TOM 12 2023

Page 5 ANALYSES December 2023
A look into the future based on inflation
Gfk experts provide consumer forecasts for 2024
Multiple crises and a high
inflation rate have characterized
the year 2023. Many
consumers are unsettled, the
consumer climate is stagnating.
How has this year
changed consumers and their
values? And what will be important
in 2024? Experts from
GfK and NIQ look back and
provide data-based forecasts
for the new year.
The current crises are leading
to a growing need for security.
Women, people on low incomes
and young people in particular
show an above-average
orientation towards security.
„Generation Z and millennials
are unsettled by a variety of
issues, such as terrorism, environmental
pollution, the quality
of education, the impact of disruptive
technologies on society,
recession and unemployment.
As a result, they are probably
looking for stability more than
older people,“ explains Petra
Süptitz, consumer trends expert
at GfK. „This is also reflected
in their purchasing behavior.
Young consumers trust established
brands more often than older
people because they rely on
their proven quality. They will
continue to do so in the coming
year.“
Trend towards
retreating into the
home
Consumption and inflation in the coming year - GfK and NIQ provide
forecasts. Symbolic image: Depositphotos / Igor Vetushko
Older and financially less crisis-proof
people in particular
are retreating into their homes.
This is accompanied by a trend
towards domestic activities such
as cooking and repair work. Social
activities are also shifting to
the home: while 30% of 20 to
29-year-olds had guests at home
at least once a week in 2019,
this figure had risen to 37% by
2023. This is presumably also
due to price increases in the catering
industry and may increase
further with the return of VAT
from January 2024. Already,
43% of Germans are eating out
less often to save money. Climate
change remains the third biggest
concern for Germans. This
means that sustainability will
remain a relevant topic in 2024,
although the latest GfK Sustainability
Index showed that the
willingness to pay for sustainable
purchases has decreased
slightly.
The situation is different for
technical consumer goods,
especially larger household appliances:
Consumers are willing
to pay more for sustainable refrigerators,
washing machines
or dishwashers, as it is not only
the environment that benefits,
but also the consumer. Buyers
pay eleven percent more than
the average for washing machines
with an A energy efficiency
label. At the same time, their
market share is increasing: while
37% of all washing machines
were in energy efficiency class
A in 2022, for example, this figure
had risen to 60% in the first
ten months of 2023. These appliances
are attractive because
they consume less energy and
allow consumers to save money
during operation. Consumers
are also increasingly opting for
durable appliances - as this also
reduces the life cycle costs of
the product. „Consumers want
to make their everyday lives
easier with technical aids. In
a time of many simultaneous
crises, at least the home should
be an uncomplicated, stressfree
retreat,“ says Alexander
Dehmel, expert for technical
consumer goods at GfK. „And
they are willing to pay for it:
52% of Germans say they are
prepared to spend more money
on products that make their lives
easier. This is where growth
opportunities lie for 2024.“ In
the FMCG sector - i.e. food and
drugstore products - consumers
are becoming more price-sensitive.
In 2023, private labels
were on the rise: on the one
hand due to lower prices, on the
other hand the image of private
labels has also changed. According
to NIQ data, many consumers
see private labels as a good
alternative to branded products
(51%) and often consider them
to be of equal or even better
quality (41%). In competition
with stronger private labels,
it is important for traditional
brands to sharpen their unique
selling points and rethink their
value proposition. For example,
a stronger focus on certain
product characteristics such as
effectiveness or sustainability
can help them remain competitive.
„The industry is aware of
the challenge of finding a balance
between price and image.
Our recent NIQ Insider Survey
of industry executives revealed
that in 2024, they believe products
must offer good value for
money and be affordable in order
to be successful,“ explains
Enrico Krien, consumer expert
at NIQ.
Price and promotion management
will play a decisive role
in the coming year, not only for
manufacturers but also for retailers.
In view of limited consumer
budgets, retailers will
have to find the right balance
between attractive prices and
promotions with relevant margins
in order to attract consumers
on the one hand and secure
important margins on the other.
Category management will also
be even more relevant in 2024
in order to identify growth areas
and better exploit them with
products and services relevant
to the respective target group
segments. New product ranges,
products or brands can also secure
important sales. To do this,
retailers must have a precise
understanding of customer preferences
and market conditions.
Relying on gut instinct is no
longer enough in such volatile
times - not least because consumer
segments are becoming
increasingly fragmented. Additional
margins are offered by
the monetization of data and
specific retail media offerings,
which also enable the industry
to address relevant buyer segments
in a targeted and efficient
manner.
Customer
centricity and
customization
„In a digitalized world where
change is the new normal, unconditional
customer centricity
and adaptability are important
keys to success. Retailers who
set up their strategy based on
data and constantly adapt it will
be better positioned to meet the
ever-changing demands of consumers.
This is how retailers ensure
long-term success,“ summarizes
Oliver Schmitz, retail
trends expert at NIQ and GfK.
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