kitchens (the other endcap, 

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closest to North 75 Avenue), Beauty Brands superstore (plus spa and salon) and a Berean Christmas store (next to 

Payless), along with a number of vacant smaller stores. Depending on the location, shade is provided either by a roofed 

arcade or a narrow metal canopy. There are a fair number of vacant storefronts here, including one larger space. Most 

of the vacancies are in the interior of the project, where there is little visibility from either street. Zell is doing the 

leasing. 

This is a small project, poorly organized with a mishmash of tenants. It is definitely not competition. 



GLENDALE MARKET SQUARE (FORMER COSTCO PLAZA, FORMER PRICE CLUB 

PLAZA) 

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This is another classic power center, located on the northeastern corner of Bell Road and North 59 Avenue in 

Glendale. Gateway Village is on the northwestern corner of this same intersection). The center extends east to North 

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57 Avenue, so that the project has full frontage on three sides. The project faces another power center to its 

immediate south, across Bell Road, the Talavi Town Center, anchored by a Wal-Mart SuperCenter. There are in fact 

shopping centers on all four corners of this intersection, and at one time, this was “The” main shopping district for this 

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part of the greater Phoenix market. There are in fact, 28,400 vehicles traveling along 83 Avenue next to the former 

Home Base store. However, the market continued to evolve, and today, in 2011, the locus of retail power is at North 

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79 Avenue and Bell Road and North 83 Avenue and Bell Road—farther west. 

This is a project of 221,388 sf (not including the former Costco pad of 112,000 sf) on 40.5 acres. The total GLA of the 

original project is 333,388 sf...slightly larger than North Valley Power Center. There are still 2,091 original parking 

spaces....an amazing 9.44 parking ratio (not counting Costco, but more realistically, still 6.27 including Costco)! There is 

absolutely no landscaping here....but the intent was never to create an interesting or a beautiful shopping center. 

Rather, this was a classic “grab and go” project designed to make it easy and convenient for the shopper to run in, grab 

what they needed and then to rush back outside and leave. There was no expectation that there would be any crossshopping. 

The original developer here was Kornwasser and Friedman of Los Angeles, back in 1989, and this was their “classic” 

development template....a Price Club teamed up with a Home Base...and 17 smaller tenant spaces....the seemingly 

perfect combination of a membership warehouse club with a home improvement superstore, supplemented by some 

basic services. At the time, this was the leading “edge” of power center development when the concept was first being 

rolled out. Price Club bought their own pad, which has proven subsequently to be a problem in efforts to reposition the 

center because current owner Kimco does not control the old Price Club parcel. However, Costco bought The Price 

Club in 1993 and changed the name of the project. Meanwhile, Home Base struggled and ultimately went out of 



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business in 2000. Costco decided to move west to a larger, free-standing store on North 83 Avenue (north of 

Arrowhead Marketplace). For awhile, Levitz Furniture occupied the 45,000 sf space between the two big boxes, but 

they are also gone now too. Kimco is attempting to subdivide the old Home Base space and lease 28,909 sf of the 

former 103,909 sf space. 

There are eight buildings around the periphery of the project, a combination of restaurant pads and small store spaces in 

three of the peripheral buildings. Smaller tenants include Cash and Go (1,457 sf), Compass Bank (3,466 sf), Salon 

Boutique (11,000 sf), Salon 59 (1,885 sf) and T-Mobile (4,200). Restaurants are the best part of this project now—they 

include Cucina Tagliani (4,920 sf), El Pollo Loco (2,815 sf), Il Primo Pizza (3,302 sf), O’Sullivan’s Sports Bar (7,200 sf) 

and Wendy’s....and one of the most popular restaurants along this section of Bell Road...Popo’s Fiesta del Sol, a Tex- 

Mex restaurant of 8,000 sf with a weird name but quite well-known. 

Costco was replaced by WinCo Foods, which was not able to stay around. The Home Base space was taken over by 

Floor and Decor. While the official current name of this project is Glendale Market Square, there is no signage 

anywhere to indicate this fact. 

This project is about as “basic” as one can find....ugly industrial buildings with a huge asphalt parking lot devoid of 

headstones, curbs, planters, landscaping or anything that might lend a little bit of visual interest to the project. The big 

boxes have been vacant for years, so the retail action is all along the frontage. This project is one of a “line” of four 

shopping centers on the northern side of Bell Road. These projects face another four retail centers on the southern side 

of Bell Road in this sector. The project will need more than a change of name to restore it to its former power position. 

This is a poster child for deadmalls.com and deserves to be demolished. 


GATEWAY VILLAGE 


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This is a one-level, open air community shopping center located on the northwestern corner of North 59 Avenue and 

Bell Road in Glendale. On the northeastern corner of the same intersection is Glendale Market Square (originally 

Price Club Plaza, then Costco Plaza). On the southeastern corner of the same intersection is Talavi Town Center with 

Wal-Mart. The developer was Leo Eisenberg, who came to the area in the mid-1970s. This project was developed in the 

late 1980s. Original plans called for an AMC 10-plex cinema as the main anchor. 

The current anchor is Stein Mart (46,920sf), which is set back on the northern edge of the property. The remaining 

tenants are arranged more or less in a series of unconnected buildings that are placed around the central parking lot. 

Circle K (an original tenant), Wendy’s (another one of the original tenants) and Arby’s are situated on individual pads 

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on the southeastern corner of the property, closest to the North 59 Avenue and Bell Road intersection. The project 

also has a Subway (1,200 sf), Little Caesar’s Pizza (1400sf), Island Teriyaki (1,610 sf) and Chicago Gyro (1,200 sf) for 

food, as well as Macayo’s Restaurant and Tailgater’s Sports Bar. In addition, there are a wide variety of small tenants, 

generally service or convenience oriented (All American Pool and Patio, All State Insurance, Cigar Inn, Cox 

Communications, Dahn Yoga, Edward Jones and Company, Fast Signs, Oba Cleaners, Pure Tan, Rawhide Travel, 

Realty One, Salon de Lux, Sonoran Wellness Spa, Tiffany’s Nails, United Beauty). Somewhat out of place is Red Wing 

Shoes. There is also Azz Beads and a billiards parlor as well as a tanning salon. The largest number of small tenants is 

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located on the eastern side of the project, facing onto North 59 Avenue. Ink Therapy Tatoo is also a tenant. Overall, 

there are 37 tenant spaces. Calvary Church sits on a parcel on the western side of the project but is not part of the 

shopping center. 

This is a very basic and non-descript retail project with no noteworthy competitive advantage and no notable tenant mix. 

No offense to Leo Eisenberg, however, they are a full service commercial brokerage and the tenant mix here is about 

what can be expected when the focus is on simply filling space as fast and quickly as possible with whatever tenants can 

be located—a wildly diverse and uncoordinated mixture of tenants. The only strength is in the food category, with a 



strong orientation towards fast food. The project has some half a dozen vacancies, including one larger space of 13,260 

sf. The smallest space is 1,400 sf. Asking rents are in the $13-17/sf range. 

Visually, the project looks like any of a hundred other projects in the greater Phoenix area....eminently forgettable. The 

dominant feature for SPCI is actually the huge asphalt parking lot. It is possible to drive past this retail project and not 

even notice it, as very little stands out enough to attract the attention of the passing motorist. The project signage is very 

subdued. The energy level here is not at all helped by the presence of the largely defunct Glendale Market Square to 

the immediate east. The action is on the south side of Bell Road where Wal-Mart is located in Talavi Town Center. 


GLENDALE PALMS SHOPPING CENTER 

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Glendale Palms is a community shopping center anchored by a Fry’s hypermarket on the southeastern corner of Bell 

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Road and North 67 Avenue. Glendale Palms should not be confused with the nearby Arrowhead Palms project on 

Bell Road despite the similarity of names and the geographical proximity. Other small tenants at Glendale Palms 

include House of Fitness, Oreck Vacuum Cleaners and several vacant smaller tenant spaces. The Fry’s has a Bank of 

America and a Starbuck’s inside. On the southwestern corner of the same intersection is the under powered KMart 

center, while on the northwestern corner of this intersection is the Home Depot Center. 

This is a linear, one-level, open air, basic and traditional hypermarket anchored shopping center in Glendale. Fry’s 

Marketplace was formerly a Smitty’s but it has a Fred Meyer design because it was one of the Fred Meyer units that 

never opened. There are only nine tenant spaces plus some pads—nothing very fancy. This is not a project trying to be 

more than it really is, although it has perhaps more landscaping than similar center centers. The project is adjacent to 

the single family residential neighborhood known as Lexington Place, located to the southeast. 

This is a very commercial intersection. The fourth and remaining corner, the northeastern corner, has a very small, 

unanchored neighborhood center with an Alphagraphics. Glendale Palms is situated approximately one mile west of 

Wal-Mart and the Talavi Towne Centre. There is a Wells Fargo Bank on a pad on the northwestern corner of the 

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Glendale Palms property. There is an Econo Lube and Tune operation here on the west side, facing North 67 Avenue. 

There is also a Boston Market, facing Bell Road. Annie’s Fashion Nails is located on the eastern side of the property. 

There is also a Caramba Fresh Mexican Food restaurant located here, set back from Bell Road and not very visible. 

It could be debated whether this is a large neighborhood center or a small community center. Since the project has a large 

hypermarket, SPCI considers it to be a community center. 



In terms of providing necessary groceries and services for the surrounding residential neighborhoods, this project does just fine. 

The objective never was to provide any kind of pleasant pedestrian experience or to entice customers to spend a lot of time 

here. This is “grab and go” shopping at its best. 


DESERT GLEN SHOPPING CENTER 


This is a strange situation for a project of this size, located on the northeastern corner of North 55th Avenue and Bell 

Road, in Glendale. The property was subdivided, with Kohl’s and its fellow tenants taking the larger piece of land on 

the western side. Kohl’s and Big Five Sporting Goods lend visibility to the corner. What really puts this project on the 

map is the presence of Kohl’s, which attracts attention to what otherwise is a horizontal and largely invisible project. 

These other tenants are therefore technically not part of the project but physically and visually, the various “pieces” all 

form one unit so that some local residents just consider this to be the “Kohl’s Shopping Center.” The biggest signage on 

the property, however, is for Desert Glen. However, Desert Glen is only a small piece and is removed from the corner 

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and North 55 Avenue although a customer can drive across the parking lots from the west to reach Desert Glen. 

The actual Desert Glen is the “eastern part.” This eastern piece is a small, one level, open air, neighborhood shopping 

center. The center is 8,318 sf. Tenants include: Music & Arts and D&I Beads. There are several vacant spaces, rent is 

very negotiable. 


KOHL’S SHOPPING CENTER 

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This is an unofficial name for what is a series of tenants on the northeastern corner of Bell Road and North 55 Avenue. 

Across the intersection, just west of the southwestern corner, is the Talavi Towne Centre with a Wal-Mart Super 

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Center. The main anchor is Kohl’s, easily visible from some distance away. Kohl’s opened here on Oct. 10, 2003. On 

the southwestern corner of the property is a Big Five Sporting Goods, on a pad. Other tenants, in a line to the east of 

Kohl’s, include The UPS Store, Edible Arrangements, Farmer's Insurance, and Catherine’s. At the far eastern end is the 

Desert Glen Shopping Center, a separate project. This disaggregated situation is fairly typical of much of the retail 

development in the area. 

Kohl’s opened 13 stores in Arizona, all on the same day, on Oct. 10, 2003. Ten of these were in the greater Phoenix area. 


TALAVI TOWN CENTER 

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This another power center, this one located on 16.5 acres on the southeastern corner of North 59 Avenue and Bell 

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Road, or, from a different perspective, the southwestern corner of North 57 Avenue and Bell Road as the project 

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extends all the way from 59 to 57th. The project, which dates to 1990, extends south to Talavi Blvd. Across Bell Road 

to the immediate north is the old Price Club Plaza, now known as Glendale Market Square. On the northwestern corner 

of the same intersection is the Glendale Gateway shopping center. Finally, on the southeastern corner of Bell Road 

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and North 57 Avenue, directly east of Talavi Town Center (TTC), is the Talavi Town Center II (now with Sprouts as an 

anchor)...just to keep things confusing. Talavi Town Center is a Kimco property (as is Glendale Market Square) on 12 

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acres of land. The original developer was The Price Reit (of Los Angeles). Leo A. Daly was the architect. 

Talavi Town Center, despite its name, is, in the opinion of SPCI, not at all a town center and in fact does not even come 

close to meeting any of the essential characteristics of a “real” town center. There is absolutely no pedestrian experience 

to be gained here....this is essentially a Wal-Mart anchored community shopping center, with one-level, open air and 

unenclosed. The best that might be said is that this project has somewhat more landscaping that a typical community 

shopping center or a typical free-standing Wal-Mart store. Overall, however, this is a “grab and go” shopping center. 

Everything about the design, layout and tenant mix encourages fast “in and out” shopping....this is not the place to relax, 

unwind, meet friends or spend time. 

The project has a linear line of stores across the “back” or southern end of the property, with a few restaurants on pads 

along Bell Road. This is a relatively large project for its format, with 281,554 sf of GLA. However, Wal-Mart has a 

majority of this space with its SuperCenter (196,671 sf.). There is a TGIF (6,000 sf.) on the northwestern corner of the 

Its difficult for SPCI to see where all the architectural expertise went in this project. One of Daly’s more recent projects was the WWII 

Memorial in Washington DC, and the company is better known for large and more complex projects than simple power centers. 


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property, a Taco Bell on the northeastern corner , and a Pizza Hut (3,062 sf) and a Tokyo Lobby Sushi half way in 

between. The project has a (newer) Long John Silver restaurant on a pad, set back from Bell Road. There is also a 

small PayLess Shoe Source here (a good fit with Wal-Mart) and a Mor Home Furnishings “big box” (40,000 sf.) The 

eastern end of the center is anchored by Anna’s Linen’s (15,000 sf.), a good “fit” with Wal-Mart, but also a lower end 

discounter popular with Hispanic neighborhoods. In between Anna’s Linens and Mor is a Michael’s (17,500 sf.) There 

are four other small tenants—Barry’s Barbershop (1,218 sf.), the Maharaja Palace (Indian food, 3,148 sf.), Cricket 

Communications (2,000 sf.) And Leslie’s Pools (3,742 sf.). There is only one space available here, a space of 990 sf. 

Between Tokyo Lobby and Payless ShoeSource, on Bell Road. 

This project generally has had a high occupancy rate. There was a Party City here at one time. Rents ten years ago were in the 

$13-14.00/sf. range and in 2011, they are not much different. Not many tenants can work well together with a Wal-Mart 

SuperCenter, but the ownership here has done a good job of collecting compatible co-tenants. This is a “grab and go” 

shopping experience, there is no need to entertain the customer , and consequently, there is also no reason for the customer to 

“hang” around here, the project is devoid of any kind of ambiance. Customers can visit TGIF without having anything to do 

with the rest of the project. 

Actually the Taco Bell pad on the corner was sold off so that Taco Bell is not technically part of the project, although visually it 

obviously appears to be. 


TALAVI TOWN CENTER II 


Its hard to believe that the developer could not come up with a better name. While this one is descriptive and identifies 

it (“as next to Talavi Town Center”), it does display a certain lack of creativity. In any case, this is essentially a smaller 

community shopping center anchored by a Sprouts supermarket. This is a one-level, open air project. Old Chicago 

Pizza is located on a pad on the northwestern corner. The Outback Steak House is on a pad on the northeastern corner. 

Neither restaurant contributes any synergy to the rest of the center as both are so far removed from the main part of the 

project as to be practically free-standing. There are very few tenants here and one might well classify this as a “small” 

power center, at least in terms of its visual appearance. However, SPCI tends to believe that in order to achieve a power 

center status, a project must have either some very large “big boxes” or a lot of smaller “big box” type retailers and 

Talavi II falls short. The project is currently owned by Kimco, which has several other retail properties along Bell Road. 

Until recently there was also a Party City in this shopping center, but they vacated their position and the space (10,100 

sf) is available for lease. The space is being offered at $9.00/sf/year triple net, which says something about the space, the 

center and the immediate surrounding area. The adjacent space of 2,500 sf. (a former restaurant space, with tenant 

improvements including an outdoor dining patio) is also available and is being offered at $16/sf/year NNN. There is a 

possibility of combining the two spaces of a total of 12,600 sf. 

SPCI’s assessment of this project is “We have some land, let’s build something and see if we can fill it up, don’t worry 

about any kind of positioning strategy or leasing strategy.” 


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KMART CENTER (BELL ROAD SHOPPING CENTER) 

KMart is located on the southwestern corner of North 67th Avenue and Bell Road. On the northwestern corner of the 

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same intersection is Home Depot. On the southeastern corner is Fry’s (formerly a Smitty’s). It is difficult to say much 

that is positive about this KMart. There were rumors that it had closed recently, and while it feels like it is almost 

closed, and looks like, on the inside, like the employees feel that it might close, it is still around. This is a very visible 

site, with good frontage on Bell Road. There are several small retail pads here, this is another project that has been 

broken into parcels and the integrity of the center as a single ownership destroyed. One of the restaurant tenants was 

Mixteca, a Mexican restaurant, which has closed. 

HOME DEPOT CENTER 

This is a project on the northwestern corner of North 67 Avenue and Bell Road, across from KMart, which is on the 

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southwestern corner. On the southeastern corner is Fry’s, previously a Smitty’s. At one time, there was an Osco Drug 

Store (now a Bevmo), a Hollywood Video and a Red Brick Video here, but they are all gone now. Similar to the KMart 

center across the street, this shopping center has various pieces with separate owners. Physically the project appears to 

be one shopping center, but the 21,000 sq. ft. of small store space is separate from Home Depot. To the west, on Bell 

Road, is Ashley Furniture. 

At one time, this was a Smitty’s, the leading grocery store chain in the greater Phoenix market in the late 1960s and 1970s. The first 

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one opened in 1964 at Buckeye and 16 , doing business as Smitty’s Big Town. In 1980, the owner sold to a Canadian company, 

Steinberg, which was not able to invest in the stores. So the chain was sold to The Yuicapa Companies of Southern California, which 

bought Fred Meyer and tried to fold Smitty’s into the Fred Meyer chain of stores. This did not work as planned and in 1999, Fred 

Meyer was sold to Kroger, which absorbed the old Smitty stores into its Fry’s Marketplace chain of stores. 



GLENDALE TOWN CENTER (TARGET PLAZA) 

With an impressive name like this, one might reasonably expect to find a major retail project here. The original name, 

Target Plaza, fits the project much better. This is essentially a modest, one-level, open air, power center of 151,802 sf., 

anchored by Target (100,000 sf.) with a Wells Fargo Bank on a pad, a Denny’s restaurant and a large (10,496 sf.) 

restaurant pad, formerly a Mexican restaurant). Projects such as this have totally devalued the “Town Center” name in 

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the greater Phoenix area. This project is located on the southwestern corner of 43 and Peoria, approximately four 

miles south of Bell Road and approximately six miles east of SR-101—far enough away from the PSC property even if 

the tenant mix was relevant, which it is not. The Arizona Canal passes through the area. Across the intersection on the 

northeastern corner is a small neighborhood center with a Jack in the Box on a pad on the corner. The project opened 

in 1981. 

There are 14 tenant spaces here, and for the last ten years, at least, there have usually always been several vacant small 

tenant spaces. It is difficult to say much about this project other than it is a typical , older, discount-oriented project with a 

strong convenience good and services orientation. Maintenance and upkeep have been marginal and the project is certainly 

imminently forgettable. 


ARROWHEAD PROMENADE 


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This is a power center located on the southwestern corner of SR-101 and North 59 Avenue. The project, built in 2001, 

presents its “back” to the adjacent SR-101 and faces to the south, towards West Behrend Drive. The project is very 

visible from SR-101. The signage along the lateral frontage road of SR-101 is good enough to indicate who the tenants 

are, although the signage is surprisingly not very visible from the distance. Arrowhead Promenade is located 

approximately a quarter mile north of Citadella Plaza, and just northwest of nearby Midwestern University. There is a 

small neighborhood shopping center located across the SR-101 to the north. 

This is a linear, open air, one level project of 250,000 sf—more of less at the lower limit required for a power center to 

really exert some power in its marketplace. The anchors here are “category killer” big box tenants Home Depot, Staples 

and Petco. There is a good amount of fast food here, typical of what might be expected in a power center—Del Taco, 

Hot Bagels, Luna Pizza, Panda Express, Subway. The proximity of Midwestern University to the immediate southeast 

provides a good supply of students looking for easy, fast and cheap food options. 

As might be expected of a power center environment, there is very little ambiance to be found here, this is definitely a 

“grab and go” environment for the shopper anxious to make a purchase and get out as fast as possible. 


CITADELLA PLAZA 


Actually a project with some charm, this is a small, anchorless, village town center with approximately 40 tenant spaces. 

It does not have the necessary critical mass to become a serious player in the market. The design is not very consumer 

friendly in terms of circulation and signage. Still, it has managed to carve out a small niche for itself in the marketplace. 

In a market over-run with grocery-anchored shopping centers and “big box” power centers, both “peppered” with fast 

food franchises and fast casual restaurants sitting on pads on the corners, Citadella Plaza does at least represent 

something different visually. 

Ownership and management (Stephens Land Company) get an “A” for their promotional effort, as they promote the 

project as “Glendale’s premier shopping destination and favorite tourist attraction.” This is a quite a “stretch,” but the 

project, located on the western side of North 59th Avenue, approximately a quarter mile south of SR-101 and the 

Arrowhead Promenade shopping center, is certainly one of the more interesting retail projects in the trade area around 

the PSC property. 

The project is a two-level, open air project consisting of eight different small buildings. Most of the parking is surface 

parking, located on the perimeter to the north, or on the west side, behind the buildings. However, it is possible to drive 

through the project and surface parking is scattered through out the project. The large number of buildings on a small 

parcel does lead to some confusion and many tenants have little or no visibility from the street (or even the main parking 

areas). 

Citadella Plaza combines an interesting collection of locally-owned “mom and pop” specialty shops, several beauty 

salons, a yoga studio and small day spa with a variety of dining options. The focus here is clearly on the “baby boomer” 

and on personal fitness, health and wellness and pampering—Blissful Yoga Studio, Canyon Sports Fitness and Physical 

Therapy, Center for Venous Disease, Elements Therapeutic Message, Indulgence Medical Spa, Salon and Boutique, 

Oasis Group Fitness Studio (personal training), Stein Chiropractic, Zethina Cosmetics and Skin Care. There are several 



salons—Varo, Vivaldi and the aforementioned Indulgence. There is also a Haute C Boutique and an AMG Jewelry 

Design Center and for entertainment, the Sangria Luxe Lounge. 

This is a higher energy shopping center, evidenced by the twilight farmer’s market held every Wednesday evening. The 

project also stages music concerts and hosts a variety of charity benefits. Effort has been put into creating something of 

a pedestrian experience, on a small scale. This is in fact a non power center that invites the visitor to actually slow down 

and stroll around the walkways of the project. This is a project, somewhat unusual in this sector of the market, that 

attempts to actually create the feel of an inviting village for the neighborhood residents, although the project is a little 

too dominated by automobiles and parking from the perspective of SPCI. 

