Retailing in 2010 - World Retail Congress

GfK R&T 

FIO WW dpt 

Retailing in 2010: 

challenges and opportunities in the fashion markets 

GfK 

Q4 2010 

15 tháng mười 2010

GfK R & T 

A new consumer behaviour? 

One thing is certain, “sure fire” solutions are less and less “sure” 

Dec 07 


Oct-10 

All PCs- desktops / mobiles – week on week last year – leader panel-key accounts-consumer channels – 

Europe 6 – volume 

2

Dec 07 

GfK R & T 

Oct-10 

Crisis, yes, but mostly a confidence crisis, which plays more on emotions than 

on spend 

Q4 2010 3 

Indicator Points 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

-20 

-40 

Jan- 

97 

Jun- 

97 

Source: Consumer and Business Survey of the EU-Commission 

Copyright by GfK 

Nov- 

97 

Unemployment expectations over next 12 months 

Major purchases at present 

Major purchases over next 12 months 

Savings at present 

Savings over next 12 months 

Statement on financial situation of household 

Apr- 

98 

Sep- 

98 

Feb- 

99 

Jul- 

99 

Dec- 

99 

May- 

00 

Oct- 

00 

Mrz 

01 

Aug- 

01 

Jan- 

02 

Jun- 

02 

Nov- 

02 

Apr- 

03 

Sep- 

03 

Feb- 

04 

Jul- 

04 

Dec- 

04 

May- 

05 

Oct- 

05 

Mrz 

06 

Aug- 

06 

Jan- 

07 

Jun- 

07 

Nov- 

07 

Apr- 

08 

Sep- 

08 

Feb- 

09 

Jul- 

09 

Dec- 

09 

May- 

10

Q4 Dec 2010 07 

GfK R & T 

Underlying these trends, we believe that Fashion is impacted as much as 

the other markets by a shift in consumer paradigm, which puts the 

emphasis on branding and time management 

POSSESSION 

- STATUS 

Acquisition 

Recognition 

=> 

Experimental consumer expectation model 

Specialists 

ACQUISITION 

- FUNCTION 

Money earned 

Money lent 

=> 

Convergence 

H-Discounters 

Category Killers 

TIME 

- USAGE 

Shopping habits 

Choice preferences 

=> 

Multichanneling 

Branding 

Oct-10 

4

GfK R & T 

The change of paradigm and consumer background is not bad news per se, it 

is simply a shift and one that requires more and more tactical analysis 

Dec 07 


Indexed Euros spent per unit purchased(*), underwear, 2010/2009, panelmarket sales 

(*total value divided by total units) 

Oct-10 

5

GfK R & T 

Markets, even at the highest end a resolutely local, highlighting that, 

contrary to other “global” products, fashion remains primarily a local demand 

Dec 07 


Watches Market trends in value 2009/2008, Retail sales to the consumer, Total watches Market 

Oct-10 

Watches Market trends in value 2009/2008, Retail sales to the consumer, watches > 

3000 USD Market 

6

GfK R & T 

Opportunities are all in deep tactical understanding of the markets 

structures and evolutions 

Dec 07 


UK watches panelmarket trends in value 

Oct-10 

UK watches panelmarket trends in units 

7

GfK R & T 

Opportunities in Fashion by Maximising your assets 

Dec 07 


� Channel structure and positioning 

� Optimising the product deployment 

Oct-10 

8

Dec 07 


GfK R & T 

� Trends in mass merchandiser 

� European structures of the clothing markets 

� Sales season for underwear 

� Underwear priceclasses 

� Underwear styles : Trend analyses 

Oct-10 

9


GfK R & T 

FashionWorld 

Sales Value +/- % PY 

January 2010 - August 2010 

Total 

Germany France Italy Spain 

1,9 

Trends of Leg-/Outer-/Underwear in Mass Merchandiser 

5,6 

Spain has faced difficult times in 2010 

Outerwear balances the markets in DE/FR/IT 

7,8 

-6,4 

Underwear 

Outerwear Legwear 

Oct-10 

Germany Germany France France Italy Italy Spain 

Spain 

© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com PRJ 82837 - RG 1910058 - RP 8959977 - ID 253548239 

