2022 Year in Review

However, an LNG supply deal struck between Qatar and Germany in November
has been able to provide a long-term diversification plan. The 15-year contract to
buy two million tonnes of LNG is set to launch Qatar into the top position as the
world’s largest LNG exporter. Whilst unable to immediately replace Russian gas
as deliveries won’t begin until 2026, plans for two direct terminals between
Germany and Qatar can address infrastructure concerns.
With the second largest gas reserves in the world, Iran was seen as a major
contender to provide Europe with LNG. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
Nasser Kanaani maintained in September that Iran had the potential to meet
Europe’s gas needs.
Many are rightfully cautious about the credibility of this claim. Despite a 3.1%
growth in natural gas production in 2021, making Iran the fourth largest gas
producer in the world, an increase in domestic consumption saw Tehran run a
gas deficit.
Regular gas shortages have seen domestic disruptions including the closure of
public services, like bakeries and water distributions, and cuts to heating in
households and businesses. Furthermore, when domestic consumption in
January increased, Iran cut off gas exports to Turkey, evincing the instability of
Iranian gas management. With 94% of Iranian gas consumed domestically,
Tehran’s future appears to be one of an energy importer rather than an exporter
to Europe.
This is largely due to the crippling technical effect of international sanctions on
Tehran. The lack of foreign investment and technological support has left Iran
unable to take advantage of its mass reserves. Existing terminals are outdated,
and new pipelines would be required to export to Europe.
Considering its tense political climate, catapulted by Mahsa Amini’s death, Iran is
ill-equipped to allocate already dire resources to alleviate Europe’s energy
debacle.
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