The restaurant selection is definitely not typical—Melting Pot Fondue Restaurant, Tutti Santi Ristorante Italiano, 

Zendajas American Grill. The visibility for some of the restaurants is an issue as much of this project can not be seen 

from the street, and the signage package is not what it might be in terms of way finding around the project. The Next 

Coffee Company is very popular with the area and especially with students from Midwestern University, which is across 

the street. There are several vacant tenant spaces on the lower level and substantial vacant space on the upper level, 

which is commercial office or medical-oriented space. There are a number of other service oriented tenants (Glendale 

Insurance, Primamerica, State Farm Insurance, Sylvan Learning Center, Terry Brown CPA. 

This project, in the opinion of SPCI, comes close, but misses, in the effort to create an appealing and entertaining destination 

for shopping and dining. A better design and more effort with the tenant mix would have produced a much better and 

competitive result. 


IL PALAZZO AT ARROWHEAD RANCH 


The Stephens Land Company also developed a smaller project, known as Il Palazzo, in late 2006. This is a somewhat 

smaller project than Citadella Plaza. Il Palazzo includes a 43,000-sq. ft. building which is operated as a mixed-use 

project since it includes a mixture of office, retail, restaurant and medical spaces. It might be debated how much any 

one of the tenants supports any of the other tenants, which is the goal of a mixed-used project. Il Palazzo is located in 

the Arrowhead Ranch sector of Glendale, at the corner of North 59th Avenue & Union Hills Drive. This is a long and 

narrow property, with most of the project facing West Union Hills. 

This is a small specialty center with a wide ranging tenant mix of services and food—Arizona Title Agency, Aspen 

Dental, Bravi Tuscan Kitchen Restaurant, Chase Bank, Desert Swirl Yogurt, Farmers Insurance, Ginger China Bistro, 

Hi-Energy Weight Loss Center, PSW Benefit Resources, Posh Wash Dog Wash, Souflez, Unique Physical Pilates 

Studio, and Vita Bella I. There is somewhat more architectural enhancement here than at most projects in the area, 

although the developers might have gone a few steps farther and created a really strong ambiance and experience. The 

layout and design is somewhat awkward and does not, in the opinion of SPCI, flow “well.” The use of pavers was a nice 

touch. This could have been a great project. 

Across the intersection to the southeast is Arrowhead Palms. 



MARKETPLACE AT THUNDERBIRD AND THUNDERBIRD BELTWAY PLAZA 

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The Marketplace at Thunderbird is located on the northwestern corner of North 83 Avenue and Thunderbird Road in 

Peoria, facing Thunderbird Road. It is immediately behind (north of), Thunderbird Beltway Plaza, which enjoys the 

visibility and frontage along Thunderbird. Both projects are immediately east of SR-101 and the Thunderbird off ramp. 

This is a commercial corridor—across Thunderbird to the south, on the southwestern corner, is Thunderbird Crossing, a 

power center anchored by a Lowe’s and a Sprout’s with a Burger King on a pad. Thunderbird Commercial Plaza is 

located on the southeastern corner of the same intersection. 

The Marketplace is an older Safeway anchored neighborhood shopping center, with a lot of small shop vacancies. The 

newer Thunderbird Beltway Plaza (68,700 sf.) has been carved out of the original property. The two retail projects are 

separate but essentially form one shopping location. In a normal world, this would be perhaps an issue, but this area has 

so many disaggregated retail centers with confusing layouts that there is actually nothing unusual about this 

configuration in this marketplace. The Thunderbird Beltway Plaza has a CVS Pharmacy at the eastern end (not 

technically part of the project), on the corner and a McDonald’s at the western end (facing a Burger King across 

Thunderbird Road). This is a sports oriented project with tenants such as Gold’s Gymn, Performance Bike, Baum 

Sporting Goods and the Hubbard Swim School. There is one vacant space, with an asking rent of $20.00/sf., which 

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seems high for the area. The free-standing Culver’s Restaurant is located to the east, across North 83 Avenue. 

There would appear to be a disconnect with some of the nearby neighborhoods including Ironwood, Starlight Estates 

and Westwing Mountain, given the average house prices in these communities, but it appears that many of the owners 

are highly leveraged and have modest disposable incomes, as their mortgages are consuming much of their income. The 

surrounding residential density is very good. Those residents who do not fall into this group need to venture farther 

afield to find interesting shopping or dining experiences although there is a Sprouts across the street. The Marketplace 

at Thunderbird is largely a convenience oriented, grab and go project. 


THUNDERBIRD CROSSING 

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Thunderbird is an overused name, as is the name Crossing (Arrowhead Crossing, Glendale Crossing, Peoria Crossings, 

etc.), in this marketplace. This particular power center is located on the southwestern corner of Thunderbird Road and 

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North 83 Avenue. Consequently, the project enjoys great visibility and has great frontage on two major streets. The 

shopping center is only approximately one and a half miles south of the PSC site. This project was built in 1997 and the 

original project sat on 11 acres and was only 100,000 sf. in size. 

On the northwestern corner of this same intersection is the double retail project of The Marketplace at Thunderbird and 

Thunderbird Beltway Plaza. Thunderbird Crossing is anchored by a Sprout’s. For SPCI, there is also somewhat of a 

disconnect seeing a retail project with a Spout’s, with its focus on wholesome natural and healthy foods, and a Burger 

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King and a Popeye’s fast food operations in front of Sprout’s. The restaurant pad next to Burger King, which is located 

on the western end of the property, closest to SR-101, is available for purchase. There are two vacant tenant spaces in 

line available for lease, of 1,077 sf. and 2,614 sf. out of a total of 24,000 sf. of small tenant space. Rents are very 

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negotiable. The project also has a Meineke Car Care unit facing North 83 Avenue. A large U.S. Postal Service sits on 

the south side of the property, behind Sprout’s, closer to West Wacker Road, which is to the south. Given that 

Thunderbird Road is a major on and off ramp for SR-101, there was an opportunity to do something really powerful or 

at least interesting here, but that did not, obviously, happen. On the western side, visually part of the project but on its 

own pad, is a Lowe’s home improvement superstore. Physically, this is the dominating structure because of the building 

mass. 

The PSC is not scheduled to have a grocery store, a home improvement superstore or any fast food franchises, so this project is 

largely irrelevant for the PSC property in every possible way—ambiance, design, entertainment value, tenant mix. 

A little history is in order here. This used to be a Food 4 Less Supermarket, a better fit with the fast food franchises found on the 

corner. 


PEORIA CROSSINGS 

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Peoria Crossings is located on the northwestern corner of West Northern Avenue and North 91 Avenue in the southern 

sector of Peoria. This is another power center (and “another” Crossing), a one-level, open air retail project of 238,004 

sf. There are 38 tenant spaces—14 of which are on pads, primarily along Northern Avenue. This project is located on 

the edge of the primary PSC trade area as drawn by SPCI, approximately 6.5 miles south of the PSC, just east of SR-101. 

To the west, on the other side of SR-101, is the new, vastly more interesting, Park West project. Approximately two- 

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and-a-half miles to the north, on the western side of North 91 Avenue, is the aging Pueblo Plaza power center. The 

project was developed by the Barclay Group, the architect was Kurt D. Reed. 

Peoria Crossings appears to be somewhat in advance of its market....the surrounding residential density is still low, and 

especially to the south, there are still many vacant fields....there is a clear view all the way to the Westgate project and 

the University of Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals football stadium. The major anchor here is a large Target (124,958 sf.) 

which is supported by a Kohl’s, Ross Dress for Less, Michael’s and a Petco—a perfect power center tenant mix. 

Original plans called for a multiplex cinema. 

Unlike many power centers in the region, there are not that many small store vacancies here (at least officially) despite 

the lack of immediate residential density—only three (1,634 sf, 1,474 sf, 1,400 sf). Other tenants include Anna’s 

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Linens , Famous Footwear, Dress Barn, Sally Beauty Supply, Sleep America, Payless Shoe Source and Ulta. There is 

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an AutoZone on a pad, on North 91 Avenue. The AutoZone-Claire’s-Dress Barn-Payless Shoe Source tenant mix 

rather clearly indicates the target demographic, which is lower income. The project is owned and managed by Inland. 

Projects such as this are not designed to be exciting, but the overall blandness here is extreme. 

For SPCI, Anna’s Linens tends to be a strong marker for heavily Hispanic or Afro-American neighborhoods. 



Restaurants (on pads of course) include Applebee’s, Carl’s Jr., Taco Bell and Weinerschnitzel. Panda Express is an 

endcap for the in-line shops. In terms of food, there is very little of interest here and nothing that cannot be found 

elsewhere in the trade area. This project is another classic power center, designed to expedite fast, convenient, “grab 

and go” shopping. The stores are on the northern rim of the property and form an in-line configuration, bending 

around on the western side. 


ARROWHEAD MALL 

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Some sources list this project at 182,000 sf. 


There are many shopping centers with Arrowhead in the name, but this project is perhaps the most presumptuous as the 

project is an old community shopping center, not a regional or super regional fashion mall. Located on the northeastern 

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corner of North 99 Avenue and West Peoria Avenue, in Peoria, this one-level, linear project was developed in 1969 and 

as such, rates as the grandfather of shopping centers in the area. Some 43 stores comprise this 200,000 sf. project which 

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sits on 10 acres with surface parking in front of the stores, in between the stores and West Peoria Avenue. There are 

approximately 600 parking spaces. 

The tenant mix at Arrowhead Mall has been, in recent years, quite eclectic, with a heavy orientation towards service 

retailers. This project is a poster child for all the old, obsolete and dead retail space in the Peoria-Glendale area, 

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although it is not as “dead” as Peoria Crossing (at North 83 Avenue and West Peoria Avenue). This is reflected not 

only in the general overall physical condition of the project, but in the early 1990s, this project was getting lease rates of 

$10-14/SF. A decade later, in the early 2000s, this situation had not changed (not a good sign), and another decade 

further on, the project was not even getting those rates. 

The original developer was Arrowhead Development Corp. Haver, Nunn and Nelson did the architecture...standard for 

its day but even then, undistinguished. Originally the project had (for its day) some solid anchors, all of whom are now 

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in the retailing hall of history....an Alpha Beta supermarket (later an ABCO supermarket ,an Alpha Beta spin off ), 

House of Fabrics, JJ Newberry, Sprouse Reitz (a junior department store of 10,000 sf.) and Yellow Front (an army 

surplus store of 12,000 sf.). The old Alpha Beta/ABCO space is 45,000 sf. The large bank pad (6,500 sf.) is a survivor, 

The corporate history is somewhat tangled. American Stores had its Alpha Beta brand in greater Phoenix (and Tucson) but in the mid- 

1980s decided to spin off the Arizona stores, which could not use the name Alpha Beta. So they became ABCO stores. Eventually 

they were acquired by Fleming, which then sold them off by 2001 to Albertson’s, Basha’s and Safeway. 



originally Valley National Bank, now a Chase, directly on West Peoria Avenue. As might be expected, there was a lot of 

turnover over the years, one of the small tenants in the early 1990s was Merle Norman. CVS came in on the western 

end. 

This project, like Glendale Market Square, and Peoria Crossing, is a good example of why looking at total retail space in the 

trade area, or total vacant space, or even lease rates or absorption levels, can lead to some misleading conclusions. 


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PUEBLO PLAZA (FORMER HOME DEPOT AND KMART POWER CENTER) 

This project of 315,600 sf. is everything that either of its uninspiring names suggest....dull, boring, uninteresting, aging. 

This is an L-shaped, one level, open air, power center, located on the western side of North 91st Avenue, on the 

southwestern corner with West Peoria Avenue. The aging Arrowhead Mall is situated less than a mile to the west, on 

the other side of SR-101. The “dead” Peoria Town Center is located approximately one mile and a half to the east. The 

SR-101 on and off ramps are immediately to the west and SR-101 runs along the backside of the project to the west. 

Visibility from the SR-101 is less than might be expected because of the elevation of the highway, although the Home 

Depot pylon signage is large enough to be seen from a considerable distance. The original developer was W. M. Grace 

Development Company. 

st 

The property is long and narrow on a north-south axis, wedged between North 91 Avenue and SR-101, in Peoria. 

Home Depot is the big anchor on the northern end. Other tenants include a Sears Essentials (originally a Kmart), a 

Petsmart, Staples, Big 5 Sporting Goods and Dollar General. There is a Peter Piper Pizza. Arby’s is located on a pad 

st 

along North 91 Avenue. Del Taco, Burger King and Subway have pads along West Peoria Avenue. There are a variety 

29 

of undistinguished small service tenants (nail salon, cigarette sales ). One of the medium sized “big box” spaces is 

vacant and available (rent is negotiable). The small tenant spaces in the separate free-standing building on the 

northwestern corner of the property, west of Del Taco, have had a lot of turnover and high vacancy. This is due to the 

fact that the shops do not face West Peoria Avenue and are largely invisible, and the fact that visitors to the rest of the 

project can come and go without ever knowing about or seeing these shops. The property on the northwestern corner of 

this same intersection was divided up into small individual parcels and the resulting development is best described as 

retail “clutter”—a church, Brake Master’s, an AM PM convenience minimart, and a vacant restaurant pad. 

One of the most enduring tenants here has been Cigarettes Cheaper. 



Ten years ago this project was getting $20.00/sf. rents, but that was when the project had 100% occupancy, now in 2011 it 

is struggling to get even close to those rents. 


30 

31 

Some sources indicate 108,163 sf. 

Formerly an Albertson’s. 


FRY’S FOOD PLAZA (FRY’S FOOD AND DRUG PLAZA) 

This is an older, grocery anchored, traditional neighborhood shopping center located at the southeastern corner of 

th 

North 75 Avenue and Cactus Road in Peoria. The project faces north to West Peoria Avenue. Opened in 1987, the 

30 

one-level, open air project has 110,700 sf. of GLA , the majority of which is a large Fry’s (60,000 sf. including a 

pharmacy). The project sits on eleven acres, so there is plenty of surface parking (560 spaces in fact). There are 21 

tenants. The original developer was Kornfield Koslosky Properties. The small tenants are largely service retail (Wells 

Fargo) or fast food franchises. There is a Sally Beauty Supply here. 

The pads were created later from the parking lot and sold off....currently there is a Jiffy Lube and Tune (3,000 sf.) for 

sale (built 1996). The old Hollywood Video pad is also vacant. Jack in the Box has a pad fronting on Cactus. This is a 

typical scenario for many of the shopping centers in the area, as new owners attempted to recoup their investment by 

increasing the density of development and selling off the pads on the periphery. While financially advantageous in the 

short run, such transactions generally did little or nothing to help the overall health of the core asset. Currently there 

are officially three vacant spaces of 1,890 sf., 1800 sf. and a large “mini major” space of 12,185 sf. Asking rents are 

$20.00/sf. There has been some light remodeling here. 

th 

This is a very commercial intersection. Across North 75 Avenue and to the west, on the southwestern corner, is the a 

31 

shopping center, anchored now by a specialty ethnic Lee Lee Supermarket and with a plethora of fast food operations 

(Carl’s Jr., Little Caesar’s Pizza, Panda Express, Subway). On the northeastern corner of this same intersection is an 

unanchored, small, one level neighborhood center known as Columbia Square with small tenants such as insurance 

agencies and space filling low rent tenants such as a pre-school and a dance academy. There is another small 


32 

Ace Hardware used to be here. 


neighborhood shopping center located on the northwestern corner of the same intersection, anchored by a CVS 

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pharmacy, with several vacant spaces . 

This project does exactly what it is supposed to do—provide its customers with fast and easy access to grocery shopping in a 

“no frills” and “no thrills” environment. The project is about what one would expect from an almost 25-year old project. 


PEORIA MARKETPLACE 


Perhaps the most popular name for a shopping center in the West Valley is “Marketplace.” The Peoria Marketplace is 

th 

located on the southeastern corner of West Olive Avenue and North 107th Avenue, approximately two miles west of 

SR-101 (there is a Fry’s on the southeastern corner of the overpass). This is a very commercial intersection with activity 

on all four corners of Olive and 107th. This one-level, open air, traditional neighborhood shopping center is anchored 

by a Safeway and there is an IHOP on the northeastern corner, fronting on Olive Avenue. There are officially seven 

tenant spaces vacant and available, ranging from 1,000 sf. up to 2,161 sf., for a total of at least 12,915 sf...a fair amount 

for this size and format of shopping center which has 19,000 sf of small shop space in addition to Safeway. The density 

to the north is good, but there is not a lot of residential density to the west. 


PEORIA STATION 

33 

34 

An expansion from the original 43,000 sf. 


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This is an older neighbor shopping center going back to 1985. It is located on West Peoria Avenue at North 67 Avenue 

33 

in Peoria. It is a one-level, open air project of 130,000 sf. with a Safeway (55,471sf. ) and, originally, a Walgreen’s 

34 

(13,000 sf., since departed ). There is a large Peter Piper Pizza (11,067 sf.) west of Safeway. On the corner of an 

intersection is a Mobil gas station, physically part of the project but independently owned. Pizza Hut and Taco Bell have 

pads on the northern edge of the project....also no longer part of the project as they too were sold off. The developer 

certainly maximized the use of pad space on the periphery—Checker-O’Reilly Auto Parts, Midas Muffler, Discount Tire 

and Jiffy Lube and Tune all have pads, all separately owned. 

The project sits on 20 acres of land. There are a total of 37 tenant spaces in Peoria Station—a variety of service retailers 

(Tutor Time, Great Clips) and medical offices (Banner Arizona Medical Center) or fast food outlets (China Palace). 

Originally the project was developed by Arizona Commercial Property Development Inc. It has passed through a 

number of owners since then and has been expanded. There is an LA Fitness (40,916 sf.) on the south side, next to 

Cheryl Drive. This is another project where many of the pads on the periphery (in fact, all but one) have been sold off. 

Even Kinder Care on the far western end owns its own pad now. 

This is another very commercial intersection, with a shopping center on all four corners. Across West Peoria Avenue, 

on the northwestern corner, is Crossroads Plaza, with a vacant anchor space but otherwise active with a Dollar Tree, 

Long John Silver, Pizza Hut, Radio Shack , Advanced Auto Parts and McDonald’s. On the northeastern corner is a 

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Walgreen’s is now located one mile to the north, at the southwestern corner of Cactus and North 67 Avenue, where they are on the 

th 

corner on a pad by themselves; one mile to the west, on the southeastern corner of North 75 Avenue and West Peoria Avenue, where 

th 

they likewise are on their own pad; and also one mile to the east, on the southeastern corner of North 59 Avenue and Peoria....this is 

market saturation. 



th 

small, unanchored neighborhood center with an AutoZone on a pad, facing onto North 67 Avenue. On the 

southeastern corner is another neighborhood center, with a Starbuck’s on the corner on its own pad, and an IHOP 

located to the east, facing West Peoria Avenue. The anchor is a Wal-Mart neighborhood market (not a SuperCenter). 

Peoria Station is somewhat of a “poster child” for the issues of the retail community in this area. In addition to its age, 

design, and the fragmentation of ownership, there are at least 19 vacancies in the core project, ranging from 900 sf. up to 

5,400 sf. Rents are negotiable—they were in the $6-13.00 range twenty years ago and it might be pointed out that they 

are not a lot better now. The total amount of vacant space is almost 37,000 sf. Many of the small spaces near Safeway 

and LA Fitness are vacant, but SPCI considers nearly all of them to be unattractive, very long and very narrow tenant 

spaces with limited frontage and not likely to be rented anytime soon. There are a good number of similar projects 

scattered all though the area—for starters, for example, there is not a lot of difference among the various shopping 

th th th 

centers located at North 75 Avenue and Cactus, North 67 Avenue and Cactus, North 75 and Peoria Avenue, North 

th th 

67 Avenue and Peoria Avenue and North 59 Avenue and Peoria Avenue. 


CROSSROADS PLAZA SHOPPING CENTER 


Crossroads Plaza Shopping Center is situated on the northwest corner of North 67th Avenue and West Peoria Avenue 

in Peoria, just north of Highway 60 and just west of Interstate 17, and east of SR-101. A Jiffy Lube is located on a pad 

next to McDonald' s along North 67th Avenue. This is a power center, also disaggregated through the sale of various 

parts and pieces over time. This is a very busy commercial intersection, with shopping centers (or remnants of them) on 

all four corners. 


PEORIA TOWN CENTER 


This is another badly misnamed project, as the actual result is anything but a town center. Located at the northwestern 

rd 

corner of West Peoria Avenue and North 83 Avenue, the project actually faces Northwest Grand Avenue (otherwise 

known as SR-60). West Peoria Avenue actually makes a curve here and goes north for a section before again turning 

and heading west. The project, with 205,000 sf. of GLA (mostly vacant now) opened in 1991. Peoria Station is located 

approximately two miles to the east. Pueblo Plaza is approximately one mile to the west. The former KMart is on the 

other side of Grand Avenue. 

Peoria Town Center (PTC) is an old power center, at one time anchored by a Smitty’s Bigtown, later by a Wal-Mart 

(114,000 sf.) the ultimate “grab and go” retailer and the antithesis of any serious pedestrian activity. Wal-Mart has 

moved on, as well, to better locations. There are two “big box” locations (both vacant, Albertson’s was in the middle 

space in the 1990s) and a row of small in line store spaces to the south. At one time, Blockbuster Video was here as was 

Luby’s Cafeteria. Sonic, Taco Bell and Wendy’s are all in the immediate vicinity, but across the street, not on the 

property. The site is too small to allow this project to be the dominant power center in the area, and the demographics 

make it difficult to develop some of the more specialized retail formats. Otherwise, this is a good candidate for 

“deadmalls.com.” 

This is another example that measuring the total amount of retail space in the market can lead to potentially wrong 

conclusions....this is old, obsolete space that should have been demolished. The empty space at Wal-Mart is equivalent to an 

entire smaller shopping center. How many years does a building have to remain vacant before the owners decide that perhaps 

the property needs to be converted to other uses? When both Wal-Mart and KMart have vacated their premises, this is a strong 

message about the location and the surrounding neighborhoods and the need to rethink land use. 


WAGONER PLAZA 

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Formerly Shepherds West Bar and Grill. 


Peoria Town Center is not the only troubled project in this area of Peoria. To the immediate west, on the southwestern 

th 

corner of North 84 Avenue and West Peoria Avenue is a one level, open air, linear, small (18,000 sf.) neighborhood 

shopping center with no major anchor. The project sits on approximately two acres. The best thing about the project is 

that it has almost 200 surface parking spaces. The project is known as Wagoner Plaza. It has a distinctive arcade-style 

architecture. The developer was Perkins Enterprises. 