7,3 

4,1 

-7,1 

0,1 

14,5 

-2,5 

16,3 

-4,7 

6,4 

-10,0 

-5,3 

-6,5 

10

2009 - AUG10 


GfK R & T 


Sales Value % 

Mass Merchandisers 

Germany 

2009 JAN10-MAR10 APR10-JUN10 AUG10 

10 

4 

14 

7 

23 

9 

11 

22 

12 

5 

13 

8 

22 

8 

12 

19 

7 

6 

15 

8 

24 

10 

11 

20 

8 

6 

15 

7 

22 

9 

13 

20 

Sales structures are very local 

JACKETS/COATS 

JEANS 

SHOES 

SOCKS/STOCKINGS 

TOPS 

TROUSERS 

UNDERWEAR 

Others 

Oct-10 

France Spain Italy 

2009 JAN10-MAR10 JAN10-MAR10 APR10-JUN10 APR10-JUN10 AUG10 


5 

7 

34 

3 

15 12 

21 

12 14 

7 

16 

19 

18 

6 

8 

11 

23 

20 11 

22 

19 

22 

6 

11 

54 

4 

13 

21 

13 

7 

17 

18 

7 

9 

18 

23 

12 

22 

16 18 

3 

2 

3 

16 18 

22 

10 11 

6 

17 

16 18 

10 

9 

13 

22 16 

11 

21 

24 25 

2 

53 

2 

3 

4 

17 

16 23 

9 

7 

5 

16 17 

18 

78 

12 

25 23 

14 

20 21 

11

GfK R & T 


Sales Value % 

2009 - AUG10 

Dec 07 


Legwear 

Outerwear 

Underwear 

Germany 

MASS even have a higher share for Underwear than 

the specialists 

Oct-10 


12

Dec 07 


GfK R & T 

UNDERWEAR in Mass Merchandisers 

The consumer waits for the Sales period 

Oct-10 

13


GfK R & T 


Sales Value 

JAN10-AUG10 

5.99 9.89 14.04 21.94 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

9 

22 

15 

25 

29 

UNDERWEAR in Mass Merchandisers 

Germany 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

11 

18 

20 

19 

32 

Top Priceclasses are more relevant in Germany 

JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

-28% 

-33% 

-1% 

5% 

21% 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

17 

20 

24 

23 

15 

France 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

16 

23 

24 

22 

15 

JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

-13% 

-5% 

-5% 

-8% 

Oct-10 


8% 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

26 

15 

12 

26 

21 

Great Britain 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

22 

20 

12 

20 

26 

JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

34% 

>100% 

47% 

18% 

98% 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

28 

33 

24 

11 

4 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

25 

31 

26 

14 

4 


JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

-10% 

-15% 

-15% 

1% 

20% 

14


GfK R & T 


Sales Value 

JAN10-AUG10 

3.11 4.53 5.99 7.94 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

24 

18 

20 

13 

25 

LEGWEAR in Mass Merchandisers 

Germany 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

26 

16 

19 

12 

28 

JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

-6% 

-1% 

16% 

6% 

25% 

Consumer go for different pricelevels 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

23 

25 

24 

17 

11 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

France 

20 

24 

24 

19 

13 

JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

-8% 

Oct-10 


8% 

4% 

12% 

17% 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

20 

31 

27 

6 

15 

Great Britain 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

18 

29 

21 

15 

18 

JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

-11% 

4% 

9% 

>100% 

40% 

JAN09- 

AUG09 

31 

24 

27 

12 

7 

JAN10- 

AUG10 

31 

23 

30 

11 

5 


JAN09-AUG09 : 

JAN10-AUG10 

-10% 

-12% 

-17% 

-37% 

1% 

15


GfK R & T 

Sun Glasses 

Sales Value 

JAN10-AUG10 

89.99 112.69 133.99 174.10 

OPTICIANS 

JAN09- JAN10- JAN09-AUG09 : 

AUG09 AUG10 JAN10-AUG10 

40 

14 

12 

15 

19 

Germany France Great Britain Spain Italy 

34 

12 

14 

18 

22 

-1% 

1% 

29% 

43% 

35% 

In France the consumer spends more for 

fashionable sunglasses 



21 

13 

17 

20 

30 

18 

12 

18 

22 

30 

-10% 

-1% 

5% 

10% 

12% 





Oct-10 




21 

21 

17 

16 

25 

20 

17 

22 

17 

24 

-3% 

31% 

18% 

62% 

17% 

25 

22 

21 

16 

15 

27 

25 

20 

15 

12 

-16% 

-13% 

-25% 

-29% 

-37% 

10 

24 

28 

16 

22 

12 

27 

21 

22 

18 

-31% 

-31% 

1% 

18% 

11% 

16


GfK R & T 


Sales Value % 

2009 - AUG10 

BODY 

CORSETRY 

PANTS 

UNDERSHIRT 

Others 

Underwear Germany 

Styles are promoting different product mix 

Modern= Esprit, Skiny, S.Oliver, Mey Classic= Triumph, Chantelle, Felina, Susa Standard= Schiesser, Speidel, Dorina, Gebr. 2 Conzelmann 

