Down to the wire : confronting climate collapse / David - Index of
Down to the wire : confronting climate collapse / David - Index of
Down to the wire : confronting climate collapse / David - Index of
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preface S xi<br />
carbon footprint from 22 <strong>to</strong>ns per person per year <strong>to</strong> 1–2 <strong>to</strong>ns or<br />
even less. But even <strong>the</strong>n, “when this centuries-long <strong>climate</strong> s<strong>to</strong>rm<br />
subsides, it will leave behind a new, warmer <strong>climate</strong> state that will<br />
persist for thousands <strong>of</strong> years. That’s <strong>the</strong> basic outlook” (Archer,<br />
2009, p. 45).<br />
Even in <strong>the</strong> near term it is already <strong>to</strong>o late, however, <strong>to</strong> avert<br />
signifi cant disasters, and that is a diffi cult message <strong>to</strong> convey without<br />
inducing paralysis or denial even among those willing <strong>to</strong> listen.<br />
It is a great deal easier for all <strong>of</strong> us <strong>to</strong> hit <strong>the</strong> snooze but<strong>to</strong>n<br />
on <strong>the</strong> alarm clock, go back <strong>to</strong> sleep, and hope that it all goes<br />
away, or <strong>to</strong> pretend that dire circumstances present only opportunities.<br />
Climate change presents opportunities for some, certainly,<br />
but for <strong>the</strong> Tuvalu islanders, <strong>the</strong> victims <strong>of</strong> fl oods and droughts<br />
and <strong>of</strong> larger hurricanes and typhoons, those living in low-lying<br />
areas like Bangladesh, and <strong>the</strong> 150,000 who die each year in <strong>climate</strong><br />
change–driven wea<strong>the</strong>r events, <strong>the</strong> word “opportunity” has<br />
a peculiarly hollow sound. It will as well for <strong>the</strong> 250,000,000 or<br />
more <strong>climate</strong> refugees that <strong>the</strong> United Nations estimates will be<br />
homeless by midcentury.<br />
Through <strong>the</strong> coming decades and centuries <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> bottleneck,<br />
great leadership at all levels will be essential. We will need<br />
leaders fi rst, with <strong>the</strong> courage <strong>to</strong> help <strong>the</strong> public understand and<br />
face what will be increasingly diffi cult circumstances. The primary<br />
cause is <strong>climate</strong> destabilization, described in four consensus<br />
reports by <strong>the</strong> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change over<br />
20 years and hundreds <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r scientifi c reports. Often, however,<br />
we dismiss bearers <strong>of</strong> bad news or inconvenient truths until <strong>the</strong><br />
point <strong>of</strong> crisis, when reality can no longer be evaded. The mythical<br />
fi gure <strong>of</strong> Cassandra and <strong>the</strong> Old Testament prophet Jeremiah<br />
were fated <strong>to</strong> be ignored until it was <strong>to</strong>o late <strong>to</strong> avoid <strong>the</strong> dire<br />
things <strong>the</strong>y fore<strong>to</strong>ld. The same disbelief has greeted <strong>the</strong> increasingly<br />
frequent and rigorous warnings in our time. One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
earliest, for example, was issued by <strong>the</strong> Council on Environmental<br />
Quality in <strong>the</strong> Carter administration and published in 1980 as <strong>the</strong>