Arsenal Recruitment Plan

Arsenal Recruitment Plan - Summer 2024
Jack Buckingham - @NLJac

Introduction
Hello and welcome! This piece is intended to analyze Arsenal’s squad for the
2023/2024 season. The content displayed in this piece was produced in a variety of
different ways. Some player radars, heatmaps, and transfer suggestions were
generated through my own coding projects that I have been working on.
Additionally, we collected relevant data from various football websites, which I will
link at the end of this piece.
After the squad analysis, we will discuss which positions or roles Arsenal should be
looking to upgrade, as well as the relevant players Arsenal should be targeting.
If you have any questions about the piece or any of its content, please don’t hesitate
to reach out to me via DM. I also want to quickly give credit to @DiggoryEthan,
whose phenomenal Wolves Recruitment Plan served as an inspiration and guide
for creating my first recruitment plan. With all that out of the way, let’s dig in!

Squad Age | Minutes Analysis
Arsenal has 7 players nearly
over 3,000 minutes and 9
players who played less than
1,000 minutes. Primary focus
should be on bridging that gap
next year to have a more
balanced minutes distribution
amongst the squad
Arsenal have the 4th youngest
average age in the PL at 25.1
Majority of players in the ‘peak’
years
Squad size of 27 is quite small
Three central midfielders in the
‘Experienced’ section with
under 1,000 minutes for each
highlights a need for perhaps
younger and more reliable
midfielder.

Squad Depth 24/25

Squad Depth 24/25 Pt 2.
The following players either spent last season out on loan, or in
the academy, and are expected to feature with the team at
least during preseason. Their name is accompanied by their
position, age, and contract expiry year.
Loanees Returning
Kiernan Tierney, Left Back, 27, (2026)
Nuno Tavares, Left Wing Back, 24, (2025)
Albert Sambi Lokonga, Central Midfield, 23, (2026)
Charlie Patino, Central Midfield, 20, (Undisclosed)
Mika Biereth, Striker, 21, (Undisclosed)
Academy Players Most Likely Getting Promoted
Ethan Nwaneri, Attacking Midfield, 17, (Undisclosed)
Myles Lewis-Skelly, Central Midfield, 17, (Undisclosed)
Amario Cozier-Duberry, Right Wing, 19, (2024, in need of renewal)

First Team
Squad

Tactical Overview
Arsenal’s tactical setup fluctuated heavily at times
throughout the year, as head coach Mikel Arteta often
tweaks his setups based on opponents and available
personnel.
The presented formation on the left has multiple iterations
in possession, often shifting into a 3-4-3, 3-5-2, or even a 3-6-
1 at times. Out of possession, the team almost always resorts
to a standard 4-4-2 and has shown a willingness to both
press high and sit in a deeper block when necessary.
It is quite possible that Arsenal undergoes another tactical
evolution this summer, as they have done almost every year
under Arteta. However, for this analysis, we will evaluate
current and prospective players under the assumption that
these roles remain mainly the same.
Using both FBref charts and my own charts created using
Python (for players who do not have enough minutes to
qualify for an FBref chart), we will analyze each player
individually. Before that, we will look at some of Arsenal’s
passing networks from this season to see how they aim to
set up in possession against different levels of opponents.

Pass Networks
While pass networks can only tell you so much, they serve as a good way to help us visualize how
Arsenal generally tries to set up.
There is a clear focus on controlling the midfield by generating numerical advantages. We can
see Zinchenko's inversion in the first network, the inclusion of Jorginho alongside Rice against
stronger opponents, and Jesus positioned nearly as deep as the two 8s in the last network as
examples of this.

Sweeper Keeper -
Aaron Ramsdale
Heading into the 23/24 season, few, if any, Arsenal fans believed
Ramsdale needed a replacement. However, that did not prevent Mikel
Arteta from attempting to upgrade on Ramsdale.
The primary reason behind this stems from Arteta’s desire for a
goalkeeper who is comfortable operating as a makeshift outfield player
in possession, as well as playing outside the box as a true sweeper
keeper out of possession. This could also partially stem from Ramsdale’s
sporadic nature as a keeper, which led to some key mistakes last season.
Ranking in the 65th percentile for his average distance of defensive
actions and the 71st percentile for frequency of defensive actions outside
the penalty area, Ramsdale has shown proficiency as a sweeper keeper,
but not exactly at the level Arteta requires. He also admitted in an
interview that he and Arteta initially disagreed on how far out of his box
he should go, and they eventually found a compromise. In hindsight, this
should have indicated that Arteta would never fully trust Ramsdale and
that his time in the XI was always at risk.
My Input: With David Raya having fully secured the #1 spot, Arsenal
should look to sell Ramsdale this summer before his value drops any
further. Their decision to extend his contract right before signing Raya
was a clear way to try and protect his value. As a talented keeper who is
an England regular and only 26 years old, Arsenal stands to make a good
profit on their €25.00m investment if they play the market correctly.
If/when sold, Arsenal will need to be in the market for a true #2 keeper
they can rely on.

My Input: If it hasn’t already, Raya’s loan will soon turn into a permanent
transfer. As a talented keeper who understands and can properly
execute the coach’s philosophies while remaining uber calm on the
pitch, Arsenal is set to continue forward with Raya for the coming years.
He is only 28, so any other goalkeeper purchases will serve as potential
backups rather than immediate successors.
Sweeper Keeper -
David Raya
David Raya’s signing and insertion into the first team may have been a
polarizing decision among both fans and club staff at first, but by the
end of the season, few questioned his legitimacy as part of the team.
Raya is much more comfortable playing outside his box, as evidenced by
his percentiles for average distance of defensive actions (94th) and
defensive actions outside the penalty area (87th). His cross-claiming
(99th percentile) was also supremely beneficial to Arsenal’s defensive
solidity. With Arsenal’s extremely strong defensive base, opposition
often resorted to long balls into the box, hoping for a moment of magic.
Even though he is undersized for a goalie at just about 6 feet, Raya
showed no trouble claiming dangerous ball after dangerous ball. Raya
does a phenomenal job of foreseeing danger before it even materializes
and snuffing it out. It’s probably why he will be consistently
underappreciated during his time here.
While it does not show up on the radar, Raya also provided a level of
confidence and stability on the ball in possession that Ramsdale did not
have and showed a willingness to become the 11th outfield player in
possession. As previously mentioned, this is arguably Arteta’s biggest
requirement for his goalkeeper.

Full Back -
Ben White
A former center back, Ben White has completed his second full season
primarily at right back for Arsenal. White served as one of Arsenal’s most
consistent players throughout the season and allegedly played through
injury to remain available during Arsenal’s fullback injury crisis around
December.
White is one of Arsenal’s most important players in possession. From
assisting in buildup to making bursting overlaps into the box, White is
fundamentally involved in nearly everything Arsenal does when creating
danger. Arsenal’s best two-man game, between Saka and Ødegaard, is
only possible due to White’s technical prowess and energy.
His experience as a center back is evident in his defensive percentiles.
While he dominates his opponents in the air (93rd percentile), he
struggles with tricky wingers he matches up against (6th and 23rd
percentile). He’s unafraid to put his body on the line, ranking in the 70th
percentile for blocks. Even if his winger beats him to get a shot off, he
does a very good job of making sure it doesn't reach the goal.
My Input: White is here to stay, and that is definitely for the best.
However, Arsenal should be careful to manage his minutes. White also
currently serves as the RCB backup to Saliba, so there should be a
potential focus on acquiring a more traditional fullback who could
provide White with rotation and Arsenal with a different style of player
they could use against certain opposition

Full Back -
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Tomiyasu serves as Arsenal’s Swiss army knife in defense, logging over
100 minutes at each of Arsenal’s four defensive positions. He is
ambipedal, capable both in defense and attack, and has even shown the
ability to invert into the midfield from the left-back position. Tomiyasu’s
biggest drawback is his ability to stay fit. In his first three years with
Arsenal, he has missed at least 16 Premier League games each season. As
primarily a rotation option who is relied upon when any of the starters in
the backline go down, this is not an ideal combination to have.
His radar shows a very well-rounded player. While he may not be as
flashy in possession as some of Arsenal’s other players, his percentiles
for Progressive Passes (93rd), Assists (81st), and non-penalty expected
goals (npxG) (93rd) indicate how impactful he can be for Arsenal going
forward.
His excellent anticipation skills are shown through his Interceptions
percentile (78th), and like White, he uses his physical advantages to
ensure he rarely loses challenges (83rd) and wins numerous aerial duels
(90th).
My input: Tomiyasu recently received an extension that runs through
2027, with a team option for another year. This is good business, in my
opinion. If he stays healthy, he will continue to be a key contributor for
Arsenal, locked down for the next four years. If he can’t stay healthy,
Arsenal will have ample time to sell. Even with his injuries, his positional
flexibility and overall quality would almost certainly allow them to make
a profit on their initial £16 million investment.

