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charmingly self-deprecating story—Buffett

used to dread public speaking until

he took a Dale Carnegie course—he

told the crowd, in painstaking, brilliantly

analyzed detail, why the techfueled

bull market wouldn’t last. Buffett

had studied the data, noted the danger

signals, and then paused and reflected

on what they meant. It was the first

public forecast he had made in thirty

years.

The audience wasn’t thrilled, according

to Schroeder. Buffett was raining on

their parade. They gave him a standing

ovation, but in private, many dismissed

his ideas. “Good old Warren,” they said.

“Smart man, but this time he missed

the boat.”

Later that evening, the conference

wrapped up with a glorious display of

fireworks. As always, it had been a

blazing success. But the most important

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