Theory of Knowledge - Course Companion for Students Marija Uzunova Dang Arvin Singh Uzunov Dang
Univrsity of California BrklyThias issu is xplaind in thisgndrClark was ausd of having killd hrSallyhild at 11 wks of ag and hr sondfirstat 8 wks of ag. Sir Roy Madow, ahildand onsultant padiatriian, tstifidprofssoran xprt witnss that th proaility of twoasin th sam family dying from suddnhildrndath syndrom (SIDS, also alld otinfantwas approximatly 1 in 73 million. Thisdath)a gross undrstimat, arrivd at y takingwasproaility of a singl SIDS dath (1 inthand squaring it, with th assumption that8,543)proaility of suh daths is unorrlatdthinfants. Howvr, that assumptiontwnunjustifid, and in fat th opposit wouldwastru if a gnti prdisposition to SIDSRporting on th inidnt, Ray Hillxists.onludd that “aftr a first ot dath th(2004)of a sond om gratly inrasd”,hansa ot dath mothr is ausd“Whnmurdr, th prosution somtimsofa tati suh as th following.mploysth parnts ar afflunt, in a stalIfand non-smoking, thrlationshipwill laim that th hansprosutionth dath ing natural ar gratlyofand y impliation that thrdud,trms: Ar univrsitySarhiasd? Simpson’sadmissionsinrasd. But this impliation isgratlyfals, aus th vry sam fatorstotallymak a family low risk for ot dathwhihmak it low risk for murdr.”alsofaulty mathmatis did not stop thr.Thif th 1-in-73 million assssmnt wasEvnthis was not th proaility ofaurat,innon, ut rathr an a prioriClark’sthat ndd to wighdproailityth a priori proailitis of thagainstof thm vry unlikly—altrnativs—allwr:whih1. two sussiv SIDS daths in th2. doul homiid3. othr possiilitis (suh as on homiidwas an instan of th “prosutor’sItCruially, proaility stimatsfallay”.outoms 1 and 2 should hav nofin th statistial analysis of thompardClark was onvitd in 1999.prosution.Royal Statistial Soity raisd onrnsThth dision, issuing a prss rlasaoutstatd th following.thatth rnt highly-puliisd as of R v. Sally Clark, a mdial xprt witnss drw on pulishd“Into otain a figur for th frquny of suddn infant dath syndrom in familis having som ofstudisharatristis of th dfndant’s family. H wnt on to squar this figur to otain a valu of 1 in 73thfor th frquny of two ass of SIDS in suh a family.millionapproah is, in gnral, statistially invalid. It would only valid if SIDS ass arosThiswithin familis, an assumption that would nd to justifid mpirially. Not onlyindpndntlyno suh mpirial justifiation providd in th as, ut thr ar vry strong a priori rasons forwasthat th assumption will fals. Thr may wll unknown gnti or nvironmntalsupposingthat prdispos familis to SIDS, so that a sond as within th family oms muh morfatorslikly.IV. EthicsIV. Ethicsparadox part 2 YouTulinkd vido.Box 11.5: Faulty statistics and the “prosecutor’s fallacy”(Hill 2004)familyand also statd th following.and on SIDS).351
IV. Ethicswll-puliisd figur of 1 in 73 million thus has no statistial asis … . Th tru frquny of familisThtwo ass of SIDS may vry muh lss inriminating than th figur prsntd to th jury at trial.withfrom its invalidity, figurs suh as th 1 in 73 million ar vry asily misintrprtd. Som prssAsidat th tim statd that this was th han that th daths of Sally Clark’s two hildrn wrrportsThis (mis-)intrprtation is a srious rror of logi known as th Prosutor’s Fallay. Th juryaidntal.to wigh up two ompting xplanations for th ais’ daths: SIDS or murdr. Two daths yndsor two murdrs ar ah quit unlikly, ut on has apparntly happnd in this as. What mattrsSIDSth rlativ liklihood of th daths undr ah xplanation, not just how unlikly thy ar undr onisas of R v. Sally Clark is on xampl of a mdial xprt witnss making a srious statistial rror,Thwhih may hav had a profound fft on th outom of th as.onmany sintists hav som familiarity with statistial mthods, statistis rmains a spialisdAlthoughTh Soity urgs th Courts to nsur that statistial vidn is prsntd only y appropriatlyara.statistial xprts, as would th as for any othr form of xprt vidn.” (Royal Statistialqualifid2001)Soityonvition was ovrturnd in 2003Clark’svidn mrgd that th pathologistaftrxamind oth ais had withhldwhothat on of thm may hav didvidna rviw of hundrds of similar ass,Aftrtwo womn onvitd of murdringanothrhildrn had thir onvitionsthirA third woman who hadovrturnd.n ausd of murdring hr thralsowas aquittd in Jun 2003. Royhildrnhad tstifid as an xprt witnss inMadowas, dsriing