Current Population Survey Design and Methodology - Census Bureau

International migration by age, sex, race, and
Hispanic origin. For the purposes of the estimates program,
the net international migration component consists
of three parts: (1) net migration of the foreign-born, (2)
emigration of natives, and (3) net movement from Puerto
Rico to the United States.
Net migration of the foreign-born component.
Although a component basis was used throughout most of
the 1990s, the findings from an extensive evaluation
showed that the use of administrative sources for developing
migration components by migrant status for the
foreign-born was problematic. 6 Therefore, we assumed
that the net difference between two time periods for the
foreign-born population using the same data source would
be attributable to net migration. To maximize the use of
available data, the American Community Survey (ACS) data
for 2000, 2001, and 2002 was the basis for the net migration
between 2000 to 2001, and 2001 to 2002. 7 The calculation
of the change in the size of the foreign-born
population, must be adjusted for deaths in the population
during the period of interest.
Characteristics for net migrants were imputed by taking
the estimated net migration of the foreign-born and then
redistributing that total to the Census 2000 distribution
by single year of age (0−115+), sex-race (31 groups), Hispanic
origin and county distribution of the noncitizen,
foreign-born who reported that they entered in 1995 or
later. The rationale was that the most recent immigrants in
Census 2000 would most closely parallel the distribution
of the foreign-born in the ACS, by age-sex-race-Hispanic
origin and county.
Net migration from Puerto Rico component. Since no
data set would easily provide updated information on
movement from Puerto Rico, there was no way to update
the estimate that was based on the average movement of
the 1990s. 8
Characteristics were imputed for the net migration from
Puerto Rico using the age-sex-race-Hispanic origin-county
distribution of those who indicated that their place of
birth was Puerto Rico and who had entered the United
States in 1995 or later. The underlying assumption was
that the characteristics of those who indicated that they
were born in Puerto Rico and had migrated since 1995
would parallel the distribution of recent migrants from
Puerto Rico.
6 An overview of the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates
(DAPE) project along with a summary of findings is in Deardorff,
K. E. and L. Blumerman. Mulder, T., et.al., gives an overview
of the methods used throughout the 1990s’ estimates series.
7 Throughout, ‘‘ACS’’ will refer to the ACS combined with the
Supplementary Surveys for the corresponding years.
8 See Christenson, M., for an explanation of how the annual
level of 11,133 was derived.
Current Population Survey TP66
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau
Net native emigration component. Since no current
data set would easily provide updated information on
native emigration, there was no systematic way to update
the estimate. 9 We assumed that natives who emigrated
were likely to have the same distributions as natives who
currently reside in the United States. Therefore, the level
was distributed to the same age-sex-race-Hispanic origincounty
proportions as those of the native population (born
in the 50 states and DC) living in the 50 states and the
District of Columbia in Census 2000.
Combined net international migration component.
The estimates of net migration of the foreign-born, net
movement from Puerto Rico, and net emigration of natives
were combined to create the estimate of the total net
international migration component.
The net international migration component was kept constant
for years 2000 to 2003. The change in the foreignborn
population from the 2000 to 2001 period and from
the 2001 to 2002 period was not statistically significant.
This finding, in conjunction with limited time for additional
research, led to the decision to keep the estimate
constant for the projected years 2004 and 2005. The additional
parts of the net international migration component
are kept constant because they are currently measured
only once per decade.
Migration of Armed Forces by age, sex, race, and
Hispanic origin. Estimation of demographic details for
the remaining components of change requires estimation
of the details for the Armed Forces residing overseas and
in the United States. These data are required to assign
detail to the effects of Armed Forces recruitment on the
civilian population.
Distributions of the Armed Forces by branch of service,
age, sex, race/Hispanic origin, and location inside or outside
the United States are provided by the Department of
Defense, Defense Manpower Data Center. The location and
service-specific totals closely resemble those provided by
the individual branches of the services for all services
except the Navy. For the Navy, it is necessary to adapt the
location distribution of people residing on board ships to
conform to census definitions, which is accomplished
through a special tabulation (also provided by Defense
Manpower Data Center) of people assigned to sea duty.
These data are prorated to overseas and U.S. residence,
based on the distribution of the total population afloat by
physical location, supplied by the Navy.
In order to incorporate the resulting Armed Forces distributions
in estimates, the race-Hispanic-origin distribution
must also be adapted. The Armed Forces ‘‘race-ethnic’’ categories
supplied by the Defense Manpower Data Center
9 See Gibbs, et.al., for an explanation of how the estimated
annual level of 18.000 native emigrants was derived. Because of
rounding, the sum of the detailed age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
estimates used in the actual estimates process is 18,012.
Derivation of Independent Population Controls C–9