2022 Year in Review

Russia's second invasion into Ukraine represents one of the most seismic
geopolitical turning points of the current century. While Russia sacked Crimea in
2014 and has used grey-zone tactics in eastern Ukraine for years, the invasion on
the 24th of February has far greater implications, with the survival of Ukrainian
sovereignty being on the line. To date, at least tens-of-thousands of people have
been killed, millions have been displaced and NATO, and the West more broadly,
have found a new mission in confronting Russian transgressions. For
Washington, it has also offered a chance to solidify its traditional role as a global
leader after both the debacle of the Afghanistan withdrawal and the turmoil of
the Trump presidency.
As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues, the narrative has formed one of
‘democracies vs autocracies’ and forms a significant threat to the global rulesbased
order. The West has a significant stake in how the war plays out,
evidenced by the heavy-handed response and the billions of dollars of military
and financial support to Ukraine. As inspiring and effective as the Ukrainian
forces have been in the war against its much larger and capable neighbor, it is
highly doubtful they would be able to do so without Western support.
The outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war is still in doubt and Western
policymakers must plan and prepare for the various potential outcomes. This
could range from a surprise Ukrainian victory to an all-out nuclear confrontation.
These outcomes must be explored, as they will have direct consequences for
Ukraine, the region, the global order and narrative. If Russia prevails, the rulesbased
order will have collapsed and the world dominated by the whims of greatpower
competition will have prevailed. There are many potential endgames for
the war including a Ukrainian victory, a Russian military triumph, the use of
nuclear weapons in Ukraine or a negotiated settlement.
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