My Input: Kiwior is still quite young and coming along nicely. He
probably would’ve been playing a lot more if Gabriel wasn’t an iron man.
Arsenal is not looking to sell him, but there are certainly teams in the
market for him. This season will be interesting to see whether he
emerges as a true squad player or just largely an emergency backup.
Full Back -
Jakub Kiwior
Jakub Kiwior is arguably one of Arsenal’s most interesting players. He
was brought in last January primarily to serve as Gabriel’s backup at
LCB, but his longest stretch in the starting XI this season came at left
back, and it was Arsenal’s best stretch all year!
Kiwior shines brightest when he’s on the ball. This can be illustrated by
his Pass Completion % (79th), Progressive Passing Distance (74th), and
Passes Into Final Third (82nd) percentiles. The eye test also supports this
narrative; he’s one of the best players in the squad at providing his
teammates with passes that are hit with the right pace and direction,
allowing the receiver to control it in one fluid motion. He’s also
developing a nice long switch, which can help quickly isolate wingers 1v1
against their fullbacks. He has occasionally gotten himself into trouble
with some heavy touches under pressure, but when he is given time to
pick his pass, his quality begins to really show.
Despite being played primarily out of position, his defensive numbers
actually surprised me. There were a handful of moments throughout the
season where he really looked out of position (vs. Sane in particular was
rough), but he generally managed to hold his own against his opposition.
He also made up for this largely with his superiority in aerial duels
(noticing a trend yet?).

My Input: Zinchenko is still probably the most natural inverter from LB in
world football, which certainly means something. That being said, Arsenal
is not nearly as reliant on him to progress the ball anymore while still
sacrificing their defensive stability with his inclusion. With Timber fully
healthy now, Zinchenko’s role in the team is a bit more unclear. I would
like to potentially see him at the left 8 spot, which is actually more
naturally his position and where he plays for Ukraine.
Full Back -
Oleksandr Zinchenko
You wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at the radar, but Oleksandr
Zinchenko was arguably the defender that came under the most criticism
from Arsenal fans this season. A year removed from him coming into the
team and elevating their progression to a new level, he is now on the
outside looking in regarding the first XI.
His passing ability and willingness to show for the ball in space are clearly
illustrated on the left, and even his defensive numbers stack up really well
in comparison to his teammates at fullback. Still, you would be hardpressed
to find an Arsenal fan who didn’t believe he regressed this year.
Those thoughts can also be accentuated by certain sequences that stick
in fans’ minds longer. He had a handful of giveaways that led to some
dangerous chances, which tracks with him ranking in the 27th percentile
in Dispossessions. He also had more lapses in concentration compared to
his teammates that created danger for the defense.
While most useful offensively against teams that deep block, that has
often been negated by the opposition targeting him with long balls and
players who can punish his lack of physicality and composure in duels.

My input: Saliba is good. Very good. Arsenal is lucky to have him. They are
also very fortunate they got away with playing him every single minute
without an injury. There should be a clear effort to acquire at least one
player who can serve as a reliable backup for Saliba. They should also work
to take more advantage of his developing carrying ability, something I
expect we will see more of next year.
Center Back -
William Saliba
There are not enough words to describe William Saliba. At 22 years old, he is
already making a case as arguably the best center half in the league. He is
integral to everything Arsenal and Arteta do, playing every available minute
of the Premier League season this year. It would be an understatement to
describe him as crucial to the team’s success.
In my opinion, his radar still does not do him justice. All of Arsenal’s buildup
play flows through him, and he exudes a calmness on the ball rarely seen in
someone his age. His ability to break the press and play line-splitting passes
has become so pertinent that teams have begun to sit off him. His carrying
ability is quite good and has room to grow, ranking in the 84th percentile,
but I expect it to improve even further as he gets more opportunities due to
not being pressed. His technical security and composure on the ball are
what players at any position dream of.
Defensively, there is little drop-off. He is extremely hard to get by, as his
percentile for Dribbles Tackled (81st) indicates, and his playing every minute
of a campaign where Arsenal ranked first in goals allowed and expected
goals against (xGA) pays tribute to the immense work he does. His
percentile for Aerials Won highlights arguably his weakest point: reading
the ball in the air. That is clearly the next step in his defensive growth.

Center Back -
My input: There are rumors Arsenal is working on an extension with him,
and for good reason. Gabriel has established himself as the primary
choice at left center back (LCB) in this Arsenal side and has continuously
improved each year. Like Saliba, Arsenal should be wary of the nearly
4000 minutes Gabriel played this season and look to rotate him and
Kiwior more often next season to avoid an injury to the former.
Gabriel Magalhães
It feels like a lifetime ago now, but Gabriel started the season with three
straight games on the bench and being linked to a move to Saudi Arabia.
Since his re-entry into the team, he has largely played his best football
since coming to Arsenal. Where Saliba is ice cool, Gabriel is his fiery-hot
counterpart, and they complement each other immensely.
Gabriel is often asked to engage his opponents more aggressively and
physically than Saliba, which he handles quite well as seen by his 95th
percentile in Dribblers Tackled. He has also cut down on his number of
errors that popped up at times last season, ranking in the 65th and 64th
percentiles for Errors and Being Dispossessed, respectively.
Gabriel’s ball-playing is not on Saliba’s level, but he is still very capable
and is often tasked with playing lofted balls to the left winger to help
isolate his fullback 1v1 without time for the opposing winger to form a
double team.
He scored four goals this year, all from set pieces, and all with his head.
His ability to attack the ball could still use a bit of work defensively, as
seen by his aerial percentiles, but from an offensive perspective, he is
consistently Arsenal’s biggest threat in the air on set pieces.

Center Midfield-
Declan Rice
It is quite rare that a team spends £105 million on a player and they
immediately justify the fee, but that’s pretty much what Declan Rice did. He
spent time as a left-sided 8, as well as a lone 6, and performed at an elite
level in both roles.
When playing as a 6, Rice operates as the link between defense and attack.
While a capable passer, Rice does his progressive damage via carrying, as
evidenced by his 96th percentile rank in Progressive Carrying Distance. His
combination of athleticism, physicality, and technique makes him nearly
impossible to dispossess once he gets off and running. This is often how he
makes his mark in attack as an 8 too, with bursting overlaps or carries into
space when he is afforded it.
Defensively, Rice is even better. He is capable of serving as the security
blanket for the back four, even dropping into center back when necessary,
but he is also arguably Arsenal’s most dangerous presser. When engaged in
a high press, he can utilize his reading of the game and his athleticism to
constantly force turnovers high up the pitch. He has extremely long legs but
also good control of them, and that, combined with his tremendous reading
of the game, allows him to spring forward and win the ball the instant the
opponent shows even the slightest bit too much of the ball to him.
My Input: I didn’t even get to touch on Rice’s emergence as a set-piece
specialist or the fact his 15 G/A tally was the highest of his career. He lived
up to almost every expectation, and there’s still endless potential to explore.
Once again, the biggest focus should be on acquiring someone Arteta trusts
to alleviate some of Rice’s heavy minutes.

Center Midfield-
Jorginho
When Jorginho was brought in last January, there was plenty of skepticism
about what role an aging 32-year-old could play in this high-flying young
team. The £12 million investment has paid off, though, as he’s provided
invaluable experience both on and off the pitch.
Jorginho’s most impactful games this year came when he was paired with
Rice in the midfield. Coincidentally, many of those were Arsenal’s best
games too. Rice’s athleticism and defensive prowess allow Jorginho to focus
on conducting just about everything going on when Arsenal are in
possession. One can routinely see him telling teammates where they should
be positioned, and his radar illustrates just how incisive he is on the ball.
With Jorginho, every pass has a purpose.
Out of possession, Jorginho’s lack of athleticism can be exposed, especially
when Arsenal’s press is broken. His reading of the game and timing of his
tackles are still top quality, though, and Rice’s inclusion alongside him
makes up for many of his physical deficiencies. There are drawbacks with
Jorginho in the midfield, but they require a lot of work to properly exploit.
Many midfielders have watched their legs go while still being a net positive
out of possession through their intelligence, and Jorginho seems well on his
way to joining that group. It also helps when you have Declan Rice beside
you more often than not (have I talked enough about how good Rice is yet?).
My Input: The one-year extension for him was good business. Happy to be a
situational player and extremely well-liked among the squad, Jorginho is a
great option to have around. His unique abilities on the ball will come in
handy for Arsenal in games next year, even if he only features in a handful.

