ICIS Olefins Research

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Outlook
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Olefins
America | Asia | Europe

2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins
Table of contents
America
US Ethylene
US Propylene
US Butadiene
Asia
Asia Ethylene
Asia Propylene
China Propylene
Asia Butadiene
China Butadiene
Europe
Europe Ethylene & Propylene
Europe Butadiene

2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Ethylene
Author:
John Donnelly,
Senior Editor
US ethylene market to navigate challenging
start to new year
The US ethylene market is expected to remain long throughout the first
half of 2024, facing headwinds from weak demand, ample supply and
a sluggish economy. While unit maintenance will tighten supply some,
significant improvement in supply/demand is not anticipated until at
least the second half of next year.
Current operating
rates are in the
high 70% range.
Current operating rates are in the high 70% range. Several crackers
have recently restarted from planned and unplanned outages which
will add length to supply in the short term. Ethylene spot prices are
feeling the weight of that extra supply and have been under downward
pressure since late November.
Author: John Donnelly, Senior Editor
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20-Jan-2023
27-Jan-2023
01-Feb-2023
03-Feb-2023
10-Feb-2023
17-Feb-2023
24-Feb-2023
01-Mar-2023
03-Mar-2023
10-Mar-2023
17-Mar-2023
24-Mar-2023
31-Mar-2023
01-Apr-2023
07-Apr-2023
14-Apr-2023
21-Apr-2023
28-Apr-2023
01-May-2023
05-May-2023
12-May-2023
19-May-2023
26-May-2023
01-Jun-2023
02-Jun-2023
09-Jun-2023
16-Jun-2023
23-Jun-2023
30-Jun-2023
01-Jul-2023
07-Jul-2023
14-Jul-2023
21-Jul-2023
28-Jul-2023
01-Aug-2023
04-Aug-2023
11-Aug-2023
18-Aug-2023
25-Aug-2023
01-Sep-2023
08-Sep-2023
15-Sep-2023
22-Sep-2023
29-Sep-2023
01-Oct-2023
06-Oct-2023
13-Oct-2023
20-Oct-2023
27-Oct-2023
01-Nov-2023
03-Nov-2023
10-Nov-2023
17-Nov-2023
24-Nov-2023
01-Dec-2023
08-Dec-2023
15-Dec-2023
22-Dec-2023
05-Jan-2024
12-Jan-2024
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Ethylene
US ethylene spot vs contract price history
Cents/lb
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
Ethylene Choctaw pipeline US spot DEL Ethylene EPC pipeline US spot DEL Ethylene US contract DEL
Source: ICIS
Market hopes for the new year are pinned on
US economic improvement and a recovery
in China to stimulate momentum worldwide.
Recent company earnings calls
highlighted pockets of resilience in
the petrochemical industry amid tough
macroeconomic conditions.
But US economic recovery forecasts have
been pushed out to the second half of next
year at the earliest on persistent weakness in
durables, housing and construction.
A soft landing is in store for the US economy,
according to ICIS analysts, with conditions
bottoming out in Q1 and only slightly
improving in Q2.
ICIS economists forecast zero economic
growth in the first quarter of next year and
an increase of only 0.1% in Q2. If consumer
buying interest returns, it will likely not be until
Q3. Total ethylene consumption in the US is
expected to grow by 2.9% in 2024 from the
previous year, according to ICIS analysts.
Net exports are unlikely to overtake
the 1.2m tonne threshold due to
logistics constraints.
Meanwhile, derivative demand is sluggish.
Domestic polyethylene (PE) demand has
declined by 6.4% over the first 10 months of
2023 compared with the prior year. Polyvinyl
chloride (PVC) demand remains weak
due to high mortgage rates and slower
residential construction.
There continues to be weakness in the US
housing market as interest rates remain high.
Though there were slight monthly upticks
in housing starts and building permits from
September to October, year-on-year figures
in October were down more than 4%
for both categories, according to
the US Census Bureau.
Ethylene exports fell month on month and
year on year in October, despite open
arbitrage windows to Asia and Europe, and
net exports are unlikely to overtake the 1.2m
tonne threshold due to logistics constraints.
Enterprise Products Partners has pushed
back the completion of the first phase of
its ethylene export terminal expansion at
Morgan’s Point, Texas, to H2 2024 from
H2 2023.
Author: John Donnelly, Senior Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Ethylene
US ethylene exports
Tonnes
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2022 2023
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
Inventories remain high but are declining.
Third-quarter data from the American Fuel &
Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) indicate
a 7% drop in inventories from Q2 but are still
above the four-year average. Year-to-date
inventories increased by 1.8 % compared with
the first three quarters of 2022.
Persistently weak demand and additional
capacity that has come online this year have
elevated inventory levels.
There is potential for market improvement
in the second half of 2024 if economic
conditions stabilise and domestic and global
demand recovers. That would whittle down
inventories and prices and margins could see
some upward movement. In the meantime,
producers will focus on cost optimization and
operational efficiency to improve margins.
Ethylene is a key petrochemical feedstock,
used to make polyethylene (PE), ethylene
glycol (EG) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
among other products.
Major US ethylene producers include Chevron
Phillips Chemical, Dow, ExxonMobil, INEOS
Olefins & Polymers, LyondellBasell
and Shell Chemical.
There is potential for market
improvement in the second half
of 2024 if economic conditions
stabilise and domestic and
global demand recovers
Author: John Donnelly, Senior Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Propylene
Author:
John Donnelly,
Senior Editor
US propylene market unsettled on tight supply
The US propylene market faces supply constraints entering the new
year that threaten to keep prices volatile. But demand is expected to
continue to be tepid, which will add some stability to the tight market.
After a volatile 2023 plagued by production outages, the market begins
the new year still battling low inventories, an issue compounded by
plant shutdowns for maintenance and unforeseen technical problems.
Inventories struggled to rebuild through 2023 due to outages.
Propylene (PGP)
contract prices
enter the new year
5 cents/lb higher
than at the start
of 2023.
According to figures from the American Fuel & Petrochemical
Manufacturers (AFPM), propylene inventories in Q3 grew quarter on
quarter but were still sharply down from the comparable quarter a year
ago. Inventories totaled 1.295 billion pounds, 10% above Q2 levels but
still almost 38% below the same quarter a year ago, according to AFPM.
The supply tightness led to extreme price volatility in 2023 with
contract prices rising 26 cents/lb in the first three months of the year
only to give back 23 cents/lb in the next three after units returned
from outages. Prices stabilised some in the second half of the year but
remained susceptible to sudden outages. It’s that type of volatility that
the market hopes to avoid in 2024.
Polymer-grade propylene (PGP) contract prices enter the new
year 5 cents/lb higher than at the start of 2023.
Author: John Donnelly, Senior Editor
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20-Jan-2023
27-Jan-2023
01-Feb-2023
03-Feb-2023
10-Feb-2023
17-Feb-2023
24-Feb-2023
01-Mar-2023
03-Mar-2023
10-Mar-2023
17-Mar-2023
24-Mar-2023
31-Mar-2023
01-Apr-2023
07-Apr-2023
14-Apr-2023
21-Apr-2023
28-Apr-2023
01-May-2023
05-May-2023
12-May-2023
19-May-2023
26-May-2023
01-Jun-2023
02-Jun-2023
09-Jun-2023
16-Jun-2023
23-Jun-2023
30-Jun-2023
01-Jul-2023
07-Jul-2023
14-Jul-2023
21-Jul-2023
28-Jul-2023
01-Aug-2023
04-Aug-2023
11-Aug-2023
18-Aug-2023
25-Aug-2023
01-Sep-2023
08-Sep-2023
15-Sep-2023
22-Sep-2023
29-Sep-2023
01-Oct-2023
06-Oct-2023
13-Oct-2023
20-Oct-2023
27-Oct-2023
01-Nov-2023
03-Nov-2023
10-Nov-2023
17-Nov-2023
24-Nov-2023
01-Dec-2023
08-Dec-2023
15-Dec-2023
22-Dec-2023
05-Jan-2024
12-Jan-2024
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Propylene
US polymer grade propylene contract v spot price history
Cents/lb
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Source: ICIS
Propylene polymer grade US contract DEL
Propylene polymer grade pipline USG spot DEL
The market will need to continue building
inventory in preparation for at least two
propane dehydrogenation (PDH) turnarounds
scheduled during the first part of 2024.
Some relief in Q1 is on its way. Chevron
Phillips Chemical was expected to begin
operations on a new propylene splitter plant
in Texas in late December. Other expected
restarts include Enterprise’s PDH 2 unit in
Mont Belvieu, Texas, which went down due to
a fire in early December; BASF TotalEnergies’
metathesis unit that shut in September; and
Shell’s Deer Park, Texas, plant that has been
down for months after an accident in May.
