2022 Year in Review

For the Russians, this is an existential struggle for all intents and purposes, as
well as a high-risk gamble. Success could restore the role of Russia as a great
power and revert the humiliating setbacks that the Kremlin had to endure after
the implosion of the Soviet Union. For the United States and Western partners,
this crisis has offered an opportunity to bleed Russia dry in a nasty quagmire,
while also representing an opportunity to strengthen the cohesiveness of NATO.
So far, the latter has been more in-line with reality. Russia's military is being
reduced to rubble and NATO is expanding and strengthening its defences.
Indeed, Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon neutrality and seek NATO
membership, has brought the alliance closer, not further from Russia’s borders.
Likewise, instead of drawing Ukraine closer to Russia, the war has strengthened
Ukrainian nationalism and alienated it from Russia completely. In short, assertive
authoritarianism no longer looks like the wave of the future.
Currently, there seems little prospect
of an end to the war. Neither side is
ready yet to stop fighting or make
the kind of compromises that a
negotiated outcome to war would
require. Kyiv has defied all its
expectations and, in turn, its war
aims have become more ambitious.
It now seeks the return of all
Ukrainian territory occupied by
Russia since 2014, including Crimea.
Yet Russia, despite its recent
battlefield setbacks, has continued to
escalate, ordering partial
mobilisation and annexing four not
entirely occupied regions of eastern
Ukraine. This has signalled that
Moscow is in the conflict for the long
haul.
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