IMS Company Profiles - Report Buyer

IMS COM PANY PRO FILES TAKEDA
An a lyst Com ment
In Feb ru ary 2009, an a lysts at Credit Suisse re it er ated a ‘Neu tral’ rat ing and tar get price of Yen4,900 (on
par with the phar ma ceu ti cal sec tor av er age) to Takeda. Fol low ing the re port of nine month re sults, where
the Mil len nium ac qui si tion and con sol i da tion re flected in a 12% rise in sales to Yen1,203 bil lion al though
Takeda re ported a sharp 41% de cline in prof its. Takeda’s full year guid ance has been left un changed and
the an a lysts are also main tain ing their fore casts, adopt ing a ‘wait and see’ ap proach un til one-time fac -
tors drop out the pic ture. The strong Yen had a year-on-year neg a tive im pact on sales (Yen55.2 bil lion)
and net profit (Yen9 bil lion) but the an a lysts be lieve that ex clud ing the for ex im pact, in real terms, sales
of Takeda’s four stra te gic prod ucts (Actos, Takepron/Prevacid, Blopress and Leuplin) are slow ing, add ing
that even if full fis cal 2008 (end ing March 2009) guid ance is reached, re cov ery in earn ings from fis cal
2009 (end ing March 2010) on wards could slow, al though from this time they ex pect a re cov ery in profit
as in-pro cess R&D and other fac tors wind down. The ap proval of Kapidex, the suc ces sor to Prevacid in the
US has had vir tu ally no im pact on Takeda’s share price and the an a lysts are con cerned about the risk
from de creas ing sales of Actos in the US to gether with the de lays in ap proval of SYR 322, which could help
to off set that risk. Re gard ing the Mil len nium ac qui si tion, the an a lysts com mented that the overall picture
from this is currently hard to determine but could impact the investment stance.
An a lysts at Mor gan Stan ley, writ ing in Feb ru ary 2009 main tained their ‘Over weight’ rat ing and ‘At trac -
tive’ in dus try view with a price tar get of Yen6,800. They com mented that the strong Yen would soften the
size of the loss for the merged Takeda (with TAP and Mil len nium ac qui si tion). The fo cus will now be on the
sales trends of Actos and Prevacid, the launches of Kapidex (ap proved in Jan u ary) and TMX 67 for gout
(ap proved in Feb ru ary) and the ap proval of DPP IV in hib i tor SYR 322 for di a be tes, now de layed un til June
26, 2009. The lat est ap prov als mean that TPNA will now have two new drug launches in the first half of
2009 al though the de lay to ap proval of alogliptin, which re ceived a rec om men da tion from the FDA panel
No vem ber, is a blow for Takeda, al though the an a lysts pointed out one source of light on the pros pects of
its ap proval from the April 2009 FDA panel for Endocrinologic and Met a bolic Drugs Ad vi sory Com mit tee
where Novo Nordisk’s GLP1 ag o nist liraglutide will be dis cussed and there is a pos si bil ity that other
DDP-IV in hib i tors in clud ing alogliptin and AstraZeneca’s saxagliptin may also be discussed given the
extended discussion period from one to three days.
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