But those additions may not fully offset
reductions from the 2024 PDH maintenance
cycle, which includes extended outages to
PDH units operated by Enterprise and Dow in
March and April.
Refinery and cracker outages are also planned
in Q1, which will crimp propylene supply.
Demand, meanwhile, is expected to stay soft
in the near term. Polypropylene (PP), the main
propylene derivative, continues to see poor
demand with the ongoing downturn in US
manufacturing activity.
PP domestic demand year to date through
October was 2% below the first 10 months
of 2022. Supplies remain long (four days of
supply above average) even though average
industry operating rates were under 80% for
most of 2023.
US economic recovery hopes have been
pushed out to the second half of next year at
the earliest on persistent softness in durables,
housing and construction. A soft landing is in
store for the US economy, according to ICIS
analysts, with conditions bottoming out in Q1
and only slightly improving in Q2.
ICIS does forecast an improvement in global
propylene demand for all of 2024 compared
with 2023. The US should see a modest
recovery, with propylene demand increasing
by 2.8% year on year, according to the ICIS
Supply & Demand Database. The US continues
to benefit from lower production costs
compared with other regions due to more
affordable natural gas and feedstock prices.
Exports are expected to continue to flow to
Latin America in the new year but arbitrage
windows to Europe and Asia are closed
entering 2024.
Author: John Donnelly, Senior Editor
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20-Jan-2023
27-Jan-2023
03-Feb-2023
10-Feb-2023
17-Feb-2023
24-Feb-2023
03-Mar-2023
10-Mar-2023
17-Mar-2023
24-Mar-2023
31-Mar-2023
07-Apr-2023
14-Apr-2023
21-Apr-2023
28-Apr-2023
05-May-2023
12-May-2023
19-May-2023
26-May-2023
02-Jun-2023
09-Jun-2023
16-Jun-2023
23-Jun-2023
30-Jun-2023
07-Jul-2023
14-Jul-2023
21-Jul-2023
28-Jul-2023
04-Aug-2023
11-Aug-2023
18-Aug-2023
25-Aug-2023
01-Sep-2023
08-Sep-2023
15-Sep-2023
22-Sep-2023
29-Sep-2023
06-Oct-2023
13-Oct-2023
20-Oct-2023
27-Oct-2023
03-Nov-2023
10-Nov-2023
17-Nov-2023
24-Nov-2023
01-Dec-2023
08-Dec-2023
15-Dec-2023
22-Dec-2023
05-Jan-2024
12-Jan-2024
19-Jan-2024
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Propylene
US propylene exports
Tonnes
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2022 2023
Source: ICIS
That was the case all of 2023 as higher US propylene prices—elevated
by the tight supply—made overseas sales problematic. The volume of
US exports to Latin American, primarily Colombia and Mexico,
are contract sales.
Propylene spot prices in the US, Asia and Europe
$/lb
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
Source: ICIS
Propylene NE Asia spot CFR Propylene polymer grade NWE spot CIF Propylene polymer grade popeline USG spot DEL
The main outlet for propylene is as a feedstock for polypropylene (PP).
Propylene is also used to produce acrylonitrile (ACN), propylene oxide
(PO), a number of alcohols, cumene and acrylic acid.
Major US propylene producers include Chevron Phillips Chemical,
ExxonMobil, INVISTA and Shell Chemical.
Major buyers include Arkema, Ascend Performance Materials,
Braskem, Dow Chemical, INEOS, Oxea and Total.
The US should
see a modest
recovery, with
propylene
demand
increasing by
2.8% year on year.
Author: John Donnelly, Senior Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Butadiene
Author:
Amanda Hay,
Senior Editor Manager
US BD import needs decrease as demand
shifts, SBR stays weak
The US is expected to have limited need for imported butadiene (BD) in
2024 and exports to Asia are likely to continue, especially if demand for
derivatives such as styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) remains weak.
Shifting trade flows in 2024
The US is still technically a net importer of BD, but it is becoming
increasingly self-sufficient and moving toward a position of being a
small exporter.
US reliance
on imports is
expected to
decrease further
in 2024.
US reliance on imports is expected to decrease further in 2024.
North American net exports fell to 12-year low in 2023 with the
exception of 2020 (COVID-19 year, not shown on graph below).
This is the lowest in the post-shale boom era (early 2010s) when the US
pivoted from cracking naphtha to cracking lighter NGL liquids.
Despite the lower crude C4 yield of ethane-only crackers, the volume
of ethylene capacity that has come online has been more than
sufficient to generate enough C4 for BD extraction to meet North
American needs.
Author: Amanda Hay, Senior Editor Manager
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Butadiene
North America BD net exports
Volume (thousand tonnes)
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
US operating rates are expected to remain at
similar levels as 2023, which were lower than
2019 as seen in the graph below.
Two things will occur to change supply and
demand balances: TPC Group has plans to
expand BD extraction capacity in Houston,
Texas, while INVISTA permanently stopped
production of BD derivative adiponitrile (ADN)
at Orange, Texas, in Q4 2023.
According to the ICIS Supply and Demand
database, the site has the capacity to produce
480,000 tonnes/year of ADN and 375,000
tonnes/year of hexamethylene diamine
(HMDA). The HMDA production will stop
in mid-2024.
INVISTA has moved this production to Asia,
but is still producing at Victoria, Texas.
Operating rates resumed pre-pandemic
patterns in 2023 but at lower levels. The
average operating rate during the first three
quarters of 2023 was 53%, according to AFPM
production data.
ICIS analysts expect that with the closure of
a derivative unit in early Q4 2023, BD output
will have been tailored to match and the 2023
operating rate will average 52.4%.
ICIS anticipates that 2024 operating rates
will hover in the mid-50s%.
Operating rates resumed
pre-pandemic patterns in 2023
but at lower levels.
There is spare extraction capacity in the US
Gulf as plants generally run anywhere from
50-65% over the last several years.
The graph below shows 2021 and 2022
deviated from normal patterns - 2021
because of the February ice storm that
caused production stoppages and 2022
because of high post-COVID demand.
Author: Amanda Hay, Senior Editor Manager
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Butadiene
US BD operating rates
Operating rate (percentage)
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2021 2022 2023
Source: Chemical Data, AFPM
Another trend to note for 2024 is reduced flows from Europe
and increased flows from South America.
Market players have indicated that structural volumes of BD that have
traditionally moved from Europe to the US since the shale boom will
be redirected to Asia in 2024.
The graph below shows European imports are falling and South
American imports are rising. Most South American imports are
from Brazil.
Another trend to
note for 2024 is
reduced flows
from Europe
and increased
flows from South
America.
North America BD imports
Volume (thousand tonnes)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023
Europe South America Asia
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Author: Amanda Hay, Senior Editor Manager
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Butadiene
Lastly, North American exports to Asia appear likely to continue in 2024
as there are few signals that demand will improve significantly.
The graph below shows 2023 shattered previous highs despite a pause
in Q3 due to local production disruptions. Exports resumed in mid-Q4
despite near-record-low BD inventory levels in Q3, underscoring the
reality of weak downstream demand.
US BD operating rates
Operating rate (percentage)
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
SBR demand struggles to return to
pre-pandemic levels
Synthetic rubber accounts for the majority
of BD demand globally, and tiremakers
have some optimism going into 2024 but
acknowledge there are still challenges.
Companies like Michelin and Goodyear said
in their Q3 earnings calls that they expect
the industry destocking trend seen throughout
2023 to be complete by the end of 2023,
which suggests increased tire demand
in 2024.
The US Tire Manufacturers Association
(USTMA) is already seeing some
more positive trends in tire shipments
in its last 2023 forecast.
The association projects improved numbers
in both original equipment and replacement
compared to its midyear forecast but still
slight declines compared with 2022 and 2019.
Synthetic rubber
accounts for the majority
of BD demand globally.
Author: Amanda Hay, Senior Editor Manager
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - US Butadiene
Nov 2023 forecast
2023 forecast 2022 % vs 2022 Units vs 2022 2019 % vs 2019 Units vs 2019
Original Equipment
Passenger 44.9 41.6 7.90% 3.3 46.3 -2.90% -1.3
Light Truck 6 6.3 -4.00% -0.2 5.9 2.60% 0.2
Truck 6.4 6.5 -1.30% -0.1 6.5 -1.80% -0.1
Replacement
Passenger 214.2 213.7 0.20% 0.5 222.6 -3.80% -8.4
Light Truck 35.2 37.2 -5.60% -2.1 32.5 8.10% 2.6
Truck 21 26.6 -21.30% -5.7 18.9 10.70% 2
Total shipments 327.7 332 -1.30% -4.3 332.7 -1.50% -5
Source: US Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA)
SBR imports have trended lower in 2023, which aligns with the
destocking narrative. ICIS anticipates imports end the lower lower than
the previous four normal years.
E-SBR is continuously declining in favor compared with other
elastomers, so it does not have a growth trajectory.
