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Losses in blue chip stocks reverse gains in equities<br />

By Peter Egwuatu<br />

The bounce back recorded in<br />

the stock market last week has<br />

been reversed following<br />

massive selloffs and losses in blue<br />

chip companies including, Airtel<br />

Africa, Dangote Cement and MTN<br />

Nigeria.<br />

The development significantly<br />

impacted the major market indices,<br />

with the Nigerian Exchange<br />

Limited, NGX All Share Index, ASI<br />

dropping 0.68 per cent Week-on-<br />

Week, WoW, to close at 43,968.75<br />

points from 44,269.18 points<br />

penultimate week.<br />

As a result, the ASI’s Year-to-Date<br />

(YtD) return fell to 2.93%, while<br />

another major indicator, the<br />

market capitalization, lost N161.54<br />

billion WoW to close at N23.95<br />

trillion against N24.112 trillion<br />

recorded penultimate week.<br />

Analysts have explained that the<br />

bearish run on the stock market in<br />

the past three months was driven by<br />

Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, rate<br />

hikes and others factors like 2023<br />

general election, insecurity and<br />

Foreign Exchange market<br />

instability.<br />

Analysis of the market last week<br />

showed that Airtel Africa lost 0.39%<br />

WoW, Dangote Cement (0.62%) and<br />

MTN Nigeria (2.04%) to keep the<br />

market in the red, eroding gains in<br />

First Bank Nigeria Holdings<br />

which moved up by 3.54%, Access<br />

Corporation (1.26%), and Geregu<br />

8.50%.<br />

Commenting, analysts at<br />

InvestData Consulting, stated : “We<br />

expect mixed sentiments to continue<br />

on portfolio repositioning and<br />

bargain hunting in the midst of<br />

expected macroeconomic data and<br />

election uncertainty, as investors are<br />

Vanguard, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2022 —21<br />

taking advantage of the low prices<br />

to reposition ahead Q3 GDP report<br />

and year end seasonality.<br />

“The next outcome of Monetary<br />

Policy Committee, MPC meeting<br />

could trigger the news-based market<br />

movements.”<br />

Commenting as well, analysts at<br />

Cowry Asset Research said, “Going<br />

into the new week, we expect the<br />

market to trade in the bullish region<br />

despite the absence of a major trigger<br />

that is likely to drive activities in the<br />

market for investors seeking alpha.<br />

However, we continue to advise<br />

investors to trade on companies’<br />

stocks with sound fundamentals<br />

and a positive outlook amid the<br />

macro-dynamics which remains<br />

a headwind.”<br />

Another investment house,<br />

Cordros Capital, while projecting<br />

on the market outlook for the<br />

week, stated: “We expect economic<br />

growth to remain pressured in the<br />

short-to-medium term, given the<br />

troika effects of (1) tight monetary<br />

conditions, (2) a fall in real<br />

household incomes, and (3) supply<br />

constraints exacerbated by the<br />

Russia-Ukraine conflict.<br />

Accordingly, the economy is on<br />

course for its fastest return to<br />

recession since the mid-1970s.”<br />

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2022<br />

Banks’ consumer loans decline 17%<br />

as CBN tightens money supply<br />

•Interest rates trending higher<br />

•Customers are now resisting loans —Bankers<br />

By Babajide Komolafe<br />

For the first time in<br />

three years, banks<br />

reduced consumer<br />

loans by 17 per cent (N400<br />

billion), in one month,<br />

following a decline in<br />

money supply triggered by<br />

the inflation-fighting<br />

measures of the Central<br />

Bank of Nigeria, CBN.<br />

Consumer loans are<br />

lendings by banks to one<br />

or more individuals for<br />

household, family, or other<br />

personal expenditures.<br />

Consumer loans have<br />

been rising in Nigeria<br />

since September 2019<br />

when the CBN introduced<br />

the minimum loan to<br />

deposit ratio (LDR) policy<br />

which stipulates that<br />

banks must give out 65<br />

per cent of their total<br />

deposits as loans. As a<br />

result, consumer loans<br />

rose steadily by 93 per cent<br />

to N2.33 trillion in May<br />

2022 from N1.21 trillion at<br />