Center Midfield-
Thomas Partey
Thomas Partey was crucial to Arsenal’s success in the 22/23 season, but
injuries severely hampered this season's campaign and left him on the
outside looking in. He may have been featured heavily in the run-in, but
those are likely to be his last moments at Arsenal.
When starting, Partey is asked to play the role of the lone 6 in the buildup.
Supremely skilled on the half turn and playing vertical passes, Partey offers
a much more immediate threat at the 6 than Rice does. However, that does
not come without risk, as evidenced by his 38th percentile rank for being
dispossessed. He has a propensity to occasionally take one touch too many
and seemingly has moments where he switches off in regards to players
around him. These turnovers almost always create immediate danger for
Arsenal due to where they take place on the pitch.
On his day, he is still one of the best defensive midfielders in the world. His
combination of physicality and game IQ allows him to constantly break up
play or quell dangerous moves. When paired with Rice, his defensive
strengths shine brightly as he can sit back, read the game, and time exactly
when to break up play. The flip side is that injuries have begun to catch up
to him, and the number of times he was easily turned or committed to a
challenge he had no chance of winning was concerningly high given the
less intensive role he had compared to previous years.
My input: Arsenal needs a player of Partey’s profile more than they need the
player himself anymore. The market won’t be great for a player of his age,
but they should still look to recoup £10 million or more. It would not be a
good summer for them if Arsenal can’t find a proper replacement as well as
offload him.

Center Midfield-
Martin Ødegaard
It is funny looking back on Arsenal fans who didn’t think Ødegaard was
worth the €35 million they paid for him in 2021. Looking at the world-class
midfielder he is now, that seems to be one of the best bits of transfer
business in recent memory. His performances on the field are only trumped
by his leadership displayed as captain for this emerging Arsenal project.
Ødegaard’s radar feels like something out of a video game for the most part.
Everything Arsenal does in the final third flows through him, and his
combination and chemistry with Saka and White on the right side
frequently generate Arsenal’s most dangerous chances. He and Saka led the
league in both shot-shot assist combinations and goal-assist combinations.
He has also shown a willingness to drop deeper and assist in the first and
second phases of buildup. Arsenal’s performances are often directly
correlated with how frequently Ødegaard is able to get on the ball.
He is also one half of the top of the 4-4-2 Arsenal forms out of possession,
which allows him to conduct almost every aspect of Arsenal’s press.
Ødegaard often directs his teammates when and where to press, all while
tirelessly running himself. He is one of the biggest factors behind why
Arsenal had, at worst, a top 3 press this year.
My input: Arsenal is almost too reliant on Ødegaard. Any long-term injury to
him would hamper them both in and out of possession to a massive degree.
There are perhaps more pressing needs, but finding someone who can
deputize for him that Arteta trusts would go a long way. Arsenal should not
go into next season one Ødegaard injury away from a complete collapse.

Attacking Midfield-
Emile Smith Rowe
Even with pretty much everyone involved with Arsenal wanting Emile Smith Rowe
to become a key player for this team, time is running out for him. Seen on the
radar, his measly 3.9 ‘90s’ across the whole season, even while being mostly injuryfree,
indicate his relatively insignificant role in the team. For someone who only
two years ago looked like he could be one of Arsenal’s top players for years on end,
the drop-off is certainly disappointing.
With all that being said, I thought ESR’s performances this year, even if short-lived,
were quite promising. Even though he’s much more of a 10 (or even potentially a
forward) than he is an 8, he still performed his duties quite well. I often noticed him
dropping into the first or second phase to help with buildup, which is quite new for
him. Additionally, even if the radar doesn’t indicate so, I found his defensive work
to be solid for someone of his profile. At the very least, he wasn’t afraid to get
physical in his duels, a good sign given his already lengthy injury history, and a
non-negotiable trait for Arteta’s midfielders.
What ESR offers to this team is a lot of qualities they don’t really have. He is a great
carrier of the ball and drives at defenders or into the space they afford him,
something a little lacking among the squad. Additionally, his directness
complements some of Arsenal’s more patient attackers. Even if he didn’t score this
year with his chances, his ball-striking and finishing have historically been quite
reliable.
My Input: Seeing him go would be like a shotgun to the chest, but if he is not in
Arteta’s plans, this is the year to sell him. With two years left on his contract,
Arsenal could stand to make €30 million+ on him, which is too much to pass up if
he is seen as a tertiary squad player at best who has injury problems. I would love
to see Arteta figure out a role for him, and it’s not impossible, but the clock is
ticking rapidly.

My Input: His clock may have started ticking, but I would be shocked (and bummed)
if he was sold this summer. The things he offers on the ball are extremely valuable
and he brings a lot of qualities the team lacks. It all comes down to how he adapts
to his physical deficiencies and if Arteta can help alleviate them with his tactics.
Midfield/Winger-
Fabio Vieira
It was a sophomore season to forget at Arsenal for Fabio Vieira, and like Smith
Rowe, he finds his clock ticking a bit faster than he probably hoped for. There were
certainly moments where Arsenal could have used a player with his final ball ability,
but the rest of his game is simply not polished enough for Arteta to trust him in the
midfield. His utter lack of physicality, and the lack of its progress, only make it
harder for Arteta to trust him in games where Arsenal won’t completely dominate
possession.
Some of his percentiles might be inflated due to his lack of minutes and all stats
being in a per 90 format, but I still believe his radar does well to illustrate what he
can offer Arsenal and why so many are hesitant to fully give up on him. Ranking in
the 92nd percentile for xA per 90 and 94th for xG per 90, he’s proven to be someone
who’s not afraid to try and make things happen, a mental trait in soccer that is
invaluable. He has also shown he can create danger through multiple avenues, as
evidenced by his percentiles for Progressive Carries (88th) and Passes Into the
Penalty Area (91st) per 90. Offering a team a high-level blend of carrying and
passing prowess is exactly the type of ceiling-raiser Arteta is looking for to round
out his squad.
He was unfortunate to receive a harsh straight red against Burnley, right before a
light stretch of the schedule where he was going to get some games under his belt.
Then he seemingly spent a long stretch out injured with an injury we were not
completely briefed on. These things aren’t really much his fault, if at all, but they are
the type of hiccups that have derailed many promising players’ careers. The onus is
almost solely on him to see how he responds to all of it.

Midfield/Forward-
Kai Havertz
If you look on the left, you may think you are looking at one of the best
forwards in the world, that’s *probably* not true. Havertz split his time
between the left 8 and deep-lying forward positions, so for his radar, I was
forced to choose between comparing him to midfielders or forwards, where
his stats look a little less out of this world. The reason I chose to compare him
to midfielders is because I still don’t believe he is Arsenal’s long-term striker
plan, and recent transfer links (more later) would indicate the same.
The term Raumdeuter translates roughly to ‘Space Investigator’. Havertz is at
his best when he can float around until he identifies the proper pockets he
wants to dart into, or in other words, investigate the space. The number of
dangerous positions he finds himself in is not a coincidence but rather a
benefit of his particularly unique ability to identify space. He also is happy to
make decoy runs, which can open up space for his teammates to fill into.
Havertz can provide Arsenal with a more traditional hold-up man up top, and
as seen on the left, he is exceptionally good at doing so. However, he is also a
particularly important defensive contributor both up top and in the midfield.
He is an aerial presence with a knack for reading second balls and an
intelligent presser with beneficial physical attributes.
My Input: The best is yet to come still for Havertz. I think he would thrive
more as a second striker or at the tip of a diamond midfield. Arteta took a
gamble and it largely paid off, but the reality is that a player with Havertz’s
physical traits and intelligence will always be useful. From there, it is simply
about how the coach decides to use the player and how the player responds.
Both Havertz and Arteta deserve a lot of credit for how it panned out.