US SBR imports
Volume (thousand tonnes)
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2018 2019 2021 2022 2023
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Imports
Projected
SBR imports have trended
lower in 2023, which aligns
with the destocking narrative.
Author: Amanda Hay, Senior Editor Manager
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Ethylene
Author:
Josh Quah,
Markets Editor
Asia ethylene dour sentiment may undermine
derivative expansion
While Asia ethylene markets are likely to see demand in some regions
being able to keep pace with new planned capacity, a bearish outlook
for the coming year threatens to dampen further recovery hopes for
the commodity.
Looking at some key downstream projects, polyethylene expansions
in 2024 are generally regarded to be integrated with their crackers,
limiting the amount of ethylene exports from said crackers.
A bearish outlook
for the coming
year threatens to
dampen further
recovery hopes for
the commodity.
For instance, in southeast Asia, the impact of Long Son Petrochemical’s
December 2023 cracker start-up is expected to be minimal, with the
company seen to be balanced against its downstream. However,
should derivative margins – in particular, polyethylene and ethylene
spreads – stay rooted below threshold levels, this may trigger run rate
adjustments or exports of ethylene.
Author: Josh Quah, Markets Editor
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16-Jan-2023
23-Jan-2023
30-Jan-2023
06-Feb-2023
13-Feb-2023
20-Feb-2023
27-Feb-2023
06-Mar-2023
13-Mar-2023
20-Mar-2023
27-Mar-2023
03-Apr-2023
10-Apr-2023
17-Apr-2023
24-Apr-2023
01-May-2023
08-May-2023
15-May-2023
22-May-2023
29-May-2023
05-Jun-2023
12-Jun-2023
19-Jun-2023
26-Jun-2023
03-Jul-2023
10-Jul-2023
17-Jul-2023
24-Jul-2023
31-Jul-2023
07-Aug-2023
14-Aug-2023
21-Aug-2023
28-Aug-2023
04-Sep-2023
11-Sep-2023
18-Sep-2023
25-Sep-2023
02-Oct-2023
09-Oct-2023
16-Oct-2023
23-Oct-2023
30-Oct-2023
06-Nov-2023
13-Nov-2023
20-Nov-2023
27-Nov-2023
04-Dec-2023
11-Dec-2023
18-Dec-2023
01-Jan-2024
08-Jan-2024
15-Jan-2024
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Ethylene
Asia polyethylene-ethylene spread (HDPE, LLDPE)
$/tonne
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
PE HDPE Film CFR SE Asia - Ethylene CFR SE Asia PE LLDPE Film CFR SE Asia - Ethylene CFR SE Asia PE HDPE Film CFR China - Ethylene CFR NE Asia
Source: ICIS
PE LLDPE Film CFR China - Ethylene CFR NE Asia
PVC expansions in China are also notable
as their sizeable capacities come amid a
burst bubble in real estate, according to ICIS
Asia PVC editor Jonathan Chou. Concern
over this end-use sector in China is likely to
underpin cautious sentiment, with potential
supply overhang on the cards for the Asia
spot markets, should the domestic real estate
markets remain weak in 2024.
Key downstream projects in Asia
Company Location Capacity (‘000 tonnes/year) 2024 start-up schedule Comment
Sinopec INEOS Tianjin Petrochemical Tianjin, China 500,000 HDPE; 300,000
LLDPE; 100,000 UHMWPE;
100,000 POE
Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Longkou, China 750,000 HDPE; 1,000,000
FDPE
Ningbo Zhenyang Chemical Zhenhai, China 300,000 PVC Q1
Q2
Q4-Q1 2025
Integrated with
new cracker
capacity
Integrated with
new cracker
capacity
Qingdao Haiwan Chemical Qingdao, China 200,000 PVC End Q4
Chemplast Sanmar Cuddalore, India 41,000 PVC H2
Source: ICIS, industry sources
In other derivatives, standalone-based styrene
monomer and ethylene oxide in China are
forecasted to remain in the red, with this trend
expected to continue in the short term at least.
Regional supply is anticipated to see an
increase in 2024 from Korea based on planned
maintenance schedules, with most Korean
crackers having completed turnarounds in
the past year. Yeochun NCC also postponed
its 2024 turnaround for its Yeosu cracker after
originally having it planned for Q4.
Author: Josh Quah, Markets Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Ethylene
Key Asia cracker turnarounds (excluding China)
Company
Company
Location
Location
Capacity
Capacity
(‘000
(‘000
tonnes/year)
tonnes/year)
2024
2024
planned
planned
turnaround
turnaround
schedule
schedule
Mitsui
Mitsui
Chemicals
Chemicals
Osaka,
Osaka,
Japan
Japan
500,000
500,000
June-July
June-July
Idemitsu
Idemitsu
Kosan
Kosan
Tokuyama,
Tokuyama,
Japan
Japan
690,000
690,000
September-November
September-November
Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi
Chemical
Chemical
Kashima,
Kashima,
Japan
Japan
539,000
539,000
May-June/July
May-June/July
ENEOS
ENEOS
Kawasaki,
Kawasaki,
Japan
Japan
460,000
460,000
Q1
Q1
(estimated
(estimated
March)
March) –
Q2
Q2
Tosoh
Tosoh
Yokkaichi,
Yokkaichi,
Japan
Japan
527,000
527,000
Q1
Q1
(estimated
(estimated
March)
March) –
Q2
Q2
Maruzen
Maruzen
Petrochemical
Petrochemical
Chiba,
Chiba,
Japan
Japan
525,000
525,000
Mid-May
Mid-May –
early
early
July
July
GS
GS
Caltex
Caltex
Yeosu,
Yeosu,
South
South
Korea
Korea
750,000
750,000
End-September
End-September –
end-November/early
end-November/early
December
December
CPC
CPC
Kaohsiung,
Kaohsiung,
Taiwan
Taiwan
720,000
720,000
Mid-Jan
Mid-Jan –
end
end
March
March
Chandra
Chandra
Asri
Asri
Petrochemical
Petrochemical
Cilegon,
Cilegon,
Indonesia
Indonesia
900,000
900,000
Q2/Q3
Q2/Q3
2024
2024
Source: ICIS, industry sources
Pending unforeseen shutdowns and
unplanned run-rate adjustments, supply from
Japan is thought to likely be keeping on the
snug side, as was the case in Q4 2023.
Based on current schedules, northeast Asia
supply losses due to planned turnarounds
will be most felt in Q2, where regional supply
losses may reach nearly 340,000 tonnes.
Pending unforeseen shutdowns and
unplanned run-rate adjustments supply
from Japan is thought to likely be
keeping on the snug side, as was the
case in Q4 2023.
That said, these supply losses are likely to be
alleviated to an extent in the second half of
the year as new capacities from a China-led
expansion drive is expected to cushion
the impact of the turnarounds in
the northeast Asia.
ICIS data shows that this year-on-year
growth of China ethylene capacity will be at
5% in 2024.
New northeast Asia ethylene capacity 2024
Company Site Production
Route
Capacity (kta)
2024 planned turnaround schedule
Ningbo Huatai Wealthy
Polymer Materials
Ningbo, China Steam 629 Cracker expansion, targeting completion by
end 2024
Shandong Yulong Pc Longkou Steam 423 Scheduled to come on stream on Q3 2024
Sinopec INEOS Tianjin
Petrochemical
Tianjin Steam 615 Scheduled to come on stream on Q2 2024
Source: ICIS, industry sources
Author: Josh Quah, Markets Editor
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page

2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Ethylene
US BD ope Asia naphtha-ethylene spread rating rates
$/tonne
Source: ICIS
Outlook for prices
Based on the December forecast, the
spot market is anticipated to come under
downward pressure due to entrenched bearish
downstream sentiment that is not seeing
significant deviation for much of 2024.
However, with derivative capacities
nevertheless expected to grow at the same
pace as supply in 2024, this could lend
support to a rebound for naphtha-ethylene
spreads in H1 2024 as compared with H2 2023,
according to ICIS Senior Analyst Amy Yu.
The one caveat in this recovery trajectory
is the deep-sea arbitrage of competitive US
exports which is expected to be a key impact
driver on the spot market although congestion
at the Panama Canal is likely to curtail this
trade flow in the near term.
The spot market is anticipated to
come under downward pressure
due to entrenched bearish
downstream sentiment that is not
seeing significant deviation for
much of 2024.
Additional reporting from Amy Yu,
Jonathan Chou, Joanne Wang
Author: Josh Quah, Markets Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Propylene
Author:
Julia Tan,
Markets Editor
Asia propylene braces for volatility,
downstream demand growth to slow
Asia’s propylene (C3) import market is set to face increased volatility
in 2024 as market participants opt to lower term volumes in favour of
higher spot allocations. Beyond this, uncertainties in upstream markets
also continue to compound expectations that 2024 spot markets will
see more volatility.
