Current Population Survey Design and Methodology - Census Bureau
Current Population Survey Design and Methodology - Census Bureau
Current Population Survey Design and Methodology - Census Bureau
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International migration by age, sex, race, <strong>and</strong><br />
Hispanic origin. For the purposes of the estimates program,<br />
the net international migration component consists<br />
of three parts: (1) net migration of the foreign-born, (2)<br />
emigration of natives, <strong>and</strong> (3) net movement from Puerto<br />
Rico to the United States.<br />
Net migration of the foreign-born component.<br />
Although a component basis was used throughout most of<br />
the 1990s, the findings from an extensive evaluation<br />
showed that the use of administrative sources for developing<br />
migration components by migrant status for the<br />
foreign-born was problematic. 6 Therefore, we assumed<br />
that the net difference between two time periods for the<br />
foreign-born population using the same data source would<br />
be attributable to net migration. To maximize the use of<br />
available data, the American Community <strong>Survey</strong> (ACS) data<br />
for 2000, 2001, <strong>and</strong> 2002 was the basis for the net migration<br />
between 2000 to 2001, <strong>and</strong> 2001 to 2002. 7 The calculation<br />
of the change in the size of the foreign-born<br />
population, must be adjusted for deaths in the population<br />
during the period of interest.<br />
Characteristics for net migrants were imputed by taking<br />
the estimated net migration of the foreign-born <strong>and</strong> then<br />
redistributing that total to the <strong>Census</strong> 2000 distribution<br />
by single year of age (0−115+), sex-race (31 groups), Hispanic<br />
origin <strong>and</strong> county distribution of the noncitizen,<br />
foreign-born who reported that they entered in 1995 or<br />
later. The rationale was that the most recent immigrants in<br />
<strong>Census</strong> 2000 would most closely parallel the distribution<br />
of the foreign-born in the ACS, by age-sex-race-Hispanic<br />
origin <strong>and</strong> county.<br />
Net migration from Puerto Rico component. Since no<br />
data set would easily provide updated information on<br />
movement from Puerto Rico, there was no way to update<br />
the estimate that was based on the average movement of<br />
the 1990s. 8<br />
Characteristics were imputed for the net migration from<br />
Puerto Rico using the age-sex-race-Hispanic origin-county<br />
distribution of those who indicated that their place of<br />
birth was Puerto Rico <strong>and</strong> who had entered the United<br />
States in 1995 or later. The underlying assumption was<br />
that the characteristics of those who indicated that they<br />
were born in Puerto Rico <strong>and</strong> had migrated since 1995<br />
would parallel the distribution of recent migrants from<br />
Puerto Rico.<br />
6 An overview of the Demographic Analysis-<strong>Population</strong> Estimates<br />
(DAPE) project along with a summary of findings is in Deardorff,<br />
K. E. <strong>and</strong> L. Blumerman. Mulder, T., et.al., gives an overview<br />
of the methods used throughout the 1990s’ estimates series.<br />
7 Throughout, ‘‘ACS’’ will refer to the ACS combined with the<br />
Supplementary <strong>Survey</strong>s for the corresponding years.<br />
8 See Christenson, M., for an explanation of how the annual<br />
level of 11,133 was derived.<br />
<strong>Current</strong> <strong>Population</strong> <strong>Survey</strong> TP66<br />
U.S. <strong>Bureau</strong> of Labor Statistics <strong>and</strong> U.S. <strong>Census</strong> <strong>Bureau</strong><br />
Net native emigration component. Since no current<br />
data set would easily provide updated information on<br />
native emigration, there was no systematic way to update<br />
the estimate. 9 We assumed that natives who emigrated<br />
were likely to have the same distributions as natives who<br />
currently reside in the United States. Therefore, the level<br />
was distributed to the same age-sex-race-Hispanic origincounty<br />
proportions as those of the native population (born<br />
in the 50 states <strong>and</strong> DC) living in the 50 states <strong>and</strong> the<br />
District of Columbia in <strong>Census</strong> 2000.<br />
Combined net international migration component.<br />
The estimates of net migration of the foreign-born, net<br />
movement from Puerto Rico, <strong>and</strong> net emigration of natives<br />
were combined to create the estimate of the total net<br />
international migration component.<br />
The net international migration component was kept constant<br />
for years 2000 to 2003. The change in the foreignborn<br />
population from the 2000 to 2001 period <strong>and</strong> from<br />
the 2001 to 2002 period was not statistically significant.<br />
This finding, in conjunction with limited time for additional<br />
research, led to the decision to keep the estimate<br />
constant for the projected years 2004 <strong>and</strong> 2005. The additional<br />
parts of the net international migration component<br />
are kept constant because they are currently measured<br />
only once per decade.<br />
Migration of Armed Forces by age, sex, race, <strong>and</strong><br />
Hispanic origin. Estimation of demographic details for<br />
the remaining components of change requires estimation<br />
of the details for the Armed Forces residing overseas <strong>and</strong><br />
in the United States. These data are required to assign<br />
detail to the effects of Armed Forces recruitment on the<br />
civilian population.<br />
Distributions of the Armed Forces by branch of service,<br />
age, sex, race/Hispanic origin, <strong>and</strong> location inside or outside<br />
the United States are provided by the Department of<br />
Defense, Defense Manpower Data Center. The location <strong>and</strong><br />
service-specific totals closely resemble those provided by<br />
the individual branches of the services for all services<br />
except the Navy. For the Navy, it is necessary to adapt the<br />
location distribution of people residing on board ships to<br />
conform to census definitions, which is accomplished<br />
through a special tabulation (also provided by Defense<br />
Manpower Data Center) of people assigned to sea duty.<br />
These data are prorated to overseas <strong>and</strong> U.S. residence,<br />
based on the distribution of the total population afloat by<br />
physical location, supplied by the Navy.<br />
In order to incorporate the resulting Armed Forces distributions<br />
in estimates, the race-Hispanic-origin distribution<br />
must also be adapted. The Armed Forces ‘‘race-ethnic’’ categories<br />
supplied by the Defense Manpower Data Center<br />
9 See Gibbs, et.al., for an explanation of how the estimated<br />
annual level of 18.000 native emigrants was derived. Because of<br />
rounding, the sum of the detailed age, sex, race, <strong>and</strong> Hispanic origin<br />
estimates used in the actual estimates process is 18,012.<br />
Derivation of Independent <strong>Population</strong> Controls C–9