Theory of Knowledge - Course Companion for Students Marija Uzunova Dang Arvin Singh Uzunov Dang
Number of violent events per 5 yearsstruturalism and postmodrnism, mosttohav aandond th lif inhistoriansTurhin is dtrmind to show that “historyYt,not ‘just on damn thing aftr anothr’”isin Spinny 2012). His tam stats that(quotdtools allow thm to rvisit th gnral laws,nwsimulations of individual intrations andusingdataass of historial information.massivis nw is not thir sarh for pattrns—Whathav long orrlatd politial instailitysholarsonomi and dmographi varials—utwithsal of analysis, whih spans nturisthplots millions of intrations. Thy fousandfour paramtrs of long-trm soial trnds:onnumrs, soial strutur, statpopulationand politial instaility. Eah isstrngthusing svral indiators. For xampl,masurdstrutur masurs halth inquality andsoialwork omplmnts rsarh ing donThisothr quantitativ soial sintists, suhyClaudio Cioffi-Rvilla, whos tam ussasmodls to undrstand th fftsomputrmigration pattrns and thni alliansSasonalonsidrd y th tam’s modls, and thyarvntually to prdit flows of rfugs andhoponflit hotspots. Cliodynamis ouldpotntialthir modl y providing pattrnsstrngthnfrom historial data.xtratdGoldston, Dirtor of th Cntr forJakPoliy at Gorg Mason Univrsity andGloalmmr of th Politial Instaility Task For,ay th CIA to forast vnts outsidfunddUnitd Stats, also wloms Cliodynamisthh autions that it is usful only for lookingutsome aspects of history, a scientic orForapproach is suitable, natural and fruitful.cliodynamicexample,] when we map the frequency versus[Forof an event — deaths in various battlesmagnitudea war, casualties in natural disasters, years toina state — we nd that there is a consistentrebuildof higher frequencies at low magnitudes, andpatternfrequencies at high magnitudes, that follows alowerIII. Methods and toolsIII. Methods and toolsCycles of violenceThe motivating issues vary, but episodesof violent political upheaval in the UnitedStates are surprisingly regular.192080Racial tensions, unrest among workers6040201870class and politicalRacial,peaked duringtensionsafter the Civil War.andanticommunist feeling surged inandaftermath of the First World War.the1970civil rights movement, social changeTheopposition to the Vietnam Warandthe tumultuous 1960s.markedPoliticalor economicLabourRacially motivatedVigilante01800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Figure 9.6 Pattern of violent events in the United States, 1800–2000gnral laws” (quotd in Spinny 2012).at road trnds.walth inquality.precise mathematical formula.(Goldstone quoted in Spinney 2012)of limat hang and drought in East Afria.271
III. Methods and toolswould naiv, though, to attmpt toItuniqu vnts asd on suh analyss.prditmain waknss of prditions asd onThis th lak of historial data. Manytrndsar dstroyd or prsrvd y han.rordsknowldg tnds to aumulat aroundAlso,sujt aras. Danil Szhi adds thnarrowfollowing.Brlin mad th following ommntsIsaiahpattrn disovry in 1969.aoutin mind th xampl of CliodynamisKpwll as Isaiah Brlin’s ommnts aoutasof th futur may not hav thisHistoriansFor now, Cliodynamis has mad noprolm.rakthroughs nor n aandond asmajorara of study.an1. To what xtnt dos Brlin’s warningWhat has hangd, and what has(a)th sam, sin h mad thstaydand intrdisiplinary invstigationThnologyhow w ass and study tras of thafftHow this hangs th natur of historialpast.or th haratr of historial inquiry,knowldg,an opn qustion for us in TOK. Anothrrmainsqustion, not aus it is a nw ida utopnit touhs on fundamntal issus inausis that of ountrfatuals.history,ar th “might-hav-nsCountrfatualshistory”, a tool mployd fondly y somof(and dridd as a “parlour gam” yhistoriansto xplor th importan of historialothrs)and individuals. Proponnts ofinidntshistory argu that it an larifyountrfatualundrstanding of aus and fft, andourth dtrminism that oftn rpsrduhistorial narrativs, with nfiialintofor historial knowldg. Whatimpliationsth Sovits had suumd to th Nazisifth Sond World War during OprationinTh qustion ould, on mightBararossa?larify th aility of th othr Allidargu,9We can tell you in great detail what the grain priceswere in a few towns in southern England in the MiddleAges. But we can’t tell you how most ordinary peoplelived their lives.