Asia’s propylene
(C3) import
market is set to
face increased
volatility in 2024.
Author: Julia Tan, Markets Editor
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20-Jan-2023
27-Jan-2023
03-Feb-2023
10-Feb-2023
17-Feb-2023
24-Feb-2023
03-Mar-2023
10-Mar-2023
17-Mar-2023
24-Mar-2023
31-Mar-2023
07-Apr-2023
14-Apr-2023
21-Apr-2023
28-Apr-2023
05-May-2023
12-May-2023
19-May-2023
26-May-2023
02-Jun-2023
09-Jun-2023
16-Jun-2023
23-Jun-2023
30-Jun-2023
07-Jul-2023
14-Jul-2023
21-Jul-2023
28-Jul-2023
04-Aug-2023
11-Aug-2023
18-Aug-2023
25-Aug-2023
01-Sep-2023
08-Sep-2023
15-Sep-2023
22-Sep-2023
29-Sep-2023
06-Oct-2023
13-Oct-2023
20-Oct-2023
27-Oct-2023
03-Nov-2023
10-Nov-2023
17-Nov-2023
24-Nov-2023
01-Dec-2023
08-Dec-2023
15-Dec-2023
22-Dec-2023
05-Jan-2024
12-Jan-2024
19-Jan-2024
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Propylene
Asia propylene spot price history
$/tonne
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
Propylene NE Asia spot CFR
Propylene SE Asia spot CFR
Source: ICIS
While this is not expected to be standard
practice across the board, a significant
number of market participants have
underlined the need for lowering their term
requirements as upstream volatility is likely to
lead to margin pressure both for propylene
makers and derivative producers.
With China’s increasing self-sufficiency in
propylene production, more buyers in China
have opted to sign term contracts with
domestic players instead, where they would
have previously sourced propylene feedstock
via import contracts.
However, this also means that such market
participants are susceptible to import price
fluctuations in the event that there are
unplanned shutdowns at these domestic
producers, given that they will likely procure
from the spot import market instead of
having the option to rely on some term
import volumes.
China propylene imports
tonnes
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
Author: Julia Tan, Markets Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Propylene
Upstream volatility likely sustained
Upstream volatility is also likely to be
sustained, further compounding the likelihood
of volatility in the propylene market.
To begin with, shipping issues in the Red Sea,
as well as at the Panama Canal, will continue
to keep the market on its toes because the
movement of upstream feedstock crude and
propane will likely be affected.
Propylene is unlikely to be directly affected,
given limited inter-regional arbitrage
opportunities for the time being. Recent
movements seen have been from Libya to
Asia, but the market has been relatively
quiet otherwise.
According to ICIS crude analysts, benchmark
crude prices were up on 18 December in
positive territory as market players were
concerned about supply disruptions.
Yemen’s Houthi militant group also attacked
two vessels in the Red Sea on 18 December.
The group said it was in retaliation for the
present Middle East conflict.
BP joined several companies in announcing
that it would temporarily stop all passages
through the area because of the “deteriorating
security situation”.
The route is the quickest between Europe
and Asia via the Suez Canal, meaning these
disruptions will cost those moving oil both
time and money.
Benchmark crude prices eased downwards
on 21 December after three consecutive days
of gains.
The disruption to shipping in the Red Sea
remains a bullish geopolitical factor for
the time being.
Benchmark crude prices
were up on 18 December in
positive territory as market
players were concerned
about supply disruptions.
Furthermore, ongoing tensions in the Middle
East continue to keep market participants
vigilant for any changes to upstream prices.
Author: Julia Tan, Markets Editor
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16-Jan-2023
30-Jan-2023
06-Feb-2023
13-Feb-2023
20-Feb-2023
27-Feb-2023
06-Mar-2023
13-Mar-2023
20-Mar-2023
27-Mar-2023
03-Apr-2023
10-Apr-2023
17-Apr-2023
24-Apr-2023
01-May-2023
08-May-2023
15-May-2023
22-May-2023
29-May-2023
05-Jun-2023
12-Jun-2023
19-Jun-2023
26-Jun-2023
03-Jul-2023
10-Jul-2023
17-Jul-2023
24-Jul-2023
31-Jul-2023
07-Aug-2023
14-Aug-2023
21-Aug-2023
28-Aug-2023
04-Sep-2023
11-Sep-2023
18-Sep-2023
25-Sep-2023
09-Oct-2023
16-Oct-2023
23-Oct-2023
30-Oct-2023
06-Nov-2023
13-Nov-2023
20-Nov-2023
27-Nov-2023
04-Dec-2023
11-Dec-2023
18-Dec-2023
01-Jan-2024
08-Jan-2024
15-Jan-2024
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Propylene
Demand to remain weak in q1 ahead of holidays
Looking ahead, the ICIS propylene forecast
states that prices are expected to trend lower
in the first quarter of 2024. Market activity in
the first half of the first quarter of 2024 is likely
to remain slow, with most of the labour force
expected to take long vacations during the
Lunar New Year holidays.
Thin margins for polypropylene (PP) makers
are also likely to dampen demand for
propylene feedstock. In addition, increasing
competition for PP makers will compound the
issue of thin margins.
For PP, a total of 5.6m tonnes/year of effective
capacity is scheduled to be added in China
in 2024.
As a result, ICIS analyst Joey Zhou underlines
that “the Asia PP utilisation rate is forecast to
fall from 79% in 2023 to 75% in 2024”.
Furthermore, Chinese polymer demand is
expected to grow in 2024 but will be limited
by slower economic growth.
In the week ended 15 December, production
margins for standalone PP makers in northeast
Asia were negative, at -$143/tonne, according
to ICIS data.
Production margins for acrylic acid (AA),
acrylonitrile (ACN) and 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH)
makers in northeast Asia were at $227/tonne,
-$26/tonne and $847/tonne respectively.
the ICIS propylene forecast states that
prices are expected to trend lower
in the first quarter of 2024.
The global PP market is oversupplied and,
faced with more supply and weak demand,
some countries have introduced policies to
restrict imports and protect their own trade
and production.
China propylene margins
$/tonne
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China - Propylene CFR China
Source: ICIS
Author: Julia Tan, Markets Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Propylene
For other derivatives such as ACN, the road
ahead also remains rocky, with market
participants relatively pessimistic on demand
recovery and growth.
The ICIS oxo-alcohols forecast also underlines
that average Asia oxo-alcohols prices are
expected to decrease by 14-19% in 2024, given
new supply from China bringing more supply
competition pressure to the region.
However, senior ICIS analyst Pablo Scafetta
forecasts an improvement in global propylene
demand overall in 2024 compared with 2023,
because the worst is likely to be over.
Following a prolonged period of destocking,
inventory rebuilding should start next year.
Global consumption could hit 124.8m tonnes
in 2024, a rise of 4%, although the growth
is expected to be uneven across
the main regions.
Average Asia
oxo-alcohols prices
are expected to
decrease by 14-19%
in 2024.
New capacities to keep supply ample in China
New capacities are expected to keep
propylene supply in China relatively ample,
thereby increasing the likelihood of lower
demand for propylene imports.
About 2.16m tonnes/year of propane
dehydrogenation (PDH)-based new propylene
capacity is expected to come on stream at the
end of 2023 and in January 2024.
They include Fujian Meide, Quanzhou Grand
Pacific Chemical and Formosa.
For other derivatives such as ACN, the road
ahead also remains rocky, with market
participants relatively pessimistic on demand
recovery and growth.
The ICIS oxo-alcohols forecast also underlines
that average Asia oxo-alcohols prices are
expected to decrease by 14-19% in 2024, given
new supply from China bringing more supply
competition pressure to the region.
Author: Julia Tan, Markets Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - China Propylene
Author:
Seymour Chenxia,
Analyst
China propylene supply to be driven
by PDH run rates
China’s domestic propylene market will continue to see expanding
capacities in 2024. Spot supply is expected to depend more on the
operating rates of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units as PDH will
become the largest production route in the new year.
Domestic propylene prices generally showed a V-shaped trend during
2023, tracking the fluctuating feedstock costs and the changes in
supply-demand fundamentals.
China’s domestic
propylene market
will continue to
see expanding
capacities in 2024.
Upstream naphtha and propane prices fell from high levels from
Q1 to Q2. This, combined with underperforming end-user demand
amid bearish macroeconomic conditions, gradually dragged down
propylene prices to the lowest levels in mid-June.
Rebounds were seen from Q3, supported by recovery in downstream
markets’ seasonal demand. The fluctuations, however, became milder
during Q4 as waning demand continued to offset the impact of
tighter supply.