Dating all the way back to 1975, the project has struggled to find tenants for years. In the early 2000s, occupancy was 

already below 80%. At one time there were 44 tenant spaces, but that number has ben reconfigured over time to create 

some larger spaces. At one time, tenants included Radio Shack and Whataburger. To the east, across Grand Avenue, is 

the former Wal-Mart location in Peoria Town Center. To the north, across West Peoria Avenue is the former KMart 

Center developed by Diversified Shopping Centers, also vacant. This is a brutal retail environment for a small project 

with no major tenants. No wonder asking rents are $7.00/sf....but there are only two official vacancies at the moment, of 

1,200 sf. and 1,500 sf. Many tenant spaces are being used as commercial offices. There is a restaurant on pad on the 

35 

western end (Curve on Peoria Bar and Grill ) and a small café (Café Peoria) on a pad on the northeastern corner. 

Many of the entrees for Café Peoria are below five dollars and everything on the menu is less than ten dollars for this 

family style restaurant. The Curve is more or less what might be termed a “dive bar,” with karaoke and billiards as 

entertainment. 

This project has neither the critical mass nor a specialized enough tenant mix to survive as a successful retail center. However, 

it continues to “hang on” with its low rent paying tenants. 


KMART CENTER 


This project was dead long before the current recession. Located on the northwestern corner of Northwest Grand 

th 

Avenue and West Peoria Avenue, and the northeastern corner of North 85 Avenue and West Peoria Avenue, the 

outdoor, one level project orients to the east towards Grand Avenue. Developed by Diversified Shopping Centers in 

1988, it was originally anchored by a KMart (back in the days when KMart was still a major retail powerhouse). The 

project was relatively small, at 98,637 sf. and other than KMart (76,000 sf.), had only a few tenants, including a Baskin 

Robbins. The anchor has been long vacant in terms of a serious “big box” tenant (Goodwill has occupied the premsies). 

This project mirrors the issues of Peoria Town Center (former Wal-Mart), which is located to the immediate east. To 

the south, across Peoria Avenue, is Wagoner Plaza. 

This entire area has become a kind of retailing “black hole,” with a lot of vacant or underused retail space. The best course of 

action here appears to be to demolish the project and build something else, perhaps multi-family housing. 


FRY’S PEORIA PLAZA 


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This is a simple, smaller, one level, open air project located on the southeastern corner of North 91 Avenue and West 

Union Hills Drive in Peoria. To differentiate it from the Peoria Plaza on Bell Road (to the south, with Albertson’s), this 

one is identified here as Fry’s Peoria Plaza. Opened in 1998, this is a neighborhood project of 85,000 sf., anchored by a 

Fry’s. In addition to the anchor, there are another ten tenant spaces, largely service retail (State Farm Insurance, nail 

salon, hair salon) and restaurants (Subway) along with a GNC. There was a Hollywood Video here (departed). There is 

a McDonald’s on a pad on the corner. Union Hills Office Park is across West Union Hills to the north. There is a 

Walgreen’s on the northeastern corner of the intersection in the center with Fresh and Easy. 

There are a lot of Fry’s Marketplace and Fry’s Food and Drug Plaza projects in the market, making it difficult to keep them all 

separate. The average customer is coming from a mile away, or less, so that the confusion of identities is not a major issue. 

This is a simple, unpretentious retail project that does not try to be more than it is....which is a convenience-oriented shopping 

center. 



ALBERTSON’S PEORIA PLAZA (ALBERTSON’S PLAZA) 

st 

There is sufficient room for confusion here with two different Peoria Plaza projects on North 91 Street in Peoria. This 

st 

project is a grocery-anchor neighborhood shopping center located on the northeastern corner of North 91 Avenue and 

st 

Bell Road. Sunset Ford is located across North 91 Street on the northwestern corner of the same intersection. Power 

Chevrolet is located at the same intersection, on the southeastern corner, across Bell Road. Peoria Nissan is located on 

the southwestern corner of the same intersection. West of Ford are Lexus and Mercedes Benz dealerships. 

Built in 1997, the one level, open air project consists of Albertson’s as the anchor (actually an Albertson’s-Osco 

pharmacy combination) and 14 smaller tenant spaces and two pads (Chevron and Whataburger). The project sits 

approximately one mile west of the Bell Road-SR-101 interchange. Albertson’s faces to Bell Road. 

The center is for sale, and the available “piece” is only 21,551 sf. since Albertson’s owns its own pad and the gas station 

and hamburger restaurant are also independently owned. Consequently, the owner of the center owns only a piece that 

wraps around Albertson’s and does not control the center of the project or the corners....a tough proposition that makes 

it difficult for an owner to control his or her destiny at this center....a typical situation throughout the region for projects 

of this format. The next largest tenant was Blockbuster Video (4,862 sf.) And this space has been vacated and is 

available. There are officially three other vacant spaces of 960 sf., 1,300 sf. and 1,734 sf. Rents are very negotiable. The 

other tenants are about what might be expected of a very basic project of this format—Starbuck’s (1,422 sf.), Liberty Tax 

Service, Lan Nail, Cost Cutters, All American Eye Glass Repair, Sunshine Cleaners, Salon Rituals , an Edward D. Jones 

investment office...nothing especially distinguished or interesting. 

Given the plethora of automotive dealerships in the vicinity and the presence on Bell Road and the proximity to Sun 

City, SPCI is somewhat surprised that a more powerful project was not developed here, and that the tenant mix does not 

st th 

offer more restaurants, but the site is constrained between North 91 and North 89 Avenues. 


PARK WEST 


In terms of design, this is perhaps the most interesting and engaging retail project in the relative vicinity of the PSC 

property....so to speak, a “breath of fresh air” amidst all the almost identical grocery anchored neighborhood shopping 

centers and “big box” power centers. Park West is also some seven miles distant, to the southwest, in southern Peoria. 

The project, what SPCI classifies as a true town center (there are many projects in the marketplace with the name 

“Town Center” but in terms of format, they are not really town centers) is located on the northern side of Northern 

Avenue, several hundred yards west of SR-101. However, it is not especially visible from the elevated SR-101 at this 

point. 

On the eastern side of this SR101 overpass is the Peoria Crossing project with Target as an anchor. The Park West 

project is approximately one mile northwest of the Arizona Cardinals Stadium and the Westgate City Center project. 

Park West is a 250,000 sf. open air, mostly one level, town center project (in Phase I), as vehicles are able to drive 

through the center of the project. There is a multi-level, multi-family residential component connected to Park West, on 

the eastern side of the project, providing a stronger town center atmosphere. The developer is the Howard Hughes 

Corporation. 

Harkins is the major anchor, with a 14-screen multiplex at the northern end of the project. The project has nine 

restaurants including a Flemings Steakhouse and Wine Bar and BJ’s Brewhouse. The other restaurants win points for 

being relatively unique and not the “same old” tired chains that can be found elsewhere in Peoria and Glendale, 

although SPCI personally would have suggested more restaurants and a greater variety but it’s a good start: Blu Burger 

Grill; Coffee, Tea and Me; Grimaldi’s Pizzeria; Rustica Café and Bar; Sandbar Mexican Grill. 

There are approximately sixty specialty retailers here with a strong lifestyle orientation. Tenants include Brighton 

Collectibles, Bath and Body Works, Chico’s, Francesca’s Collection and Victoria’s Secret—a good start. However, 

SPCI is less certain about how Lenscrafters, Merle Norman, Sunglass Hut, Vans and some of the other tenants fit in 

with the first group of tenants. There are still substantial vacancies, but the leasing team is willing to 


36 

Www.shopparkwest.com. 


negotiate....considering the assets of the developer, the possibility exists, at least in theory, that they could assemble a 

potent tenant mix, although so far, this has not happened. The project has two small parks, outdoor fireplaces, a good 

amount of landscaping, art work and reflecting pools. There are currently 1,784 parking spaces. Overall, the design and 

layout, compared to other West Valley projects, is relatively good (certainly much better than The Shops at Norterra), 

and there is relatively good use of different materials, textures, finishes, furnishings and colors. 

Interestingly enough, the project has based itself on a current trade area with 617,734 residents (695,568 by 2015) with a 

36 

daytime working population within five miles of 72,239 workers. This seems rather optimistic, especially given that 

large swaths of land within three miles are still either vacant or used for agriculture. A second phase of 105,000 sf. is in 

the master plan, which would bring the total project to 355,000 sf. 

SPCI recommends that the PSC project proceed and not worry excessively about Park West, which is seven miles south of the 

PSC. The PSC should have, if done correctly, a much better design, and a vastly superior tenant mix. Other than Peoria 

Crossing and Westgate, this project “sits” by itself, whereas the PSC project will benefit from its location in the midst of an 

already established and very strong retail corridor. 


AGUA FRIA PLAZA 

37 


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Agua Fria Plaza is located on the southeastern corner of North 91 Avenue and Olive Avenue in Peoria. The center is 

located just east of the Olive Avenue on and off ramps for SR-101. The project is also situated approximately one 

thousand yards south of Pueblo Plaza (Home Depot, Sears Essentials) and approximately three quarters of a mile north 

of Peoria Crossings. The shopping center should not be confused with the Agua Fria Towne Center, a Wal-Mart 

anchored project by Vestar located approximately 4.5 miles farther south on the northeastern corner of SR-101 and 

Camelback Road in southern Glendale, developed in 2002. Nor should it be confused with Agua Fria Promenade, a 

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larger retail project by DeRito located on the southeastern corner of North 91 Avenue and Northern Avenue, which 

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opened in 2003. Across North 91 Avenue to the west of Agua Fria Plaza is a World Buffet restaurant (Chinese). It is 

st 

five miles east to the Fry’s on the northwestern corner of Olive Avenue and North 51 Avenue. 

Agua Fria Plaza is a large neighborhood shopping center, one-level, open air, of 106,788 sf. It is anchored by a Fry’s 

37 

Food and Drug, which faces north towards Olive Avenue. There are 605 surface parking spaces, a very generous 

situation for this size of shopping center but certainly one that guarantees easy use of this shopping center. There are 

eight available tenant spaces, generally in the 1,000-2,000 sf. range although there is one larger space of 6,480 sf. 

available. Asking rent ranges from $12.00-17.00/sf. Overall, there are 26 tenant spaces in addition to Fry’s. McDonald’s 

(northwestern corner of the property) and KFC (northeastern corner of the property) sit on individual pads. Other food 

options here are in line, and include Papa John’s Pizza, Subway, Ramiro’s Mexican Food (1,500 sf.) and Dolce Yogurt. 

Otherwise, the tenant mix consists largely of services (Animal Hospital, Nationwide Vision, Cali Pro Nails, Pack Mail 

and More, Arizona Dental Care and Cricket Wireless). In addition, there is a Button’s n’ Bows, a Costcutters, a GNC 

and a Smoker’s Village. 

Some differences in how this is calculated, some sources list the center at 109,928 sf., but this is not a huge difference. 



This project has easy access to and from SR-101 and lots of parking, for those customers seeking to buy groceries or basic 

items, or looking for fast food. Otherwise, this is a fairly typical and undistinguished project. Customers seeking 

entertainment or immersion in a more emotional experience must look elsewhere. 


GREENWAY PROMENADE 

38 

39 


This is a smaller and older (1988) neighborhood shopping center located on the northwestern corner of West Greenway 

th 

Road and North 59 Avenue, diagonally across from the Thunderbird School of Global Management campus. West 

Mary Jane Lane is just north of the center and the houses on the south side of this lane back up to the center’s service 

road. Greenway Promenade is located approximately one mile south of the Wal-Mart SuperCenter and the Talavi 

Towne Centre on Bell Road. The smaller Greenway Plaza is located at the same intersection, but on the southwestern 

corner. Another small neighborhood shopping center is located on the northeastern corner of this same 

38 

intersection—Bayless Shopping Center—notable for the presence of Ray’s Famous New York Style Pizza and the 

39 

Erawan Restaurant . 

Greenway Promenade is an open air, one level, L-shaped project and looks and feels even older than it is. The center 

has 63,000 sf of GLA. It has no major anchor. In terms of traffic, the Shell Gas Station on the corner is clearly the 

th 

busiest tenant. There is an Honest-1 Auto Care on a pad, facing North 59 Avenue and just north of the Shell station. 

Kimmy’s has a large in-line space on the western side. The Golden Dragon restaurant sits on a pad, facing Greenway. 

Given the proximity of the Thunderbird School, the fact that Thunderbird is a private post graduate institution and that 

it has been on its current site since the end of World War II, one might reasonably expect to find an more active and 

thriving university village type of shopping center with more tenants catering to the needs of students (cafes, bars). 

Relatively few tenants appear to be at all useful to students with the exception of Childtime Childcare and the 

restaurants, none of which are well known. There are not many on-campus recreational activities available, but 

Greenway Plaza seems strangely disconnected from the campus given its proximity. Arizona State University’s West 

Three units in the metro area; Ray’s has actually won a fair number of awards. 

Despite the name, this is a Thai restaurant that survives largely on the basis of its carry out business. 



Campus is not far away, to the southeast, just southeast of Thunderbird School of Global Management. Unlike 

Thunderbird, it is much more of a commuter campus, but still a source of high energy students. 

The dangers of such an unfocused and undersized project are apparent as of 2011, since there are at least seven vacant 

spaces available in this project—approximately 15% of the total tenant space. Five of the spaces are in the 953-961 sf 

range, one is 1,261 sf and the largest is 4,363 sf. Rents are very negotiable, as the project has little leverage and is in fact 

desperate for tenants. One of the former tenants was the Stalking Moon Bookstore, which specialized in comics and 

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movie posters. In the past, North 59 Avenue may have carried more traffic, but as of 2011, traffic volume is relatively 

modest. Likewise, Greenway is a major east-west street, but it ends approximately 1.5 miles to the west at the Arizona 

Canal. To the east, Greenway stretches across the metropolitan area all the way to Scottsdale Road and actually 

provides access, from the west, to the very successful Kierland Commons project . 

SPCI’s assessment is that the project was too small to effectively capitalize on its location and that the lack of at least a 

supermarket anchor makes this project largely irrelevant for most residents of the trade area. The project is not designed in 

way that could make it an attractive student “hang out” as a university village town center. 


BAYLESS SHOPPING CENTER 


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This is yet another old, neighborhood shopping center. It is located on the northeastern corner of North 59 Avenue 

and Greenway Blvd. At the same intersection, on the northwestern corner, is Greenway Promenade and on the 

southwestern corner is Greenway Plaza. The Thunderbird School of Global Management is located to the immediate 

th 

south, across Greenway (although the main entrance is farther to the south on North 59 Avenue). Bayless was 

developed by the Bayless Investment and Trading Company, with 70,809 sf. of GLA. This was back in 1953, making this 

project one of the area’s first shopping centers....and it looks and feels very much like that. This is an L-shaped, open 

air, one-level project with 350 parking spaces and approximately two dozen tenant spaces. Two of the more solid 

tenants are Ray’s Famous New York Style Pizza and the Erawan Restaurant, both of which have been in the project for 

many years. The project has flirted with high vacancy rates over the last decades and currently this is still the case. 

This is yet another small and non-descript project with vacant space that deserves to be vacant. As is the case with its 

commercial neighbor to the west, Greenway Promenade, there really is no reason for students to spend much time here, there 

is not enough of an ambiance or environment to attract students. The higher level of commercial “action” is further north on 

Bell Road or farther south on Peoria Avenue. 


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91 AVENUE AND UNION HILLS SHOPS 


This is more or less a working name for this project as SPCI could not determine the name of the project and none of 

the tenants (or at least their employees seemed to know either). This is a small neighborhood shopping center, built in 

st 

1995, and situated on the northeastern corner of Union Hills Road and North 91 Avenue. It is anchored by a Fresh 

and Easy grocery store. It is a one-level, open air project of 61,112 sf. It is an L-shaped project with a Walgreen’s on 

the southwestern corner of the property. To the southwest, diagonally across the intersection, is one of the two Peoria 

Plaza projects (!), this one being the Fry’s Peoria Plaza (as opposed to the Albertson’s Peoria Plaza which is further to 

the south on Bell Road). Supposedly there is one space available here (1,226 sf.), with an asking minimum rent of 

$15.00-16.00/sf. (there appears to be more space available, at least three spaces). The owner is, however, offering some 

number of months of free rent and a TI allowance. 

FLETCHER HEIGHTS PLAZA 

Once North 83 Avenue crosses Beardsley, north of the SR-101, it changes its name and becomes West Lake Pleasant 

rd 

Parkway. Approximately a quarter mile northwest of this intersection are two shopping centers, facing each other. On 

the southeast corner of Fletcher Way and Lake Pleasant Parkway is Fletcher Heights Plaza, a small, neighborhood 

shopping center. Across the street is Fletcher Heights Marketplace. The Heights project consists of several different 

one-level buildings and pads (Wells Fargo) and has been divided into parcels and sold. The largest building is 6,500 sf 

and is currently mostly vacant (6,232 sf.), with four tenant spaces that are, respectively, 1,246 sf., 1,416 sf., 1,400 sf. and 

2,170 sf. Asking rent for each is $22.00/sf. While the demographics in the area are very good, this seems rather high 

considering that the action is across the street and that there is no major anchor in the Heights project. 


LAKE PLEASANT PROMENADE 


Lake Pleasant Promenade is a very small and new neighborhood shopping center of 14,220 sf. in Peoria. The center is 

located on the northwestern corner of North Lake Pleasant Road and Beardsley Road. Lake Pleasant Road is the 

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prolongation of North 99 Avenue, which switches its name at the intersection with Beardsley. This retail project is not 

to be confused with another small, but newer, project of the same name, on the northwestern corner of Jomax Road and 

Lake Pleasant Parkway, which is farther to the north. This is a one level, open air, single building project with a lot of 

small tenant spaces available (nine), totaling 11,284 sf. There is a Walgreen’s on the southern end of the project, 

physically and visually part of the project but separately owned by the drug store chain. To the immediate north are two 

multi-tenant, commercial office buildings (Sun Grove Professional Plaza Condominiums). Across North Lake Pleasant 

Road is Ventana Lakes Village Center, a neighborhood shopping center anchored by Basha’s supermarket. The new 

Camino Lago Marketplace with a Wal-Mart is approximately a quarter mile farther to the north. 

Spaces range from 991 sf. up to 1,600 sf. One of them used to house Rosati’s Pizza. All of the spaces are long and 

narrow. The current tenants are only a nail salon and a medical office (1,600 sf.). Asking rents are $21.00/sf which 

seems high given the location and amount of vacancy in the area, but the brokers do admit to being willing to be 

aggressive to close a deal. 


LAKE PLEASANT PROMENADE II 


This Lake Pleasant Promenade is a DeRito Partners development on nine acres situated on the northwestern corner of 

Jomax Road and Lake Pleasant Parkway in the farther northwestern quadrant of the metropolitan area. This is part of 

Peoria. The project extends west to Pleasant Valley Road. The anchor in this L-shaped neighborhood center is a Fresh 

and Easy. There are six structures here—one anchor, two buildings of small tenants and three pads, surrounded by 

surface parking. The project, completed in 2011, does have a small (two-level, medical office) commercial component, 

so it is technically a mixed-use project. This is a new generation of neighborhood shopping center, with more attention 

being paid to landscaping, signage, illumination and articulation of building surfaces, facades and heights. There are 

quite a number of small tenant spaces available, but given that the project has been open a few months, it is somewhat 

early for an assessment. Rents are very negotiable. 

To the south will be the 48 acre Peoria Regional Medical Center. South of the Medical Center property are two new 

power centers, Lake Pleasant Pavilion South (Target, Bed Bath & Beyond) and Lake Pleasant Town Center (Home 

Depot, Kohl’s, Best Buy). 

The developers assert that they are serving 123,000 residents in the trade area....which must mean that the boundaries 

are widely drawn because this is the northwestern-most project in the entire metropolitan area and there are essentially 

almost no residents living to the northeast, north, northwest or west of the site at this time. 


LAKE PLEASANT TOWNE CENTER 


This is the largest project in the far northwest corner of the metropolitan area. A large power center anchored by Home 

Depot, Kohl’s and Best Buy, the project is on the northwestern corner of Happy Valley Road and North Lake Pleasant 

Road in Peoria. While this is a “big box” center of 620,000 sf., on 65 acres of land, there is significant small store space 

here and at least 15 small spaces are officially available for lease. Rents are very negotiable, not surprising since this is a 

new project. Vacant spaces range from 1,069 sf. up to 4,525 sf. Long term build out in this area calls for at least 62,000 

housing units to be built in 17 different master planned communities. 


VENTANA LAKES VILLAGE CENTER 


This is a newer, small, traditional neighborhood shopping center anchored by a Basha’s supermarket. The project is 

located on the northeastern corner of North Lake Pleasant Road and Beardsley Road. Across the street to the west is 

the Lake Pleasant Promenade project. The Ventana Lakes project is a little more interesting than many of its 

colleagues, as there is some variation in the roof lines and some architectural articulation visible here. There are also a 

number of smaller tenant spaces vacant, at least four...somewhat larger than is typical for this format of shopping center 

(2,071 sf., 2,089 sf., 3,596 sf., and 4,437 sf.). Rents are very negotiable. The project has 80,000 sf. of GLA with Basha’s 

occupying perhaps 48,000 sf. of that total. Basha’s is in the middle of the project, with two wings of in-line stores 

spreading out to the north and south. All the stores face towards North Lake Pleasant Road. There are four pads along 

North Lake Pleasant Road....the northernmost is the Snappy Auto Spa, which faces across to the Sun Grove 

Professional Plaza Condos. 


NORTH CANYON RANCH CENTER 


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This is a small, neighborhood shopping center located on the northeastern corner of North 39 Drive and West Pinnacle 

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Peak Road in Glendale. Pinnacle Peak Road is essentially north 59 Avenue, as Pinnacle Peak Road “bends around” 

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and goes from an east-west street to being the north-south 59 Avenue. North Canyon Ranch Center is a one level, 

open air, project with rather more landscaping than most similar projects of this format and size. The project sits on 

almost 5.4 acres and has 61,819 sf. of retail space and offers 314 parking spaces. There are 17 tenant spaces. Kimco is 

the current owner. Like many projects in the area, the valuable and highly visible corner was sold off to McDonald’s 

which owns their own pad. The project was meant to serve the nearby residential communities of Daybreak at North 

Canyon Ranch, Sunrise at North Canyon Ranch, Village at North Canyon Ranch, Mountainview at North Canyon 

Ranch and Palm Estates. 

Tenants include a dentist, Nixon Chiropractic, a Starbuck’s, Tangible Tanning, Subway, JoJo’s Pizza, Animal Medical 

Center and Pina. This is a project that has struggled, as the anchor space of 42,504 sf. (Originally an Alpha Beta, later 

ABCO) has been vacant for several years. In addition, there are seven other tenant spaces available (1,120 sf., 1,319 sf., 

1,400 sf., 1,540 sf., 1,705 sf., 2,008 sf., and 2,841 sf.), although State Farm Insurance has recently taken one of the smaller 

spaces. Surviving tenants are largely those who can survive without the presence of a major anchor—services or fast 

food. 

There is a Domino’s Pizza to the immediate east of the project, but not part of it, and on the eastern side of North 36 th 

Avenue, a small industrial park (the majority of the tenants are non-industrial users). 

