2022 Year in Review

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine abruptly disrupted East-West rail traffic, and
the Russia-dependent CER was dust-binned due to European avoidance of
Russia and its sanctioned-related stigma. With Moscow’s aggressiveness on full
display, European and Chinese exporters and logistics firms transporting a
myriad of goods between the two continents looked to avoid land routes passing
through Russia or the combat area. The need for alternative routes began to
mount among both East and West, particularly among a possible European
boycott of products transported via Russian rail.
As the Chinese proverb reads, “opportunity knocks only once” (
), and in late September 2022 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation summit in Samarkand, opportunity knocked for Beijing. China,
Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan resuscitated plans for a new railway link bypassing
Russia. The CKU will form the southern arm of the CER, with the northern and
middle routes traversing through Russia. Once the CKU southern route is
completed, it will establish an even shorter transit time, looping southward to
connect China and Europe via the Caspian Sea, Iran, and Turkey. The CKU is
more than 500 kilometres shorter than its northern and middle counterparts,
decreasing transit time by approximately one week.
The idea of the CKU was first floated in 1997, but was stymied by Russian
geopolitical and economic interests in Central Asia, with Moscow apprehensive
of China’s growing role in the region. With the Kremlin now preoccupied with its
flailing war against Kyiv, Beijing has received Moscow’s go-ahead to proceed with
the project, and now more than two decades later, China has the
opportunity to proceed with the CKU. Another Chinese
proverb sums up Beijing’s opportunities: “the best
time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best
time is now.”
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