Author: Seymour Chenxia, Analyst
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CNY/tonne
28-Jan-2023
01-Feb-2023
07-Feb-2023
13-Feb-2023
17-Feb-2023
23-Feb-2023
01-Mar-2023
07-Mar-2023
13-Mar-2023
17-Mar-2023
23-Mar-2023
29-Mar-2023
04-Apr-2023
11-Apr-2023
17-Apr-2023
21-Apr-2023
26-Apr-2023
05-May-2023
10-May-2023
16-May-2023
22-May-2023
26-May-2023
01-Jun-2023
07-Jun-2023
13-Jun-2023
19-Jun-2023
26-Jun-2023
30-Jun-2023
06-Jul-2023
12-Jul-2023
18-Jul-2023
24-Jul-2023
28-Jul-2023
03-Aug-2023
09-Aug-2023
15-Aug-2023
21-Aug-2023
25-Aug-2023
31-Aug-2023
06-Sep-2023
12-Sep-2023
18-Sep-2023
22-Sep-2023
28-Sep-2023
10-Oct-2023
16-Oct-2023
20-Oct-2023
26-Oct-2023
01-Nov-2023
07-Nov-2023
13-Nov-2023
17-Nov-2023
23-Nov-2023
29-Nov-2023
05-Dec-2023
11-Dec-2023
15-Dec-2023
21-Dec-2023
27-Dec-2023
03-Jan-2024
09-Jan-2024
15-Jan-2024
19-Jan-2024
$/tonne
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - China Propylene
China propylene v propane price history
CNY/tonne | $/tonne
8,000
900
7,000
787.5
6,000
675
5,000
562.5
450
4,000
3,000
2,000
337.5
225
1,000
112.5
0
0
Propylene Ex-Tank Shandong
Propane Refrigerated CFR China
Source: ICIS
By end-November, 13 new propylene units with designed capacity
totalling 6.73 million tonnes/year were started up within the year.
Based on actual capacities, China’s domestic propylene market is
expected to see a year-on-year growth rate at around 16%
in 2024, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database.
China propylene imports
Company Location Process Capacity
(‘000 tonnes/
year)
Start-up schedule
Jiangsu Ruiheng
Lianyungang,
Jiangsu
PDH 600 Achieve on-spec propylene around
end-November, and reach stable production
from early-December (in production)
Formosa Plastics Corp Ningbo, Zhejiang PDH 600 December 2023-January 2024
Meide Petrochemical Fuzhou, Fujian PDH No 2 900 December 2023-January 2024
Ningbo Kingfa Advanced Materials Ningbo, Zhejiang PDH No 2 600 Q1 2024
Quanzhou Grand Pacific Chemical Quanzhou, Fujian PDH 660 Q1 2024
Zhenhua Petrochemical Dongying, Shandong PDH 750 Q1 2024
Jinneng Science and Technology Qingdao, Shandong PDH No 2 900 Q1-Q2 2024
Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Longkou, Shandong FCC 800 Q2 2024
Shandong Chambroad Binzhou, Shandong KCOT 390 Q2 2024
Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Binzhou, Shandong PDH 400 Q2 2024
Sinopec INEOS (Tianjin)
Petrochemical
Tianjin Steam-cracking 400 Q2 2024
Zhejiang Yuanjin New Material Shaoxing, Zhejiang PDH 750 Q3 2024
Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Longkou, Shandong Steam-cracking 650 End-2024
Huating Zhongxu Coal Chemical Huating, Gansu MTP 200 2024
Hami Hengyou Hami, Xinjiang MTP 200 2024
Source: ICIS
Author: Seymour Chenxia, Analyst
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04-Jan
11-Jan
18-Jan
01-Feb
08-Feb
15-Feb
22-Feb
01-Mar
08-Mar
15-Mar
22-Mar
29-Mar
12-Apr
19-Apr
26-Apr
10-May
17-May
24-May
31-May
07-Jun
14-Jun
21-Jun
28-Jun
05-Jul
12-Jul
19-Jul
26-Jul
02-Aug
09-Aug
16-Aug
23-Aug
30-Aug
06-Sep
13-Sep
20-Sep
27-Sep
11-Oct
18-Oct
25-Oct
01-Nov
08-Nov
15-Nov
23-Nov
29-Nov
06-Dec
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - China Propylene
China’s average PDH run rates in 2023 versus the yearly average run rates in 2022
%
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Source: ICIS
China's average PDH run rates in 2023 China's yearly average PDH run rates in 2022
Along with the increasing capacities,
significant changes in production structure
are expected in 2024.
PDH units will account for around 32% of
the total domestic capacities and become
the largest production route from 2024,
according to ICIS Supply and Demand
Database, while the share of steam crackers
will fall from 33% to around 29% from
2023 to 2024.
Changes in steam crackers’ operating rates
typically have limited impact on spot supply,
as most producers seek to balance propylene
and downstream consumption. The impact
may be curbed further with the shrinking share
of crackers’ capacities.
PDH producers, in comparison, have become
the major spot suppliers after massive
start-ups during recent years.
Although most of the PDH units are designed
with supporting derivative units, with only
two exceptions (namely Jiangsu Yanchang
Zhongran and Xintai Chemical), there are
still half of the producers having excessive
propylene volumes to offer to the market due
to the imbalances between their propylene
and downstream capacities.
As a result, PDH run rates could have direct
impact on propylene spot supply. While PDH
producers are more sensitive to production
margins, the adjustments in their run rates
are much more flexible than those of
steam crackers.
According to data from ICIS margins analytics
and ICIS LPG analysts, the average
year-to-date PDH production margins fell by
about $2/tonne year on year, leading to a
decrease in average run rates to around 64%
from the previous year’s level of around 68%.
So far, restart plans for five PDH units in
Shandong and east China, which were shut
down during Q3-Q4, remained uncertain due
to persistent poor margins. Participants mostly
hold the view PDH producers’ production
plans would be made based on margins.
The average year-to-date
PDH production margins
fell by about $2/tonne
year on year.
Author: Seymour Chenxia, Analyst
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04-Jan
11-Jan
18-Jan
25-Jan
01-Feb
08-Feb
15-Feb
04-Jan
22-Feb
04-Jan
11-Jan
01-Mar
11-Jan
18-Jan
08-Mar
18-Jan
25-Jan
15-Mar
25-Jan
01-Feb
22-Mar
01-Feb
08-Feb
29-Mar
08-Feb
15-Feb
05-Apr
15-Feb
22-Feb
12-Apr
22-Feb
19-Apr
01-Mar
01-Mar
08-Mar 04-Jan
26-Apr
08-Mar
15-Mar 11-Jan
10-May
15-Mar
22-Mar 18-Jan
17-May
22-Mar
29-Mar 25-Jan
24-May
29-Mar
05-Apr 01-Feb
31-May
05-Apr
12-Apr
08-Feb
07-Jun
12-Apr
19-Apr
15-Feb
19-Apr 14-Jun
22-Feb
26-Apr
26-Apr 21-Jun
01-Mar
10-May
10-May 28-Jun
08-Mar
17-May
17-May 05-Jul
15-Mar
24-May
24-May 12-Jul
22-Mar
31-May
31-May 19-Jul
29-Mar
07-Jun
07-Jun 26-Jul
05-Apr
14-Jun
14-Jun 02-Aug
12-Apr
21-Jun
21-Jun 09-Aug
19-Apr
28-Jun
28-Jun 16-Aug
26-Apr
05-Jul
05-Jul 23-Aug
10-May
12-Jul 12-Jul
30-Aug
17-May
19-Jul 19-Jul
06-Sep
24-May
13-Sep
26-Jul 26-Jul
31-May
20-Sep
02-Aug 02-Aug
07-Jun
27-Sep
09-Aug
09-Aug
14-Jun
04-Oct
16-Aug 16-Aug
21-Jun
11-Oct
23-Aug 23-Aug
28-Jun
30-Aug
30-Aug
18-Oct
05-Jul
06-Sep
06-Sep
25-Oct
12-Jul
13-Sep 13-Sep
01-Nov
19-Jul
20-Sep 20-Sep
08-Nov
26-Jul
27-Sep 27-Sep
15-Nov
02-Aug
04-Oct 04-Oct
23-Nov
09-Aug
11-Oct 11-Oct
29-Nov
16-Aug
18-Oct 18-Oct
06-Dec
23-Aug
25-Oct 25-Oct
30-Aug
01-Nov 01-Nov
06-Sep
08-Nov
08-Nov
13-Sep
15-Nov 15-Nov
20-Sep
23-Nov 23-Nov
27-Sep
29-Nov 29-Nov
04-Oct
06-Dec
06-Dec
11-Oct
18-Oct
25-Oct
04-Jan
01-Nov
11-Jan
08-Nov
18-Jan
15-Nov
25-Jan
23-Nov
01-Feb
29-Nov
08-Feb
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - China Propylene
China’s average PDH run rates in 2023 versus PDH margins in Northeast Asia
% | USD/tonne
200
200
85 200
150
80
150
150
75
100
100
100
50
70
50
50
65
0
0
0
60
-50
-50
-50
55
-100
-100
-100
50
-150
45 -150
-150
China's average PDH run rates in 2023 (left axis)
PDH production margins in northeast Asia (right axis)
Source: ICIS LPG weekly and Margin Analytics Tools
production margins in northeast Asia (right axis)
China's average PDH run rates in 2023 (left axis)
PDH
On the derivative front, polypropylene (PP)
and propylene oxide (PO) markets will also
continue to see capacity expansion.