This is a tough project to make work well without an anchor, and the anchor size is one which many supermarkets now 

consider to be too small, and a specialty supermarket might find to be too large. 


HAPPY VALLEY TOWNE CENTER 


This is a huge power center located on the southeastern corner of I-17 and Happy Valley Road, across from the Shops at 

Norterra. Twenty Third Avenue forms a boundary on a third side. As such, the project has great visibility and great 

access. The project is large enough and “enhanced” enough that it could be considered to be a “power town” although 

it lacks the customary spine of restaurants that can be found at projects such as Desert Ridge and Tempe Marketplace. 

In terms of design, the buildings more or less surround a central parking field. 

This project is outside the primary trade area of the PSC, but SPCI is of the opinion that it should be possible to draw 

customers “down” from this area, given the tenant mix of this project and the blandness of its restaurants. There is little 

here to “pull” customers up. Depending on the route taken, it is approximately 13 miles+ from this project to the PSC, 

but there is relatively little traffic and any local resident in Norterra is going to have to leave the area anyway if he or she 

(or they) are looking for an interesting shopping experience or meal. 

The twin anchors here in this 800,000-sf. project are a Wal-Mart SuperCenter and a Lowe’s home improvement 

superstore. Other “boxes” include Barnes & Noble, Cost Plus World Market, Dollar Tree, Old Navy, Party City, Petco, 

Pier One Imports, Ross Dress for Less, Sports Chalet, Staples, Tilly’s, TJ Maxx, Pier One Imports and Ulta. There are 

a number of small, service oriented retailers, for a total of current 48 tenants. Most of the restaurants are on pads 

facing or near Happy Valley Road and are surrounded by parking (similar to Arrowhead Fountains Center). 

The food component is less than strong, although there are plenty of options—but very little that is distinctive or 

unusual—Applebee’s, Bajio’s Mexican Grill, Carl’s Jr., Coldstone Creamery, Greek Pita, Jersey’ Mikes, L&L Hawaiian 

BBQ, Logan’s Roadhouse, Olive Garden, Panda Express, Ray’s Pizza, Red Robin, Shane’s Rib Shack, Starbuck’s and 

TGIFriday’s. There was a chance to create an exciting collection of restaurants here, but it appears that a very risk 

aversive, standard strategy was adopted so that the restaurants that are here are essentially the same ones that can be 

found throughout the valley. The restaurant mix seems somewhat “out of sync” with the surrounding demographics and 

there is nothing here that would qualify as better-quality dining—although one would not normally expect that in a 



shopping center with a Lowe’s and a Wal-Mart, and yet the food variety is also less than what might be expected—US 

fast food, Asian, Hawaiian, Italian, Mexican, Texan. Still, given how the project markets itself, it might have been 

expected that a more interesting mix of restaurants could have been signed. There are some smaller tenant spaces 

available, but the strength of this project is its larger tenants. 

The project is marketing itself as having the “the ultimate shopping experience” and in fact does offer a more interesting 

environment than the typical power center. There has been an attempt to blend a mix of specialty shopping, restaurants 

and entertainment venues with some interesting signage, a variety of colors and more landscaping than the average 

power center. However, the non-dining entertainment components of this project are relatively weak. The restaurants, 

in the opinion of SPCI, are not really grouped together in any meaningful way, but scattered around the project. “At 

the end of the day,” this is still a power center despite its attempts to take on some “lifestyle” elements. There is little 

that is distinctive about this project and quite harshly, nothing that would encourage someone who does not live nearby 

to make a trip “up” to this project. 


THE SHOPS AT NORTERRA 


This is a project located on the northeastern corner of I-17 and Happy Valley Road. Across Happy Valley Road to the 

south is the large Happy Valley Towne Center. The Shops at Norterra opened in 2008, as the recession was beginning, 

and this has impacted the project. The Shops at Norterra project tries hard to be an “authentic” town center and in fact, 

there is a central paseo lined with smaller stores on both sides, including some restaurants and some lifestyle (Bath and 

Body Works, Coldwater Creek, Victoria’s Secret) retailers. There is a landscaped traffic circle. Compared to its 

neighbor, Happy Valley Towne Center, The Shops at Norterra certainly offer a more interesting shopping environment 

from a physical and visual point of view. However, the project is, in the opinion of SPCI, a long way from Scottsdale 

Quarter or Kierland Commons. 

Unfortunately, the presence of a large number of “big box” retailers, mixed in around the project, tends to destroy the 

effort to create an interesting, intimate ambiance and some kind of fascinating pedestrian experience. From the 

perspective of SPCI, this project ends up being “just another” shopping center with lots of surface parking and lots of 

“big box” retailers (Best Buy, BevMo, Dick’s). BevMo has its strong base of support but would be better positioned 

across the street (but Wal-Mart likely objected). The big boxes might have been enhanced architecturally in a way that 

broke down the large facades into smaller segments, or at least made them interesting in a visual manner (as at The 

Grove in Los Angeles) but that was not done here. The result is rather ordinary in the opinion of SPCI and represents a 

missed opportunity to have done something significant. 

The original goal was to develop a 350,000 sf “lifestyle center,” but the execution of this project appears to have fallen 

victim to an indiscriminate tenant leasing strategy (as at Happy Valley Town Center) that simply aimed to fill space and 

ignored efforts to create synergy or find interesting merchants and restaurants. BevMo may be a certain lifestyle, but 

not a common tenant at leading lifestyle centers. Best Buy can be a shadow anchor (Santana Row, Reston Town 

Center) but when combined with too many other “big boxes,” tends to seriously dilute the pedestrian ambiance of a 

project. It is not clear to SPCI how tenants like Men’s Wearhouse fit into the lifestyle concept here. Also, Charming 

Charlie’s, while an interesting store visually, is focused on selling inexpensive clothing, jewelry and accessories and is a 


40 


cut below the kind of retailer that usually populates a lifestyle center and would be a better fit across Happy Valley 

Road, in the Happy Valley Towne Center. 40 

A Harkins 14-plex anchors the western end of the project, closest to I-17. This is not necessarily a bad thing, yet the way 

the project has been designed, the cinemas more or less are by themselves and do not really contribute much in terms of 

synergy to the rest of the project and are too far from most of the restaurants to promote any kind of pedestrian 

experience, especially given the weather that prevails for much of the year. 

There is a Dick’s at the eastern end, but instead of forming a counterpoint to Harkins and truly anchoring the eastern 

end of the project, the store faces south onto surface parking lots instead of west. Even if the “other side” is developed 

in a future phase, it is difficult to effectively merchandise such a long store front and create a proper pedestrian flow. 

SPCI is unclear how Barnes and Noble could have been allowed to end up “across the street” in Happy Valley Towne 

Center, since the bookstore would have been a much better fit in this project. While the restaurants here are better than 

across the street (Applebee’s, Olive Garden, Logan’s Roadhouse, Red Robin), there is not (yet) anything very special at 

this project, but rather a preponderance of national chains—Chipotle Grill, Johnny Rocket’s, PF Chang’s (on a pad at 

the entrance) and Paradise Bakery Café. Pitta Jungle is due to arrive soon. Other than PF Chang’s, however, residents 

wanting a finer dining experience will still need to pilgrimage east to Kierland Commons or Scottsdale Quarter. 

The project had a soft opening, and has continued to slowly lease stores, while some of the initial tenants have closed 

and moved on. This has made it difficult for the project to establish a strong image in the market. 

Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American Eagle, American Girl Place, Ann Taylor, Ann Taylor Loft, Anthropologie, Apple, 

Banana Republic, Bath and Body Works, Brighton Collectibles, Chico’s, Coldwater Creek, Crabtree & Evelyn, Crate and Barrel, Eddie 

Bauer, Gap, Gap Kids, H&M, J. Crew, J. Jill, Jos. A. Bank, Lucky Brand, Orvis, Pottery Barn, Restoration Hardware, Sephora, Soma, 

Stella McCartney, Sur la Table, Talbot’s, Tommy Bahama, Uniqlo, Urban Outfitters, White House/Black Market, Williams Sonoma, Z 

Gallerie, Zara. 



SPCI concludes that the residents of Norterra, who might be looking for a more satisfying shopping or dining 

experience, still need to leave their area to find such an experience....because they won’t find it here. Norterra fails to 

meet the expectations in terms of providing seriously competitive shopping and dining experiences. There is 

considerable vacant space available, especially among the smaller shops. 


BELL MAR 

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This is a rather strange retail project which opened in 2009 (although the high level of vacancy gives it that “just opened” 

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look), on the northeastern corner of West Bell Road and North 114 Avenue (Avenue of the Arts) in Surprise. The 

center is approximately four-and-a-half miles west of the PSC property, although it seems much further when driving. 

This project is more or less at the eastern edge of Surprise. Developed by Estera Development, this is a neighborhood 

center with some aspects of a town center but without the customary town center layout. There are a series of buildings 

arrayed around a central plaza, with parking spread around the project. There is second level commercial office space 

on the upper level of the main building. Yet the project lacks a true pedestrian orientation and navigating around the 

project is difficult and confusing. SPCI finds the overall layout and design to be “strange” and certainly not consumer 

friendly. 

Tenants are a broad mixture of whomever the project management seems to have been able to find—Barnaby Street 

41 

Shoppes (a collection of smaller tenants organized as an anchor almost like a public market ) , 5 and Diner Delux, Bite 

Me Breads and Cookies, Hurricane Grill, Imagine Salon, Jeff Speakman’s Keno 5.0, Picazzo’s. The restaurants have 

terraces opening onto the central plaza and this section has some degree of ambiance but it is poorly connected to the 

rest of the project. More than half of the project remains vacant. The highlight is a 50 foot mast imitating a ship’s 

sailing mast. The 72,500 sf. mixed-use project opened in the fall of 2009, in the midst of the recession....not the best of 

timing. Consequently, leasing has been slow and there obviously was not enough pre-leasing. Asking rents range from 

$9-20.00/sf but are very negotiable, as this is a peripheral location, even within Surprise. 

The project anticipated a seven mile ring trade area....which means that the area included would extend all the way east 

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to North 59 Avenue in Glendale. For SPCI, this is difficult to believe that a project of this small size, with an 

The inspiration s the Barnaby Street fair in London, England..but in the opinion of SPCI, something was lost in the translation. There 

are approximately two dozen smaller merchants, mostly arts and crafts related, collected here...the number has fluctuated considerably 

since the opening. 



undistinguished tenant mix and no major or special anchors, could actually pull customers past the retail concentration 

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at North 83 Avenue. Rather, SPCI sees the “flow” going east from Surprise (and Sun City) towards the SR-101 and 

rd 

the Bell Road/North 83 Avenue intersection, or else farther west to the Surprise Marketplace and Surprise Towne 

Center. 


WESTGATE CITY CENTER 

42 

43 

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The two most noteworthy facts about this project, from the perspective of SPCI, are that this is definitely and without 

question, the most “different” and unique retail project in the West Valley. It does not look like any other retail project 

in the entire West Valley. The huge Water Dance Plaza is an attraction by itself, by far the largest interactive fountain 

display in the greater Phoenix area. The other fact is that the lender foreclosed on the project in 2011. This was very 

42 

much a “build it and they will come” venture involving the developer, The Ellman Companies and the initial investors. 

Westgate City Center is located in Glendale, just east of SR-101 (Exit 7) and south of Glendale Avenue, between North 

th st 

95 Avenue and North 91 Avenue. The project is situated approximately one mile south of the Peoria Crossings 

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project. On the northeastern corner of North 95 Avenue and Glendale Avenue is a large, free standing Cabela’s sports 

superstore. It might be a legitimate question to ask why Cabela’s is not part of the Westgate City Center project, where 

43 

it could provide some real synergy, instead of across Glendale Avenue. Ellman definitely missed an opportunity here. 

Located on 33 acres, this is a multi-phase, mixed-use project, or at least it was designed that way. Phase I, which opened 

in 2006, included 510,000 sf. of retail space, primarily one level, in an open air, pedestrian oriented format. The anchors 

at the southern end were the University of Phoenix stadium, home to the Arizona Cardinals National Football League 

44 

team, and the (currently) Jobing.com Arena, home to the Phoenix Coyotes professional ice hockey team. The ice 

Rebekah Sanders, “Westgate City Center Scheduled for Auction,” Arizona Republic, June 21, 2011; “Wait Over for Westgate City 

Center,” azcentral.com, Nov. 15, 2006 and Brianne Gloski, “Best in the West,” Shopping Center Business, May, 2006. 

At Branson Landing, in Missouri, Bass Pro Shops is phsycially part of the project. At Victoria Gardens, in Rancho Cucamonga 

(California), the Bass Pro Shop there may sit across the parking lot from Macy’s, but it is at least possible to walk from one to another. 

Here at Westgate, that is not really an option except for the most physically fit and die hard athlete. 

The Phoenix Suns NBA team plays at US Airways Center (formerly America West Arena), in central Phoenix. 



45 

hockey franchise has struggled ever since it came to Phoenix in 1996. On May 5, 2009, the Phoenix Coyotes filed for 

bankruptcy. The team is now owned by the NHL, which is seeking to find a local owner to take over the team. The idea 

was that the sports venues would act as anchors for the project. 

The reality has worked out differently. While the project draws well whenever there is a game at one of the two venues, 

the rest of the time, the project is very deserted as there is relatively thin commercial or residential development in the 

vicinity. There are relatively few football games per year, the vast majority of the time, the stadium is not in use. The ice 

hockey team has struggled to attract fans and attendance has been less than expected. There are other multiplex 

cinemas, so the trade area for the AMC Gateway is relatively small. Thus, the anchors at both ends are not driving 

traffic back and forth along the main axis of the center. While the project has tried to be pedestrian-friendly, the scale of 

the anchors, the signage and the fountains tends to overpower the individual pedestrian who ventures to walk along the 

central spine. The concentration of restaurants is one of the more interesting collections in the West Valley, and while 

the variety could be greater, nonetheless, the concentration of power is significant—Calico Jack’s Cantina, Hells Half 

Acre, Johnny Rockets, Kabuki, McFadden’s, Magaritavilla, Mama Gina’s Pizzeria, Moe’s Saddle Ranch Chop House, 

Shane’s Rib Shack, Southwest Grill, The Shout House, The Yard House. Altogether, there are close to thirty bars, 

restaurants and fast food operations here. Still, while the sports fan has many choices, there is not much here to draw 

other customers when there are no games on the schedule. 

Full build out of the project is scheduled for a target size of 740,000 sf. of retail....which would make it one of the larger 

projects in the West Valley. The project as is, clearly needs more conventional retail power, in the opinion of SPCI....but 

it may be difficult to recruit more retailers until more residential rooftops are visible from the project, since the fans 

coming to games is not enough to support the project. Phase II of Westgate City Center, which opened in 2007, added a 

12-level higher-quality Renaissance Hotel and 440 residential units—Alexan Apartments and the Westgate Townhomes. 

This has not been enough to push the project to success. 

45 

The team began in 1972 as the Winnipeg Jets in the World Hockey Association. In 1979, the team joined the NHL. 


46 

See Baltimore’s Power Plant, for example. 


Of the 52 tenant spaces, at least 20 are vacant after five years....a major reason why the lenders foreclosed on the project. 

Some of the spaces will be difficult to lease, ever, given their location within the project. 

There is a possibility that the Tanger Factory Outlets Inc will re-locate to the land at the western edge of Westgate, 

which is currently undeveloped and used for overflow parking for special events. It would accommodate 75 stores. 

Tanger malls include outlet stores for retailers and brands including Abercrombie & Fitch, Adidas, American Eagle, 

Ann Taylor, Forever 21, Nike, Brooks Brothers, Coach, Calvin Klein, Disney store, Old Navy, Hollister, Charlotte Russe 

and Talbots. Tanger (NYSE:SKT) already has 34 outlet malls in 22 states. 

Aside from the project’s current financial difficulties, SPCI does not really see this as a competitive project for the proposed 

development at PSC....baseball fans are not likely to drive to Westgate for a meal and then get back in their car and drive 

north and repark to watch a baseball game. A review of the many entertainment centers built over the last two decades would 

indicate that it is very difficult to make these projects a financial success, and that very specific conditions are required to have 

46 

any chance at success. Even among the few successful examples, more than one attempt was often required. There is a lot 

to be learned from the mistakes at Gateway, in particular the need to not over rely on sports to drive customers to the 

project....it must be able to “stand on its own” as a competitive shopping and dining destination without the stadium....so that 

the stadium provides “extra” sales but is not crucial for a successful outcome. The value here may be that some of the tenant 

might want to relocate to a better environment (The Yard House, for example). The project’s financial status seems to be 

getting worse from week to week. 


SURPRISE TOWNE CENTER 

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Most do not appear to have been previously occupied. 


Approximately eight miles west of the PSC site is the very large Surprise Towne Center, the largest retail project in 

Surprise. This is quite some distance to the west, as evidenced by the fact that the project is bounded on the west by 

North Litchfield Road. The property forms a triangle, with Bell Road forming the southern boundary and Grand 

Avenue forming the eastern boundary. This is an open air, one level, U-shaped power center of 535,063 sf. The project 

opened in 2002. Along with its twin to the south, Surprise Marketplace, the development encompassed 94 acres. 

This is truly a power center, with a Home Depot (107,920 sf.), a Wal-Mart SuperCenter (225,190 sf.), Office Max (23,487 

sf.), Petsmart (19,581 sf.), Michael’s (23,888 sf.) and a vacant space of 28,017 sf. (former Linen’s n’ Things). In addition, 

the project has a Pier One Imports, a large Famous Footwear and a Sleep America. There are some two dozen smaller 

tenant spaces and restaurants in the project, concentrated along the eastern side and in the south of the project. There 

47 

are a large number of vacancies among the smaller tenant spaces nearest to Bell Road, almost a dozen although the 

leasing broker is reporting only one space as being actually available. Home Depot occupies a box on the western side of 

the project, Wal-Mart is located at the far north end of the project, set back a considerable distance from Bell Road. 

There is a free-standing Kohl’s to the immediate west of the project but it is not part of the project. 

This is truly a huge power center and except for the well conditioned athlete, difficult to walk around or from one end to 

another, even if the weather was conducive. The various restaurants are scattered throughout the project rather than 

concentrated, and by and large, the restaurants are modest ones (Applebee’s, Fazoli’s, IHOP, Streets of New York). There is 

somewhat less fast food (a Jack in the Box, Pizza Hut and a Taco Bell) here than at many of the Bell Road projects in Peoria 

and Glendale. This is a basic and traditional power center, despite the name, offering discounted merchandise and 

convenience in the form of ample surface parking located directly in front of the store entrances. It is very difficult to say that 

shopping here is enjoyable, as there is no real ambiance other than large asphalt parking lots. The companion retail project to 



the immediate south, Surprise Marketplace, is also a power center, but has a slightly better ambiance. Overall, a resident of 

Surprise looking for an interesting or exciting shopping experience needs to leave Surprise. 


SURPRISE MARKETPLACE 


This is a companion power center to Surprise Towne Center. This is a linear, one-level, open air project, facing to Bell 

Road, with 355,000 sf. of GLA. Surprise Marketplace is located directly opposite the Surprise Towne Center, on the 

south side of Bell Road, west of Grand Avenue and east of West Point Parkway. This is a smaller project, but with a 

powerful tenant line up. There are eight larger stores and four restaurant pads plus a pad for AutoZone, and only a half 

dozen small, service tenants. The anchor on the western end of the project is Target (126,000 sf.), and on the eastern 

end, Lowe’s (135,197 sf.). Other “big boxes” are Bed Bath & Beyond (25,221 sf.), Barnes and Noble (24,865 sf.), Lane 

Bryant (very large for a Lane Bryant, at 5,002 sf.), Ross Dress for Less (30,244 sf.), Best Buy (30,507 sf.) and Ulta 

(10,638 sf.). On the far eastern end is Rue 21 which took several smaller spaces. Restaurants include Chick Fil A, Olive 

Garden (6,805 sf.) and Red Lobster (7,170 sf.). The architect was the Butler Design Group. 

There is more landscaping here than across the street at Surprise Towne Center, as here there are quite a few mature 

palm trees. The area is small, but there is a good amount of landscaping around Red Lobster and Olive Garden and an 

effort was made to create some ambiance at least in that section of the project. There may not be a major pedestrian 

experience to be gained here, but the project visually is more appealing than its rival across Bell Road. There is a 

Comfort Inn at the eastern end of the project. The project faces either Bell Road or Grand Avenue, while Surprise 

Towne Center turns its back on Grand Avenue and the stores on that side face inward to the rest of the center. 


LAND USE OPTIONS

SURVEY OF OPTIONS 


Chapter 5 examined the supply of retail space, but the next several pages will examine the retail situation conceptually, as 

well as other, non-retail, options for use. There are a variety of shopping centers and these different formats are 

evaluated below. There often is not a sharp difference among these different categories of shopping center formats, 

especially when considering mixed-use or multiple use developments. Rather, one format “shades” off into another 

format. 

G What is the very wide universe of possible development options (with/without retail formats/types of shopping 

centers and/or “big box” retailers) for this particular location? 

G What types/formats of shopping centers might work best for the variety of project options? A retail format that is 

possible, may in fact not be a good choice in terms of strategy or be compatible with other mixed-use components. 

G How much property is required, ideally, for each development option? 

G What are the basic characteristics of each option and what consumer “values” do they serve? 

Within each format, the classic examples of shopping centers tend to be clearly established and very easily identifiable. 

Today, a lot of “mixing and matching” of characteristics occurs as developers attempt to gain a significant and 

sustainable competitive advantage. This has resulted in a lot of hybrid projects. Also, projects can change, and evolve, 

over time. 

- For example, The Spectrum in Irvine, California is now more like an open-air regional fashion mall, than 

an entertainment center. Originally, this project was just a small entertainment center anchored by a 



multiplex cinema, several restaurants, a Barnes and Noble bookstore, a food court, Game Works, and 

Blockbuster Music. Now, the project has a Macy’s, a Nordstrom, and a Target as anchors, as well as many 

specialty retailers. 

- Coco Walk in Florida was once a lifestyle center but has evolved into more of an entertainment center as 

the percentage of restaurant space has increased and the number of apparel retailers has declined. 

- The Waterside Shops at Pelican Bay in Naples (Florida) started as a lifestyle center, but now SPCI 

considers it to be an outdoor, open air, regional fashion mall since Nordstrom was added to the project and 

the original Saks Fifth Avenue was enlarged. 

- Kierland Commons at Scottsdale started as a small village town center but has been growing into a larger, 

regional town center with a strong and growing mixed-use component. 

- The Shops at Saddle Creek, an (if not the) iconic “lifestyle center” is becoming a mixed-use project. 

Recently, there has been a pronounced trend towards more mixed-use development, as opposed to single-use 

development. This chapter will examine these options as well. 

SPCI’s categorizations are to be seen as a tool to attempt to force more thinking about potential strategies, sizes, 

and sites, and not as absolute, unbending rules. 



