Theory of Knowledge - Course Companion for Students Marija Uzunova Dang Arvin Singh Uzunov Dang
Number of violent events per 5 yearsstruturalism and postmodrnism, mosttohav aandond th lif inhistoriansTurhin is dtrmind to show that “historyYt,not ‘just on damn thing aftr anothr’”isin Spinny 2012). His tam stats that(quotdtools allow thm to rvisit th gnral laws,nwsimulations of individual intrations andusingdataass of historial information.massivis nw is not thir sarh for pattrns—Whathav long orrlatd politial instailitysholarsonomi and dmographi varials—utwithsal of analysis, whih spans nturisthplots millions of intrations. Thy fousandfour paramtrs of long-trm soial trnds:onnumrs, soial strutur, statpopulationand politial instaility. Eah isstrngthusing svral indiators. For xampl,masurdstrutur masurs halth inquality andsoialwork omplmnts rsarh ing donThisothr quantitativ soial sintists, suhyClaudio Cioffi-Rvilla, whos tam ussasmodls to undrstand th fftsomputrmigration pattrns and thni alliansSasonalonsidrd y th tam’s modls, and thyarvntually to prdit flows of rfugs andhoponflit hotspots. Cliodynamis ouldpotntialthir modl y providing pattrnsstrngthnfrom historial data.xtratdGoldston, Dirtor of th Cntr forJakPoliy at Gorg Mason Univrsity andGloalmmr of th Politial Instaility Task For,ay th CIA to forast vnts outsidfunddUnitd Stats, also wloms Cliodynamisthh autions that it is usful only for lookingutsome aspects of history, a scientic orForapproach is suitable, natural and fruitful.cliodynamicexample,] when we map the frequency versus[Forof an event — deaths in various battlesmagnitudea war, casualties in natural disasters, years toina state — we nd that there is a consistentrebuildof higher frequencies at low magnitudes, andpatternfrequencies at high magnitudes, that follows alowerIII. Methods and toolsIII. Methods and toolsCycles of violenceThe motivating issues vary, but episodesof violent political upheaval in the UnitedStates are surprisingly regular.192080Racial tensions, unrest among workers6040201870class and politicalRacial,peaked duringtensionsafter the Civil War.andanticommunist feeling surged inandaftermath of the First World War.the1970civil rights movement, social changeTheopposition to the Vietnam Warandthe tumultuous 1960s.markedPoliticalor economicLabourRacially motivatedVigilante01800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Figure 9.6 Pattern of violent events in the United States, 1800–2000gnral laws” (quotd in Spinny 2012).at road trnds.walth inquality.precise mathematical formula.(Goldstone quoted in Spinney 2012)of limat hang and drought in East Afria.271
III. Methods and toolswould naiv, though, to attmpt toItuniqu vnts asd on suh analyss.prditmain waknss of prditions asd onThis th lak of historial data. Manytrndsar dstroyd or prsrvd y han.rordsknowldg tnds to aumulat aroundAlso,sujt aras. Danil Szhi adds thnarrowfollowing.Brlin mad th following ommntsIsaiahpattrn disovry in 1969.aoutin mind th xampl of CliodynamisKpwll as Isaiah Brlin’s ommnts aoutasof th futur may not hav thisHistoriansFor now, Cliodynamis has mad noprolm.rakthroughs nor n aandond asmajorara of study.an1. To what xtnt dos Brlin’s warningWhat has hangd, and what has(a)th sam, sin h mad thstaydand intrdisiplinary invstigationThnologyhow w ass and study tras of thafftHow this hangs th natur of historialpast.or th haratr of historial inquiry,knowldg,an opn qustion for us in TOK. Anothrrmainsqustion, not aus it is a nw ida utopnit touhs on fundamntal issus inausis that of ountrfatuals.history,ar th “might-hav-nsCountrfatualshistory”, a tool mployd fondly y somof(and dridd as a “parlour gam” yhistoriansto xplor th importan of historialothrs)and individuals. Proponnts ofinidntshistory argu that it an larifyountrfatualundrstanding of aus and fft, andourth dtrminism that oftn rpsrduhistorial narrativs, with nfiialintofor historial knowldg. Whatimpliationsth Sovits had suumd to th Nazisifth Sond World War during OprationinTh qustion ould, on mightBararossa?larify th aility of th othr Allidargu,9We can tell you in great detail what the grain priceswere in a few towns in southern England in the MiddleAges. But we can’t tell you how most ordinary peoplelived their lives.