Midfield/Forward-
Leandro Trossard
Trossard came to Arsenal last January and averaged nearly an assist per
game for the rest of the season while only scoring once. This year, he has
flipped the script and become a lethal finisher while not contributing much
else in possession.
Trossard took up a number of different positions for Arsenal, including on
the left wing, as a false 9, and even at the left 8 position. While lacking the
physicality of some of his teammates, he actually held his own out of
possession without being a detriment to the rest of the team. His high
percentile ranks for Tackles in the Attacking Third and Passes Blocked help
visualize his contributions to Arsenal’s aforementioned elite press.
It is risky to believe his goal output will remain at the pace it was at the end
of the season. His 99th percentile for Goals - Expected Goals (xG) means that
he was finishing at the level of literally the best player in the world, and
while he’s still a very good finisher, that is probably a stretch. His output is
not in any serious danger, though, due to the fact that his xG percentile
(90th) indicates he frequently finds himself in shooting positions, and his
non-penalty expected goals per shot (npxG/Shot) percentile (94th) shows
that those shots are coming from dangerous spots.
My input: At 29, his value is probably not going up, and I highly doubt
Arsenal would really want to sell him anyway. He serves as a great rotation
option who has shown the ability to deliver goals in high-pressure games,
and that is invaluable. There should be plenty of game time to go around
next year as he has shown the ability to fill in at multiple spots in the XI.

Winger-
Bukayo Saka
At only 22 years of age, Bukayo Saka has established himself as one of the
premier forwards in the Premier League, and probably in the world as well.
He is integral to almost every single one of Arsenal’s attacks down the righthand
side (RHS), which is their favorite side to use. His connection with
White and Ødegaard, as previously mentioned, on that RHS, is arguably the
most in-sync and potent one in the league.
Saka’s radar does a pretty good job at showing what he’s good at
offensively—just about everything. Capable of beating his man to the byline
through strength and agility and cutting it back, or delivering a teasing
cross into the box, Saka has multiple ways in which he creates high-quality
chances for his teammates. He has also improved as a finisher year on year.
Comfortable shooting with both feet and with deceptively strong ballstriking,
Saka remains a consistent goal threat alongside his creativity and
dribbling. He also had a 100% conversion rate on seven penalties, showing
his ability to stay composed when the pressure is on.
Arsenal also asks their wingers to do a lot of defensive work, and no one is
better at it than Saka. His Passes Blocked (82nd), and Tackles plus
Interceptions (81st) illuminate the effort and physicality Saka puts into his
defensive efforts, and his Tackles in the Attacking Third percentile (96th)
helps us understand how integral he is to Arsenal’s high press specifically.
My input: A Saka backup has been on the cards for a minute, and it should
happen this summer. You won’t be able to replicate his output, but at this
point, it’s more about giving him proper time to rest and recover than
anything else. Manage his minutes and the sky is the limit for Saka.

My input: Let him be a cautionary tale that not everyone is like Saka; young
players sometimes can have down seasons as they are still putting
everything together, and that’s completely okay. The focus should be on
improving his decision-making, as he absolutely has the athleticism and
technical level to be a potent winger in this team. I also still think that his
best moments might come a little more infield and closer to goal. His
finishing dropped off a bit this year, but his ball-striking and box instincts are
up there with top number 9s.
Winger-
Gabriel Martinelli
The natural assumption for young players like Gabriel Martinelli is that they
will continuously improve year after year, but the reality is often much
different. Arsenal did undergo a tactical shift, swapping Havertz in for Granit
Xhaka’s position, which limited the passing ability of the left side of the
midfield, but Martinelli’s struggles still largely stem from his own issues.
There’s a belief among Arsenal fans that he is forced to play too far out wide,
which restricts his ability to get into dangerous positions, and that’s where
his struggles come from, but I don’t really agree with that. He’s getting into
the right spots but is generally making the wrong choices, something not
uncommon for forwards of his age. We can see his Touches in the Attacking
Penalty Area and Progressive Passes Received percentiles (98th for both) as
proof that it’s not a lack of service. His low percentiles in Miscontrols (26th),
Dispossessed (21st), and Successful Take-On Percentage (23rd) help paint a
clearer picture of someone who’s getting the ball but isn’t always sure how
to be most efficient with it. His finishing also dropped off massively as seen
by his 32nd percentile in Goals - Expected Goals (xG). Considering he
overperformed by 5.9 goals the season prior and underperformed by 0.8 this
year, it is hard to completely gauge his true ability in front of goal.

Winger-
Reiss Nelson
Reiss Nelson is a unique case. Over the past two years, he’s had a handful of
15-20 minute sub appearances where his technical level, physicality, and
decision-making are on par with Arsenal’s elite forwards. Yet, any time he’s
been given a start, he’s looked largely like the fringe squad player he is on
the depth chart.
When Nelson has looked at his best, his decision-making is quick and
efficient. Like Saka, many of his best moments come from taking what the
opposition gives him and making the right play. He’s not overly risky as a
winger, as his Take-On percentiles to the left indicate, but he makes up for it
with high-efficiency decision-making, as shown by his Pass Completion
Percentage percentile (99th). From a purely technical sense, he is one of
Arsenal’s most skilled players, and he uses that along with his physical
frame to retain the ball very well.
His work defensively also deserves to be commended. Understanding that
tracking back is a non-negotiable for Arteta’s wingers, his Possession-
Adjusted (Padj.) Recoveries (91st) and Padj. Tackles Won (92nd) highlight
how much he has bought into Arteta’s system, even if it rarely involves him.
My input: Up to this point, Nelson has shown he’s happy to stick around and
play a squad role for the team. Even though his contract was up last year
and he had offers for more minutes at solid teams, he still chose to extend
with Arsenal (there was a decent wage increase included). Now with his
value protected, he represents pure profit potential as an academy product.
He shouldn’t be ‘forced’ out, but any offer over €15 million should be
accepted and reinvested into a winger that Arteta is more willing to trust.

Forward-
Eddie Nketiah
It's not for lack of trying, but Eddie Nketiah’s place in this Arsenal squad has
all but vanished. He’s a talented number 9 with room to grow, but his skill
set is largely that of a more traditional forward, creating a clunky fit when
he’s inserted into the starting XI.
Out of all of Arsenal’s #9 options, he is the least comfortable taking up the
false 9 positions Arteta’s system asks them to. His discrepancy between his
percentiles for Total Touches (47th) vs. Touches in the Box (91st) really helps
visualize how much of his involvement only comes with the final actions.
The primary issue, though, is the fact that he does not make up for this by
being a low-touch, high-efficiency player.
His Miscontrols (20th) and Successful Take-On% (5th) percentiles, along
with his generally weak creation percentiles, match what the eye test tells
us. He’s not particularly useful unless he’s shooting towards goal. Even
then, his npxG/Shot percentile (14th) and Goals/Shot percentile (47th) show
that he is not making up for his one-dimensionality by being an elite
poacher. At this stage of his career, he’s a low-touch, inconsistent-efficiency
player, which probably hinders Arsenal more than it helps them.
My Input: Nketiah has given Arsenal some great moments and will always
have a spot in the club’s heart as an academy graduate. For both the club's
sake and his, he should be sold this summer. He’d fit much better into
plenty of PL sides than at Arsenal, and they stand to gain a good amount for
a homegrown #9 with England caps. €30 million should be the minimum
Arsenal demand for him, and they could get more if a bidding war develops.

My Input: The main focus should be on getting him back to 100%. There are too
many games to go around, and he’s far too versatile to seriously entertain the
notion of selling him. They may not need him included anymore to turn in elite
performances, but a fully healthy Jesus provides Arsenal a weapon that no one
else in the squad can fully replicate.
Forward-
Gabriel Jesus
Like Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus joined Arsenal from Manchester City two summers
ago. He was extremely integral in the 22/23 season, suffered injuries, and then
spent much of the 23/24 season watching Arsenal’s best performances come
without him in the lineup. Now, even healthy, his place in Arsenal’s starting XI is
nowhere near as secure as it once was.
His radar, in my opinion, does a great job of illustrating the type of player he is. A
forward who is borderline elite at every single aspect of the game, except the one
part of the game that is the most important for forwards to excel at: finishing.
He’s not just a good or average finisher; his Shots percentile (82nd) being so high
while his xG (46th), SoT% (35th), and npxG/Shot (44th) percentiles lag so far
behind indicate that he’s frequently shooting low-quality shots. His Goals - xG
(43rd) percentile shows he’s not skilled enough at turning low-quality shots into
goals to justify the number he takes. The eye test also helps you see his weak ball
striking and lack of confidence in front of goal. He’s not an average finisher; he is
an outright bad one.
With that now out of the way, let's give him the credit he deserves. Even while
still dealing with the effects of his knee injury picked up at the 2022 WC, he
generates danger like no other in this team. His dribbling ability on the ball is
world-class, as emphasized by his carry and take-on percentiles, and he almost
always makes the right reads in terms of when to release teammates with a pass.
He’s relentless in the press and intelligent with his defensive work to the point
that Arteta now feels comfortable deploying him on the wings when needed.