TYPE OF 

SHOPPING CENTER 

Convenience 

Center 

CONCEPT RETAIL SPACE GLA IN SF 

(INCLUDING ANCHORS) 

Small projects, 

sometimes 

without an 

anchor. 

Generally have a 

7/11, Circle K or 

similar 

convenience 

store as an 

anchor. 

Concept 

pioneered by La 

Mancha 

Development 

Co. in Los 

Angeles in 

1970s. 

Usually less than 15,000 

SF of retail tenant space. 

Most markets in the USA 

are “overrun” by a huge 

number of these projects. 


TOTAL PROPERTY 

SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

2.5 or less CERTAINLY FEASIBLE, BUT NOT 

RECOMMENDED. BY ITSELF, WOULD LEAVE 

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LAND VACANT. 

DELIVERS NO REAL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE. 

! Focus is on the ultimate in convenience—easy 

and quick “in and out.” 

! Often only 4-5 tenants, maximum is about ten. 

! Heavily service retail and fast-food-oriented. 

! Works best as an “in-fill” project on small 

parcels that are “left over” or on the site of a 

former house or small office or factory. 

! Lack of critical mass prevents dominance. 

Small trade area (less than a half kilometer). 

! Costly in terms of administrative time and 

effort. 

! Nice “fit” with Chick Fil-A to the 

north...but...so what? 



TYPE OF SHOPPING 

CENTER 

Neighborhood 

Center 

CONCEPT RETAIL SPACE GLA 

IN SF (INCLUDING 

ANCHORS) 

Pure convenience 

for local residents. 

This is a grocery 

store anchored 

shopping center, 

often (not always) 

with a drug store, or 

an office supply 

store or small 

sporting goods 

store. 

This would be most 

of the typical 

Albertson’s, Fry’s, 

Safeway projects, 

smaller projects 

without a major 

anchor. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

30,000 - 150,000 3-15 FEASIBLE, BUT NOT THE HIGHEST AND BEST USE 

OF THE LAND. NO SERIOUS COMPETITIVE 

ADVANTAGE. 

! Greater Phoenix has a lot of these. 

! These projects do best with high residential 

density. 

! This format must offer something of value to the 

customer— in this case, convenience. Therefore, 

project tenant mix must focus on “convenience” 

items and services—groceries, pharmaceutical 

products, eating and drinking enterprises, service 

retail, anything which makes life easier for nearby 

residents. 

! Relatively easy to do. 

! Convenience requires very easy and obvious 

ingress and egress from both interior of the site as 

well as around the periphery. 

! Neighborhood centers command a small trade 

area (generally one to three miles.) 




CENTER 

Community 

Center 


CONCEPT RETAIL SPACE GLA 

IN SF (INCLUDING 

ANCHORS) 

Better mixture of general 

merchandise plus 

convenience. 

Serves several 

neighborhoods. 

Older style of shopping 

center, generally anchored 

by a supermarket and a 

junior department store or 

large cinema, with a row of 

in-line shops in between, or 

by a large Wal-Mart, K- 

Mart of Target. Works 

best with one-level format 

and surface parking. 

This format offers 

convenience (in general). 

Can be enclosed, notenclosed, 

sheltered, or 

open-air—lot of flexibility 

in the design. Usually 

open-air in Phoenix. 

TOTAL 

PROPERTY SIZE 

IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

100,000 - 350,000 10-40 NOT FEASIBLE, ALSO NOT THE HIGHEST AND 

BEST USE OF THE LAND. AND NO REAL 

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE. 

! Relatively easy to do. Therefore, also easily 

copied. Greater Phoenix has a lot of these. 

! Requires relatively larger trade area (out to 5- 

7 miles, but depends on density). 

! Do best at a major intersection with high 

visibility, good frontage, and great access. 

! Works best with one-level format and surface 

parking. Works best with two strong anchors 

+ a multiplex cinema. 

! Can be indoor or open air or a combination. 

! Wal-Mart to the north on 83 , Target next 

rd 

door at North Valley Power Center. 




CENTER 

Power Center 

1 



Specific Retail 

Category; 

Dominant Anchor 

Stores (“Category 

Killers”) that are 

also “Big Boxes.” 

Few, if any, small 

tenants; 

Several possible 

variations. 

1 

First example in 

USA was in 1986, 

the Metro 280 

Mall by 

Terranomics near 

San Francisco. 

Recent: Quebec 

Square, Stapleton. 

250,000 - 850,000 

One super anchor store of 

at least 10,000 SF 

(discount department 

store, hypermarket, 

membership warehouse 

club, or 

home improvement 

superstore) 

May include 3-4 smaller, 

category-specific anchors 

(category killers) of 

2,000-2,500 SF 

Minimum number of 

small stores/side tenants 

(less than 10,000 SF) 



SIZE IN ACRES 

25 - 120 NOT FEASIBLE. 

COMMENTS 

! Site is not really large enough for a 

competitive power center. 

! Would not deliver any kind of strategic or 

competitive advantage of any kind. 

! Bell Road in this area is “overrun” with power 

centers...North Valley Power Center, 

Arrowhead Crossing, Arrowhead 

Marketplace, etc. 

! Format is difficult to do well in an area that is 

trending to be (or wants to be) more dense. 

! Serve regions, not communities or 

neighborhoods. 

! Format needs major “critical mass” of retail to 

succeed. This can not be achieved by small 

stores alone. 

! Focus is on convenience and quick ingress and 

egress for customer + low discount prices. 

! Horizontal, not vertical, type of project. 

A store can be both a “Category Killer” and a “Big Box.” A Category Killer is the dominant retailer in its “category.” In the USA, The 

Gap, Banana Republic, The Limited, and Victoria’s Secret are Category Killers but are not “Big Boxes.” Home Depot and Lowe’s are 

also category killers, but are also “Big Boxes.” A retailer might be a Big Box but not necessarily be a Category Killer—Just for Feet 

was an example. Toys R Us was one of the original big box category killers, until Wal-Mart took it out of the competition. 




CENTER 

Power Center 

(Cont.) 



Extremely popular 

format in the USA, 

also spread to 

Europe in the 

1990s. 

Often “teamed” up 

with a regional 

fashion mall—two 

projects in “one.” 

Chula Vista 

Crossing & Palm 

Promenade (Chula 

Vista); Rio Vista 

and Fenton 

Marketplace (San 

Diego); Edgewater 

(Monterey, Calif.); 

Centre on 17 th 

(Santa Ana); 

Anaheim Plaza 

(Anaheim). 

250,000 - 850,000 

Arrowhead Towne Center 

is surrounded by power 

centers. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

25-120 ! Works best with lots of surface parking, 

not with structured garage parking. 

! Rent structure requires very cheap land 

and cheap, low-rise, unenclosed 

construction. 

! Some attempts to stack big boxes on top 

of each other in New York City...that is 

not the environment here in Peoria. 



TYPE OF 

SHOPPING 

CENTER 

Lifestyle 

Center 



Hybrid of specialty 

center with 

community or 

neighborhood 

center; major focus 

on retailers 

providing 

merchandise for 

homes, especially 

the kitchen, 

bedroom, and 

bathroom; mixed 

with upscale 

retailers and 

restaurants. Still 

evolving concept. 

150,000 - 500,000 

Includes at least 50,000 sf 

of upscale specialty retail. 

Generally offer stores like 

Bed Bath & Beyond, 

Crate and Barrel, Pier 

One Imports, Pottery 

Barn, Restoration 

Hardware, Williams 

Sonoma, with Ann Taylor, 

Ann Taylor Loft, Banana 

Republic, Chicos, Eddie 

Bauer, Gap, J. Jill, 

Talbots, Victoria’s Secret. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

15-50 MARGINALLY FEASIBLE 

! Needs strong demographics. 

! Needs to be near (in the middle of) 

residential areas of very good demographics 

(upscale) or very aspirational areas. The 

demographics here are not quite what is 

needed. 

! Retailers tend to work together as a group. 

! Generally follows a regional fashion mall and 

fills in categories that the mall does not 

include. Arrowhead Towne Center is 

vulnerable. 



TYPE OF 

SHOPPING 

CENTER 

Lifestyle 

Center 

(Cont.) 



Major focus on 

ambiance with 

street furniture, lots 

of landscaping, 

fountains, 

ornamentation, 

architectural details, 

etc. Original: Shops 

at Saddle Creek 

(Tenn). 

Examples: Promenade at 

Bonita Bay, Commons at 

Calabasas, The Grove at 

Farmers Market, Casa 

Paloma (Chandler, 

Arizona), Avenue at East 

Cobb (Norcross, Georgia), 

Shoppes at East Chase 

(Montgomery, Alabama), 

La Encantada (Tucson). 

The Shops at Carney Village 

(Scottsdale). 



SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

7 - 25 ! Would be the first of its kind in this part of 

the market. Generally higher quality than 

a town center. 

! Outdoor, not enclosed. Heavy emphasis on 

landscaping, illumination at night, and 

water features and different materials and 

store facades. 

! Does not need department store(s). 

! Strong restaurant and food component. 

! Often includes cinemas, and if so, always a 

large multiplex cinema. 

! Books and music usually a part. 




CENTER 

Entertainment 

Center 


CONCEPT RETAIL SPACE 

GLA IN SF 

(INCLUDING 

ANCHORS) 

Entertainment; Mega-plex 

cinemas, restaurants, music 

stores, book stores. Concept 

still evolving in USA. 

Examples include: CocoWalk 

(Coral Gables), Universal 

CityWalk (Los Angeles), 

Metereon (San Francisco), 

Showcase, Neonopolis (Las 

nd 

Vegas), 42 Street (New 

York), The Block (Orange), 

Hollywood & Highland, 

Sherman Oaks Galleria, 

Promenade at Howard 

Hughes Center (all Los 

Angeles), Power Plant 

(Baltimore), Block E 

(Minneapolis), Triangle 

Square (Costa Mesa), 

Kaleidoscope (Mission Viejo), 

Mercado (Palm Springs), 

Downtown Disney (Anaheim). 

100,000 - 

250,000+ 

TOTAL 

PROPERTY 

SIZE IN 

ACRES 

COMMENTS 

15-50 NOT FEASIBLE. DENSITY PROBLEM. 

! Entertainment centers tend to be regional in 

their drawing power and can pull from as far 

as 20+ miles. 

! Performs best in very dense, inner city, urban 

environment with high-rise offices and highrise, 

multi-family residential to be a success. 

! Needs to also be at or near a major tourist 

attraction to succeed. 

! Multiple hotels needed. 

! In contrast, a retail-entertainment mix has 

more “staying power” in the market and a 

longer “shelf life.” 

! Project can be easily “flanked” by another 

shopping center with entertainment, but more 

retail. 

! Must be “re-invented” every few years. 

Entertainment business is very fast-changing. 

! Many entertainment tenants pay low rents. 




CENTER 

Regional 

Fashion Mall/ 

Regional 

Fashion 

Center 



Wide range of 

general 

merchandise 

(GAFO) with a 

strong accent on 

fashion apparel; 

more of a 

destination than a 

convenience; 

typically enclosed. 

Serves the entire 

metropolitan 

area. Three or 

fewer major 

department 

stores. 

400,000-800,000+ 

Most of these projects in 

the Phoenix area have 

either been demolished, 

converted into another 

format, merged with their 

neighbor or enlarged over 

time. Biltmore Fashion 

Park is a good example of a 

survivor. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

Strategic Planning Concepts International 6-11 August, 2011 

40-100 

Projects have been 

done on as little as 5 

acres, but the cost is 

very high and special 

pre-conditions must 

exist. 

NO, ARROWHEAD TOWNE CENTER IS TO 

THE IMMEDIATE NORTH.. 

! Needs a lot of land. Site is not really large 

enough. 

! Regional fashion malls are ideally located 

at a major intersection with great visibility. 

! Need 250,000 qualified customers within 

20 minutes drive time. 

! Regional fashion malls should be in an 

area of good demographics. This way they 

are in close proximity to their customer 

base and have a good image because of 

their surrounding environment. 

! Indoor, enclosed project with a large 

number (70-250) of small specialty stores. 

! Difficult format to execute successfully, 

which tends to keep competitors to a 

minimum. 

! Format is well represented in the area with 

its larger cousin, the super regional fashion 

mall.


TYPE OF 

SHOPPING 

CENTER 

Super- 

Regional 

Mall/ 

Super- 

Regional 

Center 

CONCEPT RETAIL SPACE 

GLA IN SF 

(INCLUDING 

ANCHORS) 

Similar to a Regional Fashion 

Mall but with greater 

merchandise variety. Often 

serves a statewide area or very 

large metropolitan area. Has 

4 or more major department 

stores or at least 3 department 

stores and a major 

entertainment anchor. 

Often enclosed, often two or 

three levels: Mall of the 

Americas (Bloomington, 

Minnesota), West Edmonton 

Mall (Edmonton, Canada); 

Fashion Show (Las Vegas), 

Cherry Hill (New Jersey), 

King of Prussia 

(Pennsylvania); Mall del Norte 

(Laredo); North Star Mall 

(San Antonio), South Coast 

Plaza (Costa Mesa); Tyson’s 

Corner (Fairfax, Virginia). 

1,000,000-3,000,000 

Scottsdale Fashion 

Square, Chandler 

Fashion Center are 

national leaders, 

Arrowhead Towne 

Center is to the 

immediate north. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

60-150 NOT FEASIBLE. 

COMMENTS 

! Nowhere near enough land. 

! Need at least 500,000 qualified customers. 

! Essentially is a regional fashion mall on 

“steroids”—becomes a “fortress mall” due 

to size and gross sales. 

! Needs a lot of parking, more than the typical 

five spaces per100 sf of retail, and more like 

7 spaces per 1,000 sf of retail. 

! Not enough major anchor department store 

commitments available for a super regional 

mall. 

! Needs a major intersection. 

! Will require at least 500,000+ sf of small 

store space—that will be difficult to lease. 



TYPE OF 


Specialty 

Center 



Higher-end, upscale, 

fashion-oriented 

shopping center 

format. 

May not have an 

anchor department 

store but has very 

strong specialty stores, 

often including several 

category killers, or else 

very unusual and oneof-a-kind, 

successful 

local specialty stores: 

Americana Manhasset 

(New York), The 

Shops at the Forum, 

The Canal Shops at the 

Venetian, Desert 

Passages (all Las 

Vegas), Enderle Center 

(Tustin; Calif.), Galeria 

(Southdale, 

Minnesota), Atrium 

(Boston). 

80,000-250,000 

Lot of these along 

Scottsdale Road. The 

Borgata was one of the 

original models in the 

USA. 

Increasingly, these are 

filled with well known 

luxury brands. 



SIZE IN ACRES 


COMMENTS 

! Demographic support in this sector of the 

market is not really sufficient. 

! These projects do best when immediately 

adjacent to their target customers + close 

to a regional fashion mall. 

! These projects also do well in denselydeveloped 

areas with high-rise, high-quality 

corporate offices, high-quality hotels and 

restaurants, or in high-income suburbs. 

! Projects do better when following, not 

preceding, a nearby regional fashion mall. 

! This is a difficult format to make successful. 

Format requires strong resident 

demographics in the immediate vicinity and 

a strong visitor/tourist population that is 

already coming to/through the trade area. 

! Needs customers who have proven 

themselves to be consumers of high-end, 

high fashion, and designer specialty 

stores...project best suited is Biltmore 

Fashion Park. 




CENTER 

Festival 

Marketplace 



Focus is on leisure 

activities; tends to 

be very visitor and 

tourist-oriented; 

lots of restaurants 

with specialty retail 

and services in 

some sort of 

seriously themed 

environment. 

80,000-250,000 


Often situated on an old 

historical site or cultural 

location, often at or near a 

waterfront (Harbour Place 

in Baltimore, South Street 

Seaport in New York, 

Fanueil Hall in Boston, 

Bayside in Miami, Pike 

Marketplace in Seattle, 

Riverwalk in San Antonio, 

Riverwalk in New Orleans, 

Las Olas Waterfront in Ft. 

Lauderdale, Pier 39 in San 

Francisco, The Stockyards in 

Ft. Worth, Waterfront in 

Norfolk). Only the Rouse 

Company ever developed 

this format well in the USA. 

TOTAL 

PROPERTY 

SIZE IN 

ACRES 


COMMENTS 

! Very difficult to properly operate. Requires 

very large promotional and marketing budget 

and strong management discipline. 

! Requires high numbers of tourists and visitors 

to succeed, as well as local residents and office 

workers. 

! Requires high, local residential density in the 

trade area, generally high-rise residential units. 

! Works best on a site with very strong historical 

or cultural links, which provides authenticity. 

This site does not qualify. 

! Difficult to create artificially unless the site 

already has a strong “place” identity or image. 

! Generally requires good middle-class customer 

base with families willing to pay for the 

experience—not a problem here. 



TYPE OF 


Outlet Center Manufacturers’ 

discount outlet. 



Can include deep 

discounters and 

entertainment. 

Only two big 

developers left 

after M&A 

activity—Simon 

and Tanger. 

50,000 - 400,000 

Cabazon, Carlsbad, 

Camarillo along with The 

Citadel (City of 

Commerce) in the greater 

Los Angeles area; Las 

Americas and Las Viejas 

on fringe of San Diego. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

5 - 25 NO. 

COMMENTS 

! Retailer radius restrictions protect full price 

stores. 

! Needs very cheap land. 

! Difficult to execute in urbanized environment. 

! Generally works best in markets with regional 

fashion malls and specialty centers, where 

there is a high level of fashion name brand 

recognition and a demand for these brands, not 

cheap copies. 

! Not a high rent paying use; works best on very, 

very cheap land or land that no one else wants. 

! Requires very skilled management. 

! Deceptive...simple format but difficult to 

execute, requires marketing budget four to five 

times that of a regional fashion mall. . 




CENTER 

Mills/ 

Mega Outlet 

CONCEPT RETAIL SPACE GLA IN 

SF (INCL. ANCHORS) 

A super-sized 

shopping center—a 

hybrid of a gigantic 

manufacturers’ 

discount outlet 

combined with an 

entertainment center 

and “big box”, power 

center type retailers. 

Can include deep 

discounters as well as 

regular price 

merchants. Anne 

Arundel Mills, 

Arizona Mills, 

Franklin Mills, 

Grapevine Mills, 

Gurnee Mills, Katy 

Mills, Ontario Mills, 

Sawgrass Mills, Great 

Mall of the Bay Area, 

Dolphin Mall 

(Miami). 

150,000 - 200,000 

In general, only The 

Mills Corporation in 

the USA really 

mastered this formula. 

However, they 

overexpanded. Simon 

Property Group bought 

the portfolio. 



SIZE IN ACRES 


COMMENTS 

! Needs a lot of very cheap land. 

! Difficult to execute in urbanized 

environment—tend to be projects on the 

periphery of the market. 

! The Mills Corp experimented with an 

international project—in Spain. Helped 

make the company a historical footnote. 

! Not a high rent paying use; works best on 

very, very cheap land or land that no one 

else wants. 

! Area already has Arizona Mills...one such 

project is enough for this market. 



TYPE OF 

SHOPPING 

CENTER 

Village 

Town 

Center 


SF (INCLUDING 

ANCHORS) 

Hybrid, evolved in late 1980s. 

Combination of specialty 

center with community or 

neighborhood center and 

entertainment center; major 

focus is providing “town” 

social experience. 

Less emphasis on retail tenant 

mix (apparel for specialty 

centers, household goods for 

lifestyle center). 

Designed to provide “a place” 

that functions 

like a “Downtown,” 

with lots of ambiance 

(staggered, mid-rise 

storefronts), street furniture, 

landscaping, fountains, 

architectural details, different 

materials, textures, 

colors, and finishes. Generally 

less elaborate than a lifestyle 

center. 

75,000-300,000 

Classic example (from 

1921) is original 

Country Club Plaza in 

Kansas City, or also 

Highland Vilalge in 

Dallas. 

Classic examples: 

original Kierland 

Commons (Scottsdale, 

Arizona), Market 

Street (Woodlands, 

Texas); East 29 th 

Avenue Town Center 

(Stapleton); Main 

Street (Verado, 

Arizona); DC Ranch 

(Scottsdale, Arizona) 


TOTAL 

PROPERTY SIZE 

IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

20-40 FEASIBLE. HOWEVER, THE TRADE AREA WOULD 

BE VERY SMALL. 

! In order to maintain a sustainable competitive 

advantage, a village town center should ideally 

have 75,000 sf of GLA at least. 

! Flexible concept - not easily duplicated. 

! Can serve a variety of demographic profiles; 

demographic situation places restrictions on 

materials, fixtures, and finishes but design 

remains one of a “village/town” center. 

! Tend to be open-air projects. Can be sheltered 

but generally not enclosed. 

! Does not need department store(s). 

! Smaller cinemas can be an anchor. 

! Major dining (restaurant) component. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Regional 

Town Center 



(INCL. ANCHORS) 

Hybrid, evolved in 

late 1990s and 2000s. 

Combination of town 

center with a regional 

fashion mall; major 

focus is on providing a 

“town” social 

experience. 

Less emphasis on 

retail tenant mix 

versus other formats 

(apparel focus for 

specialty centers, 

household goods 

focus for lifestyle 

centers). 

300,000 - 1,000,000 

Classic example (from 1921) 

is current Country Club 

Plaza; later version is Easton 

Town Center in Columbus, 

Ohio. 

Examples are expanded 

Kierland Commons; Bowie 

Town Center (Bowie, 

Maryland), Northfield 

Stapleton (Colorado), 

Victoria Gardens (Rancho 

Cucamonga, California), 

East Shore (Spanish Forks, 

Alabama), Zona Rosa 

(Kansas City), The District 

at Green Valley Ranch 

(Henderson, Nevada), Los 

Vegas Town Center (Las 

Vegas). San-Tan Village in 

Gilbert. 

PROPERTY SIZE 

IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

40-100 FEASIBLE. SITE IS MORE OR LESS BETWEEN 

A VILLAGE AND A REGIONAL TOWN CENTER. 

! Flexible concept - not easily duplicated. 

! Designed to provide “a place” that 

functions like a “Downtown,” lots of 

ambiance, staggered, mid-rise storefronts, 

variety of facades, street furniture, 

landscaping, fountains, architectural details, 

different materials and finishes. More of 

an “urban grid” design than a linear 

“street.” 

! Larger than a village town center. 

! Lot of projects in USA “trying” to be town 

centers, but developers have “cut corners” 

or bastardized tenant mix with discounters, 

deep discounters and off-price retailers. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Regional 

Town Center 

(Cont.) 



Needs a region to 

serve; can pull from 

20 km. radius, so 

needs a really high 

visibility location with 

great access and good 

frontage. “Gateway” 

project. 

300,000 - 1,000,000 


Classic example (from 1921) 

is Country Club Plaza; later 

version is Easton Town 

Center in Columbus, Ohio. 

Examples are Bowie Town 

Center (Bowie, Maryland), 

Northfield Stapleton 

(Colorado), Victoria 

Gardens (Rancho 

Cucamonga, California), 

East Shore (Spanish Forks, 

Alabama), Zona Rosa 

(Kansas City), The District 

at Green Valley Ranch 

(Henderson, Nevada). 

