Theory of Knowledge - Course Companion for Students Marija Uzunova Dang Arvin Singh Uzunov Dang
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Theory of Knowledge - Course Companion for Students Marija Uzunova Dang Arvin Singh Uzunov Dang

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Univrsity of California BrklyThias issu is xplaind in thisgndrClark was ausd of having killd hrSallyhild at 11 wks of ag and hr sondfirstat 8 wks of ag. Sir Roy Madow, ahildand onsultant padiatriian, tstifidprofssoran xprt witnss that th proaility of twoasin th sam family dying from suddnhildrndath syndrom (SIDS, also alld otinfantwas approximatly 1 in 73 million. Thisdath)a gross undrstimat, arrivd at y takingwasproaility of a singl SIDS dath (1 inthand squaring it, with th assumption that8,543)proaility of suh daths is unorrlatdthinfants. Howvr, that assumptiontwnunjustifid, and in fat th opposit wouldwastru if a gnti prdisposition to SIDSRporting on th inidnt, Ray Hillxists.onludd that “aftr a first ot dath th(2004)of a sond om gratly inrasd”,hansa ot dath mothr is ausd“Whnmurdr, th prosution somtimsofa tati suh as th following.mploysth parnts ar afflunt, in a stalIfand non-smoking, thrlationshipwill laim that th hansprosutionth dath ing natural ar gratlyofand y impliation that thrdud,trms: Ar univrsitySarhiasd? Simpson’sadmissionsinrasd. But this impliation isgratlyfals, aus th vry sam fatorstotallymak a family low risk for ot dathwhihmak it low risk for murdr.”alsofaulty mathmatis did not stop thr.Thif th 1-in-73 million assssmnt wasEvnthis was not th proaility ofaurat,innon, ut rathr an a prioriClark’sthat ndd to wighdproailityth a priori proailitis of thagainstof thm vry unlikly—altrnativs—allwr:whih1. two sussiv SIDS daths in th2. doul homiid3. othr possiilitis (suh as on homiidwas an instan of th “prosutor’sItCruially, proaility stimatsfallay”.outoms 1 and 2 should hav nofin th statistial analysis of thompardClark was onvitd in 1999.prosution.Royal Statistial Soity raisd onrnsThth dision, issuing a prss rlasaoutstatd th following.thatth rnt highly-puliisd as of R v. Sally Clark, a mdial xprt witnss drw on pulishd“Into otain a figur for th frquny of suddn infant dath syndrom in familis having som ofstudisharatristis of th dfndant’s family. H wnt on to squar this figur to otain a valu of 1 in 73thfor th frquny of two ass of SIDS in suh a family.millionapproah is, in gnral, statistially invalid. It would only valid if SIDS ass arosThiswithin familis, an assumption that would nd to justifid mpirially. Not onlyindpndntlyno suh mpirial justifiation providd in th as, ut thr ar vry strong a priori rasons forwasthat th assumption will fals. Thr may wll unknown gnti or nvironmntalsupposingthat prdispos familis to SIDS, so that a sond as within th family oms muh morfatorslikly.IV. EthicsIV. Ethicsparadox part 2 YouTulinkd vido.Box 11.5: Faulty statistics and the “prosecutor’s fallacy”(Hill 2004)familyand also statd th following.and on SIDS).351

IV. Ethicswll-puliisd figur of 1 in 73 million thus has no statistial asis … . Th tru frquny of familisThtwo ass of SIDS may vry muh lss inriminating than th figur prsntd to th jury at trial.withfrom its invalidity, figurs suh as th 1 in 73 million ar vry asily misintrprtd. Som prssAsidat th tim statd that this was th han that th daths of Sally Clark’s two hildrn wrrportsThis (mis-)intrprtation is a srious rror of logi known as th Prosutor’s Fallay. Th juryaidntal.to wigh up two ompting xplanations for th ais’ daths: SIDS or murdr. Two daths yndsor two murdrs ar ah quit unlikly, ut on has apparntly happnd in this as. What mattrsSIDSth rlativ liklihood of th daths undr ah xplanation, not just how unlikly thy ar undr onisas of R v. Sally Clark is on xampl of a mdial xprt witnss making a srious statistial rror,Thwhih may hav had a profound fft on th outom of th as.onmany sintists hav som familiarity with statistial mthods, statistis rmains a spialisdAlthoughTh Soity urgs th Courts to nsur that statistial vidn is prsntd only y appropriatlyara.statistial xprts, as would th as for any othr form of xprt vidn.” (Royal Statistialqualifid2001)Soityonvition was ovrturnd in 2003Clark’svidn mrgd that th pathologistaftrxamind oth ais had withhldwhothat on of thm may hav didvidna rviw of hundrds of similar ass,Aftrtwo womn onvitd of murdringanothrhildrn had thir onvitionsthirA third woman who hadovrturnd.n ausd of murdring hr thralsowas aquittd in Jun 2003. Royhildrnhad tstifid as an xprt witnss inMadowas, dsriing th unliklihood ofahop with th thial hallngs arising fromToprodution or appliation of mathmatialtha numr of initiativs havknowldg,rlativly rntly. In th aftrmathformdth Camridg Analytia sandal, whihofdisuss at lngth in Chaptrs 2 and 3,wCamridg Univrsity sholars, Mauritwoand Pirs Bursill-Hall, st up thChiodoin Mathmatis (EiM) Projt, whihEthisits first onfrn in 2018. “Soorganizdas w know, thr is no univrsity in thfarthat urrntly offrs a wid-rangingworldot daths in a singl family. H wasmultiplfrom th mdial rgistr y thrmovdMdial Counil in 2005 for sriousGnralmisondut, ut latr rinstatd.profssionalor, mor spifially, statistisMathmatisusd rgularly in riminal lgal ass.isvidn, and its rlatd statistialDNAis rgularly usd oth inintrprtations,invstigations and on tlvision,riminalit is portrayd as fool-proofwhrHow should ourts nsurvidn.jurors ar apal of undrstandingthatmathmatis, or that lawyrs do notthmathmatial argumnts?misusmathmatial thial training forspifiallythy writ (Chiodo, Bursill-mathmatiians”,2018). To fill this gap, thy hav dsigndHallpilotd a ours alld “Ethis for thandmathmatiian”, a sris of ight hourlongworkinglturs. Follow th link to larn mortrms: Ltur ours:Sarhfor th workingEthis11xplanation. …from an inftion.IV.3 Professional standardsaout th issus it xplors.mathmatiian Chiodo352

