Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap 2005-2030 - Federation of ...
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Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap 2005-2030 - Federation of ...

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap 2005-2030 - Federation of ... Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap 2005-2030 - Federation of ...

fas.org
06.01.2013 Views

UAS ROADMAP 2005 over present computers. Ultimately, quantum computing may replace traditional computing based on ones and zeros with using nuclear magnetic resonance to encode the spin of atoms. Speed (MIPS) Speed (MIPS) 1012 1012 109 109 106 106 103 103 1 10-3 10-3 10 1012 1012 109 109 106 106 103 103 1 10-3 10-3 10-6 10-6 -6 ENIAC iBM 7090 IBM 360/65 IBM 1620 Mainframes Intel 4004 Cray Red Storm Cray CS6400 Pentium Intel 80286 Sun SS1 Pentium 4 Personal Computers 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2030 Optical Fiber Video Channel Audio Channel FIGURE 4.1-1. TREND IN PROCESSOR SPEED. 1985 PC Book CD IBM Deep Blue Lizard 1995 PC Monkey Human Mouse Library of Congress 10-6 10-3 1 103106 109 1012 10-6 10-3 1 103106 109 1012 Memory (Megabytes) Cray Red Storm FIGURE 4.1-2. RELATIONSHIP OF PROCESSOR SPEED AND MEMORY. Recommended Investment Strategy: Rely on commercial markets (personal and commercial computers) to drive processor technology. Focus DoD research on radiation–tolerant integrated circuit components and algorithms. 4.2 COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES The principal issue of communications technologies is flexibility, adaptability, and cognitive Page 49

UAS ROADMAP 2005 controllability of the bandwidth, frequency, and information/data (e.g. differentiated services, separate routing of data based on priority, latency, etc) flows. This means that the systems will be net-centric and that network services like C2, data management and flow control, etc., will have to be integrated into the systems and concepts of operations. In-flight entertainment and finance-based systems will not handle these issues well for military applications. The personal information services providers might provide technology paths forward, but major portions of the government will need to invest in the net-centric solutions required by the U.S. Government. One way of addressing bandwidth and spectrum constraints is by re-using certain communications paths in new ways (e.g. tactical radios used as orderwires for directional links, tightly coupled RF backup links for free space optics (lasercomm), etc.). Communications technologies might be repartitioned to address apertures, RF Front ends, software defined modems/bandwidth efficient waveforms, multiple signals in space, crossbanding, digital interfaces, new communications approaches (e.g. free space optics), and hybrid approaches. 4.2.1 4.2.2 Data Links Airborne data link rates and processor speeds are in a race to enable future UA capabilities. Today, and for the near-term, the paradigm is to relay virtually all airborne data to the ground and process it there for interpretation and decision-making. Eventually, onboard processing power will outstrip data link capabilities and allow UA to relay the results of their data to the ground for decision making. At that point, the requirement for data link rates in certain applications, particularly imagery collection, should drop significantly. Meanwhile, data compression will remain relevant as long as band-limited communications exist, but it is unlikely compression algorithms alone will solve the near term throughput requirements of advanced sensors. A technology that intentionally discards information is not the preferred technique. For now, compression is a concession to inadequate bandwidth. In the case of radio frequency (RF) data links, limited spectrum and the requirement to minimize airborne system size, weight, and power (SWAP) have been strong contributors for limiting data rates. Rates up to 10 Gbps (40 times currently fielded capabilities) are considered possible at current bandwidths by using more bandwidth-efficient modulation methods. At gigahertz frequencies however, RF use becomes increasingly constrained by frequency congestion. This is especially true for the 1-8 GHz range which covers L, S, and C bands. Currently fielded digital data links provide an efficiency varying between 0.92 and 1.5 bps/Hz, where the theoretical maximum is 1.92. Airborne optical data links, or lasercom, will potentially offer data rates two to five orders of magnitude greater than those of the best future RF systems. However, lasercom data rates have held steady for two decades because their key technical challenge was adequate pointing, acquisition, and tracking (PAT) technology to ensure the laser link was both acquired and maintained. Although mature RF systems are viewed as lower risk, and therefore attract investment dollars more easily, Missile Defense Agency funding in the 1990s allowed a series of increasingly complex demonstrations at Gbps rates. The small apertures (3 to 5 inches) and widespread availability of low power semiconductor lasers explains why lasercom systems typically weigh 30 to 50 percent that of comparable RF systems and consume less power. The smaller apertures also provide for lower signatures, greater security, and provide more jam resistance. Although lasercom could surpass RF in terms of airborne data transfer rate, RF will continue to dominate at the lower altitudes for some time into the future because of its better all-weather capability. Thus, both RF and optical technology development should continue to progress out to 2025. Network-Centric Communications There are several areas of networking technology development that should be identified as critical to the migration path of UAS and their ability to provide network services, whether they be transit networking or stub networking platforms. Highflying UAS, such as the Global Hawk or Predator, have the ability to Page 50

UAS ROADMAP <strong>2005</strong><br />

over present computers. Ultimately, quantum computing may replace traditional computing based on<br />

ones and zeros with using nuclear magnetic resonance to encode the spin <strong>of</strong> atoms.<br />

Speed (MIPS)<br />

Speed (MIPS)<br />

1012 1012 109 109 106 106 103 103 1<br />

10-3 10-3 10<br />

1012 1012 109 109 106 106 103 103 1<br />

10-3 10-3 10-6 10-6 -6 ENIAC<br />

iBM 7090<br />

IBM 360/65<br />

IBM 1620<br />

Mainframes<br />

Intel 4004<br />

Cray Red Storm<br />

Cray CS6400<br />

Pentium<br />

Intel 80286<br />

Sun SS1<br />

Pentium 4<br />

Personal Computers<br />

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 <strong>2030</strong><br />

Optical Fiber<br />

Video Channel<br />

Audio Channel<br />

FIGURE 4.1-1. TREND IN PROCESSOR SPEED.<br />

1985 PC<br />

Book CD<br />

IBM Deep Blue<br />

Lizard<br />

1995 PC<br />

Monkey Human<br />

Mouse<br />

Library <strong>of</strong> Congress<br />

10-6 10-3 1 103106 109 1012 10-6 10-3 1 103106 109 1012 Memory (Megabytes)<br />

Cray Red Storm<br />

FIGURE 4.1-2. RELATIONSHIP OF PROCESSOR SPEED AND MEMORY.<br />

Recommended Investment Strategy: Rely on commercial markets (personal and commercial<br />

computers) to drive processor technology. Focus DoD research on radiation–tolerant integrated circuit<br />

components and algorithms.<br />

4.2 COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES<br />

The principal issue <strong>of</strong> communications technologies is flexibility, adaptability, and cognitive<br />

Page 49

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