PROPERTY SIZE 

IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

40-100 ! Can serve a variety of demographic profiles; 

demographics places restrictions on 

materials, fixtures, and finishes but design 

remains one of a multi-block “town” center. 

! Tend to be open-air projects - sheltered but 

not enclosed. 

! Very strong restaurant and food 

component. 

! Generally has one or two department stores 

as anchors. Can have more. Can also have 

none. 

! Usually has a large megaplex cinema. 



TYPE OF 


Power Town 



Hybrid, evolving 

in 2000s. 

Combination of 

power center with 

a town 

center—essentialy 

a town center 

with some “big 

box” power center 

type formats. 

Still a relatively 

untested format, 

several projects in 

design or 

construction 

phase. 

35,000 - 100,000 

Rapidly proliferating 

format in the USA—Long 

Beach Towne Center 

(Long Beach, Calif.), 

Cerritos Town Center 

(Cerritos, Calif.), The 

District (Tustin, 

California), Temple 

Marketplace (Tempe). 

Vestar is the dominant 

developer of this format in 

the USA. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

50-100+ NOT FEASIBLE. 

COMMENTS 

! There is not enough land here to 

accommodate this format of shopping 

center. 

! Another issue here is the availability of the 

big box anchors. Many of the big box 

anchors are already nearby. 

! Evolving concept: power center “mixed 

with” town center. Project usually has a 

membership warehouse club or home 

improvement superstore as part of retail 

mix. 

! Needs the correct environment—high 

identity site with great visibility and access 

plus high-growth residential suburbs. 



TYPE OF 


Power Town 

(Cont.) 


SF 

(INCLUDING 

ANCHORS) 

Examples: Desert 

Ridge Marketplace 

in Phoenix, Preston 

Ridge in Frisco 

(Texas), Tustin 

Marketplace in 

Tustin were early 

examples. 

35,000 - 100,000 

Rapidly proliferating 

format in the 

USA—Long Beach 

Towne Center (Long 

Beach, Calif.), Cerritos 

Town Center (Cerritos, 

Calif.), The District 

(Tustin, California), 

Tempe Marketplace 

(Temple, Arizona). 

Vestar is the dominant 

developer of this retail 

format in the USA. 



SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

20 -100+ ! Less emphasis on architectural details, but 

“street” design tends to dominate. 

! Can serve a variety of demographic profiles; 

demographics places restrictions on 

materials, fixtures, and finishes. 

! Open air projects. Can be sheltered but not 

enclosed. 

! Does not need department store(s). Strong 

restaurant and food component, generally 

concentrated along a central “spine.” 

! Large, multiplex cinemas usually are 

included, closely tied with multiple 

restaurants. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Multiple 

Use 


SF 


Non-synergistic 

development of 

different land uses 

on adjacent parcels 

of land to meet the 

diverse needs of the 

target market; 

usually includes 

some retail and 

commercial office 

space; may or may 

not include a hotel 

and/or residential 

condos and/or 

apartments. Only 

one use in any one 

tower. 

30,000 - 3,000,000 

Irvine Spectrum, Koll 

Center Irvine, Koll 

Center Newport, Hutton 

Center, Warner Center, 

Century City (all 

Southern California). 


PROPERTY 

SIZE IN 

ACRES 

COMMENTS 

5 - 50+ FEASIBLE, BUT NOT THE STRONGEST OPTION. 

! Individual buildings not strategically located; site 

may/may not be master-planned. 

! Buildings can be designed to maximize efficiency and 

layout for each use, resulting in greater economy. 

! There is no attempt to develop synergy, each 

component can be developed to meet the market. 

! Easier to finance, develop, and operate than mixeduse 

projects. Also lower risk. 

! Avoids problems with different-sized floor plates, 

different column spacing, different bay depths, 

different parking needs, different hours of operation, 

different venting requirements...etc. since any one 

building has only one use. There is no layering of 

different uses on top of a particular building. 

! Most multi-use projects generally include a large 

amount of commercial office space. 

! Generally, the best asset multi-use projects are 

projects with high-rises. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Single Block 

Mixed Use 

(Tower) 



Synergistic 

integration of 


to meet the needs 

of the target 

market; usually 

includes some 

retail and 





condos. 

More vertical type of 

project. 

30,000 - 750,000 

Tends to be a very 

vertical, high-rise project. 

Galleria (Houston), 

Galleria (Dallas), 

Watertower Place 

(Chicago), Copley Place 

(Boston); Prudential 

Center (Boston), Time- 

Warner Center (New 

York). Antara (Polanco, 

Ciudad de México). 

The Hines Company did 

this very well in the USA. 


PROPERTY SIZE IN 

ACRES 

COMMENTS 

2 - 20 NOT FEASIBLE. NOT ENOUGH DEMAND. 

! These types of mixed-use projects are very 

difficult to develop, finance, and operate well. 

! Building can be designed to maximize efficiency 

and layout for each use, resulting in greater 

economy. 

! Very high-risk project due to complexity. 

! Different uses have very different floor plates, 

column spacing, bay depths, parking needs, 

hours of operation, ceiling heights, venting 

requirements...etc. 

! Most MXD projects generally include a large 

amount of commercial office space. 

! Generally, the best asset MXDs are high-rise 

projects, but this depends on how much land is 

available and the price of the land. 

! Induced hotel demand is difficult to measure, 

more so than unmet demand. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Separated 

Mixed Use 



Synergistic 




of the target 


includes some 

retail and 





condos. Opposite 

of a multi-use 

project, which 

physically can look 

the same from a 

distance. 


PROPERTY SIZE IN 

ACRES 

COMMENTS 

50,000 - 750,000 10-40 POTENTIALLY FEASIBLE. 

! Individual buildings strategically located on 

a master-planned site. 

! Avoids problems with different floor plate 

sizes, different column spacing, different 

bay depths, different parking needs, 

different hours of operation, venting 

requirements, retail under residential 

issues...etc. 

! Complexity is diminished by avoiding 

stacking of different uses. 

! Large site costs (needs more land). 

! Most MXD projects generally include a 

large amount of commercial office space. 

! Generally, the best asset MXDs are highrise 

projects, but this depends on how much 

land is available and the price of the land. 

! Induced hotel demand is difficult to 

measure, more so than unmet demand. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Low-Rise, 

Multi Block 

Mixed Use 



Synergistic 




of the target 


includes some 

retail and 





condos. 

More horizontal 

project. 

300,000 - 1,000,000 

Really large scale = The 

Spectrum (Irvine). 

New generation of MXDs 

with retail and residential 

(and much less office)---- 

Birkdale Village 

(Huntersville), Mizner 

Park (Ft. Lauderdale), 

Santana Row (San Jose), 

Village at Merrick Park 

(Coral Gables), City Place 

(West Palm Beach). 



SIZE IN ACRES 

COMMENTS 

20 - 100 DIFFICULT. THERE IS NOT REALLY ENOUGH 

LAND FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OPTION. 

! Mixed-use projects are very difficult to 

execute and operate and are generally high 

risk projects. 

! Has more chance of success if MXD has a 

“window” on a major road, but this factor 

by itself is not enough. 

! Induced hotel demand is difficult to 

measure, more so than unmet demand. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Residential 


CONCEPT LOT SIZES TOTAL PROPERTY 

SIZE IN 

ACRES 

Can be part of a 

larger Mixed-Use (or 

Multiple Use) project. 

Vary depending on target 

customer. 

COMMENTS 

2+ FEASIBLE, BUT SHOULD ONLY BE 

CONSIDERED AS PART OF A LARGER 

MIXED-USE PROJECT. 

! Single-use residential is not the highest 

and best use of the land. 

! This market has not gone “high-rise” 

residential yet in this sector because the 

metropolitan area still has land to “spread 

out.” 

! Amenities will need to be offered in order 

to differentiate this project from other new 

residential developments and to attract 

potential home buyers. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Commercial 

Office, 

Build to Suit 


CONCEPT SPACE GLA IN SF TOTAL PROPERTY 

SIZE IN ACRES 

High-quality, “Build 

to Suit” Corporate 

Commercial office 

space—single tenant 

building for 

corporate 

headquarters. 

Single-use project, or 

with some level of 

retail amenities, 

generally service 

retail, outpost retail, 

or restaurants. 

Can be free-standing 

project or part of a 

larger project. 

150,000 - 1,000,000 1+ NOT FEASIBLE. 

COMMENTS 

! This is not a location for any major office space. 

! Technology and amenities packages for 

commercial offices are evolving; expected 

spread of LEEDs and SEEDs (“Green”) 

standards will create demand for new and 

better commercial space among major space 

users and international corporations, but this 

demand is likely to be in existing business 

districts or zones with more connections to 

the surrounding metropolitan area. 

! Does not work as well when placed on a retail 

podium, since the single tenant user usually 

wants a grand entrance lobby on the first 

ground level. Column spacing is an issue for 

the retail tenant anchor. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Commercial 

Office, 

Multi-Tenant 


CONCEPT SPACE GLA IN SF TOTAL PROPERTY 

SIZE IN ACRES 

Multi-tenant 


space. Single use 

project, or with some 

level of retail 

amenities, generally 

service retail, outpost 

retail, or restaurants. 

Can be free-standing 

project or part of a 


COMMENTS 

150,000 - 500,000+ 2+ POTENTIALLY FEASIBLE AS PART OF A 

LARGER MIXED-USE PROJECT, ESPECIALLY IF 

IT INCLUDES R&D (RESEARCH AND 

DEVELOPMENT). 

! Many of the smaller office space users 

currently work out of their homes. A new 

project will need a lot of amenities to get 

them to move out and into a new 

environment. 

! These will be smaller tenants that require 

office spaces in the 500 sf to 1,500 sf range. 

! Fits better on top of a retail podium, or over a 

hotel, since there is no need for a grand 

entrance lobby on the ground level. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Hotel 


CONCEPT NUMBER OF ROOMS TOTAL PROPERTY 

SIZE IN ACRES 

Free-standing 

hotel, or could 

be part of the 


Many different 

hotel formats 

available, wide 

variety of 

amenities and 

price points. 

20-300 1+ depending on 

parking 

arrangements 

COMMENTS 

POTENTIALLY FEASIBLE, BUT ONLY AS A COMPONENT 

OF A LARGER MIXED-USE PROJECT. 

! This is not the best location for a hotel, unless it is 

integrated with the larger project. 

! Area already has several hotels, generally budget or 

economy class. 

! Hotel room demand has more flexibility to be 

“induced” than other categories of land use. 

! Seldom the dominant use in a MXD. 

! May need more than one to make a MXD really work 

. 



TYPE OF 

DEVELOPMENT 

Industrial 


CONCEPT SPACE in SF TOTAL 

PROPERTY SIZE 

IN ACRES 

Warehouses and 

distribution 

centers or a 

higher 

use—R&D 

(research and 

development) or 

“flex” space. 

Examples: 

Spectrum in 

Irvine, Alliance 

near Dallas. 

50,000 - 300,000 

Latest generation are 

pushing one million sf. 

2+ NO. NOT EVEN R&D. 

COMMENTS 

! Not the highest and best use of the land. 

! Not a fit for what already exists in the 

surrounding area. 

! Industrial parks do better near major road, 

rail and airport facilities. There are better 

industrial locations in the marketplace. 

! Neighboring population to the south-east 

could serve as a source of labor. 


CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 

LARGE FORMATS 


To begin with, most of the very largest formats of shopping centers need not only a lot of land (generally 100+ 

acres) but they need a lot of very good access—multiple lanes of access from multiple directions—usually 20 or 

more lanes feeding to the site from all four major directions of the compass. SPCI does not consider these three 

formats to be viable, in part because of the land configuration and in part because of the size issue. They can be 

done, perhaps, by “wrapping” around the existing baseball stadium, but they will require a lot more work, a lot of 

cost, and entail, in the opinion of SPCI, higher risk. A town center format (also potentially a large format if it 

becomes a truly regional project) is considered by SPCI to be more feasible (1) since most town centers have 

mixed-use components which tend to “spread” traffic volume across a longer span of the day and night; (2) are 

more vertical, which reduces somewhat the need for land and (3) are much more modular projects and can 

generally be built in stages, if need be, in order to accommodate the actual market situation with respect to 

tenants. Therefore, as possible options, the following retail formats should not be considered: 

- super regional fashion mall (four or more department stores) 

- Mills/super outlet center (100,000-200,000 m² of outlets) 

- power town (multiple “big box” discounters + large central entertainment-oriented paseo) 


VERY SMALL FORMATS 


SPCI also does not foresee a role for the smallest of shopping center formats—they will be too easily “lost” in the 

rd 

profusion of retail around the intersection of 83 Avenue and Bell Road. They have neither the critical mass or 

visual merchandising presence to make any kind of serious impression on the marketplace. 

Neighborhood centers can be found all over the metropolitan area...the basic grocery store + drug store, onelevel, 

open-air format on the corner of an intersection. Not actually immediately in the vicinity of the property 

because the power centers have largely “taken over” the retail environment along Bell Road in this sector. These 

projects will not give the project any “bump” in prestige or status and it will serve a very small trade area. SPCI 

would prefer the more specialized “village town center” if a small project is chosen. Therefore, no: 

- convenience center 

- neighborhood center 


SOME SPECIALIZED FORMATS 


The socio-demographic situation of the trade area and the existing spending habits of the various segments of the 

trade area population eliminates any chance of a specialty center—very high-end luxury retailers/brands such as 

Burberry, Carolina Herrera, Cartier, Celine, Christian Dior, DKNY, Escada, Fendi, Ferragamo, Furla, Givenchy, 

Gucci, Hermes, Hugo Boss, Loewe, Louis Vuitton, Marc Jacobs, Max Mara, Nina Ricci, Polo Ralph Lauren, 

Sephora, Tiffany, Tori Burch, Versace. These retailers can congregate at Biltmore Fashion Park. Most markets 

can sustain only one project with these retailers. They have very high co-tenant requirements and tend to “flock” 

together. Therefore, no: 

- specialty center 

Despite their appealing premise in the 1990s, when they first debuted, entertainment centers (also known as 

“urban entertainment centers”) have, for the most part, not been successful in the USA except in some very 

specific kinds of environments—densely populated areas with a very high concentration of commercial office 

space in high-rise towers, along with a high number of hotels, in places that also attract many tourists and visitors 

(well into the millions). While the presence of the baseball stadium might seem to be a reason to pursue this 

direction of development, SPCI argues strongly against it. Projects based on creating retail around sports facilities 

have yet to prove that they can successful operate on a daily basis—Westgate in Glendale is a prime example, but 

so is LA Live in Los Angeles (Staples Center, Nokia Theater). It should be pointed out that the Gaslamp District 

was a success before Petco Stadium was built in San Diego, not the other way around, and that the densities 

around this area are very different from the situation in Peoria. Therefore, no: 

- entertainment center 

Lifestyle centers became a major “flavor” of the development community in the late 1990s following the 

development of Saddle Creek outside Memphis. Their initial success was due to the failure of regional fashion 



malls to adjust to changes in consumer tastes. These are one-level, open air projects, with tenants such as Ann 

Taylor, Apple, Banana Republic, Chico’s, Coldwater Creek, Crate and Barrel, Express, Gap, J. Crew, J. Jill, 

Pottery Barn, Restoration Hardware, Smith & Hawkin, Soma, Sur la Table, Talbot’s, Tommy Bahama, Urban 

Outfitters, Victoria’s Secret, White House/Black Market, Williams Sonoma, Z Gallerie, etc.). The tenants are not 

high-end, luxury retailers, but rather retailers with more modest price points, often focused on younger 

generations...“lifestyle retailers.” A very focused and planned campaign might in fact acquire this tenant list, but 

it will take a great deal of work and a lot of time. If this option is preferred, it would be best to have a “Plan B” in 

the event that the lifestyle center project does not work out. SPCI’s preference is to “opt” for the “town center” 

format instead and include lifestyle retailers rather than aiming for a pure lifestyle center. Many lifestyle centers 

have failed, many are struggling. Nonetheless, the innovations introduced in the lifestyle center have changed the 

retail environment for ever, forcing new projects to pay a lot more attention to the kind of experience that is 

delivered by the center as a whole, outside the individual stores. These changes have ranged from greater 

convenience in terms of access to stores, to more attention being paid to architectural design and a greater focus 

on a variety of dining experiences. Therefore, no: 

- lifestyle center 

Since the land is not a famous and well-known, historical site, a festival marketplace format would not be a good 

choice in the opinion of SPCI. Projects that have attempted to “create” some history have generally not fared well 

because customers are better informed today and less likely to be attracted to something that is not authentic. A 

festival marketplace is essentially an entertainment center placed into a historical building or collection of 

buildings with live entertainment venues in addition to restaurants, bookstores, music stores, and 

cinemas—Fanueil Hall in Boston, and The Ferry building in San Francisco are two examples. Therefore, no: 

- festival marketplace 



Outlet malls/centers need very cheap land and have very cheap construction (one-level, outdoor, open air design, 

simple architecture). Radius restrictions used by many retail chains make it difficult to gain tenants when there is 

any kind of regional fashion mall nearby. Therefore, no: 

- outlet center 

The area around the project is “overrun” with power centers, along Bell Road (North Valley, Arrowhead 

rd 

Crossing, Arrowhead Marketplace, several more to the east) with another one to the north along 83 Avenue. 

Adding one more simply adds to the existing retail “clutter.” It will be impossible for a project with this format to 

“stand out” and gain any kind of strategic competitive advantage. Therefore, no: 

- power center 

There is already a regional fashion mall (actually a super-regional) located to the immediate north. While not 

exactly the “latest and greatest” in terms of fashion mall design or tenant mix, SPCI does not advocate trying this 

format. In addition, the number of regional and super regional fashion malls in the USA has declined from 2.500 

to approximately 1,700 over the last decade an many analysts expect that perhaps another 1,000 will disappear or 

be converted into something else. The Phoenix area is as good an example of this as any area—Christown, Los 

Arcos, Metro Center, Desert Sky, Park Central are five of the casualties. Therefore, no: 

- regional fashion mall 

While it could be possible to develop a community shopping center around a grocery store and the right collection 

of supporting stores and restaurants, SPCI is of the opinion that a community center is an “old” form of retail 

distribution and one that does not offer a significant competitive advantage, especially with the presence of so 



many power centers in the immediate vicinity. No: 

- community center 

This analysis, so far, has eliminated twelve possible retail formats as being either impractical or too high risk. This 

leaves, for better or worse, only two potential retail formats for closer consideration. The good news that these 

are among the newer formats of retail development and are very flexible in their design and layout as the focus is 

more on the customer experience than on traditional retail development rules. There are still rules that it is best 

not to break, but if none of the traditional rules are changed, then it will also be difficult to develop a project for 

the market that can gain any kind of sustainable competitive advantage. In essence, these two choices are 

variations of one theme, but with a significant size difference. The Peoria project is likely going to have to aim for 

something that is “between” these two formats. 

- regional town center 

- village town center 

There are some variations possible for both of these retail formats (or an intermediate variation), depending on 

whether the desired objective is to be a single-use retail, multiple-use, or mixed-use project. 

Lets inspect these formats more closely. 


REGIONAL TOWN CENTER 


Of the many retail options, this is SPCI’s favored strategy. Why? 

1. These formats are heavily “experiential.” SPCI is of the opinion that there is already a lot of 

existing retail in Peoria and Glendale, especially along Bell Road. Therefore, any new retail 

product had better be able to deliver a very strong, and clearly different, customer experience, if the 

objective is to serve the region (as opposed to either the immediate neighborhoods or the 

surrounding community). SPCI calls this the “wow” experience...the arriving customer must be 

surprised and amazed by what is awaiting him or her. By focusing on the experience to be delivered 

to the consumer, rather than the physical product in terms of sf, the project can “stand out” from 

among the other shopping and dining options that are available in this marketplace. 

2. Rather than competing in “congested” retail categories (power centers) or declining formats 

(regional fashion malls), the project can create its “own” new retail category (in this sector of the 

market) and establish its image in the marketplace more easily. The project must strive to be more 

interesting and more fun than any other projects in its trade area. This requires that the project be 

much more than just “Kierland Commons West.” There is a lot to be learned from Kierland, but it 

is a unique project that suits its environment and trade area and the history of its site. Here is 

Peoria, something different must be created. 

3. Luckily, the trade area format is a very fluid format in terms of layout and design, despite the fact 

that it goes back to 1923 and Country Club Plaza in Kansas City. It is also an easily expandable 

format, as has ben demonstrated at Kierland. It can be done in separate phases (although there are 

strong reasons to “hit” the market with enough critical mass, in particular to short circuit any 

attempt by Arrowhead Towne Center to try and reconfigure itself) . 



4. Since town centers tend to be “all about the experience,” there is an easier connection to the 

rd 

surrounding environment (stadium, restaurants along 83 Avenue, cinemas) which can all serve to 

enhance the overall environment and ambiance of the town center. The town center will be 

“building” on the strengths and synergies of the existing facilities and destination restaurants that 

are immediately adjacent to the property and have already established the “zone” as a destination. 

5. Town centers tend to work well in close proximity, or reasonably close proximity, to universities 

(Easton Town Center, Colombus, Ohio; The Domain, in Austin, Texas). While there is no 

university immediately adjacent, there are educational institutions close enough to be able to 

provide a body of high energy, young, active lifestyle customers to counteract the somewhat lower 

activity levels of the Sun City residents who live to the west of I-101. 

This is actually a very “old” format of shopping enter—as mentioned, Country Club Plaza in Kansas City is the 

oldest continuously operating shopping center in the USA, dating back to 1923. The project was more than a little 

ahead of its time, however, and the town center format of shopping center did not really gain much attention until 

the late 1990s in the USA. The format continues to be extremely popular as of 2011 and the majority of successful 

and interesting retail projects over the last decade have been town centers in one of their various variations and 

sizes—Victoria Gardens (Rancho Cucamonga), Kierland Commons (Scottsdale), Santana Row (San Jose), 

Southlake Town Square (Southlake, Texas), Firewheel Town Center (Garland, Texas), Bowie Town Center 

(Bowie, Maryland), Otay Ranch Town Center (Chula Vista), San Tan Village (Gilbert, Arizona), The District at 

Green Valley Ranch (Henderson), New Town (Williamsburg, Virginia), Main Street (Woodlands, Texas), City 

Place (West Palm Beach), Americana at Brand (Glendale, California), West Glen Town Center (West Des 

Moines), Woodbury Town Center (Irvine, California). There is a lot of variety in this group, but they are clearly 

different from their predecessors that were built in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. 

A successful town center takes a lot of planning, as the presence of many details is crucial to create the necessary 

ambiance for the customer. It is important that every building not look like it is the same style (Woodbury is 



somewhat the exception) by the same architect, that there is a variety of colors, textures, materials, finishes, 

hardscapes, furnishings, building heights, building setbacks, lighting fixtures and landscaping. It is important that 

there is a lot of landscaping (preferably native trees, grasses, plants and shrubs) and that there is great 

illumination at night. The 2011 ICSC Design Award Winner was Liverpool One (England)...a project where 30 

different buildings were designed by 26 different architects. 

