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ECONOMIC CHARTS & NOTES<br />
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX The overall CPI had it biggest monthly gain<br />
of <strong>2023</strong> due to a surge in gasoline prices. Core inflation, excluding food and<br />
energy, was hotter than expected in August.<br />
CONSUMER SPENDING Consumer purchasing power slipped in <strong>Q3</strong> as wage<br />
growth failed to keep up with inflation. Household spending cooled in August but<br />
remains above 2022 levels.<br />
Y/Y % Chg<br />
8%<br />
7%<br />
6%<br />
5%<br />
4%<br />
3%<br />
2%<br />
1%<br />
0%<br />
CPI Less Food<br />
2018 2019 2020 2021<br />
CPI All<br />
2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />
% Chg Year-over-year<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
-5<br />
-10<br />
-15<br />
-20<br />
-25<br />
Jan '19<br />
Jul '19<br />
Consumption<br />
Jan '20 Jul ' 20 Jan '21<br />
Jul '21<br />
Jan '22<br />
Disposable <strong>In</strong>come<br />
Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23<br />
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
JOB OPENINGS & HIRES Retail hires and job openings were relatively flat<br />
for the period. Some retailers, like Amazon, are ramping holiday season hiring,<br />
while Target and others are being more cautious.<br />
GDP The Fed's GDPNow model estimates the economy grew 4.9% in the third<br />
quarter, amid resilient consumer spending and healthy net export activity.<br />
Retail Openings<br />
Retail Hires<br />
GDP<br />
Amount in Thousands<br />
1500<br />
1200<br />
900<br />
600<br />
300<br />
0<br />
Jan '18<br />
Jul '18<br />
Jan '19<br />
Jul '19<br />
Jan '20<br />
Jul '20<br />
Jan '21<br />
Jul '21<br />
Jan '22<br />
Jul '22<br />
Jan '23<br />
Jul '23<br />
% Growth<br />
35%<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
-5%<br />
-10%<br />
-15%<br />
-20%<br />
-25%<br />
-30%<br />
Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q1 Q4 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2<br />
2018<br />
2019 2020 2021 2022 <strong>2023</strong><br />
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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