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U.S. ECONOMY HIT BY ROLLING RECESSION<br />
<strong>2023</strong><br />
<strong>Q3</strong><br />
IN REVIEW<br />
What happened to the widely predicted recession that was supposed to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy this year? It happened. Just not all at once.<br />
Different sectors of the economy have experienced downturns at different times. Thanks to this rare case of a “rolling” recession, the U.S. may not experience a<br />
traditional recession at all this year, or next, even with the dual pressures of elevated inflation and high interest rates.<br />
“Mini” recessions have rolled across different industries and sectors<br />
Travel<br />
Travelers through TSA checkpoints (millions)<br />
Oil<br />
WTI crude oil spot price (USD per barrel)<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />
Housing<br />
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price <strong>In</strong>dex<br />
(month-over-month % change)<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
–1<br />
–2<br />
2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />
120<br />
80<br />
40<br />
0<br />
2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />
Semiconductors<br />
Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor <strong>In</strong>dex cumulative return (%)<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />
Sources: Travel: Transportation Security Agency (TSA), U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Data is a 30-day moving average. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Oil: Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Housing: Refinitiv Datastream,<br />
Standard & Poor’s. Latest available monthly data is June <strong>2023</strong>, as of September 5, <strong>2023</strong>. Semiconductors: Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Data represents cumulative price return since January 1,<br />
2019. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.<br />
Sources: © <strong>2023</strong> Capital Travel: Group. Transportation All rights reserved. Security Agency (TSA), U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Data is a 30-day moving average. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Oil: Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Housing:<br />
Refinitiv Datastream, Standard & Poor’s. Latest available monthly data is June <strong>2023</strong>, as of September 5, <strong>2023</strong>. Semiconductors: Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Refinitiv Datastream. As of August 31, <strong>2023</strong>. Data<br />
represents cumulative price return since January 1, 2019. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.<br />
6
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