Proceedings World Bioenergy 2010

The primary energy supply in Pakistan is
concentrated to only a few sources. The average share of
Oil and Gas between 1997-2007 was 44.36% and 32.58%
respectively i.e. 77% of the total supply (relatively,
Hydroelectricity and coal accounted for 18% and other
sources accounted for 5%). The share now stands at 31%
for oil (82% is imported) and 48% for gas i.e. the total
share has grown to 79%, where the share of oil decreased
to 31 percent (relatively hydroelectricity and coal account
for 20% and 1 percent from nuclear and imported energy)
[16; 24].
Looking at total consumption of each source, the
average percentage share of oil in energy consumption
was 40.9% during 1998 to 2007, followed by gas 34.6%,
electricity 15.7%, coal 7.5% and LPG 1.3% [16]. Noting
consumption of energy by sector, the industrial sector
consumed 37.3% of the energy, followed by transport
sector with a share of 32.2% and domestic sector with a
share of 22.2%. The agriculture sector, government and
the commercial sector respectively consumed only 2.6%,
2.5% and 3.3%.
During the 1980s, about 86% of the energy demand
was met by domestic sources and remaining 14% gap
was filled by the imports [7]. At present Pakistan meets
75% of its energy needs by domestic resources including
gas, oil and hydroelectricity production [24]. Only 25%
energy needs were managed through imports. Oil and
Gas have taken major share in the energy mix and are
likely to maintain their dominance [16].
It can be seen that from the above that Pakistan’s
energy supply is dependent largely on Oil and Gas and
electricity, and the share of imported energy is increasing
over time. It can be noted therefore that shortages or
difficulties in imports can have disastrous effects on
industry and transport, and therefore cripple the industry.
2.2 Energy crisis:
During the mid 200s, the average economic growth
rate of 7.6% in the 2000s. It was believed that assuming
the growth of 6-7 percent which Pakistan had during the
mid 2000s, energy demand will growth at 8% or rougly
double within a decade [24]. However insufficient
generation and exploration, limited planning and
negligence of successive regimes, and inefficient use and
wastage of energy resources [31], has created an acute
energy crisis in Pakistan since 2006. [24; 26; 7].
[16]
Table I: Energy Supply and Demand Gap (MTOE:
Millions of Tons Oil equivalent)
On the other hand according to Pakistan’s Energy
Security Plan for 2005-2030 [16], the total primary
energy consumption in Pakistan is expected to increase
seven times to 360 MTOE and over eight-fold increase in
the requirement of power by 2030 (Table I).
As none of these problems were dealt with, Pakisan’s
GDP growth rate plummeted to just 2.3% in 2008-2009
growth, and 4.1% 2009-2010. Due to energy shortages, th
large scale manufaturing sector declined by 7.7% last
70 world bioenergy 2010
year, while overall manufacturing declined by 3.3% [7].
It must be noted that as GDP growth declines, the
estimations of the widening gap already discussed might
not materialize, but severe shortages will probabaly
remain. In paticular Pakistan is likely to face a major
shortage of natural gas, electricity and oil, the three major
sources, in the next three to four year that could choke
the economic growth. The biggest shortfall is expected in
the natural gas supplies [16].
The demand-supply gap has therefore increased and
is likely to increase in the future, exerting strong pressure
on the energy resources in the Country [16; 33].
2.2.1 Gas
Natural gas has emerged as the most important fuel
in the recent past and the trends indicate its dominant
share in the future energy mix as well [26].
Demand for natural gas in Pakistan increased by
roughly 10 percent annually from 2000-01 to 2007-08,
reaching around 3,200 cubic feet per day (MMCFD)
against the total production of 3,774 MMCFD while by
2008-2009, the demand for natural gas exceeded the
available supply, with production of 4,528 MMCFD gas
against demand for 4,731 MMCFD, indicating a shortfall
of 203 MMCFD [30]. Hagler Bailly, a global
management consulting firm warned in a 2006 study that
Pakistan is going to witness gas shortage starting in 2007,
and defecit will grow until it will cripple the economy by
2025, when shortage will be 11,092 MMCFD (Million
standard cubic feet per day) against total 13,259 MMCFD
production i.e. demand will be 24351 [8]. This winter
alone, the country dealt with a shortfall of 700 MMCFD
of gas due to increasing use of heaters and geysers [17].
There are also about 2718 Compressed Natural Gas
(CNG) stations in the country and approximately 1.9
million vehicles are using CNG. Pakistan has seen an
investment of Rs 70 billion has been made, creating some
100,000 job [24]. With roughly 29,167 vehincles are
converted run on CNG every month, Pakistan has now
become the third largest CNG consumer in the world
after Argentina and Brazil, and the biggest in Asia [20;
28], However due to a shortage of Natural Gas, CNG
stations are required to go on ‘forced holidays’ where two
days in a week they are not allowed to sell gas. Gas
powered generators for domestic use, have therefore been
banned as well [37].
Industry too has been made to cut their gas usage for
3 days every week, otherwise their gas supply will be cut.
In winters, gas supplies to industry are cut for upto 2-3
weeks, when demand is highest. During the same period,
many residential areas, even within major urban centers
do not have access to gas for weeks at a time [34].
2.2.2 Oil
Oil is the second biggest source of primary energy for
Pakistan, and imports 82% of all its needs [24]. The issue
with oil has to do more with trade deficits than depletion
of resources. Between 2008-2009 (July-March)
Petroleum products and crude oil made up 28.5% of
Pakistan’s imports, totaling to about 7.4 billion and by
2009-2010, the share in imports has increased to 29.2%
or $7.3 billion [19].
The situation reached its worst point in 2008. The
2007-2008 Pakistan Oil bill was an all time high of $11
billion, due to record world oil prices, and the
depreciation in the rupee’s value. This put huge stress on
the trade and current account deficit, and therefore