Since the “experience” of the consumer is paramount, this requires a lot of special events, promotions, and 

activities to keep the annual calender of the shopping center filled and interesting (above and beyond the basic 

holidays and car shows). A town center has a big “theatrical” component...it is not selling “fashion” in the way 

that a regional fashion mall does (although a town center can and does have fashion boutiques) and it is not 

selling convenience in the way that a community center does. In a regional fashion mall, the sheer size of the 

anchor department stores can overwhelm the customer and reduce the intimate ambiance. Town centers try to 

avoid such massive structures, or if they have them, then they are designed to appear as multiple buildings and 

facades. Large “big box” or “medium box” retailers are pushed out to peripheral locations to become “shadow” 

anchors...close enough to exert some influence as an anchor, but far enough away from the central pedestrian 

experience so as to not “destroy” the ambiance. 


VILLAGE TOWN CENTER 


A village town center is an old/new format. Highland Park in Dallas introduced this format in 1947 (a smaller and 

more intimate version of County Club Plaza), but it failed to become widely popular until the late 1990s and early 

2000s in the USA. Essentially, the village town center is an “upscaled” neighborhood center with much better 

architecture, better lighting, more landscaping, a more coordinated mix of tenants, generally more “upscale 

tenants”, and an overall “ambiance” that encourages customers to spend more time in the project, meeting 

friends, dining, or walking around. To that end, there is an attempt to recreate, in the USA, the old “Main Street” 

experience. Some of the stores may in fact be very convenience-oriented (supermarket, banks, pharmacy) but 

they tend to be somewhat more “upscale” in their quality than what is found in a typical neighborhood shopping 

center. 

An advantage to this format is that since the size of the project is relatively small, generally under 150,000 sf, 

leasing the space generally is easier and faster. The limited availability of retail space allows the owner to push up 

rents faster, if the project proves to be a success. 

Another strong point is that village town centers can accommodate other real estate uses, ranging from residential 

to multi-level commercial office to hotels, and may in fact include one (Highland Park, Dallas), two (Verado, 

Arizona), or all three asset categories. If there are three other components, in addition to retail, then usually the 

project has become large enough to be more regionally serving, such as Kierland Commons in Scottsdale, 

Arizona, or Santana Row in San Jose, California (see comments above under “Regional Town Center”). 

Finally, village town centers tend to be very modular in their design and layout, making expansion relatively easy. 

A common strategy is to convert the peripheral parking lots of the first phase into mid-rise buildings in later 

phases. The major advantage of this retail format is its “uniqueness.” 


APPENDIX-BIBLIOGRAPHY


KIERLAND COMMONS (SCOTTSDALE, AZ) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 

(1-MILE, 3-MILE, 5-MILE RINGS) 

Kierland 

Commons 

(1-mile radius) 

Peoria Sports 

Center 


Population Income Housing Values 

• Total population is 

currently 6,839. 

• Median age: 39.9 




• Most common household 

income level is $100-150k per 

year, with 26.5% (20.3% at $75- 

100k, and 18% at $50-75k). 

• Median: $86,480 

• Average: $107,300 

• Per Capita: $46,940 



year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 


• Median home value: 

$464,047 

• Median home value 

in this area is 

$297,449. 

Strategic Planning Concepts International, LLC 7-1 August, 2011

Kierland 

Commons 


Peoria Sports 

Center 






• Median age: 41 






year, with 25.1% (17.6% make 

$50-75k, 16.5% make $75-100k). 

• Median: $86,702 

• Average: $108,453 



income level is $50-75k per year, 

with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$482,236 



$234,410. 


Kierland 

Commons 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











income level is still $100-150k, 

with 20.9% (19.2% make $50- 

75k and 15.8% make $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $81,305 

• Average: $110,933 




year, with 20.6% (14.5% 

between $100-150k, and 

14.4% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$440,981 



$220,558. 



SANTANA ROW (SAN JOSE, CA) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Santana 

Row 


Peoria Sports 

Center 










income level is $75-100k 

per year, with 12.4% 

(17.2% at $100-150k, and 

10% at $150-200k). 

• Median: $78,653 

• Average: $97,531 





(19.1% at $50-75k, and 

18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$673,746 

• Median home value in 

this area is $297,449. 


Santana 

Row 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












per year, with 17.6% (17% 

at $100-150k, and 13.2% 

at $75-100k). 

• Median: $79,732 

• Average: $106,286 





(14.5% between $75-100k, 

and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$680,397 




Santana 

Row 


Peoria Sports 

Center 













(15.1% at $50-75k, and 

12.6% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $85,657 

• Average: $116,450 





(14.5% between $100- 

150k, and 14.4% at $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$711,400 





AMERICANA AT BRAND (GLENDALE, CA) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Americana at 

Brand 


Peoria Sports 

Center 










income level is

Americana at 

Brand 


Peoria Sports 

Center 













(12.2% at $100-150k, and 

11.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $50,872 

• Average: $66,847 





(14.5% between $75-100k, 

and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$608,535 




Americana at 

Brand 


Peoria Sports 

Center 













(11.5% at $100-150k, and 

10.5% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $47,031 

• Average: $66,280 





(14.5% between $100- 

150k, and 14.4% at $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$622,026 





THE GROVE (LOS ANGELES) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


The Grove 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












(15.7% at $100-150k, and 

12.7% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $60,479 

• Average: $81,557 





(19.1% at $50-75k, and 

18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$1,000,001 




The Grove 


Peoria Sports 

Center 













(15.4% at

The Grove 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











income level is


CHANDLER FASHION CENTER VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Chandler 

Fashion Center 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











year, with 23.5% (22.3% at 

$100-150k, and 19% at $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $76,385 

• Average: $88,948 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$246,562 



$297,449. 


Chandler Fashion 

Center 


Peoria Sports 

Center 













$50-75k, 19% make $75-100k). 

• Median: $81,373 

• Average: $96,065 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$287,331 



$234,410. 



Center 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











income level is $100-150k, 

with 22.8% (21.9% make $50- 

75k and 18.8% make $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $81,305 

• Average: $110,933 




year, with 20.6% (14.5% 


14.4% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$273,307 



$220,558. 



BILTMORE FASHION PARK VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Biltmore 

Fashion Park 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











year, with 20.1% (17.3% at $35- 

50k, and 14% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $59,064 

• Average: $85,991 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$366,767 



$297,449. 


Biltmore Fashion 

Park 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












with 19.4% (17.5% make $35- 

50k, 11.6% make $25-35k). 

• Median: $48,608 

• Average: $71,563 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$272,636 



$234,410. 



Park 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












with 18.9% (16.8% make $35- 

50k and 12.6% make


SCOTTSDALE FASHION SQUARE VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Scottsdale 

Fashion Square 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











year, with 20.7% (18.5% at $35- 

50k, and 11.2% at $25-35k). 

• Median: $51,185 

• Average: $77,343 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$286,648 



$297,449. 


Scottsdale 



Peoria Sports 

Center 












with 21.4% (16.3% make $35- 

505k, 13.9% make $75-100k). 

• Median: $59,617 

• Average: $83,932 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$302,122 



$234,410. 



Square 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












with 20.2% (16.3% make $35- 

50k and 12.6% make $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $55,724 

• Average: $82,249 




year, with 20.6% (14.5% 


14.4% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$310,972 



$220,558. 


METRO CENTER MALL 


Metro Center 

Mall 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












year, with 22.9% (18.1% at $35- 

50k, and 12.9% at $15-25k). 

• Median: $45,333 

• Average: $55,061 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$153,484 



$297,449. 


Metro Center 

Mall 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












with 21.4% (16.3% make $35- 

505k, 13.9% make $75-100k). 

• Median: $52,720 

• Average: $63,573 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$186,725 



$234,410. 


Metro Center 

Mall 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












with 22.6% (17% make $35- 

50k and 14.2% make $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $53,364 

• Average: $67,069 




year, with 20.6% (14.5% 


14.4% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$196,667 



$220,558. 


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CHART I ESTIMATED PRIMARY SECONDARY TRADE AREA POPULATIONS PEORIA 

TARGET AREA ESTI MATED 

SPCI - 2011 

POPULATI ON 

Co mments KEY COMPONENTS 

PRI MARY TRADE AREA Wit hi n 20- mi nut e dri ve ti me. 

Peori a 148, 000 

Gl endal e 241, 000 

Sun City 40, 000 

TOTAL MAXI MUM PRI MARY TRADE AREA 429, 000 

( 

KEY COMPONENTS 

SECONDARY TRADE AREA Wit hi n 1-hour dri ve ti me 

Surpr i se 94, 000 

Wi ckenburg 6, 500 

Nort err a 5, 000 

Ant he m 23, 000 

El Mirage 32, 000 

TOTAL 

( 

MAXI MUM SECONDARY TRADE AREA 

) 

160, 500 

PRI M ARY AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS - GRAND TOTAL 589, 500 

) 

Strategic Planning Concepts International August, 2011

CHART IIA SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 

Socio- Estimated Estimated Household Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated 

Economic Percent of Population Size Households Average Total Total Percent of Retail Capture Market 

Category Population 2011 Factor 2011 Household Income Disposable Retail Expenditures Percentage of Capture for 

Income Income Spending ForFor Shopper & Shopper Shopper 

2011 Shopper & Convenience Goods Goods 

Convenience Goods Out of Total 

Goods Retail Spending 

Peori a 148, 000 

$20 0, 00 0+ 3. 80 % 5, 624 2. 83 1, 987 20 0, 000 397, 40 0, 000 238, 440, 000 15. 0 % 35, 76 6, 000 40. 00 % 14, 306, 400 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 4. 60 % 6, 808 2. 83 2, 405 175, 000 420, 875, 000 25 2, 525, 000 20. 0 % 50, 505, 000 40. 00 % 20, 202, 000 

$100, 000-$149, 999 17. 40 % 25, 752 2. 83 9, 099 125, 000 1, 137, 375, 000 796, 162, 500 2 2. 5 % 179, 136, 563 37. 50 % 67, 176, 211 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 16. 20 % 23, 976 2. 83 8, 472 87, 500 741, 30 0, 000 518, 910, 000 30. 0 % 15 5, 673, 000 35. 0 0 % 54, 485, 550 

$50, 000-$74, 999 21. 20 % 31, 376 2. 83 1 1, 086 65, 000 720, 590, 000 576, 472, 000 45. 0 % 259, 412, 400 32. 50 % 84, 309, 030 

$35, 000-$49, 999 13. 60 % 20, 128 2. 83 7, 112 42, 500 302, 260, 000 241, 808, 000 5 5. 0 % 132, 994, 400 30. 00 % 39, 8 98, 

320 

$25, 000-$34, 999 8. 60 % 12, 728 2. 83 4, 497 30, 000 134, 910, 000 12 1, 419, 000 65. 0 % 78, 92 2, 350 25. 0 0 % 19, 730, 588 

$15, 000-$24, 999 7. 50 % 1 1, 100 2. 83 3, 922 20, 000 78, 440, 000 70, 596, 000 70. 0 % 49, 417, 200 20. 00 % 9, 883, 440

CHART IIA SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 

Estimated Estimated Sustainable Sustainable 

Capture Capture SF SF 

Percentage in Dollars at 380 at 680 

of for Dollars Per Dollars Per 

Shopper Goods Shopper Goods SF SF 

Sales Sales 

Performance Performance 

5. 0 0 % 715, 320 1, 882 1, 052 

5. 0 0 % 1, 0 10, 100 2, 658 1, 485 

4. 50 % 3, 02 2, 929 7, 955 4, 445 

4. 50 % 2, 451, 850 6, 452 3, 606 

4. 50 % 3, 793, 906 9, 983 5, 579 

3. 0 0 % 1, 196, 950 

3, 149 1, 760 

3. 0 0 % 591, 918 1, 557 870 

0. 50 % 49, 417 

130 73 

0. 10 % 1, 337 3 2 

$12, 83 3, 726. 70 3 3, 769 18, 873 

5. 0 0 % 687, 960 1, 810 1, 012 5. 0 0 % 1, 186, 500 3, 122 1, 745 

4. 50 % 4, 527, 584 1 1, 914 6, 658 

4. 50 % 3, 823, 925 10, 062 

5, 623 

4. 50 % 6, 683, 312 17, 587 9, 828 

3. 0 0 % 1, 971, 971 5, 189 2, 900 

3. 0 0 % 962, 574 2, 533 1, 416 0. 50 % 80, 615 212 119 0. 10 % 2, 363 6 3 

$19, 926, 803. 33 52, 435 29, 304 

$32, 760, 530. 02 86, 204 48, 177 


CHART IIB SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 

Socio- Estimated Estimated Household Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated 

Economic Percent of Population Size Households Average Total Total Percent of Retail Capture 

Category Population 2011 Factor 2011 Household Income Disposable Retail Expenditures Percentage of 

Income Income Spending ForFor Shopper & Shopper 

2011 Shopper & Convenience Goods 




$20 0, 00 0+ 2. 60 % 1, 040 1. 80 577 20 0, 000 115, 40 0, 000 69, 240, 000 15. 0 % 10, 386, 000 40. 00 % 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 1. 90 % 760 1. 80 422 175, 000 73, 850, 000 44, 310, 000 20. 0 % 8, 862, 000 40. 00 % 

$100, 000-$149, 999 9. 80 % 3, 920 1. 80 2, 177 125, 000 27 2, 125, 000 190, 487, 500 2 2. 5 % 42, 859, 688 37. 50 % 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 14. 80 % 5, 920 1. 80 3, 288 87, 500 287, 70 0, 000 201, 390, 000 30. 0 % 60, 417, 000 35. 0 0 % 

$50, 000-$74, 999 25. 30 % 10, 120 1. 80 5, 622 65, 000 365, 430, 000 292, 34 4, 000 45. 0 % 13 1, 554, 800 32. 50 % 

$35, 000-$49, 999 20. 4 0 % 8, 160 1. 80 4, 533 42, 500 192, 652, 500 154, 12 2, 000 5 5. 0 % 84, 76 7, 100 30. 00 % 

$25, 000-$34, 999 12. 50 % 5, 000 1. 80 2, 777 30, 000 83, 310, 000 74, 97 9, 000 65. 0 % 48, 736, 350 25. 0 0 % 

$15, 000-$24, 999 8. 20 % 3, 280 1. 80 1, 822 20, 000 36, 440, 000 32, 796, 000 70. 0 % 2 2, 957, 200 20. 00 % 

CHART IIB SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 

Estimated Estimated Estimated Sustainable Sustainable 

Market Capture Capture SF SF 

Capture for Percentage in Dollars at 380 at 680 

Shopper of for Dollars Per Dollars Per 

Goods Shopper Goods Shopper Goods SF SF 

Sales Sales 


4, 154, 400 5. 0 0 % 207, 720 

546 305 

3, 54 4, 800 4. 0 0 % 14 1, 792 373 209 

16, 072, 383 3. 75 % 602, 714 1, 586 886 21, 145, 950 3. 50 % 740, 108 1, 947 1, 088 

42, 75 5, 310 3. 25 % 1, 389, 548 3, 656 2, 043 

25, 430, 130 3. 0 0 % 762, 904 2, 007 1, 122 12, 184, 088 2. 75 % 335, 062 881 493 

4, 591, 440 0. 50 % 2 2, 

957 60 34 

360, 000 

0. 10 % 360 0 1 

130, 238, 50 0 $4, 203, 165. 69 1 1, 056 6, 181 

7, 459, 200 4. 0 0 % 298, 368 785 439 

7, 459, 200 3. 50 % 261, 072 687 384 

35, 791, 875 3. 25 % 1, 163, 236 3, 061 1, 711 42, 362, 644 3. 0 0 % 1, 270, 879 3, 344 1, 869 

71, 198, 010 2. 75 % 1, 957, 945 5, 152 2, 879 

31, 971, 390 2. 50 % 79 9, 285 2, 103 1, 175 

14, 610, 375 2. 25 % 328, 733 865 483 

7, 27 2, 720 0. 10 % 7, 273 19 11 

852, 480 0. 00 % 0 0 0 

218, 97 7, 

894 $6, 086, 791. 43 16, 016 8, 951 

$10, 289, 957. 12 27, 072 15, 132 


CHART IIC SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 




Income Income Spending For For Shopper & Shopper 




Wi ckenbur g 6, 500 

$20 0, 00 0+ 1. 90 % 124 2. 18 56 20 0, 000 1 1, 20 0, 000 6, 720, 000 15. 0 % 1, 008, 000 40. 00 % 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 0. 9 0 % 59 2. 18 26 175, 000 4, 550, 000 2, 730, 000 20. 0 % 546, 000 40. 00 % 

$100, 000-$149, 999 5. 80 % 377 2. 18 172 125, 000 21, 50 0, 000 15, 0 50, 000 2 2. 5 % 3, 386, 

250 37. 50 % 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 1 1. 20 % 728 2. 18 333 87, 500 29, 137, 500 20, 396, 250 30. 0 % 6, 118, 875 35. 0 0 % 

$50, 000-$74, 999 17. 90 % 1, 164 2. 18 533 65, 000 34, 645, 000 27, 716, 000 45. 0 % 12, 472, 200 32. 50 % 

$35, 000-$49, 999 18. 60 % 1, 209 2. 18 554 42, 500 23, 54 5, 000 18, 836, 000 5 5. 0 % 10, 359, 800 30. 00 % 

$25, 000-$34, 999 10. 9 0 % 709 2. 18 325 30, 000 9, 750, 000 8, 775, 000 65. 0 % 5, 703, 750 25. 0 0 % 

$15, 000-$24, 999 14. 40 % 936 2. 18 429 20, 000 8, 580, 000 7, 72 2, 000 70. 0 % 5, 405, 400 20. 00 % 

CHART IIC SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 






Sales Sales 


403, 200 3. 50 % 14, 112 

37 21 

218, 400 3. 50 % 7, 644 20 11 

1, 269, 844 3. 25 % 41, 270 108 61 

2, 141, 606 3. 0 0 % 64, 248 169 94 

4, 053, 465 2. 75 % 1 11, 

470 293 164 

3, 107, 940 2. 50 % 7 7, 699 204 114 1, 425, 

938 2. 25 % 32, 084 84 47 

1, 081, 080 0. 10 % 1, 081 2 2 

197, 280 0. 0 0 % 0 0 0 

13, 898, 753 $349, 607. 57 917 514 

1, 432, 800 3. 50 % 50, 148 131 74 

1, 310, 400 3. 50 % 45, 864 120 67 

5, 596, 172 3. 25 % 18 1, 876 

478 267 

5, 035, 669 3. 0 0 % 15 1, 070 397 222 

7, 308, 405 2. 75 % 20 0, 

981 528 296 

3, 063, 060 2. 50 % 76, 577 201 113 1, 263, 600 2. 25 % 28, 431 74 42 

693, 000 0. 50 % 3, 465 9 5 

95, 760 0. 00 % 0 0 0 

25, 798, 86 6 $738, 41 1. 

29 1, 938 1, 086 

$1, 08 8, 018. 86 2, 855 1, 600 


CHART IID SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 




Income Income Spending ForFor Shopper & Shopper 




Ant he m 23, 000 

$20 0, 00 0+ 3. 80 % 874 2. 72 321 20 0, 000 64, 20 0, 000 38, 520, 000 15. 0 % 5, 778, 000 40. 00 % 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 5. 40 % 1, 242 2. 72 456 175, 000 79, 80 0, 000 47, 880, 000 20. 0 % 9, 576, 000 40. 00 % 

$100, 000-$149, 999 2 2. 70 % 5, 221 2. 72 1, 919 125, 000 239, 875, 000 167, 912, 500 2 2. 5 % 37, 780, 313 37. 50 % 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 26. 30 % 6, 049 2. 72 2, 223 87, 500 194, 512, 500 136, 158, 750 30. 0 % 40, 847, 625 35. 0 0 % 

$50, 000-$74, 999 21. 0 0 % 4, 830 2. 72 1, 775 65, 000 115, 375, 000 92, 30 0, 000 45. 0 % 41, 53 5, 000 32. 50 % 

$35, 000-$49, 999 8. 60 % 1, 978 2. 72 727 42, 500 30, 897, 500 24, 718, 000 5 5. 0 % 13, 594, 900 30. 00 % 

$25, 000-$34, 999 4. 20 % 966 2. 72 355 30, 000 10, 650, 000 9, 58 5, 000 65. 0 % 6, 230, 250 25. 0 0 % 

$15, 000-$24, 999 4. 10 % 943 2. 72 346 20, 000 6, 920, 000 6, 228, 000 70. 0 % 4, 359, 600 20. 00 % 

CHART IID SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR SHOPPER GOODS PEORIA 






Sales Sales 

g 


2, 31 1, 200 4. 0 0 % 92, 448 243 136 

3, 830, 400 3. 50 % 134, 064 352 197 

14, 167, 617 3. 0 0 % 425, 029 1, 118 

625 

14, 296, 669 

2. 50 % 357, 417 940 526 

13, 498, 875 2. 25 % 30 3, 725 799 447 4, 078, 470 1. 75 % 71, 373 187 105 

1, 557, 563 1. 25 % 19, 470 51 29 

871, 920 0. 10 % 872 2 1 

118, 440 0. 0 0 % 0 0 0 

54, 731, 153 $1, 40 4, 396. 60 

3, 692 2, 065 

849, 600 4. 0 0 % 3 3, 

984 89 50 

991, 200 3. 50 % 34, 692 91 51 

6, 681, 445 3. 0 0 % 20 0, 443 527 295 

7, 524, 563 2. 50 % 18 8, 114 495 277 

18, 632, 250 2. 25 % 419, 226 1, 103 

617 

9, 385, 530 1. 75 % 164, 247 432 242 

5, 572, 125 1. 25 % 69, 652 

183 102 

1, 796, 760 0. 10 % 1, 797 4 3 

259, 920 0. 00 % 0 0 0 

51, 693, 393 $1, 112, 154. 14 2, 924 1, 636 

$2, 516, 550. 74 6, 616 

3, 701 


CHART IIIA SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS PEORIA 

Socio- Estimated Estimated Household Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Sustainable Sustainable 

Economic Percent of Population Size Households Average Total Total Percent of Retail Capture Market Capture Capture SF SF 

Category Population 2011 Factor 2011 Household Income Disposable Retail Expenditures Percentage of Capture for Percentage in Dollars at 380 at 680 

Income Income Spending For For Shopper & Convenience Convenience of for Dollars Per Dollars Per 

2011 Shopper & Convenience Goods Goods Convenience Convenience SF SF 

Convenience Goods Out of Total Goods Goods Sales Sales 

Goods Reta il Spending Performance Performance 

Peori a 148, 000 

$20 0, 00 0+ 3. 80 % 5, 624 2. 83 1, 987 20 0, 000 397, 40 0, 000 238, 440, 000 15. 0 % 35, 76 6, 000 60. 0 0 % 21, 459, 600 

