2022 Year in Review

A BRIEF HISTORICAL OVERVIEW
Genocide and deep-seated ethnic hatred have defined the relations between Armenians
and Turks, and consequently the two countries (even when Armenia was part of the
Soviet empire) for decades. The genocide against Ottoman Armenians that started in
1915 and resulted in the massacre and expulsion of around 1.5 million Armenians from
their indigenous lands controlled by the Ottoman empire is the root cause of the conflict
that persists today. The established orthodoxy in Turkish society and the official
government position since the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923 has been to
deny the genocide, calling it an allegation meant to stain the country’s record and
misrepresent history, in order to avoid any possible legal, political, and cultural
repercussions.
However, the issue at stake today is not simply the Armenian pursuit of recognition and
justice for one of the worst crimes against humanity in the last century. While Armenia’s
first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan tried establishing friendly relations with Turkey after
the Soviet collapse, Turkey shut off its border with Armenia in 1993, imposing an
economic blockade, in solidarity with Azerbaijan after the Armenian-Azerbaijani ethnic
conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh turned into an all-out war in the 1990s.
Despite ambitious attempts to take steps towards normalisation in the past, such
initiatives have all failed. Before Pashinyan came to power in Armenia through mass
protests that led to a peaceful transition of power, his predecessor Serzh Sargsyan was
involved in the intensive process of the formulation of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols
which were eventually signed in 2009 but never ratified. Then Foreign Minister Erdogan
was key in stopping the Turkish ratification of the Protocols by tying the ratification of the
document to Armenia’s withdrawal from what he called “occupied Azerbaijani territory.”
Erdogan’s position on the Armenian-Turkish normalisation, as shown by Turkish
demands today, has not changed from the time he blocked the process moving forward.
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DIFFERENT FROM PAST ATTEMPTS?
What distinguishes the new round of diplomatic talks between Turkey and Armenia is the
precursor that created the context and circumstances in which the new process is carried
out: the outcome of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. After the 44-day war ended with
the signing of a tripartite ceasefire agreement in November 2020,