Oct-10 


17

Dec 07 


GfK R & T 

Tightly managing the product range, more than ever 

Lingerie / France 

Oct-10 

18

Dec 07 


GfK R & T 

French Lingerie market in figures 

93€ 

Every 

woman 

spent 2009 

for lingerie 

2,5 

National 

market 

weight in 

bns € 

500 M€ 

LINGERIE in 

HM 

110 

Number of 

national 

brands 

selling 

Oct-10 

19

GfK R & T 

Seasonality pics : lingerie is definitively not a gift 

Dec 07 


France Hypermarkets/Supermarkets units 

Oct-10 

20

Dec 07 


GfK R & T 

Corsetry brands and tradebrands compete on the same shelves 

Value share tradebrands / brands 

Oct-10 

43.3 45.7 47.6 42.7 43.8 

July 2009 - 

September 2009 

October 2009 - 

December 2009 

January 2010 - 

March 2010 

April 2010 - June 

2010 

July 2010 - 

September 2010 

21

GfK R & T 

But Brands vs trade brands don’t compete on the same price bands 

Every 5 € price brackets 0-30€ brands vs TB 

Dec 07 


Oct-10 

22

Dec 07 


GfK R & T 

Differentiation through form 

FULL CUP; 64 

Bandeau; 

1 

; 

moulded; 

11 

balconnet; 

6 

Push-up ; 

10 

Oct-10 

triangle; 

1 

23

GfK R & T 

How do brands differentiate ? Through diversification 

Dec 07 


Oct-10 

24

GfK Retail and GfK Technology R & T 

Oct-10 4/2010 

Dec 07 


Product life cycle : 6 months after its birth, a new season is 50% of 

the turnover 

50 

50 

25 

AW 10

Dec 07 


GfK R & T 

Exemple of a succesfull long-lasting collection : large offer, high 

demand, 

7 

6 

5 

4 

3 

2 

1 

- 

W23 10 

W24 10 

W25 10 

W26 10 

W27 10 

W28 10 

W29 10 

W30 10 

W31 10 

W32 10 

W33 10 

W34 10 

W35 10 

SHARE VALUE ADJUSTED DEMAND 

W36 10 

W37 10 

Oct-10 

W38 10 

26

GfK R & T 

This tactical marketing of product niches comes alongside more and more 

tactical timing in Fashion, beyond the known collections and season releases 

Dec 07 


and value week vs previous week 

16 

32.1 

24.2 

23 

25.6 

18 18 

27.4 

20.7 

33.3 

3.4 

14.7 

Week 47 Week 48 Week 49 Week 50 Week 51 Week 52 

Oct-10 

UK, watches, trends in units Month vs Month last year, 

Men's 

Ladies 

27

Dec 07 


5 

13.4 

GfK R & T 

24 

22.7 

28 

26.5 

15 

20.4 

26.7 

23.7 

19.8 

18.2 


10 

19.9 

31.7 

30 

13 

30.5 

Men's 

Ladies 

42.3 

22 21.9 

38.8 

1 

18.8 


Men's 

Ladies 

Oct-10 

The catchment channel is crucial, especially during “critical” times. An 

economic crisis does not change the fundamentals, it allows you to play on it! 

UK, watches, trends in value WoW 

Mass Merchandisers 

23% Market Share 

Jewellery Specialists 


94 

126.0 

-13 

9.7 

31 

Dept St/MOH 


11.6 

-3 

-8.5 

-1.1 

25.7 

-16-16.9 

Men's 

Ladies 

28


GfK R & T 

And what about online? 