Returning Loanees

My input: It’s ironic considering that had he stayed this year, he might have
actually featured a good bit given Arsenal’s injury crisis at left-back. He might
have even been called upon against Bayern to match up with Sané instead of
Kiwior. Who knows and I guess who cares. He has two years left on his
contract, so if they are going to get any sort of a fee for him, it has to be now.
don’t think they should, or will, be stingy about the fee if an offer comes in.
Left Back-
Kieran Tierney
It will always be considered a disappointment that Kieran Tierney didn’t work
out at Arsenal. A great person and player, injuries and Arsenal’s tactical shift
to inverting their left-back have pretty much ended Tierney’s time as a
member of the squad. He spent this season at Real Sociedad and had an upand-down
year littered with spells on the sideline through injury. From a
strictly financial perspective, it was not good in the sense of bumping up his
value.
Tierney is of the mold of a traditional left-back. He flies up and down the
wings, sending in fizzed crosses over and over again for his teammates to
attack. He’s not only got a lovely whipped ball on him, but his ball striking also
netted him a couple of lovely goals while at Arsenal. Technically, he is not the
most secure, and his passes are more from the mold of the traditional leftback
“high risk-high reward” archetype rather than the more methodical and
patient ones Arteta asks of his full-backs.
Defensively, he is consistently good—great at times even—but consistently
good. It is quite unfortunate that in his only real minutes for Arsenal this
season in the Community Shield, he was made to look quite silly by Cole
Palmer. That seemingly left a bitter taste in a lot of fans' mouths that I didn’t
feel was fully deserved.

Left Back- Nuno Tavares
There’s honestly not a lot to say about Nuno Tavares at this point. At around
£10 million, he was a low-risk, high-reward investment that very much
missed. He still has flashes here and there of a more technical, athletic
version of Tierney that could even potentially operate at left wing, but the
image is more flattering than reality at this point. He spent the year on loan
at Nottingham Forest but only featured in 12 games.
Tavares is rapid and can have moments on the ball where he controls it well
enough to use his athleticism to leave his opponents in the dust. Again,
though, those moments are too far apart, sandwiched between many
moments where he loses the ball trying to make something out of nothing.
His decision-making is questionable most of the time, especially in the final
third, as evidenced by his extremely high shots percentile without any of
the more important ones like goals or even xG anywhere near it. He takes a
lot of shots for someone who rarely puts them on target, let alone in the
back of the net.
His defending one-on-one is quite good, and as an attack-minded player
himself, he often anticipates what his opponent wants to do. His tackles in
the 62nd percentile show he’s not afraid to engage the opponent, and his
blocks and clearances percentiles do well to show how he consistently puts
his body on the line. While having a good defensive foundation, he is prone
to far too many lapses of concentration that young players struggle with.
What’s more concerning is the fact they haven’t shown any real sign of
slowing down.
My input: He has one year left on his contract, and I’m not necessarily sure
there will be many, if any, offers coming in. The £10 million is a loss, but not
a devastating one. I wish him the best wherever he ends up.

My input: We will get into it further later, but Arsenal is sort of crying out for a
midfielder who fits Sambi’s profile. I’m not sure if he’s actually the guy, but I
would like to at least give him a shot in preseason to prove himself. I hope Arteta
agrees.
Center Midfield-
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Lokonga is certainly the most interesting of the three senior team players loaned
out, and therefore he’s the only one that got a manually built radar (and smaller
font, sorry). It is certainly a bit cherry-picked, but it’s to try and help us see what
Arteta and Edu initially pictured Lokonga’s role in this team as. He spent the
season at Luton and usually sat as the deeper center midfielder in manager Rob
Edwards’s 3-4-2-1. His pairing with Ross Barkley in the midfield brought Luton
some of their best performances, even if they often squandered three, or even
one point, which could have been crucial in helping them stay up.
Lokonga has a little bit of everything to his game. He reads the game extremely
well when it is played mostly in front of him and he can pick out his passes, but
he’s also a capable carrier who is not afraid to take on his man when he spots an
opening. His percentiles for Miscontrols (80th) and Fouls Drawn (85th) help
illustrate just how glued to his foot the ball is when he wants it to be. His long
passing ability, both in the air and on the ground, was crucial to Luton’s
approach of feeding their physical strikers balls in dangerous positions they
could chase.
His positioning defensively is what leaves the most to be desired. When he
featured as a lone 6 for Arsenal in 22/23, it was largely a disaster due to said
positional issues. That being said, I do wonder what a year under a team that
largely had to sit back for long stretches at a time and was coached by someone
as bright as Edwards might have done for Sambi’s understanding of out-ofpossession
principles. Four pretty relevant defensive stats above the 90th
percentile pique my interest in just how large strides he made.

Transfer Targets - The Formula
Before getting into the targets themselves, I want to explain the model I will use to help us find players. I want to give
immense credit to Sam Gustafson, who built the initial version of this model that inspired mine. I’m unsure if the
hyperlink to the Medium article will work once published on this platform, so I will leave a link to it in the description just
in case. Some of the stats, roles, and teams we used differed, but all the credit for the initial logic to set something like this
up goes to him. If you want to read through his whole article, you absolutely should, but here is a summarized version of
how it works.
-Each unique position group has multiple sub-roles that are unique for each position group (besides left and right back).
Each player in that position group then has their scores for each role calculated based on manually selected and
engineered stats.
-Each team then has scores calculated to reflect different team styles of play. These scores are also determined by
manually selected and engineered stats. Each team is then given a “similarity score” to every other team involved in the
calculations using the Euclidean Distance Formula. The similarity scores are on a scale of 0-100, with a higher score
indicating more similarity between the two teams.
-Using all of this data, a shortlist can then be generated when the function is given a specific team, position, role, and age
group. After establishing the positions and roles needed by Arsenal, I will show examples of these shortlists before
narrowing down the specific targets that I think are the best fit for Arsenal as well as discussing how viable of options
they are.

Transfer Targets - The Money
David Raya’s £30 million buy option has already, expectedly, been triggered. Arsenal no doubt factored this
into their financial planning for this summer. What could change their plans is how much they can recoup in
fees. Due to Arsenal’s generally poor selling ability in previous years, I have provided generally lower estimates
of suspected fees. That, of course, does not rule out the possibility of selling well and getting higher fees. With
that said, here are the players I expect to leave and the fees Arsenal could get from them:
Players with asterisks represent potential pure profit sales due to being from Arsenal’s academy. Eddie
Nketiah* (£30 million), Aaron Ramsdale (£25 million), Emile Smith Rowe* (£25 million), Reiss Nelson* (£12
million), Thomas Partey (£8 million), Kieran Tierney (£5 million), Nuno Tavares (£2 million), and Mika Biereth
(£5 million). Again, these prices are very rough estimates, and outside of Nketiah and Partey, there’s a decent
chance some of the players will still be on Arsenal’s payroll next season. If those sales went through, it would
total around (£110 million) in outgoings.
Based on various reports and looking at their numbers on Capology, I expect Arsenal to spend around (£120
million) or so before sales, with that number potentially raising to (£160 million). Even if they maximize sales, I
don’t expect Arsenal to reinvest all of it to maintain PSR (Profit Sustainability Rules) flexibility for future years.

Transfer Targets - The Needs
After reviewing everything, these are the positions I believe Arsenal
should be prioritizing with their transfer strategy.
Right Footed Ball Playing Center Back - A true backup for Saliba that does not require shifting White over. Ideally, someone
comfortable playing a squad role unless injuries occur. It would be a massive benefit, and worth spending more, if they are
capable of filling in at right back as well. Spend Range: £20 million - £55 million.
DLP-6/8 Hybrid - A regista-type midfielder who is comfortable being a high-touch player and can dictate play in possession.
Ideally, the player is most dangerous as a passer and can play as the deeper one in a midfield two with Declan Rice. A big
bonus if they can play both the 6 and 8 roles to the point they can seamlessly interchange with Rice. Spend Range: £35
million - £65 million.
Dynamic Right Sided Wide Player - A regista-type midfielder who is comfortable being a high-touch player and can dictate
play in possession. Ideally, the player is most dangerous as a passer and can play as the deeper one in a midfield two with
Declan Rice. A big bonus if they can play both the 6 and 8 roles to the point they can seamlessly interchange with Rice. Spend
Range: £35 million - £65 million.
Potential World Class Poacher - A regista-type midfielder who is comfortable being a high-touch player and can dictate play
in possession. Ideally, the player is most dangerous as a passer and can play as the deeper one in a midfield two with Declan
Rice. A big bonus if they can play both the 6 and 8 roles to the point they can seamlessly interchange with Rice. Spend Range:
£35 million - £65 million.