1, 072, 980 2, 823 1, 578 

5.00% 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 4. 60 % 6, 808 2. 83 2, 405 175, 000 420, 875, 000 25 2, 525, 000 20. 0 % 50, 505, 000 60. 0 0 % 30, 303, 000 

1, 5 15, 150 3, 987 2, 228 

5.00% 

$10 0, 000-$149, 999 17. 40 % 25, 752 2. 83 9, 099 125, 000 1, 137, 375, 000 796, 162, 500 2 2. 5 % 179, 136, 563 62. 50 % 1 11, 

960, 352 

5, 038, 216 13, 258 7, 409 

4.50% 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 16. 20 % 23, 976 2. 83 8, 472 87, 500 741, 30 0, 000 518, 910, 000 30. 0 % 15 5, 673, 000 65. 0 0 % 10 1, 187, 450 

4, 553, 435 1 1, 982 6, 696 

4.50% 

$ 50, 000-$74, 999 21. 20 % 31, 376 2. 83 1 1, 086 65, 000 720, 590, 000 576, 472, 000 45. 0 % 259, 412, 400 67. 50 % 175, 103, 370 7, 879, 652 20, 735 1 1, 588 

4.50% 

$ 35, 000-$49, 999 13. 60 % 20, 128 2. 83 7, 112 42, 500 302, 260, 000 241, 80 8, 000 5 5. 0 % 132, 994, 400 70. 0 0 % 93, 096, 080 

2, 792, 882 7, 349 4, 107 

3.00% 

$ 25, 000-$34, 999 8. 60 % 12, 728 2. 83 4, 497 30, 000 134, 910, 000 12 1, 419, 000 65. 0 % 78, 92 2, 350 75. 0 0 % 59, 1 91, 763 

1, 775, 753 4, 673 2, 611 

3.00% 

$ 15, 000-$24, 999 7. 50 % 1 1, 100 2. 83 3, 922 20, 000 78, 440, 000 70, 596, 000 70. 0 % 49, 417, 200 80. 0 0 % 39, 53 3, 760 

197, 669 520 291 

0.50% 

CHART IIIB SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS 




Income Income Spending ForFor Shopper & Convenience Convenience 





$20 0, 00 0+ 2. 60 % 1, 040 1. 80 577 20 0, 000 115, 40 0, 000 69, 240, 000 15. 0 % 10, 386, 000 60. 00 % 6, 231, 600 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 1. 90 % 760 1. 80 422 175, 000 73, 850, 000 4 4, 310, 000 20. 0 % 8, 862, 000 60. 00 % 5, 317, 200 

$10 0, 000-$149, 999 9. 80 % 3, 920 1. 80 2, 177 125, 000 27 2, 125, 000 190, 487, 500 2 2. 5 % 42, 859, 688 62. 50 % 26, 78 7, 

305 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 14. 80 % 5, 920 1. 80 3, 288 87, 500 287, 70 0, 000 201, 390, 000 30. 0 % 60, 417, 000 65. 0 0 % 39, 271, 050 

$ 50, 000-$74, 999 25. 30 % 10, 120 1. 80 5, 622 65, 000 365, 430, 000 29 2, 344, 000 45. 0 % 13 1, 554, 800 67. 50 % 8 8, 79 9, 

490 

$ 35, 000-$49, 999 20. 4 0 % 8, 160 1. 80 4, 533 42, 500 192, 652, 500 154, 122, 000 5 5. 0 % 84, 76 7, 100 70. 00 % 59, 336, 970 

$ 25, 000-$34, 999 12. 50 % 5, 000 1. 80 2, 777 30, 000 83, 310, 000 74, 979, 000 65. 0 % 48, 736, 350 75. 0 0 % 36, 552, 263 

$ 15, 000-$24, 999 8. 20 % 3, 280 1. 80 1, 822 20, 000 36, 440, 000 32, 796, 000 70. 0 % 2 2, 957, 200 80. 00 % 18, 365, 760 

CHART IIIB SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS 





Convenience Convenience SF SF 

Goods Goods Sales Sales 


5. 0 0 % 31 1, 

580 819 458 

4. 0 0 % 21 2, 688 559 313 

3. 75 % 1, 004, 524 2, 643 1, 477 

3. 50 % 1, 374, 487 3, 617 2, 021 3. 25 % 2, 885, 983 7, 594 4, 244 3. 0 0 % 1, 780, 109 4, 684 2, 618 

2. 75 % 1, 005, 187 2, 645 1, 478 

0. 50 % 91, 829 241 135 

0. 10 % 6, 840 18 10 

$8, 673, 227 2 2, 820 12, 755 

4. 0 0 % 321, 840 846 473 

3. 50 % 485, 982 1, 278 715 

3. 25 % 2, 125, 481 5, 593 

3, 126 

3. 0 0 % 1, 846, 384 4, 858 2, 715 

2. 75 % 3, 308, 

539 8, 706 4, 865 

2. 50 % 1, 495, 533 3, 935 2, 199 

2. 25 % 84 4, 638 2, 222 1, 242 

0. 10 % 25, 150 66 37 

0. 0 0 % 0 0 0 

$10, 453, 546 27, 504 15, 373 

$19, 126, 773 50324 28127. 608 


CHART IIIC SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS 








Wi ckenburg 6, 500 

$20 0, 00 0+ 1. 90 % 124 2. 18 56 20 0, 000 1 1, 20 0, 000 6, 720, 000 15. 0 % 1, 008, 000 60. 00 % 604, 800 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 0. 9 0 % 59 2. 18 26 175, 000 4, 550, 000 2, 730, 000 20. 0 % 546, 000 60. 00 % 327, 600 

$100, 000-$149, 999 5. 80 % 377 2. 18 172 125, 000 21, 50 0, 000 15, 0 50, 000 2 2. 5 % 3, 386, 250 62. 50 % 2, 116, 406 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 1 1. 20 % 728 2. 18 333 87, 500 29, 137, 500 20, 396, 250 30. 0 % 6, 118, 875 65. 0 0 % 3, 97 7, 

269 

$50, 000-$74, 999 17. 90 % 1, 164 2. 18 533 65, 000 34, 645, 000 27, 716, 000 45. 0 % 12, 472, 200 67. 50 % 8, 418, 735 

$35, 000-$49, 999 18. 60 % 1, 209 2. 18 554 42, 500 23, 54 5, 000 18, 836, 000 5 5. 0 % 10, 359, 800 70. 00 % 7, 251, 860 

$25, 000-$34, 999 10. 9 0 % 709 2. 18 325 30, 000 9, 750, 000 8, 775, 000 65. 0 % 5, 703, 750 75. 0 0 % 4, 27 7, 

813 

$15, 000-$24, 999 14. 40 % 936 2. 18 429 20, 000 8, 580, 000 7, 72 2, 000 70. 0 % 5, 405, 400 80. 00 % 4, 324, 320 

CHART IIIC SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS 








3. 50 % 21, 168 55 31 

3. 50 % 1 1, 466 30 17 

3. 25 % 68, 783 181 101 

3. 0 0 % 119, 318 313 175 

2. 75 % 231, 515 609 340 

2. 50 % 18 1, 297 477 267 

2. 25 % 96, 251 253 142 

0. 10 % 4, 324 11 6 

0. 0 0 % 0 0 0 

$734, 122 1, 929 1, 080 

3. 50 % 75, 222 197 111 

3. 50 % 68, 796 181 101 

3. 25 % 30 3, 126 797 446 3. 0 0 % 280, 559 738 413 

2. 75 % 417, 422 1, 098 614 

2. 50 % 178, 679 470 263 

2. 25 % 85, 293 224 125 

0. 50 % 13, 860 36 20 

0. 0 0 % 0 0 0 

$1, 42 2, 

957 3, 741 2, 093 

$2, 157, 078. 61 5670 3172. 1744 


CHART IIID SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS 








Ant he m 23, 000 

$20 0, 00 0+ 3. 80 % 874 2. 72 321 20 0, 000 64, 20 0, 000 38, 520, 000 15. 0 % 5, 778, 000 60. 00 % 3, 46 6, 800 

$150, 000-$19 9, 999 5. 40 % 1, 242 2. 72 456 175, 000 79, 80 0, 000 47, 880, 000 20. 0 % 9, 576, 000 60. 00 % 5, 745, 600 

$10 0, 000-$149, 999 2 2. 70 % 5, 221 2. 72 1, 919 125, 000 239, 875, 000 167, 912, 500 2 2. 5 % 37, 780, 313 62. 50 % 23, 612, 695 

$75, 000 -$ $ 9 9, 999 26. 30 % 6, 049 2. 72 2, 223 87, 500 194, 512, 500 136, 158, 750 30. 0 % 40, 847, 625 65. 0 0 % 26, 550, 956 

$ 50, 000-$74, 999 21. 0 0 % 4, 830 2. 72 1, 775 65, 000 115, 375, 000 92, 30 0, 000 45. 0 % 41, 53 5, 000 67. 50 % 28, 036, 125 

$ 35, 000-$49, 999 8. 60 % 1, 978 2. 72 727 42, 500 30, 897, 500 24, 718, 000 5 5. 0 % 13, 594, 900 70. 00 % 9, 516, 430 

$ 25, 000-$34, 999 4. 20 % 966 2. 72 355 30, 000 10, 650, 000 9, 58 5, 000 65. 0 % 6, 230, 250 75. 0 0 % 4, 672, 688 

$ 15, 000-$24, 999 4. 10 % 943 2. 72 346 20, 000 6, 920, 000 6, 228, 000 70. 0 % 4, 359, 600 80. 00 % 3, 487, 680 

CHART IIID SALES VOLUME ESTIMATES FOR CONVENIENCE GOODS 








4. 0 0 % 138, 672 364 204 

3. 50 % 201, 096 

529 296 

3. 0 0 % 708, 381 1, 864 1, 042 

2. 50 % 663, 774 1, 746 976 

2. 25 % 630, 813 1, 660 928 

1. 75 % 16 6, 

538 438 245 

1. 25 % 58, 409 153 86 

0. 10 % 3, 488 9 5 

0. 0 0 % 0 0 0 

$2, 571, 169 6, 763 3, 781 

4. 0 0 % 50, 976 134 75 

3. 50 % 52, 038 136 77 

3. 0 0 % 334, 072 879 491 

2. 50 % 349, 355 919 514 

2. 25 % 870, 699 2, 291 

1, 280 

1. 75 % 38 3, 242 1, 008 564 

1. 25 % 208, 955 549 307 

0. 10 % 7, 187 18 11 

0. 0 0 % 0 0 0 

$2, 256, 525 5, 934 3, 318 

$4, 827, 694 12, 697 709 9. 55 


CHART IV SALES GROWTH PROJECTION ESTIMATES PEORIA 

SALES PROJECTI ON FOR SHOPPER AND CONVENI ENCE GOODS Good Year Pr oj ecti on and Modest Year Pr oj ecti on 

REGI ONAL SHOPPI NG CENTER 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

Esti mat 

ed Sal es over all tr ade ar eas 136, 814, 049 139, 550, 330 143, 736, 840 149, 486, 313 156, 960, 629 16 6, 

378, 267 

( 

) 

Gr owt h Assu mpti on Good Year Scenari o 1 3 1. 00 % 2. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 4. 0 0 % 5. 0 0 % 6. 0 0 % 

( 

) ( 

) ( 

) 

Low Sal es Perf or mance/ Sal es Effi ci ency Scenari o 

Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @ 380 Doll ars/ Sq. Ft . / Yea 360, 037 367, 238 378, 255 39 3, 385 413, 054 437, 838 

Modest Sal es Perf or mance/ Sal es Effi ci ency Scenari o 

Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @ 50 0 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Yea 273, 628 279, 101 287, 474 298, 973 31 3, 921 332, 757 

Opti mi sti c Sal es Perf or mance/ Sal es Effi ci ency Scenari o 

Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @ 680 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Yea 201, 197 205, 221 21 1, 378 219, 833 230, 824 24 4, 

674 

) ) 

1 Good Year Scenari o assu mes 1. 0 %-6. 0 % annual growt h. 

22 Modest Modest Growt Growt hh Year Year Scenari Scenari oo as assu su mes mes 1. 1. 0 0 %-3. % 3. 0 0 %annual %annual growt growt h. h. 

3 Assu mes 201 1 baseli n e, n ot adj ust ed f or i nfl ati on. 

) 

) 

Esti mat 

ed Sal es over all tr ade ar eas 136, 814, 049 139, 550, 330 143, 736, 840 148, 048, 945 152, 490, 413 157, 065, 126 

( 

) 

Gr owt h Assu mpti on Modest Gr owt h Year 2 3 1. 00 % 2. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 

( 

) 

( 

) 

( 

) 


Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @ 380 Doll ars/ Sq. Ft . / Yea 360, 037 367, 238 378, 255 389, 602 401, 291 413, 329 


Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @ 50 0 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Yea 273, 628 279, 101 287, 474 296, 098 304, 981 314, 130 


Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @680 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Year 201, 197 205, 221 21 1, 378 217, 719 224, 251 230, 978 


CHART IV SALES GROWTH PROJECTION ESTIMATES PEORIA 

Good Year Pr oj ecti on and Modest Year Pr oj ecti on 

SHOPPI NG CENTER 2017 2018 2019 20 20 2021 2022 Esti mat ed Sal es 176, 360, 963 186, 942, 621 198, 159, 178 210, 048, 729 2 22, 651, 652 236, 01 0, 

751 

Grow t h Assu mpti on Good Year Scenari o 1 3 

6. 0 0 % 6. 0 0 % 6. 0 0 % 6. 0 0 % 6. 0 0 % 6. 0 0 % 


Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @380 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Year 46 4, 108 491, 954 521, 472 552, 760 58 5, 

925 621, 081 


Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @50 0 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Year 352, 722 37 3, 885 396, 318 420, 097 445, 303 472, 022 Opti mi sti c Sal es Perf or mance/ Sal es Effi ci ency Scenari o 

Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @680 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Year 259, 354 274, 916 291, 411 308, 895 327, 429 347, 075 ) ) 

( 

1 Good Year Scenari o assu mes 1. 0 %-6. 0 % annual growt h. 

) 

2 Modest Growt h Year Scenari o assu mes 1. 0 %-3. 0 % annual ggrowt 

h. 

) ( 

) ( 

) 

3 Assu mes 201 1 baseli n e, n ot adj ust ed f or i nfl ati on. 

) 

Esti mat ed Sal es 16 1, 7 77, 080 16 6, 630, 392 17 1, 629, 304 176, 778, 183 182, 081, 528 187, 543, 974 

Growt h Assu mpti on Modest Growt h Year 2 3 

3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 3. 0 0 % 

( 

) 

( 

) ( 

) 


Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @380 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Year 425, 729 438, 501 451, 656 465, 206 479, 162 493, 537 Modest Sal es Perf or mance/ Sal es Effi ci ency Scenari o 

Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @50 0 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Year 32 3, 554 3 33, 261 34 3, 259 35 3, 556 364, 163 375, 088 


Shoppi ng Cent e r Si ze i n Sq. Ft. @680 Dol l ars/ Sq. Ft . / Year 237, 907 245, 045 25 2, 396 259, 968 267, 767 275, 800 


Peoria Sports Complex

Peoria Sports Complex – View From South

Peoria Sports Complex – View From North

Peoria Sports Complex – View From East

Peoria Sports Complex – View From West

COMPARISONS 

PEORIA SPORTS COMPLEX VS. KIERLAND COMMONS, THE GROVE, AMERICANA AND SANTANA ROW 

! The area surrounding the Peoria Sports Complex (PSC) is mainly comprised of households that make above 

$50,000 a year. 

! A significant percentage living closest to the Complex are more affluent ($100-150k). 

! The median household income within the PSC 1-mile radius (much or which is in Glendale) is significantly 

higher than the median incomes within 3 and 5 miles (not necessarily surprising, in general, as the search ring 

expands, it becomes more diluted). 

! However, the areas surrounding Kierland Commons (KC) in Scottsdale, though less populated than those 

surrounding the Peoria site, are all (within 1, 3, and 5 miles) mostly comprised of households that typically make 

between $100-150k each year – thus, the median incomes are more stable across the board for Kierland than 

those of Peoria. 

- Although the areas around Kierland Commons are not quite as heavily populated as those surrounding 

the PSC, the trade area for KC in Scottsdale may have a more solid customer base due to a higher 

overall income level. 

- The fact that there is a slightly greater population surrounding PSC than surrounding KC is not 

necessarily a plus or a minus. It is not always a promising fact, since typically in cities, the less wealthy 

an area is, the more tightly-packed it is in terms of non-wealthy citizens. So the extra padding of 

population could be made up mostly of people who would not necessarily end up frequenting a new 

shopping center as much or spending as much money. However, this is a very generalized statement, 

there are many exceptions to this observation. 

Strategic Planning Concepts International June, 2011

! Compared with Kierland Commons, median house values in Peoria are significantly lower, from $150-260k less. 

In spite of this there are still many households surrounding PSC which generate between $100-150k annually in 

income. 

- They therefore may be paying lower housing costs (lower mortgages than in Scottsdale) while making 

the same amount of money in annual income, and thus they should have, in theory anyway, more 

disposable income to spend on retail goods and services. Whether they actually do is another matter. 

! All comparison sites done for this study, in the Phoenix area, with the exception of Sun City and Sun City West, 

tend to have a slightly younger population than the Peoria site, with future projections trending younger as the 

years go by. For example, within a 3-mile radius, the median age around PSC is 45, while around KC it is 41 

and around the three Californian shopping centers (The Grove, Americana at Brand, Santana Row), it is 

between 35-37. This is not a large difference, of course, but younger populations do typically buy more, and so 

are typically better target consumers, at least for retail goods. 

- However, considering the slightly older population in Peoria (and with the retirement developments of 

Sun City and Sun City West in mind), there should perhaps be some restaurants or shops in the center 

that have something to offer the older consumer. 

! With the exception of Kierland Commons, the other similar format shopping centers compared (The Grove, 

Americana at Brand, Santana Row) are surrounded by significantly higher populations than the Peoria Sports 

Complex – however, this is also a product of them all (other than KC) being located in California, where the 

population is, in general, more tightly packed. This does, though, give the California shopping centers a much 

broader customer base, which may mean that Peoria may not be able to compete at the same level. 

! An interesting comparison to note, although on rather a different scale, is that The Grove (in Los Angeles) is 

surrounded more closely by the wealthier people in the area, just as the PSC is, with lower-income populations 

typically located further out. At The Grove, the median income level drops as the radius expands outwards from 

the shopping center, from $60k down to $49k, and when 5 miles out, the largest single group of households 

Strategic Planning Concepts International June, 2011

actually belong in the “

KIERLAND COMMONS (SCOTTSDALE, AZ) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Kierland 

Commons 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











year, with 26.5% (20.3% at $75- 

100k, and 18% at $50-75k). 

• Median: $86,480 

• Average: $107,300 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$464,047 



$297,449. 

Strategic Planning Concepts International June 2010

Kierland 

Commons 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












$50-75k, 16.5% make $75-100k). 

• Median: $86,702 

• Average: $108,453 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$482,236 



$234,410. 


Kierland 

Commons 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











with 20.9% (19.2% make $50- 

75k and 15.8% make $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $81,305 

• Average: $110,933 




year, with 20.6% (14.5% 


14.4% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$440,981 



$220,558. 


SANTANA ROW (SAN JOSE, CA) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Santana 

Row 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












(17.2% at $100-150k, and 

10% at $150-200k). 

• Median: $78,653 

• Average: $97,531 





(19.1% at $50-75k, and 

18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$673,746 




Santana 

Row 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











per year, with 17.6% (17% 

at $100-150k, and 13.2% 

at $75-100k). 

• Median: $79,732 

• Average: $106,286 





(14.5% between $75-100k, 

and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$680,397 




Santana 

Row 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












(15.1% at $50-75k, and 

12.6% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $85,657 

• Average: $116,450 





(14.5% between $100- 

150k, and 14.4% at $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$711,400 




AMERICANA AT BRAND (GLENDALE, CA) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Americana at 

Brand 


Peoria Sports 

Center 










income level is

Americana at 

Brand 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












(12.2% at $100-150k, and 

11.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $50,872 

• Average: $66,847 





(14.5% between $75-100k, 

and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$608,535 




Americana at 

Brand 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












(11.5% at $100-150k, and 

10.5% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $47,031 

• Average: $66,280 





(14.5% between $100- 

150k, and 14.4% at $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$622,026 




THE GROVE (LOS ANGELES) VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


The Grove 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












(15.7% at $100-150k, and 

12.7% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $60,479 

• Average: $81,557 





(19.1% at $50-75k, and 

18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$1,000,001 




The Grove 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












(15.4% at

The Grove 


Peoria Sports 

Center 










income level is

CHANDLER FASHION CENTER VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Chandler 

Fashion Center 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











year, with 23.5% (22.3% at 

$100-150k, and 19% at $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $76,385 

• Average: $88,948 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$246,562 



$297,449. 



Center 


Peoria Sports 

Center 












$50-75k, 19% make $75-100k). 

• Median: $81,373 

• Average: $96,065 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$287,331 



$234,410. 



Center 


Peoria Sports 

Center 










income level is $100-150k, 

with 22.8% (21.9% make $50- 

75k and 18.8% make $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $81,305 

• Average: $110,933 




year, with 20.6% (14.5% 


14.4% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$273,307 



$220,558. 


BILTMORE FASHION PARK VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Biltmore 

Fashion Park 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











year, with 20.1% (17.3% at $35- 

50k, and 14% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $59,064 

• Average: $85,991 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$366,767 



$297,449. 



Park 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











with 19.4% (17.5% make $35- 

50k, 11.6% make $25-35k). 

• Median: $48,608 

• Average: $71,563 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$272,636 



$234,410. 



Park 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











with 18.9% (16.8% make $35- 

50k and 12.6% make

SCOTTSDALE FASHION SQUARE VS. PEORIA SPORTS CENTER: 


Scottsdale 



Peoria Sports 

Center 











year, with 20.7% (18.5% at $35- 

50k, and 11.2% at $25-35k). 

• Median: $51,185 

• Average: $77,343 




year, with 35.4% (19.1% at $50- 

75k, and 18.3% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $90,250 

• Average: $98,216 



$286,648 



$297,449. 


Scottsdale 



Peoria Sports 

Center 











with 21.4% (16.3% make $35- 

505k, 13.9% make $75-100k). 

• Median: $59,617 

• Average: $83,932 




with 20.7% (14.5% between $75- 

100k, and 15.1% at $100-150k). 

• Median: $67,582 

• Average: $81,265 



$302,122 



$234,410. 



Square 


Peoria Sports 

Center 











with 20.2% (16.3% make $35- 

50k and 12.6% make $75- 

100k). 

• Median: $55,724 

• Average: $82,249 




year, with 20.6% (14.5% 


14.4% at $75-100k). 

• Median: $65,607 

• Average: $78,507 



$310,972 



$220,558.

PEORIA SPORTS COMPLEX - P83

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