A total of 1.4 million tonnes/year of new PO
capacities are expected to start up from
year-end 2023 to Q1 2024, while PP may see
an increase of 4.9 million tonnes/year from
year-end 2023 to 2024, based on designed
capacity.
Other downstream markets like acrylonitrile
(ACN), acrylic acid and butanol/2-EH
(2-ethylhexanol) will see relatively limited new
capacities in 2024.
Fiercer competitions and margin pressure in
key derivative markets like PP and PO could
lead to curbed utilization rates, and their
support to propylene demand remains to
be seen, according to ICIS senior analyst
Joey Zhou.
In addition, when facing greater losses in
downstream products, some producers opt
to shut down or cut operating rates at their
derivative units and sell feedstock from their
upstream propylene units instead. This could
lead to greater uncertainties in short-term
supply-demand fundamentals in
the propylene market.
Some participants actively seek opportunities
for exporting propylene to overseas markets
in recent years in a bid to mitigate
supply-demand imbalances. However, export
volumes remained limited so far due to a lack
of stable overseas demand.
During January to October 2023, China’s total
export volumes stood at a mere 24,081 tonnes,
with about 92% of the cargoes flowing within
the northeast Asian regions.
Meanwhile, export windows were generally
shortlived and typically opened when regional
production losses occurred amid major
crackers’ turnarounds in Japan, South Korea
and Taiwan.
Cargoes flowing to deep-sea markets were
scarce as arbitrage windows remained closed
most of the time.
Against such a backdrop, most players do
not anticipate significant increases in China
propylene’s export volumes in the near term.
Additional reporting by Joey Zhou
Author: Seymour Chenxia, Analyst
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Butadiene
Author:
Ai Teng Lim,
Senior Editor
Asia BD to wrestle between tight supply and
muted downstream demand
Asia’s spot butadiene (BD) market has been gripped by supply
constraints for some time now. A respite seems to be quite unlikely in
the near term, or at least for Q1 2024, so long as operations at regional
crackers remain sub-optimal.
However, such supply limitations may not impact much on spot trades,
if downstream requirements continue to flounder with persistent global
economic headwinds weighing down recovery of key downstream
industries like automobiles and electronic appliances.
Asia’s spot
butadiene (BD)
market has been
gripped by supply
constraints for
some time now.
BD is extracted from crude C4, supply of which has been crimped by
lower-than-usual cracker operations for much of 2023.
“At some points this year, some crackers were running at barely 60% of
capacity, and this was one of the lowest I have seen in a decade,”
a regional trader mused.
“And if key derivative markets, like the polyolefins, continue to
under-perform, the likelihood that cracker operations would resume
normalcy within the next couple of months seem quite remote,”
the same trader said.
Author: Ai Teng Lim, Senior Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Butadiene
This will also affect operations at regional BD
plants, and BD producers are uncertain if they
could get sufficient feedstock should they
want to or see the need to ramp up.
This is in turn one key stumbling block for
ongoing discussions for BD’s 2024 term
contracts, market players said.
“Negotiations have been draggy,” a trader said,
as “I really cannot promise volumes,” another
regional BD producer added.
This is ironic, as Asia’s total nameplate
capacity for BD has ballooned in the last few
years. Yet, data from ICIS’ Supply and Demand
Database (SnDD) shows that output had not
moved much at all between 2021 and 2023.
“Regional BD plants have been under-utilised,
and it may continue to trend like this in 2024,”
a regional maker lamented.
Asia BD capacity and production
‘000 tonnes/year
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2021 2022 2023
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
Capacity
Production
However, this could also mean that “since
I may not even have enough to meet
contractual requirements, I will not have much
more surplus volumes to put up for spot sales
either,” the same maker highlighted.
BD sellers are convinced that in 2024 they
will continue to wield the upper hand in spot
trades. One maker opined that end-users
would be more anxious to buy than the maker
would be to sell.
Spot offers may stay entrenched as such,
even if derivative prices fail to keep up,
market players said.
BD is used to produce mainly synthetic
rubbers like styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR)
and polybutadiene rubber (PBR), as well as
acylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS).
ABS prices sank to year-low levels by
December 2023, and SBR prices are also some
9% lower than the year-high levels seen in
March 2023, ICIS data showed.
BD sellers are convinced that in 2024
they will continue to wield the upper
hand in spot trades.
Author: Ai Teng Lim, Senior Editor
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16-Dec-2022
23-Dec-2022
06-Jan-2023
13-Jan-2023
20-Jan-2023
27-Jan-2023
03-Feb-2023
10-Feb-2023
17-Feb-2023
24-Feb-2023
03-Mar-2023
10-Mar-2023
17-Mar-2023
24-Mar-2023
31-Mar-2023
07-Apr-2023
14-Apr-2023
21-Apr-2023
28-Apr-2023
05-May-2023
12-May-2023
19-May-2023
26-May-2023
02-Jun-2023
09-Jun-2023
16-Jun-2023
23-Jun-2023
30-Jun-2023
07-Jul-2023
14-Jul-2023
21-Jul-2023
28-Jul-2023
04-Aug-2023
11-Aug-2023
18-Aug-2023
25-Aug-2023
01-Sep-2023
08-Sep-2023
15-Sep-2023
22-Sep-2023
29-Sep-2023
06-Oct-2023
13-Oct-2023
20-Oct-2023
27-Oct-2023
03-Nov-2023
10-Nov-2023
17-Nov-2023
24-Nov-2023
01-Dec-2023
08-Dec-2023
15-Dec-2023
22-Dec-2023
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Butadiene
Asia ABS, Butadiene, SBR spot price history
$/tonne
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
Source: ICIS
ABS General Purpose, Injection Grade CFR NE Asia Butadiene CFR NE Asia SBR 1502, Non-Oil Grade CIF China
These sluggish derivative prices heightened concerns about
downstream affordability issues, and ABS/SBR makers will be mindful
not to over-commit on feedstock purchases in the new year, especially
“not when my margins [have] already suffered so much,” a rubber
maker stressed.
Indeed, based on ICIS data, the spread between SBR and feedstock
BD were mostly under the healthy line in 2023.
The spread
between SBR
and feedstock BD
were mostly under
the healthy line
in 2023.
Spread between feedstock BD and SBR in NE Asia
$/tonne
Source: ICIS
ABS and rubber makers have pinned their demand hopes on China,
since this is a major regional outlet for cars and electrical appliances,
both of which are key downstream industries for ABS and
synthetic rubbers.
Author: Ai Teng Lim, Senior Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Asia Butadiene
However, “China has been disappointing,
and I am not optimistic either looking ahead,”
a rubber maker lamented.
Consumer spending on discretionary goods
like cars and appliances is heavily reliant on
economic growth, and there is still no clarity if
China is on the right track of growth, judging
from how its official purchasing manufacturing
index (PMI) has fluctuated in recent times.
The OECD moderated China’s growth
forecast for 2024 recently, which further
dented confidence. Globally, the economic
outlook is also hazy, amid various
headwinds like inflationary pressures
and geopolitical tensions.
ABS and rubber makers
may continue to control and
calibrate their production to
avoid being saddled with too
much unsold volumes, as well
as to control cost outlay.
In this climate, ABS and rubber makers
may continue to control and calibrate their
production, like they have done for much of
2023, to avoid being saddled with too much
unsold volumes, as well as to control
cost outlay.
These will invariably weigh on requirements
for BD, capping upside potential for spot
trades even if spot availabilities of BD remain
tight in the new year, market players said.
Author: Ai Teng Lim, Senior Editor
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - China Butadiene
Author:
Aviva Zhang,
Analyst
China BD market supply still tight,
downstream expansion provides support
In 2024, China’s butadiene (BD) capacity expansion will slow, but
downstream ABS and others may continue to launch new facilities,
and so downstream sectors will still have room to accept overseas
BD supply.
According to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database, China’s
demand for BD in 2024 will increase by 9% compared with 2023, and
demand for BD from downstream sectors such as ABS, PBR, and SBS
will increase.
China’s demand
for BD in 2024
will increase by
9% compared
with 2023.
On the supply side, Sinopec Tianjin Nangang and Yulong Petrochemical
will start up new BD plants in the middle or the second half of 2024.
These are partly equipped with downstream plants, so additional spot
supply to the market will be relatively limited. Based on this, BD market
supply may remain tight in 2024, and some traders expect the import
window to open.
