2022 Year in Review

Yet, Erdogan still ties the outcome of the Armenian-Turkish process to this corridor and
to Armenia’s relinquishment of any claims or demands for self-determination in what
remains from Nagorno-Karabakh.
YET ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT
Erdogan’s unconditional support of Azerbaijan has emboldened Azerbaijan’s long-time
autocratic leader to not only voice threats, but to carry them out. On September 13,
Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military attack on the sovereign territory of Armenia, in
the South and in the East where Azerbaijan envisions the “Zangezur corridor.” The attack
was condemned by some actors of the international community, and the U.S. called on
Azerbaijani forces to return to its original positions while activating diplomatic efforts for
the signing of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty.
Thus, Turkey has not only failed to contain its ally and act as an unbiased mediator in the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but has given carte blanche to Aliyev to use force if the
collective Turkish and Azerbaijani demands are not met. Such a maximalist stance on the
Turkish side that neglects any Armenian positions on pressing matters and interests is
bound to take the process to a dead end. In return for the list of Turkish and Azerbaijani
demands, which amount to nothing less than a total and unconditional capitulation of
Armenia and the loss of state sovereignty, Turkey seems to offer only the opening of
borders and increased economic activity - Turkey will undoubtedly benefit from such an
opening.
The belligerent rhetoric on the Turkish side, with a Turkish legislator threatening to
“exterminate” Armenia as a country, coupled with the state of the negotiations and
Armenia’s lack of a credible, reliable security guarantor mean that the current diplomatic
process is nothing more than the exercise of Erdogan’s coercive diplomacy. Over the last
few years, Erdogan has shown incredible aptness at conducting expansionist foreign
policy that is imperialistic in nature and that relies on force, as shown in Syria, Iraq, Libya
etc. Unfortunately for the region and the world, this means that the current Armenian-
Turkish diplomatic talks are likely to be remembered by history as yet another failed
attempt at normalisation. Given the role of Turkey in the region and its grip over
Azerbaijan, this also means that the possibility of renewed armed conflict in the region
will increase.
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