Natural Hazards: Causes and Effects - Disaster Management Center ...
Natural Hazards: Causes and Effects - Disaster Management Center ... Natural Hazards: Causes and Effects - Disaster Management Center ...
The total number of dead was estimated at 1,400, with over 4,000 injured. The total number affected was 1.2 million (23 percent of total population). The total damaged was estimated at $830 million. 3 Geographical Distribution Tropical cyclones are known around the world by various names: hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean, typhoons in the West Pacific, baguios in the Philippines, cordonazos in Mexico, tainos in Haiti (see Table 5.1). A tropical cyclone is essentially a rotating storm in the tropical oceans. It is conventionally defined as a circular storm with rotating wind speeds in excess of 64 knots (32 meters per second). The life span of a tropical cyclone is, on average, about six to nine days until it enters land or recurves into temperate latitudes, but this may vary from a few hours to as much as three to four weeks. Tropical cyclones form in the oceans between 5 to 30 degrees north and south of the equator. They are found in all oceans of the world, with the probable exception of the South Atlantic and the South Pacific east of 140 deg. W longitude (See Fig. 5.1). 4 No two tropical cyclones follow the same track; some recurve, some do not; some loop; some slow to a standstill and some will accelerate. The movement of a tropical cyclone is generally 12 knots or less. It is important to be aware of the regional names given in the above table so that, for example, what is described as a severe cyclone in the Bay of Bengal will be understood as essentially the same phenomenon as that which is called a hurricane when it occurs in the north Atlantic. Natural Preconditions for Disaster Occurrence Cyclones are born in the hot, humid late-summer environment of the tropics (June to August in the Caribbean, November to April in the South Pacific). As the sun warms the oceans, evaporation and conduction transfer heat to the atmosphere so rapidly that air and water temperatures seldom differ by more than 1 degree F. The water vapor generated by such evaporation is the fuel that drives a tropical storm, because as the vapor condenses into clouds and precipitation it pumps enormous amounts of heat into the cyclone. The fuel supply is controlled by the evaporation rate—which explains why cyclones cannot develop when the ocean temperature is below about 24 degrees Centigrade (76 degrees F). The frequent products of this mix of heat and moisture are several thunderstorms that can become the seedling for a tropical cyclone—but it must be nurtured further. The trigger for most Atlantic hurricanes is an easterly wave, a westward-migrating low-pressure center that may have begun as an African thunderstorm. Typhoons in the Pacific and Indian oceans, and a few hurricanes in the Atlantic, emerge from waves in the equatorial trough, the calm, cloudy doldrums that separate the trade winds of the two hemispheres. 5 To develop and mature into a tropical storm, storm seedlings must overcome many obstacles. In fact only about nine of the more than 1000 seedlings tracked each year in the Atlantic will evolve into gale-force tropical storms or full-fledged cyclones. The sole difference between harmless thunderstorms and a dangerous cyclone is the rotation that organizes weather systems. This spin, which meteorologists call vorticity, is ever-present in temperate latitudes, where the Coriolis effect of the earth’s rotation is pronounced. But in the tropics the weak Coriolis effect must be augmented by the wind itself. (The Coriolis effect is the
force caused by the earth’s rotation that deflects a moving body to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere.) When two wind currents move side by side, the faster current tends to curl around the slower one. If the faster current is on the right (viewed from upwind), the curl is to the left, yielding positive vorticity in the Northern Hemisphere because it adds to the counterclockwise Coriolis effect; a right-hand curl creates negative vorticity. A curving wind also possesses vorticity— positive for a left-hand turn, negative for a right turn. When positive vorticity becomes strong enough to spin a storm seedling, it starts a chain reaction. The thunderstorms, not revitalized by a steady influx of warm, moist air, organize around a deepening low-pressure center, called a tropical depression. This dramatically increases the likelihood of cyclone formation; fully 70 percent of these depressions develop into cyclones. (See Fig. 5.2.) The depression becomes a tropical storm when its winds reach gale force, 62 kilometers per hour (40 miles per hour). The storm often already has as much total energy as a cyclone, but its winds are widely distributed and hence much slower; the ring of maximum wind may be as much as 320 kilometers (200 miles) across. The final step to cyclone status merely concentrates this energy. As pressure falls at the storm center, the ring of maximum wind contracts dramatically, until it is perhaps 50 kilometers (30 miles) in diameter. Outside this circle the velocity drops rapidly. 