quiet-the-power-of-introverts-in-a-world-that-cant-stop-talking-susan-cain

A well-known study out of UC Berkeley
by organizational behavior professor
Philip Tetlock found that television
pundits—that is, people who earn their
livings by holding forth confidently on
the basis of limited information—make
worse predictions about political and
economic trends than they would by
random chance. And the very worst
prognosticators tend to be the most
famous and the most confident—the
very ones who would be considered
natural leaders in an HBS classroom.
The U.S. Army has a name for a similar
phenomenon: “the Bus to Abilene.”
“Any army officer can tell you what
that means,” Colonel (Ret.) Stephen J.
Gerras, a professor of behavioral sciences
at the U.S. Army War College,
told Yale Alumni Magazine in 2008. “It’s
about a family sitting on a porch in
Texas on a hot summer day, and
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