Well, it is clearly the up and coming channel, both as an interface with a 

fanatical consumer basis, as much as a selling point 

Watches UK Market share units 2010 excluding monobrand websites 

Oct-10 

29

GfK R & T 

But the same rules apply as for the High Street traffic in branding 

(positioning) and overall offer consistency throughout your formats 

Dec 07 


Watches UK Market share units 2010 excluding monobrand websites 

Oct-10 

30

GfK R & T 

Internet Sales 

A behaviour, an extension of your retail footprint 

Dec 07 


11 Countries Europe 

B2C Sales Value % 

Jan-December 2009 

88,4 

% 

11,6 

% 

Internet Sales Traditional Sales 

Internet Sales – Countries 

11 countries 

Europe: 

Austria 

Belgium 

Switzerland 

Czech Republic 

Germany 


France 

Italy 

Netherlands 

Portugal 

UK 

Additional 

availability: 

Poland 

Slovakia 

Hungary 

Slovenia 

Russia 

Ukraine 

Technical Consumer Goods 

Consumer Electronics 

Major Domestic Appliances 

Small Domestic Appliances 

Telecommunication 

Information Technology 

Multifunctional Technical Goods 

Office Equipment 

Photo 

5 

19 

4 

18 

17 

6 

7 

14 

16 

Oct-10 

3 

8 

9 

10 

Source: GfK RT Retailpanel 

31

GfK R & T 

So once you have the brand, the country, the channel, the range, the time, 

you still have the opportunity to maximise your retail assets 

Dec 07 


Oct-10 

32

GfK R & T 

Fashion is very much a retail industry, hence the final layer of opportunities 

lie in the maximisation of the retail park 

Dec 07 


Oct-10 

Ex: Berlin Top 1 city in terms of 

stationary fashion sales in Germany 

Berlin – an island of people in a 

sea of sand 

33

GfK R & T 

Which means that beyond the opportunities in structure, there are still a 

lot of tactical opportunities 

Dec 07 


20 cities stand for 34% of the 

German fashion sales (brick & 

mortar, no mailorder, no online). 

Top 50 = 50% of total sales 

Oct-10 

34

Dec 07 



Sales Value % 

Sep 09 - Dec 09 

GfK R & T 

As a conclusion, opportunities in Fashion exist in ensuring 2 main drives: 

Total 

Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 

26 

26 

14 

19 

3,9 

100 

5 

3 

1 

2 

3 

21 

21 

18 

20 

7,1 

100 

5 

4 

1 

3 

6 

18 

20 

17 

23 

5,3 

100 

7 

4 

2 

3 

6 

15 

19 

19 

25 

6,9 

100 

6 

3 

2 

3 

7 

1 

Sales Mio. Euro 

in % of Total 

0 < 1 EUR 

1 < 2 EUR 

2 < 3 EUR 

3 < 4 EUR 

4 < 5 EUR 

5 < 6 EUR 

6 < 7 EUR 

7 < 8 EUR 

8 < 10 EUR 

CHANNEL 

REPORTS 

EU 4 Hyperm/Cash&Carry/Superm 

10 < 15 EUR 

> 15 EUR 

STOCKING 

2,5 

2,8 

2,9 

3,1 

Avg.Price EUR 

2,4 

2,6 

2,8 

2,9 

3,2 

3,4 

3,8 

3,9 

Contents and sequence to be set 

up with you 

© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com RG1716214-Socks/Stocking Prcl by Gender 7M (224) 

WOMEN 


26 

29 

13 

15 

6 

3 

2 

3 

4 

2,2 

56 

22 

23 

15 

17 

6 

6 

2 

3 

6 

4,4 

62 

18 

21 

16 

20 

6 

7 

2 

3 

6 

3,4 

64 

15 

22 

16 

21 

5 

6 

2 

4 

7 

4,3 

63 

1 

KIDS/MINI+BABY 


35 

37 

16 

0,1 

3 

4 

2 

1 

3 

1 

26 

40 

10 

6 

5 

7 

0,3 

4 

• HOLISTIC STRATEGY and BRANDING CONSISTENCY 

• SEEING THE CONSUMER AS NOT ONLY A WALLET, BUT ALSO A WATCH 

4 

2 

20 

41 

14 

8 

0,1 

3 

2 

2 

6 

5 

1 

22 

41 

10 

7 

9 

0,2 

3 

2 

4 

4 

BENCHMARK 

REPORTS 

Strategy decided 

RETAIL 

ANALYTICS 

Tactics implemented 

Shop existing 

Shop measured Shop planned 

ROI 

investment 

GEO MARKETING 

Oct-10 

35 

POS 

turnover 

in per 

mill 

values 

Belgium 

municip 

alities 

2009 

GfK GeoMarketing: Where do 

consumers spend money?

GfK R&T 

FIO WW dpt 

Global offer, local markets 

Pascal BOLLON 

15 tháng mười 2010

Retailing in 2010 - World Retail Congress

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