the end of June 2019.<br />

However, Financial<br />

Vanguard findings from<br />

CBN’s data indicate that<br />

at the third year<br />

anniversary of the product<br />

in June 2022, the volume<br />

dropped by 17 per cent,<br />

month-on-month, to<br />

N1.93 trillion from N2.33<br />

trillion in May 2022.<br />

Analysis of the data<br />

further showed that during<br />

the month, banks slashed<br />

personal loans to<br />

customers by 19 per cent,<br />

MoM to N1.45 trillion<br />

from N1.79 trillion in May.<br />

The banks also slashed<br />

retail loans by 13 per cent,<br />

MoM to N483 billion from<br />

N554.8 billion.<br />

As a result of this<br />

development, Consumer<br />

loans recorded the first<br />

quarterly decline in the<br />

second quarter of 2022.<br />

According to the data<br />

Consumer loans fell in<br />

Q2’22 by 15.2 per cent,<br />

quarter-on-quarter, QoQ,<br />

to N1.93 trillion from<br />

N2.28 trillion in the first<br />

quarter of the year,<br />

Q1’22.<br />

Following the same trend,<br />

the share of consumer<br />

credit in total private sector<br />

credit shrank by 2.1<br />

percentage points to 7.2<br />

per cent, from 9.4 per cent<br />

in Q1’22.<br />

The decline in consumer<br />

loans in June was<br />

triggered by the decision of<br />

the CBN’s Monetary Policy<br />

Committee, MPC, on May<br />

24th 2022 to tighten<br />

money supply in a bid to<br />

curb the continued<br />

increase in the prices of<br />

goods and services which<br />

triggered a persistent rise<br />

in the inflation rate.<br />

Hence, the MPC on May<br />

24th raised the Monetary<br />

Policy Rate, MPR, which is<br />

the benchmark for interest<br />

rates in the country, by 150<br />

basis points to 13 per cent<br />

from 11 per cent.<br />

Since then the CBN has<br />

further raised the MPR by<br />

250 basis points to 15.5 per<br />

cent while it also tightened<br />

money supply by raising<br />

the Cash Reserve Ratio,<br />

CRR of banks to 32.5 per<br />

cent from 27.5 per cent,<br />

following continued rise in<br />

the inflation rate which rose<br />

to 20.77 per cent in<br />

September.<br />

Interest rates on the<br />

rise<br />

Consequently, banks<br />

raised lending rates, and<br />

the average prime lending<br />

rate rose by 370 basis<br />

points to 12.23 per cent in<br />

September from 11.96 per<br />

cent in May. Similarly,<br />

average maximum lending<br />

rate rose by 270 basis<br />

points to 28.06 per cent in<br />

September from 27.79 per<br />

cent in May.<br />

Confirming this<br />

development, a top<br />

management staff of a<br />

Tier-1 bank pleading<br />

anonymity, told Financial<br />

Vanguard that the interest<br />

rate charged by his bank<br />

on consumer loans was<br />

increased from 18 per cent<br />

prior to the MPR hike, to<br />

20 per cent after the hike.<br />

He added the bank had<br />

wanted to increase interest<br />

rate further to 22 per cent<br />

but the decision was<br />

postponed till another<br />

time.<br />

However, Financial<br />

Vanguard findings from<br />

the money market show<br />

that many banks have<br />

raised their lending rates to<br />

between 21 and 23 percent<br />

for prime lending, while<br />

other categories of lending<br />

are as high as 28 percent.<br />

The rise in interest rate,<br />

according to another Tier-<br />

1 bank branch manager,<br />

has affected demand for<br />

consumer loans. Speaking<br />

on condition of<br />

anonymity, she said some<br />

customers just refused to<br />

take new loans after<br />

concluding repayment of<br />

the old ones because they<br />

considered the interest rate<br />

prohibitive.<br />

She added that another<br />

factor is that banks have<br />

either stopped approving<br />

consumer loans or have<br />

raised interest rates for<br />

customers in some sectors<br />

of the economy or some<br />

companies considered<br />

not as vibrant as before.<br />

She said her bank, for<br />

example, has stopped<br />

approving loans to staff of<br />

a<br />

mobile<br />

telecommunications<br />

company because the<br />

company is considered to<br />

be struggling financially.

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