The Trumpet Newspaper Issue 624 (May 29 - June 11 2024)

Page2 TheTrumpet MAY 29 - JUNE 11 2024
News
South Africans go to the polls
to choose a new government:
what’s different this time
Continued from Page 1<
South Africa’s seventh general election since democracy in 1994, set for 29 May 2024, takes place
under circumstances different from any other election in the history of the nation. Some view the hotly
contested national and provincial elections as a watershed moment for the country. We asked political
scientist Dirk Kotze to explain the changed circumstances.
There’s a new electoral law in place.
What does this mean for the ballot
paper and voters’ choices?
The new electoral system means that
voters will receive three ballot papers instead
of the two they got in the past: two national
ballots (the regional and compensatory
ballots) and one provincial ballot paper.
The first national ballot has a list of
political parties that are contesting 200
National Assembly seats across the country.
The second is the regional ballot in each
province: it is for political parties and
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independent candidates in the nine provinces
contesting the other 200 seats in the National
Assembly. In total there are 400 seats in the
National Assembly. The third is the
provincial ballot for the provincial
legislatures. South Africa has nine provinces.
Voters will therefore have to make three
choices: two for the National Assembly and
one for their provincial legislature. It creates
the possibility of “strategic” voting. Voters
can choose between different parties (or a
party and an independent candidate) at the
national level. It will also be possible to vote
for one party at the national level and for
another party (or an independent) at the
provincial level.
The amended electoral system also
allows independent candidates to stand at
both the national and provincial levels for the
first time.
The new system is therefore a
combination of party lists and individual
candidates. The new lists for the provincial
legislatures look the same as the national
“regional” lists.
What about the choices on the ballot
paper?
Statutory Amendment (Date of Birth)
I, Miss Adiatu Victoria Ramos - an Indigene of
Lagos Island, Lagos State, Nigeria; known with a
previous Date of Birth of 8th February 1970 wish
to state that my correct Date of Birth
is 8th February 1961.
Nigeria High Commission London, Immigration &
Nationality UK, Department of Social Security UK,
Department for Work & Pensions, South
Gloucestershire Council and NatWest Bank UK,
should please take note
The options on the national ballot paper
increased from 48 parties in 2019 to 52 in
2024. In 1994, 19 parties participated in the
first national election. The number of parties
has increased gradually over 30 years, not
suddenly since the most recent elections.
During the 30 years, the number of
parties with seats in the National Assembly
has remained relatively constant at about 14.
In 1994, three – namely the African National
Congress (ANC), New National Party (NNP)
and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) – each
received more than 10% support at the
national level. In 1999, this changed with the
NNP’s dramatic loss of support and the
emergence of the Democratic Alliance (DA).
The NNP party was dissolved in 2005.
The Inkatha Freedom Party also declined
between 2009 and 2016, but started to
recover thereafter. The Congress of the
People (Cope) (2009) and the Economic
Freedom Fighters (EFF) (2014) emerged as
newcomers. Cope has largely disappeared
while the DA and EFF have increased their
support to between 10% and 20%.
The ANC, DA, EFF and IFP are therefore
the main options in 2024, followed by a host
of small parties with 1%-2% support. The
latest addition is the uMkhonto weSizwe
Party (MK Party) led by former President
Jacob Zuma. Its support is still untested but it
appears to have much potential in the
KwaZulu-Natal province. Opinion polls
suggest a national presence for the party of
about 8%. In principle it means that the main
contest is between about five to eight parties.
This establishes a truly multi-party
dispensation. It also enables a number of
options for coalition governments.
The ruling party risks losing 50%.
What does this mean?
The 2024 election might become a
milestone because, for the first time since
1994, a national coalition government is a
possibility. It will differ from the
Government of National Unity of 1994-1999
(consisting of the ANC, NNP and IFP),
which was an oversized, grand coalition
agreed upon before the election as part of the
negotiated transition package. It was thus not
a conventional coalition government.
The possibility that the ruling ANC might
receive less than 50%+1 of the votes at the
national level or in some of the provincial
legislatures will be highly significant. That’s
because the ANC has been a dominant party
for 30 years.
This is not unique and dominant parties
were in the past or still are in power in India,
Sweden, Japan, Botswana, Mexico, Namibia,
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