In 2023, China’s BD prices fluctuated in an overall M trend. With some
plant maintenance and start-up delays, BD prices rose at the beginning
of the year. Import supply then flowed into China in the middle of the
year, with the launch of BD rubber futures driving market sentiment. In
November, tight port supply pushed the market up, though it soon fell
back due to downstream maintenance.
Author: Aviva Zhang, Analyst
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04-Jan-2023
10-Jan-2023
16-Jan-2023
20-Jan-2023
31-Jan-2023
06-Feb-2023
10-Feb-2023
16-Feb-2023
22-Feb-2023
28-Feb-2023
06-Mar-2023
10-Mar-2023
16-Mar-2023
22-Mar-2023
28-Mar-2023
03-Apr-2023
10-Apr-2023
14-Apr-2023
20-Apr-2023
25-Apr-2023
04-May-2023
09-May-2023
15-May-2023
19-May-2023
25-May-2023
31-May-2023
06-Jun-2023
12-Jun-2023
16-Jun-2023
25-Jun-2023
29-Jun-2023
05-Jul-2023
11-Jul-2023
17-Jul-2023
21-Jul-2023
27-Jul-2023
02-Aug-2023
08-Aug-2023
14-Aug-2023
18-Aug-2023
24-Aug-2023
30-Aug-2023
05-Sep-2023
11-Sep-2023
15-Sep-2023
21-Sep-2023
27-Sep-2023
09-Oct-2023
13-Oct-2023
19-Oct-2023
25-Oct-2023
31-Oct-2023
06-Nov-2023
10-Nov-2023
16-Nov-2023
22-Nov-2023
28-Nov-2023
04-Dec-2023
08-Dec-2023
14-Dec-2023
20-Dec-2023
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - China Butadiene
China butadiene spot price history
CNY/tonne
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
Butadiene DEL N China
Butadiene DEL E China
Source: ICIS
According to ICIS senior olefins analyst
Paolo Scafetta, global BD prices in 2024 are
unlikely to reach values seen in 2023 due to
an expected decline in energy and feedstock
prices, weaker US appetite, and increased
global capacity.
Dark clouds will continue to threaten
Germany’s BD industry in the years to come.
Several tyre makers are rethinking the future
of their production assets in the country, with
Michelin due to close three sites in Karlsruhe,
Trier and Homburg by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, the US BD market is expected
to become more self-sufficient next year
following a scheduled expansion of BD
capacity in Houston, Texas, and the closure of
an adiponitrile (ADN) unit in Orange, Texas, in
early October 2023. Surplus European supply
may therefore flow to Asia, including China,
instead of the US.
From January to October, China imported
around 360,000 tonnes of BD, accounting
for less than 10% of total domestic production.
However, due to downstream expansion
there is still room for the Chinese market to
receive more BD from overseas sources in
the future, and import activity may continue.
Furthermore, based on possible short-term
arbitrage opportunities in 2024, some
players will still actively participate in
the export market.
In 2023, BD rubber futures promoted the
vitality of China’s BD industry, and some
rubber futures market players paid more
attention to the Chinese BD market. Some
players said that BD rubber futures would
affect the BD market based on emotion, partly
reflected by the speed of the rise and fall of BD
prices. However, other market players said that
the BD market would still be dominated by its
own supply and demand fundamentals, with
limited influence from futures.
In 2024, ABS will be one of the driving
forces for BD demand. Hengli and Zhejiang
Petrochemical each have ABS plants to be put
into production. With a rapid expansion of ABS
production capacity over the past two years,
China’s ABS industry may experience a round
of industry rebalancing and will threaten the
South Korean ABS market to some extent.
According to some market sources, China’s
ABS plants may show more demand, as some
overseas factories are cutting ABS plants rates
locally while the rates of plants based in China
are increasing.
From January to October,
China imported around 360,000
tonnes of BD.
Author: Aviva Zhang, Analyst
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe Ethylene & propylene
Author:
Nel Weddle,
Senior Editor, Olefins
Repeat of 2023 with some glimpses of
optimism for Europe ethylene, propylene
Most European olefins players agree that 2024 is the hardest year
yet to predict.
That’s quite a statement considering all the events over the recent past
– the coronavirus pandemic, the challenges on global supply chains
and not least the spikes in the energy sector following Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine.
Most European
olefins players
agree that 2024 is
the hardest year
yet to predict.
“[There are] just too many different scenarios,” said one olefins player.
On top of this, another challenge is developing, one that could
potentially threaten any recovery in demand - supply chain disruptions,
specifically deep-sea flows.
Author: Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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Million tonnes of excess capacity
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
%
2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe ethylene & propylene
2023 recap
For 2023, the general view was that while
demand would be soft and hand-to-mouth
driven by high cost of living consumer
concerns, once the worst of the winter, and
presumably high energy costs, were behind
us, sources could feasibly expect some
sustained improvements in demand, however
slight, by the year end.
As we all know by now, that has not been the
case. Instead, players up and down the value
chains have had to continuously manage and
adapt to persistent low demand on the one
hand and high-cost pressures on the other.
Unsustainable margins over a prolonged
period of time and with limited positive
outlook for a recovery soon has already led to
a number of petrochemical plant closures.
Players certainly expect to see more efforts
to rationalise production and most assume
the bulk of these will be relating to European
assets where a changed energy landscape,
high interest rates, regulatory challenges
have and will be impacting on market
competitiveness in the future especially
amid high capacity growth.
Global capacity exceeding demand in the six petrochemical building blocks
Million tonnes of excess capacity | %
90
300
250
200
150
100
50
83.33
76.67
70
63.33
56.67
0
50
Ethylene Propylene Butadiene Benzene Mixed xylenes Toluene Total Utilization rate (%)
Note: Equivalent demand for the monomers, meaning demand for all their downstream derivatives
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Contractual volume commitments were
some 20-50% lower in 2023 versus 2022,
necessitating a similar cut back in cracker
operations, but a couple of unplanned
productions issues have also helped to some
extent to keep balances under control.
The first quarter was as players had
expected – slightly improved compared
with the previous quarter – but otherwise
still very much below par. A long running
cracker outage in France which had begun
late December 2022 helped to keep balances
under control.
Market players were increasingly, although
tentatively, optimistic for a rebound, however
small, in the second quarter.
The reopening of the key China market after
COVID-19 protocols were lifted was the driver
everyone thought was needed to get most
markets back on track.
The second quarter is traditionally the peak
demand quarter too, so it is not a surprise
that players were expecting better times and
adapting their business strategies to suit.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe ethylene & propylene
However, the boost never really came. Instead,
derivative producers cut ethylene propylene
consumption more drastically and cracker
operators had to follow suit. Some sellers were
forced to export propylene volumes.
Crackers ran at technical minimums and a
couple of other crackers were idled – although
this was never confirmed. A couple of crackers
are still idle, according to sources and some
question when or whether they will return.
The summer period was dire but for a few, not
as bad as had been expected. Inventories were
reduced. Planned cracker maintenance got
underway and several unexpected production
issues were also very supportive.
Better balances meant that extreme
oversupply pressures were alleviated and the
prospect of exports at prices below cost just
to evacuate tonnes, faded.
However, the boost never really came.
Instead, derivative producers cut
ethylene propylene consumption more
drastically and cracker operators had
to follow suit.
Propylene imports/exports 2023
Tonnes
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Ethylene imports/exports 2023
Tonnes
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe ethylene & propylene
Europe ethylene & propylene price history
€/tonne
Source: ICIS
Supply issues continued to drive the
markets for the remainder of the year.
Prompt spot availability tightened and spot
prices firmed.
Propylene supply was especially impacted
given refinery maintenance at the same time.
Demand for spot tonnes to cover the planned
maintenance and the unplanned issues was
very healthy – a function of the high spot
exposure versus contractual volume cuts.
Now, at year-end, sentiment is one of
acceptance essentially that no meaningful
return to normal demand levels is expected
next year and olefins markets will remain in
survival mode. More importantly perhaps is
that no-one expects demand to get worse .
“Sources say it’s hard to
imagine demand could
get worse, these levels
are apparently the worst
the industry has ever
seen,” a player said.
“Sources say it’s hard to imagine demand
could get worse, these levels are apparently
the worst the industry has ever seen,”
a player said.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe ethylene & propylene
Demand
2024 term contract discussions have taken
longer to deal with than usual and there is
comment that some players have still not
finalised commitments – this is the case down
the value chains as well. Everyone is uncertain
where to peg their demand.
Suppliers, keen to have the majority of
volumes secured under contract, rather than
being at the mercy of spot developments,
have had to be much more flexible in terms of
discounts and rebates than before.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that contract
discounts have deepened for 2024 for both
ethylene and propylene, but especially so for
the latter – the discussions having centred on
the persistent large disparity between spot
and contract prices in 2023.
