2022 Year in Review

SANCTIONS AND CHINA IMPLICATIONS
The question of sanctioning Myanmar brings back memories from the late
1990s for the United States, the European Union, and their allies. As Dr Tun
explained, “one school of thought is that the sanctions against Myanmar
drove the military junta closer to China. The fear for the US and Australia is if
they put too much pressure on the junta, such as by imposing sanctions, it will
result in the junta moving even closer to China, which is not in their national
interests. They believe the military will continue to rule for the time being, and
due to Myanmar’s strategic geographical position in the Indo Pacific, they wish
to keep the option of dialogue open.”
The 1990s sanctions imposed bans on supplying weapons and foreign
investment in Myanmar. The purpose was to reduce the military’s power and
promote progress towards a civilian-led democracy. In response to these
sanctions, Dr Tun explained, the military turned to China for weapons and
investment. It is important to understand China’s motivations for engagement
with Myanmar. Myanmar is a resource-rich country, particularly in metal ores,
petroleum, and natural gas. As an economic powerhouse, these resources are
vital for Chinese production. In addition, due to Myanmar's proximity to the
Indian Ocean, China imports energy supplies through the country to avoid the
U.S.-dominated Malacca Strait and shortens transport times by almost a week.
Dr Tun argues the fears from past sanctions are short-sighted as it ignores the
push and pull factors. In the 1990s, the sanctions pushed the junta closer to
China. As a result, the military is already as close as it can be to China.
Therefore, this push factor of the past is not applicable to the current
circumstances. Instead, Dr Tun argues, China’s significant interest in Myanmar
should be considered as a pull factor. He suggests China does not care who
oversees Myanmar, as they are more interested in its natural resources and
geostrategic position. If the NUG were to be in charge, China would still
attempt to engage with Myanmar. As such, would it not be more
advantageous for foreign governments to support the NUG?
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