2022 Year in Review

The CKU’s touted benefits have been widely reported, shared, and embraced by
those in power in Bishkek and Tashkent. The supposed economic benefits and
intangible advantages have seemed to win over the Kyrgyz and Uzbek
governments. Nonetheless, the CKU faces the same challenges as the CER prior
to the Ukraine War.
Most of the CER’s freight stems from Russian orders and PRC imports of Russian
commodities, including crude oil, coal, fertiliser, gas and agricultural goods. In
2021, the CER made up only 4.45 percent of all China-Europe oceanic trade.
Prospects for trade-by-rail have been further clouded by slowing EU demand,
economic certainly, and declining confidence in China. The imbalance between
eastbound and westbound trains leaves many containers empty on their return
leg to China.
With the CKU forming the southern route of the CER, it will inevitably inherit the
already limited traffic previously flowing through Russia. But given the sorry
state of the CER, sceptics in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan may have valid and
legitimate arguments in their apprehensiveness towards the railway project. The
CKU, similar to other Chinese infrastructure projects abroad, may be relegated
to white-elephant status, with a financially tolling effect on Bishkek and
Tashkent.
Be that as it may, the CKU undeniably provides a crucial gateway for Kyrgyzstan
and Uzbekistan to reach the wider regions of the world, and allows their
products and goods to be shipped to previously inaccessible markets. If realised,
further expansion of the CKU may carve out a route for China to reach the
Persian Gulf and other transportation links in Europe.
The railway also provides Beijing with unique inroads into the Central Asian
region, all while the region’s own historic hegemon is distracted. Despite the
risks and unfavourable economics, Zhongnanhai will likely persist with the
project, viewing it from a geopolitical rather than economic lens. After all, as the
Chinese proverb reads, “it is foolish to refuse to eat just because of a chance of
choking.” ( )
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