There have been mixed approaches by
consumers. Some report they have been very
cautious and extremely conservative in
their demand planning for 2024 – increasing
potential spot exposure - at the same time
recognising that low cracker operations means
limited buffer if unexpected issues occur.
Others say they have repeated 2023 volumes
but either have changed suppliers or
increased minimum and maximum volume
allocation flexibility, as well as increasing the
discount.
A close focus on inventory levels will persist.
Sources say there is some optimism to be
had but this mostly stands on the hope that
inflationary worries will fade, and interest rates
will start to fall, putting money back into the
hands of the end consumer.
The second half of 2024 is the earliest players
anticipate some structural improvements in
demand, though as mentioned earlier, higher
prices because of supply chain challenges
could derail this.
EU propylene production
kilotonnes
Source: Petrochemicals Europe
Supply
Crackers are expected to maintain low operating rates and output to stay
well below average.
The graphs below show production figures released by statistics agency
Petrochemicals Europe – the quarterly figures are delayed by two quarters
but, even so, clearly reflect the reduction in output these last 18 months.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe ethylene & propylene
EU ethylene production
kilotonnes
Source: Petrochemicals Europe
The planned cracker maintenance schedule
has been more difficult to define for 2024
than in previous years. This may be because
the pandemic delayed some planning but
sources say that some operators might have
already taken the opportunity to do some
maintenance things while operations have
been reduced.
market conditions. A faster recovery on the
ethylene side could lead to cracker ramp ups
and therefore more length on propylene and
vice versa.
It could be a bumpy road for spot players
in 2024 with peaks and troughs driven by
monomer and derivative production issues.
So far, around six crackers are thought due to
undergo a turnaround in 2024 - not a repeat of
2019’s heavy turnaround schedule.
SABIC’s No 3 olefins cracker in the Netherlands
has been earmarked for closure by May,
sources said, but at some point during the
first quarter SABIC is expected to bring its UK
cracker back online. The company has not
commented on operations.
With prolonged reduced operating rates,
operational reliability decreases so there is the
potential for unexpected supply disruption.
On the cracker side, this could lead to periods
of tightness as cracker operators will not be
able to ramp up quickly enough, but similarly
unexpected issues on the derivative side,
could lead to supply pressure. Much will
depend on demand levels.
A faster recovery
on the ethylene
side could lead to
cracker ramp ups
and therefore more
length on propylene
and vice versa.
Propylene players have another concern
in that the crackers are driven by ethylene
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe Butadiene
Author:
Nel Weddle,
Senior Editor, Olefins
Europe BD challenging, Q1 looks stronger
but jury out on rest of year
It comes as no surprise that market conditions will remain challenging
for Europe’s butadiene (BD) producers and consumers in 2024.
Ongoing uncertainties over macroeconomic developments and
difficulties predicting demand remain at the heart of the equation.
However, there is an expectation that demand for Europe’s BD
derivatives will show a gradual, if only minimal improvement compared
with 2023.
Synthetic rubber players do appear to be slightly less pessimistic than
those engaged in the acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) sector.
It comes as no
surprise that
market conditions
will remain
challenging
for Europe’s
butadiene (BD)
producers and
consumers
in 2024.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe Butadiene
Motor vehicle sector growth by region
2024 vs 2023 growth (%)
Source: Oxford Economics
Domestic appliances sector growth by region
2024 vs 2023 growth (%)
Note: India’s growth numbers based on local currency
Source: Oxford Economics
This is based on hopes that inflation will continue to fall and
with it interest rates which will ease cost-of-living pressures
on end consumers.
Synthetic rubber players
do appear to be slightly less
pessimistic than
those engaged in the
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene
(ABS) sector.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe Butadiene
GDP growth by region
2024 vs 2023 growth (%)
Source: Oxford Economics
This is the best we can expect as a return
to pre-COVID demand levels is certainly not
on the table, especially given plant closures
announced this year – tyre production in
Germany, synthetic rubber production in
Belgium and the UK.
“More volumes don’t mean we end up with
better [financial] results,” a source said.
A further rationalisation of downstream assets
is expected, most certainly in Europe.
Despite capacity growth in Asia, some appetite
is still expected there for imported tonnes in
2024, especially post the Chinese Lunar New
Year in early February when a series of planned
turnarounds will impact regional supply.
There is ready availability from the US and
Brazil and on paper at least ex-Europe, so
competition for Asian demand, however big or
small, will be high.
Global BD price developments might
be limited by overcapacity and reduced
affordability even if sales volumes improve.
On the other hand, Europe’s own spot
availability will continue to be curtailed by
rate cuts at crackers and Q1 spot volumes
are already sold out, according to a couple of
producers - so price increases will be needed
to incentivize any ramp ups in production
assuming that ethylene and propylene market
conditions are also supportive.
A further rationalisation
of downstream assets is
expected, most certainly
in Europe.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe Butadiene
2023 Recap
The lifting of China’s coronavirus protocols
early in the year proved to be a false dawn
which boosted market sentiment for a time,
but failed to follow through.
Planned maintenances in Asia and the US were
a little supportive, with Europe best placed to
satisfy Asian demand.
Q2 was especially disappointing however as
inventory levels continued to build even with
reduced operating rates, and this sparked a
more drastic reduction in BD consumption.
The market outlook from here on in was very
pessimistic and the impact on spot margins
was very clear to see as prices fell.
An unexpected supply disruption in the US
coincided with the peak for Asia turnarounds,
again leaving Europe in the hot seat to supply
tonnes, and prices in Asia started to rise.
European exporters were able to export at
levels above naphtha, derivative producers -
specifically synthetic rubber producers - were
able to entertain exports again – something
that had not at all been viable in
H1 2023 – and the pace of cheaper derivative
imports slowed.
The bulk of European production turnarounds
got underway towards the end of Q3 and
various other unplanned events also occurred
which tightened up the supply and demand
balance.
Asian prices have since retreated from the
highs seen over the summer, but Europe’s own
supply issues have meant the focus has shifted
from export to domestic.
Supply issues have persisted into December
and this will set the scene for a potentially
quite tight January.
The market outlook from here on in
was very pessimistic and the impact
on spot margins was very clear to see
as prices fell.
Europe BD spot and contract price developments in 2023:
Europe butadiene price history
€/tonne
Source: ICIS
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe Butadiene
BD exports in 2023:
EU butadiene exports
Tonnes
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
Demand
Sellers have reported healthy nominations
from domestic customers for Q1 2024, largely
because inventories are currently very low and
need to be replenished.
As a result, exports look like they will take
a back seat - with minimal spot availability
unless increased production is incentivized.
After stocks have been re-filled though,
it is anyone’s guess what will follow in Q2
and beyond.
Some players expect offtakes to fall back, but
others hope this will not be the case given that
winter pressures on energy costs will diminish
and the turnaround season will be in play.
A supply shortfall in China based on derivative
start-ups would certainly help.
Logistical challenges could make all the
difference in 2024.
There are already concerns about the huge
disruption a German rail strike will cause to
product flows both upstream and
downstream. An “unlimited” strike has been
called by the unions on 8 January unless some
agreement can be found in the meantime.
Some players are already taking action
and have put plans in place to mitigate the
potential disruption.
From a deep-sea point of view, Panama Canal
transit restrictions have impacted on US BD
exports with recent fixtures re-routed through
the Suez Canal, although attacks and the
threat of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants
in the Red Sea means that many shippers are
looking to avoid the Suez Canal as well.
Given that these constraints will affect
everything from crude oil and natural gas to
finished goods, the impact could be quite
severe - primarily the prospect of higher costs
which could derail a demand recovery, and
longer lead times which could cause product
shortages.
Few wish to repeat the post-COVID supply
chain challenges of 2021-2022.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024 Global Market Outlook - Olefins - Europe Butadiene
Supply
EU production data from statistics agency Petrochemical Europe
shows just how far production was cut back in 2022 and how this
continued in 2023:
EU butadiene production
Kilotonnes
Source: Petrochemical Europe
BD output will remain reduced in 2024,
aligned with contractual demand.
Crackers will continue to run at low rates,
currently talked around technical minimums.
Scheduled cracker maintenance will be
undertaken at around six crackers in 2024, but
not a repeat of the heavy turnaround schedule
seen in 2019.
Higher rates are not envisaged unless
operators are confident that they can cover
all of a cracker’s output.
The outlook for fellow
cracker products
ethylene and propylene
is similarly difficult
to predict, but there
is hope for some
improvement across
the year.
The outlook for fellow cracker products
ethylene and propylene is similarly difficult
to predict, but there is hope for some
improvement across the year.
“We are in a better place compared to where
we were this time in 2022,” a source said.
Some players say we should be happy
enough with that for the time being.
Author: Nel Weddle, Senior Editor, Olefins
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2024
Global Market
Outlook
Shaping tomorrow together
Olefins
America | Asia | Europe
www.icis.com
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