Transfer Targets
Shortlist Return:
Day 1 ready Central
Midfielder. Solid DLP
potential, 6/8 hybrid.
Spend Range: £35 million - £80 million.

Manuel Locatelli
Short List Rank: 3
Age: 26
Club: Juventus
Est. Market Value:
€28.00m (tmarkt)
Foot: Right
Nationality: Italian
Contract Expires: 30/06/28
Wages: € 117,500k p/w
(capology)
Comfortable playing as both a 6 or an 8, phenomenal reading of the
game at both positions
If he was to come, he would immediately become the best medium
and long range passer in the midfield
Capable defensively and no problems asserting himself physically.
Especially strong in aerial duels.
Previously denied Arsenal in 2021
Does not have much of an end product. Does the majority of his work between
the boxes rather than inside of them
Not a strong carrier of the ball and occasionally prone to clunky touches under
pressure that lead to turnover
Thoughts
A lot has changed since Arsenal last seriously pursued Locatelli.
They are now a much stronger team both domestically and in
Europe than Juventus, and Juventus was charged with financial
breaches last year. His game blends very well with Rice’s, and he
is about to enter his prime years. I expect Arsenal to look into him
again if they haven’t already, and there’s a good chance they can
get him at a solid price. At €40.00m or less, he is my first choice.

Maxence Caqueret
Short List Rank: 1
Age: 21
Club: Lyon
Est. Market Value:
€20.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: French
Contract Expires: 30/06/27
Wages: € 64,615k p/w
Comfortable with both feet, especially dangerous with curled balls into the box
from both half spaces
Good timed arrivals into the box and strong technique makes him a goalscoring
threat when given ample time to shoot.
Uses his low center of gravity extremely well to manuever around or
harmlessly bounce off defenders when carrying. Uses it as well to turn
defenders when receiving facing his goal extremely well
At 170m, he is not much bigger than Fabio Vieira. A transition to the PL,
arguably the most physical in the world would most likely come with
opponents looking to target his lack of pure physicality in the midfield
Came through Lyon’s academey, it is unlikely he is looking to leave just yet
A risk taker who can occasionally get caught out in positions that leave his
team extremely exposed.
Thoughts
Caqueret, from a purely technical standpoint, offers a lot of what Arsenal
are looking for. Even with his lack of height, I believe he is skilled and
smart enough to make a move to a physical league like the Premier
League. At his market value, I would absolutely take him, but as I said, I
don’t think he is itching to leave, and I am certain Lyon doesn’t want
him to leave. That will hike up the price, so anything more than €35
million and I’d go in another direction.

Bruno Guimarães
Short List Rank: 6
Age: 26
Club: Newcastle
Est. Market Value:
€85.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: Brazillian
Contract Expires: 30/06/28
Wages: € 232,397k p/w
Shown he can perform to a high level against Premier League opposition
Extremely capable of being a 6/8 hybrid like Arsenal are looking for
Extremely well rounded, a good carrier and passer while still being extremely
active defensively. Uses his physical traits immensely, much like Rice.
Newcastle do not want to sell at all. There is a €100.00m valid until he end of
June but Arsenal is probably not looking to spend €100.00m+ on a midfielder
two summers in a row.
His aggressiveness is an asset most of the time, but mistimed tackle or
interception attempts leave his backline extremely exposed
His low pass completion and Dispossessed percentile shows how his current
style of play on ball is a lot less patient than Arsenal’s other midfielders. Would
need some time to learn the system.
Thoughts
From a strictly sporting sense, Guimarães is probably the best option due
to his versatility, age, and Premier League-proven experience. The
financials of the deal complicate it heavily, though, and there are even
rumors he’s already been in talks with Manchester City. There is a good
chance Newcastle holds onto him for this next season, but Arsenal should
still do their due diligence on his transfer status. If a deal for €75.00m or
less is possible, I would highly encourage them to go for it.

Transfer Targets
Shortlist Return:
Right Footed Ball Playing
Center Back. Comfortable
as back-up in short term.
Spend Range: £30 million - £55 million.

Zeno Debast
Short List Rank: 4
Age: 20
Club: Anderlecht
Est. Market Value:
€18.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: Belgian
Contract Expires: 30/06/25
Wages: € 13,985k p/w
(SalarySport)
Looks to play switches when the opportunity presents itself. More
comfortable playing them than any of Arsenal’s current CBs (if Ben
White is permanently at RB).
Already 62 starts in the past 2 years as an 18-19 year old for
Anderlecht. Good top-flight experience for someone his age
Like Saliba, has carrying skills that have still not been fully taken
advantage of.
Still needs to adapt physically more and get better at using his size.
Struggles in both aerial duels and losing challenges he shouldn’t at times
Low pass completion percentile shows the risk he likes to take passing.
Finding the proper balance might require a bit of trial and error for him.
Thoughts
Debast is my favorite and most realistic of my three options. His
contract expires next year, and I haven’t seen anything about a
renewal yet. He is still a work in progress, and there are probably
more ready backups out there, but he fits the age and technical
profile of the squad brilliantly. If he would be willing to deputize
Saliba, Arsenal would have a solid immediate backup who has the
potential to be one of the elite ball-playing center-backs in the world.
I would be willing to go up to €27-€30 million for him.

Ousmane Diomande
Short List Rank: 5
Age: 20
Club: Sporting CP
Est. Market Value:
€40.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: Ivorian
Contract Expires: 30/06/27
Wages: € 11,154 p/w
Strictly on the ball, Diomande is one of the best center backs under 21.
Strong as both a carrier and passer, with ample room still to grow for both
In his first full season in Sporting starting XI, he was handed lots of
responsibility in first and second phase build up. Big key to their title
winning season.
Not as likely to go into an aieral duel, but wins those he does at a great rate.
Still figuring how to read the game from a risk-assessment perspective
fully, occasionally creates moments of danger for his team out of
nothing
Could argue the best thing for his development is more raw minutes at
this point than being an understudy
Thoughts
Silva is one of the premier young center-backs in the world, and it
would take a lot of work to convince him to come here and get starts
only situationally or when Saliba is hurt. At the same time, he would be
coming to the best defensive team in the world, whose style is built for
players like him. I would put this one as a longshot compared to the
other two, but I would be overjoyed if Arsenal got him for just about
any price under €55 million.

Antonio Silva
Short List Rank: 1
Age: 20
Club: Benfica
Est. Market Value:
€45.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: Portuguese
Contract Expires: 30/06/27
Wages: € 30,000 p/w
Capable on the ball in a variety of ways, able to break lines through both
short and long passes
Like Debast, has 59 starts over the past 2 years at 18-19 years old. Carries
himself as a CB in the prime of their career rather than 20 years old.
Defensively the most developed of the 3 options. Able to play in a high line
with a turned up press, or sit in a block and defend their box.
Probably on track for a move to an elite club as a day 1 starter in a year or
two. Unsure if he’d be open to a more immediate back up role after 2 years of
starting nearly every game
Needs a bit more work positionally. Athleticism and skill make up for it a lot
of the time, but stronger opposition will look to target punish that.
Thoughts
Silva is one of the premier young Center Backs in the world and it would
take a lot of work to convince him to come here and get starts only
situationally or when Saliba is hurt. At the same time he would be
coming to the best defensive team in the world who style is built for
players like him. I would put this one as a longshot, but compared to the
other two, but I would be overjoyed if Arsenal got him for just about any
price under €55.00m. I would bet a lot of money he ends up going for a
fair bit more though.

Transfer Targets
Shortlist Return:
Right Winger. Capable of
being deployed on both
sides if needed. Provides
something at least slightly
different from Arsenal’s
current crop of wingers.
Spend Range: £20 million - £50 million.