(Szechi quoted in Spinney 2012)apply today?The notion that one can discover large patterns orommnts quotd aov?in the procession of historical events isregularitiesattractive to those who are impressed bynaturallysuccess of the natural sciences in classifying,theand above all predicting. This theycorrelating,in the service of an imaginary science; and,dothe astrologers and soothsayers whom theylikesucceeded, cast up their eyes to the clouds,havespeak in immense, unsubstantiated imagesandsimiles, in deeply misleading metaphors andandOn ould say that a lot has hangd(b)1969, ut an w say thatsinhas hangd? What ritrianoughyou us to judg?wouldallegories, and make use of hypnotic formulae withlittle regard for experience, or rational argument,or tests of proven reliability. Thereby they throwdust in their own eyes as well as in ours, obstructour vision of the real world, and further confuse analready suciently bewildered public about therelations of morality to politics, and about the natureand methods of the natural sciences and historicalstudies alike.(Berlin 1969)For ref lectionLooking for patternspattrn disovry.powrs to win th war vntually.272
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III. Methods and tools
would naiv, though, to attmpt to
It
uniqu vnts asd on suh analyss.
prdit
main waknss of prditions asd on
Th
is th lak of historial data. Many
trnds
ar dstroyd or prsrvd y han.
rords
knowldg tnds to aumulat around
Also,
sujt aras. Danil Szhi adds th
narrow
following.
Brlin mad th following ommnts
Isaiah
pattrn disovry in 1969.
aout
in mind th xampl of Cliodynamis
Kp
wll as Isaiah Brlin’s ommnts aout
as
of th futur may not hav this
Historians
For now, Cliodynamis has mad no
prolm.
rakthroughs nor n aandond as
major
ara of study.
an
1. To what xtnt dos Brlin’s warning
What has hangd, and what has
(a)
th sam, sin h mad th
stayd
and intrdisiplinary invstigation
Thnology
how w ass and study tras of th
afft
How this hangs th natur of historial
past.
or th haratr of historial inquiry,
knowldg,
an opn qustion for us in TOK. Anothr
rmains
qustion, not aus it is a nw ida ut
opn
it touhs on fundamntal issus in
aus
is that of ountrfatuals.
history,
ar th “might-hav-ns
Countrfatuals
history”, a tool mployd fondly y som
of
(and dridd as a “parlour gam” y
historians
to xplor th importan of historial
othrs)
and individuals. Proponnts of
inidnts
history argu that it an larify
ountrfatual
undrstanding of aus and fft, and
our
th dtrminism that oftn rps
rdu
historial narrativs, with nfiial
into
for historial knowldg. What
impliations
th Sovits had suumd to th Nazis
if
th Sond World War during Opration
in
Th qustion ould, on might
Bararossa?
larify th aility of th othr Allid
argu,
9
We can tell you in great detail what the grain prices
were in a few towns in southern England in the Middle
Ages. But we can’t tell you how most ordinary people
lived their lives.
(Szechi quoted in Spinney 2012)
apply today?
The notion that one can discover large patterns or
ommnts quotd aov?
in the procession of historical events is
regularities
attractive to those who are impressed by
naturally
success of the natural sciences in classifying,
the
and above all predicting. This they
correlating,
in the service of an imaginary science; and,
do
the astrologers and soothsayers whom they
like
succeeded, cast up their eyes to the clouds,
have
speak in immense, unsubstantiated images
and
similes, in deeply misleading metaphors and
and
On ould say that a lot has hangd
(b)
1969, ut an w say that
sin
has hangd? What ritria
nough
you us to judg?
would
allegories, and make use of hypnotic formulae with
little regard for experience, or rational argument,
or tests of proven reliability. Thereby they throw
dust in their own eyes as well as in ours, obstruct
our vision of the real world, and further confuse an
already suciently bewildered public about the
relations of morality to politics, and about the nature
and methods of the natural sciences and historical
studies alike.
(Berlin 1969)
For ref lection
Looking for patterns
pattrn disovry.
powrs to win th war vntually.
272