International Aquafeed Directory 2023-24

6
FAO GLOBAL FISH ECONOMY FAO
DETERIORATING ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTING
UNCERTAINTIES DAMPEN
POST-PANDEMIC RECOVERY
Global fisheries and aquaculture
production 1 in 2023 is expected to see a
marginal increase compared to 2022
(+0.6 percent), with growth in the
aquaculture sector compensating for a
slight decline in wild catches.
Production from capture fisheries is
expected to decrease slightly by around
1.6 percent in 2023 as bad weather and
lower quotas constrain catches of a
number of key species. Having already
fallen by some 1 million tonnes between
2021 and 2022, anchoveta catches are
expected to decline further in 2023, with
poor catches thus far, and an El Ninõ
weather event anticipated for the second
half of the year.
Aquaculture will continue expanding
to reach 96 million tonnes in 2023, a
2.8 percent increase over 2022, but
marginally lower than the sector’s longterm
growth rate of 3.7 percent between
2015 and 2021. Growth in species, such
as salmon and tilapia, has slowed, while
the production of others, including
pangasius and shrimp, is progressively
expanding. Production costs, especially
for feed, are impacting the profitability of
many farmers.
1
Global fisheries and aquaculture production refers to
aquatic animals, which include fish, crustaceans, molluscs
and other aquatic animals, excluding aquatic mammals,
reptiles, aquatic products (sponges, corals and pearls),
seaweed and other algae.
Prices are high overall, with the FAO
Fish Price Index increasing from 122
points at the beginning of 2023 to 130
points in April, which is close to its
previous historic high in June last year.
The upward price trend is expected to
keep the value of world trade in aquatic
products higher than in previous years.
The price difference between capture and
aquaculture series has widened to 35
points, mostly caused by a strong price
increase for wild species, while the price
growth for aquaculture species has been
more moderate. Certain groundfish and
tuna species have seen record highs.
The global trade in fisheries and
aquaculture products witnessed a period
of high prices and significant growth in
2021 and 2022. However, the strong
recovery in demand that followed the
COVID-19 pandemic has slowed in
2023. Trade volumes will remain stable,
rising by 0.3 percent from 2022. The
value of this trade is set to grow by
1.2 percent to USD 192.4 billion,
considerably less than the 7.7 percent
increase seen last year.
While fears of a recession are easing,
inflation and slow economic growth will
limit the disposable incomes of
consumers, with the impact of reduced
growth in demand for aquatic products
already evident. Along with slowing
consumption growth, there has been an
accelerated reshuffling of products,
particularly favouring lower-cost farmed
fish over increasingly expensive
wild- caught whitefish.
SALMON
Having declined slightly in 2022,
salmon production is expected to
normalise in 2023 with a 4 percent
growth in global farmed supply. The
proposed Norwegian salmon tax led to
severe disruption, and with the terms
not yet finalised, there is still considerable
uncertainty in the industry. Although
investments continue to be made in new
regions, growth in supply is expected to
level off in the coming years.
Prices for farmed Atlantic salmon have
returned to near record levels in the
second quarter of 2023, although
forward prices indicate a potential
softening in the second half of 2023.
Demand has remained remarkably
resilient, with the industry continuing to
be supported by a robust and diversified
set of markets, sales channels and
product ranges. The Norwegian industry
has benefited from a favourable
exchange rate, boosting export values,
which rose by 24 percent despite a 6
percent drop in volume. Concurrently, a
strengthening of the dollar has supported
concerted growth in the US market,
with imports in the first quarter of 2023
up by 53 percent in value terms.
PANGASIUS
Pangasius remains in high demand in
key markets, such as the United States of
America (United States) and China,
Figure 1. FAO Fish Price Index (2014-2016=100)
Source of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index: EUMOFA,
INFOFISH, INFOPESCA, INFOYU, Statistics Norway
Table 1. World fish market at a glance
2021 2022 2023 Change: 2023
estim. fÊcast over 2022
million tonnes (live weight) %
WORLD BALANCE
Production 182.1 184.4 185.5 0.6
Capture fisheries 91.2 91.0 89.5 -1.6
Aquaculture 90.9 93.4 96.0 2.8
Trade value (exports USD billion) 176.6 190.2 192.4 1.2
Trade volume (live weight) 66.8 68.0 68.2 0.3
Total utilisation 182.1 184.4 185.5 0.6
Food 161.2 164.2 166.1 1.2
Feed 16.9 16.1 15.3 -5.0
Other uses 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.0
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
Per caput food consumption:
Food fish (kg/yr) 20.4 20.6 20.6 0.3
From capture fisheries (kg/year) 9.4 9.4 9.2 -1.8
From aquaculture (kg/year) 11.5 11.7 11.9 1.9
FAO FISH PRICE INDEX 2021 2022 2023
(2014-2016=100) Jan-May
Change:
Jan-May 2023
over
Jan-May 2022
%
101.7 120.8 128.1 4.5
Source of the raw data for the FAO Fish price index: EUMOFA, INFOFISH, INFOPESCA,
INFOYU, Statistics Norway. *Jan-Apr 2022 over Jan-Apr 2021, in percent.
INTERNATIONAL AQUAFEED DIRECTORY 2023/24