Rayan Cherki
Short List Rank: 7
Age: 20
Club: Lyon
Est. Market Value:
€25.00m
Foot: Both
Nationality: Algerian/French
Contract Expires: 30/06/25
Wages: € 69,231p/w
(SalarySport)
Technically proficient and intelligent to be deployed in the midfield, out
wide, or even occasionally as a center forward for Lyon. Also completely
ambipedal.
Just as dangerous a passer as he is a carrier, disguises his intentions in the
flow of play very well to keep the defender guessing for as long as possible
At 20, he already has 5 full seasons played for Lyon with 116 matches
played. Probably the best blend of youth and experience around
Only 6 total goals across those 5 years, his Goals - xG percentile shows his
lack of quality as a finisher.
Like Caqueret, am unsure how willing he is to leave his boyhood club at this
moment in time. Lyon’s mid season turn around really helped them avoid
having to host a fire sale.
Thoughts
Cherki is one of my favorite options from a footballing perspective. The
fact he is unpredictable due to his proficiency as both a carrier and passer,
along with his comfort using both feet, feels like exactly the type of “X
Factor” Arsenal could be looking for with this purchase. Still, as I
highlighted earlier, I am extremely skeptical about how willing he or Lyon
are to put a transfer through this summer. That being said, his versatility,
talent, and age mean that I would consider any price under €40.00m a
good deal.

Andreas Skov Olsen
Short List Rank: 6
Age: 24
Club: Club Brugge
Est. Market Value:
€18.00m
Foot: Left
Nationality: Danish
Contract Expires: 30/06/26
Wages: € 25,987p/w
(SalarySport)
Entering the prime of his career, he has shown immense talent
carrying the ball forward on the right hand side similar to Saka .
His high xG, Shots, and Goals - xG percentiles highlight how he is not
only consistent getting in good positions and shooting, but he’s
finishing at a very high level too.
No aversion to using both feet make him unpredictable and hard to
stop in the final third
Unsure of the ‘game-breaking’ qualities he has that Arsenal are looking for
in a forward. Would be a good fit but with limited upside.
Has overperformed his xG his 3 years in Belgium, but underperformed his 3
previous years in Italy. Remains to be seen whether the improvement has
come with age or just due to a weaker league overall.
Thoughts
The Belgian Pro League is a hub for young talent to come and refine their
craft more freely before moving to a big European team. Even if it was as
more of a rotation option, a move to a team like Arsenal is something that I
believe would be quite appealing to him. There are probably more exciting
options on their list, but Olsen at €20 million or less would represent a costefficient
and safe deal to find a serviceable backup for Saka.

Marcus Edwards
Short List Rank: 16
Age: 25
Club: Sporting
Est. Market Value:
€20.00m
Foot: Left
Nationality: English
Contract Expires: 30/06/26
Wages: € 26,538p/w
One of the few English players at a high level abroad, Edwards is 25
and ready to take a step up if he would like .
Edwards combination of burst, technical skill, and physicality
make him a nightmare for any opposing full back to deal with.
Capable of being extremely direct when needed, being able to
create chances for himself or for others. Something Arsenal could
use amongst their wingers.
Slightly underperformed his xG as seen by his Goals - xG percentile, but has
overperformed in 4 of the past 5 years.
Arsenal’s wingers are asked to retain the ball and pick their moments of
when to push forward. Ingraining Arsenal’s principles into him might take a
while, and also limit some of what makes him so dangerous.
Thoughts
Considering he’s an English, left-footed right winger, I’m surprised he hasn’t
been linked with more teams. Even though he spent time in Tottenham’s
youth system, I believe the pull of returning to his place of birth to get
minutes for an elite European team would be too much for him to deny. At
25, he represents a good age for a player with needed experience, but still
able to give you 3-4 of his prime years. His contract is up in two years, so
this probably represents the best time for Sporting to get a good return on
him. I’d support anything under €27.00m.

Transfer Targets
Shortlist Return:
Potential World Class
Poacher. Forward with the
physical, technical, and
mental traits to potentially
become one of the biggest
box threats in world football.
Spend Range: £50 million - £100 million.

Benjamin Sesko
Short List Rank: 20
Age: 21
Club: RB Leipzig
Est. Market Value:
€50.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: Slovenian
Contract Expires: 30/06/28
Wages: € 67,308p/w
195cm with a quick burst and no fear in using his frame , the potential in
physicality and athleticism for him is essentially untapped
Vicious ball striking with an ability to score goals from both feet and his head
alike
Become more of a box prescense as the season evolved, learning how to
anticipate where balls into the box are headed, as well as using his massive
frame to position himself in the best spot to receive the incoming balls.
Thoughts
Still raw overall, and would probably need another year or two to become a
game in and game out striker for a team like Arsenal.
A bit more technically limited in other facets of the game compared to
Arsenal’s striker crop. Diversity is a positive, but it limits his effectiveness in
games where he is not scoring.
I’m going to try not to oversell it, but Sesko is quite literally the exact profile
Arsenal is looking for at the striker position. He provides a player with worldclass
potential that they can develop, while still being incredibly useful
situationally in the present. I also think that if he came here, there’s a good
chance he’d hit the ground running with the number of high-quality chances
Arsenal create. His release clause is allegedly around €50.00m, and Arsenal
have reportedly already begun speaking to him. Anywhere around that price,
and I think it’s a great deal for them given how many boxes he ticks. At that
price, I don’t believe there’s a better option for Arsenal’s needs.

Victor Boniface
Short List Rank: 15
Age: 23
Club: Leverkusen
Est. Market Value:
€40.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: Nigerian
Contract Expires: 30/06/28
Wages: € 38,462p/w
Europe’s most prolific goal scorer for the first third of the season. His overall
numbers fell back a bit after a mid-season injury but he still averaged .95 G+A per
game.
Falls into the same category as Sesko when it comes to physical attributes.
Incredibly hard to mark due to that and expresses his physical superiority better
than Sesko does at the moment.
A strong carrier of the ball, not afraid to receive under pressure and try to use his
physicality to get by, or brush off, defenders
Already 2 torn ACLs at ages 21 and 22. Did immensely well to bounce back from
those but a massive question mark from an investment perspective.
Has a bit of a LHS bias as seen on his heat map. Tactical shifts could turn that
into a positive, but for now its another player who takes up a lot of the same
spots as Martinelli, Havertz, and Trossard
Thoughts
Above all else, Boniface would be an extremely fun buy. He’s rapid, a
physical monster, and technically proficient given his size. He also almost
rips the back of the net with half of his goals. I am pretty positive Leverkusen
will look to make a return on either him or fellow striker Patrick Schick, but
probably not both. I wouldn’t put him as the same priority as Šeško, and
those two ACL injuries may ward off a lot of teams, including Arsenal. That
being said, if he stays healthy, I have no doubt he’d contribute right away
with a lot of room still to grow. €40 million is the highest an offer should go.

Alexander Isak
Short List Rank: 10
Age: 24
Club: Newcastle
Est. Market Value:
€75.00m
Foot: Right
Nationality: Sweedish
Contract Expires: 30/06/28
Wages: £ 120,000p/w
Thoughts
Bordering on, if not already world class, and has multiple years of Premier
League experience
Capable running the channels on his own, holding up play, or dropping deep
to help facilitate ball circulation. A true jack of all trades. Technically
incredibly secure.
Supremely confident finisher. Does not like to take a lot of shots he knows
won’t go in. Prioritizes quality over quantity with his shot selection.
Not an aieral prescense, and a bit less physically imposing than Sesko or
Boniface. Has already dealt with 3, at least month long injuries since joining
Newcastle
While he would probably entertain incoming offers, Newcastle will be a lot
less reluctant to. Buying a premier player at the most important position in
the world from a rival is a nightmare set of parameters for a transfer fee
discussion.
Arsenal were in for Isak multiple times throughout his time at Real Sociedad, so
it’s difficult to stomach the possible three-digit price tag Newcastle may put on
him. Still, Arsenal should do their due diligence on him with Newcastle
reportedly having to sell players to meet FFP requirements. If they managed to
get him, they would have one of Europe’s top strikers locked down for the prime
years of his career who will need little time, if any, to properly integrate. He is
the least risky and most ready of the three options, but he’s also naturally the
most expensive. Anything more than €80.00m and I’d think it’s a bit of an
overpay given the options on the market and Arsenal’s immediate needs.