th unliklihood ofahop with th thial hallngs arising fromToprodution or appliation of mathmatialtha numr of initiativs havknowldg,rlativly rntly. In th aftrmathformdth Camridg Analytia sandal, whihofdisuss at lngth in Chaptrs 2 and 3,wCamridg Univrsity sholars, Mauritwoand Pirs Bursill-Hall, st up thChiodoin Mathmatis (EiM) Projt, whihEthisits first onfrn in 2018. “Soorganizdas w know, thr is no univrsity in thfarthat urrntly offrs a wid-rangingworldot daths in a singl family. H wasmultiplfrom th mdial rgistr y thrmovdMdial Counil in 2005 for sriousGnralmisondut, ut latr rinstatd.profssionalor, mor spifially, statistisMathmatisusd rgularly in riminal lgal ass.isvidn, and its rlatd statistialDNAis rgularly usd oth inintrprtations,invstigations and on tlvision,riminalit is portrayd as fool-proofwhrHow should ourts nsurvidn.jurors ar apal of undrstandingthatmathmatis, or that lawyrs do notthmathmatial argumnts?misusmathmatial thial training forspifiallythy writ (Chiodo, Bursill-mathmatiians”,2018). To fill this gap, thy hav dsigndHallpilotd a ours alld “Ethis for thandmathmatiian”, a sris of ight hourlongworkinglturs. Follow th link to larn mortrms: Ltur ours:Sarhfor th workingEthis11xplanation. …from an inftion.IV.3 Professional standardsaout th issus it xplors.mathmatiian Chiodo352
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IV. Ethics
wll-puliisd figur of 1 in 73 million thus has no statistial asis … . Th tru frquny of familis
Th
two ass of SIDS may vry muh lss inriminating than th figur prsntd to th jury at trial.
with
from its invalidity, figurs suh as th 1 in 73 million ar vry asily misintrprtd. Som prss
Asid
at th tim statd that this was th han that th daths of Sally Clark’s two hildrn wr
rports
This (mis-)intrprtation is a srious rror of logi known as th Prosutor’s Fallay. Th jury
aidntal.
to wigh up two ompting xplanations for th ais’ daths: SIDS or murdr. Two daths y
nds
or two murdrs ar ah quit unlikly, ut on has apparntly happnd in this as. What mattrs
SIDS
th rlativ liklihood of th daths undr ah xplanation, not just how unlikly thy ar undr on
is
as of R v. Sally Clark is on xampl of a mdial xprt witnss making a srious statistial rror,
Th
whih may hav had a profound fft on th outom of th as.
on
many sintists hav som familiarity with statistial mthods, statistis rmains a spialisd
Although
Th Soity urgs th Courts to nsur that statistial vidn is prsntd only y appropriatly
ara.
statistial xprts, as would th as for any othr form of xprt vidn.” (Royal Statistial
qualifid
2001)
Soity
onvition was ovrturnd in 2003
Clark’s
vidn mrgd that th pathologist
aftr
xamind oth ais had withhld
who
that on of thm may hav did
vidn
a rviw of hundrds of similar ass,
Aftr
two womn onvitd of murdring
anothr
hildrn had thir onvitions
thir
A third woman who had
ovrturnd.
n ausd of murdring hr thr
also
was aquittd in Jun 2003. Roy
hildrn
had tstifid as an xprt witnss in
Madow
as, dsriing th unliklihood of
ah
op with th thial hallngs arising from
To
prodution or appliation of mathmatial
th
a numr of initiativs hav
knowldg,
rlativly rntly. In th aftrmath
formd
th Camridg Analytia sandal, whih
of
disuss at lngth in Chaptrs 2 and 3,
w
Camridg Univrsity sholars, Mauri
two
and Pirs Bursill-Hall, st up th
Chiodo
in Mathmatis (EiM) Projt, whih
Ethis
its first onfrn in 2018. “So
organizd
as w know, thr is no univrsity in th
far
that urrntly offrs a wid-ranging
world
ot daths in a singl family. H was
multipl
from th mdial rgistr y th
rmovd
Mdial Counil in 2005 for srious
Gnral
misondut, ut latr rinstatd.
profssional
or, mor spifially, statistis
Mathmatis
usd rgularly in riminal lgal ass.
is
vidn, and its rlatd statistial
DNA
is rgularly usd oth in
intrprtations,
invstigations and on tlvision,
riminal
it is portrayd as fool-proof
whr
How should ourts nsur
vidn.
jurors ar apal of undrstanding
that
mathmatis, or that lawyrs do not
th
mathmatial argumnts?
misus
mathmatial thial training for
spifially
thy writ (Chiodo, Bursill-
mathmatiians”,
2018). To fill this gap, thy hav dsignd
Hall
pilotd a ours alld “Ethis for th
and
mathmatiian”, a sris of ight hourlong
working
lturs. Follow th link to larn mor
trms: Ltur ours:
Sarh
for th working
Ethis
11
xplanation. …
from an inftion.
IV.3 Professional standards
aout th issus it xplors.
mathmatiian Chiodo
352