Theory of Knowledge - Course Companion for Students Marija Uzunova Dang Arvin Singh Uzunov Dang

III. Methods and tools
would naiv, though, to attmpt to
It
uniqu vnts asd on suh analyss.
prdit
main waknss of prditions asd on
Th
is th lak of historial data. Many
trnds
ar dstroyd or prsrvd y han.
rords
knowldg tnds to aumulat around
Also,
sujt aras. Danil Szhi adds th
narrow
following.
Brlin mad th following ommnts
Isaiah
pattrn disovry in 1969.
aout
in mind th xampl of Cliodynamis
Kp
wll as Isaiah Brlin’s ommnts aout
as
of th futur may not hav this
Historians
For now, Cliodynamis has mad no
prolm.
rakthroughs nor n aandond as
major
ara of study.
an
1. To what xtnt dos Brlin’s warning
What has hangd, and what has
(a)
th sam, sin h mad th
stayd
and intrdisiplinary invstigation
Thnology
how w ass and study tras of th
afft
How this hangs th natur of historial
past.
or th haratr of historial inquiry,
knowldg,
an opn qustion for us in TOK. Anothr
rmains
qustion, not aus it is a nw ida ut
opn
it touhs on fundamntal issus in
aus
is that of ountrfatuals.
history,
ar th “might-hav-ns
Countrfatuals
history”, a tool mployd fondly y som
of
(and dridd as a “parlour gam” y
historians
to xplor th importan of historial
othrs)
and individuals. Proponnts of
inidnts
history argu that it an larify
ountrfatual
undrstanding of aus and fft, and
our
th dtrminism that oftn rps
rdu
historial narrativs, with nfiial
into
for historial knowldg. What
impliations
th Sovits had suumd to th Nazis
if
th Sond World War during Opration
in
Th qustion ould, on might
Bararossa?
larify th aility of th othr Allid
argu,
9
We can tell you in great detail what the grain prices
were in a few towns in southern England in the Middle
Ages. But we can’t tell you how most ordinary people
lived their lives.
(Szechi quoted in Spinney 2012)
apply today?
The notion that one can discover large patterns or
ommnts quotd aov?
in the procession of historical events is
regularities
attractive to those who are impressed by
naturally
success of the natural sciences in classifying,
the
and above all predicting. This they
correlating,
in the service of an imaginary science; and,
do
the astrologers and soothsayers whom they
like
succeeded, cast up their eyes to the clouds,
have
speak in immense, unsubstantiated images
and
similes, in deeply misleading metaphors and
and
On ould say that a lot has hangd
(b)
1969, ut an w say that
sin
has hangd? What ritria
nough
you us to judg?
would
allegories, and make use of hypnotic formulae with
little regard for experience, or rational argument,
or tests of proven reliability. Thereby they throw
dust in their own eyes as well as in ours, obstruct
our vision of the real world, and further confuse an
already suciently bewildered public about the
relations of morality to politics, and about the nature
and methods of the natural sciences and historical
studies alike.
(Berlin 1969)
For ref lection
Looking for patterns
pattrn disovry.
powrs to win th war vntually.
272