Transfer Targets - Best Of The Res
Here are the 3 next players for each role
that just missed out on my extended
analysis due to differing factors.
Right Footed Ball Playing CB
1. Illia Zabaryni, 21, AFC Bournemouth
2. Kevin Danso, 25, RC Lens
3. Jorne Spileers, 19, Club Brugge
Day 1 Ready 6/8 Hybrid Midfielder
1. Frenkie De Jong, 27, FC Barcelona
2.Douglas Luiz, 26, Aston Villa
3.Youssouf Fofana, 25, AS Monaco
Dynamic Winger With 2 Sided
Potential
1. Nico Williams, 21, Athletic Bilbao
2. Antonio Nusa, 19, Club Brugge
3. Crysencio Summerville, 26, Leeds
United
Potential WC #9, Poacher
1. George Illenikhena, 17, Antwerp
2.Mohamed Amoura, 24, Union S-G
3.Victor Osimhen, 25, Napoli

Transfer Targets - Full Lists Pt. 1
Day 1 Ready 6/8 Hybrid Midfielder
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Manuel Locatelli (Juventus)
Multiple years of top-level experience and versatile in the midfield. Might be tough to pull an Italian from one of Italy’s premier clubs,
but Juve’s financials may allow for a potential sale to materialize.
Maxence Caqueret (Lyon)
Skilled in many of the areas Arsenal are looking to strengthen their midfield in this summer. Lack of physical traits and connection to
Lyon may force the club to look in another direction.
Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle)
Virtually no questions from a sporting perspective. Quickly emerging as one of the best and most versatile midfielders in Europe.
Massive release clause and links already to City mean that the likelihood of this deal, especially this summer, is low.
Frenkie De Jong (Barcelona)
New Barcelona coach Hansi Flick's comments about FDJ make me believe he will not be for sale this summer, even if Barcelona are
perpetually needing sales. Bit of a concern how he would stack up physically against some of the more grueling PL midfields.
Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)
PL proven and can play the 6 and the 8 at a high level. Aston Villa allegedly needs to sell players to meet FFP requirements, but I am
skeptical they will let it be a player as important for them as him as they gear up for a UCL campaign. Also not as high on him to
begin with as others are.
Youssouf Fofana (AS Monaco)
Solid technical level combined with great use of his physical attributes. Less of a ‘conductor’ though like some of the other options
and has also been linked to about half the teams in Europe and Saudi Arabia. Difficult to gauge what is the actual market for him
and what is just chatter. Could see a deal later for him in the summer at a cut price if certain other options fall through.

Transfer Targets - Full Lists Pt. 2
Right Footed Ball Playing Center Back
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Zeno Debast (Anderlecht)
Fits the technical, physical, and age profile Arsenal is looking for with this purchase. Would probably be more willing to be Saliba’s
backup than some of the other options on the list.
Ousmane Diomande (Sporting)
Another player who was linked to Arsenal last summer as well. Allegedly, they have sent scouts to watch him on multiple occasions.
Capable of replicating many of Saliba’s duties in buildup. Would be more reliable than Debast in the short term, but less likely to
agree to a reduced role.
Antonio Silva (Benfica)
Highest long-term potential on the list, but also the most expensive. Not sure whether his role would be worth the demanded fee or if
he would agree to it. Probably off to an elite European club who can offer him a starting spot this summer or next.
Illia Zabaryni (Bournemouth)
At 20, in his first real year of PL experience, he became one of Bournemouth’s most consistent performers once manager Andoni
Iraola’s style of play became properly integrated. Doubt Bournemouth lets him go this summer, but he will begin getting linked to
more top teams sooner or later.
Kevin Danso (Lens)
Allegedly available for below €30.00m. Experience playing as a ‘Central Center Back’ similar to Saliba’s role. Would be a phenomenal
depth choice to have if he was on board with it. The offer of competing for CL and titles might make him more willing to agree to a
reduced role.
Jorne Spileers (Club Brugge)
Still far too raw and not consistent enough defensively for a transfer to really make sense this summer. One to keep an eye on,
though, especially if Arsenal opts not to use this transfer window to address the role.

Transfer Targets - Full Lists Pt. 3
Dynamic Wide Player. Ideally can play both flanks but must be comfortable on the right.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Rayan Cherki (Lyon)
Extremely versatile and still very young with room to grow. Off-field issues and his overall desire to leave Lyon may force Arsenal to
look at other options but from a pure footballing perspective he would be a great buy for the team.
Andreas Skov Olsen (Club Brugge)
Entering his prime years and coming from the Pro League, Skov Olsen could immediately contribute at Arsenal. His long-term
potential may be seen as capped, though, and Arsenal may opt for a wide player with a more clear ‘X Factor’. Left-footed right
wingers will always be in high demand.
Marcus Edwards (Sporting)
Another left-footed right winger with versatility. Would undoubtedly thrive as a sub running at stretched defenses and tired legs. It’s
up to him if that is the path he wants to take entering his prime years.
Nico William (Athletic Bilbao)
One of the most exciting wingers in Europe who is happy to operate on either flank. The combination of pace and dribbling he has is
lacking among the rest of Arsenal’s wingers. Leaving his brother and boyhood club at 20 might be a tough sell. Should be continued
to be monitored, though.
Antonio Nusa (Club Brugge)
The younger and riskier option compared to Skov Olsen, but with a bigger potential reward. Probably needs all the minutes he can
get right now for his development, and the confusion over his knee issue makes him one to watch more than an immediate target.
Crysencio Summerville (Leeds United)
Exciting, dynamic, and direct. Massively increased his end product efficiency this season as well. The market for him is already
forming, and pretty much every team can offer guaranteed minutes more than Arsenal. Would be happy with, but extremely
surprised by, a transfer.

Transfer Targets - Full Lists Pt. 4
Potential World Class Forward/Poacher
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig)
Physically and technically off the charts. Capable of contributing on arrival without feeling the pressure and expectations that come for any
Premier League striker. The exact type of transfer Arsenal has afforded themselves with multiple years of high-level squad building. A release
clause should be the cherry on top.
Victor Boniface (Bayer Leverkusen)
Most electrifying player on this list who seems incredibly low risk from a footballing perspective for just about any team. His two ACL injuries
may really dry up his market, and Leverkusen probably feels like he still has more to give them. Landing on a fee both teams feel is fair might
be more difficult than usual because of those circumstances.
Alexander Isak (Newcastle)
Most proven and arguably the “safest” option on this list. Also arguably the most expensive. The product on the pitch would be the least of
the concerns with him. Agreeing on a suitable transfer fee and his injury history are what may make this deal just a bit too hard for Arsenal.
George Illenikhena (Antwerp)
Only 17 years old, but is quickly becoming one of the premier striker prospects in the world. This year is probably too soon for him and will
probably do more harm than good for his development. Belgium is the perfect place for him right now, but he should be permanently on
Arsenal’s radar.
Mohamed Amoura (Union S-G)
Unsure exactly of how much ‘world-class’ potential he has, but an incredibly well-rounded and lethal striker who is on the cusp of making a
move to the top five leagues. Once again, his experience in the Belgian league should point to a player who will hit the ground running. Not
sure he’s exactly what Arsenal need at this moment, though.
Victor Osimhen (Napoli)
He pretty much had to be included due to the rumors and the idea of what a final form Victor Osimhen would look like, but that is about the
only reason he is on here. Napoli is allegedly asking for over €100.00m, and that is just way too much for a player who is 25 and only has one
league campaign over 15 goals and constantly struggles with injuries. He’s a €60.00m striker being marketed as a €100.00m one.

Conclusion
Thank you to anyone who has made it this far. More than anything else, this was just
a fun project I could do in my free time to practice my coding, data analysis, scouting,
and writing! I’m happy to take any constructive criticism or hear from people who
have different ideas on transfer targets.
Arsenal’s squad building over these past few years has meant that it is quite difficult
to identify where exactly they should be spending their money to upgrade. At the
highest level, the margins of upgrade are razor thin, but they do exist and can be the
difference between a great team and an utterly dominant one. If Arsenal invests
correctly, they could be well on their way to the latter, but they should also be wary of
spending unnecessarily and taking an unintentional step backward.
Please feel free to message me at @NLJac on Twitter/X with any thoughts about the
piece you had!

Sources
Data:
1.FBref.com
2.Capology.com
3.Transfrmartket.us
4.SalarySport.com
5.Sofascore.com
6.Sharemytactics.com
Inspiration:
1.Ethan’s Wolves Recruitment Plan (@DiggoryEthan)
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/68709805/wolverhamptonwanderers-recruitment-plan-summer-2024
2.Sam Gustafson’s Building A Player Identification Tool (@GoalAnalysis)
https://gustasam5.medium.com/building-a-player-identification-toole2faa69728fd