Theory of Knowledge - Course Companion for Students Marija Uzunova Dang Arvin Singh Uzunov Dang

Number of violent events per 5 years
struturalism and postmodrnism, most
to
hav aandond th lif in
historians
Turhin is dtrmind to show that “history
Yt,
not ‘just on damn thing aftr anothr’”
is
in Spinny 2012). His tam stats that
(quotd
tools allow thm to rvisit th gnral laws,
nw
simulations of individual intrations and
using
dataass of historial information.
massiv
is nw is not thir sarh for pattrns—
What
hav long orrlatd politial instaility
sholars
onomi and dmographi varials—ut
with
sal of analysis, whih spans nturis
th
plots millions of intrations. Thy fous
and
four paramtrs of long-trm soial trnds:
on
numrs, soial strutur, stat
population
and politial instaility. Eah is
strngth
using svral indiators. For xampl,
masurd
strutur masurs halth inquality and
soial
work omplmnts rsarh ing don
This
othr quantitativ soial sintists, suh
y
Claudio Cioffi-Rvilla, whos tam uss
as
modls to undrstand th ffts
omputr
migration pattrns and thni allians
Sasonal
onsidrd y th tam’s modls, and thy
ar
vntually to prdit flows of rfugs and
hop
onflit hotspots. Cliodynamis ould
potntial
thir modl y providing pattrns
strngthn
from historial data.
xtratd
Goldston, Dirtor of th Cntr for
Jak
Poliy at Gorg Mason Univrsity and
Gloal
mmr of th Politial Instaility Task For,
a
y th CIA to forast vnts outsid
fundd
Unitd Stats, also wloms Cliodynamis
th
h autions that it is usful only for looking
ut
some aspects of history, a scientic or
For
approach is suitable, natural and fruitful.
cliodynamic
example,] when we map the frequency versus
[For
of an event — deaths in various battles
magnitude
a war, casualties in natural disasters, years to
in
a state — we nd that there is a consistent
rebuild
of higher frequencies at low magnitudes, and
pattern
frequencies at high magnitudes, that follows a
lower
III. Methods and tools
III. Methods and tools
Cycles of violence
The motivating issues vary, but episodes
of violent political upheaval in the United
States are surprisingly regular.
1920
80
Racial tensions, unrest among workers
60
40
20
1870
class and political
Racial,
peaked during
tensions
after the Civil War.
and
anticommunist feeling surged in
and
aftermath of the First World War.
the
1970
civil rights movement, social change
The
opposition to the Vietnam War
and
the tumultuous 1960s.
marked
Political
or economic
Labour
Racially motivated
Vigilante
0
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Figure 9.6 Pattern of violent events in the United States, 1800–2000
gnral laws” (quotd in Spinny 2012).
at road trnds.
walth inquality.
precise mathematical formula.
(Goldstone quoted in Spinney 2012)
of limat hang and drought in East Afria.
271