Pearl Harbor: The Seeds and Fruits of Infamy - Ludwig von Mises ...

Joint Congressional Committee, Pearl Harbor Attack: Part 2 715
Short thought that July 8 message, “when they were pointing out
action of the Japanese against Russia, was a rather defi nite prediction,
and was the only prediction that the War Department
ever made direct to me.” 124 Short said that “at no time after July 8
did I ever have an Army message that indicated any probable line
of action by the Japanese.” 125
He said he was advised on October 16, through a Navy message
to Kimmel, that “hostilities between Japan and Russia are a
strong possibility. Since the U.S. and Britain are held responsible
by Japan for her present desperate situation there is also a possibility
that Japan may attack these two powers.” 126 On October
20 Short had a message from the War Department that appeared
to confl ict. “Tension between United States and Japan remains
strained,” it said, but according to the War Department’s estimate
of the Japanese situation, “no repeat no abrupt change in Japanese
foreign policy appears imminent.” 127
Short also testifi ed that on October 17 one of Short’s intelligence
offi cers, Lieutenant Colonel George W. Bicknell, had
prepared a report on the situation. “Following the principles of
defeating one opponent at a time,” he had written,
it is believed that Japan, if faced with certain British military
resistance to her plans, will unhesitatingly attack the British;
and do so without a simultaneous attack on American possessions,
because of no known binding agreement between the
British and Americans for joint military action against Japan,
36), varies slightly in punctuation, etc., and is dated July 7 (not July 8), 1941.
124Ibid., part 7, p. 3180.
125Ibid., p. 3072.
126Ibid., p. 2933. See part 14, p. 1327, October 16, 1941, Navy Message
162203.
127Ibid., part 7, p. 2933. See part 14, p. 1327, War Department October 20,
1941, message. Th is telegram as transcribed in Roberts Commission Report
(part 24, p. 2164, Exhibit 36) is dated October 18 (not 20), 1941.