The Softwood Forest Products Buyer - March/April 2024

ONTARIO/QUEBEC TRENDS - Continued from page 26
are going to be good and the lumber mills are going be quite happy at the end of
2024. A lot more happy than they were at the end of last year, that's for sure."
“In the Pine business," noted an Ontario producer, "it's been a quiet winter.
There has been a lot of excess White Pine being sawn, as the hardwood market
is in the tank. A lot of those mills have taken on some White Pine and Red Pine.
Overall, I still think that a lot of the market woes are interest-rate related. It's
finally filtered down and taken hold. But, if the government would drop the rate a
couple of times, it would, put some confidence back out there again."
A Quebec wholesaler figured “with some hardwood mills sawing more Pine,
there's more lumber on the market. There could be more low-end White Pine in
the pipeline this year than in other years. I'm not sure just how that's going to play
out with inventories down the road. In general though, we are thinking with some
optimism that the markets will open up, maybe in the middle of the month, or the
end of March and things will start to get going again."
“In my opinion," according to an Ontario wholesaler, "we need a lot more demand,
like over the COVID years, because during the pandemic was when people
were looking for things to do. We are pretty much at pre-pandemic levels right
now, other than the market slope."
An Ontario producer said, “There's some pushback on some items on the retail
end, price wise. But we're maintaining our prices. We're not dropping ours. We're
not getting any relief at our end, so we're kind of in a bit of a spot anyway. Interest
rates are still the big unknown, holding them steady for longer, or even dropping
them, will make for a more certain environment that will give people some hope."
“I don't know, it could be kind of a funny year perhaps," noted a Quebec
wholesaler. "When we start seeing some interest rate drops happening, people will
get a little more confident about the marketplace. Maybe they'll start doing some
projects and get things back to normal again, but it's been kind of stalled for the
last four months approximately, I'd say. It's not like there's nothing moving. It's
just that you're certainly not moving any volume.
According to a Quebec wholesaler, “The countervailing duties announcement
does impact the Pine market, at least to some respect. There's not a lot of manufacturers
that export to their market. Unless they're a bordering mill, where there
is sometimes a trade-off, they'll exchange logs for finished product. They kind of
get around that. There's really very few up in our region that export to the US.
The duty announcement is kind of a non-issue, that is how I tend to think of it."
“I think things will probably get better in the last two quarters of the year,"
noted a Quebec producer. "Looking ahead, I think we're kind of in a zone right
now where it's wait and see. Things will obviously pick up a little bit as we come
into the spring, but I don't think it's going to be the typical spring that we normally
see. But, I would say that a lot of it has to do with the interest rates out there. If
we can get a couple of rate cuts going, it will change the dynamics for sure."
“The weather has certainly been on people’s minds," said an Ontario mill.
"They are still logging but it's been an unusually warm winter. Usually things are
frozen up pretty good, but there's not a lot of frost in the ground. We are in good
shape and a lot of the guys in our area are still okay. But as of late, maybe this past
week, with the warmer temperatures, the guys will run the roads in the morning,
but then stay off them in the afternoon. They'd be breaking them up."
Noted an Ontario wholesaler, “It's really been mild. We've only had a couple
of cold days all winter, so it's been strange. It hasn't been below minus 10 for
quite some time. The long and the short of it, I think it's probably going to be an
early breakup and those that are logging are going to probably try to wrap things
up a little sooner than later. Usually the half loads come on at the start of March,
so they try to have everything at least to where they don't have to travel half
loads. They forward the material to a point so that at least they can get it out. But
towards the end of February, they're definitely going to be winding it down this
year." •
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