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experience in the markets, he should

buy a hundred thousand dollars’ worth

of GM stock, based on reports that the

U.S. government might bail out the

auto industry. He was convinced it was

a no-lose investment.

After his trade went through, the media

reported that the bailout might not

happen after all. The market sold off

GM and the stock price fell. But Alan

imagined the thrill of winning big. It

felt so real he could taste it. He held

firm. The stock fell again, and again,

and kept dropping until finally Alan decided

to sell, at a big loss.

There was worse to come. When the

next news cycle suggested that the bailout

would happen after all, Alan got excited

all over again and invested another

hundred thousand dollars, buying

more stock at the lower price. But the

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