Environmental Internship Program - 2023 Booklet
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OCEANS AND<br />
ATMOSPHERE<br />
Clara Conatser ’25<br />
GEOSCIENCES<br />
Certificates: French Language and Culture, Music<br />
Performance<br />
PROJECT TITLE<br />
Real-time Forecasting<br />
System for Hurricane<br />
Hazards and Risk<br />
ORGANIZATION(S)<br />
Hurricane Hazards and<br />
Risk Analysis Group,<br />
Department of Civil<br />
and <strong>Environmental</strong><br />
Engineering, Princeton<br />
University<br />
LOCATION(S)<br />
Princeton, New Jersey<br />
I studied and compared different methods of<br />
forecasting tropical cyclones. These methods<br />
included simple consensus, which compares<br />
several models that are weighted equally; and<br />
corrected consensus, in which models are<br />
weighted according to how accurately they<br />
predict storms in a training set. My analysis used<br />
a previously published equation to identify the<br />
best predictors of storm track (i.e., geographic<br />
location) and intensity. I also compared the<br />
absolute and relative error for the different<br />
models. Overall, I found that velocity, minimum<br />
pressure, latitude and longitude created the<br />
most accurate model. Through this project, I’ve<br />
become familiar with many ensemble forecasting<br />
methods and gained experience coding in<br />
the program Python. This knowledge will be<br />
invaluable for my junior project, which will focus<br />
on some aspect of tropical cyclone climatology.<br />
MENTOR(S)<br />
Ning Lin,<br />
Professor of Civil and<br />
<strong>Environmental</strong><br />
Engineering; Christine<br />
Blackshaw, Ph.D.<br />
candidate, Civil and<br />
<strong>Environmental</strong><br />
Engineering; Avantika<br />
Gori, Ph.D. candidate,<br />
Civil and <strong>Environmental</strong><br />
Engineering<br />
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