IV. Ethics

wll-puliisd figur of 1 in 73 million thus has no statistial asis … . Th tru frquny of familis

Th

two ass of SIDS may vry muh lss inriminating than th figur prsntd to th jury at trial.

with

from its invalidity, figurs suh as th 1 in 73 million ar vry asily misintrprtd. Som prss

Asid

at th tim statd that this was th han that th daths of Sally Clark’s two hildrn wr

rports

This (mis-)intrprtation is a srious rror of logi known as th Prosutor’s Fallay. Th jury

aidntal.

to wigh up two ompting xplanations for th ais’ daths: SIDS or murdr. Two daths y

nds

or two murdrs ar ah quit unlikly, ut on has apparntly happnd in this as. What mattrs

SIDS

th rlativ liklihood of th daths undr ah xplanation, not just how unlikly thy ar undr on

is

as of R v. Sally Clark is on xampl of a mdial xprt witnss making a srious statistial rror,

Th

whih may hav had a profound fft on th outom of th as.

on

many sintists hav som familiarity with statistial mthods, statistis rmains a spialisd

Although

Th Soity urgs th Courts to nsur that statistial vidn is prsntd only y appropriatly

ara.

statistial xprts, as would th as for any othr form of xprt vidn.” (Royal Statistial

qualifid

2001)

Soity

onvition was ovrturnd in 2003

Clark’s

vidn mrgd that th pathologist

aftr

xamind oth ais had withhld

who

that on of thm may hav did

vidn

a rviw of hundrds of similar ass,

Aftr

two womn onvitd of murdring

anothr

hildrn had thir onvitions

thir

A third woman who had

ovrturnd.

n ausd of murdring hr thr

also

was aquittd in Jun 2003. Roy

hildrn

had tstifid as an xprt witnss in

Madow

as, dsriing th unliklihood of

ah

op with th thial hallngs arising from

To

prodution or appliation of mathmatial

th

a numr of initiativs hav

knowldg,

rlativly rntly. In th aftrmath

formd

th Camridg Analytia sandal, whih

of

disuss at lngth in Chaptrs 2 and 3,

w

Camridg Univrsity sholars, Mauri

two

and Pirs Bursill-Hall, st up th

Chiodo

in Mathmatis (EiM) Projt, whih

Ethis

its first onfrn in 2018. “So

organizd

as w know, thr is no univrsity in th

far

that urrntly offrs a wid-ranging

world

ot daths in a singl family. H was

multipl

from th mdial rgistr y th

rmovd

Mdial Counil in 2005 for srious

Gnral

misondut, ut latr rinstatd.

profssional

or, mor spifially, statistis

Mathmatis

usd rgularly in riminal lgal ass.

is

vidn, and its rlatd statistial

DNA

is rgularly usd oth in

intrprtations,

invstigations and on tlvision,

riminal

it is portrayd as fool-proof

whr

How should ourts nsur

vidn.

jurors ar apal of undrstanding

that

mathmatis, or that lawyrs do not

th

mathmatial argumnts?

misus

mathmatial thial training for

spifially

thy writ (Chiodo, Bursill-

mathmatiians”,

2018). To fill this gap, thy hav dsignd

Hall

pilotd a ours alld “Ethis for th

and

mathmatiian”, a sris of ight hourlong

working

lturs. Follow th link to larn mor

trms: Ltur ours:

Sarh

for th working

Ethis

11

xplanation. …

from an inftion.

IV.3 Professional standards

aout th issus it xplors.

mathmatiian Chiodo

352

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