6 Disaster Event When the cyclone-force winds move onto land the storm becomes the potential disaster. The lower the atmospheric pressure in the center of the storm, the more violent the action of wind, storm surge, and waves is likely to be. The storms can be classified by intensity, as is shown below. The Beaufort scale (Table 5.2) is used to estimate the velocity of the wind by observing the effects of rising winds on the ocean surface and a variety of familiar objects. Another standard relating cyclone intensity to damage potential has been developed by the National Hurricane Center in the United States. It has been adapted from the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. This descriptive scale, over a range of categories 1 through 5, is shown in the following Table 5.3. Flooding High winds are, of course, only a part of the problems that are brought by the storm. Devastating floods from extremely heavy rainfall often accompany tropical cyclones. Flash floods of great volume and short duration may result from the cyclone’s rain, especially in hilly or mountainous terrain. Runoff from the intense rainfall accumulates quickly in restricted valleys and flows rapidly downstream, often as a large “wave.” Flood flows frequently contain large concentrations of sediment and debris. The damage generated by these floods is increased where they cause mudslides that either cover or undercut roads, erode agricultural soil and contribute to long-term serious environmental degradation. Tidal floods can also be caused by the combination of waves generated by cyclone winds and flood runoff resulting from the heavy rains that accompany cyclones. These floods may extend over large distances along a coastline. Their duration is usually short, being dependent upon the elevation of the tide, which rises and falls twice daily. 7
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force caused by the earth’s rotation that deflects a moving body to the right in the Northern<br />
Hemisphere <strong>and</strong> to the left in the Southern Hemisphere.)<br />
When two wind currents move side by side, the faster current tends to curl around the slower<br />
one. If the faster current is on the right (viewed from upwind), the curl is to the left, yielding<br />
positive vorticity in the Northern Hemisphere because it adds to the counterclockwise Coriolis<br />
effect; a right-h<strong>and</strong> curl creates negative vorticity. A curving wind also possesses vorticity—<br />
positive for a left-h<strong>and</strong> turn, negative for a right turn.<br />
When positive vorticity becomes strong enough to spin a storm seedling, it starts a chain<br />
reaction. The thunderstorms, not revitalized by a steady influx of warm, moist air, organize<br />
around a deepening low-pressure center, called a tropical depression. This dramatically<br />
increases the likelihood of cyclone formation; fully 70 percent of these depressions develop into<br />
cyclones. (See Fig. 5.2.)<br />
The depression becomes a tropical storm when its winds reach gale force, 62 kilometers per<br />
hour (40 miles per hour). The storm often already has as much total energy as a cyclone, but<br />
its winds are widely distributed <strong>and</strong> hence much slower; the ring of maximum wind may be as<br />
much as 320 kilometers (200 miles) across. The final step to cyclone status merely<br />
concentrates this energy. As pressure falls at the storm center, the ring of maximum wind<br />
contracts dramatically, until it is perhaps 50 kilometers (30 miles) in diameter. Outside this<br />
circle the velocity drops rapidly. 6<br />
<strong>Disaster</strong> Event<br />
When the cyclone-force winds move onto l<strong>and</strong> the storm becomes the potential disaster. The<br />
lower the atmospheric pressure in the center of the storm, the more violent the action of wind,<br />
storm surge, <strong>and</strong> waves is likely to be. The storms can be classified by intensity, as is shown<br />
below.<br />
The Beaufort scale (Table 5.2) is used to estimate the velocity of the wind by observing the<br />
effects of rising winds on the ocean surface <strong>and</strong> a variety of familiar objects.<br />
Another st<strong>and</strong>ard relating cyclone intensity to damage potential has been developed by the<br />
National Hurricane <strong>Center</strong> in the United States. It has been adapted from the Saffir/Simpson<br />
hurricane scale. This descriptive scale, over a range of categories 1 through 5, is shown in the<br />
following Table 5.3.<br />
Flooding<br />
High winds are, of course, only a part of the problems that are brought by the storm.<br />
Devastating floods from extremely heavy rainfall often accompany tropical cyclones. Flash<br />
floods of great volume <strong>and</strong> short duration may result from the cyclone’s rain, especially in hilly or<br />
mountainous terrain. Runoff from the intense rainfall accumulates quickly in restricted valleys<br />
<strong>and</strong> flows rapidly downstream, often as a large “wave.” Flood flows frequently contain large<br />
concentrations of sediment <strong>and</strong> debris.<br />
The damage generated by these floods is increased where they cause mudslides that either<br />
cover or undercut roads, erode agricultural soil <strong>and</strong> contribute to long-term serious<br />
environmental degradation.<br />
Tidal floods can also be caused by the combination of waves generated by cyclone winds <strong>and</strong><br />
flood runoff resulting from the heavy rains that accompany cyclones. These floods may extend<br />
over large distances along a coastline. Their duration is usually short, being dependent upon<br />
the elevation of the tide, which rises <strong>and</strong> falls twice daily. 7