2022 Year in Review

The possibility of the Americans lending their titanic political, economic, and military
aid to Taiwan against China kept Beijing in check and maintained peace in the strait.
This deterrence was effective, until now. RAND Corporation, an American policy
research organisation with links to defence, assessed that China may be able to
successfully invade Taiwan by 2030, with some predicting even earlier. President of
the US Council on Foreign Relations noted in September 2020 that the gap between
Chinese and American military capabilities in the Taiwan Strait means the
effectiveness of strategic ambiguity has “run its course”.
THE US HAS BEEN ‘LYING FLAT’
US policies since the Cold War toward Taiwan have not changed: the Taiwan
Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances have remained
in place, almost frozen in time numb to changes in reality.
Meanwhile, the PRC passed its Anti-Secession Law in 2005, conducted multiple
invasion exercises off the Taiwanese coast, enacted a threatening new coast guard
law, and has begun near daily intrusions into the Taiwanese air defence zone since
August 2022. Internal Chinese military literature has also indicated the People’s
Liberation Army’s top three war plans are regarding Taiwan.
Yet, with such clear indication of the PRC’s intentions, the US has not shifted its policy
at all, instead ‘lying flat’. With the rise of the PRC’s military power and assertiveness,
strategic ambiguity makes Washington appear weak and confused, no doubt
stressing its regional allies. This has the complete opposite effect of strategic
ambiguity’s intention.
Deterring Chinese invasion is paramount to the US’ effort in managing competition
with the PRC. With the geostrategic calculus shifting away from the American favour,
the United States must rejig its cross-strait policies to match its rhetoric in protecting
and upholding the rules-based order and global democracy.
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