Book of Extended summaries ISDA

International Conference on Reimagining Rainfed Agro-ecosystems: Challenges &
Opportunities during 22-24, December 2022 at ICAR-CRIDA, Hyderabad
*Total number of advisories sent. Numbers in parentheses indicate percent success/failure of
forecast.
Results
Usability of forecasts: The advisories based on rainfall were least usable (39, 54, 41 and 44%
in Bengaluru rural, Bengaluru urban, Kolar and Chikkaballapur, respectively) mainly due to
weak agreement of forecast rainfall with actual. The agreement between forecast and observed
maximum temperature was 24, 26, 42 and 48% in Bengaluru rural, Bengaluru urban, Kolar and
Chikkaballapur, respectively. The forecasted minimum temperature had 35, 35, 68 and 69%
agreement with observed. And, forecasted wind speed had 24, 26, 42 and 48% agreement with
the observed wind speed. This dissimilarity between the observed and forecasted weather
parameters indicate the need for improving forecasts for precise agromet advisory issue.
Though there was a moderate similarity between forecasts and observed weather parameters,
the advisories on crop management were issued and the impact of issued advisories were
assessed using BC ratio. The farmers receiving advisory (AASF) compared to those not
receiving advisory (non-AASF) received more incomes reflected in in BC ratios of AASFs
(2.0, 2.7, 1.6 and 2.8 in field, vegetable, flower and fruit crops, respectively) as compared to
non-AASF (1.6, 1.7, 1.3 and 1.7 in field, vegetable, flower and fruit crops, respectively). Thus
it is evident that weather forecasts and their better usability upon proper dissemination of
information helped improve farm incomes in the drylands of Sothern Interior Karnataka.
Conclusion
The outcome of the study showed the poor accuracy of forecasted rainfall, though the forecastbased
crop management advices resulted in improved crop productivity through timely
management and changing crop management practices based on the forecasts given. This
stresses the role of meteorological institutions in securing higher crop productivity.
Institutional and policy innovations for accelerated and enhanced impacts
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