(Szechi quoted in Spinney 2012)apply today?The notion that one can discover large patterns orommnts quotd aov?in the procession of historical events isregularitiesattractive to those who are impressed bynaturallysuccess of the natural sciences in classifying,theand above all predicting. This theycorrelating,in the service of an imaginary science; and,dothe astrologers and soothsayers whom theylikesucceeded, cast up their eyes to the clouds,havespeak in immense, unsubstantiated imagesandsimiles, in deeply misleading metaphors andandOn ould say that a lot has hangd(b)1969, ut an w say thatsinhas hangd? What ritrianoughyou us to judg?wouldallegories, and make use of hypnotic formulae withlittle regard for experience, or rational argument,or tests of proven reliability. Thereby they throwdust in their own eyes as well as in ours, obstructour vision of the real world, and further confuse analready suciently bewildered public about therelations of morality to politics, and about the natureand methods of the natural sciences and historicalstudies alike.(Berlin 1969)For ref lectionLooking for patternspattrn disovry.powrs to win th war vntually.272
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Number of violent events per 5 years
struturalism and postmodrnism, most
to
hav aandond th lif in
historians
Turhin is dtrmind to show that “history
Yt,
not ‘just on damn thing aftr anothr’”
is
in Spinny 2012). His tam stats that
(quotd
tools allow thm to rvisit th gnral laws,
nw
simulations of individual intrations and
using
dataass of historial information.
massiv
is nw is not thir sarh for pattrns—
What
hav long orrlatd politial instaility
sholars
onomi and dmographi varials—ut
with
sal of analysis, whih spans nturis
th
plots millions of intrations. Thy fous
and
four paramtrs of long-trm soial trnds:
on
numrs, soial strutur, stat
population
and politial instaility. Eah is
strngth
using svral indiators. For xampl,
masurd
strutur masurs halth inquality and
soial
work omplmnts rsarh ing don
This
othr quantitativ soial sintists, suh
y
Claudio Cioffi-Rvilla, whos tam uss
as
modls to undrstand th ffts
omputr
migration pattrns and thni allians
Sasonal
onsidrd y th tam’s modls, and thy
ar
vntually to prdit flows of rfugs and
hop
onflit hotspots. Cliodynamis ould
potntial
thir modl y providing pattrns
strngthn
from historial data.
xtratd
Goldston, Dirtor of th Cntr for
Jak
Poliy at Gorg Mason Univrsity and
Gloal
mmr of th Politial Instaility Task For,
a
y th CIA to forast vnts outsid
fundd
Unitd Stats, also wloms Cliodynamis
th
h autions that it is usful only for looking
ut
some aspects of history, a scientic or
For
approach is suitable, natural and fruitful.
cliodynamic
example,] when we map the frequency versus
[For
of an event — deaths in various battles
magnitude
a war, casualties in natural disasters, years to
in
a state — we nd that there is a consistent
rebuild
of higher frequencies at low magnitudes, and
pattern
frequencies at high magnitudes, that follows a
lower
III. Methods and tools
III. Methods and tools
Cycles of violence
The motivating issues vary, but episodes
of violent political upheaval in the United
States are surprisingly regular.
1920
80
Racial tensions, unrest among workers
60
40
20
1870
class and political
Racial,
peaked during
tensions
after the Civil War.
and
anticommunist feeling surged in
and
aftermath of the First World War.
the
1970
civil rights movement, social change
The
opposition to the Vietnam War
and
the tumultuous 1960s.
marked
Political
or economic
Labour
Racially motivated
Vigilante
0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Figure 9.6 Pattern of violent events in the United States, 1800–2000
gnral laws” (quotd in Spinny 2012).
at road trnds.
walth inquality.
precise mathematical formula.
(Goldstone quoted in Spinney 2012)
of limat hang and drought in East Afria.
271